Andrew Thares

Tensions flared at the end of yesterday’s 4-2 Twins win over the Kansas City Royals. Look for that to be a compelling storyline as the Twins look to complete the series victory over the Royals tonight and improve their record to 15-8 before welcoming the Milwaukee Brewers to town tomorrow night.Yesterday’s Game Recap MIN 4, KCR 2: Pitching, Defense and Overall Execution Shine in Twins Victory TODAY Twins vs. Royals, 7:10 pm CDT Betting Lines: MIN -175, KC +150, O/U: 9.5 Twins Starter: Matt Wisler, RHP 1.80 ERA With the starting rotation still not back to full strength, Rocco Baldelli will turn to the bullpen once again, to get through nine innings of work. Fortunately, the bullpen is fairly well rested as Taylor Rogers and Sergio Romo should be the only pitchers that will likely not be available to use tonight. Look for either Devin Smeltzer or Lewis Thorpe to get some extended work in the early-to-middle part of this game. Download attachment: 6554F127-AAA4-46E4-A9EB-DC8959BA1BD2.png Matt Wisler has been a surprising bright spot for the Twins bullpen to start the season. In six appearances, Wisler has a 1.80 ERA over 10 innings of work. Wisler has gone more than an inning in five of his six outings this year, which includes 2 and 2/3 innings of work last Tuesday in Milwaukee. Hopefully, he can give the Twins a couple of strong scoreless innings to begin tonight’s ballgame. Royals Starter: Kris Bubic, LHP 5.40 ERA For the second day in a row, the Kansas City Royals will be starting a pitcher that they selected in the 2018 MLB Draft, this time around it is former Stanford Cardinal lefty Kris Bubic. Don’t let Bubic’s 5.40 ERA to start the season fool you, he is a quality pitcher. In two seasons in the minors, Bubic has posted a stellar 2.59 ERA with 11.4 K/9 and just 2.9 BB/9. Bubic will sit 92-94 MPH with his fastball, but can rear back and reach as high as 97 MPH with it. Overall, the pitch is pretty flat, and can be squared up. The pitch to watch out for is Bubic’s changeup, which can be a wipeout pitch to both righties and lefties. Bubic will also mix in the occasional curveball, primarily against left-handed hitters. Twins Lineup New & Notes - The Cincinnati Reds are still waiting on their COVID-19 test results to come back, but they remain hopeful that they can begin their series with the Royals on Tuesday night. - The Detroit Tigers announced today that they are calling up top prospects Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Isaac Paredes to the big-league roster. - DJ LeMahieu, Ronald Acuna and Bo Bichette were all placed on the 10-day IL on Sunday with varying injuries. Around the AL Central Indians 8, Tigers 5 White Sox 7, Cardinals 2 1. MIN 14-8 (+35) 2. CLE 13-9 (+21) 3. CWS 11-11 (-3) 4. DET 9-10 (-12) 5. KC 9-13 (-7) See Also Week in Review: 4-2 Dylan Bundy Could Be the Perfect Target at the Trade Deadline Sergio Romo to Royals: Keep Talking Rules Help Impending Minor League Free Agents MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

If the Minnesota Twins are looking to bolster their starting rotation, their options will be severely limited this year when compared to the usual trade deadline. However, that does not mean that their options are nonexistent, with one of those intriguing options being Los Angeles Angles right-hander Dylan Bundy.There was a lot of hype surrounding Bundy on his way up through the minors, reaching as high as the second-best prospect in baseball according to the 2013 MLB.com preseason prospect rankings, after he already made his MLB debut at the end of the 2012 season. However, Bundy’s career protectory was derailed later that summer, as he had to undergo Tommy John surgery. After more injury issues, Bundy didn’t make his return to the big leagues until the 2016 season. Bundy’s four seasons in a Baltimore Orioles uniform were disappointing to say the least. While he was able to stay healthy, Bundy failed to have a season where he posted an ERA below four. In total, Bundy had a 4.69 ERA with an 8.8 K/9 and a 3.0 BB/9. This led to the Orioles decision to move on from Bundy this winter. Now, in an Angels jersey, Bundy is pitching better than ever. While the season is still young, Bundy has been lights out to start the season. In four starts, Bundy already has a 1.1 fWAR entering play on Sunday. In 28 and 2/3 innings of work, Bundy has 35 strikeouts, while allowing just 3 walks. A big factor that is playing into this great start from Bundy is the change in pitch usage that he is using to start this season. Download attachment: 8D8871A2-8B40-435D-954A-F4063E294160.png In the graph above, we can see that Bundy has ramped up his slider usage in his first four starts of 2020. Throughout his career, the four-seam fastball has been by far the dominantly used pitch in Bundy’s repertoire, in most seasons nearly doubling the usage of next closest pitch. This year, however, he has actually thrown a couple more sliders than fastballs thus far. This is a move that seemed all too obvious for Bundy, who possess one of the best sliders in all of baseball. Just how good has Bundy’s slider been? Well, here is where Bundy’s slider ranks among the best starting pitcher sliders in Major League Baseball since he started throwing it with regularity in 2017. Download attachment: 701DC82E-32EA-438B-A4D2-204AF9AD850C.png In the above chart, we see the top five pitchers ranked by slider xwOBA since the 2017 season (min. 1500 sliders thrown). As you can see, Bundy not only tops the leaderboard in this all-important category, but he also maintains pace with these other pitchers in other important categories such as whiff rate and spin rate. In addition to ramping up the usage of his slider, Bundy has also made improvements with his changeup over the last couple of seasons. In 2018, Bundy’s changeup was nothing more than an absolute liability pitch for him, as opposing hitters smashed it for a .356 average and a .724 slugging percentage. Those numbers where much improved in 2019, as hitters hit a more modest .254 and slugged .413. So far in 2020, those numbers have improved even further as opposing batters are hitting just .120 with a .240 slugging percentage against Bundy’s changeup. There are a couple of notable differences in Bundy’s changeup that seem to explain the improvement in the pitch. The first is the drop-in spin rate, as seen in the chart below. Unlike breaking balls, where a higher spin rate is typically a good thing, for changeups a lower spin rate is usually better. The reason for this is the spin on a changeup acts against gravity, so if there is less spin, the ball will actually have more downward movement as it gets closer to the plate. This has helped improve the swing and miss ability of the pitch, as that has increased from 28.7 percent in 2018, up to 32.5 percent and 34.1 percent in the last two years, respectively. Download attachment: CCB2E428-A10B-4F7B-BAB8-07818681378B.png Download attachment: ACE42103-8D7E-43BB-9618-8CD3E1D4310F.png The other big improvement that Bundy has made to his changeup has been his ability to locate the pitch. In the past, Bundy struggled to get his changeup down in the zone consistently. This allowed opposing hitters to tee off on the pitch. However, Bundy has remedied that problem, and is now getting that pitch down in the zone more consistently, as is illustrated in the chart below. Download attachment: 22E41A1E-A233-49EC-820B-31C59AF81316.png The effects of this improvement of Bundy’s changeup have been profound. Bundy uses his changeup as his go to secondary offering against left-handed hitters, and lefties are now having much less success against him. In 2018, left-handed hitters had an OPS of .938 against Bundy. In 2019, that number was down to a much more respectable .781, and so far in 2020 It has fallen even further, down to .627. In addition to the improvements that Dylan Bundy has made to his game, he is also the perfect trade candidate from a contract perspective for the Twins. Bundy is currently in his second arbitration season, meaning the Twins will have team control for 2021. Additionally, Bundy will only have about $700K left on his deal for 2020 after the August 31st trade deadline, minimizing the payroll impact this season. It still remains to be seen if the Angels are willing to move Bundy at the deadline, and if so, what it will cost to acquire him. If the asking price is too high, the Twins should probably hold back, but if they get a reasonable offer from the Angels they should jump all over it, as Bundy has the potential to be at or near the top of a Twins rotation that lacks a true frontline starter. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Twins are back in Minnesota after what was a very disappointing 3-5 road trip, that included getting swept in a three-game series versus the Royals. The Twins will be looking for a little bit of redemption as they begin a four-game series with the Royals tonight.Wednesday Night’s Game Recap MIN 12, MIL 2: Byron Buxton Blasts 2 More Home Runs in Blowout of Brewers TODAY Twins vs. Royals, 7:10 pm CDT Betting Lines: MIN -180, KC +155, O/U: 9.5 Twins Starter: Jake Odorizzi, RHP 6.00 ERA After beginning the season on the IL with a right intercostal strain, Jake Odorizzi finally made his first appearance of the season last Saturday against the Royals. It was clear there was still some rust that Odorizzi needed to shake off, as he didn’t have his sharpest of stuff. In just three innings of work, Odorizzi gave up two walks and a home run. Of the 71 pitches he threw, just 40 of them were for strikes. Before the game tonight, Baldelli said of Odorizzi, "He was able to get, not through too many innings last time out, but he was able to throw pitches to build himself up. When he came out of the game, just chatting with him, he seemed in a pretty good frame of mind, like he'd be ready to go. He just couldn't wait to get back on the mound." The Twins will be hoping for a better performance tonight, as Odorizzi gets a second look that this Royals lineup, which has been surprisingly better than expected so far this season. In 19 games this season, the Royals are averaging 4.42 runs per game and have a wRC+ of 100. While this isn’t specular by any means, being even league average is a massive uptick from where they were the past couple of years. Royals Starter: Jakob Junis, RHP 4.00 ERA Jakob Junis was the Royals starter in the series opener last Friday, so the Twins lineup should still have him fresh on their minds. In that start, Junis went 4 and 2/3 giving up two runs on two solo shots by Byron Buxton and Marwin Gonzalez. Junis was fortunate it wasn’t more, as he gave up a total of five hits and two walks, but unfortunately for the Twins, nobody was on base when they hit their home runs. Download attachment: EAC2390A-20D2-4B97-860D-574B3AAE1E91.png As we can see from the chart about (via Baseball Savant) Junis has not been overly impressive to start the season, despite his respectable 4.00 ERA, as his FIP stands a 6.42 and his expected ERA (xERA) is at a staggering 6.90, which ranks in the 14th percentile of all Major League pitchers so far in the 2020 season. In nine total innings of work, Junis has just four strikeouts and four walks. In his career, Junis has a K/9 of 8.1 and a BB/9 of just 2.5. Twins Lineup 1. Max Kepler, RF 2. Jorge Polanco, SS 3. Nelson Cruz, DH 4. Eddie Rosario, LF 5. Marwin Gonzalez, 3B 6. Mitch Garver, C 7. Luis Arraez, 2B 8. Miguel Sano, 1B 9. Byron Buxton, CF News & Notes - The Twins activate reliever Zack Littell off the IL, and placed Cody Stashak on the 10-day IL with lower back inflammation. - Injury Updates Josh Donaldson - Falvey said, "He had a good day yesterday in terms of what was asked of him from a rehab standpoint. I don't have any specific return timeline. We're going to be cautious. We're going to be careful." -Rich Hill - Baldelli said he threw 60 pitches in St. Paul today. "Everything went well. Physically, he's feels really good. Mentally, he's in a good spot. So, I think we can have him built up to where he can make a start this week for us. We don't have an exact date of that start. I think we know it's going to fall at some point in the middle of the week if everything holds. It's very encouraging. It also gives everyone coming in after him an extra day which is also nice in this 20-game stretch." - Homer Bailey - Baldelli said that Bailey is that he is throwing, and he is up to 90 feet, and things have gone smoothly. - Cody Stashak - Baldelli said, "Shack's been dealing with some soreness and sensation in his hip, kind of up and down around his hip. He has pitched with it, but it has affected his ability to come back after pitching, or affected his ability to throw multiple innings in an outing. These are things he's been battling through." - The Twins also designated Cory Gearrin for assignment and activated infielder Ildemaro Vargas. Before the game, Vargas told media that he already knew Ehire Adrianza, Luis Arraez and had played with Alex Avila last year in Arizona. He said (through interpreter Elvis Martinez), "I enjoy playing second base a lot. I feel comfortable at all of them (positions)." Derek Falvey said, "He fits at a number of infield positions. He's pretty comfortable in a few different spots. Any time you get somebody who has the ability to be versatile around the infield, we felt was a good opportunity." He continued, "When he became available, we figured we could make a move like this to shore up another option for the infield just to protect ourselves. We feel like he's got versatility, and he's performed at the minor league level. He hasn't quite translated that to the big league level, but we've seen that before for guys. And the makeup is really strong." - Mooke Betts hit three home runs against the San Diego Padres on Thursday night. That was already the 6th three-homer game in the 27-year-old’s young career, which tied Sammy Sosa and Johnny Mize for the most in MLB history. - The Chicago Cubs continued their hot start to the season Thursday night, beating the Milwaukee Brewers by a score of 4-2. The Cubs are now 13-3, and have an impressive 6.5 game lead in the NL Central. AROUND THE AL CENTRAL No games were played on Thursday 1. MIN 12-7 (+33) 2. DET 9-7 (-2) 3. CHW 10-9 (-1) 4. CLE 10-9 (+11) 5. KCR 8-11 (-5) Seth Stohs contributed quotes from the pre-game Twins press conference to this article. See Also Twins Ponder Further Efforts to Protect Byron Buxton The Only Trade The Twins Need to Consider Before the Deadline Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach or Brent Rooker: Which Top Prospect (if any) Should the Minnesota Twins Call Up? How Can the Twins Get Miguel Sano Going? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Rocco Baldelli was managing his way through another bullpen game and decided to deploy closer Taylor Rogers in the eighth inning to face the middle of Milwaukee’s lineup. The aggressive move didn’t work out, as Jedd Gyorko hit a go-ahead two-run homer that proved to be the difference in the game.Box Score Home Runs: Polanco (2), Rosario 2 (6) Bottom 3 WPA: Rogers -.310, May -200, Arráez -.079 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: Winchart811.png It was the long ball that set the tone early for the Twins offense again tonight. Jorge Polanco took Brewers starter Josh Lindblom deep in the second at-bat of the ballgame. It was Polanco’s second home run of the season and gave the Twins a quick 1-0 lead. Eddie Rosario then answered Polanco’s home run with one of his own just a couple batters later, which was his second home run in as many nights. This home run clocked in with a launch angle of 41 degrees, which was just Rosario’s fifth career home run with a launch angle above 40 degrees. That wasn’t the only noise Rosario made tonight, as in his very next at-bat he went deep again, this time it was a two-run home run that extended the Twins lead to 4-1. Unlike his first home run, that barely made it out, this one was an absolute no doubter right off the bat. Again the story for the Twins bats was more of the same. A few runs early scored on home runs, but after that the bats seemed to all but disappear. Outside of Polanco and Rosario, the lone bright spot this evening offensivly for the Twins was Byron Buxton, who went 3-for-4 with a stolen base. With the Twins starting rotation still not back to full strength, Rocco Baldelli put the game in the hands of the bullpen for the second time this season. Tyler Clippard started the game by giving up a leadoff home run to Avisail Garcia, but then retired the next three Brewers hitters that he faced. In the second, Baldelli turned to Cody Stashak, who had an excellent bounce back performance, striking out all three batters that he faced. Matt Wisler got some extended work to try and eat up some innings to bridge the game over the back end of the bullpen. After two excellent innings in the 3rd and 4th, Wisler gave up a solo shot to Brewers catcher Manny Pina, which cut the Twins lead down to two. After giving up a two-out single, Trevor May came in to get the Twins out of the inning. May then returned to the mound to work the 6th inning, where he promptly gave up a two-run home run, again hit by Manny Pina, which erased the Twins lead. Tyler Duffey came in to pitch the 7th and did what he has made a habit of, pitching a scoreless 1-2-3 inning. So far this year, Duffey has pitched 7 scoreless innings, while only allowing 2 hits with 0 walks and 10 strikeouts. Dating back to July 28th of last season, Duffey has had a scoreless outing in 33 of his 34 appearances. With the heart of the Brewers order due up in the bottom of the 8th, Baldelli made the move to Taylor Rogers. Christian Yelich proceeded to doubled off of Rogers before Jedd Gyorko took him deep, giving the Brewers a 6-4 lead. While this move did not pan out, it is one I completely agree with, as the game was very much on the line with the heart of the Brewers order up, it just didn’t work out this time. Josh Hader came in and closed the door for the Brewers in the 9th, and was his usual impressive self in doing so, getting a strikeout for all three of his outs. With the loss, the Twins record drops to 11-7, but they still maintained a 0.5 game lead in the AL Central, as the second place Detroit Tigers lost to the Chicago White Sox earlier this evening. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: Bullpen811.png Postgame Pint Twins Daily's community and writers gathered immediately following the 6-4 loss to the Brewers to discuss what went wrong. Download The Postgame Pint Podcast You can also listen to the Postgame Pint and never miss another one. Just head over to our iTunes page and subscribe. Every morning you'll have a new episode waiting for you. Or listen wherever you download your favorite podcasts. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — You can follow Andrew Thares on Twitter here Click here to view the article

The depth of the Minnesota Twins starting rotation has been tested early on. Jake Odorizzi finally made his first start on Saturday, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey each made one start before landing on the IL, and Michael Pineda is still serving his suspension. Hopefully, as they start to return, that will sure the Twins rotation back up, but if injury issues persist, the Twins may need to turn to the trade market to improve the starting rotation.With the altered 2020 MLB schedule, the trade deadline for this year has been moved back a month from July 31st to August 31st. This will give teams about a month to evaluate where they stand for this season, to decide if they want to be buyers or sellers. Another change to the 2020 season that will have a major impact on the trade market is the expanded postseason. With 16 of the 30 teams making the postseason this year, it will likely leave only a few teams as true sellers at the deadline, and even fewer of those teams that actually have players of a good enough quality to trade for. With that all being said, teams in clear title contention will still be aggressive at the deadline to improve their rosters. For the Twins, they will likely be looking heavily at the starting pitching market, either to add a frontline arm to the rotation, or to sure up any depth concerns that might still be prevalent come the deadline. So, let’s take a look at some of the starting pitchers that could be targets for the Twins. Luis Castillo & Trevor Bauer – Cincinnati Reds Coming into the season, the Reds were a dark horse pick to win the National League Central by many people, myself included. However, they have gotten off to a bit of a slow start. If they continue to struggle over the next few weeks, they might decide to try and move a piece to bolster their club for the future. Luis Castillo is a name that has been mentioned a number of times in trade talks, but with still three years of control after 2020, the Reds will be reluctant to move him. The pitcher that they could be more interested in making a deal for is Trevor Bauer. Bauer is in the final year of his contract, and despite how many people feel about him, Bauer is an excellent pitcher that could instantly provide a boost to the Twins rotation, even if it was fully healthy. Dylan Bundy & Andrew Heaney – Los Angeles Angels The Angels are another team that has failed to get off to a good start, coming into Sunday with a record of just 5 and 10. With Shohei Ohtani shelved from pitching for the rest of the season, it will be incredibly difficult for them to claw their way back into contention in the American League. Both Dylan Bundy and Andrew Heaney would make excellent trade candidates for the Angels. They both have just one more arbitration eligible season in 2021, before hitting free agency, and they both are quality enough starting pitchers to add depth to a postseason rotation. Both pitchers have gotten off to great starts this season, something the analytical world is not surprised by, as both pitchers have had much better underlying metrics than their baseline stats have said over the past couple of seasons. If the Twins injury woes continue, either one of these two could slot in as a number 3 or 4 pitchers in the Postseason rotation. Lance Lynn & Mike Minor – Texas Rangers While many Twins fans would reject the idea or reacquiring Lance Lynn after his disappointing 2018 campaign with the Twins, he has actually been on the best pitchers in Major League Baseball since he left. With one year, and $10 million left on his contract after this season, he would be an appealing addition to the Twins. With the Rangers not expecting to be all that competitive in 2021, they could look to move Lynn now and get max value for him. Among all the pitchers mentioned so far, the most likely candidate to get moved before the deadline is Mike Minor. With the Rangers not competitive, and Minor being on the last year of his deal, there is almost no reason to hang onto him. Minor has gotten off to a dreadful start (6.89 ERA in 3 starts), which could give people pause. However, Minor has a FIP of 3.67 and an xERA (per Statcast) of 3.91 that suggest Minor has had a lot of bad luck early in the season that has led to an inflated ERA. Additionally, Minor has a few year track record of success, so I wouldn’t get too hung up on three bad starts. Kevin Gausman – San Francisco Giants In the offseason, Kevin Gausman signed a one-year prove it deal with the San Francisco Giants for nine million dollars. His first three starts in San Fran have been very intriguing. On one hand, he has a 5.27 ERA. On the other hand, he has a FIP of just 1.52, which is aided heavily by his incredible 15 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. Granted it is hard to take much out of just 9 and 2/3 innings of work, especially given his track record. However, Gausman’s fastball velocity has ticked back up to an average of 94.6 MPH, the highest it has been since 2017. As the next few weeks unfold, we will start to gain an even clearer picture of what the starting pitcher trade market will look like. Teams will roughly double their number of games played between now and then, to have a better idea if they want to go for it or not this season. We will also likely get a few more starts worth of data on these starting pitchers to have a clearer picture of who these guys are in 2020. Hopefully, the Twins are able to regain their health, and won’t need to rely on a trade, but even if that does happen, don’t be too surprised if they make a move to sure up their starting rotation even more before the deadline. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — You can follow Andrew Thares on Twitter here Click here to view the article

The 36% for Dobnak isn’t his hard hit rate, but what percentile he ranks in among pitchers for hard hit rate. On Statcast, Dobnak’s hard hit rate (batted balled hit 95 MPH+) is 40%. On Fangraphs (which uses Baseball Info Solutions formula for hard hit rate) his hard hit rate is 48%.

After sweeping the first half of the home and home versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Minnesota Twins will make the trip over to Pittsburgh for the second half of the series. With a win tonight, the Twins will be the first team in Major League Baseball to reach the 10 win mark on the young season.LAST NIGHT’S GAME RECAP MIN 7, PIT 3: José Berríos Overcomes Command, Drone TODAY Twins @ Pittsburgh, 6:05 pm CT Betting Lines: MIN -180, PIT +155, O/U 9 Twins Starter: Randy Dobnak, RHP 1.00 ERA Randy Dobnak totes the mound for the Twins tonight in Pittsburgh. He is coming off two impressive outings to start the season, where he has combined to give up just one run over nine innings pitched. He will look to keep his momentum going versus the rather lackluster Pirates offense. Download attachment: E45C5975-C790-41FB-8535-CF9784B5A964.png A quick glance at Dobnak’s Statcast numbers, and they tell a slightly different story. Opposing hitters have been making loud contact off Dobnak, to the tune of a 93.1 MPH average exit velocity, so far this year. For comparison, that is nearly as high as Nelson Cruz’s 93.7 MPH average exit velocity in 2019, which ranked second in all of baseball. Dobnak has also struggled a bit with walks to start the year. So far, Dobnak has already walked four batters, which is just one less than he walked in his 28 and 1/3 regular season innings in 2019. Avoiding walks and hard contact will be the thing to watch from Dobnak in his start tonight. Pirates Starter: Trevor Williams, RHP 5.40 ERA The Twins will be squaring off against Pirates right-hander Trevor Williams. After a decent rookie season in 2017, followed by a strong sophomore campaign in 2018, Williams has taken a big step backwards in his career development. In 2019, Williams posted a dreadful 5.38 ERA across 26 starts. Williams hasn’t looked particularly sharp in either on of his first two starts of 2020, having given up four walks, two home runs and hitting two batters in just 8 and 1/3 innings of work. Download attachment: ECA1643D-7536-493C-99CD-7D8DF58D3663.png Williams primarily features a combination of a four-seam fastball, that sits in the lower 90s, paired with a low 80s slider. He also mixes in the occasionally changeup and curveball, but neither pitch is all that impressive. As a predominantly flyball pitcher, Williams has a tough time keeping the ball in the ballpark, as he gave up 1.67 HR/9 last season. This was the 8th highest among the 88 pitchers who at least 140 innings in 2019. Expect the Twins bats to jump all over Williams, and possibly drive a couple pitches out of the park. Lineup 1. Max Kepler, RF .943 OPS 2. Jorge Polanco, SS .684 OPS 3. Nelson Cruz, DH 1.132 OPS 4. Eddie Rosario, LF .797 OPS 5. Jake Cave, CF .686 OPS 6. Luis Arraez, 2B .502 OPS 7. Mitch Garver, C .582 OPS 8. Marwin Gonzalez, 1B .800 OPS 9. Ehire Adrianza, 3B .500 OPS News & Notes - This is the Twins first trip to Pittsburgh since April of 2018. The Twins split that two-game series with the Pirates, though that series will probably most notably be remembered for Fernando Rodney eating snow during his relief appearance. - Albert Pujols hit a home run last night in the Angels 5-3 win over the Mariners. Pujols now has 659 career home runs and is now just one home run shy of tying Willie Mays for fifth on the all-time home run list. - In other Angels news, Mike Trout homered in his first at-bat back after the birth of his son Beckham. Also, Joe Maddon announced that it is unlikely that Shohei Ohtani will pitch again this season. - Yankees reliever Tommy Kahnle had Tommy John surgey and will miss the remainder of the 2020 season. AROUND THE AL CENTRAL CLE 4, CIN 2 CWS 3, MIL 2 CHC 5, KC 4 1. MIN 9-2 (+27) 2. CHW 7-4 (+8) 3. CLE 6-6 (+2) 4. DET 5-5 (-11) 5. KCR 3-9 (-17) SEE ALSO Mechanical Adjustments Make for Wicked Matt Wisler Catching Up With Former Twins Catcher Matt Walbeck Paving a Path, Women in Baseball: Venika Streeter Has a Change in Pitch Usage Ascended Kenta Maeda to the Next Level? Click here to view the article

Nelson Cruz put the finishing touch on a Twins comeback, delivering a walk-off hit to score Jorge Polanco in the bottom of the ninth inning. Pittsburgh scored the first four runs of this game but could not build upon its lead, nor keep the Twins’ lineup at bay.Box Score Thorpe: 4.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 3 K Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Kepler .459, Wisler .207, Cruz .178 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: Winchart.png The night didn’t start off all the optimistic for the Twins, as the Pirates jumped over Lewis Thorpe right from the get-go, as leadoff hitter Cole Tucker took Thorpe deep on the first pitch of the game. Thorpe said, "It was a bit of a reality check. You're not expecting him to swing first pitch, then all of a sudden, he lets loose and it gets over the fence. That's baseball." After cruising through the rest of the first, Thorpe did anything but in the rest of his outing. In the second inning, the Pirate strung together three straight singles to tack on another run. Then in the fourth it was walks that did Thorpe in, as he gave up four walks and a double to the seven batters that he faced that inning. Luckily though, the Pirates still only managed to bring one run across in that inning. Following the game, Thorpe said, "I feel fine. I don't know it was tonight, but hopefully I can get that velo back, but just put this one behind me and go from here." After Thorpe’s disappointing start, Jorge Alcala was brought in to make his 2020 debut. Alcala also struggled with his command in the fifth, but it was a couple of hits that helped the Pirates take on another run in the fifth, increasing their lead to four. The sixth inning, however, was a very impressive one for the young pitcher, as Alcala seemed to find his rhythm on his way to an easy 1-2-3 inning. The Twins bats were very silent during the first half of the game. Through the first five innings of the game, Twins failed to get a runner into scoring position, as the only two runners to reach base were Max Kepler and Nelson Cruz on singles in the second a fourth innings, respectively. That narrative all changed in the bottom of the sixth, when the Twins used a patient approach to score four two-out runs to tie the game back up. Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano, Marwin Gonzalez, Jake Cave and Byron Buxton all drew walks in the inning, but it was two big hits that did the damage in the inning. Nelson Cruz got the Twins on the board with a two-out squibber to beat the shift and bring Garver home for the first run of the inning. Then a couple batters later Max Kepler came through with this massive double, to bring the lead down to one. The Pirates went to the bullpen after that Kepler double, but that decision didn’t pan out well for them as reliever Miguel Del Pozo walked all three batters that he faced, which included a wild pitch that brought Kepler home from third as the game’s tying run. Pirates manager Derek Shelton then turned the game over to Chris Stratton to face Ehire Adrianza. In his second at-bat of the inning, Adrianza made an excellent bid for a go-ahead base hit, but he was robbed by a great catch by Pirates left fielder Bryan Reynolds. After pitching a scoreless inning and a third in yesterday’s ballgame, Matt Wisler was back out on the mound tonight, in a suddenly meaningful spot. Just like he did against the Indians on Sunday, Wisler looked very impressive tonight retiring all six batters that he faced. Wisler said, "Coming into the game, my job in that situation is just to try to keep the team where it's at." Taylor Rogers then came in to pitch a scoreless ninth, giving the Twins bats a chance to end it in the ninth. Jorge Polanco pinch-hit for Ehire Adrianza to leadoff the inning off of former Twins farmhand NIck Burdi, and blooped a single out into left-field. He then advanced to second on a passed ball, during the Mitch Garver plate appearance, that eventually resulted in a walk, putting runners on first and second with nobody out. The next batter was Luis Arraez, why drilled a line drive into the right-centerfield gap, that was hauled in by Pirates right fielder Guillermo Heredia. However, both Polanco and Garver were able to tag-up on the play. That set the table for Nelson Cruz, who surprisingly was not intentionally walked to load the bases for Miguel Sano. Cruz said, "I thought maybe they would pitch around me." Cruz took full advantage of the situation and drove a deep fly ball to the warning track in right-centerfield that drop for a walk-off base hit. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: Bullpen.png Postgame Pint A live virtual audience joined John Bonnes, Cody Christie, Ted Schwerzler and Jeremy Nygaard and discussed the Minnesota Twins' walkoff 5-4 win over the Pirates. Download The Postgame Pint Podcast You can also listen to the Postgame Pint and never miss another one. Just head over to our iTunes page and subscribe. Every morning you'll have a new episode waiting for you. Or listen wherever you download your favorite podcasts. Seth Stohs contributed quotes to this article. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — You can follow Andrew Thares on Twitter here Click here to view the article

Rich Hill capped a nice string of Twins pitching debuts by delivering five innings of shutout ball, surrendering just a pair of hits in the process. The new-look Twins rotation is off to a strong start, as Hill, Homer Bailey and Kenta Maeda each earned a victory the past three games.Box Score Hill: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K Home Runs: Rosario (1) Top 3 WPA: Hill .281, Cruz .123, Rosario .064 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: Winchart.png Rich Hill finally made his first start in a Twins uniform, after being scratched from his scheduled start on Saturday. For Twins fans who didn’t know what they could expect from the 40-year-old Hill, they should take nothing but positives from this start. Hill pitched five scoreless innings with two strikeouts, all while allowing just two hits and one walk. Hill barely had to work up a sweat, throwing just 68 pitches before Rocco Baldelli decided that was a job well done, and turn the game over to the bullpen. His catcher on Wednesday was fellow veteran Alex Avila who said, "With him (Hill), it's not too difficult to call a game. Two pitches. Knowing when to go in, stay away, go up, stay down." He later added, "He was great. I barely broke a sweat." Hill noted, "It felt great to get back out there." Hill tipped his cap to the doctors that completed his surgery, then noted the work put in to come back. "There were a lot of days at home, throwing by myself at a field with a net to throw my bullpens." Luis Arraez got his first start in the leadoff spot this season and played the role to perfection, drawing a leadoff walk in the first. However, he was still stranded at first with two-outs when Nelson Cruz came up and drove him in with a double into the right-field gap, giving the Twins an early 1-0 lead. A big part of this at-bat was Cruz working the count full, after falling behind 1-2. This allowed Arraez to leave early from first and scored easily on the Cruz double. The Twins added to their lead with two more runs in the bottom of the 4th. They got their first run of the inning on Eddie Rosario’s first home run of the season. Rosario said after the game, "In the last couple of games, I wanted to select good pitches to hit, but I felt a little late on strikes. So today I wanted to be a little more aggressive tonight." The bottom of the order was then able to put together a two-out rally, as Jake Cave and Marwin Gonzalez reached on a hit-by-pitch and a walk, respectively, before Alex Avila picked up his first RBI with the Twins on a soft single to left, scoring Cave from second. Tyler Duffey looked very impressive in his inning of work, sitting down the top of the Cardinals’ lineup 1-2-3, all three coming on strikeouts. Dick Bremer and Roy Smalley mentioned on the broadcast how confident Duffey looks when he is out there pitching, and it is hard not to be with the success he has had since the beginning of the 2019 season. At this point, an argument can be made that Duffey is the second-best reliever, behind Taylor Rogers, in what is a very deep Twins bullpen. After Duffey worked the 6th, Baldelli called on Sergio Romo in the 7th for his second consecutive night of work, and like Duffey, Romo set the Cardinals hitters down 1-2-3. The second and third outs of the inning came on flyballs to newly inserted centerfielder Aaron Whitefield, who replaced Miguel Sano in the lineup, and moved Jake Cave over right and Marwin Gonzalez in to first. Regarding the move, Baldelli said it was all planned out, "Everything is great with Miggy. There's a few reasons why we make that move. While we have a 30-man roster, we're able to take advantage of some real strengths of our guys. Today's a day where - we weren't going to talk about it before the game - but a day we were going to try to keep Buck off of his feet. A day were were going to keep Kep off his feet. What were were able to do is bring in a really fast, really good outfielder and play him out there for a couple of innings, in Whitefield and he went out there and did a really nice job. In order to do that, we have to make a move during the game. You look at our lineup, and you really don't want to take any of our guys out of the game, but today it was going to be Miggy. I'm sure we'll see him back in there very soon. He's doing fine." In the bottom of the inning the Twins had an excellent chance to add onto their lead, after getting 1st and 3rd with only one out, after singles from Marwin Gonzalez and Luis Arraez. However, the Twins were unable to get a run across, as Josh Donaldson grounded into a fielder’s choice, getting Gonzalez out in a rundown between home and third, before Jorge Polanco fly out to end the inning. Tyler Clippard got the call in the 8th inning and gave the Twins a bit of a scare to start the inning. After giving up a leadoff single to Dexter Fowler, Clippard fell behind Matt Carpenter 3-0 before coming back to strike Carpenter out. He then got the pinch-hitter Matt Wieters to pop out to Luis Arraez, who doubled-up a stealing Fowler at first to end the inning. In the 9th, Taylor Rogers came in for his first appearance of the season, picking up the save in what was an easy inning of work for the Twins closer. The brass of the Twins bullpen, which includes Rogers, along with Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Tyler Clippard and Cody Stashak have been very impressive to start the season. So far, they have combined to pitch 13 innings, while allowing just one run and striking out 19 batters. Baldelli acknowledged after the game, "Our guys are really good baseball players. They know that we're not going to come out and put up five or ten runs every single game. That's not how it works. Especially when you play good teams." Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: Bullpen.png Postgame Pint After the game, Nick Nelson, Matthew Braun, Lucas Seehafer and John Bonnes discussed the game, looked forward to the Cleveland series and answered questions from a live virtual audience. You can download the podcast or watch the video below: Seth Stohs contributed the post-game player and manager quotes to this article. Click here to view the article

In a typical season, if a player goes on the Injured List, they might miss a couple weeks and then come back having missed perhaps less than 10 percent of the season. Now, a similar minor injury could cause a player to miss as much as 25 percent of this shortened 60-game season. This means teams will need to have a heightened sense of care for their players to help avoid injuries, especially with the lack of rest days built into the schedule.All Twins fans were holding their breath last Monday afternoon, when Byron Buxton needed to be carted off the field after chasing down a Nelson Cruz home run. Fortunately, Buxton only suffered a mild left-foot strain and could be back in action for Opening Day. Freakish accidents like this could instantly change the outlook of a team’s season. So, how might an injury or two to a key player or two affect the Twins chances this season? To find the answer to this question, we should first look at the odds on baseball for this season, to gauge where the Twins chances are to win the division heading into the season. Right now, the Twins over/under win total for the season stands at 34.5. This gives the Twins a projected couple game leg up on the Cleveland Indians (32 wins) and the Chicago White Sox (31.5 wins) heading into the season. In total, the Twins currently are -150 to win the AL Central, which means they are being given a 60 percent chance to win the division. While this isn’t the perfect indicator of how things will break down, it is a strong baseline to use for projecting the season. The next thing to look at is how many wins should the Twins expect to lose as a result of a few key players missing some games due to injury. To do this, again we will look into projections to gauge a rough estimate, this time being the ZiPS projections over at Fangraphs in order to break down the expected WAR from the top players on the Twins roster. Altogether, there are 8 players on the Twins roster who project to be worth at least 1 WAR during the 2020 season. However, when you lower the criteria down to 0.8 WAR or higher, that list expands to 13 players, which is tied with the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers for the highest in the MLB. For the purposes of this exercise, we will consider those 13 players as the key members of the Twins 2020 roster. Those 13 players include each of the 9 projected starting position players, along with 4 starting pitchers that include Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda and Randy Dobnak. For the 9 position players, they had a weighted average (based on projected number of games played per player) of 0.021 WAR per game. To put that in simpler terms, the Twins should expect to have one less win for every 48 combined games that these players miss below what they are expected to play. This number could vary depending on which player(s) have to miss time, but on average this is what we should expect. For reference, here are the ZiPS projection breakdowns for each of those 9 players. Download attachment: 8C536D16-4FFE-4915-B6A8-D49A3C276848.png Next we will analyze how missed starts by those four starting pitchers will hurt the Twins. Again, we will use the weighted average (based on the projected number of starts per pitcher) of 0.10 WAR per start. This means for every 10 starts that these four pitchers miss, the Twins should expect to win one less game. Like the hitters, here are the ZiPS projects for those four Twins starting pitchers. Download attachment: DC122E4E-993C-4833-953D-BE7BDEDF16CB.png While 48 games missed by position players, or 10 missed starts by starting pitchers, per win may seem like a lot for a mere 60-game season, it could add up very quickly if a player or two suffers a severe injury early in the season, and wind up missing that amount of time by themselves. This won’t be that hard of a thing to have happen, given that recovery times for various injuries will still take the normal amount of time. This means that even intermediate injuries that have a 6-8 week recovery time, like a wrist fracture for example, are now essentially season ending injuries. One thing to keep in mind is these numbers are reflective of these players’ projected performance over a replacement level player. With the incredible depth that the Twins have, it can be expected that the negative effects of losing one or more of these players to an injury will be less severe, as players who would play more to fill in like Marwin Gonzalez, Jake Cave, Ehrie Adrianza, Rich Hill, Michael Pineda and Homer Bailey all project to play at above replacement level. Additionally, they have players in the minor league system like Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach and Lewis Thorpe who could be called upon to provide above replacement level play as well. This is a big advantage that the Twins will have over other organizations, who don’t have this level of depth, when it comes to dealing with the inevitable loss of players throughout the season. With the extreme importance that each game will have in this shortened season, a couple games here or there that go in the “L” column instead of the “W” column could make or break the season for the Twins. Luckily, the Twins seem better prepared than most to withstand a few short-term losses, but if those losses become long-term and teams like the Indians or White Sox are able to stay healthy, it could cost the Twins any chance they had of winning the division or even making the Postseason. Click here to view the article

Cruz pinch hit in 3 of the Twins 10 interleague road games last year. He only pinch hit once in the early season’s stint at Philly and New York, which makes sense because of the cold weather. He also was dealing with a wrist injury when they made their road trip to Milwaukee last summer.

The debate for a designated hitter (DH) in both the American and National Leagues has been ongoing ever since the DH was first introduced in the American League back in 1973. Now, nearly fifty years later, we will finally see that play out as the MLB has adopted a universal DH for the 2020 season. On the face of it, it doesn’t seem like it would be a big benefit to the Twins, who already play with a DH, but when you dive into it, it could actually benefit the Twins in multiple ways.The first benefit that the universal DH will have for the Twins will affect them directly in the 2020 season. As part of the shortened 60-game schedule, the Twins will play 20 interleague games against NL Central opponents, with 10 of those games coming on the road. In past years, the Twins would not have had the benefit of a DH in road interleague games, but now the Twins will be able to use a DH in those games. This will allow the Twins to keep Nelson Cruz in their lineup, as opposed to having to leave their best hitter on the bench for 17 percent of their schedule. While it would be possible to simply play Cruz in the field during those games, the Twins already showed last year they were not willing to do that, as he didn’t start in any of their 10-road interleague games last season, and instead was reduced to a late inning pinch hitter role. In addition to getting to have Nelson Cruz in the lineup for their road interleague games, there is another benefit that a universal DH could have for the Twins that comes via the trade market, especially if the universal DH stays in effect beyond the 2020 season. The Twins organization is loaded with hitters like Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Alex Kirilloff, Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach and the newly acquired Aaron Sabato, who don’t bring a lot in the way of their defensive abelites, but have big and powerful bats at the plate. This would bring a lot of interested National League teams calling, who would suddenly need to change the structure of their lineup, if the universal DH were to stick. While some National League teams like the Chicago Cubs or the Los Angeles Dodgers would be well equipped with their current roster for a transition to the DH, that is not the case for most National League teams, who will, as a result, create a whole new market of teams looking to increase the power potential in their lineups, and will create a much higher demand for these players. For anyone that knows anything about economics, demand for a product is only one side of the equation. The other import factor that determines the price is the supply of product, in this scenario the product being potential designated hitters. Both the Yankees and Astros are intriguing teams for potential supply, as they are loaded with powerful bats up and down their lineups. The Yankees especially, who have an abundance of quality bats on the corners already at the MLB level, could look to shop players like Giovanny Urshela, Mike Tauchman, Luke Voit or Miguel Andújar to calling National League teams. However, both the Yankees and the Astros lack top end power talent in their minor league systems, which could give them pause at trading away too much depth. A couple other American League teams to watch on the DH trade market are the Seattle Mariners and Chicago White Sox, who both have some intriguing young and powerful bats in their respective organizations. While the Seattle Mariners have some excellent options in their minor league system, like Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Evan White, they don’t have a lot at the MLB level outside of Daniel Vogelbach for potential trade options, especially after they non-tendered Domingo Santana and traded away Omar Narváez to the Milwaukee Brewers at the beginning of the offseason, which will likely take the Mariners out of the market. For the White Sox, they could be a candidate for a trade, but there do not seem to be any log jams in their system, as they seem more focused on using those young bats as their core for the future. This leaves the Twins as really the only team in the American League with both an abundance of big bats at both the MLB and minor league level. This means that if they wish to trade away one or two of these bats to help the roster elsewhere, they have more flexibility than any other team to do so. It also means that they can set the market price for National League teams looking to acquire a big and powerful bat to insert into the middle of their lineups. Unfortunately, this all relies on the big if of the MLB adopting the universal DH full-time beyond 2020, but if they do, look for the Twins to be at the center of the action in a game that will change overnight. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Andrew Thares on Twitter here Click here to view the article

With Major League Baseball having officially enacted a 60-game regular season on Tuesday, we finally have some clarity on what the 2020 MLB season will look like. One of the concerns for many fans is how will this shortened season impact their team’s playoff chances. So, I decided to look back at the data to find out what we can expect the postseason chase to look like over a shortened 60-game season.As most baseball fans know, the importance of a 162-game regular season is not just an excuse to make more money for the owners, but also a needed thing to create a large enough sample size to adequately separate the good teams from the not as good teams. With the random variation of the sport of baseball, it is clear that a season that is just 37 percent of the length of a normal season will have a number of teams make that postseason, that wouldn’t have otherwise made it. So, let’s take a look to see how big of an impact the shortened season will have on the 2020 MLB Postseason picture. To find this impact, I looked back at every season dating back to 2012 (when the current playoff structure was enacted) to see how different things looked at the 60-game point of the season, versus how they looked at the end of the regular season. The first we will look at is the number of teams that made the postseason in a given season, that would not have made the postseason at the 60-game point of the season. Of the 80 teams who have made the postseason since 2012, 61 of them (76.2 percent) were in at least a tie for a postseason spot at the 60-game mark. However, of those 61 teams nine of them would have still needed to win a tie-breaker game (in some cases multiple) to actually make it into the postseason. The bigger issue though, is not with the teams that are eventually represented in the postseason, but with the teams that eventually win their division. Using the same sample of data, of the 48 teams who won their division since 2012, just 27 of them (56.3 percent) had a least a share of the division lead at the 60-game mark, with five of those 27 teams being in a tie for the division lead. In total, just 22 of the 48 teams (45.8 percent) who eventually won their division were the outright leader of their division at the 60-game point of the season. The question many fans want answered is how many games does my team need to win in order for them to make the postseason? Let’s use the below table to help us answer this question. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2020-06-26 at 1.10.02 PM.png *This chart includes teams that were at least tied for a playoff spot at the 60-game point of the season. This table illustrates how many teams have won each of the specified number of games by their 60th game of the season, along with the number of those teams that would have qualified for the postseason (including ties) had that season only been 60 games long. It is worth noting that this table does not include any teams with less than 31 wins, as none of those teams would have qualified for a postseason spot. That means we can expect 31 wins to be the bare minimum number of wins a team will need to reach the postseason this year. Another piece of information that we can draw from this table is a team will need at least 32 wins if they would like a better than not chance of reaching the postseason, and they would need to reach 35 wins (a 94.5 win pace) in order to all but guarantee themselves a spot in the postseason. However, just reaching the postseason isn’t everything, as there is also a big advantage to winning your division in the current postseason format. The table below is the same as the one above, but instead looks at if a team was in position to win their division or not. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2020-06-26 at 1.10.10 PM.png *This chart includes teams that were at least tied for the division lead at the 60-game point of the season. Again, the cutoff to make this chart is 31 wins, as no team with less than 31 wins held at least a share of a division lead over this timeframe. The two teams who had 31 wins in this sample were the 2015 Washington Nationals and the 2015 New York Mets, who were tied for the National League East division lead with records of 31-29 at the 60-game point of the season. While 32 wins is the mark that teams need to shoot for if they want at least a 50 percent chance to make the postseason, if they want to win their division, they will likely need to get to 34 wins, which is a 92 win pace over a full 162 game season. As we can see from this data, every game will have extreme importance during the 2020 MLB season. In a typical year, the average division winner wins is 95.9 games, while the average wild card team wins roughly 91.2 games, equating to a 4.7-game gap between winning the division and only being a wild card team. Over the course of a 60-game season, we can expect the average division winner to win 35.7 games, while the average wild card team will win 33.4 games, for a gap of just 2.3 games. With teams having schedules that are so heavily intradivision games, this effect will be magnified even further. For the Twins, their 10 games against the Cleveland Indians and 10 games against the Chicago White Sox will be 20 of the most impactful regular season games in franchise history. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Andrew Thares on Twitter here Click here to view the article