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Jim Crikket

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  1. Jim Crikket
    Rod Carew spent 12 seasons in a Minnesota Twins uniform. He was the American League Rookie of the Year in 1967 and was lured away by the sunshine to southern California to play for the Angels following the 1978 season. At least the Twins managed to get some talent in return for Carew (Ken Landreaux, Dave Engle, Paul Hartzell, Brad Havens), rather than lose him to free agency when Carew essentially forced Twins owner Calvin Griffith in to a trade.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/CarewStatue.jpg
    The Rod Carew bronze statue outside Target Field
     
    The 12 seasons Carew spent in Minnesota were some of the best… and worst… years I’ve gone through as a Twins fan. I believe that there are lessons to be learned from Carew’s era, for the Twins ownership and its fans, though I suspect neither group is inclined to heed them… at least not consciously.
     
    I turned five years old near the middle of the Twins’ first season in Minnesota. We made one or two annual trips up to see the Twins play in those days (usually just one… the trip up from Albert Lea was not as quick and easy before I-35), but we watched games on TV all summer long. They were road games, mostly. Home games were seldom televised, so as not to inhibit fans from buying tickets, I suppose. But I had my transistor radio to take to bed with me to listen to the games I couldn’t watch.
     
    So yes, I’ve been a fan through three World Series and even more Division Series. But the most exciting SEASON of Twins baseball in my memory was a year the Twins didn’t even play postseason baseball. That was Rod Carew’s rookie year, 1967.
     
    Those were exciting times to be a Twins fan. As we all know, the Twins had been to the World Series in 1965, where they lost to the Koufax/Drysdale led Dodgers. But 1966 was a pretty good year, too. The Twins finished runner-up to the Orioles for the American League pennant (yes, kids, there was a time when there were no divisions in Major League Baseball) and there was no reason for my fellow pre-teen friends and I to think the Twins wouldn’t be right in the thick of things in 1967, too. And they were. But nobody could have predicted just how “thick” that race would be.
     
    The Twins started out poorly and Griffith fired manager Sam Mele. That came as a shock to a kid like me. How could you fire a great manager like Mele? He took us to the World Series! But under Cal Ermer, the Twins woke up a bit and by the All-Star break were right back in the race. The White Sox held the lead, but the Tigers and Twins were right up there, too. The Angels and Red Sox were further back, but both were above .500.
     
    About a month later, the Twins swept a home series against the White Sox and moved in to first place. To give you an idea how tight the race had become, Boston sat in 5th place, just 2.5 games behind the Twins, with the White Sox, Tigers and Angels sandwiched between them. The Angels soon slumped badly and were out of the race by the end of August, but through the rest of the season, the Twins were never more than two games out of first place.
     
    Then again, the Tigers and both Red & White Sox, weren’t falling any further behind, either. In fact, on the morning of September 7, all four teams were in a virtual tie for first place. On September 15, the Twins, Tigers and Red Sox were tied, with Chicago just 1.5 games back. The White Sox returned the home sweep favor on the Twins September 15-17 and suddenly the Twins were dropped in to a tie with Chicago for 3rd place… one game behind the Tigers. One win over the A’s (that would be the Kansas City A’s, of course) later and the Twins were back in to a 3-way tie for the lead on September 18.
     
    I wish I could find a way to express just how crazy and exciting this was to an 11 year-old Twins fan. It was stuff like this that I believe made that kid a life-long Twins fan.
     
    From that point, September 18, through the rest of the month of September, the Twins were never out of first place. It seemed like they were almost always tied with someone, but every morning when we looked at the standings, the Twins had that little “-” next to them indicating they were no “games behind” anyone in the American League.
     
    The White Sox found themselves in 4th place, two games behind the Twins with two games left, but effectively eliminated from the race because the Twins and Red Sox would finish the season with a two-game series and both teams were ahead of Chicago. Boston and Detrot each were one game behind the Twins with two games to play, but due to some earlier rainouts, the Tigers had played two games fewer than the Twins and Red Sox, so they were staring at Saturday and Sunday home doubleheaders against what was still a pretty decent Angels team.
     
    All the Twins needed was a split of those final two games in Boston, along with one Angels win out of their four games with Detroit, and my Twins were headed to the World Series against Bob Gibson and the Cardinals!
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Kaat_Yaz_1967.jpg
    Twins pitcher Jim Kaat faces Carl Yastrzemski on September 30, 1967
     
    But the Twins lost on Saturday 6-4, while the Tigers swept their twinbill with the Angels and that sent the Red Sox and Twins in to the final day of the season tied for first place, a half-game ahead of Detroit. The Angels helped out the Twins by gaining a split of their Sunday doubleheader with the Tigers, so all the Twins had to do was beat Boston.
     
    Of course, they didn’t… they lost 5-3… and the Red Sox went on to lose a seven-game World Series to the Cardinals, which I could barely watch. I was heartbroken. But it was still the most exciting Twins SEASON of my life and I had every reason then to expect my Twins to be just as good and just as exciting to watch the next year… and for the rest of my life, for that matter.
     
    In 1968, Griffith probably wished he had Mele back, as Ermer led the Twins to a 7th place finish (though their 79-83 record would look pretty good a couple of decades later) in the last season before expansion and the establishment of divisional play.
     
    A year later, new manager Billy Martin led the Twins to a 97-win season and the first ever AL West Division title. One year was all Griffith could tolerate of Martin and Bill Rigney was brought in to replace him for 1970. Rigney one-upped Martin by winning 98 games. But Martin and Rigney combined to go 0-6 in the postseason, both managers seeing their Twins team get swept by the Orioles three games to none in the best-of-five Division Series.
     
    In his first four seasons of Big League ball, Rod Carew had participated in perhaps the most exciting pennant race ever in 1967 and played for two Division champions in 1969 and 1970. He was playing alongside Harmon Killebrew, Tony Oliva and Jim Kaat.
     
    Carew must have felt like he would be playing for championship contenders forever.
     
    But he never played in the postseason again with the Twins and would do so only twice more in his career (in unsuccessful Division series with the Angels in 1979 and 1982). Carew, in effect, lost his shot at appearing in a World Series with the Twins’ loss to Boston on October 1, 1967, in his rookie year.
     
    But as disheartening as that must have been for Carew, things would be even worse for Twins fans. It would be 14 years after Rigney’s club bowed to the Orioles in 1970 before the Twins would finish even as high as second place in their division and, as we now know, it would be 1987 before Twins fans could cheer on another team that would win any kind of title at all.
     
    It was a long wait for fans like me and the Twins would lose a significant chunk of their fan base along the way.
     
    Tomorrow: Part 2 -Lessons to be Learned.
     
    - JC
  2. Jim Crikket
    Over the past couple of months, a number of smart, informed people who spend a lot of time analyzing young baseball players have been publishing their lists of top Twins prospects. Since I’m not nearly as smart or informed about these players as others are, I’ve held off on publishing my own rankings.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)
     
    But I’m going to put my rankings out there today, for two reasons. First, I’ve now had time to read and consider the opinions of a lot of those smarter, more informed people and use the research and analysis they’ve done to help solidify my own opinions. Second, and perhaps more importantly, we’re still getting through a holiday season when many people are not bothering to go online and read blogs like ours, so if I write something really stupid, it’s less likely than usual to be noticed.
     
    So without further delay, here’s my list of top Twins prospects heading in to the new year:
     

    Byron Buxton (OF) – It’s risky to elevate a player this high when he has yet to complete his first year of “full season” professional baseball, but the Twins first round pick from 2012 (and 2nd overall pick) was named top prospect of both rookie leagues, Gulf Coast and Appy, last year by Baseball America and that’s pretty hard to ignore. He doesn’t have the power of Miguel Sano, the consensus top Twins prospect for the past couple of years, but his potential as a centerfielder gives him an edge over Sano, who’s still a work in progress defensively. While Buxton could stay behind for extended spring training, I’m not sure he really has anything left to prove in Rookie leagues. He should spend most of the year in Cedar Rapids (A). http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Sano2012h-225x300.jpgMiguel Sano
    Miguel Sano (3B) – Dropping Sano a spot from last year is simply a reflection of Buxton’s arrival rather than any red flags with regard to Sano. I saw Sano play several games in 2012 and saw nothing that would keep me from continuing to believe that he should someday claim a spot in the heart of the Twins batting order. We all know he can hit, but until I watched him several times, it didn’t really sink in to me just how well he runs the bases, as well. Midwest League pitchers seemed to pitch around him at times (for good reason), so it will be interesting to see how he fares against better pitching in Fort Myers (A+).
    Alex Meyer (P) – Acquired from the Nationals in return for Denard Span, Meyer immediately became the Twins’ best hope for a top of the rotation starting pitcher within the next couple of seasons. It has become evident that having a true ace… a pitcher who can miss bats consistently… gives a team a much better chance to compete for championships and Meyer has the potential to give the Twins such a weapon for the first time since Johan Santana was dealt to the Mets. It’s not going to happen right away, though, as Meyer didn’t exactly overwhelm hitters in the handful of starts he got at high-A last year. The Twins have invited him to open Spring Training in the Major League camp, but that almost certainly is simply to give the staff an initial look at the new guy. He may open the season at New Britain (AA), but I won’t be surprised if the Twins will keep him in Fort Myers (A+) to start the season with the hope that he’ll earn a quick promotion.
    Oswaldo Arcia (OF) – Arcia has been projected to be a future corner outfielder for the Twins, as he’s shown power and the ability to hit line drives in to the gaps, while demonstrating solid corner outfield skills with his legs, glove and arm. Arcia split time in 2012 between Fort Myers (high A) and New Britain (AA) and actually hit better at the higher level, where he put up a .328/.398/.557 split. Arcia really hadn’t been projected to arrive in Minnesota until at least 2014, but with the departures of Span and Ben Revere, the question now is whether Arcia’s path to The Show will be accelerated. I assume he’ll start the season in Rochester, but if he plays well there, look for him to be promoted to Minnesota if/when there are injuries or the Twins start trading away veterans like Justin Morneau or Ryan Doumit toward mid-season. To my mind, Arcia is the “position player” prospect most likely to make the earliest significant offensive impact on the Twins Major League roster.
    Aaron Hicks (OF) – Hicks was the Twins first round draft pick in 2008 as a high school player and his progression through the minor leagues has not been without some challenges. After a solid rookie league year after signing with the Twins, he spent the following two seasons at Class A Beloit, partially due to injury and partially due to unsatisfactory performance. In 2011, he had another lackluster season at Fort Myers (high A), leading his name to be dropped from many “top prospect” lists. In 2012, however, he put up a solid .286/.384/.460 split at AA New Britain and that was good enough, apparently, to restore the organization’s confidence in Hicks to the point where GM Terry Ryan felt comfortable trading away Span and Revere. I think it would be best for Hicks to spend some time at AAA this season, but it sounds like he’ll be given the opportunity to win the Twins CF job in Spring Training.
    Kyle Gibson (P) – Another first round (2009) pick of the Twins, Gibson’s career has been one full of promise… and injuries that seem intent on quashing that promise. A college injury resulted in his dropping to the Twins with the 22nd pick and after zipping through high-A, AA and AAA during the 2010 season, Gibson’s career was derailed by Tommy John surgery midway through his 2011 AAA season. He threw just over 28 innings across three minor league levels toward the end of 2012, with encouraging results and performed relatively well in the Arizona Fall League. There’s little doubt that he’ll get an opportunity to pitch for the Twins in 2013, but the Twins intend to limit his innings somewhat, so it may be 2014 before we see what Gibson can really do at the Major League level. It’s not unreasonable to expect him to be a mid-rotation starting pitcher for years to come. I’d like to see him open in Rochester (AAA), but won’t be surprised or disappointed to see him with the Twins to start the season. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Rosario2012d-300x224.jpgEddie Rosario
    Eddie Rosario (2B/OF) – Since being drafted in 2010 out of his Puerto Rican high school, Rosario has put together 2 and a half seasons of solid work, hitting about .300 and tallying an even .900 OPS. Those would be pretty encouraging numbers for a centerfielder, which is what Rosario was drafted to play. But in 2012, the Twins asked Rosario to learn to play 2B in Beloit (A) and while his defense in the infield is still a work in progress, if he can successfully develop Major League level skills at 2B, his abilities with the bat could mean the difference between a “solid” CF and an “All-Star” 2B. This makes Rosario one of the most interesting players to watch as he takes his talent to Fort Myers (A+) this season.
    Jose (J.O.) Berrios (P) – Until Alex Meyer was acquired from the Nationals, Berrios was arguably the Twins’ best hope for a future top of the rotation pitcher. That probably says as much about the overall dearth of top pitching in the Twins organization as it does about Berrios, but nonetheless Berrios made a very impressive debut after being a supplemental first round pick by the Twins this past June. Berrios threw only 30.2 innings for the Twins two rookie league teams, starting four of the 11 games in which he made appearances. He struck out 49 batters in those innings, however, while walking only four and pitching to a WHIP of only 0.620. It will be interesting to see how quickly the Twins push the 18-year-old Berrios through the system. We may get an indication of their intent by watching to see if they send Berrios to Cedar Rapids (A) in April or keep him in Florida for extended spring training.
    Max Kepler (OF) – Kepler was signed as a teenager out of Germany and given the highest signing bonus ever for a European ballplayer the same offseason the Twins signed Miguel Sano. Kepler was not as developed as a ballplayer as Sano, however, and as a result, Kepler was spending his second short season at Elizabethton (rookie) in 2012, while Sano was playing his first year of full season ball in Beloit (A). In 2012, Kepler finally showed some of the promise the Twins saw in him before signing him, hitting just a couple clicks below .300, putting up a .925 OPS and hitting 10 home runs in 59 games. He reportedly has the skills to play some CF, but with the other CF prospects the Twins have in the pipeline, he’s probably more likely to fill a corner OF spot. Kepler will turn 20 years old a few weeks before he likely opens 2013 in the Cedar Rapids (A) outfield.
    Trevor May (P) – The 10th spot is probably not the right ranking for May, who was part of the return the Twins got for sending Ben Revere to the Phillies. In all likelihood, May should be ranked a few spots higher or several spots lower, depending on which version of this 23 year old pitcher shows up. If he’s the fireballing hurler who struck out between 12 and 13 hitters per nine innings at some stops of his minor league career and caused him to be a consensus “Top 100 overall prospect” at one time, he would project to join Alex Meyer at the top of a future Twins rotation. But if he’s the pitcher who walked almost five hitters per nine innings and posted a 1.450 WHIP for Reading (AA) in 2012, he would join the ranks of several other arms in the Twins organization that project to potentially fill back of the rotation spots in Minnesota down the line some time. I would think he would open the season at Rochester (AAA), but wouldn’t be shocked or even disappointed if the Twins let him open in New Britain (AA).

    It’s a good sign for the Twins and the relative depth of their organization that a number of my picks for spots 11 through 15 this year have been ranked, by me and/or others, as top 10 Twins prospects previously. Each of these players have the potential to make significant contributions to the Twins sooner or later. Trying to distinguish these five guys from one another in a way to rank them 11-15, though, is just too much for my limited knowledge to do, so I’ll just list them alphabetically, along with where I would expect them to open the 2013 season.
     

    Joe Benson (OF) – Rochester (AAA)
    Travis Harrison (3B) – Cedar Rapids (A)
    B. J. Hermsen (P) Rochester (AAA)
    Chris Herrmann © – Rochester (AAA)
    Randy Rosario (P) – Elizabethton (Rookie)

    There’s a lot of baseball talent on this list and a number of other Twins prospects have a lot of potential, as well. It should be a fun year to follow all of the Twins’ minor league affiliates in 2013.
     
    - JC
  3. Jim Crikket
    It took me longer than usual to really study the BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot this year. I don’t know why. However, there remains a pretty interesting storyline this year with so many of the most high-profile steroid era superstars in their first year on the ballot.
     
    It’s not like we’ve had no discussion of the HoF at all though, as the Pleiss boys covered the topic in one of their “Talk to Contact” podcasts earlier this month.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
    Last year, I put up a poll at Knuckleballs and allowed our readers to cast votes. I’m not going to do that this year, but I will give you the benefit of my wisdom concerning who I would cast my vote for if the BBWAA had gone out of their frigging minds and sent me a ballot.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Baseball-Hall-Of-Fame.jpg
     
    First of all, there are going to be some players I voted for last year that I won’t be voting for this year, simply because so many of the first-timers are clearly deserving. That makes things tough for me because I do believe that the players I voted for last year are still worthy.
     
    Two years ago, I shared my thoughts about the BBWAA having the honor of determining who “gets in,” and in particular about those who refuse to vote for PED users based on some sort of “morality” judgment. Here’s one paragraph from that post that summarizes my views:

    I’m sure that if you and I sat down and tried to come up with a group of people worthy of casting judgments about others’ “morals”, we could come up with an idea or two. But I’m also pretty sure “sports writers” wouldn’t be at the top of our list. Not that sports writers are, inherently, less moral than any of the rest of us, as a group. But I’ve known enough of them over the years to be damn sure they aren’t morally superior to most other groups, either… and that includes ballplayers. So, if BBWAA members were willing to just vote based on players’ performances, I would reluctantly agree to let them keep their position as HoF gatekeepers. But if they think it’s their responsibility to protect the HoF’s integrity, please… spare me. The percentage of BBWAA members who would have willingly “juiced” in order to be able to play Major League Baseball in the 1990s instead of writing about it would be roughly 100%. I detest the hypocrisy of some of these writers.
     
    Last year, my post was geared more toward what my own approach would be if I were among those honored with a ballot. Again, a snippet to give you a sense of what my approach would be:

    My criteria for judging whether a player should be in the HoF is as much art as science. It’s not just an “eyeball test”. It’s more of a memory test. Certainly, statistical excellence over a period of a player’s career should be a consideration, but not the sole consideration.
     
    It’s the Hall of FAME. So tell me what these players accomplished during their careers that stood out, that was remarkable, that made an impression on baseball in their era, that made memories, that fans of that era and beyond still talk about and recognize, that made the player famous or added to the general level of fame bestowed upon the game of baseball itself.
     
    Why shouldn’t players that found something in themselves that allowed them to rise above their otherwise good-but-not-excellent career performance levels to give the baseball world something remarkable to remember for a lifetime be recognized for their contributions to baseball’s fame?
     
    This year, the ballot seems longer than usual. I don’t know if it really is. There are 13 players that carried over from last year and 24 first-timers, for a total of 37 players on the ballot. Click here for the full list, complete with career stats from baseball-reference.com.
     
    Voting BBWAA members can vote for up to 10 players, so I’ll do that as well. Here are the 10 players I would cast my vote for this year:
     
    First, five players who deserve to be in anyone’s Baseball HoF or you really shouldn’t bother having one… I don’t care what you think of them personally (which is probably pretty close to what I think of them personally):
     

    Barry Bonds
    Roger Clemens
    Sammy Sosa
    Rafael Palmeiro
    Mark McGwire

    Add to those a name that, I believe, has been wrongfully kept out of the HoF simply due to “guilt by association and rumor” and another name that could be treated much the same way for the same reasons if the BBWAA voters were going to be consistent (which is certainly not a given):
     

    Jeff Bagwell
    Mike Piazza

    That leaves room for just three more players on my ballot. It’s tough, but here are my choices and all three are carry-overs from my ballot last year:
     

    Jack Morris
    Tim Raines
    Alan Trammell

    That means a couple of guys I voted for a year ago are not on my ballot this year. I do believe Edgar Martinez is HoF worthy (if you don’t think a DH is worthy of the HoF, then get rid of the DH) and hopefully he will get in eventually. I also believe Dale Murphy is overlooked and, unfortunately, this is his 15th and final year on the ballot, so I won’t be able to add him back to my ballot in the future.
     
    It also means there’s at least one first-timer that I believe is certainly worthy of HoF status who is not on my ballot in his first year of eligibility and that’s Craig Biggio. Curt Schilling is another that I certainly could see myself voting for eventually. I’m sure both Biggio and Schilling will get the requiste 5% that will keep them on the ballot next year, so I don’t feel too bad about leaving them off this year.
     
    I’m also open to reconsidering such players as Fred McGriff and Larry Walker down the road. I suppose Don Mattingly and Bernie Williams should fall in to that category, too, but as career Yankees, they have a steeper hill to climb to get my vote (I never claimed to be an unbiased voter!).
     
    Last year, I correctly predicted that Barry Larkin would be the only player to get the 75% of votes necessary to be enshrined (granted, it wasn’t a tough prediction to make). I’m not sure it’s quite so easy this year. In fact, I think the only thing harder than predicting who will get elected might be actually getting elected. I don’t think anyone will get the necessary votes.
     
    Jack Morris will come very close, but the deep field will keep him from making the progress he would otherwise make. I hope I’m wrong about Morris… it would be nice for Twins fans to have something to smile about for a few days, anyway.
     
    Mike Piazza is really the only other name I think could possibly approach the 75% bar, but I just don’t think he’ll get there either. I’ll be very interested to see how his vote total compares to Bagwell’s though.
     
    Feel free to share who you would vote for and your predictions for who actually will be elected in the comments section.
     
    - JC
  4. Jim Crikket
    I’ve been pretty critical of the Twins front office lately. I’m not alone in that, of course. Quite a number of fans, including many who are far more informed and better able to communicate than I, feel that the Twins have simply not done enough to improve the team this offseason.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)
    Over this Christmas holiday week, I couldn’t help but reflect on matters so much more important than baseball. Will the ideologues in Washington really lead our country in to a deeper recession simply to try to make those who disagree with them look bad? What can we do to help those whose lives have been devastated by terrible storms? How do we make sure our children and their teachers can go about the educational process without fear of seemingly random acts of unthinkable violence?
     
    Kind of makes the whole debate over whether Terry Ryan is doing enough to fix the Twins’ rotation seem hardly worth thinking about, much less arguing about over and over, doesn’t it?
     
    So why do it? If we’re going to feel so passionate about a problem that we’ll write 1,000 words about it… not once but several times a week… shouldn’t the topic be more substantial than baseball? Of course it should.
     
    But I can’t solve those important problems. Nothing I say or write will help. I’ve led a relatively active political life, yet I’ve never felt less able to influence my government. I give to charities, but it seems like a drop in the bucket of what’s needed for humanity. I pray, yet have never felt less aware of God’s presence in our world.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/frustration2.jpg
     
    So perhaps it’s simply that powerlessness that brings me back here. I can’t do anything about any of the important matters facing the world, so I focus attention… arguably too much attention, at times… on baseball. Granted, I have no more influence with Terry Ryan than I do Congress, but I enjoy writing about baseball more than about politics, so here I am and here I shall remain.
     
    The give and take with other baseball fans and writers… especially other Twins fans… is enjoyable. It would certainly be more enjoyable if the talent being assembled looked to be more competitive on the field come Opening Day, but we can’t really do any more about that, as fans, than discuss it. So that’s what we do.
     
    Is it really all that important whether the Twins are being built to win more games in 2013 or not? Does it matter if we have to wait until 2014… or even 2015 or 2016… for the Twins to be good again? Well, for those of us closer to the end of our projected mortality arc than the beginning of it, it may be more important, but no, it’s not all that critical in the grand scheme of things.
     
    But it is important.
     
    I don’t believe the Pohlads are evil people out to fleece Twins fans out of our money without any concern for the quality of the product on the field. I don’t believe Terry Ryan is stupid about baseball, nor is he so ego-driven that he is determined to prove he can assemble a winning roster without spending any money at all. I also don’t envision his staff of senior baseball people resembling the group of old-school scouts in the movie version of “Moneyball,” whose player evaluations seemed based solely on “gut feel”.
     
    Pohlad and Ryan want to win. I believe they want to win in 2013, while also preparing to contend in years beyond. The players Ryan obtained in return for Denard Span and Ben Revere make it clear that Ryan’s primary focus is at least two years in the future. He knows it would be a very good idea not to have the 2013 Twins lose 95+ games again and he’ll try to avoid that, but he’s clearly not going to waste a lot of energy… or the Pohlads’ money… on any attempt to fix the team’s immediate problems.
     
    I still think that’s bad business, but it’s not my business. The Pohlads have entrusted those decisions to Ryan and, presumably, team president Dave St. Peter, so in a few years we’ll see who was right.
     
    With the new year almost upon us, it’s probably time to move past the, “what should Terry Ryan do?” phase of the offseason discussion, anyway. Maybe there will be a late bargain available to Ryan over the next couple of months, but for the most part, the roster is set. It will be an $80 million payroll short on established Major League talent. It will be a team projected to finish at the bottom of the AL Central again.
     
    But that doesn’t mean it can’t be fun to watch… and to talk about.
     
    That’s one of the things that makes baseball the greatest game in the world, to me. When the players… whatever their respective talent levels… take the field, anything can happen. You never know when you might see something you’ve never seen before. I couldn’t begin to count the number of baseball teams I’ve been involved with over the years, from the time I started playing organized ball at the age of 5, through my years as a player, as a coach, and now as merely a fan who enjoys writing about the game and my chosen favorite teams. But I’ve enjoyed literally every summer of baseball for these past 50+ years and I’m sure I’ll enjoy 2013, as well.
     
    I will also get frustrated in 2013. I will rant here… and elsewhere… about that frustration. I will argue about it. I will cheer what successes may be found in 2013 and I will try to savor the experience of watching a potential Hall of Fame catcher do his thing for the Twins, just as I savored watching Rod Carew’s talent, even during some very difficult years for the Twins and their fans.
     
    I may not spend much of my money on Twins tickets in 2013 (I spent no money at all on them in 2012) because I do believe the only way any of us can genuinely influence Ryan and his bosses to change their business strategy is by speaking with our pocketbooks. I attended 12-15 games a year when I felt the organization was moving in the right direction. I won’t do so when I feel that’s no longer true.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Hammond.jpg
    Hammond Stadium, Spring Training home of the Twins
     
    That doesn’t mean I won’t still be a fan. I’ve been a fan through far worse stretches over the past 50 years. For better or worse, being a Twins fan is an important aspect of who I am and I will continue to spend a considerable about of time following them, talking about them, writing about them and, yes, arguing about them. I’m not sure what that says about me, but it probably isn’t good… at least not entirely good. I don’t really care about that.
     
    I care about the Twins. And I care that Spring Training is less than two months away.
     
    - JC
  5. Jim Crikket
    Terry Ryan has been a busy boy. We may or may not be impressed by what he's been doing, but nobody can say he took an early holiday break from the office.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
    The Twins went in to the offseason needing starting pitching. Ryan told anyone who asked that he understood it was his job to improve the rotation. He also has, at various times, mentioned also wanting to add some bullpen pieces and someone to push Trevor Plouffe at third base.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/TwinsMoneyclip.jpg
     
    He also consistently claimed that payroll would not significantly inhibit him from turning one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball in to a group that could compete in the AL Central.
     
    Understanding that almost none of us actually believed that last part, I thought now might be a good time to tally up what the Twins' GM has accomplished so far and how much of the Pohlads' money he has spent. So, let's project what the 25-man roster might look like if there are no further additions to the roster. (For the sake of simplifying things, I'll assume all pre-arbitration eligible players will make $500,000... some will make a few bucks more, some a few less.)
     
    Starting position players:
     

    C Joe Mauer: $23,000,000
    1B Justin Morneau: $15,000,000 (inlcudes prorated bonus)
    2B Brian Dozier: $500,000
    3B Trevor Plouffe: $500,000
    SS Jamey Carroll: $3,750,000
    LF Josh Willingham: $7,000,000
    CF Aaron Hicks: $500,000
    RF Chris Parmelee: $500,000
    DH Ryan Doumit: $3,500,000

     
    That's $54,250,000 for the projected starting batting order. Ryan may still try to find a third baseman, but chances are he'll go dumpster diving even if he does find one, so I think it's safe to project that whatever four players Manager Ron Gardenhire will have keeping him company on the bench will be making somewhere close to the league minimum, so that's another $2,000,000 for some combination of Darin Mastroianni, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar, Oswaldo Arcia, Drew Butera, Chris Herrmann and/or whoever else claims a bench spot in Spring Training. (Butera is arbitration eligible, but it's unlikely he'll be awarded much, if any, above $500,000,)
     
    That makes $56,250,000 for 13 non-pitchers. Let's take a peek in to the bullpen:
     

    Closer Glen Perkins: $2,500,000
    Set Up Jared Burton: $2,050,000
    LHRP Brian Duensing: $1,300,000 (est. arb award)
    RHRP Anthony Swarzak: $500,000
    RHRP Alex Burnett: $500,000
    RHRP Casey Fien: $500,000
    RHRP Josh Roenicke: $500,000

     
    Yes, pretty much everyone below Duensing on the above list is going to have to win a spot in Spring Training, but for financial purposes this projection works. It would seem unlikely that anyone currently with the organization who knocks one of the last four guys out of the bullpen would make much more money. That adds up to a $7,850,000 bullpen.
     
    OK, we've put off projecting the starting pitching as long as we can, but let's uncover our eyes and take a look at the current state of the rotation:
     

    Kevin Correia: $4,500,000
    Mike Pelfrey: $4,000,000
    Vance Worley: $500,000
    Scott Diamond: $500,000
    Liam Hendriks: $500,000

     
    Once again, we could discuss the chances of Pelfrey being healthy enough to start the season in the rotation or whether Kyle Gibson will be there to open the season or whether someone like Pedro Hernandez might impress in Spring Training, but the net effect would just be swapping another "minimum wage" earner in to the fifth spot. So that's an even $10,000,000 for the rotation. Yes, in an era when mediocre starting pitchers are getting seven figure salaries, the Twins look to pay their entire rotation $10 million. And if that doesn't bother you enough, consider that Kevin Correia will make up 45% of that total.
     
    That all adds up to a current Major League payroll of $74,100,000. Even if we have to add the $5,500,000 the Twins owe Nick Blackburn (yes, the Twins look like they'll pay Blackburn more money NOT to pitch for them in 2013 than they'll pay anyone else TO pitch), the total amounts to only $79,600,000... for the entire roster.
     
    Rich Harden signed a minor league contract with the Twins this week and I haven't read yet whether his deal includes something more than minimum wage pay if he makes the Big League roster out of Spring Training, but it certainly wouldn't be surprising. That said, I think we will need to see Harden throw hard and stay healthy before we worry too much about what effect he'll have on the payroll.
     
    Maybe Terry Ryan isn't finished. One would certainly like to think he's spending some time with the agents of a couple of the remaining starting pitchers on the market who have demonstrated some level of proficiency of getting batters out over the last year or two, but would you be willing to bet on someone like Shawn Marcum still being added to the roster? Yeah... me either.
     
    The Twins' Opening Day payrolls during their three seasons at Target Field have been $97,659,167 (2010), $113,237,000 (2011) and $100,435,000 (2012)*, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. It's virtually assured, at this point, that the Opening Day payroll in 2013 will be the lowest since the final year the team spent at the Metrodome when they opened at $65,299,266.
    *Charley Waters of the Pioneer Press Tweeted over the weekend that it appeared the Twins Opening Day payroll would be about $83 million, $11 million fewer than in 2012. The only thing I can assume is that Charley is not counting the $3 million owed to Tsuyoshi Nishioka and the portion of Francisco Liriano's paycheck the team avoided paying by trading him. Perhaps the Twins had insurance that negated Scott Baker's salary? I don't know, but even his newspaper's published estimate of the Twins Opening Day payroll last year was about $100 million. Waters must also be assuming Terry Ryan is going to spend another $5 million somewhere because I can't come up with anything close to $83 million right now.
     
    What conclusions can we draw from this? Here's my big take-away: Terry Ryan could have slashed Opening Day payroll by 10% to $90 million and still had over $20 million to spend on starting pitching. Instead he has pried less than $10 million out of the Pohlads' wallets to fix arguably the most glaring problem of any team in Major League Baseball.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Empty-Target-Field.jpg
    Could this be a glimpse of what Target Field will look like during Twins games in 2013?
     
    Personally, I think cutting payroll even 10% from last season's level when you've got an entire community of frustrated and distrusting fans is just bad business. The Twins brass keep talking about planning to compete in 2013, but talking that way while simultaneously cutting payroll by more than 20% is insulting our intelligence.
     
    I think they're underestimating the baseball IQ of their fanbase and they will see far more empty seats at Target Field in 2013 than they are expecting. Of course, that's when we're likely to learn what "insulting" really is... because that's when someone in the organization is going to complain publicly about a lack of fan support.
     
    You get the level of fan support you earn. Right now, I don't think the Twins front office has earned the right to expect a single fan to show up for a game.
     
    Let's hope that changes over the next couple of months.
     
    - JC
  6. Jim Crikket
    Now that we’ve had a day to absorb the news of the Twins trading Ben Revere to Philadelphia, it’s time for us to get to know our newest member of the Twins MLB family, Vance Worley… aka “Vanimal.”
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/vance_the_vanimal_worley_by_timokreations-d478foc1-295x300.jpg
    (Image: timokreations)
     
    In an effort to do a little advance scouting on behalf of the Twins fanbase, I did a little Vanimal hunting on the internet. I have to say, so far I’ve liked what I’ve found.
     
    (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
     
    All of the initial reports provided the basics. He had a great rookie year in 2011 as a 23-year-old, during which he finished 3rd in National League Rookie of the Year balloting, but his sophomore year in 2012 was a bit bumpy and ended with some “clean up” surgery on his pitching elbow in September. He’s back to throwing now and is expected to be ready to roll in time for Spring Training.
     
    You can read all about Worley’s pitching record any number of places (though you might want to start with Parker Hageman’s excellent break down of Worley by clicking here). We’ll strive to bring you more here at Knuckleballs.
     
    The Asian-American pitcher (his mother is Chinese) apparently had the “Vanimal” moniker bestowed upon him by a weightlifting coach in the weight room during his freshman year at Long Beach State University (or Cal State Long Beach, if you prefer). I guess Worley must have hit the weights pretty hard, because the nickname has stuck.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Worley2-300x225.jpg
    (Photo: Len Redkoles/Getty Images)
     
    Here’s something else you should know… Vanimal has a reputation for having some swagger. We’ll definitely know when Worley is on the mound. The distinctive Oakley goggles are one clue and he’s got a bit of a strut coming off the mound after a strikeout. And then, of course, there’s the mohawk haircut (though word has it he may be tiring of that trademark hairstyle and might just let his hair grow long… so we have that to look forward to).
     
    He also talks to himself on the mound… and parents of small children might want to be prepared to answer some awkward, “what did he say, daddy?” questions from the young fans in the family. It’s not personal, just all about self-motivation, but lipreading could be entertaining this season.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Worley-300x192.png
    Vance Worely
     
    Like most professional athletes, Worley values his privacy away from the workplace. Don’t hassle him if you see him at a movie theater and if you happen to discover where he gets his haircut, don’t Tweet it to everyone in cyberspace. That kinda thing ticks him off. But on the job, he has a reputation for being friendly and accessible to fans and media (and even to the occasional blogger). While he wasn’t a fan of any particular MLB team while growing up in Northern California, he has grown in to a hobby of sorts that he shares with many fans… he collects autographed baseballs from many of his peers in the game.
     
    I’m looking forward to getting to know Worley better next season. He’s got personality and, frankly, that’s something I’ve thought the Twins clubhouse could use a bit more of lately. I’m not sure how the largely staid local fanbase will react to the Vanimal persona, but I suspect a lot of that will be determined by how well he gets… what do they call them?… oh yeah… outs.
     
    If you’d like to read more about our newest Twins pitcher, I suggest clicking here. He granted weekly access to Ed Condran, a columnist/blogger for www.metro.us, an online news publication. Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer also wrote a couple of interesting background pieces on Worley during his rookie campaign in 2011, which can be found here and here.
     
    - JC
  7. Jim Crikket
    This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.
     
    Baseball’s Winter Meetings get in to gear down at the Gaylord Opryland hotel in Nashville on Monday and that’s got me a bit nervous. The Twins, at least at the Major League level, are in a sorry state, having come off a 96-loss season which followed a 99-loss season. It just doesn’t get much worse than this, folks.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/OprylandIce.jpg
     
    A year ago, just ahead of the Winter Meetings in Dallas, I wrote a post here headlined “M&M: Time to Step Up or Shut Up.” The point was that, following a season in which the Twins stars had spent more time not playing baseball than playing baseball, perhaps it wasn’t totally unrealistic for the front office to play a little “wait and see” before spending a bunch of money trying to rebuild the roster to a level capable of contending. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, among others, needed to play better in 2012 or it really wouldn’t matter whether the Twins spent money to buy them some help.
     
    To their credit, I believe Mauer and Morneau did exactly what I asked. They both had much-improved seasons, managing to stay on the field and hit baseballs with some regularity. Whatever the reasons were for the Twins dropping 96 games in 2012, those reasons had little, if anything, to do with Mauer and Morneau. The failure can arguably be laid almost entirely at the feet of the pitching staff. And that’s not entirely surprising. We at Knuckleballs posted multiple articles last offseason expressing our disappointment about the Twins failure to add significant pitching help and we certainly weren’t the only people making that point.
     
    So here we are, a year later, on the eve of yet another week of Winter Meetings, and guess what… the Twins need to significantly improve their pitching staff. Terry Ryan made what certainly appears to have been a reasonable trade this week when he sent popular and productive outfielder/leadoff hitter Denard Span to the Nationals for potential future top-of-the-rotation pitcher Alex Meyer. But that deal won’t do anything to make the product at Target Field any more watchable in 2013.
     
    The reports we are reading leading up to these meetings indicate the Twins are expected to be very active and that Terry Ryan is looking to significantly improve the 2013 rotation largely through the free agent market. That’s encouraging to hear, but gang, we’ve heard that before.
     
    Let’s hop in to our time machine and go back just one year ago, shall we? Here’s a summary of what we were reading about the Twins activities during the Winter Meetings last December:
     
     

    On Day One last year, there was conjecture that the Twins remained interested in Edwin Jackson, but that Jackson was going to wait until CJ Wilson and/or Mark Buehrle set the market. The Twins were said to be interested in Jackson only if they did not spend the money to re-sign Michael Cuddyer. Of course, they signed Josh Willingham for considerably less money than Cuddyer was demanding, but we certainly did not see Jackson in a Twins uniform.
    Speaking of Mark Buehrle, reports also came out of Dallas on Day One that the Twins were one of four teams (along with the Nationals, Marlins and Rangers) that were “still in on” Buehrle. He eventually signed with the Marlins and is now a Blue Jay.
    So what DID the Twins do on Day One? They re-signed Matt Capps and claimed SS Pedro Florimon off waivers from the Orioles.
    On Day Two, we read that Buehrle had narrowed his list to five teams and that the Twins had an offer in. Word also came out that the Twins would be meeting with Jeff Francis’ agent during the Winter Meetings.
    On the other hand, the Strib’s LaVelle E. Neal III was reporting that the Twins had had no conversations with the agents of Francis and Jackson.
    They didn’t add a pitcher on Day Two, but the Twins did part with one. They traded Kevin Slowey to the Rockies for a “player to be named later.”
    And on Day Three, apparently worn out by all the activity the first two days, the Twins front office rested.

     
    Of course, later in the month, Terry Ryan inked Jason Marquis to a one year contract, so it’s not like he didn’t add any starting pitching, right?
     
    So what’s my point?
     
    My point is that, while Terry Ryan and Dave St. Peter are saying all the right things right now about improving the Twins in 2013 by adding legitimate starting pitchers, I’ll believe it when I see it. I’ve heard it before. Just a year ago, the media was being fed reports about how the Twins were in on Mark Buehrle and interested in talking to Edwin Jackson’s agent. But when it came to actually spending money, they signed Jason Marquis.
     
    And make no mistake, it would have been pretty easy to make a case to a top pitcher that their 2011 failures were fluke-ish… that injuries to Mauer, Morneau, Span, and others were responsible for the lousy record… and that with some pitching help and a return to health by their stars, the Twins could contend again in 2012. It won’t be nearly as easy to convince a top free agent that they’d be signing on to a contender in Minnesota this year. Last year, all Ryan had to so was spend money. This year he has to do a helluva sales job AND spend money.
     
    It’s perfectly fine for fans to be hopeful that Ryan will do exactly that. As fans, hope is what we live on in December and January.
     
    It’s also perfectly understandable for us to be skeptical that the Twins are really serious about being willing to spend the money that would be necessary to bring legitimate starting pitching help on board.
     
    As I’ve written this past week, Terry Ryan has been saying all the right things. I’m sure the Twins would like fans to take them at their word when they talk about being willing to spend money to make real and immediate improvements.
     
    But if the Twins really want us to take their words seriously, they need to do more than talk about signing good pitchers. They need to do it.
     
    You’re on deck Mr. Ryan. It’s time for you to step up.
     
    - JC
  8. Jim Crikket
    This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.
     
    It’s been difficult for me this offseason to, on the one hand, listen to and read Terry Ryan’s comments about what his plans are for addressing the Twins’ obvious needs, while bearing in mind the Twins’ historical approach to offseason roster building. In fact, it brings to mind the “Bizarro World” introduced by DC Comics back in my younger (much younger) days.
     
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Bizarro1.jpg
    Bizarro Superman #1
     
    You remember Bizarro Superman, right? The “perfect imperfect duplicate” of Superman that was essentially the Man of Steel’s polar opposite. He lived, along with Bizarro versions of various other DC Comics superheroes, on Bizarro World… a cube-shaped version of Earth. In Bizarro World, down is up, yes is no, and virtually every uttered word means exactly the opposite of what we’re programmed to think it means.
     
    Ryan’s stated plans for the offseason have pretty much convinced me that the Twins will be represented by Bizarro Terry Ryan at the MLB Winter Meetings in Nashville next week.
     
    Consider, for example, Ryan’s comments in response to questions from Twins Daily’s John “TwinsGeek” Bonnes, as published in TD’s “Offseason Handbook” (which, by the way, you really should order if you haven’t done so yet). In response to a question by John concerning Ryan’s perception of the free agent starting pitching market, Ryan said his view is that the market is, “thin,” but that, “there’s a few guys out there who are pretty darn good.” Given that there appears to be a deeper pool of above average starting pitchers available this year than there has been for years, most of us would only characterize Ryan’s assessment of the pitching market as “thin” to be… well… bizarre.
     
    Then consider Ryan’s response to the following questions:

    Bonnes: Are you likely to be chasing some players who are pretty darn good?
     
    Ryan: We better.
     
    Bonnes: Are you willing to give multi-year deals to pitchers?
     
    Ryan: You aren’t going to get a pitcher unless you give a multi-year deal.
     
    That, in itself, is a little bit un-Twinslike. Was Terry Ryan really saying he’s prepared to step up and offer multi-year deals for “pretty darn good” pitchers? But wait… it gets better.

    Bonnes: It sounds like you’re sitting back and seeing what in the market comes to you, as opposed to aggressively chasing a couple of targets.
     
    Ryan: If I do that, we’ll probably be holding the bag. You know pitching is going to go off the board. We certainly have to be looking at it.
     
    So, not only is Terry Ryan saying he’ll go multiple years for pretty darn good pitching, but he indicates an awareness that sitting back and waiting for pitching to fall to the Twins won’t get the job done.
     
    Who is this man and what did he do with our GM?
     
    This week, Ryan also was interviewed by Tom Pelissero and Phil Mackey at 1500ESPN and his message remained consistent with what he told Bonnes. Again, he used the term “thin” to describe the free agent pitching market, but he also went on to say the team needed more than one “Mark Buehrle” type pitcher. As he has stated in almost every interview he’s given this offseason, he continued to maintain that the Twins have enough money to fix the rotation and it’s his job to do so.
     
    Add it all up and you have to say that Ryan’s message has been consistent. According to Ryan:
     
     

    The Twins top… and perhaps only… priority is to fix the rotation. In the 1500ESPN interview, he went so far as to point out (accurately) that there’s been nothing published linking the Twins to anything but pitchers and that the only way they’d spend any significant money on anything but pitching would be if efforts to acquire serious rotation help ultimately prove fruitless.
    Payroll is not an issue and money will not preclude the Twins from fixing the rotation.
    Ryan intends to do exactly that… fix the rotation… even acknowledging that Scott Diamond, while having the potential to become a #3 pitcher, isn’t likely to be considered at that level in 2013. Ryan has also given every indication that he intends to actively seek multiple pitchers that exceed Diamond’s current talent level.
    Ryan does not intend to sit back and simply scrape the bottom of the barrel of the available pitching talent. He certainly sounds intent on being aggressive in pursuing what he believes the Twins need.

     
    None of that sounds much like the kind of noise coming out of the Twins front office in recent years. As recently as last offseason, Ryan was bluntly telling us that the payroll in 2012 would be cut considerably from the 2011 level. He played the “lower the fans’ expectations” game and then followed through by assembling a roster that reflected about a 10% decrease in Opening Day payroll, effectively meeting the reduced expectations.
     
    So… what should we expect next week down in Nashville? Will Ryan’s actions (or lack thereof) contradict his newly-aggressive public persona? Or will he back up his words with strong action?
     
    None of the “top half of the rotation” free agent pitchers have come off the board yet, nor have many of those rumored to be available via trade. So long as that’s the case, perhaps we can hold out hope that Ryan means what he’s been saying… that we’ll see a level of aggressive pursuit of pitching help, starting as soon as next week, unlike anything the Twins have demonstrated before. Maybe he’s not going to Nashville with one arm tied behind his back.
     
    I hope that’s the case. But I have to admit that years of watching the Twins steadfastly avoid paying market-rate, multi-year salaries to top-shelf (or even middle-shelf) starting pitchers on the free agent market has me skeptical.
     
    After all, as any true 1960s comic book fan could tell you, in Bizarro-speak, “me am signing good expensive pitching this time,” really means, “I’m going shopping for crap in the bargain bin again.”
     
    - JC
  9. Jim Crikket
    This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.
     
    I’ve never been in favor of giving long-term contracts to pitchers. I thought the Mets would regret giving Johan Santana five years at the salary levels they paid him. I have never advocated that the Twins should get involved in a bidding war for a Cliff Lee or a Roy Halladay or any other pitcher that was obviously going to get 5+ years at a bazillion dollars per year from one of the mega-market teams.
     
    It just doesn’t make sense, does it? Pitchers are so fragile. It just seems like there’s a better than 50-50 chance that any given Major League starting pitcher is going to blow out an elbow, shoulder, knee or other appendage that is pretty important for a pitcher to be effective. With that being the case, it seems like any team signing a pitcher to a four or five year contract should almost assume that they’re going to be paying that pitcher NOT to pitch for them for at least one of those seasons.
     
    Not a lot a lot of teams can afford to pay 10, 15 or 20 million dollars in any given season for a pitcher that never takes the mound. Sure the Yankees can absorb that kind of nonproductive payroll and the Dodgers are certainly headed in to the same category. Even the Red Sox and Phillies can probably deal with that kind of hit from time to time. But a team run on a tight budget like the Twins just can’t afford to take that kind of risk. Right?
     
    No, they can’t… usually.
     
    But these are not usual times in Twinsville and, as hard to believe as it may seem on the surface, right now the Twins actually can afford to take that kind of risk. In fact, I’d argue they almost can’t afford not to do so.
     
    While it may be counter-intuitive for Twins fans who have been programmed by the Twins front office to believe spending any kind of serious money over a period of more than a couple of years, especially for a pitcher, would lead to the financial collapse of the entire Pohlad family, there’s an argument to be made that now is the time to throw caution to the wind and dive in to that free agent pitching market. And I’m just the person to make that argument.
     
    So am I arguing that the Twins should go all out to outbid the Dodgers and Angels for Zack Greinke’s services? No. I haven’t gone quite that mad (though I might argue that it’s not… quite… as absurd an idea as most would claim). I’m also not sure I’d roll the dice on Dan Haren’s iffy back for more than a two year guaranteed contract.
     
    But let’s talk seriously about Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson (and maybe even Joe Saunders) for a moment.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/AnibalSanchez1.jpg
    Anibal Sanchez (Photo: Leon Halip, Getty Images)
     
    The Twins Daily guys, in their “2013 Offseason Handbook,” estimate that Sanchez and Jackson should command multi-year deals of about $11 million per year. They project Sanchez to get four years and Jackson to get three. They project Saunders to get three years at $8 million per year.
     
    I’ll say right up front that I don’t believe the Twins can sign any of those three pitchers for those figures. It will take more. First, because with the early deals we’re seeing for Baker, Guthrie, Kuroda (and perhaps others I’m forgetting) it’s apparent that pitchers are getting bigger bucks than the authors of the Handbook (and most of the rest of us) expected teams to shell out. But more importantly, each of these pitchers are going to get offers from teams who did not lose 95 games in 2012 and, all things being equal, they’ll sign with a team that’s been having some level success recently. So if the Twins want any of these guys, they’ll need to make sure all things are not equal.
     
    The way they can do that is to offer a longer term contract than other teams are willing to offer. If other teams will offer three years, the Twins need to offer four. If others will offer four guaranteed years, the Twins need to offer five.
     
    And there are two big reasons why Terry Ryan should do exactly that.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EdwinJackson.jpg
    Edwin Jackson (Photo: Jeff Curry, US PRESSWIRE)
     
    The first is that the Twins really… really… need good starting pitching. They need it now. They’re also going to need it in 2014 and they’re still going to need it in 2015 and 2016. Maybe Kyle Gibson will develop in to a solid #3 starter… or even better. Maybe Scott Diamond will do likewise. Heck, maybe even BJ Hermsen will become a reliable member of the rotation during that timeframe. But who else in the Twins organization projects as a reliable member of the rotation by 2016? Maybe JO Berrios. Maybe.
     
    Even if you believe any attempt to try to compete for a postseason spot in 2013 and 2014 is fantasy, you have to admit that there is precious little evidence that the Twins will have even an average rotation in place by the time Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario are roaming Target Field on a daily basis. If you believe that, by 2015, these young studs are going to be ready to usher in the next era of winning Twins baseball, don’t you think they’re going to need some pitching just as badly as Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham do?
     
    Signing 29 year-olds Jackson and/or Sanchez to long-term contracts means they should still be well within their primes in 2015 and 2016.
     
    I know what you’re thinking, though. What if they get hurt? What if one (or both) of them can’t pitch in 2015 or 2016? How can the Twins afford to shell out $11-$22 million for pitchers that can’t pitch? They can’t afford that risk…. can they?
     
    I’m glad you asked. Yes… yes they can. And I’m not just saying that because the Pohlads can technically afford 10 times that much risk without breaking a sweat. Through a very unique set of circumstances, the Twins can actually afford the risk of having over $20 million sitting on the Disabled List all year long without even threatening to crash through their self-imposed “50% of revenue for payroll” limit.
     
    During 2013 and 2014, the risk is minimal anyway, right? Because it appears nobody thinks the Twins should even be trying to field a real Major League team for the next two seasons. If they’re hurt, so what? But if they’re healthy and effective, maybe… just maybe… the Twins could surprise some folks.
     
    But it’s when 2015 rolls around that things get interesting. Even if Denard Span, Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau aren’t traded before the end of 2014, none of them are likely to be around for Opening Day, 2015. Morneau’s contract expires after 2013 and both Span* and Willingham have deals that end after 2014. Given that information, how many of the Twins’ non-pitchers do you think will even be eligible for arbitration in 2015?
     
    *Technically, the Twins hold a 2015 option on Span for $9 million. If you think he’ll still be with the Twins at that point and that the Twins will exercise that option, that’s fine. I think it’s unlikely, especially given all the outfield talent in the pipeline.
     
    Maybe you think Trevor Plouffe and/or Eduardo Escobar will still be around, but I wouldn’t count on it. Maybe Ben Revere will be in his arbitration years… assuming some combination of Hicks, Benson, Arcia, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler haven’t made Ben’s presence unnecessary. If Revere, Escobar and Plouffe have poofed, it’s conceivable that the nine starting position players in the Twins 2015 lineup will be paid a total of $27 million (that’s $23 million for Joe Mauer and the Major League minimum of $500,000 for the remaining eight starters). It’s not unreasonable to assume that the four bench players will similarly be minimum wage earners.
     
    It’s possible that Glen Perkins will still be with the Twins in 2015. If so, his contract calls for him to make $3.75 million that season and the Twins hold a $4.5 million option for 2016. Every other remaining pitcher on the Twins current 40-man roster is either likely to have departed via free agency by then or will still be under team control (either pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible) in 2015. In all likelihood, much of the Twins bullpen will have been replaced with rookies by then. But just to err on the side of caution, let’s assume that the six members of the bullpen not named Perkins are averaging $2 million each. That would mean a total of $15.75 million devoted to the pen in 2015.
     
    Scott Diamond will be in his first arbitration year in 2015. Let’s go crazy and assume he’ll make $5 million because he’s been so awesome in 2013-14. If Kyle Gibson and either Liam Hendriks or BJ Hermsen are holding down two other rotation spots, that’s another million dollars for the two of them, combined.
     
    By my count, we now have 23 players that the Twins will be paying a grand total of… wait for it… $50.75 million. And that’s perhaps being quite generous.
     
    If the Twins are fortunate to have both Jackson and Sanchez under contract for $11 million per year, each, their total payroll in 2015 could still be less than $75 million.
     
    If one or both of those pitchers is injured, the Twins would still have $25 million with which to attempt to replace the injured pitcher(s) and still keep their payroll below their Opening Day 2012 level.
     
    And we haven’t even mentioned the roughly $25 million of additional national TV revenue that every team in Major League Baseball is scheduled to begin receiving in 2014.
     
    How realistic is this? I don’ t know. One would think (or at least hope) that the Twins wouldn’t rely 100% on “kids” in 2015, but when you look at Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Rosario, Sano, Buxton, Santana, Gibson, Vargas, Kepler, Berrios, Hermsen, Harrison, Polanco, Salcedo, Herrmann… and more… aren’t we realistically expecting those players to have arrived by sometime in 2015, even if not by Opening Day?
     
    Might the Twins sign a veteran utility infielder for a couple of million dollars? Sure. Maybe they even talk Jared Burton in to staying for 2-3 million a year. Maybe there are others.
     
    But the point is, by 2015 every player on the current roster making more than a million dollars a year except Joe Mauer and Glen Perkins is likely to be gone. Morneau, Willingham, Span, Doumit, Carroll, Blackburn. That’s something like $42 million of payroll coming off the books by 2015.
     
    I’m not sure there’s ever a good time to give expensive, long-term contracts to even one pitcher, much less more than one. But if there is, I would think it would be when (a) you desperately need good starting pitchers and expect that desperation to last several years, ( you’ve got a number of highly talented position players (yet almost no can’t-miss pitchers) within a couple of years of their planned MLB arrival dates, and © nearly half your current payroll will come off the books by the time those pitchers enter the third year of their new contracts.
     
    Coincidentally, those are the exact circumstances the Twins find themselves in today.
     
    - JC
  10. Jim Crikket

    Money Matters

    By Jim Crikket,

    This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.
     
    I’m constantly struck by how so many otherwise intelligent people suddenly sound like idiots when discussing issues related to money. A number of these people are certainly not idiots… they’re accomplished business owners and/or people who have achieved considerable success at running businesses. So if they aren’t as stupid as the words they’re saying makes them sound, one can only assume that they think the people hearing/reading their words are stupid enough to believe what they’re saying.
     
    Yes, I’m referring primarily to the Twins front office.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/PohladRyanStPeter.jpg
    Owner Jim Pohlad, GM Terry Ryan and President Dave St. Peter
     
    It was over a month ago that the Twins held a press conference and made owner Jim Pohlad, President Dave St. Peter and General Manager Terry Ryan available to the mainstream media. Predictably, the topic of the team’s potential 2013 payroll came up. Also predictably, the Twins brass was non-committal. Here’s an excerpt from the story written at the time by MLB.com’s Twins beat reporter Rhett Bollinger (click here for the link):


    Pohlad said that payroll will not be a concern this offseason, but wouldn’t give a firm number on what that will be. The Twins entered the 2012 season with a payroll right around $100 million.

    “We’ve never told anybody they have to spend ‘X’ dollars or that they can’t spend whatever they are recommending,” Pohlad said. “So it could go up, it could go down. It’s whatever Terry tells us. We’ve talked about spending in that 50 percent of revenue, but it doesn’t mean Terry will spend that.”

    Ryan said that the payroll situation will be fluid and that it should not hinder him from acquiring the starting pitching the club needs to compete next season.

    “I think we can quit fooling ourselves that money is the answer,” Ryan said. “We’re going to have to make good decisions to create a pitching staff that’s going to give us a chance.”
     
    Well, I’m glad they put that question to rest, aren’t you? I’m so glad to know that money doesn’t matter.
     
    We don’t know whether the Twins could have made a deal with the Marlins for the same package of players that they dealt to Toronto last week. There’s absolutely no doubt, however, that the addition of Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes would have gone a long way toward addressing the biggest holes in the Twins lineup and the level of players the Jays sent back to Miami certainly could have been made available by the Twins.
     
    So why wasn’t it the Twins that made the deal? I don’t know. But it’s such a friggin relief to know that whatever the reason was, it wasn’t money!
     
    The Twins also lost Scott Baker to the Cubs last week. Baker got a good deal. $5.5 million guaranteed with another $1.5 million in incentives on a straight one year deal. According to the Star Tribune’s beat reporter, Joe Christensen, the Twins were very interested in keeping Baker, but wanted an option year for 2014, which Baker wouldn’t agree to. Again, it makes me feel so much better to know that the reason Baker won’t be wearing a Twins uniform in 2013 had nothing whatsoever to do with money.
     
    Here’s something I’ve learned from working in Corporate America for the past 30+ years: Whenever someone in senior management tells you, “It’s not about the money,” that means that money is exactly what it’s all about.
     
    As Twins fans, we’ve become programmed to just accept the “company line.” We’ve been hearing it since the days of Calvin Griffith and on through the Pohlad era at the Metrodome. Sure, there were hints that having a new stadium and the revenues it would generate might change things, but by and large, the fan base has continued to just accept the, “we’ll spend 50% of revenue on payroll,” line of crap that has always come out of the Twins’ offices.
     
    It has become second nature, to the point where Twins fans seem to almost think that’s how every Major League team does business and we act surprised when other teams behave differently.
     
    The Tigers went to the World Series, but clearly needed to improve at a corner outfield position. They looked for the best option on the market, moved quickly and signed Torii Hunter to a deal that seemed like it was a little excessive, given his age. How can they do that? Won’t that mean their payroll might exceed half of their revenues? Ah, but they’ve got an old owner who wants to win a World Series before he dies, so that’s why they can do what the Twins won’t, right?
     
    The Blue Jays saw themselves needing much the same kind of help that the Twins need. They agreed to take on more years of higher salaries than they might have really been comfortable with, but they made the deal because they want to compete. But that’s ridiculous, right? Boy, they’ll sure regret having Buehrle and Reyes on the payroll toward the back end of those contracts because in a couple of years, their payroll might exceed half their revenues! Ah, but they’re owned by a giant Communications conglomerate and that’s why they aren’t limited as to payroll.
     
    I’ve got a news flash, folks. Every team starts the offseason with a self-examination that identifies what their biggest needs are. The next step for most teams that are committed to being competitive is to identify the best options available via free agency or trades to meet the identified needs. Unless you’re the Rays (who have a whole bunch of financial issues unrelated to the quality of their team), your front office knows that the quality of the product on the field drives revenue.
     
    But if you’re a Twins fan, you’ve been conditioned not to ask who would best fill the team’s needs, but who would fit in to the Twins’ designated payroll limit. That’s because the Twins have historically seemed oblivious to the basic business tenet that product quality drives revenues.
     
    They’ve brainwashed fans in to believing that the only reasonable way to operate a business is by subscribing to the theory that a drop in revenues last year means they must cut payroll next year. It’s time for fans to become deprogrammed from that mindset and let the Twins know that their fan base is not as stupid as the club has treated them as being.
     
    Maybe I’m being premature with this criticism. After all, it’s still early in the offseason and the Winter Meetings are still a couple of weeks away. Terry Ryan may actually sign honest-to-goodness legitimate starting pitchers to fill the Twins’ needs in that area, regardless of the cost. He may make a trade or two that will improve the middle infield, even if it means making his bosses nervous. Maybe he’ll prove that his words about payroll not hindering him from doing his job were more than just more of the same BS we’ve heard for the past decade.
     
    But until the Twins start ACTING like money doesn’t matter, they should stop saying it. It just makes them look like fools… or like they think that’s what we are.
     
    - JC
  11. Jim Crikket
    This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.
    I’ve been feeling under the weather the past couple of weeks and that tends to make me grumpy. I’m feeling much better, but apparently the grumpiness is not wearing off quickly. The Toronto-Miami trade announced Tuesday didn’t help my mood much, either.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/grumpydog.bmp
    Grumpy blogger
     
    We really should have seen this coming. It’s not like Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has never cleaned house before, right? True, in the past, he’s dumped his high-priced stars after winning World Series Championships and pleading poverty because he didn’t have a shiny new stadium like other teams did. But in retrospect, we really can’t be surprised that he is once again overseeing the complete dismantling of his roster. What did surprise us, however, was that this time he unloaded almost his entire remaining cadre of recognizable stars on to one single team and that team was the Toronto Blue Jays!
     
    All-Stars Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes are now Blue Jays, as are Emilio Bonifacio and John Buck, who’s actually returning for a second engagement in Toronto. The Marlins are also sending a few million dollars in cash along, but not enough to even make a dent in what I’ve seen estimated to be $160 million of remaining salary owed to the new Jays players. In fact, it appears the cash included in the deal is primarily just to cover most of Buck’s salary.
     
    In return, Toronto sent the Marlins Yunel Escobar and several young (read: cheap) players that are several years from their first big paydays. A couple of those players are legitimate prospects that could eventually play major roles on a Big League roster, so it’s not like Toronto didn’t give anything up in the deal.
    But this is a Minnesota Twins blog, so what does any of this have to do with the Twins? Simply this… the Blue Jays, like the Twins, saw themselves at or near the bottom of their Division after yet another disappointing season and faced some choices concerning how to change their fortunes. They could promote young talent from within the organization to fill some of their needs and look to fill a few other holes via trade or fringe free agents… or they could find top-shelf talent available on the trade market and use some of their better young prospects to acquire it. They obviously chose the latter path.
     
    As Twins fans, I think we’re entitled to pose the question, “Why shouldn’t the Twins do the same thing?”
     
    I know we’ve been brainwashed for years by the Twins to the point where we now believe that the only way for the Twins to become competitive again is to trade away established stars like Denard Span, Justin Morneau and/or Josh Willingham for the starting pitching so desperately needed and middle infield help that certainly could stand to be upgraded, while replacing the departing players by backfilling with young guys. That’s what the Twins have always done. It’s a much more accurate description of “The Twins Way” than is the long-established myth that they play sound fundamental baseball between the lines.
     
    The Blue Jays, however, have examined a very similar set of circumstances and decided instead to be bold. Of course, it helped that they found a crazy-assed owner who overpaid for several stars a year ago and now wanted to dump them all.
     
    So let’s return to the question posed… what would keep the Twins from doing the same thing the Blue Jays did (other than the obvious… an ultra-conservative management team)?
     
    Do the Twins not have young talent comparable to what the Jays had? I find that hard to believe. Most of the Major League ready players sent to Miami appear to be nothing more than temporary fillers to replace the guys they gave up and only two of the prospects appear to be even potential above-average ballplayers. One of them is a Jake Marisnick, a “five tool” outfielder who’s probably going to repeat AA and the other is lefty starting pitcher Justin Nicolino, who has only had one year of full-season minor league ball. Nicolinao is arguably a better pitching prospect than the Twins have in their pitching-poor organization, but the Twins appear to have several outfielders with greater value than Marisnick.
     
    Is it a money issue? Let’s put it this way… it probably IS a money issue in that the Twins under current management have never been inclined to take on the kind of salary commitments that Johnson, Buehrle and Reyes represent. However, it SHOULDN’T be a money issue. The Blue Jays had an opening day payroll in the mid 80 millions a year ago, without the benefit of a ballpark like Target Field. They barely cracked the 2 million mark in attendance and even that was about a 10% increase over 2011.
     
    But here’s the thing. The new national media rights deal for Major League Baseball is going to put something like an additional $25 million in revenue straight in to the pockets of every MLB team starting in 2014. Does that mean that teams like Toronto and Minnesota should just go indiscriminately crazy and overpay a bunch of has-beens and never-weres? Of course it does not. But it should open the door for teams to rethink their past operating models.
     
    The Twins have historically told the public that their model is to spend about 50% of revenues on their Major League payroll. That goes back all the way through the old Metrodome days when the team had one of the worst revenue streams in MLB and it has continued through the “boom” years of their new ballpark. If they hold to that model, only half of the “new money” from the media deal will see its way in to their payroll budget.
     
    But why should that be the case? What additional expenses come with that $25 million in additional revenue? Absolutely none. It is simply “found money” that comes with no strings attached and if the Twins have indeed been realizing revenues at twice their MLB payroll, it represents at least a 12.5% increase in revenues! I’m sorry, but I simply can’t buy any excuse that might be proffered for why the team should not sink most, if not all, of that money in to putting a better product on the field.
     
    But wait… the Jays, while not drawing as many fans as the Twins lately, are at least seeing their attendance rise over the prior year while attendance at Target Field is dropping off dramatically. So shouldn’t the Twins be more conservative? Heck, no!
     
    Don’t you think the phone lines going in to Toronto’s offices are heating up today with people signing up for 2013 ticket packages? Reasonable debate may be offered as to just how many additional wins the new Blue Jays players can be expected to add to their record, but the Jays front office sent a clear message to their fan base that they intend to get serious about ending their also-ran status in the AL East. I refuse to believe the same wouldn’t be happening at the Target Field offices of the Twins today if it had been Terry Ryan who had pulled off a similar deal yesterday.
     
    I’m fine being patient for a few more weeks to see what kind of improvements Ryan can make to the Twins roster. After all, even if he did want to follow the Blue Jays’ lead and pull off a similar monster deal, there aren’t many crazy owners like Jeffrey Loria out there. Even the A’s, who can almost annually be counted on to trade away anyone with a pulse, are reportedly looking to add talent this offseason rather than trade away what they have.
     
    But Twins fans should not have to listen to more crap from the front office about how payroll doesn’t matter and how $85-90 million is more than Terry Ryan ever used to have at his disposal so there’s no reason to spend more than that now. That’s complete and utter bullcrap.
     
    If the Twins want more people to attend games in 2013 instead of fewer, there’s one way and one way only to accomplish that. It’s not by adding pitching at the expense of having to trade away a number of your best position players and it’s sure as hell not just by adding a drink rail in right field.
     
    You get more fans at the ballpark and more viewers on television and more sales of your merchandise by making bold moves to improve the crappy product you’ve put on the field for the past two years.
     
    The Blue Jays finally seem to get that. I’m not sure the Twins ever will.
     
    - JC
  12. Jim Crikket
    This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.
     
    The Twins announced Monday that they’ve filled their three open Major League coaching positions. As had been speculated, two of those coaches are Bobby Cuellar (bullpen coach) and Tom Brunansky (hitting coach). But the third addition qualifies as a mild surprise, as Terry Steinbach will be stepping in as the Twins bench coach (and catching instructor).
     
    While many Twins fans had wanted Minnesota native Paul Molitor to fill one of the openings, it turned out to be another native of the Gopher State, New Ulm’s Steinbach, who got the gig.
     
    Many had expected Rochester Red Wings manager Gene Glynn to be promoted to the Twins dugout, but reports are that he will remain in his role at Rochester.
     
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/BrunanskyST11.jpg
    Tom Brunansky, new Twins hitting coach (Photo: Knuckleballs)
     
    Of particular note, two of the new Twins coaches come with championship jewelry that they can flash in the clubhouse. Brunansky, of course, was a member of the Twins 1987 World Series Championship team and Steinbach got his ring with Tony LaRussa’s 1989 Oakland Athletics team that swept the Giants.
     
    Brunansky came up through the Angels system and appeared in a few games with the Halos in 1981 before being traded to the Twins a year later. In 1988, Brunansky was traded to the Cardinals for Tommy Herr in one of the most infamous trades in Twins history. Over the final seven years of his career, he played for the Cards, Red Sox and Brewers.
     
    Following nearly a decade in an A’s uniform, Steinbach finished his playing career with three years, from 1997-99, with the Twins.
     
    Both Brunansky and Steinbach also have All-Star credentials. Clearly, in these two coaches, the Twins have added plenty of credibility to the coaching staff. Any player that won’t listen when Brunansky and Steinbach talk probably won’t listen to anyone.
     
    Brunansky has been working his way up through the Twins minor league coaching ranks the past two and a half years and Steinbach has served as an instructor during Spring Training with the Twins for several years.
     
    While Cuellar doesn’t come with the same Major League credentials that the other two do, having just the proverbial “cup of coffee” with the Rangers in 1977, he does have a long history of working with successful pitchers on their way up to the Big Leagues.
     
    Most notably, to Twins fans anyway, Cuellar is credited with working with Johan Santana to perfect the change-up that Santana used to lay claim to two Cy Young awards as a Twins pitcher. However, Cuellar also worked with other pitchers, such as Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson, who didn’t turn out so bad, either. Most recently, he’s been the Red Wings’ pitching coach, but he has also spent time on Major League staffs with the Expos (pitching coach), Rangers (bullpen coach) and Pirates (bullpen coach).
     
    In the same announcement, the Twins indicated that Scott Ullger would be the first base coach and Joe Vavra will man the third base coach’s box.
     
    I can’t help but wonder if Glynn was left off the Major League staff for essentially the same reason that Molitor wasn’t seen as a “fit” by GM Terry Ryan. Specifically, both men would probably be viewed as a potential “manager in waiting” to replace Ron Gardenhire should the Twins get off to a slow start in 2013. Assuming they both remain in the organization in their prior roles, they would still be available to step in if the ship starts sinking early in the year, but it makes some sense to me not to have them standing there looking over Gardy’s shoulder every game.
     
    To my mind, there’s nothing not to like about these hires. The Twins have brought on a bullpen coach that has a long track record of success working with young pitchers (which the Twins bullpen is likely to have a plethora of well in to the future) and both a bench coach and hitting coach who not only have related well to young players, but should have credibility with the Twins’ veterans, as well.
     
    I’m on board with these hires, although I cringe a bit at Ullger and Vavra coaching the bases. Most importantly, now that the coaching staff is set, Terry Ryan can turn his attention to adding a few new players for these guys to coach.
     
    - JC
  13. Jim Crikket
    This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.
     
    This is what happens when the offseason rolls around and I really have no rooting interest among the four remaining MLB teams in the respective League Championship Series. I write 2000 words about something that will never, ever happen. At least that’s what happened to me Sunday.
     
    But it’s not my fault. I’m blaming my fellow Knuckleballs blogger, Eric, and this Sunday morning Tweet:

    @ERolfPleiss Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says Red Sox should target Mauer and/or Morneau this winter. #MNTwins http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2012/10/13/few-ideas-shore-red-sox-roster/npiJ3r49NrtnhnGInPoQ1L/story.html …
     
    Having nothing better to do, I clicked the link to Cafardo’s article, which goes through several possible moves the Red Sox could make to get their team back on track, starting with trading for Joe Mauer. Cafardo mentions that the Red Sox are reportedly a bit gunshy about taking on more expensive long-term contracts and wonders if the Twins would eat some of his salary. On the other hand, if you’re the Twins, the only reason to deal Mauer would be to get out from under that contract. Putting those factors together, you quickly conclude that any such deal is beyond unlikely and bordering on unthinkable.
     
    But this is the offseason and what’s the offseason for if not to think about the unthinkable?
     
    I’m not surprised to see a Boston writer bring up Mauer’s name as a possible target for the Red Sox. In fact, given how old and fragile the Yankees line up is looking, I’d be shocked if Mauer’s name didn’t appear in more than one New York writer’s “How to Fix the Yankees” column in coming weeks, as well.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/MauerST11k-834x1024.jpg Joe Mauer (Knuckleballs photo)
     
    But there are any number of logical reasons why Joe Mauer won’t be going anywhere. Local boy. Popular with local fans. Historically great hitting catcher. Huge contract. No-trade clause. The list goes on.
     
    But if you’ll promise not to misinterpret this as an article suggesting that Mauer either should or will be traded, let’s at least take a look at whether there are any circumstances under which Terry Ryan might actually consider a discussion.
     
    Let’s just say, for the sake of argument, that Boston GM Ben Cherington places a call to Ryan and asks the simple question, “Can we talk about Joe Mauer?”
     
    Understand, it’s unlikely that question would even be asked. Cherington is unlikely to be looking to take on $23 million per year long-term contracts. Still, as Cafardo points out, Mauer would fit nicely in to a line up that would accommodate a catcher/1B/DH like Mauer. He might also set some kind of modern-day record for doubles in Fenway Park. Bringing in a legitimate superstar would send a strong message to Red Sox Nation that the team has no intention of taking several years to rebuild their brand. And let’s be honest, the Red Sox can afford to pay Mauer his money. They freed up a lot of payroll space with their late-season deals and if they decide to let David Ortiz walk away, they’ll have even more money to play with.
     
    So just maybe the Red Sox could see themselves calling about Mauer. But should the Twins even answer that call? That answer may not be as obvious as many fans think.
     
    The Twins gave Mauer an excessive contract before the 2010 season because they could not afford, from a public relations standpoint, not to sign him at any price he and his agent demanded. Opening a new stadium built largely with public funding, with virtually every seat bought and paid for through season tickets (and a waiting list of people willing to replace any holder who drops out), there was no way the Twins could allow themselves to be seen as letting the local hero get away because they didn’t want to pay for him. For the first time in franchise history, money really didn’t matter.
     
    But those days are nothing more than a misty memory today. The Twins are coming off of consecutive seasons of more than 95 losses and attendance is dropping. Put those factors together and it wouldn’t be unrealistic to expect the Twins to slash payroll for the second straight offseason. Today, money does matter. Paying one player $23 million dollars when your total payroll is $110 million is one thing. Doing so when your total payroll is $85 million is something else, altogether.
     
    Still, it’s not like the Twins are destitute, either. With the money coming off the books after the past season, Terry Ryan has enough payroll to work with to make improvements to his team. There aren’t a lot of top of the rotation pitchers out there, but there are plenty of more reasonably priced arms on the market and he even has a couple of trade chips he can afford to flip for pitching if he wants to go that direction. Also, despite what some folks might think, Joe Mauer is still really, really good at baseball and he’s likely to stay good for a number of years. You don’t just give that kind of talent away for a handful of magic beans (or in this case, for just a few million dollars of payroll space).
     
    What this all means is that if, as Cafardo suggests, Cherington asks TR whether the Twins would eat any of Mauer’s contract, the answer would be (or at least should be), “hell no!” But what if Boston agrees to take on that contract?
     
    Conventional wisdom in these kinds of trades is that the team trading a big contract either gets high level prospects back by eating some salary OR gets marginal prospects back while dumping the entire contract. That’s considered “fair return.”
     
    Yet the Red Sox themselves managed to not only unload more debt owed to
    less talented players on to the Dodgers a couple of months ago, but got legitimate talent back in return, as well. They should be congratulated for that. They should also be reminded of that when they call the Twins about Joe Mauer. “Fair” is a relative term. “Fair” depends on how badly you want what I have. If you don’t want Mauer that badly, that’s fine. If you do, then shut up about “fair” and let’s get serious.
     
    There are 3-4 players in the Red Sox system that the Twins would have to target as possible players they’d need in return. I’m not any kind of expert on minor league players, but fortunately I know how to read things written by people who are. I also have a pretty good idea what the Twins need (then again, who doesn’t at this point?).
     
    Any discussion with the Red Sox about Mauer would have to start with the Twins dumping his entire contract AND getting at least one of the following players in return:
    Allen Webster: 22 year old right-handed starting pitcher that the Sox got from the Dodgers in the Crawford, et al, trade. He’s got a mid-90s fastball and strikes out nearly a batter per inning. He pitched in AA this season and should be a AAA arm to start 2013. He was the #2 prospect in the Dodgers organization prior to the trade.
    Matt Barnes: Righty starting pitcher was the Sox first round pick out of UConn in 2011 and covered both levels of A-ball in 2012. Barnes also has a mid-90s fastball and strikes out a ton of hitters. He’s likely to be a year behind Webster in terms of being Major League ready, however.
    Garin Cecchini: 21 year old 3B had a .305/.394/.433 split in high-A ball in 2012. He also stole 51 bases in 57 attempts. He hasn’t shown a lot of power yet but hits a ton of doubles. With Will Middlebrooks perhaps entrenched at 3B for the Red Sox, Cecchini could be blocked unless he’s converted to a 2B. The Twins could use help in either spot.
     
    Speaking of third basemen being blocked by Middlebrooks, the Red Sox top prospect is reportedly Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts is playing shortstop and the Sox hope he can stay there but scouts have doubts about whether he will be able to do that. They think he will more likely need to move to 3B or, perhaps even more likely, a corner OF spot or 1B. He was just 19 years old through the past season but has already shown both an ability to hit for average and power through Class A and even in a month of games at AA. It sounds like Boston has their own version of Miguel Sano, but it’s unlikely they’d trade him for anyone. I wouldn’t.
     
    With Cecchini and Bogaerts knocking on the door, maybe Boston should consider trading Middlebrooks?
     
    A step below these guys would be someone like Henry Owens, who is a 20 year old string bean of a pitcher with what appears to be a lot of potential. He’s 6’7” and a bit over 200 pounds and only throws in the low 90s at this point. But he had 130 strikeouts in 101.2 innings at Class A in 2012 and that would certainly move him to the top of the Twins’ starting pitching prospects list in a hurry.
     
    If the Twins could score one of these top prospects from Boston in addition to shedding Mauer’s contract, Ryan could then be free to have conversations with his peers about Major League level pitching without being as concerned about salary. Would a trade for someone like James Shields (who has a $9 mil club option with the Rays in 2013) then be something worth considering?
     
    http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a39/CapitalBabs/Baseball/Steve/RyanJune2012d.jpg
    Terry Ryan (Knuckleballs photo)
     
    But even if Ryan and Cherington could come to some kind of agreement, what about that pesky no-trade clause in Mauer’s contract? Would he even consider giving approval? Let’s just say I no longer believe it’s necessarily a certainty that he’d say “no” to such a deal.
     
    On the one hand, Joe’s a very private person and it would seem that moving to a large-market team that is as dysfunctional as the Red Sox has been would be counter-intuitive. On the other hand, he’s a really big fish in a mid-market fishbowl and you wonder if he might not welcome the opportunity to be just one of many mega-stars in the New England sports scene. As Cafardo points out, Mauer also lives in Fort Myers in the offseason. Guess who, besides the Twins, has their Spring Training facility in Fort Myers? Yep… the Sawx.
     
    Let’s also be honest about something else. Despite the colossal belly flop of a season that the Red Sox had in 2012, if you were Mauer and were weighing the Sox against the Twins as to which organization was more likely to field a Championship level team over the remaining six years of your contract, there’s no doubt who you would see as being more likely. Boston may not always make the right decisions, but their clear goal every year is to win it all. And every year, they make moves they believe will give themselves a better shot at doing so. You simply can not say that about the Twins.
     
    Joe Mauer is not a naïve little boy any more. Family is important. But he already lives in Florida half the year and the life of a MLB ballplayer during the season doesn’t leave much time for family anyway. With Boston training in Fort Myers, I think they might just be one team he would consider waiving his no-trade deal for.
     
    So, IF the Red Sox call… IF Terry Ryan will listen… IF the Red Sox would take on the entire contract… and IF the Twins could also get a top prospect (or two?) in return… would Mauer agree to a trade?
     
    Let’s just say that if, like me, you are one who never wants to see Joe Mauer in anything but a Twins uniform, we should probably hope it doesn’t come down to that last factor.
     
    - JC
     
    [EDIT: CORRECTIONS made to originally incorrect statements concerning the timing of Mauer's contract. Thanks for pointing out the error, Winston Smith.]
  14. Jim Crikket
    This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.
     
    Yes, you read that right.
     
    If you live in Eastern Iowa or have been thinking about making a trip to Cedar Rapids to check out the home of the Cedar Rapids Kernels, the Twins’ new Class A Midwest League affiliate, the Kernels are inviting you to watch a World Series game with them.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/KernelsParty.jpg
     
    Thursday, October 25, is the date and we’re all invited to Perfect Game Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium to watch the World Series game that night.
     
    Doors open at 6:00 pm and admission is FREE!
     
    Not only will we have the opportunity to rub elbows with fellow Twins/Kernels fans, but the Twins’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year, BJ Hermsen, will be on hand, as well!
     
    Hermsen will be signing autographs and standing for pictures with fans from 6:30 until 8:00 pm.
     
    Not only that, but if you’re new to the Kernels’ “family,” it will be your first opportunity to share in a traditional “Thirsty Thursday” event, where you can purchase 12 ounce draft beers, sodas and bottled water for $2.00 each. Of course, other standard ballpark food will be available throughout the evening, as well.
     
    You’ll also find brand new Kernels/Twins affiliation gear on sale at the event.
     
    So give it some thought and if you’re in the area, let’s Party at the Park!
     
    - JC
  15. Jim Crikket

    Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes

    By Jim Crikket,

    This article originally was posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.
     
    I didn’t rush right out to post reactions to the Twins’ coaching changes as the information came out on Thursday, which is probably a good thing.
     
    StarTribune beat reporter LaVelle E. Neal III was obviously wired in to the situation at Target Field and started the ball rolling by announcing that bullpen coach Rick Stelmaszek had been advised his contract was not being renewed. My immediate reaction, via Twitter, was something to the effect that blaming the Twins’ problems on Stelly was comparable to blaming the Titanic’s problems on the guy who painted the hull of the ship. Based on what I read of others’ comments, I wasn’t the only fan who felt that way.
     
    But, as we now know, the Twins gave more of the coaching staff similar messages. Jerry White and Steve Liddle were also not renewed while Scott Ullger and Joe Vavra were assigned instructional duties. Only Rick Anderson survived the purge and Andy got just a one-year reprieve. Of course, Ron Gardenhire himself has one more year on his contract and he’s being allowed to continue in his role, at least for now.
     
    While the media was initially assuming (or at least speculating) that Ullger and Vavra would remain on the Major League staff, both coaches were listed as minor league instructors on the Twins’ official website. Their situations have been clarified apparently and both will remain with the Major League club, which disappoints me a bit. I don’t necessarily think Vavra has done a bad job as the Twins’ hitting coach, but how easy will it be for a new coach to establish himself with the hitters with Vavra still in the clubhouse?
     
    What this all means is that the Twins have three open coaching positions to fill in their Major League dugout and while the Twins haven’t announced who would be filling those positions, it’s pretty clear who will be making the decisions. While most MLB managers are given a great deal of latitude in terms of assembling their own coaching staffs, clearly Gardenhire is not the primary decision maker this time around. He was on record recently as saying he wanted to keep all of his coaches, but General Manager (without the “interim”) Terry Ryan pretty much put an abrupt end to that possibility.
     
    Instead, Gardenhire and Anderson will have three new faces surrounding them next season and two of those new faces are likely to be Gene Glynn and Bobby Cuellar, who are very definitely potential replacements for Gardy and Andy should the team’s performance once again fall below expectations in 2013.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/GardenhireBrunansky2012.jpg
    Will these two be seeing more of one another in 2013? (Knuckleballs photo)
     
    The purge also could make room on the Major League staff for former Twins star Tom Brunansky. Bruno was hired to coach hitting for the Twins Gulf Coast League rookie team in July of 2010. A year later, he was the hitting coach at AA New Britain and this past season he moved up to AAA Rochester. His coaching abilities have not gone unnoticed, obviously, and apparently they’ve been noticed beyond just the Twins organization. Speculation has been that if the Twins don’t find a way to promote him, other organizations will and the Twins are likely lose him.
     
    Ryan has indicated a desire to add a Spanish-speaking coach to their Big League staff since a number of MLB-ready players do not speak much English. That might bode well for Cuellar’s chances, but one has to wonder just how much help he’d be with communication issues during ballgames from his perch in the bullpen. Personally, I’d like to see AA hitting coach Rudy Hernandez considered for one of the openings. I’ve heard that players coming through New Britain speak very highly of Hernandez. Promoting him to the Twins would allow them to give Brunansky an opportunity to actually manage a year in the minor leagues, which might not be a terrible idea.
     
    I’ve heard a lot of comments about how it isn’t fair that the “lesser coaches” got the boot while Gardenhire, Anderson and even Ullger and Vavra (since they’ll still be with the Twins) survived. Frankly, that’s true. It isn’t fair. But this isn’t about “fair.”
     
    Baseball coaches at the professional level all know that their jobs are only as safe as the team’s performance on the field. They work under relatively short term contracts and they all know those contracts are subject to not being renewed for any reason. In this case, the primary reason Stelly, White and Liddle didn’t have their contracts renewed was more about Terry Ryan’s desire to bring a new group of coaches in to the clubhouse than any real or perceived performance issues on those coaches’ parts. I think it’s safe to say Jerry White didn’t cost the Twins too many games this season. Ryan needed to create three vacancies to create room for his guys, pure and simple.
     
    I’m fine with these moves, both with the coaching changes and with retaining Gardenhire and Anderson, for now. But my being fine with them is conditioned on these moves not being the last bold moves Ryan makes this offseason. In fact, if March rolls around and the coaching changes are considered to be even close to the biggest moves he’s made, I’ll be well beyond just very disappointed.
     
    Mr. Ryan, you have gotten our attention. Now show us what you do for an encore… and it had better be good.
     
    - JC
  16. Jim Crikket
    The Cedar Rapids Kernels held a press conference Wednesday to introduce their new Major League affiliate, the Minnesota Twins. It was actually more of a public introduction to which the press was invited, but that was certainly the right approach by the Kernels. Affiliation changes are big deals in the local communities and when your organization hasn’t had a change in 20 years, it’s an even bigger deal.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/KernelsTwins-300x168.jpg
    (Image: Kernels.com)
     
    I would have liked to attend, dressed head to toe in Twins gear like many of the crowd gathered in the Kernels’ conference room, but my schedule didn’t really allow for it yesterday. My conflicting meeting did end early enough for me to tune in to the live streaming feed being broadcast online by one of the local media outlets, so I did get to see some of the comments from the Twins’ Bill Smith and then most of the questions being fielded from media and the public by Smith and Jim Rantz.
     
    For a good sense of how the press conference went and the enthusiasm expressed by pretty much all in attendance, from the Kernels, the Twins and the public, check out Jeff Johnson’s report at the Cedar Rapids Gazette’s website. There’s a video clip, as well. Jeff covers the Kernels beat for the Gazette (as well as the local Junior Hockey League team, the RoughRiders), so some of you might want to start following Jeff via the usual social media outlets.
     
    I admit that I have reasons for being happy about this affiliation that go beyond the obvious advantages for the Kernels and 99% of the baseball fans in the area. Yes, the Twins farm system is stronger than the Angels right now and probably will be so for quite a while. The Twins build their MLB team from within, while the Angels have become one of the richest teams in baseball and will likely continue to build by buying free agents and supplement them with the occasional super-prospect they uncover, such as Mike Trout.
     
    If you run a minor league team, you’re better off with a MLB affiliate committed to drafting and developing talent. of course, we could debate how well the Twins have been doing that the past few years, but let’s do that another time. The fact is, that’s their model. So make no mistake, this is a huge “win” for the Kernels and we congratulate their Board and GM Doug Nelson for getting this deal done.
     
    The Twins have a good fan base in the area and this deal clearly makes those of us who are members of that base happy. That should translate in to a few more butts in the seats at the local ballpark, but not nearly as many more as having a competitive team on the field would account for. From that standpoint, the Twins’ timing couldn’t be better. It would be almost impossible for them to send a team to Cedar Rapids next season that would lose more games than the team the Angels sent this season. Their 53-86 record was by far the worst in the Midwest League.
     
    There’s been a lot said and written about how much better next year’s team is likely to be and the Twins brass certainly has brought up the success that their Appy League team in Elizabethton had in 2012 as evidence that expectations should be high in Cedar Rapids next year. That’s fair and I, too, believe the team has the potential to be very good.
     
    But before we order MWL championship rings quite yet, Kernels fans (and Twins fans, too) need to keep one often-overlooked fact in mind. There’s a reason Elizabethton wins a lot and that players who move from E’town to Class A sometimes don’t look as good as hoped right away.
     
    Those players are skipping a level of competition in the process.
     
    No, they aren’t skipping a level within the Twins organization, but there is a whole level of minor league ball that the Twins have elected not to have an affiliate in and that’s “Class A-short season.” Many of the players that Max Kepler, Byron Buxton and their friends were up against this year will be sticking around extended spring training for their respective clubs and then playing in the NY-Penn League or Northwest League next summer, while many of the Elizabethton players are skipping straight to Cedar Rapids in April.
     
    I don’t necessarily think there’s anything wrong with the Twins’ approach, but I’d point out that it does fly in the face a bit of the perception among many fans that the Twins don’t push their players through the system quickly. That case might be made for some guys after they reach the full-season minor league level, but not so much before that. Of course, we also know that guys do stick around E’town for more than one season at times, too, but that still means those players have faced somewhat lesser competition levels by the time they reach the MWL.
     
    Just sayin’ there’s more to the issue than what we see on the surface sometimes and while I’m anxious and excited to see the team the Twins put on the field in Cedar Rapids next season, I’m not expecting them to go undefeated or anything.
     
    But, as I said, I have other reasons for liking this match-up between Minnesota and my home town team and they are admittedly very selfish reasons.
     
    First, obviously, it gives me more stuff to write about at Knuckleballs. Don’t worry, this will not become an “all Kernels, all the time” blog. It has been, is, and will continue to be primarily a Twins blog. But we’ve always reserved the right to write about whatever we darn well please, Twins-related or not. That’s why you’ve had to put up with me writing about the Kernels before… and the Hawkeyes… and Arlo Guthrie’s “Alice’s Restaurant.” But, yeah, I’ll clearly have a much better excuse to write more about the Kernels next season now that they’re part of the Twins family. How much more remains to be seen, but I’ll certainly mention them from time to time (that’s me… the king of understatements).
     
    But, speaking of my Alice’s Restaurant rant from a ways back, here’s my REAL selfish reason for wanting this relationship: I have come to believe that this affiliation is my last-best hope of ever seeing Twins baseball on cable television in Cedar Rapids. In fact, if I HAD been at the press conference Wednesday, I probably would have asked the Twins crew if there was any chance this deal might nudge Fox Sports North and Mediacom together to the point where FSN would at least be an option on the local cable system.
     
    So, imagine my pleasure when someone in the crowd asked pretty much that exact question.
     
    Of course, I was less impressed with the Twins response, but hey… I’m not giving up hope. Rome wasn’t built in a day and signing an affiliation agreement won’t make Eastern Iowa a full-fledged member of “Twins Territory” overnight. I’m a patient man. (Stop that laughing, right now!)
     
    While the Twins people did give the same standard, “that’s out of our control,” response to the television question that their President, Dave St. Peter gave to me last winter, they did mention a few other ways that they plan to work on as initial steps to make us all feel like part of the Twins family.
     
    For instance, it sounds like Cedar Rapids may well get a stop on the Twins Caravan in January. That’ll be nice. I’ve never made the effort to drive a couple hours north to Mason City or whatever border community the Twins have ventured in to previously, but they do sound like fun events. I would expect a very big crowd in CR for that if/when it comes to pass.
     
    By the way, I believe Kernels staff will also be set up at Twinsfest in January, so if you attend, make sure you stop by and say hi. Doug and his folks are a great group of hard-working people that I’m sure you’ll enjoy getting to know. (Tell them I said that, will ya? I could use the brownie points.)
     
    The Twins reps also alluded to making efforts to find a local radio affiliate to carry Twins games on the radio. They mentioned also that they’re excited about the fact that all of the Kernels games are carried on the radio and that Twins fans everywhere will be able to catch those games online. In addition, those of you who are blessed to be in an area that does carry FSN, it sounds like you may actually get to watch a few Kernels games on FSN next summer.
     
    Honestly… I think that’s great. Good for all of you. But you have to admit that it’s ironic (or, to my mind, moronic) that you folks in Minneapolis may well have more opportunities to see Kernels games on your televisions than I’ll have to watch Twins games here in Cedar Rapids, because of the MLB blackout of the Twins on MLB.tv, etc. But that’s all I’ll say about that… today.
     
    For now, I’ll just say it feels good to be at least one step closer to having my home town become a real part of Twins Territory. Thank you and congratulations again to the Kernels organization, as well as the Twins.
    I’m ready for spring training to begin.
     
    - JC
  17. Jim Crikket
    After weeks of speculation, a press conference has been scheduled for 1:30 Wednesday to announce that the Cedar Rapids Kernels will become the new Class A affiliate of the Minnesota Twins for the next four years. Twins officials toured the Kernels facilities Monday afternoon and met with the CR Board of Directors later that day.
     
    The Twins, who have been sending their Class A prospects to Beloit for the past eight years, had been rumored to be favoring a move to Cedar Rapids for several weeks. Given that the Twins brass showed up for a meeting almost immediately after the two sides were allowed, by MLB Rule, to even communicate with one another, those rumors turned out to be well-founded.
     
    At the same time, the Kernels were looking for a fresh start with a Midwestern Major League affiliate after notifying the Angels that they would be ending their 20-year affiliation with that organization. Cedar Rapids is the closest Midwest League city to the Twin Cities and, while there's a sizable Twins fan base in Eastern Iowa, there certainly is potential for the Twins to expand their media presence in the area.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/KernelsLogo.jpg
     
    Beyond geography, however, the two organizations are viewed as a good fit on a number of other levels. Both the Kernels and Twins emphasize the value of community involvement by their players. Twins fans are certainly familiar with the value that organization puts on having their players get involved any number of local charities and causes. The Kernels will prove to be a good training ground for their prospects in this regard, as evidenced by their Summer Reading Program. The Kernels also have a significant “host family” program, which allows players to save money by living with local families during their stay in Cedar Rapids.
     
    The reason for the Twins ending their relationship with the Beloit Snappers is widely believed to center on issues involving the facilities there. Pohlman Field is one of the older ballparks still utilized by a full-season affiliated minor league team and efforts over the past decade or more to get funding for a new ballpark in or near Beloit seem to have lost any momentum they might once have had. After eight years, the Twins apparently did not see the situation improving any time soon.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/PerfectGameFieldOverhead.jpg
    Overhead view of Perfect Game Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Cedar Rapids (Photo: Kernels.com)
     
    The Kernels are community-owned, with a Board of Directors essentially operating as the organization's owners. They have played their games at Perfect Game Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium since it opened in 2002. It was built on the site of their “old” Veterans Memorial Stadium. Next summer will be the Kernels' 12th season in the facility. There are a number of newer ballparks in the Eastern Division of the Midwest League, but among the Western Division locations, no city has a newer ballpark than Cedar Rapids. Peoria opened O'Brien Field in 2002, as well. (Though not new, the ballparks in Appleton WI and Davenport IA have both undergone major renovations in recent years.)
     
    This will be the first affiliation between the Twins and Cedar Rapids. In the past, the Twins have sent their Class A prospects to Midwest League teams in Wisconsin Rapids WI, Kenosha WI (which moved to Ft. Wayne IN while affiliated with the Twins) and the Quad Cities (Davenport IA) prior to Beloit.
     
    Cedar Rapids Baseball has a long history extending back to the 19th century when Hall of Fame manager John McGraw played for the local team. Since the establishment of today's MLB/MiLB affiliation-based relationship, Cedar Rapids has hosted minor leaguers sent by the Astros, Cardinals, Giants, Reds and Angels. Going back further, CR also had agreements with the Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Indians, Milwaukee Braves and Brooklyn Dodgers. Former Twins John Rosboro, Chili Davis and Les Straker once called Cedar Rapids home, as did current Twins infielder Alexi Casilla.
     
    For more information about the Cedar Rapids' minor league organization, click on the following links to posts at Knuckleballs last month that covered CR Baseball's history and an interview with Kernels General Manager Doug Nelson. Of course, there's also a wealth of information about the Kernels, including their 2013 schedule, at their own web site.

    - JC
  18. Jim Crikket
    Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press posted a column (click here) with a number of quotes from Twins president Dave St. Peter concerning the possibility of the Twins locating a minor league affiliate in St. Paul, now that the city has funding assured to move forward with building their new stadium. The stadium is being built to Class A standards (which basically deal with things like clubhouse and training facilities and a certain minimum seating capacity).
     
    St. Peter's quotes and summary:
     
    1) "I would certainly never say never to that... But I certainly don't anticipate that being reality over the short term... Certainly in the next two to four years, I think it would be very unlikely that that would happen." This makes sense because the stadium won't be ready until 2015 and the Twins will be entering in to a new player development contract (PDC) with another Midwest League team next week which will have either a 2 year term or a 4 year term. Assuming the Twins don't end up renewing with Beloit, it's most likely going to be a 4 year term. It would be unusual for a first agreement with a new city to be just two years... those affiliates are not going to want to have to go through the process of finding a new partner again just 2 years down the road.
     
    2) "The reality is that a lot of things would need to happen for that even to be considered." He goes on to state that the biggest factor would be the territorial rights that the Twins own. No affiliated minor league team can set up shop within a certain distance of the Twins' territorial rights without the Twins' permission and St. Paul is definitely inside the restricted territory. I'm really not so sure that's the biggest factor, however. The Twins could give approval conditioned on the minor league team remaining affiliated with the Twins. This is the deal Dayton has with the Reds, from what I've read. That's why, even though Dayton's PDC with the Reds has not yet renewed this year, there's no chance Dayton could sign with another MLB team even if they wanted to.
     
    It seems to me that the bigger issue for a possible St. Paul affiliate is that neither the Twins, nor the Saints, nor anyone else can just say, "we're going to do this," and make it happen. Existing affiliated minor league teams are assured affiliations under MLB rules and nobody can just tell the Midwest League they're going to put a team in St. Paul. There are really just a couple scenarios that could result in a Twins MWL affiliate in St. Paul (forget about a AA or AAA team... There isn't a AA league anywhere near the midwest and even the new stadium doesn't meet AAA minimum standards, which require a 10,000 capacity stadium, at a minimum):
     
    For a NEW team to be awarded to St. Paul, the MWL would have to petition baseball to be allowed to expand and it would have to be by two teams to remain an even number. Since every MLB team already has a full season Class A team, expansion won't happen.
     
    Someone could buy an existing MWL franchise or at least convince owners of a current MWL franchise to relocate to St. Paul. They would have to give 18 months notice of intent to relocate. But the real problem is finding a franchise willing to relocate. The MWL has a lot of newer stadiums and teams are generally doing OK financially where they are. There are a few older ballparks that could certainly stand to be replaced, but those teams are pretty much all community owned, I believe. The teams in Beloit, Clinton and Burlington, for example, aren't going to relocate or sell out because, even if attendance isn't huge, they're at least breaking even financially. Peoria, if they did decide to sell or be relocated, would almost certainly move to another central Illinois community. (There are a number of Frontier League team owners that would probably welcome the opportunity to become affiliated minor league team owners.) There really don't seem to be franchise options available for a possible move north.
     
    Finally, even if these obstacles were overcome, the MWL itself would have to approve a St. Paul location. Could that happen? Yes, but it's far from certain. The league rejected an ownership group that wanted to place a team in Marion IL (southern tip of IL) back in 2005-06 somewhere because Marion was far enough outside the league's current footprint that the increased travel costs for other MWL teams would be significant (and those costs are paid by the minor league team, not the MLB affiliate). The league has subsequently admitted Bowling Green KY, but it wasn't a slam dunk. BG was essentially a "transfer" from the South Atlantic League so an affiliated minor league team already was located there. Even then, it was resisted by some members of the league. Scheduling also becomes a problem because players must be given off-days any time they have to travel by bus more than 500 miles and about half the MWL locations would exceed that distance from St. Paul.
     
    In the end, if I were the Twins, I'd certainly like the idea of putting an affiliate in St. Paul so I'd be saying the same things St. Peter is. But when he says, "...a lot of things would need to happen for that even to be considered," he ain't lyin' because it's not a decision the Twins can unilaterally make and almost all of the parties that would have to give approval have strong incentives not to.
     
    - JC
  19. Jim Crikket
    This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.
     
    I’m kind of tired of reading and hearing about Stephen Strasburg and the decision by the Washington Nationals to shut him down for the season. That being the case, I’m not sure why I’m choosing now to actually write about him. But I am.
     
    I suppose the reason is that I’ve been trying to put myself in the shoes of those directly and indirectly involved with the decision to put an end to the hard-throwing phenom’s season because he’s reached what seems to some to be an arbitrarily reached innings limit in his first full season following “Tommy John” surgery. I find the exercise of shoe-filling to be helpful when it comes to second-guessing the decisions of others. Sometimes, it’s pretty easy to know how I would feel and what I would do. Sometimes, not so much.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Strasburg_PatrickReddington-300x292.jpg
    Have a seat son… for the rest of the season (Photo: Patrick Reddington/Federal Baseball)
     
    If I’m Stephen Strasburg, 24 year old pitcher, living my life-long dream of playing Major League Baseball, with a record breaking (for a draftee) $15.1 million 4-year contract in my pocket assuring me of being able to live comfortably for the rest of my life, and the competitive juices flowing through my veins that have driven me to reach this level, then I want to friggin pitch! Are you kidding me? My team is about to make the playoffs for the first time in the franchise’s history and the first time in my adopted home city since most likely before my grandfather was born and now I’m not going to be there for the end of the ride? You gotta be kidding me!
     
    If I’m Scott Boras, Strasburg’s super-agent, I’ve got an investment to think about. Yes, I made a couple nickels off that $15+ million contract, but this is a pitcher who, if he hit the free agent market today, would easily bring in ten times that figure. Who knows how much he’ll be worth by the time he actally has enough service time in to hit the open market? It’s understandable that my client is focused on what he’s missing out on now, rather than on his future career and the earnings that come with it. It’s my job to focus on that for him. Of course I want to avoid risking career threatening injury that could come from throwing too many innings too soon and I’ll use every bit of influence and leverage I have to protect this investment.
     
    If I’m Mike Rizzo, Nationals General Manager, I’ve got an investment to think about, too. But it’s not quite as cut and dried for me as it is for Mr. Boras. Somehow, I’ve got to balance protecting the $15+ million asset I’ve already put in to Strasburg (and, if you believe the comments made by Boras in this Washington Post article, I also need to balance my relationship with Boras), with the need to not totally alienate my team’s fan base. This is a fan base that is starved for success they’ve never… ever… felt. If I screw this up and the fans stay away from the ballpark next year, I won’t have to worry about this team’s future, because someone else will have my job. On top of that, I’m risking my relationship with a clubhouse full of players that are seeing me take away a key component of their team just three weeks before the postseason begins. (Then again, a big chunk of that clubhouse seems to be represented by Boras.)
     
    If I’m a Washington Nationals fan, how do I feel? My chosen team is thissssssss close to the brass ring and Strasburg is a big reason “we” are in this position (make no mistake, as a fan of a team with the best record in baseball, I’m identifying myself with that team, so it’s all about what Rizzo is doing to “us”). Maybe if I were a Yankees fan (God forbid) and felt that sense of entitlement that comes from buying enough talent every year to almost assure my team of making the playoffs, I would have a longer term view of things. But in a town that hasn’t seen postseason baseball since 1933, this is a tough pill to swallow. On the other hand, it’s not like Strasburg is the only pitcher the Nats have. In fact, he’s arguably been among the least effective members of the rotation in recent weeks. But still…
     
    The fact is, as Twins fans, we may get the opportunity to find out exactly how we would feel if we filled the shoes of Nationals fans. Of course, we’d have to get pretty lucky.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Gibson_KevinPatakyMiLBcom-300x168.jpg
    Kyle Gibson (Photo: Kevin Pataky/MiLB.com_
     
    You see, the Twins have a young pitcher named Kyle Gibson that they think a lot of and he had TJ surgery right about one year after Strasburg did. He’s thrown a few innings late this year in the minors and he’ll pitch some more in a fall league. But before Opening Day, 2013, the Twins will need to come up with a plan for Gibson.
     
    I’m not sure how the Twins will approach Gibson’s season, but I’m hoping they’re a bit smarter about it than Rizzo, Boras and, yes, even Strasburg himself, were about their situation this year.
     
    See, I don’t really have a problem with limiting Strasburg to 160-ish innings, in accordance with his doctors’ recommendations not to overwork the recently repaired elbow. In fact, I find it refreshing. I would think that any fan, especially one who cringes whenever an old schooler clearly thinks a WHIP is something Indiana Jones carries and a K/9 is a police dog, would applaud the Nationals’ willingness to apply modern medical philosophy to Strasburg. I do, however, have a problem with them being stupid about how they applied that innings limit.
     
    No matter who’s shoes I put myself in, I keep coming back to one thing.
     
    If you’re dealing with a guy who’s going to pitch in the minors or if you absolutely know you’re MLB team is going to suck, sure, just send your guy out there for 160 innings and shut him down. But if you are talking about, thinking about, or even just giving lip-service about being competitive, why the hell do you even think about putting your guy in the rotation before May 1 (and probably a couple weeks later, to be safe)?
     
    No matter which one of the roles in this little melodrama you step in to, wouldn’t it occur to you that it would be far more important to have your ace available for a stretch drive and the postseason, than to have him throwing in April’s potentially chilly evenings? Yes, games in April count as much as games in September, but games in October count a hell of a lot more than games in either of those months!
     
    The Nats have provided a service to the rest of Major League Baseball, I suppose. They’ve made a mistake smarter GMs can learn from. In the future, any GM who doesn’t hold back his tender-elbowed pitcher at the beginning of the season and thus is forced to shut him down just when things get interesting will be known to have “Strasburged” his pitcher… and there’s really no excuse for another pitcher to ever be Strasburged again.
     
    So watch closely this spring, folks. Follow along to see if Kyle Gibson starts the season in the Twins rotation or spends a month or so back in Fort Myers just keeping his arm warm until May rolls around. At the very least, he should spend a month or more in the bullpen, allowing him to stretch his innings through the full season without overworking that repaired elbow.
     
    We can expect the Twins front office to tell fans they believe the Twins will be competitive in 2013. But if Kyle Gibson is in the rotation to open the season, we’ll know the truth… that the front office does not expect their team to contend in 2013, so they’re willing to Strasburg Gibson.
     
    Either that or they’re just being as stupid as the Nationals.
     
    - JC
  20. Jim Crikket
    This article was originally published on Monday, Sept. 10, at Knuckleballsblog.com.
    It was with much fanfare that Major League Baseball announced a new, slightly expanded, postseason format as a part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. It was reportedly solely due to the will of Commissioner Bud Selig that a way was found to implement the new format for the current season, rather than waiting one more year, when the leagues would be balanced and the spacing of postseason games could more easily be adapted to the format.
     
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/MLB-Playoff-graphic.jpg
    Image: MLB.com
     
     
    So what was the big deal? Is it really that important to the fans? I suppose that depends on the fan base you talk to. Most Twins fans probably don’t give a damn, since nothing short of a high school basketball tournament format where everybody automatically gets to play at least one game would help the Twins make the postseason this season.
     
    But what effect is the new format having elsewhere in baseball? The argument that supporters of the new format (including myself) made was that adding one more Wild Card spot in each league and making the two WC teams play a single win-or-die play-in game would keep more teams in contention later and therefore keep more fans in more cities engaged during September, when MLB tends to start hemorrhaging fans who turn their attention to football if the local MLB team has fallen out of contention. The single play-in game would also motivate teams to win their own division, rather than just settle for the Wild Card and coast through the final couple weeks of the season once that much was assured.
     
    I thought this might be a good time to take a look at whether those arguments are holding up as we enter the final three weeks of the regular season.
     
    Frankly, in the American League, I’m not sure the new format is having much, if any, effect. That’s primarily due to the AL having three highly contested division races, which certainly doesn’t happen every year. The top five non-division-leaders are also relatively closely packed together, so whether they were clawing for one WC or two, the fans in all five cities would probably be remaining engaged. Even Detroit, which would sit six games back in the WC standings and trailing four teams in the old format, remains in the thick of things since they’re only two games out of the Central Division lead anyway.
     
    In other words, whether under the new format or the old, the same eight AL teams are in contention and nobody would have the kind of lock on a playoff spot that would have allowed them to coast toward the finish in the old format.
     
    But in the National League, things are more than a bit different.
     
    As of Monday morning, all three current division leaders have healthy gaps between themselves and their nearest competitor. Washington and San Francisco have 5.5 game leads and Cincinnati has an 8.5 game lead. On top of that, Atlanta has a similar 5.5 game lead over the next non-division-leader, St. Louis. In other words, under last year’s format, we’d be coming pretty close to declaring the NL playoff bracket to be set.
     
    The Dodgers would not only trail the Giants by 5.5 in their division, but they’d be seven games out of the Wild Card race. The Pirates would be 8 games back and no other team would be within 10 games of a WC spot.
     
    If the Braves could maintain that kind of lead over the others, they’d have limited incentive to try to close the gap on the Nationals, knowing they’d enter the playoffs on equal footing with the three division winners.
     
    But these teams are not playing under the old format.
     
    In the new format, the Cardinals, rather than having their postseason hopes being on life support, are currently claiming the second WC spot in the NL. Not only that, but the Dodgers are just 1.5 games behind St. Louis and the perennial also-ran Pirates are just a game behind the Dodgers (and just 2.5 out of the final WC spot).
     
    Even the Brewers, Phillies and D’Backs, who would all be around a dozen games out of the WC race in the old format, are still hanging on to hopes with deficits half that size this year.
     
    But that’s not all.
     
    If the Braves want to avoid having to endure a single play-in game, they need to pull out all the stops and try to catch up to Washington… and the Nationals can’t just sit back and figure it really doesn’t matter if the Braves catch them or not. It matters! And while the Reds may be coming close to having their division title locked up, the Giants can’t afford to take their foot off the gas pedal and risk letting the Dodgers steal the NL West from them, either.
     
    If you look at the NL schedule of games on any given day, you would have to try very hard to find a single game with any kind of playoff ramifications under the old format. This year, there are probably at least 4-5 games every night that have potential postseason impact.
     
    I know there are plenty of people who still don’t see it as “fair” to play a 162 game schedule and have that come down to a single play-in game to qualify for the postseason. Most of those people seem to be managers and players on potential Wild Card teams.
     
    To them, I can only say, if you don’t like it, win more of those 162 games. Win your division and earn the advantage of knowing you’ll have a playoff series, rather than a single game. Earn the right to perhaps set your rotation for the postseason. And if you can’t earn it, if you just aren’t good enough through 162 games to win your division, then maybe… possibly… you might still be allowed a “second chance” play-in game. That’s what a Wild Card spot should be… a second chance for teams that haven’t won anything.
     
    I’m sure the compacted postseason schedule will be kind of messed up this season, but for my money, the new Wild Card format is working just the way I hoped it would. As much as I hate to admit it, this time Bud Selig got something right.
     
    - JC
  21. Jim Crikket
    This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.
     
    If Wednesday night’s Beloit Snappers/Clinton LumberKings game does indeed mark the final time I see a baseball game in person this year, it was a heckuva game to end the season on!
     
    I don’t want to bury the lead, so let’s start by saying the Snappers came out on top in game one of their 3-game playoff series with Clinton, by a score of 8-6. But the score doesn’t begin to tell the story.
     
    Clinton scored twice in the bottom of the first inning, but Beloit got one back in the top of the 2nd. Clinton 2B Dillon Hazlett got that run back for Clinton in the bottom of the 2nd with a solo HR. It wouldn’t be his only dinger.
     
    Beloit scored again in the top of the 3rd to make the score 3-2 Clinton, but the LumberKings tallied another run in the 4th to go back up by 2 runs again. The Snappers closed to within 1 with an Eddie Rosario RBI double. However, when Miguel Sano flied to CF, Rosario tried to advance to third base, but was called out for having left 2nd too soon. Again the LumberKings immediately got that run back in the bottom of the 5th to reclaim a 2-run margin, 5-3.
     
    Rosario struck again with runners on 2nd and 3rd in the 7th with a single to LF. Clinton left fielder Guillermo Pimentel bobbled the ball, allowing the tying run to score, but Rosario was thrown out at 2B by the cut-off man. Still, the game stood tied at 5 runs each.
     
    Kennys Vargas started out the 8th with a double to the LCF wall. JD Williams pinch ran for Vargas and eventually scored on Stephen Wickens RBI single up the middle through a drawn in infield. But in the bottom of the 8th, Hazlett struck again with his second solo HR of the night and the game was tied yet again, 6-6.
     
    In the 9th, the Snappers parlayed an AJ Petterson lead-off single, a Nate Roberts sacrifice bunt, a Clinton error, a couple of wild pitches and an infield grounder in to two more runs. Mason Melotakis gave up a lead-off double in the bottom of the ninth and nearly threw a comeback grounder over the head of Miguel Sano, who had shifted over to play 1B after Vargas’ departure. But Melotakis settled down to get the final out on a fly ball to RF to secure the 8-6 win.
     
    They head home now for game 2 Thursday night and, if necessary, game 3 on Friday.
     
    I was a little disappointed in the size of the crowd at Clinton, but I can’t say enough about how friendly everyone I talked to was. I started the game sitting with a family from Beloit, including a young lady who, it turns out, is one of the Snappers’ batgirls at their home games. Later in the game, I moved out to a picnic area down the left field line and the Clinton fans down there pretty much adopted me for two innings, despite my Twins gear clearly making my allegiances clear.
     
    Clinton’s ballpark is another one of the older stadiums in the Midwest League, but Clinton has at least made obvious attempts to upgrade their facilities. I REALLY enjoyed the old school organ music between and during innings. I didn’t realize how much I missed that kind of thing until I heard it in Clinton!
    Let’s wrap with a few pictures and wish the Snappers the best of luck the rest of the playoffs!
     
    - JC
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/AshfordUnivField.jpg
    Outside Ashford University Field in Clinton
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/LucasKochWheeler.jpg
    Pitching coach Gary Lucas looks on as starting pitcher Jason Wheeler warms up with catcher Matt Koch
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/ClintonBeloitLineups.jpg
    Teams are introduced before the playoff game starts
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/PradaVargas.jpg
    Manager Nelson Prada and runner Kennys Vargas at 3B
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/LeachmanBrito.jpg
    Runner Drew Leachman, who had 3 hits on the night, held on by Clinton SS Bryan Brito
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/WheelerSano2.jpg
    Jason Wheeler pitching with Miguel Sano at 3B
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/VargasPetterson-1.jpg
    Kennys Vargas at 1B and AJ Petterson at 2B
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/AshfordUnivField2.jpg
    View from the left field picnic area of Ashford University Field in Clinton
     
    All photos by Jim Crikket/Knuckleballs
  22. Jim Crikket
    Originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.
    These days, it’s not often that I go more than a couple of days without getting asked whether I think the Twins will be the Major League affiliate of my home town Cedar Rapids Kernels in 2013. When I’m not answering that question, I’m the one asking it of pretty much anyone I can think of who might have some insight.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/KernelsLogo.jpg
     
    At the beginning of August, I was telling people I thought it was about a 50-50 proposition. The Twins and Cedar Rapids make a lot of sense for a number of reasons on both sides. Then again, The Kernels have been affiliated with the Angels for 20 years and that’s a long relationship to walk away from. The Angels have been reported as having indicated a desire to keep the relationship going.
     
    Between early August and a week ago, my hopes for a watching Twins prospects playing for my home town team kept going upward. In fact, just a week or so ago, I was 90% certain that the Twins would be sending their prospects through Cedar Rapids for the next several years.
     
    I kept hearing that it was all but a lock. But I was remaining just cautiously optimistic because you just never know about these things. Weird stuff happens.
     
    Sure enough, in the past week, weird stuff has happened. Stuff that is not good news for a potential Twins/Kernels relationship.
     
    First, you need to understand a little bit about the baseball loyalties in the greater Cedar Rapids area. We sit less than a 5 hour drive from six MLB ballparks. The Twins, Brewers, Cubs, White Sox, Cardinals and Royals are all about the same distance from CR, but the local loyalties are not at all equal.
     
    First, among the group, are the Cubs and it’s really not all that close. Behind the Cubs, come the Cardinals, White Sox and Twins. Which order they fall in would be open to debate, but there’s a pretty strong base of fans for each organization in this area. Next, would easily be the Brewers and an argument could be made that they should be considered near-equals with the three teams above them. Finally, far at the bottom, would be the Royals. To find Royals caps and jerseys around town, you really have to be looking for them.
     
    The Kernels clearly seem to have decided to look in to the possibility of aligning with one of the six MLB teams that are nearby geographically and, if so, have likely already informed the Angels of such. That would be the honorable thing to do, allowing a partner you’ve had a good relationship with to begin thinking about what their options might be on September 16, when teams can start negotiating with potential new affiliates.
     
    A month ago, in looking at the six geographic fits for a new CR affiliate, you would immediately eliminate the White Sox, whose current affiliation with Kannapolis in the South Atlantic League is not up for renewal until 2014 and there’s no indication they won’t remain there in the future. Likewise, the Brewers are signed with with the Wisconsin (Appleton) Timber Rattlers through 2016. The Cardinals and Quad Cities were believed to be happy with one another and an extension was expected. Similarly, Kane County (Geneva IL) was believed to have a solid relationship with the Royals. There were some who weren’t sure the Cubs and Peoria were all that solid, but most people seemed to think they would end up renewing for two more years anyway.
     
    That left the Twins, among the six closest MLB teams, for Cedar Rapids to partner with. It’s a natural fit, beyond just geography. The Kernels are very big on community involvement by their players, with programs in place with local schools, etc. The Twins are also well known for emphasizing community work among their players. It seemed like a match that could last a very long time, which is what the Kernels certainly should be looking for.
     
    Then last week, it all blew up.
     
    On Wednesday, August 22, Chicago Sun-Times reporter Gordon Wittenmyer reported that the Cubs were, “in the process of working out a player development agreement with the Kane County Cougars.”
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/PeoriaLogo.jpg
     
    That little ditty certainly must have set off alarm bells in a number of Midwest League offices and MLB team offices, not to mention the office of the Commissioner of Baseball.
     
    First of all, under MLB Rule 56, teams aren’t allowed to even hint at a new affiliation with any team except the one they are currently working with until September 16. No negotiating, no public comments, nothing. If, indeed the Cubs and Cougars have been “negotiating,” that could cost the Cubs $500,000 and the Cougars $100,000 in fines. In any event, that article apparently caught the Cubs' current affiliate, the Peoria Chiefs, by surprise, as well as Kane County’s current affiliate, the Royals. Both of whom supposedly were expecting to renew their agreements with their current partners.
     
    (Here, I must add, however, that if you’ve had all year to renew an agreement that you want to renew, but your business partner hasn’t done so… I think you probably shouldn’t be too surprised to find out he’s exploring other options.)
     
    Here in Cedar Rapids, where a significant number of the BOD are rumored to be Cubs fans, the news signaled that, whether or not they end up in Kane County, the Cubs may very well be in play. If so, you'd think a large faction of the Board may be likely to want to explore a Cubs/Kernels affiliation.
     
    Personally, I don’t think the Cubs would consider moving their MWL affiliate further away from Chicago. But even if we assume the Cubs do eventually move to the Chicago suburbs of Kane County, that would leave the Royals as another potential geographic fit for the Kernels, in addition to the Twins.
    Still, the Board would be foolish to sign on with the Royals over the Twins, given the significantly larger local Twins fan base, right? Yes, except…
     
    Did you happen to catch the news that St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman dropped during a radio appearance a few days ago? He indicated that he expected news of approval of a new minor league stadium in St. Paul within the next two weeks. But he didn’t stop there. In addition to being the home of the independent (no MLB affiliations) American Association’s St. Paul Saints, Coleman announced the stadium, which could be ready in 2 years, would meet MLB standards for Class A affiliates and he believed it could be used for both the Saints AND a potential Class A affiliate of the Minnesota Twins.
     
    St. Paul would fall a ways outside the existing MWL footprint and since existing MWL teams are guaranteed affiliations for as long as they maintain appropriate facilities and can stay financially viable, there are any number of reasons why a St. Paul MWL team might never happen. But it’s not impossible, so you’d better believe Mayor Coleman’s comments must have gotten the attention of people involved with the Kernels.
     
    As demonstrated by their 20 year history with the Angels, Cedar Rapids is not likely to be interested in being any kind of two, or even four, year “stopgap” for the Twins before seeing them bolt for St. Paul. They should want another long-term relationship with an affiliate and, if so, you can be certain the Twins will be asked about their views on a potential move to St. Paul during their presentation in Cedar Rapids.
     
    So how is this shaping up?
     
    I still see the Cubs as a longshot in Cedar Rapids. They seem intent on moving closer to Chicago, not further away. Might they make a presentation to CR to deflect attention from their premature negotiations with Kane County? Sure. But if you’re a CR Board member I think you have to ask yourself if it’s a good fit. First, can you trust the Cubs not to go behind your back in a couple of years like they did with Peoria? Second, there are rumors that the Cubs require the local affiliate to pay their prospects for “community appearances.” That won’t fly in Cedar Rapids. Still… there may be people who would (foolishly, in my opinion) take the Cubs on any terms, even for just a couple of years.
     
    I see the Twins as back to being a 50-50 proposition and maybe not that high. They are by far the best fit for Cedar Rapids, but if the Twins really are thinking that they would eventually like to place their MWL affiliate in St. Paul (and that may not be a bad decision on their part), I believe they are the kind of organization that would at least be honest with the Kernels in their presentation and admit that’s a reasonable possibility. If that is the case, I think that could chill interest on the part of the Kernels.
     
    If the Cubs do move to Kane County, as it seems they’re intent on doing, and the Twins are not looking for a long-term partner, the Royals become the best bet for Cedar Rapids.
     
    But if the Twins don’t land in Cedar Rapids, then where WOULD they set up shop in 2013?
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/BeloitSnappersLogo.jpg
     
    If they think they’ve figured out a way to clear all the hurdles to get their team to St. Paul in two years, their best decision might be to stay in Beloit for a two-year extension. Otherwise, it sounds like Peoria might be the Twins only option, assuming they want to stay in the MWL’s Western Division. (I should note the Quad Cities and the Cardinals have not yet renewed, so QC could be in the mix, but the Twins relationship there did not end well eight years ago and new QC ownership may not be enough to interest the Twins in going back down that path.)
     
    For months, any time officials of any minor league or Major League team have been asked about possible new affiliates, they’ve refused to go on the record with any predictions (except the Cubs and/or Cougars, apparently). After all the speculation, it looks like we’re all just going to have to wait another month to see where all the chips fall.
     
    However, I’m REALLY bad at waiting, so you shouldn’t be surprised if this is not the last time I post on this topic.
     
    - JC
  23. Jim Crikket
    Originally published at www.knuckleballsblog.com.
     
    It seemed to me like the first game of this Snappers/Kernels series on Saturday night was a long one… and it was. The game took three hours and twenty minutes to play and since the Snappers pretty much dominated the entire game, on their way to a 13-2 rout of their hosts, there really wasn’t enough excitement to make the game feel like it was moving along.
     
    Fortunately, I was in the “all you can eat and drink” picnic area, so I managed to stay well fed and well lubricated.
     
    I also had the pleasure of meeting Mr. Horrorpants and his brother-in-law, who were down from the Twin Cities to check out the Snappers. You should go check out his Twins Daily blog post and his pictures from the night by clicking here.
     
    Nate Roberts went 3-6 on Saturday night and three different Snappers (JD Williams, Tyler Grimes and Drew Leachman) hit home runs. Amazingly, Beloit scored 13 runs while their number 3 and 4 hitters, Eddie Rosario and Kennys Vargas, combined to go 0 for 10 on the night. Cole Johnson gave up 2 runs in his 5 innings of work. Corey Williams threw 3 shutout innings and DJ Baxendale finished off the night with a scoreless inning, as well.
     
    Twins uber-prospect Miguel Sano was not in the lineup Saturday night, but he seemed healthy during pregame workouts, so there seemed little cause for concern. Sure enough, Sano returned to his spot at third base for the game Sunday afternoon.
     
    I’ve been looking forward to seeing Sano and Eddie Rosario in the field during the series to gauge how much they’ve progressed defensively. Through the first two games, however, Rosario hasn’t taken the field. He DH’d on Saturday night and was not in the lineup Sunday.
     
    I’ll say this about Sano, however. He made several plays in the field on Sunday that I don’t believe he would have been capable of making when I saw him here in Cedar Rapids back in April. He may never be another Brooks Robinson at third base, but he has improved this season. If he works hard and continues to improve every season, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of him sticking at the hot corner by the time he’s playing ball at Target Field.
     
    Sano was certainly an offensive star of the game on Sunday. He had four hits in six at-bats, including two doubles and his 27th home run. Vargas and Stephen Wickens both homered in the game, as well.
     
    The game itself was one of the better games I’ve seen in person this season… and I arrived too late to see the first highlight of the afternoon. I was late getting to the ballpark and arrived during the top of the second inning. Moments before I arrived, Vargas got the Snappers on the board with a solo home run that cleared the top of the Kernels’ video board in right center field. I haven’t seen that done in the 11 years the Kernels have been playing in this version of Veterans Memorial Stadium.
     
    The Snappers put up three runs off of Kernels starter Cam Bedrosian and continued to nick a string of relief pitchers. Snappers pitcher Jason Wheeler gave up four runs in his six innings of work before Mason Melotakis came on to throw 1.2 hitless innings. Melotakis was consistently hitting 94 mph according to the scoreboard speed sign. That sign has a reputation for being a bit over 1 mph slower than scouts’ speedguns. Zach Jones came on to relieve Melotakis and three a couple mph harder. Unfortunately for the Snappers, he lacked Melotakis’ control and ended up giving up three runs and sending the game in to extra innings.
     
    Taylor Rogers went 2.1 innings without giving up a run to the Kernels as neither team could push a run across the plate in the 10th, 11th or 12th inning. In the 13th, Wickens lifted a fly ball to the outfield with Nate Roberts on third base. That’s when things got interesting. The throw was on target and beat Roberts to the plate, where Kernels catcher Zach Wright was blocking Roberts’ path… but the ball came out of Wright’s glove… but Roberts went over the top of Wright and never touched the plate… but it took a moment for Wright to get the ball back. Wright and Roberts did a little dance together as Wright attempted to tag Roberts and Roberts attempted to get a toe on the plate. In the end, umpire Dustin Klinghagen declared Roberts safe and the Snappers had the lead.
     
    The weirdness that inning did not stop there. With JD Williams at 3B, the Kernels pitched around Sano, walking him to bring up Kennys Vargas. On a full count, Sano broke for 2B, Vargas struck out and Wright threw to second, attempting to throw Sano out. Williams broke for home, the throw to 2B was cut off and thrown home, nailing Williams at the plate, for one of the more peculiar “strike em out, throw em out” double play I’ve ever seen.
     
    In the 13th inning Tim Atherton walked Wright to start the inning and then threw two wild pitches, moving Wright to 3B. One out later, Drew Martinez singled in the tying run and stole second base. From there, he scored on an Alex Yarbrough walk-off single, giving the Kernels the 9-8 win.
     
    The game, which started a half hour late due to rain, took 4:19 to play.
     
    Quite a game… quite a weekend. And there are two more games left in this series.
     
    With that, I leave you with a few pictures from my weekend at the ballpark.
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/SnappersPepper2.jpg
    Some of the Snappers indulge a game of “pepper” prior to Saturday night’s game.
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/KernelsStadiumPicnic.jpg
    Perfect Game Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium from the left field picnic area
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/WheelerSanoAug2012.jpg
    Pitcher Jason Wheeler and third baseman Miguel Sano
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/BedrosianAug2012.jpg
    Kernels pitcher Cam Bedrosian, son of former MLB pitcher Steve Bedrosian
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/WheelerAug2012.jpg
    Jason Wheeler
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/LeachmanAug1012.jpg
    Snappers first baseman Drew Leachman
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/RosarioCoachAug2012.jpg
    On Sunday, Eddie Rosario got a day off, but did coach first base.
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/MelotakisAug2012b.jpg
    Snappers relief pitcher Mason Melotakis
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/WilliamsAug2012a.jpg
    JD Williams in left field
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/WickensAug2012.jpg
    Shortstop Stephen Wickens flashes a sign to his middle infield partner
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/JonesZAug2012a.jpg
    Zach Jones was hitting 96 mph
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/RobertsAug2012a.jpg
    Leadoff hitter Nate Roberts
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/RodriguezAug2012.jpg
    Catcher Jairo Rodriguez
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/RogersAug2012.jpg
    Relief pitcher Taylor Rogers
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/SanoAug2012a.jpg
    Miguel Sano looks more comfortable at 3B to me.
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/VargasAug2012.jpg
    Kennys Vargas went very, very deep in the 2nd inning.
     
    http://i530.photobucket.com/albums/dd347/JimCrikket/KernelsSnappers/KernelsScorboard.jpg
    The scoreboard tells the story at the end. Oh… and Vargas’ home run cleared the “Perfect Game Field” sign at the top of the scoreboard, which is set several feet behind the 390 ft wall.
     
    I also had a few conversations this weekend with various, “sources close to the Kernels,” as they say in the trade, about the upcoming discussions between the Kernels and various potential MLB affiliates. But we’ll talk about all of that in another post, another time. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
     
    - JC
     
    All Photos by Jim Crikket/Knuckleballs
  24. Jim Crikket
    “Like butterflies with hiccups” is our tagline at Knuckleballs and today it’s a pretty appropriate heading for the following post.
     
    I seem to find myself in a “very little to say about several unrelated things” situation a lot lately. Maybe I’ll make this a quasi-regular thing here. Or maybe this will be a one-time thing. Anyway, there are a few things I’ve read here and there that I feel inclined to comment about. Most are baseball related, but not all.
     
    The Twins
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/P3070002-225x300.jpg Will Nick Blackburn be at Twins Spring Training in 2013?
     
     
    On Monday, the Twins outrighted both Nick Blackburn and Tsuyoshi Nishioka, meaning they both cleared waivers and were removed from the Twins’ 40-man roster. Arguably, they were among the last remaining “scholarship” players on the Twins roster and clearly Terry Ryan finally had seen enough of both of them. I certainly won’t be surprised to see both players invited to Spring Training next year and given opportunities to regain spots with the Twins. Then again, I won’t be surprised NOT to see them in Ft. Myers, either.
     
    With 42 games remaining on their schedule, through Monday night, the Twins are 51-70. That means, in order to improve on their 99-loss record of a year ago, they need to go 13-28 from here on out. A bit more than half of their remaining games are against teams that currently still have some playoff hopes, so winning 1/3 of their remaining games may not be as easy at you’d think it should be. Factor in that the final month’s games will pretty much all include line ups with at least one “September call-up” and the task of avoiding 100 losses gets’ trickier yet.
     
    Still, I’m looking forward to seeing some of the Rochester and New Britain players show us what they can do in a Twins uniform. It will at least give me some reason to pay attention to the games, which I admittedly have struggled to muster much interest in doing lately.
    The Playoffs
    Way before MLB announced its new playoff structure, with 2 wild cards playing a single “play in” game in each league, I was on record here of liking that format. I’ve certainly seen nothing so far this year to change my opinion. I understand that some people (in particular, managers and players) aren’t as enthusiastic about it as I am. But even in expressing their dislike for it, they actually make the exact case FOR the new format. In one of Jayson Stark’s recent pieces over at ESPN.com, he related the following quotes from the Braves’ Chipper Jones:
    “I’m not a big advocate of playing 162 games for a one-game playoff,” Jones told Rumblings. “You could easily see two teams in the same division have the two best records in the league, and one of them has the luxury of waiting a couple of days to play a best-three-out-of-five [series], while the other one has that one-game playoff. And I don’t see that as fair.
    “It’s basically a Game 7, right off the gut,” Jones went on. “It’s win or go home — and three other teams [in that league] get to sit back and watch it. So that’s why, at least for the guys in this clubhouse, we’re putting the utmost emphasis on every game from here on out. For us, these are must-win games the rest of the way, because we don’t want to put all our eggs in one basket, for that one game.”
     
    Exactly, Chipper!
     
    Winning your division SHOULD mean something. It should give you an advantage over a team that just happens to make the playoffs as a wild card for no other reason than that there happens to be an odd number of divisions in each league.
     
    We’re already seeing writers speculate “what if” scenarios where managers may have to decide whether to use a Justin Verlander or Jared Weaver in the wild card game. Unlike many recent years, we won’t be seeing every playoff manager spend the final two weeks more concerned about setting his rotation than winning baseball games.
     
    I have read that the new format meant there weren’t enough “sellers” at the non-waiver trade deadline for all of the potential playoff teams to pick from to help fortify their rosters. Gosh, I guess more teams will just have to try to win primarily with the players that they had on their rosters during the first four months of the season. Such a shame. #sarcasm
    Keith Law on Miguel Sano
    ESPN’s Keith Law got the attention of many of us who pay close attention to the Twins’ farm system last week when he Tweeted that he would be in Beloit over the weekend to watch the Twins’ prospects there. We were all anxious to find out what he had to say about Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, et al.
     
    Law’s Monday post requires ESPN Insider membership to read, so we certainly will respect ESPN’s copyright to the material and not paste all of what he had to say here. In a nutshell, however, Law was impressed with Sano’s offensive talent and potential, but called Sano out for what he termed his “obvious disdain” for playing defense. He went on to compare Sano’s enthusiasm for defense to that of his own daughter’s enthusiasm for cleaning her room. Ouch.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Sano2012g-300x227.jpg Miguel Sano
     
     
    Then again, Law admittedly only watched one game on the Friday night of that weekend.
     
    I have nothing against Keith Law and he may be a pretty good judge of baseball talent. That said, I believe if you’re going to call in to question a young player’s work ethic (which he certainly did in this case), you should provide a little more information concerning the basis for doing so. Was it body language? Did he lollygag around the infield? Did Law speak to coaches, team mates, scouts or front office types?
     
    I’ve seen Sano play 6-7 times this year and will see him some more this weekend. His defensive skills are not good at 3B. This is not news. But if there’s cause to question his work ethic and his interest in improving those skills, that IS news… and I’d be interested in knowing the basis for that conclusion (giving Law benefit of the doubt enough to assume it’s not based on seeing Sano play one game).
    Joe Poz on JoePa
    I’ve made no secret of the fact that I’m a big Joe Posnanski fan. I may have also mentioned at some point that I’ve never been a huge Joe Paterno fan (even before the Sandusky s**t hit the fan).
     
    If you also happen to follow Poz, you are probably aware that at the time of Paterno’s abrupt dismissal as Penn State’s football coach last November, Posnanski had pretty much moved his family to Happy Valley and was spending the better part of a year shadowing Paterno, his family and the Penn State football program as he researched an authorized biography he was writing on JoePa. Talk about finding yourself in the eye of a hurricane!
    In the days and weeks that followed Paterno’s dismissal and, ultimately, his death, Posnanski kept almost completely mum on the subject of the coach. Frankly, I wasn’t even sure if the plans for the book were even going forward. However, now we know.
     
    The book, cleverly entitled Paterno, hits bookstores today (August 21) and excerpts have been in GQ (and on GQ.com) in the days ahead of the book’s release.
     
    I can’t help but feel Posnanski’s in a no-win situation in terms of the public’s response. Based on the excerpts I read, I’m pretty sure that Paterno’s family and defenders will object to much of what’s written and will probably feel betrayed for having allowed Posnanski inside their “circle.” I’m even more convinced that the anti-Paterno crowd will accuse Posnanski of going too soft on Paterno.
     
    That’s enough for today. Maybe I’ll post some sort of “review” after I’ve read Paterno. Almost certainly, I’ll be posting something (a bunch of pictures, if nothing else) during or after the Snappers four-game series with my home town Cedar Rapids Kernels this weekend (the series runs Saturday through Tuesday). Until then, someone let me know if the Twins do anything noteworthy, ok?
     
    - JC
  25. Jim Crikket
    This was originally posed at Knuckleballsblog.com.
     
    I’m not sure any sport has spawned more clichés than baseball. Right now, though, even clichés that are applicable to multiple sports seem to make me think of the Twins.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/cliche.jpg
     
    As I’ve been following the the team lately, I keep hearing various clichés in my mind (“look the ball in to your glove, Nishi.” “Make sure of one, Nishi.”). A lot of them come to mind, however, as I reflect on the entirety of the Twins’ season.
     
    Plenty of discussion in Twinsville recently has revolved around the fact that the Twins’ record since mid-May has been respectable… even slightly above .500 perhaps, depending upon when you start to measure those games in your cherry-picking exercise. I tend to think that kind of exercise is best reserved for the lonely off-season when you're trying to find hope for the future. However, I do declare there were times when I was so lonesome I took some comfort there. (Pardon that obscure Simon & Garfunkel reference. I've been thinking I could probably write an entire post equating being a Twins player to "The Boxer". Another time, perhaps.)
     
    The problem with this cherry-picking, of course, is that Major League Baseball has determined that the schedule shall begin in early April and that games played in April and May count toward each team’s overall record. All the games count the same.
     
    Which brings me back to clichés and just a few that seem to be appropriate to mention at this time, if for no other reason than to serve as a reminder to us… and the Twins… that the games played next April should perhaps be treated with more respect.
     
    It’s a long season.
     


    *Sigh* Yeah… there’s still a lot of season left. Especially when the only suspense left by mid August is whether your team is going to end up losing 100 games.
     
    Every team will win 54 games and every team will lose 54 games. It’s what you do with the other 54 games that matters.
     


    I was tempted to leave this one out. First of all, I don't believe clichés should involve doing math.


    More than that, though, I’m kind of afraid that someone in the Twins organization might take the “every team will win 54 games” part as a challenge and try to disprove it.
     
    You can’t win a Championship in April, but you can lose one.
     


    Yeah. This one we’re certainly familiar with, aren’t we?
     
    It’s not how you start a season that matters; it’s how you finish it.
     


    I call “bull****”.
     
    You need to take the first two months of the season to figure out which adjustments need to be made.
     


    Isn't this what Spring Training is for? Regardless, it really shouldn’t take you two months to figure out that your starting pitching absolutely sucks and try someone else.
     
    There’s plenty of time left, no need to panic.
     


    If the Opening Day starting pitcher next year gets pounded and can’t survive 4 innings, I think it will be perfectly acceptable for Twins fans to commence to panic.
     


    In fact, if the Opening Day starting pitcher is ANY pitcher already part of the Twins organization today, I don’t think we should even be required to wait until the first pitch of the season is thrown before starting to panic.
     
    You can’t rush to judgment.
     


    It’s been two years of absolute failure. Unless significant changes are made, concluding that the 2013 Twins are a bad team on or before Opening Day would not be considered "rushing" to anything.
     
    You have to take it one game at a time.
     


    This is true… but God, that’s often SO painful.
     
    Pitching and defense win championships.
     


    Maybe this is true, maybe it isn’t. But I think the Twins have adequately demonstrated that bad pitching and bad defense does mean no championships, so maybe Terry Ryan should at least give this cliché a little credence.
     
    They’re a better team than their record indicates.
     


    I do think the Twins, right now, are a better team than their record indicates, so maybe this cliché is true at times.
     
    I don’t think it matters, though, because what IS absolutely true is that a team’s record determines where they fall in the standings. So if you give me a choice between a team that’s better than their record indicates or not as good as their record indicates (see: Orioles... or even perhaps the Twins most of the past decade) I’ll take the latter every time. After all, you play to win the game! (how’s that for a cliché?)
     
    They’re still missing a few pieces to the puzzle.
     


    Funny thing about puzzles. If you’re missing corner pieces, it’s sometimes tough to even get to the point where you can figure out which other pieces you’re missing.
     
    The Twins are missing some corner pieces.
     
    There’s a lot of season left.
     


    *Sigh* Yeah… it’s a long season.
     
    - JC
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