James Richter

If I’d told you before the season started that, 20 games in, Denard Span would have a .386 OBP, Joe Mauer would be hitting .329 and Justin Morneau would have an IsoP of .236, plus newcomer Josh Willingham would have a 1.114 OPS, what would you have expected the Twins’ record to be? Better than 5-15, I hope. There are a lot of reasons why it is that poor, and some of them are not easily solved, but I don’t believe the offense is one of them. Ultimately, it’s about scoring runs, and the numbers there are not good. The Twins have crossed the plate just 77 times in their first 20 games, putting them on pace to score 624 runs. Unless they pick it up, we’ll be facing 100 losses again at the end of September. Fortunately, they have picked it up. Since forgetting to bring their bats to the opening series in Baltimore, the Twins have hit .279/.343/.419 with 11/14 SB. If you plug their offensive numbers from the past 17 games into a simple formulation of Runs Created, you get just over 5 runs/game, on pace for about 820 runs on the year. That’s a lineup that can contend in a weak AL Central. Sadly, the formula hasn’t been reflective of their real-world performance. They’ve actually averaged 4.2 runs/game over their last 17, a pace for 686 runs on the season. With this pitching staff, that will probably leave them at least 10 games under .500. There are two major reasons for this discrepancy between the formula and what’s really happened over the last 3 weeks. Happily, neither is likely to be a problem over the long haul. First, though they’ve hit well overall, they’ve had a lot of trouble cashing in on their scoring opportunities. Since Baltimore, they’re hitting .241 with RISP. In 2011, they hit .249 overall and .248 with RISP, and the AL as a whole hit .257 overall and .258 with RISP. With a large enough sample size, the numbers will even out. Unless you believe there’s something inherently un-clutch about the Twins’ hitters. I don’t. Second, there are the double plays. The Twins have already hit into 22 DPs, a rate of 1 for every 11.5 baserunners. The other 13 teams in the AL have combined to hit into 200, about 15 apiece, a rate of 1 for every 16.3 baserunners. Just in case you think there’s something about the Twins’ hitting style that makes them more likely to hit into DPs, last year’s horrific offense did so at a rate of... 1 for every 16.5 baserunners. Given enough time, the frequency of Twin-killings should normalize. Not only are they hitting into more than their share of DPs, they’re doing it disproportionately in games where it hurts the most. The Twins had 8 of them turned against them in 4 games they lost by a single run. Had they been able to redistribute one rally-killing DP away from each of those games (such as Sean Burroughs’ on Wednesday or the dicey call on Doumit’s sinking liner on Friday), it’s not hard to imagine them having 3-4 more wins than they do right now. And, given the strength of their early-season opponents and their disastrous starting pitching, 8-9 wins at this stage would be a decent accomplishment. I would expect their BABIP to come down somewhat over the course of the season. Even so, this lineup appears to be capable of producing at least 750 runs over 162 games. That’s a strength - the average AL team scored 723 runs in 2011. The Twins’ typical starting 9 earns about $54M combined. Doumit is the only guy in that group who isn’t under contract or team control for 2013. The other 8 could all be back for a combined salary of... about $54M. This team’s troubles sit squarely on the pitching side. They may not be solvable this year, but there will be an opportunity to mostly wipe the slate clean next offseason. The quality and stability of the offense gives them the opportunity to devote just about all of their resources to upgrading the pitching. They’ve got big problems this year, but I wouldn’t dismantle the offense and write off 2013 yet.

On April 16th, 2000, I went to the Dome to see the Twins take on the Orioles. Joe Mays vs. Sidney Ponson - what an auspicious pitching matchup that was! Mays took the mound and proceeded to lose the game with dizzying speed. Homer, single, double, 2-run single, groundout, 2-run homer. 6 batters and 20 pitches into the game, he’d allowed 5 ER on 5 H. Undoubtedly, someone was up in the bullpen. Perhaps there were some derisive cheers when TK walked out to the mound. After all, this was even worse than Mays’ previous start, when he gave up 7 ER on 4 H and 4 BB in 1.1 IP. To that point in the young season he had allowed 17 ER on 17 H (3 HR) and 4 BB, an 18.37 ERA. We were all justified in thinking that Mays sucked. He would have been justified in feeling that way about himself. But after a short conversation, TK walked back to the dugout without taking the ball. I don’t know what was said, but the message I got in the bleachers was something like, “Joe, I’m not going to let you abuse this bullpen any more. You’re going to stay out here for 100 pitches. You can keep letting them smack you around the field, or you can make an adjustment and compete. You’re a big league pitcher, and we expect you to get outs. Now go do your job.” To my amazement, Mays went on to complete the next 7.2 IP in just 86 pitches, scattering 3 H and 0 BB while striking out 7. While he continued to take his lumps throughout his 2nd MLB season - 6 of his subsequent 25 GS were clunkers - for me this game came to symbolize a turning point for Mays. Injuries would soon erode his mediocre stuff to the point that he was hopeless. But from the moment of that mound visit to the end of the 2002 regular season, he averaged about 6.1 IP/GS with a 4.14 ERA. (If you give him a mulligan on April 2002, when he was clearly trying to pitch through injury, things look even better.) That’s pretty similar value to what Carl Pavano has given the Twins. Mays’ upside was back-of-the-rotation innings-eater, but he needed a kick in the pants to reach his potential. Which brings us to Francisco Liriano. His first three starts have been every bit as horrid as Mays’ in 2000. Unlike Mays, he has the stuff to be elite. He had a brilliant spring, and looked awesome mowing down the side in order in his first inning in Baltimore. Then a good hitter hit a good pitch out of the park, and the wheels came off. It’s a shame that Liriano’s self-confidence is so brittle that it could be shattered with one swing. But it’s inexcusable that the Twins should have enabled his downward spiral by taking him out so early that day. The WHIP looked terrible, but several of the hits were balls the IF got leather on. The last hit he allowed was a little jam-shot blooper. They weren’t exactly knocking him around the field. But he was out after 4 IP and just 74 pitches. If Valencia hadn’t clanged that 2-out “double” (which another scorer might have ruled an error), Liriano would have allowed just 3 ER in those 4 IP with only 65 pitches. Either way, would they have pulled Pavano from that game? Or Blackburn? I doubt it. And I bet we’ll find over the next couple of months that they won’t pull Marquis from that game, either. How about the second start against the Angels? Liriano had one bad inning, then got on a roll over which he retired 10 of 11 batters. He walked the guy who had taken him into the 2nd deck, then gave up a one-armed double just fair down the line on a pretty decent 1-2 changeup. At 91 pitches, with the 8-9-1 hitters due up in the next inning, he was pulled. Would any of the other starters have been pulled under those circumstances? By yanking Liriano so early in these games, Gardy has sent the message that he doesn’t believe Frankie can get anybody else out. Liriano seems to have gotten the message. He has pitched progressively worse over his 3 GS - he was legitimately putrid against the Yankees, like he was scared to throw the ball over the plate. His manager’s blatant lack of confidence in him can’t be helping. That has to change. Liriano needs to make friends with the fear. His next bullpen session should go something like . Do what TK did, Gardy. Take away the net. On Sunday morning in Tampa, tell Liriano that he’s going to throw 7 innings. He can do it in 90 pitches or 150, but he’s not coming out of there until he gets at least 21 outs. Maybe that will get him attacking hitters again. It worked for Mays. Tough love - . See what happens. Maybe it will make Liriano better. I don't see how it could make him any worse.

On April 16th, 2000, I went to the Dome to see the Twins take on the Orioles. Joe Mays vs. Sidney Ponson - what an auspicious pitching matchup that was! Mays took the mound and proceeded to lose the game with dizzying speed. Homer, single, double, 2-run single, groundout, 2-run homer. 6 batters and 20 pitches into the game, he’d allowed 5 ER on 5 H. Undoubtedly, someone was up in the bullpen. Perhaps there were some derisive cheers when TK walked out to the mound. After all, this was even worse than Mays’ previous start, when he gave up 7 ER on 4 H and 4 BB in 1.1 IP. To that point in the young season he had allowed 17 ER on 17 H (3 HR) and 4 BB, an 18.37 ERA. We were all justified in thinking that Mays sucked. He would have been justified in feeling that way about himself. But after a short conversation, TK walked back to the dugout without taking the ball. I don’t know what was said, but the message I got in the bleachers was something like, “Joe, I’m not going to let you abuse this bullpen any more. You’re going to stay out here for 100 pitches. You can keep letting them smack you around the field, or you can make an adjustment and compete. You’re a big league pitcher, and we expect you to get outs. Now go do your job.” To my amazement, Mays went on to complete the next 7.2 IP in just 86 pitches, scattering 3 H and 0 BB while striking out 7. While he continued to take his lumps throughout his 2nd MLB season - 6 of his subsequent 25 GS were clunkers - for me this game came to symbolize a turning point for Mays. Injuries would soon erode his mediocre stuff to the point that he was hopeless. But from the moment of that mound visit to the end of the 2002 regular season, he averaged about 6.1 IP/GS with a 4.14 ERA. (If you give him a mulligan on April 2002, when he was clearly trying to pitch through injury, things look even better.) That’s pretty similar value to what Carl Pavano has given the Twins. Mays’ upside was back-of-the-rotation innings-eater, but he needed a kick in the pants to reach his potential. Which brings us to Francisco Liriano. His first three starts have been every bit as horrid as Mays’ in 2000. Unlike Mays, he has the stuff to be elite. He had a brilliant spring, and looked awesome mowing down the side in order in his first inning in Baltimore. Then a good hitter hit a good pitch out of the park, and the wheels came off. It’s a shame that Liriano’s self-confidence is so brittle that it could be shattered with one swing. But it’s inexcusable that the Twins should have enabled his downward spiral by taking him out so early that day. The WHIP looked terrible, but several of the hits were balls the IF got leather on. The last hit he allowed was a little jam-shot blooper. They weren’t exactly knocking him around the field. But he was out after 4 IP and just 74 pitches. If Valencia hadn’t clanged that 2-out “double” (which another scorer might have ruled an error), Liriano would have allowed just 3 ER in those 4 IP with only 65 pitches. Either way, would they have pulled Pavano from that game? Or Blackburn? I doubt it. And I bet we’ll find over the next couple of months that they won’t pull Marquis from that game, either. How about the second start against the Angels? Liriano had one bad inning, then got on a roll over which he retired 10 of 11 batters. He walked the guy who had taken him into the 2nd deck, then gave up a one-armed double just fair down the line on a pretty decent 1-2 changeup. At 91 pitches, with the 8-9-1 hitters due up in the next inning, he was pulled. Would any of the other starters have been pulled under those circumstances? By yanking Liriano so early in these games, Gardy has sent the message that he doesn’t believe Frankie can get anybody else out. Liriano seems to have gotten the message. He has pitched progressively worse over his 3 GS - he was legitimately putrid against the Yankees, like he was scared to throw the ball over the plate. His manager’s blatant lack of confidence in him can’t be helping. That has to change. Liriano needs to make friends with the fear. His next bullpen session should go something like . Do what TK did, Gardy. Take away the net. On Sunday morning in Tampa, tell Liriano that he’s going to throw 7 innings. He can do it in 90 pitches or 150, but he’s not coming out of there until he gets at least 21 outs. Maybe that will get him attacking hitters again. It worked for Mays. Tough love - . See what happens. Maybe it will make Liriano better. I don't see how it could make him any worse.

Yeah, that would have been a good idea. It probably would have negated the need to do the Delmon trade. So the 2008 team would have had Kemp get all of Delmon's playing time, Span all year instead of Gomez, Bartlett instead of Adam Everett. That's a roster that would have won the Central cleanly, then gone into the playoffs with a rotation of Garza, Baker, Liriano and Blackburn. Oh, well. Still, we can't be sure how tangible that rumor really was. For me, Smith's biggest blunder was putting Breslow on waivers.

I like that they're challenging him. I doon't think of the AFL as a small sample size. Instead, I include it in the larger sample size. Combining the AFL with A+ gives Hicks a .251/.361/.404 line over nearly 650 PA in 2011. The average FSL player had a .716 OPS last year. Hicks' .959 OPS in the AFL was 13th best in the league, 7th best among players with more than 100 PA. It's a hitters league, but he was less experienced than most of the guys in it and he showed he could be dominant. If he falls on his face at AA, they can always bust him back to Fort Myers for a little while like they did with Parmelee and Benson. That seems to have worked out OK.

Is Vasquez going to start? I'm still hoping Gray winds up filling a slot in that rotation (not in the Twins' bullpen). Anyway, it's already a pretty good AAA lineup, and either Parmelee or Revere could still wind up joining it. And I really like the bullpen - at least three of those guys should be able to earn an extended call-up this year. The good people of Rochester should enjoy watching the Redwings a lot more in 2012.

It's easy to be down on the Twins' prospects for this year. 2011 was in many ways their worst season ever, and the offseason moves by Terry Ryan didn't do much more than maintain the talent level they started with last April. So we must be headed for another dreadful season, right? Not so fast. The Twins allowed 804 runs last year. Their pitching staff was last in the Majors in K/9, 29th in ERA and 29th in WHIP. But they were also last in BABIP, suggesting that things might bounce better for them this year. Their FIP (4.30), xFIP (4.33) and SIERA (4.27), though still among the worst in the league, indicate the pitchers deserved better than their 4.60 team ERA. Were they to pitch precisely as poorly in 2012, they could be expected to allow 45 fewer ER over the same number of innings. The defense, somewhat surprisingly, wasn't terrible in terms of range. UZR/150, for example, has them at just -0.4 R for the season. What killed them were errors; they were 28th in errors and fielding %. The 80 unearned runs they allowed were by far the most of the Gardy era. Over the last 10 seasons, they've averaged between 50-60 UER. Cutting back on errors is something the Twins can control, and with the additional emphasis they're placing on fundamentals this spring, I would expect them to reduce their mistakes by about 1/3. Simply replacing the abysmal play they got at SS with Jamey Carroll's excellent career averages at the position would eliminate 19 errors and 13 UER. On the run prevention side of the ledger, if you give the Twins' pitchers a 4.30 ERA over 1450 IP (a roughly league average total), they will allow 693 ER. If you assume that the more focused and slightly upgraded defense will cough up a more typical 55 UER, you get a total of 748 RA. The offensive side is clouded by lingering injury concerns to some key players. But until I hear reports to the contrary, I'm going to assume that everyone is healthy, and therefore ready to contribute at the levels they've established in recent years. The exception is Morneau - I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to return to the MVP-caliber play he displayed before his concussion. Below is a table which builds a simple formulation of runs created: (H+BB-CS)x(TB+.55SB)/(AB+BB). The numbers I'm projecting for the starters are based on the stats from their last 3 healthy seasons, prorated over the number of ABs they racked up in a typical year. Span's averages go from 2008 up to the point of his concussion; Doumit's and Casilla's include 2008 since they missed so many games between 2009-2011. I'm throwing out Mauer's 2011 as an injury aberration and using 2008-2010 instead. With Morneau, I'm also throwing out 2011, but estimating only 75% of his 2008-2010 production over 140 games. I'm only using Major League stats for Valencia and Revere. The starters account for about 77% of the total ABs the Twins had in 2011. The remainder will go to the bench, which I assume will be Butera, Nishioka, Plouffe and Hughes, or similarly unimpressive players. Whoever comes up from Rochester will also be thrown into that pool. I'll give that cast of characters a 23% share of the Punto-esque numbers the Twins hitters as group posted last year (.247/.306/.360). The results: [TABLE=width: 500, align: center] Player AB H BB TB SB CS RC Span 593 172 68 233 24 7 87 Carroll 410 111 50 141 10 2 51 Mauer 523 178 75 263 2 2 111 Morneau 524 118 55 208 0 0 62 Willingham 471 121 67 226 5 1 80 Doumit 419 118 31 188 2 1 62 Valencia 540 145 38 219 3 4 68 Casilla 317 82 28 112 11 2 37 Revere 450 120 26 139 34 9 45 Subs 1240 307 99 446 24 18 133 Total 5487 1472 537 2175 115 46 729 [/TABLE] 729 runs scored. 748 runs allowed. That differential should result in around 80 wins. With no improvement from the pitching staff, and with Morneau hitting something like .225/.299/.397 over 140 games. From there, the upside is considerable. What if Baker is healthy enough to take Diamond's starts? Subtract 7 ER. Or if Zumaya can apply his 3.05 career ERA to Nathan's 44.2 IP? Subtract 9 ER. What if Revere improves his average to .280? Add 5 RC. What if Morneau is 80% of his former self? Add 8 RC. The 2012 Twins don't look like they're going to be a very good team, but they shouldn't suck, either. As long as they aren't unlucky and can put their best guys on the field about 3/4 of the time, they should be around .500. I wouldn't expect any less of them.

It's easy to be down on the Twins' prospects for this year. 2011 was in many ways their worst season ever, and the offseason moves by Terry Ryan didn't do much more than maintain the talent level they started with last April. So we must be headed for another dreadful season, right? Not so fast. The Twins allowed 804 runs last year. Their pitching staff was last in the Majors in K/9, 29th in ERA and 29th in WHIP. But they were also last in BABIP, suggesting that things might bounce better for them this year. Their FIP (4.30), xFIP (4.33) and SIERA (4.27), though still among the worst in the league, indicate the pitchers deserved better than their 4.60 team ERA. Were they to pitch precisely as poorly in 2012, they could be expected to allow 45 fewer ER over the same number of innings. The defense, somewhat surprisingly, wasn't terrible in terms of range. UZR/150, for example, has them at just -0.4 R for the season. What killed them were errors; they were 28th in errors and fielding %. The 80 unearned runs they allowed were by far the most of the Gardy era. Over the last 10 seasons, they've averaged between 50-60 UER. Cutting back on errors is something the Twins can control, and with the additional emphasis they're placing on fundamentals this spring, I would expect them to reduce their mistakes by about 1/3. Simply replacing the abysmal play they got at SS with Jamey Carroll's excellent career averages at the position would eliminate 19 errors and 13 UER. On the run prevention side of the ledger, if you give the Twins' pitchers a 4.30 ERA over 1450 IP (a roughly league average total), they will allow 693 ER. If you assume that the more focused and slightly upgraded defense will cough up a more typical 55 UER, you get a total of 748 RA. The offensive side is clouded by lingering injury concerns to some key players. But until I hear reports to the contrary, I'm going to assume that everyone is healthy, and therefore ready to contribute at the levels they've established in recent years. The exception is Morneau - I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to return to the MVP-caliber play he displayed before his concussion. Below is a table which builds a simple formulation of runs created: (H+BB-CS)x(TB+.55SB)/(AB+BB). The numbers I'm projecting for the starters are based on the stats from their last 3 healthy seasons, prorated over the number of ABs they racked up in a typical year. Span's averages go from 2008 up to the point of his concussion; Doumit's and Casilla's include 2008 since they missed so many games between 2009-2011. I'm throwing out Mauer's 2011 as an injury aberration and using 2008-2010 instead. With Morneau, I'm also throwing out 2011, but estimating only 75% of his 2008-2010 production over 140 games. I'm only using Major League stats for Valencia and Revere. The starters account for about 77% of the total ABs the Twins had in 2011. The remainder will go to the bench, which I assume will be Butera, Nishioka, Plouffe and Hughes, or similarly unimpressive players. Whoever comes up from Rochester will also be thrown into that pool. I'll give that cast of characters a 23% share of the Punto-esque numbers the Twins hitters as group posted last year (.247/.306/.360). The results: [TABLE=width: 500, align: center] Player AB H BB TB SB CS RC Span 593 172 68 233 24 7 87 Carroll 410 111 50 141 10 2 51 Mauer 523 178 75 263 2 2 111 Morneau 524 118 55 208 0 0 62 Willingham 471 121 67 226 5 1 80 Doumit 419 118 31 188 2 1 62 Valencia 540 145 38 219 3 4 68 Casilla 317 82 28 112 11 2 37 Revere 450 120 26 139 34 9 45 Subs 1240 307 99 446 24 18 133 Total 5487 1472 537 2175 115 46 729 [/TABLE] 729 runs scored. 748 runs allowed. That differential should result in around 80 wins. With no improvement from the pitching staff, and with Morneau hitting something like .225/.299/.397 over 140 games. From there, the upside is considerable. What if Baker is healthy enough to take Diamond's starts? Subtract 7 ER. Or if Zumaya can apply his 3.05 career ERA to Nathan's 44.2 IP? Subtract 9 ER. What if Revere improves his average to .280? Add 5 RC. What if Morneau is 80% of his former self? Add 8 RC. The 2012 Twins don't look like they're going to be a very good team, but they shouldn't suck, either. As long as they aren't unlucky and can put their best guys on the field about 3/4 of the time, they should be around .500. I wouldn't expect any less of them.

Where's my post?

Where's my post?