Eric R Pleiss

You guys are doing this all wrong. Combine the pizza and the player. Favorite Twins player and pizza toppings - Rene Tosonions and Lenny Green peppers.

Enjoyed the show, dudes. Technical issues made the last 20 minutes or so pretty brutal, as I couldn't understand anything that Robot Jeremy was saying. But the rest was great. Can't wait to hear your thoughts on the team once Spring Training begins.

Terry Ryan (and Bill Smith before him, and Terry again before that) often receives a lot of the praise when the team does well, and a lot of disdain when the team does poorly. You are the man who puts not only the GM, but the rest of the front office staff in a place to be successful (or not). What are the things that you're doing as team president, other than putting the right people in place, to help building a winning culture in Minnesota?

Oldguy, I'll watch games with you any day from any bar within 30 minutes of Minneapolis. But North Dakota is a bit too far for just any day, I'd need advance notice.

Moar hangouts!

I had a ton of fun recording this episode. Finally figuring this podcast thing out.

#RailShots

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1983-Talk-to-Contact-Episode-43-Kyle-Gibson-s-Debut

Episode 43 of the Twins baseball podcast, Talk To Contact (@TalkToContact), is now available for download via iTunes or by clicking here. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Gibson1.jpgKyle Gibson, Spring Training 2013. Photo Credit: Betsy Bissen Eric and Cody talk recent Twins happenings, including a struggling bullpen, an awful PJ Walters, and whatever it is that is going on with some Twins Minor Leaguers in the Futures Game. The two are then joined by Seth Stohs from TwinsDaily.com to talk about all things Twins Minor League and what fans can expect from Kyle Gibson as he makes his MLB debut on Saturday. After the break the boys talk beer, baseball, and the news. 92 minutes of chatter. You can follow Cody on Twitter (@NoDakTwinsFan) or read his writing at NoDakTwinsFan. You can follow Paul on Twitter (@BaseballPirate) or read his writing at Puckett’s Pond. And of course, you can find me on Twitter (@ERolfPleiss) and read my writing at Knuckleballs! - ERolfPleiss ​Originally published at www.KnuckleballsBlog.com

Episode 43 of the Twins baseball podcast, Talk To Contact (@TalkToContact), is now available for download via iTunes or by clicking here. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Gibson1.jpgKyle Gibson, Spring Training 2013. Photo Credit: Betsy Bissen Eric and Cody talk recent Twins happenings, including a struggling bullpen, an awful PJ Walters, and whatever it is that is going on with some Twins Minor Leaguers in the Futures Game. The two are then joined by Seth Stohs from TwinsDaily.com to talk about all things Twins Minor League and what fans can expect from Kyle Gibson as he makes his MLB debut on Saturday. After the break the boys talk beer, baseball, and the news. 92 minutes of chatter. You can follow Cody on Twitter (@NoDakTwinsFan) or read his writing at NoDakTwinsFan. You can follow Paul on Twitter (@BaseballPirate) or read his writing at Puckett’s Pond. And of course, you can find me on Twitter (@ERolfPleiss) and read my writing at Knuckleballs! - ERolfPleiss ​Originally published at www.KnuckleballsBlog.com

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1968-Don-t-Blame-Those-Damn-Yankees

The Twins, according to legend, are afraid of the Yankees. And you know what, after some quick post-season exits at the hands of the Yankees, that is a pretty easy narrative to build. Add in the fact that the Twins have struggled to beat the Yankees in the regular season, despite the Twins having fairly successful regular season teams for most of the 2000’s, and you begin to see how that narrative continues to grow. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Santana.jpg Johan Santana In the 11 years between 2000 and 2010 the Twins compiled a .537 winning percentage, going 957-826. During that same span the Twins went 25-57 against the New York Yankees, a .325 winning percentage. Take out the 77 games against the Yankees and the Twins are 163 games above .500 instead of just 131. That is a significant bump. During that same time period the Twins played the Yankees four times in the post-season, managing to win just two games, while losing 12, swept in 2009 and 2010. That brings the Twins’ 11-year record against the Yankees to 27-69 (.281). That is bad, almost as bad as the 2003 Detroit Tigers (43-119), the worst team of the last 50 years. During that same 11-year span the Yankees were 1060-718, only had a losing record against one American League team (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 45-54), and won two World Series titles (and losing in the World Series two other times). So clearly the Yankees were a better team than the Twins over that same time period, but the Yankees’ .596 winning percentage is not so much larger than the Twins’ .537 that you would expect the Twins fail so miserably against the Yankees during the span. Assuming each team’s regular season winning percentages represented their true talent over those 11 years, the Yankees should have beaten the Twins only about 53% of the time, not the nearly 72% clip they had over that same span. So what gives? Why did the Yankees perform so well against the Minnesota Twins, especially in the post season? For me, it comes down to roster construction, and specifically the postseason pitching rotations, where teams often turn to only their top three or four pitchers. 2003 [TABLE] Game (score, winner) Twins (starting pitcher) Yankees (starting pitcher) [TD=width: 213]1 (3-1 Twins) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Johan Santana [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Mike Mussina [/TD] [TD=width: 213]2 (1-4 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Brad Radke [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Andy Pettitte [/TD] [TD=width: 213]3 (1-3 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Kyle Lohse [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Roger Clemens [/TD] [TD=width: 213]4 (1-8 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Johan Santana [/TD] [TD=width: 213]David Wells [/TD] [/TABLE] The Twins, with a lack of depth in their starting rotation chose to go back to their ace on four days of rest, facing elimination in Game 4. The Yankees, alternatively, felt strong enough to run out David Wells (4.14 ERA, 4.3K/9, essentially a league average pitcher in 2003 despite his 15-7 W/L record) knowing that should they be pushed to a decisive Game 5 they could turn to Mike Mussina, their ace, against Brad Radke (4.49 ERA and a pitch to contact friendly contact rate of 82.2%). So while you would certainly expect the Twins to score more than 3 runs over their final 3 games in this series, outside of Santana the Twins certainly did not have a rotation that could even dream about keeping up with New York (and remember that the Kyle Lohse of 2003 (4.61 ERA) is a far cry from the pitcher he has been over the past three seasons). 2004http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif [TABLE] Game (score, winner) Twins (starting pitcher) Yankees (starting pitcher) [TD=width: 213]1 (2-0 Twins) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Santana [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Mussina [/TD] [TD=width: 213]2 (6-7 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Radke [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Jon Lieber [/TD] [TD=width: 213]3 (8-4 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Carlos Silva [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Kevin Brown [/TD] [TD=width: 213]4 (5-6 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Santana [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Javier Vazquez [/TD] [/TABLE] The Twins essentially ran the same group of pitchers out there again the following year in 2004, except inserting Silva for Lohse (and Lohse ended up taking the loss in game four, appearing in relief as the game stretched to extra innings). Silva’s 4.21 ERA looks bad against the numbers that pitchers are putting up today, but amidst the steroid era scoring environment and the high-run environment of the Metrodome, it graded out as an ERA+ of 112. Kyle Lohse was really the team’s only other option there, but with an ERA north of 5 that year, he certainly did not look like a postseason starter. The Yankees, on the other hand, had almost a completely new staff. Still anchored by Mike Mussina, this staff had Lieber and Vazquez making one year pitstops in New York, along with Brown who joined the Yankees in the twilight of his 19 year MLB career. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/MoralesNathan2009.jpg Joe Nathan (36) This time the starting pitching was not as big of an issue as the bullpen and a lack of timely hits from the Twins regulars. The Twins won Game 1 on a great performance from Santana, and then proceeded to lose Game 2, and Game 4 in extra innings after subpar performances from the consistently reliable Joe Nathan. The Twins should have won every game in this series with the exception of Game 3 (which was a blowout until the Twins scored 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth). A little bad luck and some untimely hits cost this team the series, but after a similar result in 2003, that bad luck started to look more like a Twins inability to defeat the Bronx Bombers. 2009 [TABLE] Game (score, winner) Twins (starting pitcher) Yankees (starting pitcher) [TD=width: 213]1 (2-7 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Brian Duensing [/TD] [TD=width: 213]CC Sabathia [/TD] [TD=width: 213]2 (3-4 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Nick Blackburn [/TD] [TD=width: 213]A.J. Burnett [/TD] [TD=width: 213]3 (1-4 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Carl Pavano [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Pettitte [/TD] [/TABLE] After being swept out of the postseason by the Oakland Athletics in 2006, the Twins stumbled in 2007 and just missed the postseason in 2008 losing game 163, but they were back in the postseason once again in 2009 to take on the Yankees. My initial thought when looking at the Twins starters: LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/BakerGroundBallReaction.jpgScott Baker I was going to say that things were probably not as bad as they looked, but Brian Duensing was the Twins’ only starting pitcher with an ERA under 4 (3.64), and he only made nine starts that season (but he was sparkly good as a starter in those 9 games, pitching 52.2 innings to the tune of a 2.73 ERA despite just a 5.6K/9). It seems ridiculous that the Twins started Duensing in Game 1, but the Twins burned Scott Baker in Game 163, along with half of their bullpen, the day before. Still, Blackburn might have been their best option in Game 1, and that alone is laughable in 2013. This was a Twins team that snuck into the playoffs and faced just about the most lopsided pitching matchups I can imagine. The Twins were at a special disadvantage as Joe Mauer, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel were their main offensive weapons, and as left handed hitters, all were on the wrong side of the platoon against Sabathia and Pettitte. Hard to imagine the Twins winning a game in their series, even if the two teams were offensively similar (and they were not, the Yankees scored almost 100 more runs than the Twins in 2009). Maybe a little tough luck to be swept, but the Twins had the worst of it in every matchup. 2010 [TABLE] Game (score, winner) Twins (starting pitcher) Yankees (starting pitcher) [TD=width: 213]1 (4-6 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Francisco Liriano [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Sabathia [/TD] [TD=width: 213]2 (2-5 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Pavano [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Pettitte [/TD] [TD=width: 213]3 (1-6 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Duensing [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Phil Hughes [/TD] [/TABLE] For me, this was probably the most frustrating series against the Yankees. Maybe I do not even have to go that far, Game 1 of this series was probably one of the most frustrating games I have watched as a Twins fan. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/LirianoPitch.jpgFrancisco Liriano The Twins went into this series with the Yankees with home field advantage, playing in front of sold out crowds at brand spankin’ new Target Field. Twins euphoria had likely not been higher since 1991. Liriano was pitching well again (of course he was, it was an even numbered year) and the Twins staked him to an early 3-0 lead and Liriano was cruising through the first five innings. Then in the sixth inning, following a Nick Swisher strike out, Mark Teixeira doubled, and then advanced on a wild pitch. Liriano walked the next batter (Alex Rodriguez) and as a fan you started to get that feeling that the Yankees were going to blow things open. They did. Liriano fell apart and the Yankees grabbed the lead with a four run inning. At that point, just about everyone in Twins territory knew that the game, and ultimately the series, was over (or at least it surely seemed that way). The Twins once again struggled against left handed pitching and in the final game of the series Brian Duensing could not make it out of the fourth inning and the Twins lost to the Yankees once again. While I felt cheated in 2004 when the Yankees thoroughly defeated the Twins in the other three post season series, largely because of a lack of starting pitching on the Twins end. Sure, the Yankees had some great arms, but the Twins never had more than one pitcher that might be considered an above average postseason pitcher, and in 2009 they did not have any. Hate on the Yankees all you want, the real culprit here is a lack of starting pitchers. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/yankee20sweep3.jpg Image from M.T.'s Blog, http://matt7.mlblogs.com/ "Originally published at www.knuckbleballsblog.com"

The Twins, according to legend, are afraid of the Yankees. And you know what, after some quick post-season exits at the hands of the Yankees, that is a pretty easy narrative to build. Add in the fact that the Twins have struggled to beat the Yankees in the regular season, despite the Twins having fairly successful regular season teams for most of the 2000’s, and you begin to see how that narrative continues to grow. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Santana.jpg Johan Santana In the 11 years between 2000 and 2010 the Twins compiled a .537 winning percentage, going 957-826. During that same span the Twins went 25-57 against the New York Yankees, a .325 winning percentage. Take out the 77 games against the Yankees and the Twins are 163 games above .500 instead of just 131. That is a significant bump. During that same time period the Twins played the Yankees four times in the post-season, managing to win just two games, while losing 12, swept in 2009 and 2010. That brings the Twins’ 11-year record against the Yankees to 27-69 (.281). That is bad, almost as bad as the 2003 Detroit Tigers (43-119), the worst team of the last 50 years. During that same 11-year span the Yankees were 1060-718, only had a losing record against one American League team (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 45-54), and won two World Series titles (and losing in the World Series two other times). So clearly the Yankees were a better team than the Twins over that same time period, but the Yankees’ .596 winning percentage is not so much larger than the Twins’ .537 that you would expect the Twins fail so miserably against the Yankees during the span. Assuming each team’s regular season winning percentages represented their true talent over those 11 years, the Yankees should have beaten the Twins only about 53% of the time, not the nearly 72% clip they had over that same span. So what gives? Why did the Yankees perform so well against the Minnesota Twins, especially in the post season? For me, it comes down to roster construction, and specifically the postseason pitching rotations, where teams often turn to only their top three or four pitchers. 2003 [TABLE] Game (score, winner) Twins (starting pitcher) Yankees (starting pitcher) [TD=width: 213]1 (3-1 Twins) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Johan Santana [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Mike Mussina [/TD] [TD=width: 213]2 (1-4 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Brad Radke [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Andy Pettitte [/TD] [TD=width: 213]3 (1-3 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Kyle Lohse [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Roger Clemens [/TD] [TD=width: 213]4 (1-8 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Johan Santana [/TD] [TD=width: 213]David Wells [/TD] [/TABLE] The Twins, with a lack of depth in their starting rotation chose to go back to their ace on four days of rest, facing elimination in Game 4. The Yankees, alternatively, felt strong enough to run out David Wells (4.14 ERA, 4.3K/9, essentially a league average pitcher in 2003 despite his 15-7 W/L record) knowing that should they be pushed to a decisive Game 5 they could turn to Mike Mussina, their ace, against Brad Radke (4.49 ERA and a pitch to contact friendly contact rate of 82.2%). So while you would certainly expect the Twins to score more than 3 runs over their final 3 games in this series, outside of Santana the Twins certainly did not have a rotation that could even dream about keeping up with New York (and remember that the Kyle Lohse of 2003 (4.61 ERA) is a far cry from the pitcher he has been over the past three seasons). 2004http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif [TABLE] Game (score, winner) Twins (starting pitcher) Yankees (starting pitcher) [TD=width: 213]1 (2-0 Twins) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Santana [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Mussina [/TD] [TD=width: 213]2 (6-7 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Radke [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Jon Lieber [/TD] [TD=width: 213]3 (8-4 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Carlos Silva [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Kevin Brown [/TD] [TD=width: 213]4 (5-6 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Santana [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Javier Vazquez [/TD] [/TABLE] The Twins essentially ran the same group of pitchers out there again the following year in 2004, except inserting Silva for Lohse (and Lohse ended up taking the loss in game four, appearing in relief as the game stretched to extra innings). Silva’s 4.21 ERA looks bad against the numbers that pitchers are putting up today, but amidst the steroid era scoring environment and the high-run environment of the Metrodome, it graded out as an ERA+ of 112. Kyle Lohse was really the team’s only other option there, but with an ERA north of 5 that year, he certainly did not look like a postseason starter. The Yankees, on the other hand, had almost a completely new staff. Still anchored by Mike Mussina, this staff had Lieber and Vazquez making one year pitstops in New York, along with Brown who joined the Yankees in the twilight of his 19 year MLB career. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/MoralesNathan2009.jpg Joe Nathan (36) This time the starting pitching was not as big of an issue as the bullpen and a lack of timely hits from the Twins regulars. The Twins won Game 1 on a great performance from Santana, and then proceeded to lose Game 2, and Game 4 in extra innings after subpar performances from the consistently reliable Joe Nathan. The Twins should have won every game in this series with the exception of Game 3 (which was a blowout until the Twins scored 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth). A little bad luck and some untimely hits cost this team the series, but after a similar result in 2003, that bad luck started to look more like a Twins inability to defeat the Bronx Bombers. 2009 [TABLE] Game (score, winner) Twins (starting pitcher) Yankees (starting pitcher) [TD=width: 213]1 (2-7 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Brian Duensing [/TD] [TD=width: 213]CC Sabathia [/TD] [TD=width: 213]2 (3-4 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Nick Blackburn [/TD] [TD=width: 213]A.J. Burnett [/TD] [TD=width: 213]3 (1-4 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Carl Pavano [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Pettitte [/TD] [/TABLE] After being swept out of the postseason by the Oakland Athletics in 2006, the Twins stumbled in 2007 and just missed the postseason in 2008 losing game 163, but they were back in the postseason once again in 2009 to take on the Yankees. My initial thought when looking at the Twins starters: LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/BakerGroundBallReaction.jpgScott Baker I was going to say that things were probably not as bad as they looked, but Brian Duensing was the Twins’ only starting pitcher with an ERA under 4 (3.64), and he only made nine starts that season (but he was sparkly good as a starter in those 9 games, pitching 52.2 innings to the tune of a 2.73 ERA despite just a 5.6K/9). It seems ridiculous that the Twins started Duensing in Game 1, but the Twins burned Scott Baker in Game 163, along with half of their bullpen, the day before. Still, Blackburn might have been their best option in Game 1, and that alone is laughable in 2013. This was a Twins team that snuck into the playoffs and faced just about the most lopsided pitching matchups I can imagine. The Twins were at a special disadvantage as Joe Mauer, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel were their main offensive weapons, and as left handed hitters, all were on the wrong side of the platoon against Sabathia and Pettitte. Hard to imagine the Twins winning a game in their series, even if the two teams were offensively similar (and they were not, the Yankees scored almost 100 more runs than the Twins in 2009). Maybe a little tough luck to be swept, but the Twins had the worst of it in every matchup. 2010 [TABLE] Game (score, winner) Twins (starting pitcher) Yankees (starting pitcher) [TD=width: 213]1 (4-6 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Francisco Liriano [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Sabathia [/TD] [TD=width: 213]2 (2-5 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Pavano [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Pettitte [/TD] [TD=width: 213]3 (1-6 Yankees) [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Duensing [/TD] [TD=width: 213]Phil Hughes [/TD] [/TABLE] For me, this was probably the most frustrating series against the Yankees. Maybe I do not even have to go that far, Game 1 of this series was probably one of the most frustrating games I have watched as a Twins fan. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/LirianoPitch.jpgFrancisco Liriano The Twins went into this series with the Yankees with home field advantage, playing in front of sold out crowds at brand spankin’ new Target Field. Twins euphoria had likely not been higher since 1991. Liriano was pitching well again (of course he was, it was an even numbered year) and the Twins staked him to an early 3-0 lead and Liriano was cruising through the first five innings. Then in the sixth inning, following a Nick Swisher strike out, Mark Teixeira doubled, and then advanced on a wild pitch. Liriano walked the next batter (Alex Rodriguez) and as a fan you started to get that feeling that the Yankees were going to blow things open. They did. Liriano fell apart and the Yankees grabbed the lead with a four run inning. At that point, just about everyone in Twins territory knew that the game, and ultimately the series, was over (or at least it surely seemed that way). The Twins once again struggled against left handed pitching and in the final game of the series Brian Duensing could not make it out of the fourth inning and the Twins lost to the Yankees once again. While I felt cheated in 2004 when the Yankees thoroughly defeated the Twins in the other three post season series, largely because of a lack of starting pitching on the Twins end. Sure, the Yankees had some great arms, but the Twins never had more than one pitcher that might be considered an above average postseason pitcher, and in 2009 they did not have any. Hate on the Yankees all you want, the real culprit here is a lack of starting pitchers. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/yankee20sweep3.jpg Image from M.T.'s Blog, http://matt7.mlblogs.com/ "Originally published at www.knuckbleballsblog.com"

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1418-Opening-Day-Starter

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1416-Eddie-Leon-The-Twins-First-Draft-Pick

Originally published at KnuckleballsBlog.com With the Twins likely done making moves this winter, and with Spring Training games just around the corner, I thought it would be a good time to put my predictive powers to the test and try and suss-out the Twins’ plan for the Opening Day starter. With the Twins opening the season at home this year, the Opening Day start has a little more significance than it has the past couple of years when the Twins started the season on the road. The Twins have not started the year at home since 2009, and the last Twins pitcher to win the Opening Day game at home was Livan Hernandez in 2008 against the Los Angeles Angels. In fact, the Twins haven’t won an Opening Day game since 2008, working on an 0-4 streak losing 6-1 in 2009 against the Mariners, 6-3 against the Angels in 2010, 11-3 in 2011 against the Blue Jays, and 4-2 a year ago in Camden Yards against the Orioles. An Opening Day win would be a nice change of pace. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/opening-day-optimism.jpg Since the Twins moved to Minnesota to start the 1961 season, Opening Day starters are just 14-25, with 12 no decisions. Not exactly a great track record on baseball’s biggest day, but with names like Camilo Pascual, Jim Kaat, Jim Perry, Bert Blyleven, Frank Viola, Brad Radke, and Johan Santana, the Twins’ Opening Day starter has historically been some of the most beloved players in Twins history. Looking over the current 40-man roster, and some non-roster invites to Spring Training, there are several players who have a shot at being the Opening Day starter. I’ll rank them from least likely to start to most likely to start on Opening Day. Rafael Perez (1% chance to start Opening Day) – Perez was just signed to a Minor League deal with the club a week ago. He’s spent his entire big league career working out of the bullpen, and has not had a K/9 above 6 since 2008. He has put up strong ERAs every year except 2009, but with the declining strike out rates and a ballooning walk rate, his ERA has been propped up by an above average strand rate. Perez has an uphill battle to even make the team as a left-handed reliever, and an even tougher climb into the starting rotation. Rich Harden (4%) – Like Perez, Harden is with the Twins on a Minor League deal. Harden has not pitched in the big leagues since 2011, and while he has had a consistently above average strike out rate, he has not been an above average pitcher since 2009. There is some question as to whether or not Harden’s shoulder can stand up to the high pitch counts associated with starting, so there is a pretty decent chance that if he makes the team at all, the Twins would prefer that he work out of the bullpen to keep him healthy for the entire season. I like him more than Perez because Harden has a track record as a starting pitcher, and because the Twins are so desperately in need of strike outs, but he is still a long shot to even break camp with the Twins. Mike Pelfrey (7%) – Pelfrey signed a 1-year deal with the Twins this offseason hoping to rebuild his value coming off of Tommy-John surgery. Pelfrey is still not a ful year removed from surgery, so there are concerns about his ability to be ready to start the season in the rotation. Unlike Harden and Perez, if he is healthy, Pelfrey has a guaranteed spot in the rotation. If I was confident that Pelfrey would be healthy when the Twins break camp I would have him higher, but it is early in camp and I anticipate that he will end up needing an extra few weeks go get all the way up to speed. Liam Hendriks (10%) – Hendriks is a fringe candidate to make the 25-man roster out of Spring Training, but with questions about health among several of the arms ahead of him on the pecking order, he is likely to be the next man in if any one of the projected five starters are not ready to start the season. Even a healthy Liam Hendriks is a long shot to take the ball for the Twins on Opening Day as Ron Gardenhire usually likes to reward his veterans. Kevin Correia (12%) – Poor Kevin Correia has been written off since before the ink was dry on his shiny-new 2-year $10 million dollar contract. Correia certainly is not the type of pitcher that would typically get the ball on baseball’s biggest stage, but the Twins seem to like his veteran leadership and clubhouse presence, something that went a long way forCarl Pavano (who started back-to-back Openers in 2011 and 2012). Pavano had almost a year and a half of starts with the Twins under his belt prior to taking the mound on Opening Day, but with no other experienced veterans on the roster, Correia might end up pitching by default. Kyle Gibson (13%) – The Twins seem dead set on starting the year with Aaron Hicks in center field field despite not having any Major League experience. If the Twins are trying to build excitement in 2013 and invite fans to buy into the Twins future, Gibson could wind up pitching on Opening Day to help build momentum toward 2014 and beyond. But like Pelfry, Gibson is coming off of Tommy-John surgery, and unlike Pelfrey, Gibson figures heavily into the Twins future plans, so they are likely to treat him with kid gloves. The Twins are looking to limit his inning totals in 2013, so putting him on the mound from Day 1 does not do a lot to aid that effort. Scott Diamond (15%) – After playing the role of savior for the 2012 Twins, Diamond was the overwhelming favorite to take the ball on Opening Day. If Diamond is healthy he will undoubtedly be pitching on April 1st. But Diamond had surgery in December to remove some bone chips from his throwing elbow and is reported to be progressing through his rehab slower than anticipated. There is still an outside chance that Diamond is healthy when the Twins open 2013, but the Twins want Diamond healthy long-term, so if any question marks remain about his health, expect the Twins to take things nice and slow. Vance Worley (38%) – Vance Worley seems to have become the Twins de facto Opening Day starter because there really is not anyone else with a real shot at keeping him from it. He has a lot of things working in his favor; he is healthy, he is young and exciting, has a chance to be a long-term part of the Twins ballclub, and he is not Kevin Correia (which is to say he is not old, ineffective, and overpaid). When the Twins traded away Ben Revere for Worley and Trevor May I would not have though Worley had any shot to pitch on Opening Day, but he seems to be the last man standing. -ERolfPleiss Read more about the Minnesota Twins at KnuckleballsBlog.com, including Eddie Rosario Turning Heads.

Originally published at KnuckleballsBlog.com With the Twins likely done making moves this winter, and with Spring Training games just around the corner, I thought it would be a good time to put my predictive powers to the test and try and suss-out the Twins’ plan for the Opening Day starter. With the Twins opening the season at home this year, the Opening Day start has a little more significance than it has the past couple of years when the Twins started the season on the road. The Twins have not started the year at home since 2009, and the last Twins pitcher to win the Opening Day game at home was Livan Hernandez in 2008 against the Los Angeles Angels. In fact, the Twins haven’t won an Opening Day game since 2008, working on an 0-4 streak losing 6-1 in 2009 against the Mariners, 6-3 against the Angels in 2010, 11-3 in 2011 against the Blue Jays, and 4-2 a year ago in Camden Yards against the Orioles. An Opening Day win would be a nice change of pace. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/opening-day-optimism.jpg Since the Twins moved to Minnesota to start the 1961 season, Opening Day starters are just 14-25, with 12 no decisions. Not exactly a great track record on baseball’s biggest day, but with names like Camilo Pascual, Jim Kaat, Jim Perry, Bert Blyleven, Frank Viola, Brad Radke, and Johan Santana, the Twins’ Opening Day starter has historically been some of the most beloved players in Twins history. Looking over the current 40-man roster, and some non-roster invites to Spring Training, there are several players who have a shot at being the Opening Day starter. I’ll rank them from least likely to start to most likely to start on Opening Day. Rafael Perez (1% chance to start Opening Day) – Perez was just signed to a Minor League deal with the club a week ago. He’s spent his entire big league career working out of the bullpen, and has not had a K/9 above 6 since 2008. He has put up strong ERAs every year except 2009, but with the declining strike out rates and a ballooning walk rate, his ERA has been propped up by an above average strand rate. Perez has an uphill battle to even make the team as a left-handed reliever, and an even tougher climb into the starting rotation. Rich Harden (4%) – Like Perez, Harden is with the Twins on a Minor League deal. Harden has not pitched in the big leagues since 2011, and while he has had a consistently above average strike out rate, he has not been an above average pitcher since 2009. There is some question as to whether or not Harden’s shoulder can stand up to the high pitch counts associated with starting, so there is a pretty decent chance that if he makes the team at all, the Twins would prefer that he work out of the bullpen to keep him healthy for the entire season. I like him more than Perez because Harden has a track record as a starting pitcher, and because the Twins are so desperately in need of strike outs, but he is still a long shot to even break camp with the Twins. Mike Pelfrey (7%) – Pelfrey signed a 1-year deal with the Twins this offseason hoping to rebuild his value coming off of Tommy-John surgery. Pelfrey is still not a ful year removed from surgery, so there are concerns about his ability to be ready to start the season in the rotation. Unlike Harden and Perez, if he is healthy, Pelfrey has a guaranteed spot in the rotation. If I was confident that Pelfrey would be healthy when the Twins break camp I would have him higher, but it is early in camp and I anticipate that he will end up needing an extra few weeks go get all the way up to speed. Liam Hendriks (10%) – Hendriks is a fringe candidate to make the 25-man roster out of Spring Training, but with questions about health among several of the arms ahead of him on the pecking order, he is likely to be the next man in if any one of the projected five starters are not ready to start the season. Even a healthy Liam Hendriks is a long shot to take the ball for the Twins on Opening Day as Ron Gardenhire usually likes to reward his veterans. Kevin Correia (12%) – Poor Kevin Correia has been written off since before the ink was dry on his shiny-new 2-year $10 million dollar contract. Correia certainly is not the type of pitcher that would typically get the ball on baseball’s biggest stage, but the Twins seem to like his veteran leadership and clubhouse presence, something that went a long way forCarl Pavano (who started back-to-back Openers in 2011 and 2012). Pavano had almost a year and a half of starts with the Twins under his belt prior to taking the mound on Opening Day, but with no other experienced veterans on the roster, Correia might end up pitching by default. Kyle Gibson (13%) – The Twins seem dead set on starting the year with Aaron Hicks in center field field despite not having any Major League experience. If the Twins are trying to build excitement in 2013 and invite fans to buy into the Twins future, Gibson could wind up pitching on Opening Day to help build momentum toward 2014 and beyond. But like Pelfry, Gibson is coming off of Tommy-John surgery, and unlike Pelfrey, Gibson figures heavily into the Twins future plans, so they are likely to treat him with kid gloves. The Twins are looking to limit his inning totals in 2013, so putting him on the mound from Day 1 does not do a lot to aid that effort. Scott Diamond (15%) – After playing the role of savior for the 2012 Twins, Diamond was the overwhelming favorite to take the ball on Opening Day. If Diamond is healthy he will undoubtedly be pitching on April 1st. But Diamond had surgery in December to remove some bone chips from his throwing elbow and is reported to be progressing through his rehab slower than anticipated. There is still an outside chance that Diamond is healthy when the Twins open 2013, but the Twins want Diamond healthy long-term, so if any question marks remain about his health, expect the Twins to take things nice and slow. Vance Worley (38%) – Vance Worley seems to have become the Twins de facto Opening Day starter because there really is not anyone else with a real shot at keeping him from it. He has a lot of things working in his favor; he is healthy, he is young and exciting, has a chance to be a long-term part of the Twins ballclub, and he is not Kevin Correia (which is to say he is not old, ineffective, and overpaid). When the Twins traded away Ben Revere for Worley and Trevor May I would not have though Worley had any shot to pitch on Opening Day, but he seems to be the last man standing. -ERolfPleiss Read more about the Minnesota Twins at KnuckleballsBlog.com, including Eddie Rosario Turning Heads.

This is the first post in a series highlighting the Twins number one draft picks, originally published at BaseballTwins.com [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container] [TD=align: center]http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/pics/eddie_leon_autograph.jpg[/TD] [TD=class: tr-caption, align: center]Eddie Leon, All-American[/TD] [/TABLE] In 1965, the first year of the MLB draft, the Twins had the ninth selection and used it on a talented shortstop from the University of Arizona, Eddie Leon. Leon ended up not signing with the Twins and went back to Arizona and earned All-American honors in 1966. Selected the following year, third overall by the Chicago Cubs in the June Secondary draft, Leon once again failed to sign with the club that drafted him and went back to school. Like he did in 1966, after returning to campus he once again earned All-American honors. Finally, in 1967, Leon was drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the second round of the June Secondary draft and at the age of 20 reported to the Double-A Pawtucket Indians in the Eastern League. When asked why he declined to sign his first times through the draft, Leon told The Baseball Historian that not only was he not getting what he felt was an "adequate" bonus for a first round draft pick, but also because he wanted to finish his Civil Engineering degree at the University of Arizona. Leon played 51 games for the Indians and hit .202/.261/.307 and made 13 errors in 211 chances posting just a .938 fielding percentage. Despite his poor performance at AA Leon was promoted to Triple-A Portland for the final 17 games of the year, where Leon hit slightly better .233/.283/.349 and made just two errors in 62 chances. In 1968 Leon played the full season in Portland, building off his late season success from '67. Leon's offensive numbers were up across the board, and while he committed 30 errors in 705 chances, he was rewarded for a successful season with a brief September call up with the Cleveland Indians. Eddie Leon made his Major League debut on September 9, 1968 playing in Metropolitan Stadium against the Minnesota Twins, the team that first drafted him three years ago, entering the game in the 9th inning as a pinch runner for shortstop Larry Brown. Two days later, once again against the Twins, Eddie Leon was back in the lineup as a 10th inning defensive replacement for Pinch Hitter Jimmie Hall. In the top of the 12th inning, with the Indians having just taken a 1-0 lead and runners on first and second with no outs, Leon stepped to the plate with a chance to extend the Indians lead and promptly struck out. Leon would appear in five more games that September but would not have another plate appearance. [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container] [TD=align: center]http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hafnvl2TIJA/SSi_7yoawUI/AAAAAAAAHJI/YDqepDMrc9A/s320/eddie-leon.jpg[/TD] [TD=class: tr-caption, align: center]Eddie Leon, Shortstop[/TD] [/TABLE] In 1969 Leon was back in Triple-A, but after a strong first half in which he hit .262/.313/.349 and had his best fielding percentage of his Minor League career, he was promoted back to Cleveland and was the regular short stop for the remainder of the year. For the next three years Leon was the starting shortstop for the Cleveland Indians. Following the 1972 season, Leon was traded to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Outfielder Walt Williams. 1973 was a struggle for Eddie Leon and he hit just .228/.291/.291. The early 1970s was certainly not a time of high offensive output, but Leon's hitting line was good enough only for a 62 OPS+ (only slightly better than perennial Twins All-Star, Drew Butera). Leon was a part time player in 1974 and only played in 31 games for the White Sox. Often appearing as a pinch hitter or late-inning defensive replacement, Leon only accumulated 53 plate appearances and hit just .109/.143/.130. Following the 1974 season, Leon was once again traded, this time going to the New York Yankees in exchange for 31 year old reliever Cecil Upshaw. Eddie Leon played just two innings for the Yankees, entering the May 4th game in Milwaukee as a defensive replacement in the 8th inning and not receiving an at bat. That would be Leon's final appearance in Major League baseball as he was released by the Yankees the following day and spent the remainder of 1975 and all of 1976 playing baseball in the Mexican League for the Tampico Alijadores. Read more about the Minnesota Twins at BaseballTwins.com, including the most recent post about Darin Mastroianni's Heat Maps.

This is the first post in a series highlighting the Twins number one draft picks, originally published at BaseballTwins.com [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container] [TD=align: center]http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/pics/eddie_leon_autograph.jpg[/TD] [TD=class: tr-caption, align: center]Eddie Leon, All-American[/TD] [/TABLE] In 1965, the first year of the MLB draft, the Twins had the ninth selection and used it on a talented shortstop from the University of Arizona, Eddie Leon. Leon ended up not signing with the Twins and went back to Arizona and earned All-American honors in 1966. Selected the following year, third overall by the Chicago Cubs in the June Secondary draft, Leon once again failed to sign with the club that drafted him and went back to school. Like he did in 1966, after returning to campus he once again earned All-American honors. Finally, in 1967, Leon was drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the second round of the June Secondary draft and at the age of 20 reported to the Double-A Pawtucket Indians in the Eastern League. When asked why he declined to sign his first times through the draft, Leon told The Baseball Historian that not only was he not getting what he felt was an "adequate" bonus for a first round draft pick, but also because he wanted to finish his Civil Engineering degree at the University of Arizona. Leon played 51 games for the Indians and hit .202/.261/.307 and made 13 errors in 211 chances posting just a .938 fielding percentage. Despite his poor performance at AA Leon was promoted to Triple-A Portland for the final 17 games of the year, where Leon hit slightly better .233/.283/.349 and made just two errors in 62 chances. In 1968 Leon played the full season in Portland, building off his late season success from '67. Leon's offensive numbers were up across the board, and while he committed 30 errors in 705 chances, he was rewarded for a successful season with a brief September call up with the Cleveland Indians. Eddie Leon made his Major League debut on September 9, 1968 playing in Metropolitan Stadium against the Minnesota Twins, the team that first drafted him three years ago, entering the game in the 9th inning as a pinch runner for shortstop Larry Brown. Two days later, once again against the Twins, Eddie Leon was back in the lineup as a 10th inning defensive replacement for Pinch Hitter Jimmie Hall. In the top of the 12th inning, with the Indians having just taken a 1-0 lead and runners on first and second with no outs, Leon stepped to the plate with a chance to extend the Indians lead and promptly struck out. Leon would appear in five more games that September but would not have another plate appearance. [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container] [TD=align: center]http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hafnvl2TIJA/SSi_7yoawUI/AAAAAAAAHJI/YDqepDMrc9A/s320/eddie-leon.jpg[/TD] [TD=class: tr-caption, align: center]Eddie Leon, Shortstop[/TD] [/TABLE] In 1969 Leon was back in Triple-A, but after a strong first half in which he hit .262/.313/.349 and had his best fielding percentage of his Minor League career, he was promoted back to Cleveland and was the regular short stop for the remainder of the year. For the next three years Leon was the starting shortstop for the Cleveland Indians. Following the 1972 season, Leon was traded to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Outfielder Walt Williams. 1973 was a struggle for Eddie Leon and he hit just .228/.291/.291. The early 1970s was certainly not a time of high offensive output, but Leon's hitting line was good enough only for a 62 OPS+ (only slightly better than perennial Twins All-Star, Drew Butera). Leon was a part time player in 1974 and only played in 31 games for the White Sox. Often appearing as a pinch hitter or late-inning defensive replacement, Leon only accumulated 53 plate appearances and hit just .109/.143/.130. Following the 1974 season, Leon was once again traded, this time going to the New York Yankees in exchange for 31 year old reliever Cecil Upshaw. Eddie Leon played just two innings for the Yankees, entering the May 4th game in Milwaukee as a defensive replacement in the 8th inning and not receiving an at bat. That would be Leon's final appearance in Major League baseball as he was released by the Yankees the following day and spent the remainder of 1975 and all of 1976 playing baseball in the Mexican League for the Tampico Alijadores. Read more about the Minnesota Twins at BaseballTwins.com, including the most recent post about Darin Mastroianni's Heat Maps.

Thanks again for coming on Seth!