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rogrulz30

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  1. rogrulz30
    Why, when you play 162 games in a year does someone who loves baseball as much as I do, who knows that slumps can happen, but when only 2 Twins teams ever started 0-4, then they face 5 of the toughest pitchers in the game to follow, don't you have to be nervous that this is going to be a real long season. I just wrote about starting 0-3, not worrying yet, but today watching as much of the game as I could due to work I am nervous that this is going to be a long summer of boring baseball. I was excited for the Twins to prove people wrong, that they would be better than everyone thought, or better than the 73 wins vegas predicted. Was I so naive, and such a big homer, that I didn't see anything in front of me. YES, YES it is 4 games in, at some point I have to rant a little bit. I thought the defense would be better, I thought the offense would be a lot better with Span, Mauer, Morneau healthy, and the pitching would be suspect, but Liriano, Pavano, and Baker are in contract years, I thought they would be better. This could all still happen obviously, but is there anything to take after the first four games to be optimistic?
     
    Carroll 0/13
    Valencia 1/11 not surprising to me
    Doumit 1/10
    Parmalee 1/8
    Casilla 1/8
    Mauer 2/14
    Revere 1/6
    Span 4/15
    Morneau 4/13
    Willingham 5/13
     
    2 HR's in 4 games, I guess not surprising, 5 extra base hits in 4 games is a bit surprising. It is hard to go 4 games and get 5 extra base hits. I personally am done with Valencia, between his not improving defense, and his non ability to drive the ball to anywhere except easy double play balls and strikeouts, give him the heave ho early please, I was done w/ him half way through last year, if it wasn't for everyones injuries I don't think he would have played nearly as often as he did.
     
    Do I see 0-9 in the early future?
     
    Jered Weaver: 235.2 IP, 2.41 ERA, 198/56 K/BB, 1.01 WHIP
    Dan Haren: 238.1 IP, 3.17 ERA, 192/33 K/BB, 1.02 WHIP
    Matt Harrison: 185.2 IP, 3.39 ERA, 126/57 K/BB, 1.28 WHIP
    Yu Darvish (NPB): 232 IP, 1.44 ERA, 276/36 K/BB, 0.83 WHIP
    Neftali Feliz: 62.1 IP, 2.74 ERA, 32 SV, 54/30 K/BB, 1.16 WHIP (thanks Nick Nelson)
     
    These guys are really good, especially comparing them to what they saw in Baltimore. I guess we will see, but it doesn't look good for the Twins.
     
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1134597-minnesota-twins-why-getting-off-to-a-fast-start-to-the-2012-season-is-important, This didn't happen
     
    The 1988 Baltimore Orioles who lost the first 21 games of the season. Is this out of the realms of possibility? I think it is, but if we hit the 0-9, which is definitely in the realms of possibilities.
    4 games in and I am ranting probably because we have the Wild out, Wolves out, Gophers done in NIT fashion, Vikings are in limbo, don't know what is going to happen with them, my one glimmer of sports hope was the Twins and my excitement level has been crushed quickly!!
     
    Not giving up hope by any means as I know the seasons are long, but when you can't get excited about your favorite team at all it is depressing, the only thing I get to look forward to if the Twins are going to be horrid for the next month is opener of fishing. I hope this is my only depressing blog for awhile, but I don't know if it will.
  4. rogrulz30
    I admit this is kind of ridiculous looking at this before the beginning of the season, but being bored after watching a horrible Golden Gophers basketball game, I wanted to take a look at the Twins options if they are out of the race and looking to unload, what that looks like, and what are the options for 2013.
     
    Free Agents for the 2012 season for the Minnesota Twins
     
    Carl Pavano (37)
    Scott Baker (31) 9.25M option
    Fransicso Liriano (29)
    Ryan Doumit (32)
    Jason Marquis (34)
    Matt Capps (29) 6M option
     
    This could be a major problem, and this is what Terry Ryan has to figure out. The Twins current payroll will be right around 100M this year, if you read Phil Mackeys article on 1500ESPN http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Like_it_or_not_scaling_back_payroll_is_right_move_for_Twins010512, it makes perfect sense to keep the payroll where it is. The entire season revolves around Mauer, Morneau, Span. Not to mention, look at the contract years for our starters. We do have major problems at the starting pitcher position after this year, we don't have the minor leagues to help us right now. Here is a list of the FA starting pitchers, thanks MLBtraderumors.com
     

    Scott Baker (31) - $9.25MM club option
    Erik Bedard (34)
    Joe Blanton (32)
    Matt Cain (28)
    Fausto Carmona (29) - $9MM club option
    Bartolo Colon (40)
    Aaron Cook (34)
    Kevin Correia (32)
    Jorge De La Rosa (32) - $11MM player option with a $1MM buyout
    Ryan Dempster (36)
    R.A. Dickey (38) - $5MM club option with a $300K buyout
    Zach Duke (30)
    Scott Feldman (29) - $9.25MM club option with a $600K buyout
    Jeff Francis (31)
    Gavin Floyd (30) - $9.5MM club option
    Freddy Garcia (37)
    Zack Greinke (28)
    Jeremy Guthrie (34)
    Cole Hamels (29)
    Rich Harden (31)
    Dan Haren (32) - $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout
    Livan Hernandez (38)
    Tim Hudson (37) - $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Edwin Jackson (29)
    Hiroki Kuroda (38)
    Colby Lewis (33)
    Francisco Liriano (29)
    Kyle Lohse (34)
    Rodrigo Lopez (37)
    Derek Lowe (40)
    Paul Maholm (31) - $6.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
    Shaun Marcum (31)
    Jason Marquis (34)
    Daisuke Matsuzaka (32)
    Brandon McCarthy (29)
    Kevin Millwood (38)
    Brett Myers (32) - $10MM vesting option with a $3MM buyout
    Carl Pavano (37)
    Jake Peavy (31) - $22MM club option with a $4MM buyout
    Anibal Sanchez (29)
    Jonathan Sanchez (30)
    Ervin Santana (30) - $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Joe Saunders (32)
    James Shields (31) - $9MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
    Chien-Ming Wang (33)
    Jake Westbrook (35) - $8.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout if club declines
    Randy Wolf (36) - $10MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
    Chris Young (34)
    Carlos Zambrano (32)


     
    What I can't do is determine what teams are going to be in races, or teams that need a starter after an injury that may be in the race, if we are out of the race in July, what are the best options? Do we resign Scott Baker for the 9 Million, are we shopping Liriano this season, I am sure Pavano would be the first to go. One thing that most concerns me is we have 1 pitcher signed as a starter in 2013, Nick Blackburn. So not only do we not have anything close to an Ace now, we don't even have a #1, #2, or #3 in 2013. Look how many free agents are going to be under the age of 30? The Twins were banking on Kyle Gibson, and then he needs Tommy John, as a Twins fan I hope he comes back to be the talent he has to offer.
     
    Kyle Gibson R (24) ETA 2013
    Liam Hendricks R (23) ETA 2012
    Adrian Salcedo R (20) ETA 2014
    Hudson Boyd R (19) ETA 2015
    Alex Wimmers R (23) ETA 2014
    Manuel Soliman R (22) ETA 2015
    Madison Boer R (22) ETA 2014
    Corey Williams L (21) ETA 2013
    Matt Hauser R (23) ETA 2012
     
    These are the Twins top pitching prospects, not one of these are on MLB top 100. Looking at 2013, looking at projections we add Gibson, Hendricks, Hauser, Williams. We need pitching prospects that can help us the next coming years. My guess is we sign Scott Baker if he stays healthy, Kyle Gibson makes his way into the rotation, then we have Blackburn. If we are in the mix, who are we going to trade, we don't have that much to give up, although we do have a big draft coming up. If the Twins get Mark Appel from Stanford in the draft, that will definitely help, as he is predicted to be a "franchise" pitcher, we would maybe be able to look at giving up an outfielder. This will also be a big year for Ben Revere. If you look up the free agent list for outfield, you will also see a name all of us know, Torii Hunter. This will be an interesting scenario if Revere doesn't have a good season, we would still have Span, Willingham, and Plouffe, we would need something off the bench as well as an outfielder, who may be able to start as well. The way I look at how the outfield looks, I can easily see the Twins signing Hunter at a pretty low price. This is really going to be an interesting first 40 games of the season, then see how we use Marquis, Pavano, and Liriano as trade bait, and see what we can get for them.
  5. rogrulz30
    70 wins 92 losses was the consensus on the simulations from Zips. ESPN, and the bloggers from SweetSpots blogs have the prediction of the AL Central:
     
    Tigers
    Royals
    Indians
    Twins
    White Sox
     
    WHY AM I OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE TWINS THIS YEAR? SOMEBODY HELP ME? HELP ME TO THE FACT THAT I AM NOT THAT MUCH OF A HOMER TO THINK THE TWINS WILL WIN MORE THAN 75 GAMES, AND BE BETTER THAN THE ROYALS? Or am I crazy!?!?!?!?
     
    The Twins are going to score runs, I think that is obvious if the Twins can stay healthy with Morneau and Mauer, they have looked good and healthy so far this spring, last 5 games Morneaus is batting .471, Mauer is batting .340 this spring. Parmalee and Hughes have been impressive this spring, interesting to see how much they play to give Mauer and Morneau breaks this year. So once again I look at the lineup, you look and see
     
    Span
    Carroll
    Mauer
    Morneau
    Willingham
    Doumit
    Valencia
    Casilla
    Revere
     
    This is definitely a Gardy lineup, if he can get those guys running, (Span/Revere/Casilla), we have guys who can hit the ball out of the yard, and we have guys that can walk, and get hits. Please Twins stay Healthy, I like this lineup!!!!
     
    The pitching staff is weak, if the projections are based off of the rotation last year, there aren't many wins in this group. Liriano, Baker, Slowey, were injured last year, Duensing didn't know where he was going to be in any week, Perkins found a new spot, injuries killed the Twins like no other. As of today Pavano, Liriano, Blackburn, Marquis are healthy, Baker is up in the air, seems he could be good for opener though. If the rotation is healthy, Baker and Liriano step up to their talent level, the rotation is pretty decent, now you can go Liriano, Baker, Pavano! The back end is really up in the air, Duensing, Perk, and Capps at least have expereince and they know what is going to happen, now Duensing may be battling for Marquis', but I think either way I like him. I don't like Burnett, and or the rest of the relief. Having solid relief is really important if you have injury prone starting pitchers. This is the biggest problem with the Twins relief, if the relief doesn't get rest, they struggle. This is a very common problem in any rotation. THIS IS WHY WE PLAY THE GAMES RIGHT! I CANT WAIT TIL BASEBALL STARTS, blogs, spring training, hypotheticals, odds, I have to tell you it is fun to try to predict, fun to hope, I really want the season to start, I want to see where the Twins stand after 35 games this year. I also have a bet with the same person that I took the Brewer bet with that the Twins would be ahead of the Royals in the standings in the AL Central. Twins, please beat the Royals, if that one thing happens, I will take it. Go Twins!!
  6. rogrulz30
    It's my blog and I can talk about what I want to, which is great and I hope people enjoy the fun I am going to have this year writing everyday things. I just returned from Las Vegas, spending a great time betting on NCAA basketball, (which went horribly bad), and doing a lot of drinking w/ my really good friends. First stop was Fremont, of course this is my favorite place to go because of the type of people and shenanigans you run into, and quite frankly it is less expensive to do things. We had quite a group out, and one shot leads to another shot, and we end up going to a club above the Golden Nuggett, yep, that is what we chose, I don't remember what it was called, I knew it cost $10 to get it, and it turned into dancing and getting drunk and not caring about anything for about 4 hours, don't remember how I got home, just know i GOT THERE. 3 days of watching basketball and drinking, and ripping on my friends, and friends animals was as fun as you can have, didn't even go the strip, ( I lived there for 3 years, and visit every other year) I love March Madness, this year was the first year w/o Gus Johnson and WE NEED HIM BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have to tell you I absolutely love Gus Johnson, for him to not be in the tournament is an absolute joke. Seriously the games were not really that exciting besides a couple, and of course my Dukies had to go out of the tourney, along with that I had Missouri in the final game, so my bracket got severely busted. This isn't even to mention that I lost almost every game I bet on for the first two days, Thank God for friends and booze.
     
    As I was in Vegas, where the weather was about 65 degrees, it was between 70 and 81 in Duluth, MN!!! Winters are long in the northland, and this time of year kicks ass, weather is nice, baseball is in the air, basketball and hockey are getting close to the playoffs, and of course the NCAA tournament. I love fishing, golfing, and anything in the outdoor sun especially in the summer. I can't wait now for opener of Twins baseball, and opener of fishing. The weather and the amount of sports brings everyone in a good mood!
     
    Since it is a Twins blog, I should talk a little about the Twins. Spring training doesn't do much for me except bring the excitement for the year. Obviously right now it comes down to whether Morneau can be healthy and the starting pitching is consistent. SI picked the Twins to end up 4th in the division, so every major sports writer has the Twins 4th or last this year, I really want this year to be better, I want at least a run. C'Mon Twins!!!!! At this point all we can do is watch and speculate, Pavano's start today didn't go very well, again, not sure what to think about the veterans in spring training. All I can say right now is Go Kansas, and go Gophers!!!
  7. rogrulz30
    I am looking ahead a little bit, but if you look at the Twins schedule early in the year, look out! The begin the season in Baltimore, that is fine, but then look what the schedule holds for us in order: Home, Angels (3) Home, Rangers (3) Away, Yankees (4) Away, Rays (3) Home, Red Sox (3) Home, Royals (3) Away, Angels (3) Away, Mariners (3) Home, Angels (3) Home, Blue Jays (4) That is very ugly, if you look realistically at that beginning I am seeing a start for the Twins record after the first 35 games is maybe 14-21. I don't have all the data right now, I am guessing that has to be one of the toughest schedules in the league for the first 35 games.
    I am really going to be curious to see this year is the overall records of the AL East, with Toronto, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees beating up on each other it is going to be tough for anybody to really get to 95 wins, which makes an interesting fight for that second wild card spot, which is most likely going to come out of the AL West, whether it be the Angels or Rangers. I actually really like the expansion of the playoff system. Teams like the 2010 Yankees were able to tank the last part of the year to hand pick their playoff opponent, it didn't matter if they were wild card or division winners.
     
    I like to make wagers and I wanted to post a couple of my wagers this year in baseball. I said earlier I took the Twins over 73.5 for reasons I put out in my last post, I also took the Astros at under 63.5 based on this lineup:
     
    Jordan Schafer (played 132 games in the MLB) projected -.4 WARP
    Jose Altuve (played 57 games in the MLB) projected .7 WARP
    J.D. Martinez (played 53 games in the MLB) projected 1.2 WARP
    Carlos Lee projected 2.1 WARP
    Brian Bogusevic (played 106 games in the MLB) projected .4 WARP
    Jed Lowrie (played 256 games in MLB) projected 1.3 WARP
    Jimmy Paredes (played 46 games in MLB) projected -1.0 WARP
    Chris Snyder projected .8 WARP
     
    Rotation
     
    Wandy Rodriguez
    Bud Norris
    J.A. Happ
    Livan Hernandez
    Jordan Lyles
     
    I have heard of 3 of those players in the lineup and Wandy Rodriguez is the only good starter on the rotation.
     
    This team is going to be playing the Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals, which are all very good teams this year. This team was 26th or worse in the league in almost every category that has a big time stat on, Runs per Game, Runs Againster per Game, Score differential per game, They are down two of the 3 best VORP players. How is this team going to win more games than they won last year. They won 56 games last year, I can't see them being better?
     
    Arizona u 86.5
     
    Miami Marlins over 85.5 (yes I am jumping on this wagon) even though they are going to have the Phillies and Braves in this division, the NL is weak this year, I am not sold on the Giants, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Cardinals. So it will be a tough division, other than that I think they will win maybe 90 games even.
     
    Detroit u 92 They need help on the left side defensively, this one is very close, Verlander is great, the lineup is very good, defensively could be a huge weakness
     
    New York Mets o 73.5 this is close as well, hopefully Johan is healthy
     
    Phillies u 93.5 I think this is there last year to win a world series, health and age is a concern now
     
    Cleveland o 78.5 I wasn't sold on Cleveland at all last year, I won a nice prop bet last year saying they wouldn't make the playoffs after their hot start, this year if they are healthy will be around .500
     
    Toronto u 80.5 Bautista really fell, I think pitchers figured out how to pitch to him, if he had as signal caller it is gone now, they play in the East.
     
    Dodgers u 81.5 mediocre team at best after Kershaw and Kemp, don't think they will be .500
     
    Padres o 73.5 poor division the pitching staff although young could be decent in that division, I like where this team is going
     
    Royals u 79.5 What??? I have been wrong with the Royals the last 2 years, I thought they would be better, I couldn't believe I saw 79.5 for the Royals this year, and the Twins at 73.5, Royals 6 games better than a healthy Twins team. Yes last year they were 8 games better from a depleted Twins program
     
    Angels u 92.5 I think that early line is a Pujols line and that will go down, I think the under on that is a good bet.
     
    I love posting these, then looking at this in October. Should be fun following these lines. Last year I ended up betting 7 teams and was 4-3, which isn't good, but fun
  9. rogrulz30

    Changing the MLB Draft

    By rogrulz30,

    As I have the opportunity to watch Spring Training Baseball and watching all of the future MN Twins and future MLB players it got me thinking about the MLB Draft. Seems like an odd time to talk about the 2020 MLB draft, since that takes place on June 10th. The Twins have the 22nd selection this year and there are 40 rounds to draft more future players. I wanted to just write about how I would love the MLB draft to change, and the changes I would make to not only the draft but how the MLB draft could help change the competitive landscape of all MLB teams and keep the fan base fore every team interested longer.
     
    Lets start with the basic premise on the current draft style. Each team gets a draft pick in the first round based off of the previous years performance. Simply put, other than some oddities the worst team the previous year gets the number 1 pick in the draft. The World Series winner would get the 30th pick in the MLB draft. This year is a bit different as the Astros have the first 2 picks nullified through the cheating scandal and the Nationals have the 22nd pick vs the 29th pick. In the current format picks cannot be traded and the draft is held in June. There are compensatory picks each year that are called round A and B. This is competitive balance picks for free agents that don't sign with the previous team that signs a contract over $50 million $'s and the team that signs that free agent gives up that pick, which ranges in the number pick it is. Very simple process that has some strategy due to the slot $ allotment, but there are 40 rounds in the draft.
     
    Currently the MLB draft is held on the MLB channel, ( which I absolutely love that channel as I could watch it all day) the team is on the clock and the announcers talk about the team needs and who they think they may draft, they have a certain amount of time to talk about the player drafted and the team that player goes to. For what its worth they do a good enough job based off of the data they have to make it somewhat compelling to hardcore baseball fans. Here is how I would change it all:
     
    I would introduce an auction style draft, but in this auction style draft I would like to set up some MLB rules that allows money to be distributed to teams a bit differently. First the base premise of an auction draft is you start with a certain amount of money and you pick a player, you start at a bid of (we will say $1, but can be whatever you set the rules at). The only rule is you have to have $1 left for each round you have left to pick the player. If you start with $100, and there are 10 rounds you can only spend up to $91 on the first player because you have to have $1 left for each of the other rounds because you pick the player that will be drafted and if there are no other bidders on that player you have to buy the player for that $1. So that is what we are going to go with except there are rules for each to team to get and accumulate $'s for lets say the 2022 draft. Here are some of the rules before the draft starts:
     
    I would change Free Agency to a 2 week signing period that starts the day after the Super Bowl. Free agency period lasts for 2 weeks. After the Free Agency period is over each team understands that they still have gaps and trade season happens before the draft that starts the week before Pitchers and Catchers report to Spring Training. Now this is where the other rules of $'s come into play. Here is where changing the landscape of how each team gets money makes competition and spending money to be competitive comes into play.
     
    Right now the average $'s spent on a MLB team is about $129 million. If you take the average spent and you take the bottom team money spent which is the Orioles this year you get kind of a mean from the average to the bottome which is $87 million. MLB has a luxury tax threshold on spending too much, but they don't have a bottom $'s spent penalty and I think there should be. For every $5 million spent under the $87 million you get a $1k penalty in the auction draft $'s you receive. This puts a bottom on the $'s spent without a penalty and that can change each year. This would be the first step in having more team competitive. Next step:
     
    Right now the worst team in MLB gets the #1 pick in the draft. I want to give every team an opportunity to get the best player, but I also want the teams that didn't make the playoffs the year before to get the best chance. What if the 15th best team in MLB got the biggest advantage in the MLB draft. A couple of thoughts on why: 10 teams currently get into the playoffs in baseball. Usually another 4 teams are really vying to get in the playoffs and they typically put the best efforts in the rest of the year to get in. What if in an auction style draft we give the 15th placed team the most amount of $s to spend, then the next 7 after that would get $1k less than the $30k on down, then the worst to first teams after that. So 15th gets $30k, WS champs gets $15k.
    Now instead of the Tigers essentially getting the first pick the 15th best team gets the most amount of money, then next 5 teams, then start with the worst team in MLB which would be the Tigers, then the 10th best team that made the playoffs until the WS Winner. That sounds complicated, but it really isn't. Just $1k increments from the most money to the lowest money to WS Champion
     
    Each MLB team gets a minimum of $15k to start the MLB draft, the minimum amount the starting bid is $1k. The max amount that you get based off of the standings is $30k, this doesn't not include what you would get for compensatory picks, as those get added/subtracted based on what those values actually are in comp A and B. A math person can figure out the values of those, and if you didn't spend $87 million you get a penalty for that. All together though no team can start the draft without at least $15k, this is what is distributed after the end of the season. The fun part of this is. A, you don't need to spend all of your allotted money on this years draft, B, during the year you have the opportunity to trade for draft $'s, C this gives every team more incentive to try all year, D, Every player in the draft can go to any team any year. One last part of this draft is the Auction draft only goes the first 6 rounds, after 6 rounds the worst team in MLB starts round 7 and now goes back to a snake draft that starts with the worst team and goes to the best team. The other part of this is the first 6 rounds would have 180 players, MLB picks the top 200 players that will be part of the auction draft.
     
    So to summarize, each MLB team needs to spend money on players and needs to spend a minimum or they get penalized in draft $'s. The 15th best team in MLB gets awarded the most amount of draft $'s vs the worst team in MLB. MLB picks the top 200 players that are going to be part of the auction and there will be a 6 round auction draft that includes 30 MLB teams, unless someone cheats again. After 6 rounds the worst MLB team from the previous year starts the snake draft that goes the rest of the 40 rounds. You are now allowed to use trade $'s in any MLB trade. There is still an allotted amount that is based off of the players that the most amount of $ gets spent on them, very similar to the allotment that goes to pick 1-30.
     
    I know there is a lot of baseball guys in this blogging room, I know you will through a lot of holes you will throw in this, but me personally I would love a new style draft and more competition between all teams similar to the NFL. Let me know your thoughts.
  10. rogrulz30
    This has probably been said multiple times yesterday and today, but I am going to say it again, one of my favorite times of the year, MLB opener!!! Our beloved Minnesota Twins start the 2014 season in Chicago at 3:10 vs Chris Sale and the Chicago White Sox. Before the game, it only makes sense to give projections and thoughts on what the Twins are going to accomplish this year. Here are all of my random thoughts and predictions for 2014 and your Minnesota Twins.
     
    I have heard every opinion out there from hardballtallk.com, SI.com, ESPN.com, and every writer and sportscaster in the twin cities picking the team to have a 90 loss season once again. This puts the Twins with a maximum of 72 wins. The offseason would have had to added 7 wins this year from last years 66 win performance. 7 wins in a division that is better than last year, (except for the White Sox) is tough to do, especially when they didn't add any bats to the lineup, and got worse at C in terms of offense. I am putting the Twins at 70 wins this season, 4th in the Central. Here are the reasons and predictions.
     
    Ricky Nolasco will be Ricky Nolasco. Consistent in IP, ERA, and K's. Yes he is coming from the NL, but pitching at Target Field offsets some of the AL/NL difference. 3.80 ERA 200 IP getting 14 wins this season.
     
    Phil Hughes will be much better than pitcher we saw in NY. I am not saying moving over is the biggest difference ever, or going to transcend Hughes, I am saying he is going to welcome Target Field, and welcome the Twins loving media here. A change of scenery is exactly what Hughes needed, the Twins have wanted him for years and now is his chance. 3.95 ERA 200 IP 12 wins this season
     
    Mike Pelfrey, my favorite signing of the season, especially at that price. I think he needed this year after the Tommy John thing, and is going to have the most surprising year of anybody on the pitching side of the rotation. Another 4.00 ERA season, keeps the Twins in games, and gets them to a good bullpen, which helps him get 10 wins this season. He should also finish around 200IP this season. (Caveat to Pelfrey is he is probably one of the first rotation guys to get traded this season, which changes MN Twins stats)
     
    Kevin Correia, my favorite signing last year. I was a big fan of the Twins signing Correia last year, and he was the only one that fulfilled what the Twins were looking for. I guess you can look for the same things this year from Correia 4.20 ERA, along with 10 wins, 185 IP.
     
    Kyle Gibson, everyones person in wait last two years is finally here, in the rotation healthy. The Twins marketing directors have put him as a top of the roation guy for years, and in reality he should be a solid 3. He is healthy, and this should be his year to start making that push to be a good 3. Help is coming in the rotation with Meyer/May, and adding a good Gibson would be nice to see. If you split some of the difference from Minor League ball to MLB experience, we can put Gibson at that 4.2 ERA, hoping for 160 IP, 9 W and holding on to that rotation spot until one or two of the other guys in the rotation gets traded in July, then you have Gibson and Deduno in the rotation, and probably seeing Meyer making appearances this season.
     
    All being said, the rotation is much better!!! This doesn't include the fact of Suzuki being a great defensive catcher, and the Twins wanted him to call games and help the roation, he will do that!! 55 Wins for the starting rotation vs. 35 W, over 11 different starters that included these names: Pedro Hernandez, Andrew Albers, Cole Devries, Scott Diamond, PJ Walters, Vance Worley, Liam Hendriks, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Samuel Deduno, Kyle Gibson. What a difference in the rotation from 1 year to the next!!!! My projections are not that overly homer IMO, and I really think w/o injury, and even if, we have depth with Deduno and Meyer this season.
     
    Getting into games deeper will be a huge difference this season, as the bullpen was good last year, and it hasn't changed. The Twins will be in more games this year. The rotation makes the difference to make it to 70 wins, and could bolster the Twins season to get to 73 wins.
     
    The lineup has a lot of flaws:
     
    1. We don't have a leadoff hitter, my prediction is Aaron Hicks will be our leadoff hitter come June. Aaron Hicks will be the most improved Twins player this season, and that isn't that bold of a statement after batter under the Mendoza line last year.
     
    2. Willingham is old, and Arcia K's too often. Where is the runs going to come from after Mauer hits a double to the gap and we didn't have a guy on base.
     
    3. Bottom 3rd of the lineup is atrocious. Florimon, Suzuki, ?? not sure how the lineup is going to play out, but we are not going to get production out of that bottom.
     
    All reality is the Twins are going to be in the bottom of the AL in runs scored unless Plouffe finds his magic from his 24 HR season, Willingham has something left int he tank and stays on the field, Arcia doesn't strikeout every 3rd AB, and Hicks really improves from last year. That is a lot of ???'s and hopes. This is the reason why the Twins will still lose 90 games this season.
     
    The lineup needs to look like this by May to have a chance to score more runs.
    Hicks
    Dozier
    Mauer
    Willingham
    Arcia
    Plouffe
    Kubel
    Suzuki
    Florimon
     
    I am guessing by September it is going to look like this:
     
    Hicks
    Dozier
    Mauer
    Arcia
    Sano (DH)
    Plouffe
    Buxton
    Suzuki
    Florimon
     
    Which transitions into 2015. I know I put Sano in there, they did say they are not ruling him out for DH, and to bring fans into the stadium in September I can see this happening.
     
    Overall this team is watchable, in my previous blog I didn't have too much positivity, and I don't as far as record, but I can easily see the Twins being in many more games when you compare depth and talent in the starting rotation, it isn't even close.
     
    Tigers winning the division
    Cleveland
    KC
    Twins
    Chicago
     
    I am betting on the over for the Twins this season, just based off rotation improvement. I am more than rooting for a few players to really succeed this season. Plouffe, Pelfrey, Hicks, I can't wait for the opening pitch today as everyone has a new record and a chance to compete in 2014. Go Twins!!!!!
  11. rogrulz30
    After a grueling unwatchable 2013 season our Minnesota Twins signed two of the biggest free agent signings in Twins history, Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes. We all know that, we added Pelfrey to the mix, and we already had Correia. 4/5 of the rotation is set, good news for Twins Territory, right?
     
    Thinking about the off season moves, and the moves the Twins made during 2013, it seems we were set up to make some major moves in free agency, I don't think the Twins had a choice. I do find it funny we signed the two biggest acquisitions for the Twins in free agency on two pitchers that would barely make a #3 on a good team. One of our choices had a 5.19 ERA last year. We signed Pelfrey for two years as well and he also had a 5.19 ERA last year.
     
    After having the worst ERA in MLB last year, we signed three sought after free agents and we are still projected to be the 3rd worst rotation in MLB!!! First, that shows how bad the rotation was last year. 2nd, that shows how poorly Bill Smith and company did retaining and judging talent. 3rd we significantly improved from last year, yet we are a miracle away from competing still. What happened??
     
    I look forward to every season of MLB, I look forward to always having a chance, except I got spoiled in the 2000's, and this year I am really trying to be a realist. I can always hope things go right for the Twins, but when I mention miracle from earlier, I am going to shoot out the realities of this season, and what miracles have to happen to be relevant in August.
     
    Realities
     
    1. Atlantis sports book just released over/under on wins. Minnesota Twins over/under is 65.5.
     
    2. Bleacher Report has the Twins as the 2nd worst rotation in MLB, ESPN has the Twins as the 3rd worst rotation in MLB.
     
    3. Fangraphs has the Twins 28th in the MLB in runs scored.
     
    4. The Twins PR department is really good at there jobs, Paul Allen sells hope, the Twins PR team has taken notes from him, we signed big free agents, which was a must for the team to even be competitive in MLB, and yet they still have a lower payroll than last year.
     
    5. The Minnesota Twins are projected to be one of the worst teams in MLB!!!
     
    Miracles, and how fans like me hope for.
     
    1. Phil Hughes was pitching for the wrong team and in the wrong stadium. Phil Hughes was a very talented prospect for the Yankees, a change of scenery sets a better stage for Phil Hughes talent.
     
    2. Mike Pelfrey is in his 2nd year after Tommy John, My belief is this was the best signing the Twins did this off season. I think Pelfrey will be much better this year, and I was very glad that he is with the team this season.
     
    3. Willingham, Plouffe, Parmelee, Kubel have significantly better seasons and stay healthy. All four have had signs of being above average, and to score runs this year they have to come through and stay in the lineup. Willingham is in his contract year, Plouffe has Sano behind him, Kubel is coming back to try and recreate 2012, Parmelee is about at his last efforts to gain a starting spot here.
     
    4. Joe Mauer stays healthier, keeps his legs under him and is able to hit for more power, and not start a decline in productivity.
     
    5. Aaron Hicks can turn it around at AAA and be able to be a productive lead off hitter. I am sure Presley is going to start the year, we can only hope after Hicks had a real off season, added 10 pounds that he can produce, and make the starting lineup this season for the Twins.
     
    This year is probably my first year that I am expecting to be a bottom feeder and I am not going to get sold on hope, I am going to root for the miracles that I have listed and if they happen I will be a very happy fan. They have done a phenomenal job selling Meyer, Sano, Buxton, reality is they won't be starters for the Twins til at least 2015. I got sold hope on those 3, and sold hope on landing the 2 biggest free agents in Twins history, I am not buying anything until I see it. I AM HOPING AND PULLING FOR MIRACLES, and I still can't wait for MLB to start in 2014.
  12. rogrulz30
    I only know the "Twins Way". The Twins way in my lifetime has pretty much been this:
     
    Solid pitching, pitch to contact guys, throw strikes, eliminate the free pass.
     
    Solid defense, the Twins more the most part of the last 20 years has been very solid, and preached.
     
    Sac/bunting guys over, taking the extra base, hit and run. "Piranha" "Domeball". Doing so requires guys good with the bats, hitting with RISP.
     
     
    The last 5 games for the Minnesota Twins, the Twins have scored 22 runs, 22 of those runs have come from HR. I don't remember ever seeing anything like this, ever for the Twins. Yes I know it is a small sample size, and that is not the point I am going to be making. The Twins are batting .241 (26th) this year, with a .385 (22nd) SLG%. The last 14 days the Twins have a SLG% of .414 (10th) .227 (26th) batting avg. What a difference SLG% makes in winning baseball games.
     
    Of course I don't expect the Twins to continue this long ball surge, but isn't it fun having guys that have an opportunity to hit the ball out of the park. Dozier in the leadoff spot hitting for more than just avg. Morneau finding his groove back, Willingham is turning into an Adam Dunn, but Dunn hits over 30 HR a year. If Plouffe can find it, he always has a chance, then Arcia is just fun to watch. Last 30 days the Twins have 5 guys that have .422 or larger SLG%. Arcia, Dozier, Morneau, Colabello, Mauer, all of these guys are going to be around for awhile. (I know Morneau may not be here, I hope he is though)
     
    A lot of things get overlooked when guys are hitting the ball over the fence, I guarantee w/ losing 3/5 or 4/5 of those games I would just be so irate every game watching them squander leadoff doubles, 1st/3rd 1 out, leadoff walks and not ever scoring runs. The Twins have to hit the long ball right now to overlook how poorly they can score runs when high % chances get squandered over and over. Like everyone says in anything winning solves just about everything. If you look at the Twins lineup going forward into next year, and year after there is a chance to have "pop" in the lineup that I haven't seen in the years I have been alive, which is going to be a lot different than I am used to.
     
    Storylines always come up in baseball, even though the Twins are 10 games under .500, there are reasons to watch the games, makes you look forward to competitiveness. In case you haven't noticed check out some of the teams the Twins have a chance to have a better record then.
     
    Big Free Agent signings, Big market teams.
     
    Toronto
    LA Angels
    NY Mets
    SF Giants
    Phillies
    Nationals
     
    Would the Twins have won that many more games signing a big 2013 free agent? The answer is no. Did the Twins build the farm system this year? Yes. The fan base gets irritated when the Pohlads don't spend money to get better. Reality is the best teams right now have done it through the farm system. You take a chance when the chance presents itself to win a championship and those days could be coming if they continue to improve in each position. The Twins could be consistent, and have a chance in the upcoming seasons and you can only look forward to it. I look forward to watching the rest of the season w/ more storylines coming soon, Albers continuing his phenomenal start, Deduno's chances to make the rotation next year, Sano/Buxton getting a call, waiver deadline, Arcia, Dozier, Morneau. Go Twins!!
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