Miggy's Little Helper

It was the expectation that Falvine would be different (a thought that, as a Minnesotan, I knew deep down I should not have) compounded with last off-season's transactions. Need a DH: sign Morrison. Need SP: sign Lynn and trade for Odo. Need BP help: sign Reed and 'Nando (and design a hell of an introductory video--maybe that's where the $30M for this year went). All of those moves made sense and gave the impression we were willing to spend money to be competitive.

Even assuming that strikeouts were the end-all, be-all for pitchers (which they aren't), we are also looking at things from a roster standpoint. Historically, Keuchel has slightly more of a "strikeout pitcher" than Gibson and is something like an actual lightyear (186,000 miles per second times a year for those keeping track at home) ahead of Perez. Keuchel's average strikeout rate is basically on par with Odorizzi (another good argument for strikeout's aren't everything). We'd all love to have 5 starters that have rate out at 12.0K/9 and 1.0BB/9. But it doesn't work like that. There wasn't even a player on the FA market like that (assuming that you believe like most of the world that Corbin's 30.8% K rate - 50% more than his historical rate - is due for regression). What matters is that Keuchel is a vastly superior pitcher to Perez and that Keuchel's inclusion in the rotation makes the team better.

First, I think it's going to be closer to 80M than 60M. Second, 2015: 90.5 Average Fastball Velocity - 2.48 ERA - 23.7% K rate (THAT'S HOW YOU WIN CY YOUNGS', BABY) 2016: 89.3 - 4.55 - 20.5% 2017: 89.6 - 2.90 - 21.4% 2018: 90.2 - 3.74 - 17.5% Not every pitcher relies on velo for effectiveness and strikeouts.

I agree with you. If that's what's going on, it excuses Falvine from the blame. At that point, it'd all be on the Pohlads.

Also, GM malpractice theory #2. The Twins decide to not sign any impactful players between now and the end of Spring Training and fail to use the $30M of available payroll space to frontload extensions for Berrios and Rosario. Letting $30M sit by the wayside--never to be used again based on the insane 50% of revenue rule--would be inexcusable. Defense to GM malpractice: Pohlad set payroll at $100M and Falvine has to spin (probably so the Pohlads could, in part, pay for the purchase of FSN--which of course will not constitute useable revenue for future Twins payroll).

"My view ... is the best time to acquire players of that magnitude is when your window to win is wide open, not when you're got your fingers underneath the window and you're trying to jam the window open," Levine said on a panel at TwinsFest. "I want to do it when we're projected to win the Central, and we're ready to put our foot on someone's throat." One has to wonder exactly who Falvine lumps into "players of that magnitude". In this quote, it's Machado and Harper, but given the Twin's inaction in the wake of a $100M payroll, it'd appear that they're averse to generally signing 3-4 WAR players to multi-year deals. Assuming that's true, which again, it appears to be, Levine's quote should worry every Twins fan: we're not going to spend money on impact players unless we're the best. But we won't spend money on impactful players to move from being close to the best to the actual best. With Falvine's asinine mentality, we're doomed. We're going to be the 90s and 00s Royals. As an aside to all of that, assuming Keuchel can be had for 4 years or less, if the Twins don't sign Keuchel, it's GM malpractice. Last year was an absolute disaster and we STILL WON 78 GAMES. What if, instead of everything going wrong like last year, things go better than expected (or even as expected) in the production department? I mean, even with EXPECTED production, Fangraphs has us 2 games out of the Wild Card game right now. Keuchel either puts you in contention for the 2nd WC spot or, if Cleveland has a disaster season (which is not so impossible to envision given their roster turnover), it could be just enough to get us over the division title line. Next, we're going to need to spend on the rotation next year. We have one set starter for next year. Everything else is completely dependent on development. Not only does the lack of penciled-in arms increase the importance of spending this year (when the odds of winning are better), it also means that signing a pitcher for 2020 and beyond decreases the margin for error moving forward. Using the Falvine philsophy, they're not going to sign Madbum, Cole, Sale, Strasburg (assuming he opts out, which is no sure thing in today's market), etc. So who would you rather spend the money on? The only pitcher (in my mind) to even consider is Verlander on a 2-year/$40M deal for his age 37 and 38 season--a decision that decreases the odds of reaching the playoffs this year. The end of the Hot Stove season has me seething. A complete punt job in the weakest division in baseball with the sole rival in decline.

He had success in low-leverage relief last year. I suspect we signed him for bottom bullpen depth. If that's the case, fine. If that's not the case, and we signed him to be the 5, then I dare say this is the worst move of the Falvine era. A zero upside signing and a pretty clear downgrade from Mejia.

That thought certainly crossed my mind as well, and if that's the case, I put that on both Molitor and Falvine. If Duke wasn't available, then you try to cross over to Mejia (and if you're concerned about warm up time, you get him started during the 8th--and then you doubly wonder why he's even on the roster). Beyond that, yesterday the roster was a mess. 6 starters, down one position player, down one reliever, and then, if Duke wasn't available, you want to hold back ANOTHER reliever (on a day that Lance Lynn in pitching no less). Ugh. I can't wait to see that big Wilson haul... Do you think we could trade Wilson for Realmuto straight up?

Last night was just further proof that Paul Molitor shouldn't be managing a little league team, let alone a Major League Baseball team. The bullpen usage in the 9th and 10th was practically criminal to the point that, if you wanted to, you could reasonably believe that he (perhaps at the direction of Falvine) was trying to throw the game. Rodney threw 25 pitches on Thursday, and had thrown three out of the last four. We all lived the FRE on Thursday. That's reason enough to give him a day off. BUT EVEN MORE THAN THAT, we had a rested Zach Duke and three hitters that are essentially useless against LHP due up in the bottom of the 9th. Devers (R/L OPS): .759/.590. Nunez: .670/.543. Leon: .623/.601. HOW DUMB COULD YOU BE? Then Belisle. Both by the eyeball test and stats, if you run Belisle in a tie game, you should immediately be cuffed, thrown in a paddy wagon, and transported to your local holding facility. Molitor did it on Wednesday for two innings and got away with it. He did it again last night and, quelle surprise, was burned. It's amazing how rate statistics work.