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Outside of shortstop, there may not be another position player with lower offensive expectations than catcher. The physical toll of the position forces many elite offensive players into other roles – Bryce Harper, for instance, was moved from catcher to outfielder immediately after being drafted in an effort to extend his career. Others, such as Joe Mauer or (eventually) Buster Posey are moved later into their career when the beatings sustained as a catcher threatens to shorten their playing time or otherwise hamper their offensive value. Teams readily trade offense for defense when it comes starting backstops, making a true offensive catcher a rare luxury. That’s what makes Josmil Pinto so exciting. The Twins very well could have a truly impressive offensive asset at catcher, one year after moving one of the league’s best offensive catchers to another position. Forget rare, that kind of good fortune is unheard of. Pinto burst onto the scene as a September call up in 2013, finishing the month with 83 plate appearances and posting an impressive slash line of .342/.398/.566 while hitting 4 home runs and driving in 12 RBI. Pinto finished 2013 with the highest WRC+ among all catchers at 169, beating Joe Mauer’s impressive 144 WRC+. He also topped all catchers in BABIP, finishing with .440 – once again beating out Joe Mauer and his .383 BABIP for the top spot. Of course, Pinto posted these numbers in 1/5 of the plate appearances of Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina or Buster Posey - so they should be taken in the proper context and with a hearty grain of salt. I’m not here to tell you that Pinto is the next Molina or Mauer – his 2013 numbers were unsustainable even for the league’s best hitters and regression should be expected as Pinto piles up more plate appearances. However, his numbers from the past few seasons do point to some promising potential from the Twins future catcher. Pinto has been a member of the Twins organization since 2006 when he was signed as an amateur free agent. After five seasons of solid, albeit none too spectacular results, his bat came alive in 2012. Playing between A+ Fort Myers and AA New Britain, Pinto finished the season with a .295/.362/.482 line. Even more impressive was Pinto’s new found patience at the plate. In 2011, Pinto drew 14 walks in 73 games. In 2012, that number jumped to 43 walks over 105 games. His newfound offensive output followed him to 2013, where between AA New Britain and AAA Rochester he posted a .309/.400/.482 line over 126 games. His patience carried over as well, as he took 66 walks between the two levels. As we saw first hand, all of those numbers would pale in comparison to what he managed to do over the final month of the season at the big league level. At first glance, Pinto looks to have regressed in 2014; while he’s hit 5 early home runs (a mark that puts him second on the team, trailing only Brian Dozier’s 8) he’s only batting .228/.357/.424 while his strikeout rate sits at a higher than normal 22.3%. There’s reason to believe those numbers will improve, however, especially since Pinto’s minor league patience is beginning to show at the big league level. He currently leads all catchers in BB% (16.1%) and his .357 OBP is good enough for 8th overall among catchers. [TABLE] Season[TD=width: 7%]Team [/TD] [TD=width: 11%]O-Swing%[/TD] [TD=width: 11%]Z-Swing%[/TD] [TD=width: 9%]Swing%[/TD] [TD=width: 14%]O-Contact%[/TD] [TD=width: 14%]Z-Contact%[/TD] [TD=width: 11%]Contact%[/TD] [TD=width: 9%]Zone%[/TD] [TD=width: 6%]Pace[/TD] [TD=width: 9%]2013[/TD] [TD=width: 7%]Twins[/TD] [TD=width: 11%]30.7 %[/TD] [TD=width: 11%]52.9 %[/TD] [TD=width: 9%]42.1 %[/TD] [TD=width: 14%]58.0 %[/TD] [TD=width: 14%]84.6 %[/TD] [TD=width: 11%]75.2 %[/TD] [TD=width: 9%]51.3 %[/TD] [TD=width: 6%]22.6[/TD] [TD=width: 9%] [/TD] [TD=width: 7%] [/TD] [TD=width: 11%] [/TD] [TD=width: 11%] [/TD] [TD=width: 9%] [/TD] [TD=width: 14%] [/TD] [TD=width: 14%] [/TD] [TD=width: 11%] [/TD] [TD=width: 9%] [/TD] [TD=width: 6%] [/TD] [TD=width: 9%]2014[/TD] [TD=width: 7%]Twins[/TD] [TD=width: 11%]25.7 %[/TD] [TD=width: 11%]56.5 %[/TD] [TD=width: 9%]40.4 %[/TD] [TD=width: 14%]67.7 %[/TD] [TD=width: 14%]83.1 %[/TD] [TD=width: 11%]78.0 %[/TD] [TD=width: 9%]47.6 %[/TD] [TD=width: 6%]21.1[/TD] [/TABLE] Above: Pinto is chasing fewer pitches out of the zone (O%) while making better contact overall. Both numbers are good indicators for continued success. Even with his lower batting average, Pinto is currently 7th in WRC+ (122) among all catchers (minimum 90 PA). Outside of Buster Posey (148 WRC+) and Yadier Molina (126 WRC+) all of the other catchers ahead of him are posting career best BABIP and WRC+ totals, indicating they’re likely to regress as the season continues. (Kurt Suzuki, for instance, is currently tied with Pinto at 122 WRC+) Meanwhile, Pinto’s modest .245 BABIP is likely to improve as his batting average returns closer to his career norms. Pinto does have room to grow defensively as he’s still below average behind the plate. He posted a -3 DRS in 2013 and is currently at -1 DRS in 2014. He also has to work on keeping his hand back when receiving the ball – twice already this season Pinto has interfered with the batter at the plate (he got away with it against the Orioles, but was called for interference in the final game of the most recent Cleveland series). The Twins coaching staff has cited poor footwork when throwing out runners as an area of concern as well. There’s no reason to believe these areas won’t come around with experience, however. When Mauer's move to first base was announced in the offseason, it seemed unimaginable that the Twins would be able to find a smooth transition from one of the best offensive catchers in the game. Instead, the Twins have gotten an above average season from Kurt Suzuki. Meanwhile, Suzuki's replacement, Josmil Pinto is shaping up to be an offensive threat in his own right. When it comes of offensive output from the catcher position, the Twins appear to be one of the more fortunate teams in all of baseball.
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Per FanGraphs, Dozier had a defensive runs saved above average metric (DRS) of 9 for 2013 - on their scale that equates to a "great" (For what it's worth, "Gold glove caliber" players score close to 15). The data is too small for 2014 to generate an accurate number (he's currently at 0 - or average - DRS for 2014, but I'm sure that number will rise.) I hear lots of talk regarding moving Dozier back to short - but I'm of the opinion that when you have a Gold Glove caliber second baseman, you don't mess with it. I'd gladly take an elite defender at second base and look elsewhere for a solution at short, rather messing with both positions and hoping Dozier's improvements translate. A few days ago on the FSN telecast, Dick & Bert were discussing Dozier's improved defense and theorized that Dozier had excelled at 2nd because the position allowed him an extra second or two to adjust and field the ball. They felt that he could make more sliding and diving stops because of his proximity to 1st - something that playing SS would not allow him to do. Now, this was Dick & Bert "theorizing" so you can take that with a grain of salt if you'd like - but I thought it was an interesting point.
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Most baseball fans love a good story. We’re suckers for the guy rising from adversity to achieve his dreams of playing at a big league level. Look to the following around Chris Colabello’s rise this season or even Andrew Albers’ call up last year and it’s plain to see – we love the underdog. While Colabello’s story is certainly one of the greatest headlines of this season, I fear we as fans are overlooking another great redemption tale taking place right at second base. On August 14th 2012, the Twins optioned Brian Dozier, their struggling shortstop back to AAA Rochester. The move marked an unceremonious ending to Dozier’s rookie season in which he burst on to the scene as the "next big thing" before quickly falling into a rut plagued by poor hitting and a multitude of errors. Through 84 games, Dozier posted a meager stat line of .234/.271/.332 while holding an atrocious 58/16 strikeout to walk ratio. He also struggled in the field, committing 16 errors and posting a below average .964 fielding percentage. The common belief was Dozier would get a few weeks in Rochester to "fix" some issues before getting a call-up in September when the rosters expanded. Except the call never came. The Twins opted to leave Dozier in the minors for the rest of the season, a decision that spoke loudly towards the Twins attitude to the 25 years old shortstop. Dozier had been an unheralded prospect who put together one strong offensive season in 2011 – there was little basis to believe that he would ever develop into a regular player and his value as a utility player was reduced due to his poor fielding performance. For many prospects, a season like Dozier experienced in 2012 would likely mark the end of their big league aspirations. Instead, Dozier took a different approach and accepted the challenge from Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire to learn a new position. He spent the offseason in the Venezuelan winter leagues working at second base prior to games and came into the spring of 2013 ready to fill a new role with the club. He won the job out of spring training and shortly thereafter, a new Dozier emerged. Although he started 2013 a bit slow offensively, he was playing second base defense at an elite level right out of the gate. http://m.mlb.com/video/v27061353/?query=brian+dozier By the end of May, his bat had caught up to his glove and Dozier became an offensive weapon to match his newfound defensive prowess. Over the final 110 games of the 2013 season, Dozier batted .259/.335/.461 while hitting 17 home runs and stealing 9 bases. He also posted an improved strikeout to walk rate of 87/43. Dozier finished 2013 with a .244/.312/.414 slash line while posting a .992 fielding percentage and reducing his total errors for the year to 6. Even if 2013 was Dozier’s ceiling, it’s likely fans and the front office would both be pleased to have an above average defensive second baseman who carried a bit of offensive potential on the roster. The crazy part is – it looks like Dozier is still improving. Through 29 games this season, Dozier is batting .248/.373/.462 while hitting a team leading 8 home runs. He also leads Major League Baseball in runs scored (31) and leads the AL in stolen bases (11). A deeper look at the data shows Dozier’s offensive production coincided with a new patient approach at the plate. From 2012 to 2013, Dozier doubled his walk rate (4.7% in 2012 to 8.2% in 2013) while also boosting his OPS from .603 to .726. All he’s done in 2014 is double his walk rate AGAIN (16.2%) while increasing his OPS to .835. Even if his walk rate does regress slightly, it will likely come with a raise in batting average, meaning his OPS should stay relatively unchanged. Advanced data from Fangraphs further highlights the change: [TABLE] Season [TD=width: 9%]Team [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]O-Swing% [/TD] [TD=width: 13%]Z-Swing% [/TD] [TD=width: 11%]Swing% [/TD] [TD=width: 13%]O-Contact% [/TD] [TD=width: 16%]Z-Contact% [/TD] [TD=width: 16%]Contact% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]2012 [/TD] [TD=width: 9%]Twins [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]34.7 % [/TD] [TD=width: 13%]61.8 % [/TD] [TD=width: 11%]48.0 % [/TD] [TD=width: 13%]76.0 % [/TD] [TD=width: 16%]89.4 % [/TD] [TD=width: 16%]84.5 % [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 9%] [/TD] [TD=width: 12%] [/TD] [TD=width: 13%] [/TD] [TD=width: 11%] [/TD] [TD=width: 13%] [/TD] [TD=width: 16%] [/TD] [TD=width: 16%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]2013 [/TD] [TD=width: 9%]Twins [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]28.9 % [/TD] [TD=width: 13%]54.0 % [/TD] [TD=width: 11%]40.0 % [/TD] [TD=width: 13%]76.6 % [/TD] [TD=width: 16%]90.0 % [/TD] [TD=width: 16%]84.6 % [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 9%] [/TD] [TD=width: 12%] [/TD] [TD=width: 13%] [/TD] [TD=width: 11%] [/TD] [TD=width: 13%] [/TD] [TD=width: 16%] [/TD] [TD=width: 16%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 9%]Twins [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]25.7 % [/TD] [TD=width: 13%]48.6 % [/TD] [TD=width: 11%]36.5 % [/TD] [TD=width: 13%]70.7 % [/TD] [TD=width: 16%]89.9 % [/TD] [TD=width: 16%]82.8 % [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 9%] [/TD] [TD=width: 12%] [/TD] [TD=width: 13%] [/TD] [TD=width: 11%] [/TD] [TD=width: 13%] [/TD] [TD=width: 16%] [/TD] [TD=width: 16%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]Total [/TD] [TD=width: 9%]- - - [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]30.0 % [/TD] [TD=width: 13%]55.6 % [/TD] [TD=width: 11%]41.8 % [/TD] [TD=width: 13%]75.7 % [/TD] [TD=width: 16%]89.8 % [/TD] [TD=width: 16%]84.3 % [/TD] [/TABLE] Dozier has greatly reduced his swings outside the zone, while being more selective at pitches in the zone as well. In short, Dozier is swinging a more selective bat, and the results have certainly been noticeable. In fact, Dozier’s hot offensive start has caused some early season projections to take notice – requiring Fangraphs to tweak Dozier’s projected WAR for 2014, for example. (Hint: it’s doubled). All of this has happened while Dozier is making plays like this: http://m.mlb.com/video/v32497993/?query=brian+dozier It’s looking like the Twins have more than a serviceable second baseman that can be an occasional offensive threat. Instead, they may have one of the best defensive second baseman in baseball who could ALSO be one of the best offensive second baseman in baseball. It’s easy to overlook Dozier’s path from failure to potential Gold Glove winner or All Star Game representative since it happened right in front of our eyes. When you take a step back and look at how much Dozier has changed and developed over the past two seasons, its clear his story is one worth appreciating. The exciting part is, it appears to be far from over.
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The Twins raised some eyebrows during the offseason after they signed Mike Pelfrey to a two year, $11 million deal. While there was little doubt the Twins needed to address their rotation questions, there was doubt whether the answer to those questions was Mike Pelfrey - not to mention the need to commit to 2 years of Pelfrey in order to get a deal done. From an outside perspective, you can (sort of) see what the Twins were trying to do in signing Pelfrey back into the fold. After three seasons of rotating AAAA caliber starters and residing at or near the bottom of the AL in ERA, innings pitched and strikeouts, the Twins were looking for a veteran innings eater to provide a bit a stability. The consensus was, now a full year plus after Tommy John surgery, Mike Pelfrey would be primed to return to his career averages. From 2008 – 2011, Pelfrey had averaged just over 195 innings per season while posting an average ERA of 4.24. Pelfrey had shown flashes of a return to that consistency during the latter months of 2013. Pelfrey made 16 starts from May 31st through September 6th. During this time he posted a 7-9 record while totaling 93.1 innings (averaging nearly 6 innings per start) with an ERA of 4.05. Those numbers aren’t going to excite anyone, but as a 4th or 5th starter, they’d be perfectly serviceable. While Pelfrey did fade in his final three starts of 2013, the middle of the season seemed to mark a return to form for Pelfrey. Armed with this information and the assumption that another year of recovery from Tommy John surgery would allow for better control and velocity from Peflrey, the Twins re-upped the righty, hoping he and Kevin Correia could anchor the back of their newly improved rotation. That was the plan. Unfortunately, something has gone awry. Pelfrey has been underwhelming through his first 4 starts of 2014, posting an ERA of 7.32 over 19.1 innings of work. He’s frequently found himself with elevated pitch counts early in games and has yet to throw more than 5.1 innings in any start. That’s hardly the result the Twins were expecting from the big right hander when they signed him to a two year deal this offseason. So, the obvious question is, what happened? In short, Pelfrey’s control seems to be lacking in the early season. Through 4 starts, he is walking batters at a rate of 6.86 / 9 innings (15.3% BB) that’s more than double 2013’s walk rate of 3.12 / 9 innings (7.8% BB). In addition, Pelfrey is striking out batters at reduced pace from his career average of 5.09 K/9 – his rate of 3.66 K/9 is currently a career low. It’s logical to assume that a decrease in control could correlate with an increase in Pelfrey throwing more off speed or breaking pitches. Perhaps he’s working on his secondary pitches early in the season and just hasn’t quite ‘fine tuned’ the offerings? Unfortunately, the opposite seems to be true. Per FanGraphs, Pelfrey is throwing his fastball an astounding 81% of the time this season, up considerably from 72.6% in 2013 and 62.6% in 2012. Making matters worse, this season opponents are hitting .296 against the pitch Pelfrey is throwing 80% of the time. Interestingly, Pelfrey’s groundball to fly ball rate is a off quite a bit from his career average (he currently has a GB/FB rate of .93 while his career average is 1.49) while opponents are hitting flyballs 42.3%, up from his career average of 32%. Naturally, an increased fly ball rate has decreased his groundball percentage to 39.4%, down from a career average of 47.7%. When throwing a sinking fastball nearly 80% of the time, you simply should not have fly ball rates as high as Pelfrey does - this ties back into the earlier observation of Pelfrey’s control issues. He’s leaving his sinker up and over the plate, which is allowing opponents to put the ball in the air, rather than generating a groundout as planned. In fact, a quick look at Pelfrey’s pitch locations from last night’s start against the Rays illustrates this point quite nicely: The gray plots are Pelfrey’s sinker – that’s far too many sinkers up in the zone, especially for a pitcher who isn’t using many secondary pitches. As with all evaluations done this early in the season, small sample size could be clouding the bigger picture. Given Pelfrey’s reliance on his sinker, he should see his fly ball rates begin to normalize, which should help lower his numbers overall. I emphasize "should", as any improvement is dependent on Pelfrey returning to some form of consistent control. If he continues to struggle with walking batters and locating his sinker, Pelfrey’s current role with the Twins could be short-lived.
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The Minnesota Twins are currently 2nd in the AL in runs scored (86), 1st in OBP (.353) and 1st in walks (82). They also lead the AL in runs per game at 5.76. That’s not too bad for an offense that was routinely picked to finish towards the bottom of the league in nearly every category. Yes, it’s only April and the sample size is incredibly small – but it’s a good start. The offense has been bolstered by improved performances from multiple players including a breakout season from Chris Colabello and a surprising return to relevance from Jason Kubel. While Colabello is a great story and Kubel’s rebound is encouraging, the player that has been most impressive and, in my opinion, most improved, so far this season has been Trevor Plouffe. Through 67 plate appearances in 2014, Plouffe is hitting an impressive .308/.418/.436 with an OPS+ of 147. Plouffe has 4 doubles, 1 home run and has taken 10 walks to start the young season (he averaged just over 30 walks a season over the past 3 years). He’s more than doubled his walk rate from 2013 while cutting his strikeout rate by almost half. Of course, all early season statistics come with the caveat of small sample size and potential regression. A look at Plouffe’s advanced metrics; however, indicate Plouffe is taking a different approach at the plate this season. Perhaps Plouffe’s breakout campaign isn’t merely a run of good fortune, but the product of a new and improved player? Plouffe has been much more disciplined at the plate this season, as evidenced by his early season walk totals, but there’s more to this discipline than just taking more walks. Per PITCHf/x Plouffe’s O-swing% (the percentage of balls Plouffe swings at outside the strike zone) sits at 12.5%. He’s reduced that by over 50% from 2013’s O-swing% of 26.2%. In addition, Plouffe is simply swinging his bat less overall. His swing% sits at 35.2%, down from 43.1% in 2013. His Z-swing% (the percentage of balls Plouffe swings at in the strike zone) remains relatively unchanged from 2013 (58.6%) to 2014 (58.2%) while his overall contact % is nearly identical (81% in 2013, 79% in 2014). What does all of that mean? In short: Plouffe isn’t chasing bad pitches while he’s also being more selective in the strikes he does attack. This has resulted in an increased OBP and has helped Plouffe become a key piece in the offense’s early season success. It’s likely that pitchers will eventually catch on to Plouffe’s new approach and start throwing him more strikes and daring him to put the ball in play. For previous seasons’ Trevor Plouffe, this could have posed a problem as he was a notorious pull hitter. Teams could easily counter this by pitching him away, resulting in a weakly hit ground ball or shifting the defense to the left side, forcing Plouffe into easy outs. Luckily, Plouffe’s improvement has not solely come on taking more walks; he’s also driving the ball to all fields. Compare 2013’s spray chart: To 2014: Plouffe’s ability to use all fields is reinforced by his red hot BABIP of .364. While that number is sure to regress slightly as the season progresses other numbers indicate that the increased average isn’t a mirage. For example, Plouffe’s line drive rate has increased this season (29.5% up from 24.7%) as has his groundball rate (40.9% up from 38.6%) while his fly ball rate has decreased (29% down from 36.7%). Line drives and ground balls tend to lead to hits more than fly balls do, so an increase in those categories should show an increase in BABIP (and, in turn, batting average). We’ve seen Plouffe go on red hot streaks each of the past two seasons, so it’s easy (and understandable) to take a "wait and see" approach when it comes to the impressive early numbers he’s been putting up in 2014. I think what we’re seeing from Plouffe is more than just an early season hot streak. He looks to be a more disciplined and patient hitter this season. In addition, he’s making better contact and using all fields to put in the ball in play. I think this is the start of a new Trevor Plouffe – one that should be a building block for the Twins in the coming years.
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The Twins fell to the Blue Jays on Tuesday night due in large part to the wheels falling off the Phil Hughes strikeout express in the 6th inning. After cruising through five innings, limiting the Jays to four hits while striking out five batters, Hughes suddenly couldn’t retire a single batter and was forced from the game clinging to a 2-1 lead with two runners on and no outs. Those runners went on to score (plus one more for good measure), which left Hughes with a disappointing stat line of 5.0 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 5K and left his ERA at a far too high 7.20. I’m not here to talk about Phil Hughes, however. In my opinion, these "one bad inning" outings are just something Hughes needs to work through (or the team needs to be ready for). With as poor as the pitching has been over the past three seasons, we’ll take the bad with the good when it comes to Phil Hughes and hope he figures it out in the meantime. My bigger concern from last night’s game comes from the ninth inning when Jared Burton entered the game. Burton retired the first two Blue Jay batters relatively quickly before walking the next three batters in just as rapid fashion. Brett Lawrie stepped to the plate and well… I thought about linking the video, but I don't want to subject Twins fans to THAT again. Let's just say it was 9-2 in short order. Tuesday was Burton’s fourth appearance of the season and it continued a frightening trend for the righty set-up man, one that dates back to 2013. To put it simply – he’s been crushed. (All numbers that follow were obtained from Fangraphs on 4/16/14) Burton finished 2013 with 2-9 record with an ERA of 3.82. For comparisons sake, Burton finished 2012 with a record of 3-2 with an ERA of 2.18. That should raise a red flag immediately. While relievers are prone to up and down years, Burton’s 2013 was so much worse than 2012 that the Twins management and front office had to be concerned about the righty heading into 2014, even if they never publicly said anything. Delving a little deeper into the numbers doesn't make things look any better for Burton. He finished 2013 with a xFIP of 3.94, showing that his inflated ERA wasn’t the product of bad luck or a few bad outings – rather it was an accurate measurement of his performance. With an opponent batting average allowed of .240 (up from 2012’s .183) and a BABIP of .294, the writing was on the wall. Burton may just be out of gas. I think Twins management was influenced by Burton’s outstanding 2012 numbers and therefore were willing to take a chance that he could turn in numbers closer to his careerbest season – rather than 2013’s effort. Early season indicators seem to show that as a mistake. While the season is young and sample sizes are extremely small (especially for relievers) Burton has done little to show that 2012 Jared Burton will ever be coming back. He currently boasts an ERA of 14.40, with a xFIP of 6.94 (That’s depressing. It means Burton has been somewhat unlucky and that his ERA should ONLY be nearly 7…), opponents are hitting .300 off him and his BB/9 has risen, while his K/9 has been cut in half. In short, he’s walking more batters, striking out fewer batters and then letting everyone else hit .300 off of him. Ouch. With a plethora of young arms in AAA that look to be ready for the show, I hope the Twins don’t let Burton flap in the breeze much longer. Michael Tonkin or Casey Fien could easily take over Burton’s role as the 8th inning bridge to Perkins, and Deolis Guerra, Ryan Pressly and Logan Darnell are all just a phone call away. Things like this happen with relievers. Sometimes their stuff just stops working - for whatever reason. In reality, the Twins were lucky to get a career best season from a minor pickup in 2012. Whether Burton is hurt or simply out of gas, the choice remains the same. Something must be done with Burton and I believe the sooner the Twins make a move, the better off they'll be.
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The Twins fell to the Blue Jays on Tuesday night due in large part to the wheels falling off the Phil Hughes strikeout express in the 6th inning. After cruising through 5 innings, limiting the Jays to 4 hits while striking out 5 batters, Hughes suddenly couldn’t retire a single batter and was forced from the game clinging to a 2-1 lead with 2 runners on and no outs. Those runners would score (plus one more for good measure) which left Hughes with a disappointing stat line of 5.0 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 5K and left his ERA at a far too high 7.20. I’m not here to talk about Phil Hughes, however. In my opinion, these "one bad inning" outings are just something Hughes needs to work through (or the team needs to be ready for). With as poor as the pitching has been over the past 3 seasons, we’ll take the bad with the good when it comes to Phil Hughes and hope that he figures it out in the meantime. My bigger concern from last night’s game comes from the 9th inning when Jared Burton entered the game. Burton retired the first two Blue Jay batters relatively quickly before walking the next three batters in just as rapid fashion. Brett Lawrie stepped to the plate and well… I thought about linking the video, but I don't want to subject Twins fans to THAT again. Let's just say it was 9-2 in short order. Tuesday was Burton’s 4th appearance of the season and it continued a frightening trend for the righty set-up man, one that dates back to 2013. To put hit simply – he’s been crushed. (All numbers that follow were obtained from Fangraphs on 4/16/14) Burton finished 2013 with 2-9 record with an ERA of 3.82. For comparisons sake, Burton finished 2012 with a record of 3-2 with an ERA of 2.18. That should raise a red flag immediately. While relievers are prone to up and down years, Burton’s 2013 was so much worse than 2012 that the Twins management and front office had to be concerned about the righty heading into 2014, even if they never said anything outright. Delving a little deeper into the numbers doesn't make things look any better for Burton. He finished 2013 with a xFIP of 3.94, showing that his inflated ERA wasn’t the product of bad luck or a few bad outings – rather it was an accurate measurement of his performance. With an opponent batting average allowed of .240 (up from 2012’s .183) and a BABIP of .294, the writing was on the wall. Burton may just be out of gas. I think Twins management was influenced by Burton’s outstanding 2012 numbers and therefore were willing to take a chance that he could turn in numbers closer to his career best season – rather than 2013’s effort. Early season indicators seem to show that as a misstep. While the season is young and sample sizes are excruciatingly small (especially for relievers) Burton has done little to show that 2012 Jared Burton will ever be coming back. He currently boasts an ERA of 14.40, with a xFIP of 6.94 (That’s depressing. It means Burton has been somewhat unlucky and that his ERA should ONLY be nearly 7…) opponents are hitting .300 off of him and his BB/9 have risen, while his K/9 have been cut in half. In short, he’s walking more batters, striking out fewer batters and then letting everyone else hit .300 off of him. Ouch. With a plethora of young arms in AAA that look to be ready for the show, I hope the Twins don’t let Burton flap in the breeze much longer. Michael Tonkin or Casey Fien could easily take over Burton’s role as the 8th inning bridge to Burton and Deolis Guerra, Ryan Pressly and Logan Darnell are all just a phone call away. Things like this happen with relievers. Sometimes their stuff just stops working - for whatever reason. In reality, the Twins were lucky to get a career best season from a minor pickup in 2012. Whether Burton is hurt or simply out of gas, the choice remains the same. Something must be done with Burton and I believe the sooner the Twins make a move, the better off they'll be.
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Kyle Gibson was lights out last night as he held the Mariners scoreless over six innings of work. He scattered 7 hits, but only walked one batter while striking out three to turn in his 8th dominate performance on the year, improving his overall record to 8 wins, 7 losses. The problem is, there doesn’t seem to be any middle ground when it comes to Gibson’s starts. Either he’s lights out, like he was last night in Seattle (6.0IP, 7H, 0ER, 1BB, 3K) or he’s knocked out, like his outing against the Yankees on July 4th (2.0 IP, 6H, 5ER, 1BB, 0K). One or two starts with such a variance wouldn’t mean much. Starters have bad outings, even staff ace Phil Hughes has thrown a clunker or two this season. Gibson, however, isn’t just having "one or two" all or nothing starts. Seemingly every start is defined by the all or nothing principal. Take a look at the splits: [TABLE] Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ in Wins 8 216 198 5 41 5 [/TD] 1 1 17 28 1.65 .207 .270 .247 .517 49 8 1 3 .237 58 85 in Losses 7 136 124 40 47 11 2 5 1 9 12 1.33 .379 .419 .621 1.040 77 5 1 2 2 .385 213 125 in No Dec. 3 71 68 10 3 2 1 3 13 4.33 .147 .183 .191 .374 13 2 1 .182 14 9 [/TABLE] That’s a startling difference. He’s essentially allowing opposing batters to hit 170 points better in average in losses while seeing opponent’s OPS double (!) Obviously, in a loss, starters are going to post worse numbers than they do in wins, but they splits are not typically this wide or dramatic. Initially it looked like Gibson’s struggles were attributable to home / road splits. In his home starts since the beginning of the season, Gibson has had only two "clunkers" Home Starts: [TABLE] Date [TD=width: 31%]Innings [TD=width: 45%]Earned Runs [/TD] [TD=width: 23%]4/11 [/TD] [TD=width: 31%]6.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 45%]1 [/TD] [TD=width: 23%]4/17 [/TD] [TD=width: 31%]8.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 45%][/TD] [TD=width: 23%]4/30 [/TD] [TD=width: 31%]6.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 45%]5 [/TD] [TD=width: 23%]5/16 [/TD] [TD=width: 31%]7.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 45%]1 [/TD] [TD=width: 23%]5/28 [/TD] [TD=width: 31%]6.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 45%][/TD] [TD=width: 23%]6/7 [/TD] [TD=width: 31%]7.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 45%][/TD] [TD=width: 23%]7/4 [/TD] [TD=width: 31%]2.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 45%]5 [/TD] [/TABLE] While his road starts have been a bit rougher: Road Starts: [TABLE] Date [TD=width: 38%]Innings [/TD] [TD=width: 34%]Earned Runs [/TD] [TD=width: 29%]4/5 [/TD] [TD=width: 38%]5.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 34%]1 [/TD] [TD=width: 29%]4/22 [/TD] [TD=width: 38%]3.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 34%]7 [/TD] [TD=width: 29%]5/5 [/TD] [TD=width: 38%]7.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 34%][/TD] [TD=width: 29%]5/10 [/TD] [TD=width: 38%]2.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 34%]6 [/TD] [TD=width: 29%]5/23 [/TD] [TD=width: 38%]5.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 34%]5 [/TD] [TD=width: 29%]6/2 [/TD] [TD=width: 38%]6.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 34%]4 [/TD] [TD=width: 29%]6/13 [/TD] [TD=width: 38%]7.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 34%][/TD] [TD=width: 29%]6/18 [/TD] [TD=width: 38%]7.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 34%][/TD] [TD=width: 29%]6/24 [/TD] [TD=width: 38%]2.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 34%]7 [/TD] [TD=width: 29%]6/29 [/TD] [TD=width: 38%]8.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 34%]2 [/TD] [TD=width: 29%]7/9 [/TD] [TD=width: 38%]6.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 34%][/TD] [TD=width: 29%] [/TD] [TD=width: 38%] [/TD] [TD=width: 34%] [/TD] [/TABLE] Early in the season, the solution seemed simple. For whatever reason, Kyle Gibson struggled away from Target Field. However, Gibson’s last few starts have made that assessment a bit inaccurate. He’s turned in quality outings in Texas, Boston and Detroit while his last "dud" start came at home. It’s clearly not as simple as home / road struggles. So, let’s dig a bit deeper. Maybe this is all just a matter of pitch selection? [TABLE] Date [TD=width: 10%]Opp [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]FB% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]FBv [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]SL% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]SLv [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]CB% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]CBv [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]CH% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]CHv [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]7/9/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]@SEA [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]7/4/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]NYY [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]57.70% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]90.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]23.10% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]83.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]3.90% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]79 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]15.40% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]83.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]6/29/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]@TEX [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]67.40% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]92.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]24.20% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]85.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]2.10% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]80.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]6.30% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]84.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]6/24/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]@LAA [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]62.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]92.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]20.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]85 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]2.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]82 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]16.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]84.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]6/18/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]@BOS [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]56.90% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]92.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]20.60% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]84.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]3.90% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]81 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]18.60% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]84.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]6/13/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]@DET [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]60.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]91.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]24.60% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]83.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]2.70% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]78.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]12.70% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]82.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]6/7/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]HOU [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]65.10% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]89.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]18.90% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]83.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]2.80% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]77.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]13.20% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]82.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]6/2/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]@MIL [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]62.30% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]92.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]31.20% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]84.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]2.60% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]79 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]3.90% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]83.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]5/28/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]TEX [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]67.30% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]91.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]20.60% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]84.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]5.60% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]79.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]6.50% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]82.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]5/23/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]@SFG [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]51.40% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]92 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]26.40% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]85.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]9.70% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]81 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]12.50% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]83.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]5/16/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]SEA [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]68.80% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]90.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]12.50% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]84.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]1.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]78 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]17.70% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]83.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]5/10/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]@DET [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]56.30% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]91.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]33.30% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]84.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]10.40% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]83.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]5/5/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]@CLE [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]69.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]90.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]7.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]85.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]7.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]79.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]17.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]82.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]4/30/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]LAD [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]64.40% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]91 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]19.80% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]82.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]3.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]79 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]12.90% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]83.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]4/22/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]@TBR [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]68.60% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]90.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]24.40% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]82.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]7.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]82.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]4/17/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]TOR [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]80.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]90.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]11.40% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]83.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]8.60% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]82.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]4/11/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]KCR [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]67.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]91.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]19.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]83.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]3.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]78.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]11.00% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]83 [/TD] [TD=width: 12%]4/5/2014 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]@CLE [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]69.10% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]90.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]13.40% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]82 [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%] [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]17.50% [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]81.8 [/TD] [/TABLE] That big block of data does have some interesting points. Mainly, in wins, Gibson is using his fastball between 60%-70% while in losses the fastball usage resides closer to 51%-57% of the time. Why is Gibson shying away from his fastball in losses? It looks like he’s struggling to locate the pitch. Here’s Gibson’s Pitch F/X data from his 7/4 start against the Yankees: Look at the gray squares, which indicate Gibson’s sinker. As you can see, Gibson struggled to locate his sinker leaving many balls out of the zone. That caused him to fall behind to batters and then come into the zone with a different pitch (since his sinker control was off) – thus resulting in a fireworks performance courtesy of the Yankee bats. The trend repeats in his 6/24 start against the Angels. Again, there’s little consistency in the location of his sinker and not surprisingly, the results are very similar to the start against the Yankees. Finally, look at the Pitch F/X data from his 6/29 start against Texas and the start yesterday against Seattle. A majority of his sinkers are low in the zone and are grouped nicely. Greater control yielded a better result. Admittedly, that’s a lot of data to comb over to simply reach the conclusion that Gibson is better when he can control his pitches. That policy applies to every starter in the league (outside of maybe Sam Deduno who in fact may be better when he has no idea where the ball is going). What’s startling is just how dramatic the results are when Gibson is struggling with control and when he’s on. Every starter will battle control issues from time to time and even the best starters get knocked around a bit, but I don’t know that I’ve ever scene a player as all or nothing as Kyle Gibson. Hopefully, Gibson can improve on these results as he continues to learn and grow. He’ll need to learn how to pitch when his best stuff just isn’t with him – even Kevin Correia and Ricky Nolasco can turn in quality outings when their command is evading them. It seems like Gibson’s struggles may simple be because he hasn’t figured out how to work with what he has on any given night. Hopefully as he pitches further into the season, he’ll figure things out and we’ll stop seeing so many "boom or busts" starts from the Twins’ righty.
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[FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] Kyle Gibson was lights out last night as he held the Mariners scoreless over six innings of work. He scattered 7 hits, but only walked one batter while striking out three to turn in his 8[SUP]th[/SUP] dominate performance on the year, improving his overall record to 8 wins, 7 losses. The problem is, there doesn’t seem to be any middle ground when it comes to Gibson’s starts. Either he’s lights out, like he was last night in Seattle (6.0IP, 7H, 0ER, 1BB, 3K) or he’s knocked out, like his outing against the Yankees on July 4[SUP]th[/SUP] (2.0 IP, 6H, 5ER, 1BB, 0K). One or two starts with such a variance wouldn’t mean much. Starters have bad outings, even staff ace Phil Hughes has thrown a clunker or two this season. Gibson, however, isn’t just having "one or two" all or nothing starts. Seemingly every start is defined by the all or nothing principal. Take a look at the splits: [TABLE] [TR] [TH]Split [/TH] [TH]G [/TH] [TH]PA [/TH] [TH]AB [/TH] [TH]R [/TH] [TH]H [/TH] [TH]2B [/TH] [TH]3B [/TH] [TH]HR [/TH] [TH]SB [/TH] [TH]CS [/TH] [TH]BB [/TH] [TH]SO [/TH] [TH]SO/W [/TH] [TH]BA [/TH] [TH]OBP [/TH] [TH]SLG [/TH] [TH]OPS [/TH] [TH]TB [/TH] [TH]GDP [/TH] [TH]HBP [/TH] [TH]SH [/TH] [TH]SF [/TH] [TH]IBB [/TH] [TH]ROE [/TH] [TH]BAbip [/TH] [TH]tOPS+ [/TH] [TH]sOPS+ [/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]in Wins [/TD] [TD]8 [/TD] [TD]216 [/TD] [TD]198 [/TD] [TD]5 [/TD] [TD]41 [/TD] [TD]5 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]1 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]1 [/TD] [TD]17 [/TD] [TD]28 [/TD] [TD]1.65 [/TD] [TD].207 [/TD] [TD].270 [/TD] [TD].247 [/TD] [TD].517 [/TD] [TD]49 [/TD] [TD]8 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]1 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]3 [/TD] [TD].237 [/TD] [TD]58 [/TD] [TD]85 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]in Losses [/TD] [TD]7 [/TD] [TD]136 [/TD] [TD]124 [/TD] [TD]40 [/TD] [TD]47 [/TD] [TD]11 [/TD] [TD]2 [/TD] [TD]5 [/TD] [TD]1 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]9 [/TD] [TD]12 [/TD] [TD]1.33 [/TD] [TD].379 [/TD] [TD].419 [/TD] [TD].621 [/TD] [TD]1.040 [/TD] [TD]77 [/TD] [TD]5 [/TD] [TD]1 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]2 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]2 [/TD] [TD].385 [/TD] [TD]213 [/TD] [TD]125 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]in No Dec. [/TD] [TD]3 [/TD] [TD]71 [/TD] [TD]68 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]10 [/TD] [TD]3 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]2 [/TD] [TD]1 [/TD] [TD]3 [/TD] [TD]13 [/TD] [TD]4.33 [/TD] [TD].147 [/TD] [TD].183 [/TD] [TD].191 [/TD] [TD].374 [/TD] [TD]13 [/TD] [TD]2 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]1 [/TD] [TD].182 [/TD] [TD]14 [/TD] [TD]9 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] That’s a startling difference. He’s essentially allowing opposing batters to hit 170 points better in average in losses while seeing opponent’s OPS double (!) Obviously, in a loss, starters are going to post worse numbers than they do in wins, but they splits are not typically this wide or dramatic. Initially it looked like Gibson’s struggles were attributable to home / road splits. In his home starts since the beginning of the season, Gibson has had only two "clunkers" [B]Home Starts: [/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Date [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 31%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Innings [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 45%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Earned Runs [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 23%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]4/11 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 31%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6.1 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 45%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]1 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 23%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]4/17 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 31%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]8.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 45%"][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 23%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]4/30 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 31%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6.2 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 45%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 23%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5/16 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 31%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]7.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 45%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]1 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 23%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5/28 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 31%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 45%"][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 23%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6/7 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 31%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]7.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 45%"][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 23%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]7/4 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 31%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]2.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 45%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] While his road starts have been a bit rougher: [B] Road Starts: [/B][/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Date [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 38%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Innings [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 34%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Earned Runs [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 29%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]4/5 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 38%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 34%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]1 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 29%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]4/22 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 38%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]3.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 34%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]7 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 29%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5/5 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 38%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]7.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 34%"][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 29%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5/10 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 38%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]2.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 34%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 29%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5/23 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 38%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 34%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 29%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6/2 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 38%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 34%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]4 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 29%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6/13 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 38%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]7.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 34%"][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 29%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6/18 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 38%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]7.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 34%"][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 29%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6/24 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 38%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]2.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 34%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]7 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 29%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6/29 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 38%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]8.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 34%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]2 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 29%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]7/9 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 38%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6.0 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 34%"][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 29%"] [/TD] [TD="width: 38%"] [/TD] [TD="width: 34%"] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] Early in the season, the solution seemed simple. For whatever reason, Kyle Gibson struggled away from Target Field. However, Gibson’s last few starts have made that assessment a bit inaccurate. He’s turned in quality outings in Texas, Boston and Detroit while his last "dud" start came at home. It’s clearly not as simple as home / road struggles. So, let’s dig a bit deeper. Maybe this is all just a matter of pitch selection? [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Date [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]Opp [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]FB% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]FBv [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]SL% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]SLv [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]CB% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]CBv [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]CH% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]CHv [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]7/9/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]@SEA [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]7/4/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]NYY [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]57.70% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]90.9 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]23.10% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]83.7 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]3.90% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]79 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]15.40% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]83.3 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6/29/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]@TEX [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]67.40% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]92.2 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]24.20% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]85.5 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]2.10% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]80.5 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6.30% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]84.5 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6/24/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]@LAA [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]62.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]92.6 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]20.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]85 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]2.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]82 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]16.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]84.1 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6/18/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]@BOS [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]56.90% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]92.1 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]20.60% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]84.9 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]3.90% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]81 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]18.60% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]84.1 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6/13/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]@DET [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]60.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]91.5 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]24.60% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]83.9 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]2.70% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]78.3 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]12.70% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]82.5 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6/7/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]HOU [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]65.10% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]89.9 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]18.90% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]83.8 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]2.80% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]77.3 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]13.20% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]82.1 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6/2/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]@MIL [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]62.30% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]92.1 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]31.20% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]84.3 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]2.60% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]79 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]3.90% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]83.3 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5/28/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]TEX [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]67.30% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]91.5 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]20.60% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]84.7 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5.60% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]79.7 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]6.50% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]82.7 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5/23/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]@SFG [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]51.40% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]92 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]26.40% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]85.5 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]9.70% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]81 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]12.50% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]83.8 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5/16/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]SEA [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]68.80% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]90.9 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]12.50% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]84.1 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]1.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]78 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]17.70% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]83.2 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5/10/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]@DET [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]56.30% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]91.7 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]33.30% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]84.6 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]10.40% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]83.2 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]5/5/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]@CLE [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]69.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]90.5 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]7.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]85.6 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]7.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]79.4 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]17.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]82.7 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]4/30/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]LAD [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]64.40% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]91 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]19.80% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]82.4 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]3.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]79 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]12.90% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]83.2 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]4/22/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]@TBR [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]68.60% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]90.8 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]24.40% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]82.9 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]7.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]82.7 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]4/17/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]TOR [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]80.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]90.9 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]11.40% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]83.7 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]8.60% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]82.9 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]4/11/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]KCR [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]67.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]91.3 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]19.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]83.2 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]3.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]78.7 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]11.00% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]83 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="width: 12%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]4/5/2014 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]@CLE [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]69.10% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]90.4 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]13.40% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]82 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]17.50% [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [TD="width: 10%"][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]81.8 [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3] That big block of data does have some interesting points. Mainly, in wins, Gibson is using his fastball between 60%-70% while in losses the fastball usage resides closer to 51%-57% of the time. Why is Gibson shying away from his fastball in losses? It looks like he’s struggling to locate the pitch. Here’s Gibson’s Pitch F/X data from his 7/4 start against the Yankees: [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][CENTER][attachment=7461:5183.attach] [/CENTER] Look at the gray squares, which indicate Gibson’s sinker. As you can see, Gibson struggled to locate his sinker leaving many balls out of the zone. That caused him to fall behind to batters and then come into the zone with a different pitch (since his sinker control was off) – thus resulting in a fireworks performance courtesy of the Yankee bats. The trend repeats in his 6/24 start against the Angels. [CENTER][attachment=7462:5184.attach] [/CENTER] Again, there’s little consistency in the location of his sinker and not surprisingly, the results are very similar to the start against the Yankees. Finally, look at the Pitch F/X data from his 6/29 start against Texas and the start yesterday against Seattle. [CENTER][attachment=7463:5185.attach] [attachment=7464:5186.attach] [/CENTER] [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3][FONT=Calibri][SIZE=3]A majority of his sinkers are low in the zone and are grouped nicely. Greater control yielded a better result. Admittedly, that’s a lot of data to comb over to simply reach the conclusion that Gibson is better when he can control his pitches. That policy applies to every starter in the league (outside of maybe Sam Deduno who in fact may be better when he has no idea where the ball is going). What’s startling is just how dramatic the results are when Gibson is struggling with control and when he’s on. Every starter will battle control issues from time to time and even the best starters get knocked around a bit, but I don’t know that I’ve ever scene a player as all or nothing as Kyle Gibson. Hopefully, Gibson can improve on these results as he continues to learn and grow. He’ll need to learn how to pitch when his best stuff just isn’t with him – even Kevin Correia and Ricky Nolasco can turn in quality outings when their command is evading them. It seems like Gibson’s struggles may simple be because he hasn’t figured out how to work with what he has on any given night. Hopefully as he pitches further into the season, he’ll figure things out and we’ll stop seeing so many "boom or busts" starts from the Twins’ righty. [/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT] View full article
