Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jtkoupal

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    439

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Blog Entries posted by jtkoupal

  1. jtkoupal
    It seems pretty clear at this point that a realignment is on the horizon in Major League Baseball. Different ideas have been shared, but the most popular and most sensible one is for baseball to realign their divisions so that the teams are in closer proximity to each other. Such an alignment would probably not help any team more than the Seattle Mariners, who currently have to play 6 series in the state of Texas; more than 2,000 miles away from Seattle.
     
    These ideas have arisen in light of the rumors of baseball expanding to 32 teams, with one team likely to be in Portland, Oregon and the other somewhere in the Eastern time zone. Such expansion will necessitate realignment anyhow, so it's possible that the MLB will wait until then to do anything, but in reality, they could start sooner. Indications are that the goal is for the Oakland A's and Tampa Bay Rays to move into new stadiums before expanding. However, negotiations are slow. The Rays are committed to playing at Tropicana Field through 2027 and have made little progress on what to do after, though they have begun to explore a disastrous idea to split time between Tampa and Montreal when their lease on the Trop is up.
     
    The current travel for the players is grueling, especially for the teams in the west, who are vastly outnumbered by teams in the central and eastern time zones. Instead of waiting for the expansion to happen, which will probably be close to a decade from now, if not longer, the MLB could realign AND shorten the season much sooner. Here's how:
     
    The first step is making the rules uniform. This realignment will jumble up the league, so the DH will either have to be universal or banned first.
     
    Then, the MLB could align their divisions as follows (basically, just take the divisions as they are now and shuffle the deck a little bit)
     
    WESTERN CONFERENCE
    Pacific: Seattle, Oakland, San Francisco, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers
    Southwest: San Diego, Colorado, Arizona, Texas, Houston
    Upper Midwest: Kansas City, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Minnesota, Milwaukee
     
    EASTERN CONFERENCE
    Rust Belt: Detroit, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh
    Metropolitan: Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Boston, Philadelphia
    Southeast: Washington, Baltimore, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Miami
     
    I like this arrangement for a number of reasons, it's not perfect, especially for the southwest, but it's better than what they have. Also, there was no choice but to break up either Chicago's teams or KC and St. Louis. It's unfortunate, but something had to give.
     
    As for the length of season, this schedule would make a ton of sense:
     
    Vs Division opponents: 15 games vs each X 4 teams = 60 Games
    Vs Rest of Conference: 6 games X 10 teams = 60 Games
    Interleague: 6 games X 5 teams =30 Games (Play a 3 game series at home and on the road vs an entire division)
    Total of 150 games
     
    As I mentioned, it's not likely that the MLB will do anything until expansion happens (which I'm pretty indifferent about, honestly). However, in order to give the players a more reasonable travel schedule, and to give fans more chances to travel and see their team in nearby stadiums, this realignment makes a ton of sense.
  2. jtkoupal
    Happy Memorial Day, Twins Daily! I hope that you all are enjoying your long weekend and getting to spend some time with your families while we, as a nation, honor our fallen heroes.
     
    Memorial Day is a big day. It marks the beginning of when the MLB standings start to mean something. Now almost a third of the way into the season, there can be no more "small sample" excuses, no more "cold weather" excuses, and a slow start is more than just a slow start now. With all of that said, here is a look at the AL Central entering play on Memorial Day:
     
    Twins: 36-16
    Indians: 26-26 10 GB
    White Sox: 23-29 13 GB
    Tigers: 19-31 16 GB
    Royals: 18-34 18 GB
     
    Nobody is surprised about the bottom three, but all of baseball is surprised by what is at the top. The Indians, who are without Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger, are as average as their .500 record suggests. They have scored the 5th-fewest runs in baseball and now have a patchwork rotation because of the injuries. To compound matters, Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco have struggled to hold down the fort in Kluber and Clevinger's absence. Bauer only has one quality start in his past six tries and Carrasco has a 4.60 ERA on the season.
     
    As for the Twins, there has been plenty of literature on this site about how they have been doing. I am not going to reiterate it, I will instead bring something else to the table.
     
    *The Twins are currently playing to a .692 win percentage. If they were to sustain that pace, they would end the season with 112 wins.
     
    *The Twins Magic Number to clinch the AL Central is currently 101 with 110 games left for each team, so any combination of 101 Twins wins and Indians losses will clinch the division for the Twins.
     
    *If the Twins were to play .500 the rest of the way, they would end up with 91 wins. For the Indians to reach 91 wins, they would need to go 65-45, a win percentage of .591. In other words, if the Twins played .500 the rest of the way, the Indians would need to play at a 96-win pace to catch them.
     
    *The Twins will, most likely, play better than .500 the rest of the way, but probably won't finish with 112 wins, either. So, for example, let's say the Twins play (approximately) .550 for the next 110 games. That would give them 96 wins, a reasonable total. The Indians would then need to go 70-40 (.636, a 103-win pace) to catch the Twins.
     
    Now, I realize that the math does not look good for the Indians. However, there are still 16 head-to-head matchups between the Twins and Indians, 9 of which are at Progressive Field. Realistically, the Indians need to win BARE MINIMUM 10, but more likely 11 or 12, of those match-ups to have a chance. If they can't muster that, then they probably don't have a prayer. FiveThirtyEight currently has a 94% probability assigned to the Twins to make the postseason, with an 89% chance of winning the Central. It's not over yet, but it's getting late early for the Tribe.
  3. jtkoupal
    I will be the first to admit, I was absolutely stunned by the Twins poor start in 2018 and am equally as stunned by their dynamite start to 2019. All of you on Twins Daily are aware of this, but just to reiterate for the sake of context:
    -The Twins came off of a 103-loss 2016 season to nab the second Wild-Card spot in 2017 with a record of 85-77.
    -The Twins had an emerging group of youngsters such as Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sanó, José Berríos, and Eddie Rosario that seemed poised to improve after strong finishes to 2017 (with the exception of Sanó, who as an All-Star but missed the last two months due to injury)
    -The Twins also were anchored by veterans such as Brian Dozier, Kyle Gibson, Eduardo Escobar, Joe Mauer, and Jason Castro, who were all instrumental to the Twins' run at the end of 2017.
    -The Twins then added veterans Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke to shore up a weak bullpen that waved goodbye to Brandon Kintzler at the 2017 Trade Deadline, when the Twins were below .500 and looked to be out of the race. They also traded for Jake Odorizzi, who the brass liked and believed had untapped potential (he was a former top prospect, after all) and signed starter Lance Lynn, who had a very good track record in St. Louis.
    The result? A 7-4 start, followed by a 3-13 stretch that included an 8-game losing streak, en route to a disappointing 78-84 finish to the season. It also was the gut-wrenching goodbye to fan-favorites Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar, in addition to Duke, Rodney, Lynn, and, to my surprise, Ryan Pressly.
    I, along with many other Twins fans, held on to hope for dear life until the Twins were swept in a three-game series in Kansas City after the All-Star Break. At that point, I knew and finally, reluctantly, accepted that it was over. A once-promising season thrown down the drain. However, looking back, is that final 78-84 mark actually surprising? And is it actually bad? Let's stop and consider.
    It all started before the season started, when Ervin Santana, the ace of the Twins in 2017, delayed his surgery until February and would not be able to start the season on-time. As it turned out, he didn't throw a pitch until August. Then, the news broke that Jorge Polanco would miss 80 games with a suspension for testing positive for Stanozolol, a banned substance. The Twins were surely upset, but not panicked, as Lynn was signed and Escobar became the regular shortstop and hit very well.
    In April, the Twins had three consecutive games postponed due to weather, which ended up giving the Twins 4 days off before going to Puerto Rico, where they played in a 16-inning game that resulted in a win vs the Indians. Then the 8-game losing streak began.
    The barrage of setbacks then continued when it was announced that Jason Castro was going to miss the rest of the season. Jason Castro was not a huge weapon offensively at this point, but his value defensively was immense. The Twins turned to veteran Bobby Wilson, who almost gave up baseball before the season, to receive a bulk of the playing time alongside Mitch Garver, who was still very unpolished.
    Byron Buxton then proceeded to make 2 trips to the Disabled List and ended up only playing in 28 games all season. That opened the door for Ryan LaMarre and, eventually, Jake Cave. Cave showed an ability to hit the ball, but he and Robbie Grossman in the outfield on a regular basis is clearly not ideal and a substantial downgrade from having Buxton in center, even if he put up mediocre numbers at the plate.
    Then June rolled around and the Twins were treading water, fighting for their lives to stay alive. The Twins were forced into making the nuclear decision to send a struggling, and by some reports disinterested Miguel Sanó not to Triple-A, but to Single-A for a complete reboot. His struggles opened the door for Ehire Adrianza to play shortstop every day until Polanco returned. Similar to Cave, Adrianza is a decent player, but he is not a healthy, productive Sanó. The more bench players that have to play regularly, the harder it is to win games.
    To compound that, Addison Reed, who was solid for the Twins early, started to break down from overuse and spent a lot of time on the Disabled List. To this day, he has not regained his already-declining velocity and was just recently Designated for Assignment.
    The Twins embarked on a late-June, early-July, 9-game road trip to Chicago (3 with each team) and Milwaukee. The Twins went 1-8 on that trip and were, in my mind and the mind of most, dead in the water. Then they went 9-2 on a homestead against the Orioles, Royals, and Rays right before the All-Star Break and were hanging on by just enough of a thread to keep me optimistic. Then the aforementioned Royals series happened and I knew what little hope was left was gone.
    The last week of July saw the departure of Brian Dozier, most notably. Another reason for the Twins struggles was that Dozier was never able to get it going after having a hot first week in Baltimore and Pittsburgh with 4 home runs. It was all downhill from there, though a dramatic walk-off grand slam in the last game before the break provided one last thing to cheer about before his send-off to LA.
    To summarize, here is what happened to the Twins in 2018:
    -Injured starting catcher, who was replaced by a veteran backup.
    -Injured starting center fielder
    -Suspended starting shortstop
    -Injured ace
    -Injured relief-ace
    -Declining starting second baseman
    -Disinterested former-All-Star third baseman who had to be demoted and rebooted
    All things considered, it is no surprise that the Twins underperformed in 2018. All told, perhaps 78 wins is not so bad after all. 2019 is off to a great start; this was the expectation last year, but we're getting it a year late! In my opinion, this team is better than the Opening Day 2018 team.
  4. jtkoupal
    The offseason has been slow thus far for the Twins. The only notable additions have been Jonathan Schoop, C.J. Cron, and Ronald Torreyes. There have been some rumblings about Nelson Cruz heading to Minnesota in 2019, but thus far, no notable additions have been made. If the season started today, Minnesota's lineup would look something like this:
     
    C: Jason Castro
    1B: C.J. Cron
    2B: Jonathan Schoop
    SS: Jorge Polanco
    3B: Miguel Sanó
    LF: Eddie Rosario
    CF: Byron Buxton
    RF: Max Kepler
    DH: Tyler Austin
     
    Looking up and down that lineup, there are reasons for optimism. There is also plenty of room for concern. There are no sure bets in that lineup. The Twins are hoping for a lot of breakthroughs, and they will need to happen in order for the Twins offense to be competitive in 2019.
     
    Jason Castro is not an offensive catcher, but catcher has become a starved offensive position in Major League Baseball. He has a career wRC+ of 92, very similar to his 2017 mark of 93. Castro only played in 19 games last year, so a return to health would be huge for the Twins. That being said, it's far from a guarantee that he will be healthy and productive. Castro could be the first of many coin flips in the Twins lineup next season.
     
    C.J. Cron is a solid player who jacked 30 homers for the Rays in 2018 while posting a wRC+ of 122. However, his OBP was pretty low at .323 and his career wRC+ is only 111. It's possible that playing in the AL East boosted his power numbers. Cron is a decent player, but it would be hard to count on him being more than just decent.
     
    Jonathan Schoop belted 32 for Baltimore in 2017, but the total dipped to just 21 bombs in 131 games in 2018. The Twins are taking a chance on Schoop, hoping he regains his 2017 form. If this is starting to sound familiar, I promise it's not going to get any better. The Twins are flipping a coin with Schoop, hoping he bounces back and fills the void left by Brian Dozier at Second Base.
     
    Jorge Polanco had an underrated half-season in 2018. He put up 1.3 WAR despite missing the first 80 games due to suspension. I believe Polanco may be destined for Second Base in the future, and I don't imagine him being a star offensive player, but for now, he will be close to average at shortstop defensively while putting up a decent OBP (such as the .345 he posted in 2018).
     
    Miguel Sanó might be the most frustrating player the Twins have had in recent years. Not just because of his underperformance in 2018, but also due to the continuing questions about his character and drive. It is likely that his poor fitness affected his performance last year. It is difficult to be optimistic about his future with the information we have now.
     
    Eddie Rosario was an elite player in the second half of 2017 through the first half of 2018. Unfortunately, his production fell off a cliff after that (wRC+ of just 64 in the second half, compared to 137 in the first half, and 127 in the second half of 2017). Hopefully, his dip was due to injuries and he will be ready to go. However, it is not out of the question that he crashed back to earth after about a year of elite production.
     
    Byron Buxton is much like Miguel Sanó from the standpoint that they have been counting on him since 2012 to resurrect the franchise. I am not comparing Buxton's character and work-ethic to Sanó's, but I am comparing their importance to the franchise. Buxton has had a calamity of injuries and has struggled to gain any consistency on offense. His defense is never in question, but the career wRC+ of 76 and the piling injuries is legitimate cause for concern now that he is almost four years into his Major League career.
     
    Max Kepler has the organization, and fan base, in purgatory almost as much as any other player. We keep waiting. And Waiting. And Waiting. But the breakout hasn't happened. He has a hot streak, like he did to start 2018. Then he sleepwalks. Then he has a miserable month. Then he heats up. Then he sleepwalks again. Kepler isn't going to put up a 147 wRC+ every month (April 2018), but he needs to avoid the 28 wRC+ month (June 2018). Sooner or later, some consistency is necessary.
     
    Tyler Austin may be the odd man out if the Twins do land Nelson Cruz, who would be huge for this lineup. It's possible the Twins will find somebody else for 1B/DH anyhow. That being said, if the season started today, it is likely that Austin would get the bulk of the workload at DH. Austin has talent, but he is probably a platoon player at best.
     
    I'm not trying to be too much of a cynic, but it is hard to look at the lineup and be too optimistic about everything going right. A lot has to go in the Twins favor for this offense, as it is today, to be competitive in 2019. Falvine has their work cut out for them, time to spend a few bucks (or maybe a few more).
  5. jtkoupal
    Brian Dozier has been a fan-favorite for Twins fans since he started to break out in 2013. Every female in the Twin Cities has a crush on him, and in general, everyone respects the player that he is on the field and the person that he is off the field.
     
    For me personally, Brian Dozier has been my favorite player since Justin Morneau. Those two are my favorite Twins of all time, in some order (I was not around for Hrbek, Puckett, Killebrew, Carew, etc.) and I would hate to see him move on.
     
    Dozier is fresh off of a season in where he hit 42 home runs, which was good enough for a third place tie with Edwin Encarnacion and Khris Davis. However, it isn't just the 42 home runs that should capture one's eye, it should also be the 99 runs he drove in while hitting in just an average lineup. Furthermore, he finished 12th in the MLB in Slugging Percentage at .546, 20th in OPS at .886, and that has stayed healthy throughout his career while racking up Web Gems at second base.
     
    Far and away, Dozier is the best player on Minnesota's roster at the moment. However, the Twins must trade Brian Dozier.
     
    While his offensive production will be very difficult to replace with the players we own right now, it is also important to understand that Dozier is going into his age 30 season. At this age, it is worth questioning how many impact years he has left. He will undoubtedly be an effective player for several more years, but it is worth questioning whether he will put together many, if any, more years like this year or even the year prior. By no means can I predict the future, but it is certainly questionable whether Dozier will ever again amass 40+ bombs like he did in 2016, a question in which general managers around baseball are asking themselves as we speak. Dozier does certainly have more very good years left to play, but the real questions are "how good and how many?"
     
    After losing more than 100 games in 2016, it is clear that the Twins are still not that close to competing. Andy MacPhail would argue that "Progress isn't linear," and by no means is he wrong, however given the state of the pitching staff and some question marks on offense as well, it would be a stretch to consider the Twins to be a contender in the next couple of years. By the time the Twins would be legitimate contenders again, Brian Dozier will be well into his 30's and his production is very likely to diminish by that time. If he is moved now, the Twins would have two or three top prospects come their way that they could develop for when the team is ready to step back into contention. Also, it would give them a chance to see what Jorge Polanco is capable of now instead of letting him waste away on the bench until Dozier is eventually cleared later.
     
    Finally, and most importantly, Brian Dozier must be traded because his value is, quite possibly, the highest it is ever going to be. 2017 projects to be a good year for Dozier as well, and keeping him until sometime next season or next offseason could potentially pay off, but that also comes as a major risk. There is no guarantee of what level Dozier will be playing at next season. For all we know, he could tear his ACL in Spring Training. If we trade him now, we would acquire at least two prospects, quite possibly even a third, if rumors are true of the Dodgers willingness to add to their package.
     
    Of course, I recognize that teams do not always offer enough in return for a certain player. If nobody offers enough in return, then it is absolutely better to keep Dozier. But if there are top prospects involved in the discussion, then it is best for the franchise moving forward to ship Dozier and bring in some fresh new talent for the future.
     
    Watching star players and favorite players move on is painful to watch. This would be the most crushing trade since Justin Morneau was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 31, 2013. However, because of his age, his projected future production, and the current standing of the franchise, it is necessary for the Minnesota Twins, if offered a fair package, to trade Brian Dozier.
  6. jtkoupal
    I know we have a playoff spot to chase and we should worry about what is happening on the field right now, but I think that it's never a bad idea to look ahead a little bit, especially since the Twins are fading fast and the teams competing with us are probably a little bit better, Toronto for example. With that being said, here is a look at some ideas I have for this offseason.
     
    Likely to leave via Free Agency:
     
    SP Mike Pelfrey: Pelfrey has been a pleasant surprise in the Twins starting rotation this season, posting a 3.65 ERA in 118.1 innings, but that spot in the rotation should belong to Trevor May now, and most certainly should in the future. I have nothing against Palfrey, but Trevor May is a piece of the future that can't keep rotting away in the bullpen.
     
    LHP Brian Duensing: Brian Duensing has had his ups and downs this season, but as a whole he has complied a 5.88 ERA in just 26.0 innings. He had some injuries earlier in the season and has been better lately, but I would be surprised if he stays in Minnesota after putting up lackluster numbers in an already abysmal bullpen.
     
     
    Might be gone:
     
    RF Torii Hunter: Torii Hunter has most certainly been a positive energy for this team. His presence I do believe has helped Aaron Hicks blossom and I'm sure has been an influence on Byron Buxton while he has been up. However, Torii is finally showing signs of slowing down, as evidenced by his .188/.231/.329 slash in the month of July, equaling a lackluster .560 OPS. The Twins should look to keep Torii in an instructor's role or a coaching role, but I think right field should go to someone like an Aaron Hicks or a Max Kepler.
     
     
    Top On-Roster Trade Chips:
     
    OF Aaron Hicks: Aaron Hicks has finally blossomed, at least it seems, into the player we all thought he was going to be. He managed a 1.001 OPS in July and had looked good in center field as well. With Byron Buxton right on Hicks's heals, this winter may be a good time to shop Hicks. If not, moving him to right field is a good option as well.
     
    SP Tommy Milone: Milone has been another pleasant surprise for the Twins this year, pitching to a 3.76 ERA in 81.1 Innings this year. He has looked especially good since being recalled from Rochester in early June. Tommy might not net a large prospect return, but if the Twins could get a nice relief pitcher in return, the trade might be worth it, as the Twins have a log jam of starters right now and not enough quality relievers.
     
    3B Trevor Plouffe: While Plouffe has developed into an above-average third baseman, it may be worthwhile to look into moving him. An OPS+ of 107 puts him at 7% above league average. Trading Plouffe could net a decent return while opening up third base for Miguel Sano. Terry Ryan will be reluctant to do this, but it makes sense if the price is right.
     
     
    DFA Candidates:
     
    A.J. Achter
    Logan Darnell
    Aaron Thompson
    Chris Herrmann
    Eric Fryer
    Eduardo Nunez
    Shane Robinson
     
     
    Potential Free Agent Targets:
     
    C Alex Avila: We all know this guy. Alex Avila has offensive potential, but has not lived up to the hope he showed in 2011. He has missed a lot of time due to injury this year, but he has a carer OPS+ of 102, though that was largely helped by his 142 OPS+ in 2011. Defensively, he is a solid backstop. His dWar the last several years have been higher than Kurt Suzuki's, so he would be a cheap upgrade from Suzuki, but not a significant one.
     
    C Matt Wieters: Matt Wieters playing like Matt Wieters would be a significant upgrade both at the plate and behind it. The biggest concerns with Wieters is whether or not his arm can withstand being the everyday catcher and also what kind of contract he might demand. It is not everyday that an All-Star catcher hits the open market, so it is kind of a long shot that the Twins will have a shot at him, but it absolutely must be considered. He would provide a force in the middle of the lineup and be a rock behind the plate. That could make Kurt Suzuki into a solid backup catcher.
     
    SS Ian Desmond: Ian Desmond is in the midst of his worst season ever, with a slash of .217/.263/.358 with 11 home runs. Sadly, those numbers would still be an upgrade from the Twins shortstops this season, but a veteran shortstop like Ian Desmond could very easily be a low risk/ high reward project for the Twins and provide them with some stability up the middle which has been needed for so many years.
     
    RHP Tyler Clippard: Tyler Clippard has always been a reliable relief pitcher, posing a career 2.85 ERA in 9 MLB seasons. The Twins are in need of quality relief pitching.
     
    RHP Darren O'Day: Same story as above, a quality reliever who has a good track record, a career 2.35 ERA in 8 seasons.
     
    The Twins really should consider adding two quality set up men in front of Glen Perkins. We see what Kansas City is able to do with Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland. Ned Yost only has to manage a 6 inning game. It takes a ton of pressure off the starting pitchers if you have a shutdown 7th-8th-9th inning bullpen that can be relied on every day.
     
    Terry Ryan certainly has some decisions to make this coming offseason. The Twins are entering a phase where they are about to have more talent than places to put it, leading for some interesting decisions for Terry Ryan.
     
    Thank You to all who read.
  7. jtkoupal
    The Minnesota Twins have certainly been a pleasant surprise to their fans thus far, but it seems as though the season is catching up to them. A team that was hotter than a firecracker during the month of May is now seeing a sink back down to earth. While it would be exciting to see this team break out of their funk and stay in the race for the pennant down the stretch, I have difficulties in foreseeing it happening, and for several reasons. Furthermore, I have a few concerns for the organization for the foreseeable future after this season, of which I will share with you.
     
    The first legitimate concern I have is the lack of top-tier starting pitching. Entering the year, Phil Hughes was supposed to be the ace. That has not been the case. He has struggled, in particular with the long ball, and even if he was putting up numbers that resembled last year, the reality is that he is not a front-end starter, like a David Price or a Felix Hernandez. Kyle Gibson has been effective and much more consistent than last season, Trevor May has been pitching much better as of late, he looks as though he could stick around, and Mike Pelfrey has been a very pleasant surprise. Pelfrey has probably emerged as the best pitcher on the staff right now. On a bright note, we will be seeing Ervin Santana very soon. He will certainly be able to give the rotation a boost if all goes well, but he too is not a front-end starting pitcher. If the Twins are actually serious about contending this year and for years to come, they need an ace, a legitimate ace.
     
    Another area of concern I have is catcher. Kurt Suzuki has regressed considerably and the backup options are not comforting. Chris Herrmann and Eric Fryer are not guys you want in your big-league lineup. Obviously, the Twins would like Josmil Pinto on the roster, but the defensive concerns and injuries have kept him rotting in AAA. The Twins do not really have any options for a catcher of the future close to the big leagues right now. So if they want a legitimate everyday catcher, they will need to look outside the organization for him.
     
    Joe Mauer has been awful. There is no way to sugar coat that. There is no place for a first baseman with 2 home runs and hitting in the .250s. Right now, we could put Vargas or Sano at first base and the production would likely be higher. Mauer is still a respected hitter who might break out of the funk he's been in, but he needs to start producing more in the extra-base hits department. The only saving grace for Joe's season right now is that he has excelled with runners in scoring position. Other than that, his performance is subpar and should not be tolerated any longer.
     
    Second Base can be left alone. Brian Dozier has emerged as one of the best second baseman in the league. He will probably be snubbed of an All-Star appearance by bigger names such as Cano and Pedroia as well as Royals fans voting in one of the worst second baseman in the game, one Omar Infante, but as far as I am concerned, Dozier is an All-Star and he can hold down second base for years to come.
     
    Shortstop is a concern for right now, as Santana has struggled and our current options are light-hitting Escobar and Nunez, but the future looks bright at that position with Jorge Polanco almost ready and Nick Gordon a few years away. I would not be opposed to calling up Polanco right now and giving him a chance to handle shortstop.
     
    Third base is not a concern. Trevor Plouffe, though scuffling now, has been very solid over there and the best option might be to extend him in a couple of years and keep him over there. Sano may not be a viable option at third base, so he may need to move anyway, as his minor league numbers at the position are astoundingly bad.
     
    The outfield will be fine. Rosario, Buxton, and any combination of Hunter, Hicks, maybe even Arcia will fortify a solid outfield.
     
    The bullpen however is a huge concern. They have been shaky at times. Perkins is one of the best closers in the game and Boyer and Fien are good set-up men, but guys like Duensing, Thompson, and Tonkin are questionable and if the Twins are serious about this season they should probably look for an upgrade or two here.
     
    I don't think the Twins will make the postseason. Chances are they will play mediocre baseball the rest of the way and maybe end up with about 75-80 wins before it's all said and done.
     
    With that, I am excited to see guys like Sano, Buxton, Polanco, and Berrios all up in the majors contributing in the near future. Guys, the losing is going to end soon. Go Twins!
  8. jtkoupal
    1. Paul Molitor Will Be the Next Twins Manager
     
    OK, maybe this is not that bold, but it is most likely going to happen. He has received nothing but compliments from Gardy and some players, so let's hope he is the guy.
     
    2. The Twins Will Sign Either Justin Masterson or Brandon McCarthy
     
    Pitching, pitching, pitching.... That has been problem number 1 the last 4 years. Either of these are good options that will help turn the Twins rotation around. They are not Scherzer, Lester, or Sheilds, but they will perform well.
     
    3. Josmil Pinto Will be Traded
     
    Terry Ryan and the Twins are dead-set on Kurt Suzuki behind the plate, so that leaves Josmil Pinto in a situation where he must either rot on the bench or rot in AAA if he stays with us. Otherwise, we could trade him for a more valuable asset to us, otherwise he will rot either on the bench or in AAA.
     
    4. The Twins Will Not Lose 90 Games
     
     
    This year will finally be the year where the Twins approach .500. I'm not going to say that they will eclipse .500, but come year's end, they will approach it. They will not lose 90 game in 2015. There are young players developing, new management, new coaching, and the pitching will improve. The turnaround will take its next step in 2015.
     
    5. Joe Mauer's Decline Will Continue
     
    Joe Mauer had a bad year by Joe Mauer standards. If his name was not Joe Mauer, he'd be considered "average". However, the large contract is really killing the organization right now. Think what $23MM could get in Free Agency. 2 solid pitchers maybe. 1 superstar pitcher, and then a little extra. His season was not good, and I wouldn't hold your breath on it getting any better from here.
     
    6. Kyle Gibson Will Emerge as the Twins' Ace
     
    Gibby showed flashes of what he can do in 2014, but the year of experience and familiarity with different hitters and situations will improve his game plan. He will execute his pitches more effectively and we will see the strikeout number climb a little. I don't expect Phil Hughes to have a year like he had this year. I expect Big Phil to sink to the mean a little bit. He will be solid, but I believe Gibson will overtake him as the Ace.
     
    7. Oswaldo Arcia and Kennys Vargas Will Combine for 55 HR
     
    Given that they healthy, Ozzy and Kennys will be forces in the middle of the lineup for the Twins in 2015 and beyond. Both showed what they are capable of doing last year. Expect Vargas to get pitches to hit, as he is hitting behind Mauer, and expect Arcia to swing at enough pitches (balls, strikes, it doesn't matter) to hit his share of bombs.
     
    8. Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton Will Debut
     
    It's almost inevitable that these two prospects will get their feet wet in 2015. Especially if Hicks and whoever plays left field are not performing. Miguel Sano will displace Plouffe, which could lead to a move to the outfield or a move to a different city.
  9. jtkoupal
    Here we are, at the tail end of another lost season. This season, in the beginning, was a different season. The team fought, there was some urgency, and the team was able to keep its head above water for the first two months. After Kyle Gibson pitched a gem in Detroit in early June, I, along with many others in Twins Territory, were starting to become optimistic that something decent may become of this season. That lasted all of half of a week, as the team fell into disarray immediately and have never looked back.
     
    With this season almost definitely going toward 90+ losses, as they would need to finish at least 11-5 to avoid it, questions pop up. Will Gardy be back? Will Andy be back with the poor starting rotation we have seen the last 4 years? Will Terry Ryan be back?
     
    You can make your argument on the quality of a manager that Gardy is. I don't doubt that he is a decent manager. However, you can't argue that the roster management has been questionable and that Gardy has made some other in-game decisions that simply leave you thinking, "why, Gardy?" Of course not everything falls on Gardy, but in business, any business, the manager is often the one who can produce the most change. Gardy was once a very successful manager, but the game has changed. He is now dealing with a team of young players, something that doesn't really seem to be his strength. The talent has been there, but not superstar level. But when you lose 90 games 4 years in a row, something must change.
     
    Rick Anderson is also a decent pitching coach, but he also isn't getting through to some of these kids. When good pitchers put a Twins cap on and suck on a consistent basis, it raises some eyebrows.
     
    Terry Ryan would be someone that I would be OK keeping as long as his relationship with Gardenhire doesn't get in the way of what is best for the team. On most teams, Gardy would have probably been gone 2 years ago, I have trouble believing that there is a strong relationship tethering the Front Office to Gardy. The relationship became even more evident when they decided to give him a new contract after 3 poor seasons. Most organizations in any sport would never have done that, but this one did, which tells me something.
     
    Will they be back? My personal opinion is that Terry should be back but not Gardy and the coaching staff. I have a feeling that they all will, even if they really shouldn't. This feeling does not have anything to do with Terry's comments earlier this summer about him and Gardy probably being back. You wouldn't go out and announce that during the season.
  10. jtkoupal
    As the rebuild progresses and our prospects approach readiness, there are a few moves that must be made throughout the organization.
     
    Front Office: FIRE GM Terry Ryan: Terry Ryan is an intelligent GM, but a change at the position is needed for a couple of reasons. We need someone who can better recognize talent and we need someone who doesn't have a friendship with Manager Ron Gardenhire. Perhaps others need to be shown the door as well.
     
    Coaching Staff: FIRE Tom Brunansky, Rick Anderson, and Scott Ullger.
     
    Manager: FIRE Ron Gardenhire. PROMOTE Paul Molitor to Manager. Even if Gardy isn't the problem, I can tell you right now that he isn't part of the solution. We need a guy who can motivate his players to keep their heads in the game and show effort, something that lacks at times for us.
     
    Free Agency: DO NOTHING! Just bring the kids up to play. We aren't going to win next year anyway, no need to bring in a crusty veteran to suck away plate appearances and/or innings from the kids who need them.
     
    Look to Deal:
    SP Phil Hughes (sell high. His track record is good year-bad year-good-bad. Could make sense to avoid a disaster)
    SU Jared Burton
    SU Casey Fien
    LHP Brian Duensing
     
    DFA:
    SP Mike Pelfrey
    RHP Samuel Deduno OR SP Yohan Pino
    SP Kris Johnson
    UTIL Eduardo Nuñez (sorry, no more helmet fly-offs!)
    SS Pedro Florimon
     
    Call Up From Minors:
    SP Alex Meyer
    RHP Michael Tonkin
    3B Miguel Sano
    OF Aaron Hicks
    C Josmil Pinto
    P A.J. Atcher
     
    So, basically, a roster like:
     
    Rotation:
    Gibson
    Nolasco (not going anywhere. Too much $. Plus I believe he won't be this bad forever, just needs less pressure)
    Milone
    May
    Meyer
     
    Bullpen:
    Perkins (CL)
    Tonkin
    Thielbar
    Atcher
    Pressley
    Swarzak
    Deduno/Pino
     
    Catchers:
    Kurt Suzuki- Starter
    Josmil Pinto-backup
     
    Infielders:
    Joe Mauer-1B
    Brian Dozier-2B
    Danny Santana-SS
    Miguel Sano-3B
    Eduardo Escobar- Bench
    Trevor Plouffe- Utility
     
    Outfielders:
    Aaron Hicks
    Jordan Schafer
    Oswaldo Arcia
    Chris Parmelee
     
    Designated Hitter:
    Kennys Vargas
     
    Thoughts?
  11. jtkoupal
    The day has finally arrived. It was announced that Trevor May will start Saturday night for the Twins against Jeff Samardzija and the Oakland Athletics at the Overstock.com Colosseum. When the move was announced Friday afternoon, fans in the Upper Midwest rejoiced in anticipation of seeing n important piece of the future take the field for the Twins.
     
    So with that being said, what can we realistically expect from May? What would satisfy us as fans?
     
    Of course, we would all like to see him burst onto the scene and become an ace right out of the gate. Unfortunately, that rarely happens to young pitchers who have just gotten called up to make their debuts. Of course it will probably not be smooth sailing for the rest of the year. What we can hope is that he is more successful in his first tastes of the show than Kyle Gibson was last year. In 10 starts last year, Gibson had an ERA of 6.53, a FIP of 5.17, a 1.75 WHIP, and a -0.8 pitchers WAR. Barring a demotion, which Gibson got last August, May should be in line to get about 8-10 starts himself.
     
    In 17 starts in Rochester this year, May owns a 2.93 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. What I like, though, is the 8.6 K/9, which is likely to be lower in the bigs, though, possibly about 7-7.5.
     
    In terms of how he will fare this year, it is never predictable. Some young pitchers burst onto the scene and blow away hitters like their in Double-A and others can't get anybody out. Add in the fact that FIP and xFIP, two of the best stats to predict future performance, are not calculated in the minor leagues and the ability to predict is even lower. What we have to do, though, is stay patient through his ups and downs the next couple of years.
     
    Calling up May is the right move. He needs to take the ball every fifth day for the remainder of the season. There is nothing to lose. This season is probably going to end in a last place finish and the way things are going, possibly another 90+ loss season. Even if he struggles, he needs to be with the big club along with a few of our other prospects. Houston is playing their future, even some players who aren't 100% ready, because they realize that there is nothing to lose and that they are a couple of years away from being serious contenders. We need to do the same.
     
    One concern I have with this move though is that I worry about exposing more top prospects to the culture in our dugout. We have seen so many prospects get called up and never live up to their potential, which after seeing so much of that, tells me that it's a problem with motivation, which comes from the coaching staff and management. I worry that May will be the next victim of that culture.
     
    However, in terms of what I project Trevor May to become in the future, I expect his 2015 to be similar to Kyle Gibson's 2014. I expect some hot and cold streaks. Maybe not as extreme as Gibson's, but they will happen. I would expect something along the lines of an ERA around 3.80, a WHIP around 1.30, and a FIP around 3.70 in 2015. Down the road, he has a very high ceiling. I project him to be a number 2 or 3 starter and hopefully participating in a few All-Star Games.
     
    To conclude, Go Twins, good luck to Trevor May, and have a great weekend to all of you users here at Twins Daily.
  12. jtkoupal

    Gardy's Culture

    By jtkoupal,

    The day has to be coming, doesn't it? This is the 4th year in a row that could be heading toward 90+ losses. For most managers or coaches in any sport, 1 or 2 poor seasons spells the end of their days with that team. Ron Gardenhire, however, has managed to keep his job during a dark time when a change is necessary. To make matters worse, much of the coaching staff has stuck around as well. One of these days, a change has to happen.
     
    The root of the problem is a front office that is tethered to Gardy. If not sooner, Gardy should have been out the door when his contract was up after 2013. Of course, pathetic Pohlad's, St. Pete, and Terrry Ryan thought Gardy was "the right man to turn things around". The Front Office has almost a seemingly unhealthy relationship with Gardenhire. A relationship that, all things considered, comes across as a "friendship" and not a working relationship.
     
    As expected, the plan failed miserably and we are left with another coin toss on whether Gardy returns. How many former Twins need to make the All-Star Game to wake people up and make them realize that much of that falls back on the culture that Gardy creates. As with any business, from Professional a Baseball to Fast Food, the manager sets the tone. A lackadaisical manager like Gardy is going to produce a lackadaisical team like the Twins have been recently.
     
    Another problem with Gardy is is in-game decisions. He always leaves pitchers in the game a few batters too long. I could only imagine how many wins he would have if he were a more intelligent manager. We've given him new players, we've shaken up the coaching staff a little bit, and things have gotten worse instead of better. The managerial ineptitude is the only explanation for what we've seen the past 3 years.
     
    In my opinion, Gardy isn't a horrible manager. His problem is that he doesn't know how to get through to the young players. In his earlier years, he made the playoffs often with players developed under Tom Kelly (Morneau, Mauer, Cuddyer, etc.), but no that most of them are gone, he's left with a bunch of guys that are his responsibility. He hasn't found a way to motivate the young players. In my opinion, his problem is that he's too far in the Stone Age. He's too old-fashioned. The game has changed and he needs to realize that. You can't manage 25 year olds in 2014 like you could manage older veterans back in the day. The game is different and people are different.
     
    Gardy's loosing culture in the dugout is a reason why I support the Twins' decision to keep Meyer and May in Rochester. Calling them up now is setting these kids up for failure. Putting guys like Pino, Johnson and a few veterans in the rotation is fine by me until Gardy is gone. I quiver at the thought of our young pitching prospects being part of Gardy's unmotivating culture that has led to so many flops for our guys and success for everyone who leaves. Get Gardy out of there and call these kids up to play for Paul Molitor (or the 6-0 Terry Steinbach...just kidding). Paul Molitor has more leadership potential than Gardy. Gardy has his buddies (Matt Lecroy, his bowling buddy, who we kept over Big Papi) and often doesn't recognize the talent that's there.
     
    If there is one thing clear, it's that changes need to be made. These kids can't possibly amount to a World Series contender under a manager who boasts a career 6-21 record in the postseason, including being swept in the first round 3 times and only advancing past the ALDS once, in 2002 when we lost to the Angels 4-1 in the series, and never really so much as threatening a World Series appearance. He couldn't find a way to go deep into the postseason with 2 MVP's, a Cy Young, and a Gold Glove center fielder who could hit pretty darn well, too.
     
    Maybe Gardy will leave and be a World Series manager somewhere else, it would fit the ex-Twin mold, but there is no use for him in Minnesota. I've thought it's been time to move on for 6 years, but now, I know that we're well passed due. I'm not from Minnesota, but many of you are, and you all deserve better than this. If winning is of any interest to the Front Office, then Gardy's a Goner. If he stays, then it shows that this is not about winning, it's about some secret agenda that we will never figure out.
  14. jtkoupal
    5 days ago, Kyle Gibson pitched the Twins passed the Tigers to tighten the gap to only 3 games. Since, the team has endured an ugly, gut-wrenching 5 game losing streak to fall to 6 games under .500, 6.5 games back in the central, and 5 games back in the Wild Card.
    What this losing streak showed, especially the 3 game sweep in Boston, was that the Twins are probably done after being relevant for the better part of the first half. With this drop in the standings means in the need to sell off some pieces, something that the Twins have been reluctant to do over the years.
    Among the names of guys that should be traded is Josh Willingham. Since returning to the lineup, Josh has played like the Josh Willingham of 2012, driving in runs in key situations and driving the ball out of the ballpark. This resurgence of Willingham has pumped some value into him. Barring a complete collapse at the plate, Willingham will be wanted by someone.
    Below are a list of teams that could have interest in the Twins' slugger and why:
     
    Baltimore Orioles: David Lough and Delmon Young have both seen time in Left Field this season. That position has been very unproductive for Baltimore, as Lough is hitting .182 and Young, while the batting average is very good, has only 3 home runs and 10 RBI in 35 games. Willingham would add a clutch bat with power at a position of desperate need for Baltimore.
     
    Oakland Athletics: This is not a terrible likely landing spot, as the A's have stability in LF, but it wouldn't hurt for them to have another bat in the lineup as a DH, a position where everyone plays here and there for Oakland.
     
    Texas Rangers: Texas has a chance to make a run, but I think that they could use a bat. They are set in the outfield with Choo, Martin, and Rios, but they don't have much of anything outside of their positional starters. With Fielder out for they year and Moreland on the shelf, they could use a thumper to play DH, something that they don't have. Guys like Donnie Murphy, Michael Choice, and Brad Snyder are not going to cut it, Willingham will be a nice offensive upgrade for Texas, especially in that ballpark.
     
    Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers don't have a crisis in left field, as Carl Crawford and Scott Van Slyke are both hitting in the .260's, but the addition of Willingham would give them a power upgrade and drive in more runs for a good price for the Dodgers. He would make their lineup much more formidable.
     
    Of course, I don't expect the Twins to get a harvest in return for Willingham, but the way I see it is that if he leaves in free agency, he goes for nothing. He has missed too much time to garner compensation as well.
  15. jtkoupal
    As every single user of Twins Daily is aware, the Twins are in a state of despair in nearly every facet baseball. Over the next several weeks, I will be posting steps that need to be taken in order to fix the Minnesota Twins. Had I started 3 weeks ago, rule number one would have obviously been starting pitching. Recently, however, Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes have both been inked to multi-year deals and another starter could be on the way as early as Thursday or Friday. With Nolasco, Hughes, Correia, and a possible 4th quality starter in the mix, the rotation appears to be solid if not strong in the near future.
     
    Anyway, time to get to the point. I would like to start my "Rules For Fixing the Minnesota Twins".
     
    Rule number 1 for fixing the Minnesota Twins is to keep Oswaldo Arica in the lineup consistently. There has been recent speculation on a possible trade involving Arcia because of the myriad of outfielders that the Twins have in the system currently. As far as I am concerned, any deal that involves Arcia is a mistake. The Twins need power in the lineup, a guy with as much raw power as Arcia is hard to find. While Arcia certainly has some plate discipline and pitch selection issues to work out, he showed some very advanced hitting skills for such a young kid last season.
     
    Arcia Analysis
     
     
    Positive:
    A. Abundant raw power
    B. Ability to drive the ball
    C. Young and full of potential
    D. Very good low-ball hitter
     
    Negative:
    A. Too many swings and misses (though the whole team is that way)
    B. Trouble with breaking pitches
    C. Impatient
    D. Can not hit high fastballs, only low balls
    E. Sucker for breaking pitches low in the zone that break out of the zone, much like Cuddyer was.
     
    Stay tuned, as I will have another rule within the next few days.
  16. jtkoupal

    Justin Morneau 2014

    By jtkoupal,

    Good afternoon, all. This is my first blog here at Twins Daily. Today, I would like to talk about our man Justin Morneau.
     
    I would like to hear some opinions, I'm sure there will be many.
     
    My questions are:
    Does Morneau return to Minnesota?
    What would you pay him if up to you?
    If not MN, where does Justin go?
    Is this team better without him?
     
    Please feel free to share your thoughts, I will listen to all opinions whether I agree with them or not.
  17. jtkoupal
    For the past 15 years, calling the Minnesota Twins middle infield a "revolving door" would be an understatement. However, the Twins currently possess a rising star at second base as well as a top prospect who will most likely be ready to compete in 2015.
     
    In the near future, the Twins are going to have to make a decision regarding the 2nd base position for the future. The question that Twins fans everywhere are asking is, "will it be Dozier or Rosario?" It will be an interesting decision that will be made. I will share my thoughts below.
     
    First off, the Twins front office must look at the potential of both. There are two ways of looking at this. One way is that you keep the one with more potential. The other way is to trade the one with more potential because he will bring back more in return.
     
    In my opinion, I think Dozier is the guy to keep. While Rosario has more upside with the bat, his defense is rather suspect and he has little power. Brian Dozier played like a Gold Glove caliber 2nd Baseman this year and showed plenty of power, especially after May 31. Eddie Rosario looks to have a lot of tools, however, Dozier is much better on defense and has much more power. Rosario is destined to be a lead off hitter, he is more powerful than Ben Revere, but he will almost definitely not hit 20 home runs like Dozier probably will. Rosario could garner more return, so I believe that he should be the trade candidate.
     
    Another option is to move Dozier back to shortstop and get rid of Florimon. I do not see it happening, but it sounds nice.
     
    No matter what, the front office will make a decision. Hopefully, they make a good one.
×
×
  • Create New...