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For the first time since 2017, the Minnesota Twins opted to make a pick in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft. They selected right-handed pitcher Eiberson Castellano, a Philadelphia Phillies prospect. Image courtesy of Reading Fightin Phils Eiberson Castellano spent most of last season with Philadelphia's High-A affiliate, Jersey Shore. He pitched to a 4.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings over 63 1/3 frames there (14 games, 12 starts). That earned the 6-foot-3 righthander a promotion to Double-A Reading, where he pitched even better. Castellano had a 3.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 in eight Double-A starts (40 1/3 innings). Altogether, he logged 103 2/3 frames in 2024. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, a Rule 5 Draft enthusiast, called Castellano “one of the most talked-about names pre-draft. One of the better combos of stuff and readiness.” Thomas Nestico of TJ Stats ranked Castellano among his 10 intriguing pitchers that may be selected, complimenting him on a solid three-pitch mix and all-around average profile. Castellano’s fastball sits in the mid-90s, topping out at 97 mph. He compliments that with a mid-80s changeup and low-80s slider. A product of Venezuela, Castellano had primarily been in the bullpen and did not have an encouraging 2023. He posted a 5.04 ERA in 50 innings over 22 appearances for Philadelphia's Florida State League affiliate. As you would expect, that poor performance put Castellano completely off the prospect map. To see him not only reach Double-A but excel once promoted would have been very difficult to predict at this time a year ago. Castellano ranked 10th in K-BB% among the 373 pitchers to log at least 40 innings in Double-A last season. He had a 25.3 K% and 5.6 BB%. That impressive turnaround earned Castellano the award for Phillies top minor league pitcher in 2024. It’s no secret that the Twins are handcuffed by their own payroll limitations this offseason. Luckily, there are some avenues to add talent that don’t require major financial commitments. The Rule 5 Draft is an opportunity to get creative and add talent without impacting payroll. Here’s a quick overview of how things work: The intent: The Rule 5 Draft is in place to prevent teams from being able to hoard prospects. Any player signed at 18 or younger becomes eligible after their fifth season and those signed at 19 or older become eligible after their fourth season. The appeal: It’s as close to a free player as you’re gonna get in Major League Baseball. It costs $100,000 to draft a player. That money goes to the player's former club. The issue: Rule 5 picks during the MLB phase have to remain on your active 26-man roster or else they’re returned to their original org. A draftee can be placed on the IL, but only if they are legitimately hurt. The last time the Twins made a pick: Tyler Kinley in 2017, who was eventually returned to the Marlins. The Twins not only added an intriguing arm, they also retained all of their in-house players who were eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. That group included Kala’i Rosario, Ricardo Olivar and Jovani Moran, among others. Whether they'll be able to get Castellano up to speed and ready for big-league pressure by the end of spring training is an open question, but he seems to have been one of the higher-upside selections available, and they're showing a renewed willingness at least to fish in those waters. Minor League Phase In the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft, the cost to acquire a player drops to $24,000 and there is no roster restriction requiring these players to be rostered at a certain level. Anyone not on a 40-man or Triple-A roster is eligible. The Twins selected four players in the minor league phase last year (Rafael Marcano, Rafael Escalante, Angel Del Rosario and Sheldon Reed). Here are the Twins selections in this phase: Round 1: Trent Baker, RHP, Cardinals Round 2: Miguel Briceno, OF, Brewers Round 3: Jefferson Valladares, C, Dodgers Drafted in the ninth round of the 2021 Draft, Baker pitched to a 4.89 ERA in 81 innings with the Cardinals’ Double-A team last season while averaging 9.0 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9. Baker logged seven more innings in the Arizona Fall League. He turns 26 later this month. Back in 2019, Baker pitched with the Mankato Moondogs of the Northwoods League, a college summer league based in the Midwest. Briceno is a 21-year-old utility man from Venezuela. He hit .277/.321/.365 (.685) in 94 games with the Brewers Low-A affiliate. In addition to appearing at six positions in the field, Briceno also pitched six times. Third base was his primary position. Reminds me of the “anything for the team” mentality of former Twin Eduardo Escobar. Valladares, 22, has been a productive hitter in the minors but lacks much of a track record. Over the past four seasons, he’s hit .303/.431/.453 (.866 OPS), but it’s come over just 406 combined plate appearances. The Venezuela product has seen most of his time in the field at first base, but does also have some catching experience. And here are the players the Twins lost in this phase: Taylor Floyd, RHP, taken in Round 2 by the Mariners Floyd, who recently turned 27, was acquired by the Twins as the player to be named later in a 2023 trade that sent Trevor Megill to Milwaukee. Floyd had a 4.04 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 in 64 2/3 innings for Wichita last season. View full article
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- eiberson castellano
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Minnesota Twins Select RHP Eiberson Castellano in 2024 Rule 5 Draft
Tom Froemming posted an article in Twins
Eiberson Castellano spent most of last season with Philadelphia's High-A affiliate, Jersey Shore. He pitched to a 4.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings over 63 1/3 frames there (14 games, 12 starts). That earned the 6-foot-3 righthander a promotion to Double-A Reading, where he pitched even better. Castellano had a 3.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 in eight Double-A starts (40 1/3 innings). Altogether, he logged 103 2/3 frames in 2024. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, a Rule 5 Draft enthusiast, called Castellano “one of the most talked-about names pre-draft. One of the better combos of stuff and readiness.” Thomas Nestico of TJ Stats ranked Castellano among his 10 intriguing pitchers that may be selected, complimenting him on a solid three-pitch mix and all-around average profile. Castellano’s fastball sits in the mid-90s, topping out at 97 mph. He compliments that with a mid-80s changeup and low-80s slider. A product of Venezuela, Castellano had primarily been in the bullpen and did not have an encouraging 2023. He posted a 5.04 ERA in 50 innings over 22 appearances for Philadelphia's Florida State League affiliate. As you would expect, that poor performance put Castellano completely off the prospect map. To see him not only reach Double-A but excel once promoted would have been very difficult to predict at this time a year ago. Castellano ranked 10th in K-BB% among the 373 pitchers to log at least 40 innings in Double-A last season. He had a 25.3 K% and 5.6 BB%. That impressive turnaround earned Castellano the award for Phillies top minor league pitcher in 2024. It’s no secret that the Twins are handcuffed by their own payroll limitations this offseason. Luckily, there are some avenues to add talent that don’t require major financial commitments. The Rule 5 Draft is an opportunity to get creative and add talent without impacting payroll. Here’s a quick overview of how things work: The intent: The Rule 5 Draft is in place to prevent teams from being able to hoard prospects. Any player signed at 18 or younger becomes eligible after their fifth season and those signed at 19 or older become eligible after their fourth season. The appeal: It’s as close to a free player as you’re gonna get in Major League Baseball. It costs $100,000 to draft a player. That money goes to the player's former club. The issue: Rule 5 picks during the MLB phase have to remain on your active 26-man roster or else they’re returned to their original org. A draftee can be placed on the IL, but only if they are legitimately hurt. The last time the Twins made a pick: Tyler Kinley in 2017, who was eventually returned to the Marlins. The Twins not only added an intriguing arm, they also retained all of their in-house players who were eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. That group included Kala’i Rosario, Ricardo Olivar and Jovani Moran, among others. Whether they'll be able to get Castellano up to speed and ready for big-league pressure by the end of spring training is an open question, but he seems to have been one of the higher-upside selections available, and they're showing a renewed willingness at least to fish in those waters. Minor League Phase In the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft, the cost to acquire a player drops to $24,000 and there is no roster restriction requiring these players to be rostered at a certain level. Anyone not on a 40-man or Triple-A roster is eligible. The Twins selected four players in the minor league phase last year (Rafael Marcano, Rafael Escalante, Angel Del Rosario and Sheldon Reed). Here are the Twins selections in this phase: Round 1: Trent Baker, RHP, Cardinals Round 2: Miguel Briceno, OF, Brewers Round 3: Jefferson Valladares, C, Dodgers Drafted in the ninth round of the 2021 Draft, Baker pitched to a 4.89 ERA in 81 innings with the Cardinals’ Double-A team last season while averaging 9.0 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9. Baker logged seven more innings in the Arizona Fall League. He turns 26 later this month. Back in 2019, Baker pitched with the Mankato Moondogs of the Northwoods League, a college summer league based in the Midwest. Briceno is a 21-year-old utility man from Venezuela. He hit .277/.321/.365 (.685) in 94 games with the Brewers Low-A affiliate. In addition to appearing at six positions in the field, Briceno also pitched six times. Third base was his primary position. Reminds me of the “anything for the team” mentality of former Twin Eduardo Escobar. Valladares, 22, has been a productive hitter in the minors but lacks much of a track record. Over the past four seasons, he’s hit .303/.431/.453 (.866 OPS), but it’s come over just 406 combined plate appearances. The Venezuela product has seen most of his time in the field at first base, but does also have some catching experience. And here are the players the Twins lost in this phase: Taylor Floyd, RHP, taken in Round 2 by the Mariners Floyd, who recently turned 27, was acquired by the Twins as the player to be named later in a 2023 trade that sent Trevor Megill to Milwaukee. Floyd had a 4.04 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 in 64 2/3 innings for Wichita last season.- 40 comments
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Let's dive into a handful of topics regarding the Minnesota Twins. This episode touches on the projected bullpen, last year's issues pitching with runners on base, a fun Cole Sands stat, the length of Twins starts and looks back on a Jose Miranda hot streak.
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Video: Twins 5: Stats That Stick With Me
Tom Froemming posted a topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Let's dive into a handful of topics regarding the Minnesota Twins. This episode touches on the projected bullpen, last year's issues pitching with runners on base, a fun Cole Sands stat, the length of Twins starts and looks back on a Jose Miranda hot streak. View full video -
Thanks for reading, I appreciate it. It does seem like teams with good chemistry tend to pull through in a lot of high-pressure situations. But does the chemistry create a team that perseveres, or does a team that perseveres naturally build good chemistry? Either way, they do seem to go hand-in-hand. Last season, Twins hitters were 17th in clutch. A bit below average, but they'd been much worse in recent prior seasons. From 2021-24, Twins hitters rank dead last in clutch. As I suggested in the article, it's not a great way to look at run prevention as a whole, but I disagree that it's a ridiculously poor way to measure pitching, specifically. I think it does a good job in terms of zeroing in on the pitcher himself, but it's pretty blind to any additional context beyond that.
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Stats Show Twins' Pitching Was the Opposite of Clutch. Why?
Tom Froemming posted an article in Twins
While it can be painful to look back upon the disappointing 2024 Twins season, there’s no shortage of interesting trends and developments to reflect upon. Something that’s really sticking with me is how much the team underperformed compared to what things like WAR would have expected. The collective value of the players on this team did not reflect their overall record. There’s no doubt the team’s lack of consistency was a big factor in its struggles, but there are two stats I came across that stick with me. Part of why I can’t seem to shake them is because of how problematic they are. The part is I’m not sure how you’d attempt to go about addressing them. Clutch Situations There’s actually a metric for clutch that measures performance in high-leverage situations. Its calculation is based around Win Probability Added and the Leverage Index. Here’s a link to the FanGraphs Glossary entry on how clutch is measured if you’re interested in more info. Part of why the Twins win-loss record isn’t reflective of how the team fared in WAR is because they performed poorly in the clutch. This is a familiar story. The Twins have been among the worst clutch teams in baseball the past few years. Something important to keep in mind is the clutch metric is not predictive. It only contextualizes the past. Still, it’s worth noting that this has become a recurring issue for the Twins. Here is where the Twins ranked in clutch the past three seasons: Pitching Staff 2024: 24th 2023: 24th 2022: 24th 3-year period total: 27th Again, the stat is not predictive, so it would be foolish to do something like go out and target players who’ve excelled in this clutch metric. While this has certainly been a problem, going about fixing it isn't a straight-forward task. Pitching With Men On If you prefer looking at something more traditional and tangible, the Twins pitching stats with runners on base tell a similar story. This team crumbled under pressure. Since pitching with the bases empty is easier than pitching with men on, instead of simply comparing the two situations to each other, let’s look at how the Twins stacked up to the rest of the league. Here is the triple slash line opposing hitters posted in each situation and where the Twins ranked: Bases Empty .215 AVG (2nd) .278 OBP (2nd) .360 SLG (4th) Men On .281 AVG (29th) .338 OBP (24th) .457 SLG (28th) So the Twins were elite when the bases were clean and atrocious once any runners reached. Why? From a purely pitching perspective, it’s not like the Twins were horrible with runners on. They ranked fifth in K-BB%, eighth in xFIP and 15th in FIP. What killed the Twins is they gave up a .334 batting average on balls in play when there were runners aboard. That was the worst mark in all of baseball. With the bases empty, the Twins yielded a .265 BABIP, which was the second-lowest. In case you were wondering, league averages in those situations are a .297 BABIP with runners on (37 points lower than the Twins) and a .283 BABIP with the bases empty (18 points higher than the Twins). How is it even possible the Twins had such a dramatic split? If they were simply that bad at defense, you’d expect the BABIP with the bases empty would have also been poor. Was defensive positioning with men on base the culprit? Is pitch-calling strategy not complimenting those defensive alignments? Just plain bad luck? I don’t have the answers, so I’m curious what thoughts you may have. As you could probably guess, the Twins struggled to leave runners on base and had one of the worst strand rates in the league. Their 70.1 LOB% ranked 26th. The poster boy for the team’s struggles was Jhoan Duran. He posted a 61.5% LOB%, which was the ninth-worst mark among the 351 pitchers to log at least 50 innings last season. League average LOB% was 72.1. What about the lineup? Things were much more consistent there, as the Twins ranked 11th in OPS with the bases empty (.238/.305/.402, a .707 OPS) and 12th in OPS with men on base (.258/.328/.423, a .751 OPS). Circling back to WAR So how were the Twins a top-five pitching staff in fWAR? A key thing to remember is the FanGraphs version of WAR is based on FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. So fWAR is primarily about quantifying the specific value of pitching performance. You would think that would typically align with general run prevention, but the 2024 Twins are an excellent example of how that’s not always the case. It’s not just that the Twins struggled to convert balls in play into outs, it’s that their struggles to do so came at the most inopportune times. When it comes to diagnosing the Twins 2024 failures, nothing is going to overshadow the team’s September collapse, but struggles in clutch situations and failure to strand runners on base were major contributors to this team failing to reach its potential. -
The Twins pitching staff ranked fifth in FanGraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement last season. How is that possible when the team was 19th in runs allowed per game and 21st in ERA? Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images While it can be painful to look back upon the disappointing 2024 Twins season, there’s no shortage of interesting trends and developments to reflect upon. Something that’s really sticking with me is how much the team underperformed compared to what things like WAR would have expected. The collective value of the players on this team did not reflect their overall record. There’s no doubt the team’s lack of consistency was a big factor in its struggles, but there are two stats I came across that stick with me. Part of why I can’t seem to shake them is because of how problematic they are. The part is I’m not sure how you’d attempt to go about addressing them. Clutch Situations There’s actually a metric for clutch that measures performance in high-leverage situations. Its calculation is based around Win Probability Added and the Leverage Index. Here’s a link to the FanGraphs Glossary entry on how clutch is measured if you’re interested in more info. Part of why the Twins win-loss record isn’t reflective of how the team fared in WAR is because they performed poorly in the clutch. This is a familiar story. The Twins have been among the worst clutch teams in baseball the past few years. Something important to keep in mind is the clutch metric is not predictive. It only contextualizes the past. Still, it’s worth noting that this has become a recurring issue for the Twins. Here is where the Twins ranked in clutch the past three seasons: Pitching Staff 2024: 24th 2023: 24th 2022: 24th 3-year period total: 27th Again, the stat is not predictive, so it would be foolish to do something like go out and target players who’ve excelled in this clutch metric. While this has certainly been a problem, going about fixing it isn't a straight-forward task. Pitching With Men On If you prefer looking at something more traditional and tangible, the Twins pitching stats with runners on base tell a similar story. This team crumbled under pressure. Since pitching with the bases empty is easier than pitching with men on, instead of simply comparing the two situations to each other, let’s look at how the Twins stacked up to the rest of the league. Here is the triple slash line opposing hitters posted in each situation and where the Twins ranked: Bases Empty .215 AVG (2nd) .278 OBP (2nd) .360 SLG (4th) Men On .281 AVG (29th) .338 OBP (24th) .457 SLG (28th) So the Twins were elite when the bases were clean and atrocious once any runners reached. Why? From a purely pitching perspective, it’s not like the Twins were horrible with runners on. They ranked fifth in K-BB%, eighth in xFIP and 15th in FIP. What killed the Twins is they gave up a .334 batting average on balls in play when there were runners aboard. That was the worst mark in all of baseball. With the bases empty, the Twins yielded a .265 BABIP, which was the second-lowest. In case you were wondering, league averages in those situations are a .297 BABIP with runners on (37 points lower than the Twins) and a .283 BABIP with the bases empty (18 points higher than the Twins). How is it even possible the Twins had such a dramatic split? If they were simply that bad at defense, you’d expect the BABIP with the bases empty would have also been poor. Was defensive positioning with men on base the culprit? Is pitch-calling strategy not complimenting those defensive alignments? Just plain bad luck? I don’t have the answers, so I’m curious what thoughts you may have. As you could probably guess, the Twins struggled to leave runners on base and had one of the worst strand rates in the league. Their 70.1 LOB% ranked 26th. The poster boy for the team’s struggles was Jhoan Duran. He posted a 61.5% LOB%, which was the ninth-worst mark among the 351 pitchers to log at least 50 innings last season. League average LOB% was 72.1. What about the lineup? Things were much more consistent there, as the Twins ranked 11th in OPS with the bases empty (.238/.305/.402, a .707 OPS) and 12th in OPS with men on base (.258/.328/.423, a .751 OPS). Circling back to WAR So how were the Twins a top-five pitching staff in fWAR? A key thing to remember is the FanGraphs version of WAR is based on FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. So fWAR is primarily about quantifying the specific value of pitching performance. You would think that would typically align with general run prevention, but the 2024 Twins are an excellent example of how that’s not always the case. It’s not just that the Twins struggled to convert balls in play into outs, it’s that their struggles to do so came at the most inopportune times. When it comes to diagnosing the Twins 2024 failures, nothing is going to overshadow the team’s September collapse, but struggles in clutch situations and failure to strand runners on base were major contributors to this team failing to reach its potential. View full article
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Exactly your conclusion, it's about depth. You'd still rather have Ronny around than not, so why risk losing him for absolutely nothing? As one of the low guys in the pecking order, he'll be almost exclusively used in low-leverage outings anyway. If he starts slow and doesn't get his footing, certainly go ahead and make a change at that point. It'd be another shot, but with a relatively short leash. I'm not trying to say you have to like it, but this is Major League Baseball in 2024. It's not Rocco. The Twins had a slightly above average innings per start and pitches per start last season despite something like 50 starts coming from rookies. I'm not sure this "we" is necessarily directed at me, but I mentioned about 20 in-house relief options in the article.
- 36 replies
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- michael tonkin
- justin topa
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Twins Bullpen Depth Survives Non-Tender Deadline; Relief Questions Persist
Tom Froemming posted an article in Twins
Projected Opening Day Bullpen There are three pitchers currently in the big league bullpen picture who are out of options: Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin and Ronny Henriquez. Scott Blewett is also out of options, but since he’s not currently on the 40-man roster, we’ll consider him on the outside looking in. Taking options into account, here’s how I would currently project the Opening Day bullpen (listed in alphabetical order by handedness): RHP: Jorge Alcala, Jhoan Duran, Ronny Henriquez, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin LHP: Kody Funderburk Even though I would personally rank Justin Topa slightly above Tonkin and Henriquez, the fact that Topa still has options is working against him. I would prioritize keeping all three of them in the org over putting Topa in the active bullpen and risk losing either Tonkin or Henriquez. Feel free to share your thoughts on that, but keep in mind it’s likely this decision will be made in the trainer’s room. There’s not much of a chance this entire bullpen unit is all healthy at any given time, so this hypothetical battle for the final couple spots in the pen will likely work its way out naturally. Either way, this is a good situation to be in. There are more MLB arms in this org than there are spots in the big league bullpen. In addition to being the odd man out in my hypothetical pen, Topa is also the only other reliever currently on the 40-man roster. Still, there’s no shortage of other arms that could either provide length or even convert into a relief role. Matt Canterino, Louie Varland and Travis Adams fall into that category. With the left side of the pen looking like a soft spot, converting Brent Headrick to relief full time could also make some sense. The aforementioned Blewett and Daniel Duarte, who were both recently signed to minor league deals, are among the depth options not currently on the 40-man roster. Lefty Jovani Moran is also still in the org and could return to the big leagues once healthy. Even without making a single addition yet, this looks like a sturdy bullpen foundation. If things break right, this should be a very solid bullpen with a narrow path of being one of the best in baseball. Duran and Jax is an elite combo. There has been some chatter of Jax possibly converting back to a starter, but it’s been pretty weak language used around that speculation. I don’t think it’s worth overreacting to some people with the Twins saying they’d be open to that possibility. Duran hasn’t been as invincible since his remarkable 2022 rookie year, but Jax surging since then keeps this duo flexing. Beyond those two in the back end, there’s plenty to like about the supporting cast of Stewart, Sands and Alcala. There’s plenty to like about the right side of this bullpen. That box is checked. The left side is a big question mark at the moment. Bullpen Needs This appears to be the current left-handed pecking order: 1) Kody Funderburk, 2) Brent Headrick, 3) Jovani Moran. Those are the only three southpaws with MLB experience in the org, and each one of them feels like a better supporting southpaw than the go-to guy. Some of the left-handed options in the high minors include Jaylen Nowlin and Christian MacLeod, but they’re not on the 40-man roster and have little relief experience. Connor Prielipp is an exciting possibility, but that feels more like a pipe dream. The biggest need for this Twins bullpen is a reliable, proven left-handed reliever. In fact, that might be the biggest glaring need on the entire roster. Ideally, we would see Funderbruk start the year in St. Paul and an external addition taking his spot in the Opening Day bullpen. Beyond that, is there really anything else to add to the bullpen wishlist? You can never have too much pitching, but I like the look of the rest of both the big league bullpen and the depth options at the moment. This is a familiar-looking unit, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The Twins ranked fifth in reliever fWAR last year, though the ERA estimators viewed this unit in a much kinder light than its actual ERA. Despite ranking in the top seven in FIP, xFIP and SIERA, the Twins bullpen ranked 19th in ERA. Potential Targets Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of supply when it comes to established left-handed relief pitching. Earlier this offseason, Nick Nelson relayed seven free agent lefties that stood out as capable of filling a prominent role with the Twins. Another arm added to the mix this week is Colin Poche, who was non-tendered by the Rays. He’s pitched to a 3.27 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 174 games with Tampa Bay the past three seasons. Poche, 30, was projected for a $3.4 million salary through arbitration. The Twins front office could also turn to the trade market again to try to land a lefty. Either way, they need to nail this. If the guy they bring in performs similarly to how Steven Okert pitched this past season, dreams of this bullpen reaching its ceiling go up in smoke.- 36 comments
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- michael tonkin
- justin topa
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Despite some speculation that Michael Tonkin or Justin Topa might be non-tendered, the Minnesota Twins are set to retain all of their arbitration-eligible players. With that decision solidified, let’s take a look at the current state of the Twins bullpen. Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images Projected Opening Day Bullpen There are three pitchers currently in the big league bullpen picture who are out of options: Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin and Ronny Henriquez. Scott Blewett is also out of options, but since he’s not currently on the 40-man roster, we’ll consider him on the outside looking in. Taking options into account, here’s how I would currently project the Opening Day bullpen (listed in alphabetical order by handedness): RHP: Jorge Alcala, Jhoan Duran, Ronny Henriquez, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin LHP: Kody Funderburk Even though I would personally rank Justin Topa slightly above Tonkin and Henriquez, the fact that Topa still has options is working against him. I would prioritize keeping all three of them in the org over putting Topa in the active bullpen and risk losing either Tonkin or Henriquez. Feel free to share your thoughts on that, but keep in mind it’s likely this decision will be made in the trainer’s room. There’s not much of a chance this entire bullpen unit is all healthy at any given time, so this hypothetical battle for the final couple spots in the pen will likely work its way out naturally. Either way, this is a good situation to be in. There are more MLB arms in this org than there are spots in the big league bullpen. In addition to being the odd man out in my hypothetical pen, Topa is also the only other reliever currently on the 40-man roster. Still, there’s no shortage of other arms that could either provide length or even convert into a relief role. Matt Canterino, Louie Varland and Travis Adams fall into that category. With the left side of the pen looking like a soft spot, converting Brent Headrick to relief full time could also make some sense. The aforementioned Blewett and Daniel Duarte, who were both recently signed to minor league deals, are among the depth options not currently on the 40-man roster. Lefty Jovani Moran is also still in the org and could return to the big leagues once healthy. Even without making a single addition yet, this looks like a sturdy bullpen foundation. If things break right, this should be a very solid bullpen with a narrow path of being one of the best in baseball. Duran and Jax is an elite combo. There has been some chatter of Jax possibly converting back to a starter, but it’s been pretty weak language used around that speculation. I don’t think it’s worth overreacting to some people with the Twins saying they’d be open to that possibility. Duran hasn’t been as invincible since his remarkable 2022 rookie year, but Jax surging since then keeps this duo flexing. Beyond those two in the back end, there’s plenty to like about the supporting cast of Stewart, Sands and Alcala. There’s plenty to like about the right side of this bullpen. That box is checked. The left side is a big question mark at the moment. Bullpen Needs This appears to be the current left-handed pecking order: 1) Kody Funderburk, 2) Brent Headrick, 3) Jovani Moran. Those are the only three southpaws with MLB experience in the org, and each one of them feels like a better supporting southpaw than the go-to guy. Some of the left-handed options in the high minors include Jaylen Nowlin and Christian MacLeod, but they’re not on the 40-man roster and have little relief experience. Connor Prielipp is an exciting possibility, but that feels more like a pipe dream. The biggest need for this Twins bullpen is a reliable, proven left-handed reliever. In fact, that might be the biggest glaring need on the entire roster. Ideally, we would see Funderbruk start the year in St. Paul and an external addition taking his spot in the Opening Day bullpen. Beyond that, is there really anything else to add to the bullpen wishlist? You can never have too much pitching, but I like the look of the rest of both the big league bullpen and the depth options at the moment. This is a familiar-looking unit, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The Twins ranked fifth in reliever fWAR last year, though the ERA estimators viewed this unit in a much kinder light than its actual ERA. Despite ranking in the top seven in FIP, xFIP and SIERA, the Twins bullpen ranked 19th in ERA. Potential Targets Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of supply when it comes to established left-handed relief pitching. Earlier this offseason, Nick Nelson relayed seven free agent lefties that stood out as capable of filling a prominent role with the Twins. Another arm added to the mix this week is Colin Poche, who was non-tendered by the Rays. He’s pitched to a 3.27 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 174 games with Tampa Bay the past three seasons. Poche, 30, was projected for a $3.4 million salary through arbitration. The Twins front office could also turn to the trade market again to try to land a lefty. Either way, they need to nail this. If the guy they bring in performs similarly to how Steven Okert pitched this past season, dreams of this bullpen reaching its ceiling go up in smoke. View full article
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We have some Minnesota Twins news! Today was the deadline to protect players from the 2024 Rule 5 Draft. Marco Raya was added to the 40-man roster, as expected. Joining him was fellow right-handed starting pitcher Travis Adams, who was a bit of a surprise addition. The Twins elected to not add hitting prospects Ricardo Olivar or Kala'i Rosario. I shared my thoughts on that decision.
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We have some Minnesota Twins news! Today was the deadline to protect players from the 2024 Rule 5 Draft. Marco Raya was added to the 40-man roster, as expected. Joining him was fellow right-handed starting pitcher Travis Adams, who was a bit of a surprise addition. The Twins elected to not add hitting prospects Ricardo Olivar or Kala'i Rosario. I shared my thoughts on that decision. View full video
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With a limited spending budget, the Minnesota Twins are expected to be more active on the trade market this offseason. There's been plenty of talk about the possibility of trading away some of their current MLB talent, but what about minor leaguers? In this video, I call out five Twins prospects who I think would be very marketable in trade talks. These are talented guys I believe in, but they could potentially fetch some pretty impressive packages if the Twins were open to trading them.
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With a limited spending budget, the Minnesota Twins are expected to be more active on the trade market this offseason. There's been plenty of talk about the possibility of trading away some of their current MLB talent, but what about minor leaguers? In this video, I call out five Twins prospects who I think would be very marketable in trade talks. These are talented guys I believe in, but they could potentially fetch some pretty impressive packages if the Twins were open to trading them. View full video
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The Minnesota Twins are reportedly open to the possibility of moving stud reliever Griffin Jax to the rotation. There have been several success stories of arms converting from relievers to starters, could Jax be next? In this video, I discuss whether taking that risk really even seems necessary. View full video
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Adams is also two years older than Culpepper, about to turn 25. He was very good in Double-A last year, but if we zoom out to look at his overall body of work there, including 2023, it's not great. He definitely gets overlooked, and maybe he's flying too far under the radar, but I don't think you'll see anywhere have him flirting with the top-20 in the system, let alone the top-10.
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More whiffs, fewer walks, more grounders, ball stays in the yard, better stuff. Edit: And more hair.
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My personal rankings (which did factor into this list) agree with you wholeheartedly. I have Hill 11, Rosario 18, DeBarge 21. That being said, it does feel like this full staff list at the site balances floor vs. upside better than my own, to be honest. Sorta a best of both worlds situation.
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Our journey through the Minnesota Twins' top prospects continues with Nos. 11-15. This group features a pair of 2024 draftees, followed by a trio of prospects who’ve been holding steady in this range. Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Before we take a look at this block of prospects, make sure you check out the list of guys who just missed the top 20, as well as the Nos. 16-20 prospects. 15. Dasan Hill, LHP What’s the catch? That’s the question I kept asking myself when first getting acquainted with Hill. A 6-foot-5 lefty, Hill has a fastball that has consistently hit 97 mph; his slider is seen as an above-average offering that can be relied upon to get whiffs; and he has a quality curveball and feel for a changeup. This profile seems almost too good to be true for the part of the draft where the Twins got him. I don’t want to paint it as if he was someone they completely unearthed without having to make an investment (like a bunch of the other top arms in the system), but it seems like there’s excess upside. Hill was selected in the second round this year, No. 69 overall, and was paid a bonus that approached $2 million. So, what really is the catch? Well, Hill is still only 18 years old, and is listed at 165 pounds. He has a long way to go and a lot of gains to make. In terms of a physical comp, it’s easy to look toward current Twin David Festa, the "Slim Reaper". If Hill is this big and wiry at 18, might he be able to at least fill out to a similar frame as the 6-foot-6, 185-pound Festa? It’s far from a slam dunk, but with how difficult it can be to build a pitching staff, I love seeing the Twins prioritize a potentially high-reward arm over some of the safer investments that were available. Sometimes you have to take a chance. This is an exciting arm, added to a pitching pipeline that’s finally producing major-league talent. Hill pitched for Grapevine High School in Texas and was committed to Dallas Baptist prior to being drafted. He has yet to make his pro debut, but the sheer stuff and the physicality make full-season ball a plausible first assignment for him. 14. Kyle DeBarge, 2B/SS DeBarge had a massive power breakout prior to being drafted. If that’s real, this ranking is going to look low before long. If it’s a mirage, this ranking is going to look high before long. DeBarge hit 10 home runs over his first 510 plate appearances at Louisiana-Lafayette, but exploded for 21 homers in just 290 PAs there last season. His stature alone is also enough to call his power potential into question. He’s listed at 5-foot-9 and 175 pounds. Then there’s the discouraging early returns from his brief time in Fort Myers (only one home run in 115 PAs), but it was a small sample in a tough environment for power hitting. Taken in the first round (33rd overall) of this year’s draft, it’s not as if DeBarge’s value is completely tied to power. He brings plus contact skills, solid on-base ability, value added on the bases and reliable glovework that establishes his floor. He’s a ballplayer. The big question on defense, similar to most college shortstops, is where will DeBarge end up on the diamond? With Fort Myers, he logged more innings at second base than shortstop, but that was largely due to the org prioritizing getting first-round pick Kaelen Culpepper reps at the position. The Twins have had a lot of success with this type of profile. Think guys like Brian Dozier or Spencer Steer. Yes, I know Steer was traded, but they still get credit for drafting him and doing most of the development. Luke Keaschall is another one of these types, though he hasn’t fully climbed the ladder yet. Will the Twins strike gold again? We should have a much better idea a year from now. DeBarge hit .235/.322/.343 with a 24.3 K% and 10.4 BB% in 26 games for the Mighty Mussels, but that's only a problem if he stays at a similar level once he has his legs under him. 13. Kala’i Rosario, RF Rosario’s strengths are tantalizing, but the weaknesses are terrifying. This is a player with impressive offensive gifts that he continues to hone. There’s also a lot of swing-and-miss, though, and he’s one of the worst defensive outfielders I’ve seen come through the Twins system. After a 2023 season in which Rosario was named Midwest League MVP and won the Arizona Fall League home run derby, it might be easy to view 2024 as a step back. He missed a good chunk of time due to an elbow injury, which stings, but there were some positives from when he was on the field. While many of Rosario’s 2023 Midwest League champion teammates fell flat on their faces making the big leap up to Double-A, he held his own. This was Rosario’s age-21 season, and 93% of his plate appearances were against pitchers older (and you’d figure more developed) than him. Despite those challenges, he slugged comfortably above the average in the Texas League (Rosario had a .405 slugging percentage with Wichita; the league average was .374). With the jump to Double-A came a small increase in strikeouts (0.8% increase) and a more significant dip in walks (3.5% decrease). And while the power was solid, it’s not like Rosario’s overall line of .235/.321/.405 really jumps off the page. In the field, Rosario struggles to track balls and make adjustments. To be fair, it seems he did take steps forward in 2024, and the Twins managed to help Matt Wallner overcome similar issues along his journey to the majors. Rosario will likely never be a plus defender, but there’s hope some of these rough edges may be smoothed out. And there’s no questioning the arm. He has a cannon. Rosario comes in at No. 13 in our rankings after being placed in the No. 12 spot on last offseason’s list. That seems fitting, as there isn’t much that happened in 2024 to really change his prospect stock one way or the other. 12. Connor Prielipp, LHP If you had a crystal ball and could tell me that Prielipp will be healthy going forward, he’d be my No. 1 pitching prospect in the system. Seriously. As things stand, the injury risk is enough to sink his prospect status, at least this far. This is a special arm. It comes with a suspect elbow. Prielipp is clearly miles ahead of low-minors hitters. He has a mid-90s fastball, a slider that’s routinely over 3,000 RPMs of spin and a changeup that doesn’t seem like it’s trailing much behind those two excellent offerings. It’s a big-league arsenal. In addition to having Tommy John surgery back in 2021, Prielipp has had several other shutdown periods due to elbow soreness and had an internal brace surgery prior to the 2024 season. The possibility this elbow is a ticking time bomb is enough to cloud his future and deflate his prospect stock. One X-factor for Prielipp is he’s finally having a healthy offseason. Don’t expect that to mean he’ll be active to start the 2025 season. Coming off just 23 1/3 innings, they’ll look for ways to avoid a significant jump in workload, such as having him stay behind at the complex for a bit. Still, the hope would be that he'd head out to an affiliate fairly early. Prielipp pitched to a 3.86 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his brief stint last year, while only surrendering 14 hits, all but one of them singles. Opponents hit .173/.256/.185 against him. He also missed an abundance of bats, striking out 45% of the batters he faced, a rate of 15.8 K/9. On the downside, Prielipp only made nine starts, seven for Cedar Rapids. He threw 23 1/3 innings, with his longest start being just three frames. The most pitches he threw in any outing was 49. Prielipp climbs up a handful of spots from last offseason’s list, where he was No. 17. 11. C.J. Culpepper, RHP Culpepper had an up-and-down year, but his strong finish helps paint a positive outlook for 2025. After hitting a bit of a speed bump in High-A the prior year, Culpepper passed the test in 2024. A forearm strain halted his momentum in early June, but thankfully, that injury wasn’t a precursor to anything more serious. After two months of recovery, Culpepper was back with the Kernels. Three outings later, he was promoted up to Wichita to make his Double-A debut. The early returns weren’t great, but he was also still working on getting stretched back out. In September, Culpepper put an exclamation point at the end of his season. In 13 innings with the Wild Surge, he struck out 14 batters while issuing one walk. He gave up just a pair of runs on eight hits. He pounded the zone, throwing 69% of his pitches for strikes, and missed bats at a 15% swinging strike rate. What makes Culpepper special is his deep arsenal. I’ve lost count of how many pitches he throws. It’s at least six for sure, and maybe seven. He’s able to look like a completely different pitcher versus lefties than against righties, and can shapeshift as an outing progresses to flash different offerings he protected the first time through. It feels like Culpepper is still feeling out who he is and how best to deploy that deep arsenal. He only threw 58 1/3 innings this season, but the 3.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 he posted is plenty impressive enough to maintain belief. He has a chance to be a big-league starter despite being a former Day 3 pick in the draft. What Sean Johnson and his team have done late in drafts, particularly that 2022 class, is remarkable. Culpepper was the No. 13 prospect in our rankings from last offseason. Final thoughts: Culpepper being outside of our top 10 (along with Prilipp and Hill, for that matter) is a great show of how much pitching there is in the pipeline. Not long ago, we as Twins fans basically had one arm this exciting to pin our hopes on. Now, there are about a dozen of them. Will those hopes materialize? Tough to say, but I’m excited to find out. While the three arms in this grouping are easy to get excited about, the bats are both profiles the Twins have had success with. Maybe DeBarge and Rosario don’t have the upside of the trio of arms here, but are they more likely to realize their potential? It’s certainly possible. To have prospects this intriguing sitting outside of a top-10 list is a big flex for the system. This depth is part of why the Twins shot up minor league organizational talent rankings after the draft. View full article
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Twins Daily’s Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects: Nos. 15-11
Tom Froemming posted an article in Minor Leagues
Before we take a look at this block of prospects, make sure you check out the list of guys who just missed the top 20, as well as the Nos. 16-20 prospects. 15. Dasan Hill, LHP What’s the catch? That’s the question I kept asking myself when first getting acquainted with Hill. A 6-foot-5 lefty, Hill has a fastball that has consistently hit 97 mph; his slider is seen as an above-average offering that can be relied upon to get whiffs; and he has a quality curveball and feel for a changeup. This profile seems almost too good to be true for the part of the draft where the Twins got him. I don’t want to paint it as if he was someone they completely unearthed without having to make an investment (like a bunch of the other top arms in the system), but it seems like there’s excess upside. Hill was selected in the second round this year, No. 69 overall, and was paid a bonus that approached $2 million. So, what really is the catch? Well, Hill is still only 18 years old, and is listed at 165 pounds. He has a long way to go and a lot of gains to make. In terms of a physical comp, it’s easy to look toward current Twin David Festa, the "Slim Reaper". If Hill is this big and wiry at 18, might he be able to at least fill out to a similar frame as the 6-foot-6, 185-pound Festa? It’s far from a slam dunk, but with how difficult it can be to build a pitching staff, I love seeing the Twins prioritize a potentially high-reward arm over some of the safer investments that were available. Sometimes you have to take a chance. This is an exciting arm, added to a pitching pipeline that’s finally producing major-league talent. Hill pitched for Grapevine High School in Texas and was committed to Dallas Baptist prior to being drafted. He has yet to make his pro debut, but the sheer stuff and the physicality make full-season ball a plausible first assignment for him. 14. Kyle DeBarge, 2B/SS DeBarge had a massive power breakout prior to being drafted. If that’s real, this ranking is going to look low before long. If it’s a mirage, this ranking is going to look high before long. DeBarge hit 10 home runs over his first 510 plate appearances at Louisiana-Lafayette, but exploded for 21 homers in just 290 PAs there last season. His stature alone is also enough to call his power potential into question. He’s listed at 5-foot-9 and 175 pounds. Then there’s the discouraging early returns from his brief time in Fort Myers (only one home run in 115 PAs), but it was a small sample in a tough environment for power hitting. Taken in the first round (33rd overall) of this year’s draft, it’s not as if DeBarge’s value is completely tied to power. He brings plus contact skills, solid on-base ability, value added on the bases and reliable glovework that establishes his floor. He’s a ballplayer. The big question on defense, similar to most college shortstops, is where will DeBarge end up on the diamond? With Fort Myers, he logged more innings at second base than shortstop, but that was largely due to the org prioritizing getting first-round pick Kaelen Culpepper reps at the position. The Twins have had a lot of success with this type of profile. Think guys like Brian Dozier or Spencer Steer. Yes, I know Steer was traded, but they still get credit for drafting him and doing most of the development. Luke Keaschall is another one of these types, though he hasn’t fully climbed the ladder yet. Will the Twins strike gold again? We should have a much better idea a year from now. DeBarge hit .235/.322/.343 with a 24.3 K% and 10.4 BB% in 26 games for the Mighty Mussels, but that's only a problem if he stays at a similar level once he has his legs under him. 13. Kala’i Rosario, RF Rosario’s strengths are tantalizing, but the weaknesses are terrifying. This is a player with impressive offensive gifts that he continues to hone. There’s also a lot of swing-and-miss, though, and he’s one of the worst defensive outfielders I’ve seen come through the Twins system. After a 2023 season in which Rosario was named Midwest League MVP and won the Arizona Fall League home run derby, it might be easy to view 2024 as a step back. He missed a good chunk of time due to an elbow injury, which stings, but there were some positives from when he was on the field. While many of Rosario’s 2023 Midwest League champion teammates fell flat on their faces making the big leap up to Double-A, he held his own. This was Rosario’s age-21 season, and 93% of his plate appearances were against pitchers older (and you’d figure more developed) than him. Despite those challenges, he slugged comfortably above the average in the Texas League (Rosario had a .405 slugging percentage with Wichita; the league average was .374). With the jump to Double-A came a small increase in strikeouts (0.8% increase) and a more significant dip in walks (3.5% decrease). And while the power was solid, it’s not like Rosario’s overall line of .235/.321/.405 really jumps off the page. In the field, Rosario struggles to track balls and make adjustments. To be fair, it seems he did take steps forward in 2024, and the Twins managed to help Matt Wallner overcome similar issues along his journey to the majors. Rosario will likely never be a plus defender, but there’s hope some of these rough edges may be smoothed out. And there’s no questioning the arm. He has a cannon. Rosario comes in at No. 13 in our rankings after being placed in the No. 12 spot on last offseason’s list. That seems fitting, as there isn’t much that happened in 2024 to really change his prospect stock one way or the other. 12. Connor Prielipp, LHP If you had a crystal ball and could tell me that Prielipp will be healthy going forward, he’d be my No. 1 pitching prospect in the system. Seriously. As things stand, the injury risk is enough to sink his prospect status, at least this far. This is a special arm. It comes with a suspect elbow. Prielipp is clearly miles ahead of low-minors hitters. He has a mid-90s fastball, a slider that’s routinely over 3,000 RPMs of spin and a changeup that doesn’t seem like it’s trailing much behind those two excellent offerings. It’s a big-league arsenal. In addition to having Tommy John surgery back in 2021, Prielipp has had several other shutdown periods due to elbow soreness and had an internal brace surgery prior to the 2024 season. The possibility this elbow is a ticking time bomb is enough to cloud his future and deflate his prospect stock. One X-factor for Prielipp is he’s finally having a healthy offseason. Don’t expect that to mean he’ll be active to start the 2025 season. Coming off just 23 1/3 innings, they’ll look for ways to avoid a significant jump in workload, such as having him stay behind at the complex for a bit. Still, the hope would be that he'd head out to an affiliate fairly early. Prielipp pitched to a 3.86 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his brief stint last year, while only surrendering 14 hits, all but one of them singles. Opponents hit .173/.256/.185 against him. He also missed an abundance of bats, striking out 45% of the batters he faced, a rate of 15.8 K/9. On the downside, Prielipp only made nine starts, seven for Cedar Rapids. He threw 23 1/3 innings, with his longest start being just three frames. The most pitches he threw in any outing was 49. Prielipp climbs up a handful of spots from last offseason’s list, where he was No. 17. 11. C.J. Culpepper, RHP Culpepper had an up-and-down year, but his strong finish helps paint a positive outlook for 2025. After hitting a bit of a speed bump in High-A the prior year, Culpepper passed the test in 2024. A forearm strain halted his momentum in early June, but thankfully, that injury wasn’t a precursor to anything more serious. After two months of recovery, Culpepper was back with the Kernels. Three outings later, he was promoted up to Wichita to make his Double-A debut. The early returns weren’t great, but he was also still working on getting stretched back out. In September, Culpepper put an exclamation point at the end of his season. In 13 innings with the Wild Surge, he struck out 14 batters while issuing one walk. He gave up just a pair of runs on eight hits. He pounded the zone, throwing 69% of his pitches for strikes, and missed bats at a 15% swinging strike rate. What makes Culpepper special is his deep arsenal. I’ve lost count of how many pitches he throws. It’s at least six for sure, and maybe seven. He’s able to look like a completely different pitcher versus lefties than against righties, and can shapeshift as an outing progresses to flash different offerings he protected the first time through. It feels like Culpepper is still feeling out who he is and how best to deploy that deep arsenal. He only threw 58 1/3 innings this season, but the 3.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 he posted is plenty impressive enough to maintain belief. He has a chance to be a big-league starter despite being a former Day 3 pick in the draft. What Sean Johnson and his team have done late in drafts, particularly that 2022 class, is remarkable. Culpepper was the No. 13 prospect in our rankings from last offseason. Final thoughts: Culpepper being outside of our top 10 (along with Prilipp and Hill, for that matter) is a great show of how much pitching there is in the pipeline. Not long ago, we as Twins fans basically had one arm this exciting to pin our hopes on. Now, there are about a dozen of them. Will those hopes materialize? Tough to say, but I’m excited to find out. While the three arms in this grouping are easy to get excited about, the bats are both profiles the Twins have had success with. Maybe DeBarge and Rosario don’t have the upside of the trio of arms here, but are they more likely to realize their potential? It’s certainly possible. To have prospects this intriguing sitting outside of a top-10 list is a big flex for the system. This depth is part of why the Twins shot up minor league organizational talent rankings after the draft.- 25 comments
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Alex Kirilloff Retires | Minnesota Twins News
Tom Froemming posted a video in Minnesota Twins Videos
Minnesota Twins player Alex Kirilloff has announced he has decided to retire from baseball. The decision was influenced by the multiple injuries he's sustained during his career, the most recent being a back injury.

