Jim Crikket

brian, I'm not complaining specifically about either thing, though I would point out that I also "complained prematurely" last year at this time, when I (and many, many others) pointed out that the Twins needed desperately to improve their starting rotation. All Ryan did was re-sign Pavano and sign Marquis, while publicly stating that payroll wasn't an issue. I am complaining about the continued nonsense from the front office about payroll not being an issue. And I'm not being selective in the quotes. My article included, I believe, the entire group of quotes regarding payroll from MLB.com's press conference coverage. And in fact, those quotes are very representative of every quote about payroll that comes out of the FO. They are clearly intended to minimize expectations among the media and fan base. And yes, I'm complaining about that, but more specifically, I'm complaining that so many fans (and the mainstream media) just accept it without question because it's always been that way. If a lot of people complaining about it results in Terry Ryan saying it less often, I'm OK with that. Finally, as I've stated over and over, nobody is saying money BY ITSELF is the answer. But to say it isn't a big factor in determining what options the GM has to explore for improving this team is beyond foolish. It's a huge factor.

This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com. I’ve never been in favor of giving long-term contracts to pitchers. I thought the Mets would regret giving Johan Santana five years at the salary levels they paid him. I have never advocated that the Twins should get involved in a bidding war for a Cliff Lee or a Roy Halladay or any other pitcher that was obviously going to get 5+ years at a bazillion dollars per year from one of the mega-market teams. It just doesn’t make sense, does it? Pitchers are so fragile. It just seems like there’s a better than 50-50 chance that any given Major League starting pitcher is going to blow out an elbow, shoulder, knee or other appendage that is pretty important for a pitcher to be effective. With that being the case, it seems like any team signing a pitcher to a four or five year contract should almost assume that they’re going to be paying that pitcher NOT to pitch for them for at least one of those seasons. Not a lot a lot of teams can afford to pay 10, 15 or 20 million dollars in any given season for a pitcher that never takes the mound. Sure the Yankees can absorb that kind of nonproductive payroll and the Dodgers are certainly headed in to the same category. Even the Red Sox and Phillies can probably deal with that kind of hit from time to time. But a team run on a tight budget like the Twins just can’t afford to take that kind of risk. Right? No, they can’t… usually. But these are not usual times in Twinsville and, as hard to believe as it may seem on the surface, right now the Twins actually can afford to take that kind of risk. In fact, I’d argue they almost can’t afford not to do so. While it may be counter-intuitive for Twins fans who have been programmed by the Twins front office to believe spending any kind of serious money over a period of more than a couple of years, especially for a pitcher, would lead to the financial collapse of the entire Pohlad family, there’s an argument to be made that now is the time to throw caution to the wind and dive in to that free agent pitching market. And I’m just the person to make that argument. So am I arguing that the Twins should go all out to outbid the Dodgers and Angels for Zack Greinke’s services? No. I haven’t gone quite that mad (though I might argue that it’s not… quite… as absurd an idea as most would claim). I’m also not sure I’d roll the dice on Dan Haren’s iffy back for more than a two year guaranteed contract. But let’s talk seriously about Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson (and maybe even Joe Saunders) for a moment. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/AnibalSanchez1.jpg Anibal Sanchez (Photo: Leon Halip, Getty Images) The Twins Daily guys, in their “2013 Offseason Handbook,” estimate that Sanchez and Jackson should command multi-year deals of about $11 million per year. They project Sanchez to get four years and Jackson to get three. They project Saunders to get three years at $8 million per year. I’ll say right up front that I don’t believe the Twins can sign any of those three pitchers for those figures. It will take more. First, because with the early deals we’re seeing for Baker, Guthrie, Kuroda (and perhaps others I’m forgetting) it’s apparent that pitchers are getting bigger bucks than the authors of the Handbook (and most of the rest of us) expected teams to shell out. But more importantly, each of these pitchers are going to get offers from teams who did not lose 95 games in 2012 and, all things being equal, they’ll sign with a team that’s been having some level success recently. So if the Twins want any of these guys, they’ll need to make sure all things are not equal. The way they can do that is to offer a longer term contract than other teams are willing to offer. If other teams will offer three years, the Twins need to offer four. If others will offer four guaranteed years, the Twins need to offer five. And there are two big reasons why Terry Ryan should do exactly that. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EdwinJackson.jpg Edwin Jackson (Photo: Jeff Curry, US PRESSWIRE) The first is that the Twins really… really… need good starting pitching. They need it now. They’re also going to need it in 2014 and they’re still going to need it in 2015 and 2016. Maybe Kyle Gibson will develop in to a solid #3 starter… or even better. Maybe Scott Diamond will do likewise. Heck, maybe even BJ Hermsen will become a reliable member of the rotation during that timeframe. But who else in the Twins organization projects as a reliable member of the rotation by 2016? Maybe JO Berrios. Maybe. Even if you believe any attempt to try to compete for a postseason spot in 2013 and 2014 is fantasy, you have to admit that there is precious little evidence that the Twins will have even an average rotation in place by the time Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario are roaming Target Field on a daily basis. If you believe that, by 2015, these young studs are going to be ready to usher in the next era of winning Twins baseball, don’t you think they’re going to need some pitching just as badly as Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham do? Signing 29 year-olds Jackson and/or Sanchez to long-term contracts means they should still be well within their primes in 2015 and 2016. I know what you’re thinking, though. What if they get hurt? What if one (or both) of them can’t pitch in 2015 or 2016? How can the Twins afford to shell out $11-$22 million for pitchers that can’t pitch? They can’t afford that risk…. can they? I’m glad you asked. Yes… yes they can. And I’m not just saying that because the Pohlads can technically afford 10 times that much risk without breaking a sweat. Through a very unique set of circumstances, the Twins can actually afford the risk of having over $20 million sitting on the Disabled List all year long without even threatening to crash through their self-imposed “50% of revenue for payroll” limit. During 2013 and 2014, the risk is minimal anyway, right? Because it appears nobody thinks the Twins should even be trying to field a real Major League team for the next two seasons. If they’re hurt, so what? But if they’re healthy and effective, maybe… just maybe… the Twins could surprise some folks. But it’s when 2015 rolls around that things get interesting. Even if Denard Span, Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau aren’t traded before the end of 2014, none of them are likely to be around for Opening Day, 2015. Morneau’s contract expires after 2013 and both Span* and Willingham have deals that end after 2014. Given that information, how many of the Twins’ non-pitchers do you think will even be eligible for arbitration in 2015? *Technically, the Twins hold a 2015 option on Span for $9 million. If you think he’ll still be with the Twins at that point and that the Twins will exercise that option, that’s fine. I think it’s unlikely, especially given all the outfield talent in the pipeline. Maybe you think Trevor Plouffe and/or Eduardo Escobar will still be around, but I wouldn’t count on it. Maybe Ben Revere will be in his arbitration years… assuming some combination of Hicks, Benson, Arcia, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler haven’t made Ben’s presence unnecessary. If Revere, Escobar and Plouffe have poofed, it’s conceivable that the nine starting position players in the Twins 2015 lineup will be paid a total of $27 million (that’s $23 million for Joe Mauer and the Major League minimum of $500,000 for the remaining eight starters). It’s not unreasonable to assume that the four bench players will similarly be minimum wage earners. It’s possible that Glen Perkins will still be with the Twins in 2015. If so, his contract calls for him to make $3.75 million that season and the Twins hold a $4.5 million option for 2016. Every other remaining pitcher on the Twins current 40-man roster is either likely to have departed via free agency by then or will still be under team control (either pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible) in 2015. In all likelihood, much of the Twins bullpen will have been replaced with rookies by then. But just to err on the side of caution, let’s assume that the six members of the bullpen not named Perkins are averaging $2 million each. That would mean a total of $15.75 million devoted to the pen in 2015. Scott Diamond will be in his first arbitration year in 2015. Let’s go crazy and assume he’ll make $5 million because he’s been so awesome in 2013-14. If Kyle Gibson and either Liam Hendriks or BJ Hermsen are holding down two other rotation spots, that’s another million dollars for the two of them, combined. By my count, we now have 23 players that the Twins will be paying a grand total of… wait for it… $50.75 million. And that’s perhaps being quite generous. If the Twins are fortunate to have both Jackson and Sanchez under contract for $11 million per year, each, their total payroll in 2015 could still be less than $75 million. If one or both of those pitchers is injured, the Twins would still have $25 million with which to attempt to replace the injured pitcher(s) and still keep their payroll below their Opening Day 2012 level. And we haven’t even mentioned the roughly $25 million of additional national TV revenue that every team in Major League Baseball is scheduled to begin receiving in 2014. How realistic is this? I don’ t know. One would think (or at least hope) that the Twins wouldn’t rely 100% on “kids” in 2015, but when you look at Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Rosario, Sano, Buxton, Santana, Gibson, Vargas, Kepler, Berrios, Hermsen, Harrison, Polanco, Salcedo, Herrmann… and more… aren’t we realistically expecting those players to have arrived by sometime in 2015, even if not by Opening Day? Might the Twins sign a veteran utility infielder for a couple of million dollars? Sure. Maybe they even talk Jared Burton in to staying for 2-3 million a year. Maybe there are others. But the point is, by 2015 every player on the current roster making more than a million dollars a year except Joe Mauer and Glen Perkins is likely to be gone. Morneau, Willingham, Span, Doumit, Carroll, Blackburn. That’s something like $42 million of payroll coming off the books by 2015. I’m not sure there’s ever a good time to give expensive, long-term contracts to even one pitcher, much less more than one. But if there is, I would think it would be when (a) you desperately need good starting pitchers and expect that desperation to last several years, ( you’ve got a number of highly talented position players (yet almost no can’t-miss pitchers) within a couple of years of their planned MLB arrival dates, and © nearly half your current payroll will come off the books by the time those pitchers enter the third year of their new contracts. Coincidentally, those are the exact circumstances the Twins find themselves in today. - JC

This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com. I’ve never been in favor of giving long-term contracts to pitchers. I thought the Mets would regret giving Johan Santana five years at the salary levels they paid him. I have never advocated that the Twins should get involved in a bidding war for a Cliff Lee or a Roy Halladay or any other pitcher that was obviously going to get 5+ years at a bazillion dollars per year from one of the mega-market teams. It just doesn’t make sense, does it? Pitchers are so fragile. It just seems like there’s a better than 50-50 chance that any given Major League starting pitcher is going to blow out an elbow, shoulder, knee or other appendage that is pretty important for a pitcher to be effective. With that being the case, it seems like any team signing a pitcher to a four or five year contract should almost assume that they’re going to be paying that pitcher NOT to pitch for them for at least one of those seasons. Not a lot a lot of teams can afford to pay 10, 15 or 20 million dollars in any given season for a pitcher that never takes the mound. Sure the Yankees can absorb that kind of nonproductive payroll and the Dodgers are certainly headed in to the same category. Even the Red Sox and Phillies can probably deal with that kind of hit from time to time. But a team run on a tight budget like the Twins just can’t afford to take that kind of risk. Right? No, they can’t… usually. But these are not usual times in Twinsville and, as hard to believe as it may seem on the surface, right now the Twins actually can afford to take that kind of risk. In fact, I’d argue they almost can’t afford not to do so. While it may be counter-intuitive for Twins fans who have been programmed by the Twins front office to believe spending any kind of serious money over a period of more than a couple of years, especially for a pitcher, would lead to the financial collapse of the entire Pohlad family, there’s an argument to be made that now is the time to throw caution to the wind and dive in to that free agent pitching market. And I’m just the person to make that argument. So am I arguing that the Twins should go all out to outbid the Dodgers and Angels for Zack Greinke’s services? No. I haven’t gone quite that mad (though I might argue that it’s not… quite… as absurd an idea as most would claim). I’m also not sure I’d roll the dice on Dan Haren’s iffy back for more than a two year guaranteed contract. But let’s talk seriously about Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson (and maybe even Joe Saunders) for a moment. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/AnibalSanchez1.jpg Anibal Sanchez (Photo: Leon Halip, Getty Images) The Twins Daily guys, in their “2013 Offseason Handbook,” estimate that Sanchez and Jackson should command multi-year deals of about $11 million per year. They project Sanchez to get four years and Jackson to get three. They project Saunders to get three years at $8 million per year. I’ll say right up front that I don’t believe the Twins can sign any of those three pitchers for those figures. It will take more. First, because with the early deals we’re seeing for Baker, Guthrie, Kuroda (and perhaps others I’m forgetting) it’s apparent that pitchers are getting bigger bucks than the authors of the Handbook (and most of the rest of us) expected teams to shell out. But more importantly, each of these pitchers are going to get offers from teams who did not lose 95 games in 2012 and, all things being equal, they’ll sign with a team that’s been having some level success recently. So if the Twins want any of these guys, they’ll need to make sure all things are not equal. The way they can do that is to offer a longer term contract than other teams are willing to offer. If other teams will offer three years, the Twins need to offer four. If others will offer four guaranteed years, the Twins need to offer five. And there are two big reasons why Terry Ryan should do exactly that. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EdwinJackson.jpg Edwin Jackson (Photo: Jeff Curry, US PRESSWIRE) The first is that the Twins really… really… need good starting pitching. They need it now. They’re also going to need it in 2014 and they’re still going to need it in 2015 and 2016. Maybe Kyle Gibson will develop in to a solid #3 starter… or even better. Maybe Scott Diamond will do likewise. Heck, maybe even BJ Hermsen will become a reliable member of the rotation during that timeframe. But who else in the Twins organization projects as a reliable member of the rotation by 2016? Maybe JO Berrios. Maybe. Even if you believe any attempt to try to compete for a postseason spot in 2013 and 2014 is fantasy, you have to admit that there is precious little evidence that the Twins will have even an average rotation in place by the time Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario are roaming Target Field on a daily basis. If you believe that, by 2015, these young studs are going to be ready to usher in the next era of winning Twins baseball, don’t you think they’re going to need some pitching just as badly as Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham do? Signing 29 year-olds Jackson and/or Sanchez to long-term contracts means they should still be well within their primes in 2015 and 2016. I know what you’re thinking, though. What if they get hurt? What if one (or both) of them can’t pitch in 2015 or 2016? How can the Twins afford to shell out $11-$22 million for pitchers that can’t pitch? They can’t afford that risk…. can they? I’m glad you asked. Yes… yes they can. And I’m not just saying that because the Pohlads can technically afford 10 times that much risk without breaking a sweat. Through a very unique set of circumstances, the Twins can actually afford the risk of having over $20 million sitting on the Disabled List all year long without even threatening to crash through their self-imposed “50% of revenue for payroll” limit. During 2013 and 2014, the risk is minimal anyway, right? Because it appears nobody thinks the Twins should even be trying to field a real Major League team for the next two seasons. If they’re hurt, so what? But if they’re healthy and effective, maybe… just maybe… the Twins could surprise some folks. But it’s when 2015 rolls around that things get interesting. Even if Denard Span, Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau aren’t traded before the end of 2014, none of them are likely to be around for Opening Day, 2015. Morneau’s contract expires after 2013 and both Span* and Willingham have deals that end after 2014. Given that information, how many of the Twins’ non-pitchers do you think will even be eligible for arbitration in 2015? *Technically, the Twins hold a 2015 option on Span for $9 million. If you think he’ll still be with the Twins at that point and that the Twins will exercise that option, that’s fine. I think it’s unlikely, especially given all the outfield talent in the pipeline. Maybe you think Trevor Plouffe and/or Eduardo Escobar will still be around, but I wouldn’t count on it. Maybe Ben Revere will be in his arbitration years… assuming some combination of Hicks, Benson, Arcia, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler haven’t made Ben’s presence unnecessary. If Revere, Escobar and Plouffe have poofed, it’s conceivable that the nine starting position players in the Twins 2015 lineup will be paid a total of $27 million (that’s $23 million for Joe Mauer and the Major League minimum of $500,000 for the remaining eight starters). It’s not unreasonable to assume that the four bench players will similarly be minimum wage earners. It’s possible that Glen Perkins will still be with the Twins in 2015. If so, his contract calls for him to make $3.75 million that season and the Twins hold a $4.5 million option for 2016. Every other remaining pitcher on the Twins current 40-man roster is either likely to have departed via free agency by then or will still be under team control (either pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible) in 2015. In all likelihood, much of the Twins bullpen will have been replaced with rookies by then. But just to err on the side of caution, let’s assume that the six members of the bullpen not named Perkins are averaging $2 million each. That would mean a total of $15.75 million devoted to the pen in 2015. Scott Diamond will be in his first arbitration year in 2015. Let’s go crazy and assume he’ll make $5 million because he’s been so awesome in 2013-14. If Kyle Gibson and either Liam Hendriks or BJ Hermsen are holding down two other rotation spots, that’s another million dollars for the two of them, combined. By my count, we now have 23 players that the Twins will be paying a grand total of… wait for it… $50.75 million. And that’s perhaps being quite generous. If the Twins are fortunate to have both Jackson and Sanchez under contract for $11 million per year, each, their total payroll in 2015 could still be less than $75 million. If one or both of those pitchers is injured, the Twins would still have $25 million with which to attempt to replace the injured pitcher(s) and still keep their payroll below their Opening Day 2012 level. And we haven’t even mentioned the roughly $25 million of additional national TV revenue that every team in Major League Baseball is scheduled to begin receiving in 2014. How realistic is this? I don’ t know. One would think (or at least hope) that the Twins wouldn’t rely 100% on “kids” in 2015, but when you look at Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Rosario, Sano, Buxton, Santana, Gibson, Vargas, Kepler, Berrios, Hermsen, Harrison, Polanco, Salcedo, Herrmann… and more… aren’t we realistically expecting those players to have arrived by sometime in 2015, even if not by Opening Day? Might the Twins sign a veteran utility infielder for a couple of million dollars? Sure. Maybe they even talk Jared Burton in to staying for 2-3 million a year. Maybe there are others. But the point is, by 2015 every player on the current roster making more than a million dollars a year except Joe Mauer and Glen Perkins is likely to be gone. Morneau, Willingham, Span, Doumit, Carroll, Blackburn. That’s something like $42 million of payroll coming off the books by 2015. I’m not sure there’s ever a good time to give expensive, long-term contracts to even one pitcher, much less more than one. But if there is, I would think it would be when (a) you desperately need good starting pitchers and expect that desperation to last several years, ( you’ve got a number of highly talented position players (yet almost no can’t-miss pitchers) within a couple of years of their planned MLB arrival dates, and © nearly half your current payroll will come off the books by the time those pitchers enter the third year of their new contracts. Coincidentally, those are the exact circumstances the Twins find themselves in today. - JC

It would certainly hint that adding a 41 year old pitcher as the cornerstone addition to your roster is not conducive to sustaining winning. And, as I said, it's not a perfect analogy, but I was asked to provide an example of a team that had sucked for a couple of years, spent some money in free agency and didn't have it turn in to a disaster. That Tiger team came to mind and when I looked it up, I felt it qualified as one example. Nobody is saying money can solve anything if it's not spent wisely. But having money to spend does expand a GM's options. It just does.

I suspect even one example won't change your mind, but the one that immediately lept to my mind was the 2006 Detroit Tigers. I do have a day job (despite what it may seem like, given how much time I spend here during the day some days), so I didn't have time to actually check my memory until now. The Tigers lost more than 90 games FIVE years in a row, from 2001 through 2005 (and more than 100 in two of those seasons). From 2001 through 2004, their payroll ran between $47 mil and $55 mil every year. In 2005, it jumped from $47 mil up to $69 mil... and it netted them exactly one extra win. But in 2006, they shelled out an additional $13 million, going up to $82 mil in payroll, largely on the basis of signing two pitchers, starter Kenny Rogers ($8 mil) and closer Todd Jones ($5.8 mil). The only other significant addition in 2006 was a rookie pitcher named Verlander. They also called up Curtis Granderson, but he was hardly a standout that year (as his 98 OPS+ will attest). So yes, they got a boost from a rising young ace, but there's no way that he alone would have accounted for the Tigers going from losing 91 games in 2005 to winning 95 games and a spot in the World Series in 2006. Rogers more than doubled his salary when he signed with Detroit. Was he worth it or did they overpay for a 41 year old innings-eater? Jones certainly wasn't perfect as a closer, so did they overpay for a 38 year old reliever near the end of his career? I don't know... but I do know they increased their payroll by nearly 20% and ended a five year run of futility by going to the World Series. And in today's dollars, you should probably just about double those player's salaries. It would be comparable to the Twins signing two pitchers for about $15 million and $10 million... both got multi-year deals, too, I believe. Is this a perfect analogy for today's Twins? Of course not. But you'll never find perfect matches for any example. That said, I think it does demonstrate that making smart free agent signings, even if it means you spend a bit more than you're accustomed to, in combination with development of young players and getting a bit of luck, can result in something quite a bit better than "a disaster."

I agree that perhaps the point I was trying to make with the original post has been clouded through the comment thread, even if I don't 100% agree with the rest of your comment. To get back to my original point, take another look at this quote from Terry Ryan: “I think we can quit fooling ourselves that money is the answer,” Ryan said. “We’re going to have to make good decisions to create a pitching staff that’s going to give us a chance.” While I absolutely agree that making good decisions is critical and that having money will not assure that all of your decisions are good ones, the first part of the quote is what bothers me. You simply can not minimize the fact that money IS a big part of the answer. Having it available means you have more options from which to choose as you ponder those "good decisions" than if you don't have it available. As for the "quit fooling ourselves" part, I suspect his bosses would have had a problem with him saying such a thing when they were lobbying for a new stadium a few years back. At that time, ownership was indeed contending that their existing stadium situation put them at a financial disadvantage... making money certainly a big part of "the answer." So were the Twins fooling themselves then? Or were they fooling their fans... and local taxpayers?

I took a few pictures of Sano and Kepler both during their first Spring Training after being signed. Maybe this spring I'll dig them out and post them side by side with current pictures, but having seen both guys every spring and Sano during this past season, there's no doubt both have "grown up" since they were 16. Sano was always big, but Kepler I remember thinking sure looked like a tall batboy that first spring, more so than a player. I'd have no trouble at all believing he's gone from 180# up to 210# or more since that first spring.

I see... so since the Twins ponied up $23 mil a year for Mauer, the front office is off the hook and any criticism is unwarranted because his salary alone moves them in to the mid-range of MLB payrolls. I guess none of us need to bother even mentioning payroll throughout the remainder of Mauer's contract because that alone proves the Pohlads are willing to spend enough money to field a quality product, regardless of results on the field.

This seems like a pretty ridiculous statement to me. Spending money and acquiring good players will certainly help things in 2013. Better players make the team better. Whether spending money will be enough to get them back into contention is another story, but in my view they're pretty close with two of the three units (I disagree the notion that this team has a "crap bullpen"). To be clear, the full-out rebuild that you recommend requires the Twins to: A) Draft and develop quality pitching, something they haven't done recently. Identify quality pitching prospects to acquire, something they haven't done recently. C) Keep a quality offensive core intact, while Joe Mauer begins to age past his prime. I think you're underestimating the challenges and risks involved with your plan. The Twins could easily tread water for years in the name of rebuilding and find themselves in the same spot three seasons down the line, only their best player will be 33 instead of 30. I certainly don't think the Twins should be making moves that are completely aimed at short-term contention, but signing free agents pitchers to three-year deals when you've got almost nothing in the pipeline is hardly irresponsible. Well said, Nick, but I'd add another item to the list of things the Twins would have to do in order to go the "full re-build" path: D) Accept that attendance levels are likely to fall to the Metrodome levels by the time today's future stars are productive Major Leaguers. There's absolutely no reason why this has to be an "either/or" situation. Fans should not just sit back and accept the Twins' contention that they are still a small-market team that can only put a competitive product on the field when a group of good home-grown talent cycles through the organization. Spending money on pitching now will put a competitive team on the field in 2013, keeping fans in the seats, and you still have those current 20-year-olds coming up through the organization. Nobody is suggesting that you trade away every member of your "top 10 prospect list." But the Twins are now a solid mid-market franchise with no shortage of revenue streams (which stand to see a significant bounce in 2014). Fans who accept the "we can only be good every few years" stuff are just playing in to the front office's hands.

Jeremy Guthrie just got $25 million over 3 years from the Royals. Getting pitching is going to be expensive, folks. It will take money. Obviously, nobody is knocking down Terry Ryan's door anxious to send good pitching to Minnesota in return for Denard Span.

No, they couldn't. That kind of thinking is how decent teams become the late-1990s Orioles and Dodgers. There's a time when opening up the checkbook makes good sense (the Tigers now, the Twins three years ago), and a time when it doesn't (the Twins now, the Tigers a decade ago). There's no amount of money they could throw at this to help things in 2013. Bill, that's exactly the kind of brainwashing I was referring to. "No amount of money" could help in 2013? I'm sorry, but I don't believe that, even if that is what the Twins want you to believe. If they can convince fans that no amount of money would help, they're off the hook... they don't have to spend ANY money. While Jim H is correct in that it takes wise decisions to build a contender and it wouldn't hurt to have a little luck, having additional money to work with DOES matter and if used wisely by Terry Ryan, this team could see major improvements in 2013. The Twins, as currently constituted, can score runs. They need better defense in the middle infield, but most of all they need pitching. There's no shortage of pitchers available both via trade and free agency (despite Ryan's contention that it's a 'thin' market). Investing in that pitching would make for a much better product on the field and would stem the dropping attendance, keeping revenues at higher levels necessary to maintain an acceptable level of competitiveness.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1187-Money-Matters

I think you might have to consider that Willingham signed his deal with the Twins probably thinking that 2011 was an aberation and that the team he was joining would be competitive. If that's the case, there's every possibility that he would welcome a trade to a team that has a better chance of contending. So even though he doesn't have a no-trade clause, if the Twins truly are concerned about the "message" it would send, they could simply ask Willingham if he'd object to a trade. I do think fans are considerably overestimating what a slowfooted OF/DH would fetch in a trade, even one who had such a solid year at the plate. Because of that, and because the Twins would immediately find themselves with yet another gaping hole (RH power hitter) in the middle of their lineup, I don't think Willingham gets traded this offseason. If he gets off to a decent start in 2013, he may bring a better return at the trading deadline when trading him to a contender may even be considered doing right by him.

Unless Terry Ryan has several signings or trades in the works that he expects to finalize by the 6th (yeah, I know... but a fan can dream, right?), I think Hicks, Gibson, Hermsen and Tonkin will be added and possibly Santana, as well. I know that a couple of those guys have almost no chance of sticking on another team's MLB roster in 2013, but do we think the Twins really want to take a chance of Hermsen or Tonkin getting drafted, spending all of Spring Training with another team, and then maybe being returned to the Twins? Teams try to keep their Rule 5 picks by stashing them on the DL or making some kind of trade all the time. I just don't see the Twins taking that chance on these guys if it's not necessary. That would still leave room for several additions by trade or free agency and there are a couple other guys on the roster that they likely wouldn't worry too much about dropping later if they need the space.

This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com. I’m constantly struck by how so many otherwise intelligent people suddenly sound like idiots when discussing issues related to money. A number of these people are certainly not idiots… they’re accomplished business owners and/or people who have achieved considerable success at running businesses. So if they aren’t as stupid as the words they’re saying makes them sound, one can only assume that they think the people hearing/reading their words are stupid enough to believe what they’re saying. Yes, I’m referring primarily to the Twins front office. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/PohladRyanStPeter.jpg Owner Jim Pohlad, GM Terry Ryan and President Dave St. Peter It was over a month ago that the Twins held a press conference and made owner Jim Pohlad, President Dave St. Peter and General Manager Terry Ryan available to the mainstream media. Predictably, the topic of the team’s potential 2013 payroll came up. Also predictably, the Twins brass was non-committal. Here’s an excerpt from the story written at the time by MLB.com’s Twins beat reporter Rhett Bollinger (click here for the link): Pohlad said that payroll will not be a concern this offseason, but wouldn’t give a firm number on what that will be. The Twins entered the 2012 season with a payroll right around $100 million. “We’ve never told anybody they have to spend ‘X’ dollars or that they can’t spend whatever they are recommending,” Pohlad said. “So it could go up, it could go down. It’s whatever Terry tells us. We’ve talked about spending in that 50 percent of revenue, but it doesn’t mean Terry will spend that.” Ryan said that the payroll situation will be fluid and that it should not hinder him from acquiring the starting pitching the club needs to compete next season. “I think we can quit fooling ourselves that money is the answer,” Ryan said. “We’re going to have to make good decisions to create a pitching staff that’s going to give us a chance.” Well, I’m glad they put that question to rest, aren’t you? I’m so glad to know that money doesn’t matter. We don’t know whether the Twins could have made a deal with the Marlins for the same package of players that they dealt to Toronto last week. There’s absolutely no doubt, however, that the addition of Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes would have gone a long way toward addressing the biggest holes in the Twins lineup and the level of players the Jays sent back to Miami certainly could have been made available by the Twins. So why wasn’t it the Twins that made the deal? I don’t know. But it’s such a friggin relief to know that whatever the reason was, it wasn’t money! The Twins also lost Scott Baker to the Cubs last week. Baker got a good deal. $5.5 million guaranteed with another $1.5 million in incentives on a straight one year deal. According to the Star Tribune’s beat reporter, Joe Christensen, the Twins were very interested in keeping Baker, but wanted an option year for 2014, which Baker wouldn’t agree to. Again, it makes me feel so much better to know that the reason Baker won’t be wearing a Twins uniform in 2013 had nothing whatsoever to do with money. Here’s something I’ve learned from working in Corporate America for the past 30+ years: Whenever someone in senior management tells you, “It’s not about the money,” that means that money is exactly what it’s all about. As Twins fans, we’ve become programmed to just accept the “company line.” We’ve been hearing it since the days of Calvin Griffith and on through the Pohlad era at the Metrodome. Sure, there were hints that having a new stadium and the revenues it would generate might change things, but by and large, the fan base has continued to just accept the, “we’ll spend 50% of revenue on payroll,” line of crap that has always come out of the Twins’ offices. It has become second nature, to the point where Twins fans seem to almost think that’s how every Major League team does business and we act surprised when other teams behave differently. The Tigers went to the World Series, but clearly needed to improve at a corner outfield position. They looked for the best option on the market, moved quickly and signed Torii Hunter to a deal that seemed like it was a little excessive, given his age. How can they do that? Won’t that mean their payroll might exceed half of their revenues? Ah, but they’ve got an old owner who wants to win a World Series before he dies, so that’s why they can do what the Twins won’t, right? The Blue Jays saw themselves needing much the same kind of help that the Twins need. They agreed to take on more years of higher salaries than they might have really been comfortable with, but they made the deal because they want to compete. But that’s ridiculous, right? Boy, they’ll sure regret having Buehrle and Reyes on the payroll toward the back end of those contracts because in a couple of years, their payroll might exceed half their revenues! Ah, but they’re owned by a giant Communications conglomerate and that’s why they aren’t limited as to payroll. I’ve got a news flash, folks. Every team starts the offseason with a self-examination that identifies what their biggest needs are. The next step for most teams that are committed to being competitive is to identify the best options available via free agency or trades to meet the identified needs. Unless you’re the Rays (who have a whole bunch of financial issues unrelated to the quality of their team), your front office knows that the quality of the product on the field drives revenue. But if you’re a Twins fan, you’ve been conditioned not to ask who would best fill the team’s needs, but who would fit in to the Twins’ designated payroll limit. That’s because the Twins have historically seemed oblivious to the basic business tenet that product quality drives revenues. They’ve brainwashed fans in to believing that the only reasonable way to operate a business is by subscribing to the theory that a drop in revenues last year means they must cut payroll next year. It’s time for fans to become deprogrammed from that mindset and let the Twins know that their fan base is not as stupid as the club has treated them as being. Maybe I’m being premature with this criticism. After all, it’s still early in the offseason and the Winter Meetings are still a couple of weeks away. Terry Ryan may actually sign honest-to-goodness legitimate starting pitchers to fill the Twins’ needs in that area, regardless of the cost. He may make a trade or two that will improve the middle infield, even if it means making his bosses nervous. Maybe he’ll prove that his words about payroll not hindering him from doing his job were more than just more of the same BS we’ve heard for the past decade. But until the Twins start ACTING like money doesn’t matter, they should stop saying it. It just makes them look like fools… or like they think that’s what we are. - JC

This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com. I’m constantly struck by how so many otherwise intelligent people suddenly sound like idiots when discussing issues related to money. A number of these people are certainly not idiots… they’re accomplished business owners and/or people who have achieved considerable success at running businesses. So if they aren’t as stupid as the words they’re saying makes them sound, one can only assume that they think the people hearing/reading their words are stupid enough to believe what they’re saying. Yes, I’m referring primarily to the Twins front office. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/PohladRyanStPeter.jpg Owner Jim Pohlad, GM Terry Ryan and President Dave St. Peter It was over a month ago that the Twins held a press conference and made owner Jim Pohlad, President Dave St. Peter and General Manager Terry Ryan available to the mainstream media. Predictably, the topic of the team’s potential 2013 payroll came up. Also predictably, the Twins brass was non-committal. Here’s an excerpt from the story written at the time by MLB.com’s Twins beat reporter Rhett Bollinger (click here for the link): Pohlad said that payroll will not be a concern this offseason, but wouldn’t give a firm number on what that will be. The Twins entered the 2012 season with a payroll right around $100 million. “We’ve never told anybody they have to spend ‘X’ dollars or that they can’t spend whatever they are recommending,” Pohlad said. “So it could go up, it could go down. It’s whatever Terry tells us. We’ve talked about spending in that 50 percent of revenue, but it doesn’t mean Terry will spend that.” Ryan said that the payroll situation will be fluid and that it should not hinder him from acquiring the starting pitching the club needs to compete next season. “I think we can quit fooling ourselves that money is the answer,” Ryan said. “We’re going to have to make good decisions to create a pitching staff that’s going to give us a chance.” Well, I’m glad they put that question to rest, aren’t you? I’m so glad to know that money doesn’t matter. We don’t know whether the Twins could have made a deal with the Marlins for the same package of players that they dealt to Toronto last week. There’s absolutely no doubt, however, that the addition of Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes would have gone a long way toward addressing the biggest holes in the Twins lineup and the level of players the Jays sent back to Miami certainly could have been made available by the Twins. So why wasn’t it the Twins that made the deal? I don’t know. But it’s such a friggin relief to know that whatever the reason was, it wasn’t money! The Twins also lost Scott Baker to the Cubs last week. Baker got a good deal. $5.5 million guaranteed with another $1.5 million in incentives on a straight one year deal. According to the Star Tribune’s beat reporter, Joe Christensen, the Twins were very interested in keeping Baker, but wanted an option year for 2014, which Baker wouldn’t agree to. Again, it makes me feel so much better to know that the reason Baker won’t be wearing a Twins uniform in 2013 had nothing whatsoever to do with money. Here’s something I’ve learned from working in Corporate America for the past 30+ years: Whenever someone in senior management tells you, “It’s not about the money,” that means that money is exactly what it’s all about. As Twins fans, we’ve become programmed to just accept the “company line.” We’ve been hearing it since the days of Calvin Griffith and on through the Pohlad era at the Metrodome. Sure, there were hints that having a new stadium and the revenues it would generate might change things, but by and large, the fan base has continued to just accept the, “we’ll spend 50% of revenue on payroll,” line of crap that has always come out of the Twins’ offices. It has become second nature, to the point where Twins fans seem to almost think that’s how every Major League team does business and we act surprised when other teams behave differently. The Tigers went to the World Series, but clearly needed to improve at a corner outfield position. They looked for the best option on the market, moved quickly and signed Torii Hunter to a deal that seemed like it was a little excessive, given his age. How can they do that? Won’t that mean their payroll might exceed half of their revenues? Ah, but they’ve got an old owner who wants to win a World Series before he dies, so that’s why they can do what the Twins won’t, right? The Blue Jays saw themselves needing much the same kind of help that the Twins need. They agreed to take on more years of higher salaries than they might have really been comfortable with, but they made the deal because they want to compete. But that’s ridiculous, right? Boy, they’ll sure regret having Buehrle and Reyes on the payroll toward the back end of those contracts because in a couple of years, their payroll might exceed half their revenues! Ah, but they’re owned by a giant Communications conglomerate and that’s why they aren’t limited as to payroll. I’ve got a news flash, folks. Every team starts the offseason with a self-examination that identifies what their biggest needs are. The next step for most teams that are committed to being competitive is to identify the best options available via free agency or trades to meet the identified needs. Unless you’re the Rays (who have a whole bunch of financial issues unrelated to the quality of their team), your front office knows that the quality of the product on the field drives revenue. But if you’re a Twins fan, you’ve been conditioned not to ask who would best fill the team’s needs, but who would fit in to the Twins’ designated payroll limit. That’s because the Twins have historically seemed oblivious to the basic business tenet that product quality drives revenues. They’ve brainwashed fans in to believing that the only reasonable way to operate a business is by subscribing to the theory that a drop in revenues last year means they must cut payroll next year. It’s time for fans to become deprogrammed from that mindset and let the Twins know that their fan base is not as stupid as the club has treated them as being. Maybe I’m being premature with this criticism. After all, it’s still early in the offseason and the Winter Meetings are still a couple of weeks away. Terry Ryan may actually sign honest-to-goodness legitimate starting pitchers to fill the Twins’ needs in that area, regardless of the cost. He may make a trade or two that will improve the middle infield, even if it means making his bosses nervous. Maybe he’ll prove that his words about payroll not hindering him from doing his job were more than just more of the same BS we’ve heard for the past decade. But until the Twins start ACTING like money doesn’t matter, they should stop saying it. It just makes them look like fools… or like they think that’s what we are. - JC

Glad to hear James has re-signed with the Twins! He had enough time in to be a minor league free agent, but has a new contract with the Twins, complete with his first invite to Major League Spring Training with the big club!

Seth, I don't think any of us would expect the Twins to give fans an exact figure. But even last year, Ryan publicly stated a range shortly after he took over for Smith. I remember it because it was well below what all of us had assumed it would be when we did our various "blueprints." The way Ryan talks now gives no reason for any of us to expect they plan to open the checkbook at all.

I think you're right, brian. Think about what kind of effect this could have across the state where the Rays are trying to figure out how to get a new ballpark. Now, they have a whole lot of very different political issues to wade through and, to their credit, the Rays have done a helluva job of building their organization in to a perenial contender the right way. But it's still Florida and the bottom line is that, so far, no approach has been found to generate significant attendance for Major League Baseball in that state. Having winning teams in St Pete hasn't done it and building a new stadium in Miami hasn't done it. Loria owed it to Miami residents/fans and to his fellow owners to make a more concerted effort for at least 2-3 years after the stadium opened. If I owned the Rays (or the A's), I'd be wanting to run Loria right out of baseball.

Not sure how I missed Cody's list, though I admit that I not only wasn't writing while I was fighting off a bug, but I wasn't reading much either. I'll stick with Buxton, though, even if I've got good company with the pick. And I agree with Pseudo, it does bode well when all of those guys arrive at the same time. Now I just have to live long enough to see it.

As many as five of BP's Top 10 should spend some time in Cedar Rapids with the Kernels in 2013 (Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Harrison, Polanco). As a Kernels fan, that's kind of exciting and a refreshing change from the talent levels we've been getting from the Angels organization the past couple of seasons. On the other hand, as a Twins fan, it demonstrates just how far many of the Twins best prospects are from reaching Target Field, especially considering that two more, Sano and Rosario, are likely to also be starting the season at A+ Ft. Myers.

I've been playing around with preparing my own Top 10 list for the blog and had already decided I was going to push Buxton to the top above Sano primarily because I think he's a better all-around player and defense counts for something with me. Here I thought I was going to be "original" and it turns out I'll just be "following" BP's lead. Dang!

I thought I read somewhere that they were looking at about 150 innings out of him, but I don't remember where that came from. There's not a lot of point in trying to push him much higher than that. I just would hope they'd be smarter about how the ration out his limited innings than the Nationals were with their guy this year. I also agree with Winston that enthusiasm should be tempered until we see results on a Big League field. I've had big hopes for Liam Hendriks, too, and those have certainly not yet been realized (though I haven't totally given up on him yet).

I think 349 posts from Rosterman are not enough. Damn fine post. Refreshing perspective. First... "fielding a $100 million team and coming in last place" is exactly what the Marlins did. Their opening day payroll last season was in excess of $100 million. Second, if Terry Ryan ends up trading Willingham, Span and Morneau this offseason (not exactly a completely unthinkable possibility), won't he be doing essentially exactly what the Marlins have done? I can only imagine, however, that if he gets no more in return than what the Marlins were able to get from Toronto, he'll be skewered in Twinsville. Now imagine that he had done this just one season after Target Field opened up. It's bad enough to do it after three years in a new ballpark, but the gaudy paint in Miami has barely dried on their stadium.