cmb0252

I think you nailed it.

Interesting look at BA's top 100, which several of the guys made BA's list, success rate. For those too lazy to read here is the summary and it's good news: "I threw a lot of graphs out there, but the biggest takeaway is the second one: nearly 80% of the top 100 players in recent seasons were ranked in the top 100 by Baseball America. Of all the talk about failure rates (12% of prospects don't even get to the majors, only 69% fail to put up a career WAR over 10), the fine folks at BA are really good at finding the top players." Full article here: How Well Does the Baseball America Prospect Top 100 Estimate the Top 100 Future Players? - Beyond the Box Score

From Law on the pick: "Bickford throws hard, and there's a good chance he'll hit 100 mph at some point in the future, but he has a below-average breaking ball right now. If one of the college right-handers gets here, that would change the pick, but there's a strong industry sentiment as of Sunday night that Bickford -- who is getting a lot of attention after striking out 17 straight batters Saturday -- goes here." Here is BA's take. They have him at 26. I thought about Bickford at 18 and almost took him at 22, so I’m not passing him up at 26. His 90-96 mph fastball has tons of life, and along with his tall, lean frame earns him comparisons to Jered Weaver. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he goes about 10 picks higher than this on June He is very signable and might actually go under slot if he goes in the top 10.

While I agree I will play devil's advocate for fun. Do people know why Gray wasn't on many boards coming into the year even though he had possessed a mid+ 90's fastball since HS? He had a history of having a poor work ethic which led to poor results on the field. He was constantly out of shape which led to inconsistent mechanics. Can he keep up the effort to stay in shape? Can he develop a change up? Unlike Appel there just isn't a track record to know for sure. Ok, no more devils advocate. I love Gray and have him #1 on my board. I still don't believe he will fall to #4 but if he does I will be bouncing off the walls. Go Twins!

And I'm OK with that. There has been so much more draft discussion on the forums this year and it has been great. Hopefully we can keep up all the great discussion till draft day. Everyone has done a great job getting information out be it via tweeter, inside sources, or just using the inter web.

A few scout notes on regional player from Christopher Crawford: A NL scout on Gray's performance: “There were some less-than-ideal things, but some encouraging moments as well,” an NL scout said. “It’s good to see him bounce back from the early struggles. Coastal Carolina has a good lineup and they will make you battle, and I think he did that [Friday]. With that being said, that pitch count is pretty exorbitant, no matter if he isn’t pitching for another week or another year.” An AL scout on Stanek: "You have to throw strikes if you’re going to be a top-10 pick, and [stanek] just doesn’t do that often enough,” an AL scout said. “He’s got a plus fastball and a plus curve, but a guy with 40 [on the 20-80 scouting scale] command and no changeup? That’s a reliever, if you ask me.” NL East scout on Bryant: "I’d certainly consider [taking him first],” an NL East scout said. “This all depends on cost, of course. But I don’t know why you wouldn’t consider the best bat in the class with the first pick. If [Mark] Appel or Gray were [stephen] Strasburg then it’s not even debatable, but they’re not. If you take any other bat with the No. 1 overall pick, it’s a mistake.” AL scout on Moran: "I don’t see it,” an AL East executive said. “He’s a nice player, he’s got one of the better hit tools in this draft, but I don’t see any way you can take him with the first pick over guys like Appel and Bryant and Gray. I implicitly understand the thought process of signing him for half the allotted fee or whatever Houston and his people work out, but it would be two years in a row of not getting the best talent on the board. And in this case, I think not even one of the top three talents available. I’m not sure if that’s good process” If you have insider you can see several other scout quotes on the draft and notes on their regional performances from CC. Link below: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=729

Law, BA, and CC putting out mocks today. Busy draft day! Hopefully we get some more because I getting excited about the draft. So close!

I found Stewart falling so far very odd.

An article from Mackey- Twins Notes: MLB draft 'is the most important time of the year' 1500espn.com Mobile Few interesting comments. Here is one from Ryan: "My role would be to take the blame when we don't do well, but I also get the praise when we do well. That's not fair," Ryan said. "I shouldn't get the praise when we get a good selection. Joe Mauer (in 2001) -- well that ought to go to (VP of player personnel) Mike Radcliffe. When we take a guy that doesn't pan out, all the GMs take the fall -- which it should be. We get all of the praise, and we should get all the criticism. That's my role. ..." And one from Johnson on drafting multi sport high school players: "If he's a dual-sport guy I think you can get a better read on makeup when you watch them in another sport," Johnson said. "You see a guy play basketball or football and you can see how he reacts in different situations. ... So I've always kind of believed in that, right or wrong. I remember as an area scout watching CC Sabathia play football and basketball, and we got a pretty good makeup read on him back then. ...

Oh definitely. As has been noted above some experts feel there could be a run on bats in the late first round because of it being a week hitting class. Especially in the MI positions. Also, this is a very deep catching class so the Twins don't have to take one early. I just love Denney's bat.

I'm starting to hope Denney keeps falling. Catchers often do. It does sound like the Reds (two picks before or second round pick) and the Yankees (three picks before our second round pick) are in on him though. I prefer Denney > Boldt any day.

The Twins love toolsy outfielders so there must be something there they don't like. What? No clue. Before the injury he was a top 20 talent. Once again, as they showed last year with Mitch Brown, they won't just take a kid because he is local.

This is his first year back from TJ surgery so he is kind of a wild card. Has a fastball that sits in the 93-96 range but has 98 before. Due to TJ surgery his secondary pitches are way behind which make some people think he might be a relief pitcher long term. If his change up/slider develop he could be a solid prospect.

While getting Manaea in the second round would be amazing there is no possible way I see that happening. Even if it did I don't see the money to sign him unless we go McGuire #4 under slot. If Manaea is signable plenty of teams in front of us have better leverage to get him. I completely agree that this is the perfect draft to load up on prep stars but in the pass that hasn't been the Twins MO. As Jeremy's draft break down shows they have always favored college pitchers to HS pitchers. While this draft is deep in college pitchers most are low ceiling high floor guys.

This draft is full of HS LHPers so it would be nice to grab one of those at 43. I still think 43 might be the best spot in the draft to grab a high upside bat be it Boldt or someone who falls out of 1st round.

Haha, I told my girl friend to make plans with her friends so I can drink and watch the draft with a few of my buddies. While it is exciting to draft this high because of the impact talent I'm ready for drafting in the 20s again.

More and more I think about it I doubt Boldt will be the choice here. The most likely first round pick out comes are currently Stewart and McGuire. Experts feel to sign Boldt in the second round you are going to have to go over slot and I'm not sure you will have any extra slot money if you go Stewart first. With McGuire you obviously have extra money but would the Twins go two HS position players to start the draft? I doubt it. I'm starting to feel it is going to be a safe, low upside arm at #43. Thurman, Windle, Eades, or one of the other soft tossers .

I preferred him to the college relief pitchers they took right before him. He would have been good 2nd round value but at the same time there were several players I preferred to him at the Twins spots. I think I'm the only person here that doesn't give local kids bonus points. I was born in Minnesota and it clearly didn't help me be a better baseball player.

The Twins were linked to Berrios well before draft day. A lot of experts thought they would draft Mitch Brown too because of the MN ties. Clearly they didn't.

Adding a few more Twins guesses. #78- Andrew Mitchell (TCU)- while both Law/BA have him in their top 50 I just have a gut feeling he will fall. After the Twins draft last year he screams their type. Bard clone. #110- Dace Kime (Louisville)- just like Mitchell above he was mostly a relief pitcher in college but when he started he looked solid. #140- DJ Snelten (Minnesota)- Big lefty local kid who could move fasdt as a relief pitcher or try to develop a third pitch and be a starter. #170- Brian Navarreto (Arlington County Day HS)- Twins brass said they will take a catcher and here is their guy.

I'm not a big fan of either of those picks. While they fit needs they are both low on upside IMO and I'm sucker for upside! Boom or bust!

IMO this is actually a more interesting pick than #4. We are getting a top 10 talent no matter what at #4 but #43 can make the draft. There will be plenty of talent remaining for the second round. It would be nice to have more discussion about this pick.

Hunter, Boldt, and Reed are all names the have actually been linked to the Twins from sources. I would be fine with any of them. Personally I guessed Boldt on my challenge forum, not because of the MN link, but because this draft is weak in bats. The Twins can get arms in the later rounds but if they want a good bat they better not wait to long. A few names to look out for: If the Twins take Stewart at #4 they might want to take a safe pick. Windle(the OMG he went to UM pick), Thurman, and Eades are all "safe" low upside college arms that might be there. The draft is weak in SS so lesser talent is raising to the top and if you want one you better get one early. There is a lot of talk that Tim Anderson, Hunter Dozier, and Travis Demerritte won't make it out of the first. Oscar Mercado and Tyler O'Neill might be there. The Twins have said they are going to take a catcher at some point in the draft. Lucky for the Twins this is a very deep class for catchers and if one falls to the Twins at #43 I wouldn't be surprised if they took one. Denney or Cuiffo would be steals at 43 but I highly doubt they make it that. As for HS arms there are a butt load of them and I have no idea who the Twins prefer. I do still find it hard to believe if the Twins take Stewart at #4 they will take another HS pitcher at #43. If you look at the Twins supplemental picks last year two names stick out to me. J.O. = Kyle Serrano. Highly advanced super young HS arm but is short. Bard= Andrew Mitchell (TCU). Mostly been a college reliever but when he did start was solid. Has plenty of "stuff". Who I want the Twins to take? As I said up top this is a super weak draft bat wise. If they are going to get a good do it at #43 with Boldt, Mercado, or a catcher if they fall.

Law said he heard the Cubs higher ups love Appel and that's why he has him there.

I understand Appel being need but how is he BPA? Most experts saw Buxton as BPA then and most think he is now. It has actually been well documented that most experts still rather have Buxton to Appel. Bixton was picked because he was the best player in the draft. Plain and simple.