Down On The Farm

The Twins are committed to roughly $100 million payroll. Of that amount, $60 million or so is allocated to the hitters. $30 million or so is allocated to starting pitching. And roughly $10 million is allocated to the bullpen. (if you include Zumaya, then it was roughly $11.5 million to the bullpen this year) Assuming the lineup is satisfactory...(with Plouffe and Revere showing some competence) The Twins are now somewhat solid 1 through 7 in the lineup. Decent power...decent speed. Nice OBP potential. They could have the same or similar offense next year for the same amount ..roughly $60 million. The bullpen is now fairly solid and can be maintained next year and beyond for roughly $10 million. (Perkins gets a raise..they need to decide on Capps..to me, they need to keep Burton and Perkins The starting pitching is the issue: Pavano at $9 million, Baker at $6.5 mil, Liriano at $5.5 mill, Blackburn at $4.75 mill and Marquis at $3 mill did not yield the results Ryan wanted. So how does he modify? Well, he could go expensive on the top two...and cheap on the bottom two and in the middle on #3. For example, win the bids for two free agents ...like Colby Lewis and Marcum. Or Sanchez instead ...even if you spend more than you want, you still are using up only $20 million or so on two starters. Then sign Baker...even if he can't give you the innings in 2013. Sign him for a couple years. He won't get the big dollars he would have otherwise received. So maybe he is $5 million in 2013 and that amount escalates in 2014 and beyond. Then the last two spots go to Diamond and Hendriks...with Gibson in the wings...and Wolters. And you can compete in 2013 a lot better than this year..for roughly the same amount of total salary. Then in 2014, you offer, if it makes sense, Morneau arbitration...if he accepts, you have the same lineup. If he doesn't, you get a draft pick, replace his left handed power with Arcia and use the $14 million to either bolster the pen, or add another bat..or two. In 2015, you have Sano and Rosario likely arriving on the scene. So you can maintain offense for $60 million or less for serveral years. The issue will be can you get starting pitching at $30 million...and I think you can if you sign Lewis and Marcum (even if you slighly overpay)...plus Baker. Gibson should be "full season ready" by 2014...and you still have Diamond and Hendriks. No need to trade for pitching if you spend the $30 million better. But can you afford Greinke or Hamels? probably not. Your better bet is to spread it out over a few pitchers, but not bargain basement guys like Marquis.