Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Boone

Provisional Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    155

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Blog Entries posted by Boone

  1. Boone
    It’s time people start paying attention to Engelb Vielma. Vielma, who turned 21 a month ago, has been the starting shortstop for the Miracle this season. Always known as a top flight defensive prospect, the diminutive Vielma has done little to discourage that perception in his first 2 seasons of professional ball: in the Midwest League in 2014, Vielma posted a .636 OPS (a wRC+ of 84) and so far in 2015 his OPS sits at .648 (wRC+ of 99). Certainly, this represents a modest improvement, but it is nothing to get excited about. However, taking a closer look at Vielma’s monthly splits, it becomes clear that he has made some significant in-season improvements as a hitter.
     
     


     
    The first thing that sticks out is how dreadful Vielma was in April and May—combined his OPS was .463—and how solid he has been since, posting an OPS of over .770 for 3 straight months. But overall, looking at 5 straight months of data like this has some flaws: for one, the sample sizes are relatively small; and two, it’s a little more difficult to pick up on trends patterns. My solution to this is to create 3, 3-month splits (April-June, May-July, June-August), similar to rolling periods used in the financial industry. Let’s take a look:
     


     
    As you can see here, Vielma has made some pretty tremendous strides. This is especially true when looking at his plate discipline: his BB% has increased over each of these splits and his K% has fallen, leading to a consistent improvement in his BB/K ratio. Furthermore, while Vielma only improved modestly in these 3 categories from the 1st split to the 2nd split, he has seen a dramatic improvement from the 2nd split to the 3rd split. And while Vielma’s isolated power has improved less consistently, his OPS has also improved by leaps and bounds.
     
    Overall, Vielma’s numbers have improved—albeit rather modestly—from a year ago. Once again, he is walking more (6.1% to 6.3%) and striking out less (15.5% to 14.6%), which has certainly contributed to the modest increase in OPS (.636 to .649). And while this increase is small (and his power has decreased), it has been done in the context of a much difficult environment for hitters.
     
    Clearly, Vielma has made terrific in-season improvements as a hitter. Combined with his modest overall improvement from a year ago, this suggests that he should be ready to begin 2016 in AA, despite rather mediocre season-long number.
     
    Another important development for Vielma has been his basestealing. As a player who has very limited power—and has shown no signs of developing any more—being able to create extra runs on the basepaths will be necessary for Vielma to establish himself as a valuable offensive player. While I don’t have any statistics regarding Vielma’s ability to take an extra base after a hit, he has shown dramatic improvements as a basestealer this year. In 2014, Vielma stole 10 bases on 16 attempts in 112 games. So far in 103 games this year, he has stolen 29 bases in 39 attempts. Not only has he stolen nearly 3 times as many bases as last season, Vielma has also greatly improved his success rate from a dreadful 62.5% (well below the 2014 Midwest League average of 68%) to a respectable 74% (well above the 2015 Florida State League average of 67%).
     
    With Nick Gordon on his heels and Jorge Polanco ahead of him (not to mention Brian Dozier), Engelb Vielma will have a hard time becoming a starter for the Twins. But as a player who is stellar defensively, emerging as a basestealer, and improving as a hitter, he has firmly established himself as a legitimate prospect worth watching.
  2. Boone
    This is the first part in one I envision being a three part examination of the Twins bullpen. In Part I, I will look at the 2015 Twins bullpen as a whole, and compare it to the other bullpens in MLB. In Parts II and III, I will look at the performance of the individual members of the Twins bullpen and then at several players in the upper levels of the Twins minor league system who could be viable replacement options.
    There are two main features of the Twins’ bullpen so far in 2015: it’s bad, and it’s old. Let’s start off with the bad. Here is a rundown of how our pen is performing in a number of key categories:
     
    ERA: 4.01 (21st in MLB)
    FIP: 4.19 (25th in MLB)
    WAR: .4 (23)
    These numbers make it pretty clear that our bullpen is in the bottom third of the league. Why has our bullpen performed so poorly? The answer, in my opinion, is a combination of a lack of strikeouts and an inability to generate ground balls, which is leading to a high number of home runs. Look for yourself:
    K%: 15.6% (30)
    BB%: 6.6% (2)
    K/BB: 2.34 (22)
    GB/FB: 1.09 (27)
    HR/9: 1.0 (22)
     
    Poor performance in these categories—the three “true outcomes”—makes it pretty difficult to find sustainable success. Therefore, unless the Twins make a dramatic improvement in these peripheral numbers, don’t expect their overall performance to improve.
     
    Now, onto the age. In case you weren’t aware, the Twins have a pretty old bullpen, too. The average age of the members of the Twins bullpen, weighted for innings pitched1, is 30.0 years old. I don’t have numbers for the average age of other bullpens in MLB, but I would be willing to bet that the Twins have one of the oldest bullpens in all of baseball.
     
    To summarize: in case you hadn’t noticed, the Twins bullpen consists of (1) old pitchers who (2) don’t strikeout many batters and (3) fail to generate many ground balls. The result is one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball. Yes, we have a stud closer, but outside of Perkins, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Twins have the worst bullpen in all of baseball.
     
    So why do we care? Obviously, a good bullpen is an important part of a team’s success. But beyond that, having an old bullpen means it’s less likely that our relief pitchers will make significant improvements in their individual performance over the course of the rest of the season. Furthermore, if the Twins do fall out of contention, it would be beneficial, long-term, for the club to give some younger players some experience at the big league level.
     
     
    1: The sum of (each pitcher's age multiplied by the percentage of the bullpen's IP that they have accounted for)
  3. Boone
    Jorge Polanco has been a favorite prospect of mine for several years and at this point he has certainly established himself as one of the best prospects in the Twins system. His discipline at the plate and positional flexibility make him seem like a relatively safe bet as far as prospects go. However, Polanco’s lack of power and speed have prevented him from being viewed as a dynamic prospect; you won’t see him on any top 100 prospect lists. But after 3 steals in four games, is it time to reevaluate Polanco’s base stealing ability? Here is a quick look at Polanco’s performance in terms of stealing bases the last several years:
     
    Year SB SB% SB/162G
    2012 6 67% 19 51
    2013 4 50% 6 115
    2014 17 61% 21 131
    2015 3 100% 162 4
     
    As you can see, Polanco actually stole bases at a solid rate in 2012 and 2014; the outlier in this data set is 2013, when he stole just 4 bases in 115 games. In other words, Polanco might be a better base then commonly believed. However, Polanco’s biggest problem in all of these seasons hasn’t been his raw number of stole bases, but rather his success rate: he has never succeeded in more than 2/3 of his attempts, and even that occurred in a short-season league.
     
    But if we look a little bit deeper, we can identify a little bit more of a trend. Through July of last season, Polanco had stolen 11 bases in 18 attempts. But in August and September, he stole 6 bases in 8 attempts. If we combine 2012, 2013, and the first 4 months of 2014 into one group, and the final 2 months of 2014 with the start of this season into a second group, this is what we see:
     
    SB SB% SB/162G
    21 57% 13
    9 82% 44
     
    This shows a much different story: not only is Polanco stealing bases lots of bases but he is also succeeding at a very good rate; in short, he looks like a very legitimate base-stealer. Admittedly, there are a few problems with this argument. The first is that 34 games is a small sample size. The second is that I “cherry-picked” the sample: if I had included one more or one less month in the second group, Polanco’s performance would appear quite different.
     
    However, there are a few indicators that make me confident that Polanco’s newfound basestealing ability is here to stay. The first is that this trend has been duplicated in his winter league play. Polanco has played for Leones del Escogido of the Dominican Winter League each of the last 2 winters, and he performed as a basestealer the winter following the 2014 season than the winter preceding it: 3-3 in 23 games (21 per 162, 100% success rate) vs. 4-6 in 49 games (13 per 162, 67% success rate). In other words, Polanco’s increased success at the end of 2014 carried over through the winter and now into the spring. Secondly, , even early on in 2014, Polanco was attempting to steal bases at a career high rate: he attempted 29 steals per 162 games in 2012, 11 in 2013, and 35 in 2014. So it seems possible that the there was a concerted effort in 2014 to have Polanco run more, which might reflect optimism on behalf of the Twins organization. Perhaps even more important, is that this trend manifested itself soon after arriving in AA: Polanco stole 7 bases in 10 attempts in 37 total games for the Rock Cats last season. Maybe he picked up a key bit of coaching advice that played a key role in his success.
     
    We’ll have to wait and see if Polanco’s improved basestealing is here to stay. I, for one, think it is. If Polanco can contribute 30 steals at a 75% success rate—which I think is fairly manageable—he will be a much more dynamic prospect and could shoot up rankings next winter.
     
    The next question, of course, is how valuable these steals are. But that’s a question for another day.
  4. Boone
    There have been mixed feelings about Kohl Stewart this season. Some cite his low ERA as evidence that he has been excellent, while other point out his low K-rate and claim that he is struggling. Let’s take a closer look to see which is the case.
     
    A Closer Look
     
    The first thing we must consider is Stewart’s age. A prospect’s performance should never be viewed independently of their age: if a player is old for their level, they should be expected to perform well; conversely, if a player is young for their level, expectations are lower. Kohl Stewart is 19 and is pitching in Single-A. Let’s put that in perspective: he is 3 years younger than the average pitcher in his league; last year, Jose Berrios was 19 in Single-A, and was (I believe) the youngest pitcher in the league for most of the season; Kohl Stewart is currently the youngest pitcher in the Midwest League. Bottom line, Kohl Stewart is really, really young. As a result, we shouldn’t expect him to dominate. This means that if Stewart is in fact struggling, we shouldn’t worry too much; he can repeat Single-A next year and still be one of the younger pitchers in the league. Furthermore, if Stewart is performing well, we should be much more excited1.
     
    Now let’s take a look at his numbers: 2.58 ERA (4th in the league), 1.15 WHIP. You’ve probably seen these numbers. They are very good. One major reason for his dominance is a .268 BABIP (well below the league average of .312). This low BABIP could be a result of poorly hit balls (a good thing) or it could be luck (not so good). However, I have no information on this. So let’s look a little deeper at the three areas I look at most with young pitchers: strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate.
     
    As many have noted, Stewart is struggling to strike batters out; he is striking out batters in 17.2% of plate appearances (6.46 K/9), 18% below the league average of 20.3% (7.9 K/9). However, Stewart’s control has been very good: he is walking batters in 7.2% of plate appearances (2.39 BB/9), 19% below the league average rate of 8.6% (3.3 BB/9). This low-walk rate has balanced out his lack of strikeouts, allowing Stewart to post a slightly above league-average K/BB ratio of 2.39 (the league is 2.36).
     
    The next area I will look at it is Stewart’s ground-ball/fly-ball tendency. According to milb.com, Stewart currently sports a 1.73 GO/AO ratio. This suggests that he is an extreme ground ball pitcher, whereas his 1.24 GB/FB ratio (according to Baseball-Reference) pegs him as more of a moderate ground ball pitcher2. In any case, Stewart appears to be, at the very least, a moderate ground ball pitcher. The importance of this ground ball tendency is easy to see: opposing hitters have a .079 isolated slugging percentage against Stewart, well below the league average of .119.
     
    What it Means
     
    Just looking at Kohl Stewart’s numbers leads to an interesting conclusion: he appears to be the classic “Twins pitcher”: low K-rate, low BB-rate, high GB-rate. Although it would be nice to see Stewart posting higher strikeout numbers, I would argue that a low walk rate and a high ground ball tendency are more important at this stage in his career: you rarely see a fly-ball pitcher become a ground-ball pitcher and given the numerous reports raving about Stewart’s “stuff,” I remain optimistic that he can increase strikeout totals; I would be more nervous if he was walking lots of hitters. If Stewart can continue to generate ground balls, limit walks, and increase his strikeout, he will be poised to become an ace. But even if he doesn’t become a strikeout machine, his excellent control and ground ball inducing abilities at this young of an age should allow him to be an effective pitcher for years to come.
     
    Last year, the Twins limited Berrios to 103 IP. Stewart has thrown just over 70, so only expect him to log about 30 more before the Twins shut him down. Unless he becomes a dominant strikeout machine before the season ends, the Twins will have an interesting decision about where to start Stewart next spring: do they promote him to Ft. Myers and see how he fares or do you hold him back in Cedar Rapids for a month or two until he displays an improved strikeout ability? I would lean towards the conservative approach—after all, Stewart would still be one of the younger pitchers in the league—but hopefully Stewart will finish strong and make that decision for us.
     
     
    1 That being said, a prospect’s age should not enter the conversation when considering whether or not they should be promoted: a player has mastered a level when they have mastered the level, and that has absolutely nothing to do with how old they are. In other words, although we shouldn’t be scared if Stewart is struggling, we shouldn’t promote him just because he’s young.
     
    2 Considering that a higher percentage of fly balls are outs than groundballs, it is surprising that Stewart’s GO/AO ratio is significantly higher than his GB/FB ratio. It is possible that this is the result of an extraordinary number of weakly hit groundballs, or it could be a coincidence.
  5. Boone
    The upper-levels of the Twins minor league system is stocked with relief pitchers performing at a high level. Here is a quick rundown:
     
    Michael Tonkin (AAA, 24)- Tonkin has been arguably the best reliever in the Twins system since the start of 2012. This year in AAA, Tonkin has a 3.08 ERA—nothing special—but his K and BB numbers are excellent: 26 K’s to just 4 BB’s in 26.1 innings. He’s been even better in this department since the start of June: 18 K’s to 1 BB in 18.1 IP. Tonkin has pitched briefly in the majors both this season and last, where he has struggled slightly: in 22.2 IP, he has an ERA of 3.57 to go along with 18 K’s and 9 BB’s.
     
    AJ Achter (AAA, 25)- this is a guy who has drawn plenty of headlines this year, and with good reason. He was promoted to Rochester after 6.2 innings in New Britain, and has since posted a 1.74 ERA in 46.2 IP. His peripherals aren’t staggering—42 K’s and 14 BB’s (8.1 K/9, 3.0 K/BB)—but they are good. It is worth noting, however, that Achter was more dominant early in the season: 24 K: 4 BB in 25.1 IP in April and May, vs. 18 K: 10 BB in 21.1 IP.
     
    Ryan Pressly (AAA, 25)- after a poor showing for the Twins in 2013, Pressly might be a bit of a surprise on this list. His overall numbers very good, but not spectacular: 2.88 ERA, 57 K: 19 BB (3.0 K/BB) in 56.1 innings (9.1 K/9). However, he struggled in April and has been excellent since the start of May. In 45 IP, he has 47 K (9.4 K/9), 9 BB (5.2 K/BB) and a 2.40 ERA. Furthermore, it appears as if the time he spent in the majors led to some major improvement for Pressly, who was never particularly good in the minors. In fact, Pressly is having his best minor league season by far, despite pitching in AAA for the first time. Pressly became a full time reliever in 2012 while pitching in AA, and posted just 21 K:10 BB in 27.2 IP. In other words, he’s striking out 2 more batters per inning while posting a similar BB rate this year.
     
    Deolis Guerra (AAA, 25)- best known for being the only piece from the Johan Santana trade remaining in the Twins system, Guerra missed almost all of 2012 as a result of Tommy John surgery. Strikeouts have never been a problem for Guerra, and that trend has continued this year, as he has struck out 33 in 34.2 IP this year. Walks, however, have been a problem. He has improved slightly in this regard this year, walking 11 batters in 34.2 innings (a respectable 2.9 BB/9) after posting 21 BB in 57.1 IP in 2012 (3.3 BB/9); his BB rate has dropped from 8.6% to 7.6%. Guerra is another guy who has been better since the calendar flipped to May: 27 K 8 BB in 26.2 IP.
     
    Lester Oliveros (AAA, 26)- another guy who missed almost all of 2013 due to Tommy John. Oliveros started the year in New Britain, where he posted a .89 ERA and 36 Ks in 30.1 IP (10.7 K/9); he did, however, walk 14 (4.2 BB/9, 2.57 K:BB). Since his promotion to AAA, Oliveros has 8 K, 2 BB, in 7.1 IP (ERA = 4.91). Furthermore, he has been at his best since the start of June, posting 19 K to just 3 BB in only 14.2 IP across 2 levels (but a ERA = 3.07).
     
    Ryan O’Rouke (AA, 26)- this guy could probably be a lefty specialist for the Twins right now. In 12 IP against lefties, he has just 3 BB and 25 K. You read that right, 25 strikeouts: that’s 18.75 K/9—he’s striking out the opposing batter in 60% of plate appearances. He’s also allowed just 3 hits to lefties: opposing lefty batters are hitting .079/.146/.105 (.252) off him. That’s actually absurd. His dominance of lefties isn’t a new thing: he had 22 K:3 BB against lefties last year in 56 plate appearanes, good for a strike out in 40% of plate appearances (Aroldis Chapman struck out opposing hitters in about 43% of plate appearances in 2012 and 2013, which equated to a 15.5 K/9 during that span).
     
    What it Means Going Forward
     
    I think that most of these players could compete for bullpen positions next spring, if not earlier: they are posting great numbers at upper levels of the minors and are fairly young. Of course relief pitchers don’t make many “Top 100 Prospect Lists,” especially when they’re in their mid-20s. But these players—plus 2014 2nd round pick Nick Burdi—could form the core of a strong—and cheap—bullpen for the next 5 years.
  6. Boone
    Here are three legitimate prospects (all are 1.7 years younger than the average player in their respective leagues, according to Baseball Reference) who, at first glance, appear to be struggling so far in 2014. A closer examination, however, tells a different story:
     
    Taylor Rogers (AA SP)
     

    32.2 IP in 8 GS
    The bad:
    5.36 ERA
    1.53 WHIP

     
    [*]Why he’s better than his numbers:


    The obvious indicator is his 3.50 FIP, almost 2 full runs lower than his ERA; in fact, this difference is the highest in the Eastern League amongst qualified pitchers. Let’s take a closer look:
     
    Rogers is striking out 8.66 per 9 innings (21.3% of plate appearances) and walking just 2.27 per 9 (5.6% of PA), good for a stellar 3.82 K/BB, which ranks him 8th in the Eastern League amongst qualified pitchers. This is a huge step forward from a season ago, when Rogers posted just 5.72 K/9 (15.7%) with a 2.59 K/BB. Furthermore, Rogers continues to keep the ball on the ground, posting an excellent 1.61 GO/AO ratio.
     
    The cause of Rogers’ struggles is two-fold: an extremely high BABIP and a poor strand-rate. Rogers has a .377 BABIP, which is the worst in the EL amongst qualified pitchers, and his strand rate of 61.5% is the 8th worst amongst qualified pitchers.
     
     

    How optimistic should we be?

    Very. Although I wouldn’t expect Rogers to continue to strike out close to a batter per inning, if he continues to induce ground balls at a high rate and limit walks—which I expect him to do—he should have a solid year. And if his increased strikeout rate is here to stay—even if it settles around 7 K/9—then Rogers could become a very intriguing prospect. If his BABIP and strand rate settle down soon, Rogers should merit a mid-season call-up to AAA.
     
    Adrian Salcedo (AA RP)
     

    22 IP in 15 relief appearances for New Britain
    The bad:
    7.77 ERA
    1.86 WHIP

     
    [*]Why he’s better than his numbers:


    Similar to Rogers, Salcedo’s FIP is an immediate indicator of bad luck; he has a FIP of 2.43 for the season, over 5 runs lower than his ERA (this is a staggering figure, as the next highest difference between ERA and FIP for an Eastern League pitcher with at least 20 IP is 3.42, compared to Salcedo’s 5.34). Let’s take a closer look at Salcedo’s numbers:
     
    Salcedo is striking out a whopping 12.27 batters per 9 innings (27.5% of PAs) and is walking just 3.27 (7.3%), good for an excellent 3.75 K/BB ratio. Although he is walking more batters than a year ago, the large increase in strikeouts (up from 8.33 K/9) has led to a slight improvement in his K/BB ratio (up from 3.6 last season). Furthermore, Salcedo has posted an excellent 2.08 GO/AO ratio, even better than the 1.68 GO/AO from a year ago.
     
    The cause of Salcedo’s struggles, similar to those of Rogers, is a high BABIP and a lower strand-rate. Salcedo’s BABIP of .464 is the highest in the EL amongst pitchers with at least 20 IP (the next closest is just .400) and his strand rate is just 51.7%, meaning roughly half of all batters that reach base score; this is the 4th worst rate in the EL amongst pitchers with 20 IP.
     
     

    How optimistic should we be?

    Very. Salcedo is establishing himself as a high-K, low-BB, ground-ball inducing relief pitcher. What more can you ask for? Once his BABIP comes back to Earth, which it will, his strand-rate should increase and his ERA will drop. I expect Salcedo to be another candidate for a mid-season call-up to AAA. It is worth noting that Salcedo was a popular sleeper prospect heading into the 2012 season before injuries limited him to just 30 IP that year.
     
    Max Kepler (A+ OF/1B)
     

    35 games (27 at CF) for Fort Myers
    The bad: .215/.319/.347 for an OPS of .666
    Why he’s better than his numbers:

     
    Kepler has displayed excellent plate discipline, striking out in just 13.5% of his plate appearances (down from 16.3% last year) and walking in 10.6%, which is the highest rate of his career. The result is a BB/K ratio of .79, which is the 13th best in the league, and a significant improvement from a solid BB/K ratio of .56 from last season.
    The main cause of Kepler’s struggles is his .236 BABIP, which is the 6th lowest amongst qualified starters.
     
     

    How optimistic should we be?

     
    I would be slightly less optimistic about Kepler than Rogers and Salcedo. Yes, his BABIP is incredibly low and should rise. Although this figure is certainly a result of bad luck and therefore should be expected to rise, it could also be a result of some underlying problems for Kepler. First and foremost, it is similar to the .254 BABIP of a year ago. Secondly, his ISO of .130 is much lower than his ISO of .189 from last year, which could indicate that he simply isn’t hitting the ball very hard. On the other hand, the Florida State League is notoriously a pitcher-friendly league, and Kepler’s ISO is actually much better (24% better, to be exact) than the league average of .105. In fact, only one player in the league has a higher ISO and BB/K ratio than Kepler. I’m very high on Kepler—he presents a rare combination of plate discipline, power, and athleticism—but I think a full year in A+ would be good for him.
  7. Boone
    Shortstop appears to be the weakest position in the Twins organization. Danny Santana is the closest legitimate SS prospect to the majors. But with a .691 OPS this season and 29 errors already (Alexei Ramirez leads all shortstops with 21), does Santana have a legitimate chance to be a franchise shortstop? Here’s a closer look.
     
    Hitting
    Here are Santana’s numbers the last 3 seasons:
     
    [TABLE=width: 433]


    Year
    PA
    Level
    BB%
    K%
    BB/K
    ISO
    OPS


    2011
    409
    A
    6.1
    24
    0.26
    0.126
    0.676


    2012
    547
    A+
    5.3
    14.1
    0.38
    0.124
    0.739


    2013
    446
    AA
    3.9
    16.3
    0.24
    0.086
    0.691
    [/TABLE]
     
    Santana took a huge step forward in 2012, dropping his K rate significantly (leading to a jump in his BB/K ratio) which allowed him to increase his OPS by 60 points and raise his average from .249 to .286. He also maintained solid power for a SS despite moving to the Florida State League.
     
    However, Santana has regressed this season. He has kept his Ks down, allowing him to maintain his .286 batting average, but his walks have dropped to a minuscule level and his power has disappeared. As a result, his BB/K ratio and OPS have returned to 2011 levels.
     
    That being said, Santana has progressed throughout the season, increasing his walks each month (2 in April, 3 in May, 4 in June, 9 in July). In fact, his 9 walks so far in July are equal to the amount as he had in the first 3 seasons of the month combined. It turns out that Santana is no stranger to mid-season improvements in the month of July. Check out these splits:
     
    [TABLE=width: 395]


    Split
    PA
    Level
    BB%
    K%
    BB/K


    April-June 2011
    258
    A
    5.0%
    22.5%
    0.224


    Post- July 2011
    151
    A
    7.9%
    19.9%
    0.400


    April-June 2012
    299
    A+
    4.7%
    16.7%
    0.280


    Post-July 2012
    250
    A+
    6.0%
    11.2%
    0.536


    April-June 2013
    335
    AA
    2.7%
    15.2%
    0.176


    Post-July 2013
    166
    AA
    6.0%
    18.1%
    0.300
    [/TABLE]
     
    This is rather astonishing. In each of the past 3 seasons, Santana has made a significant improvement in his BB/K ratio starting in July. While his month of July might prove to be an aberration, due to this pattern the past 2 seasons I think it represents a legitimate progression in his plate discipline. If that is the case, 2012 could actually represent a step forward for Santana and he should be ready for AAA at the start of next season.
     
    Basestealing
     
    Danny Santana has great speed, but he has always struggled stealing bases. In fact, between 2010 and 2012, Santana never posted as SB% higher than 65%, and it dropped every year. However, Santana has made a big step forward in his basestealing this season:
     
    [TABLE=width: 256]


    Year
    SB
    CS
    SB%


    2010
    15
    8
    65%


    2011
    24
    15
    62%


    2012
    17
    11
    61%


    2013
    23
    9
    72%
    [/TABLE]
     
    So when did Santana turn a corner stealing bases? The answer, ironically, appears to be during July of 2012. Take a look:
     
    [TABLE=width: 335]


    Split
    SB
    CS
    SB%
    SB/162G


    2011
    24
    15
    62%
    37


    April-June 2012
    9
    7
    56%
    21


    Post-July 2012
    8
    3
    73%
    24


    2013
    23
    9
    72%
    33


    July 2012-present
    31
    12
    72%
    30
    [/TABLE]
     
    Over the past year or so, Santana has looked like a 30SB 70+% guy. Over the past 3 years, just 8 SS have done that even once. And in case you’re wondering, Santana has continued that “every year I improve in July thing”: 9-10 SB in 24 games (68SB/162G).
     
    Fielding
     
    However, defense might be the most important factor for Santana going forward; as jdotmcmahon pointed out a few days ago, great defense alone has made Florimon a valuable player (http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...Pedro-Florimon). Santana has the speed and arm necessary to play short, but he has always been error prone:
     
    [TABLE=width: 172]


    Year
    G
    E
    FLD%


    2011
    78
    27
    0.924


    2012
    85
    18
    0.95


    2013
    107
    29
    0.944
    [/TABLE]
     
    Errors and fielding percentage don’t tell the whole story, but it’s the best we have for minor league players. And as it turns out, Santana’s best fielding percentage of 95% would make him the worst shortstop in all of baseball. To make matters worse, Santana’s fielding percentage has dropped this season so much so that many are questioning whether or not he can stick at short.
    However, Santana’s poor fielding numbers this season are the result of a dreadful start to the year:
     
    [TABLE=width: 152]


    Split
    E
    FLD%


    Games 1-43
    17
    0.919


    Games 44-107
    12
    0.961
    [/TABLE]
     
    Disclaimer: the FLD% is based off of Santana season’s average of 4.86 chances per game.
     
    If we look at the Santana’s past 53 games (which accounts for 57% of his games at SS), he has improved his FLD% from last year’s .950 to .961. Once again, a step in the right direction.
     
    More importantly, Santana was recently named by BA as the best defensive shortstop in AA. Many people on Twins Daily, including myself, have doubted whether or not he deserved such recognition. However, what we should take away from this is that BA believes Santana should be able to stick at SS in the majors. This praise, combined with Santana’s improving fielding percentage, makes me optimistic that he can be an above-average defensive shortstop.
     
    Conclusion
     
    Santana’s low K-rate should allow him to consistently hit in the .280-.285 range, which, combined with his basestealing, would be great for a SS. However, due to his lack of power (which has taken a turn for the worse this season), Santana will have to draw walks in order to post a quality OPS. He has increased his BB-rate during the second half of each of the last 3 seasons. If he can translate that success to the start of next year and continue to build on it, Santana could establish himself as a solid hitting SS at the major league level.
     
    Although Santana’s season numbers for 2013 are discouraging, he has shown signs of progression. Combined with Santana’s history of mid-season improvement, this is a reason for optimism. If Santana can continue to progress as a hitter, fielder, and basestealer, he should be ready for AAA come next April, and might be starting on Opening Day in 2015, when he’ll be 24 all year. That will give Santana the chance to establish himself as the Twins’ franchise shortstop, although several other prospects could come nipping at his heels in the near future (Goodrum, Polanco, Levi Michael, Mejia, and a potential 2014 1st round pick).
  8. Boone
    Here are 4 prospects that are showing major signs of improvement that have generally gone unnoticed.
    JaDamion Williams (LF)
    2012 (A): 9.6%BB 28.3%K .34BB/K .106 ISO 9.6%IFB .651OPS
    2013 (A): 14.5%BB 20.7%K .70BB/K .180 ISO 5.3%IFB .852OPS
     
    JD Williams has made significant improvements in both his BB and K rates, which has allowed him to draw over twice as many BBs per K as a year ago, a staggering improvement. He has also hit for much more power this year, posting a .180 ISO, while cutting his infield fly balls nearly in half. As a result, Williams has increased his OPS by over .200 points to .852, the 9th highest total in the MWL (trailing 3 Twins).
     
    Williams was repeating A ball and at 22 was on the older side for the level, but he was just promoted to Ft. Myers. Although his age will always prevent him from being considered a great prospect, remember that he is a tremendous athlete: he was named the Twins’s fastest baserunner by BA in 2012, only to be unseated by some guy with the last name of Buxton.
     
    Levi Michael (SS)
    2012 (A+): 10.9%BB 16.0%K .68BB/K .065ISO 6-6 SB (8 SB in 162 G) .650OPS
    2013 (A+): 11.3%BB 14.6%K .77BB/K .122ISO 11-12SB (32 SB in 162 G) .708 OPS
     
    Levi Michael has made small improvements in both his BB and K rates, leading to a noticeable increase in his already good BB/K rate. The big changes for Michael, however, is that he is hitting for significantly more power—nearly doubling his ISO—while becoming a legitimate basestealing threat. Whether or not he can sustain these improvements is yet to be seen, but if he can, he could be a dynamic middle infielder. Just 3 middle infielders posted at least 30 steals with an ISO over .120 in 2012: Jose Reyes, Jason Kipnis, and Jimmy Rollins.
     
    Similar to Williams, Michael is repeating a level this year, and as a result isn’t young for his level. It is important to remember, however, that Michael is a former 1st rounder who has a legitimate chance to stick at SS (he was named the best defensive infielder in the system by BA in 2012). If he can play solid defense at short, his .700+ OPS and good speed would make him a quality starter for the Twins.
     
    It is worth noting that Michael is in an unenviable position: Santana and Rosario are blocking a promotion, Aderlin Mejia is competition for playing time, and Polano and Goodrum are nipping at his heels.
     
    Josmil Pinto ©
    2012 (A+): 9.9%BB 16.0%K .62BB/K .178ISO
    2013 (AA): 15.2BB 16.5%K .92BB/K .190ISO
     
    Pinto has kept his K rate constant despite drawing significantly more walks and hitting for more power. His combination of plate discipline and power is incredible (Joey Votto currently has a .86 BB/K with a .188 ISO).
     
    Although Buxton and Sano have received the bulk of the attention (and rightfully so due to their youth and incredible potential), Pinto has probably been the most productive and consistent hitter in the system this year, not named Colabello. Consider his monthly OPS: .975 in April, .936 in May, .857 in June, .972 in 15 games so far in July. That’s consistency. Furthermore, his BB/K ratio has improved every month: .57 in April, .86 in May, 1.06 in June, and 2 so far in July. Oh yeah, in his last 10 game he has an OPS of .943 and an 11:3 K/BB ratio. That’s bordering on absurd.
     
    Pinto’s numbers clearly scream promotion but he probably has to wait for Doumit to be traded.
     
    Trevor May (SP)
    2012: 5.4 IP/GS 4.87 ERA 1.44 WHIP 1.94K/BB
    April: 5 IP/GS 4.62 ERA 1.62 WHIP 1.5K/BB
    May: 5.8IP/GS 3.60 ERA 1.49 WHIP 1.8K/BB
    June/July: 6.4IP/GS 3.43 ERA 1.10 WHIP 3.5K/BB
     
    Trevor May had a very discouraging month of April, posting numbers that were across the board worse than his disappointing 2012, that led to him repeating AA and dropping off of top 100 lists. However, May has improved consistently since then, especially in June and July, where he has posted a 3.5K/BB ratio, which included a stretch of four straight starts with just 1 BB. May’s BB/9 ratio is under 4 for the first time since he made 11 starts in A ball in 2010.
     
    There have been concerns about May’s ability to remain a starter, but as the season has continued he has shown improved ability to limit walks and go deeper into starts. It is important to remember that he is just 3 months younger than Alex Meyer, who is generally considered to be a top 50 prospect. If May can finish strong and continue to improve, he should at least be in the conversation for a top 100 prospect. A promotion to AAA this year will probably depend on whether or not the Twins trade any starters at the deadline.
  9. Boone
    Heading into the 2013 season, there were 5 2B prospects that were generally considered to be among the top 100 in baseball: Jedd Gyorko of the San Diego Padres, Nick Franklin of the Seattle Mariners, Kolten Wong of the St. Louis Cardinals, Jonathan Schoop of the Baltimore Orioles, and Delino DeShields Jr. of the Houston Astros.
    My question is this: how does Eddie Rosario stack-up statistically against these more heavily hyped prospects?
    Rankings
     

    Baseball America
    Jedd Gyorko (2B)- 71
    Nick Franklin (SS/2B)- 79
    Kolten Wong (2B)- 84
    Delino DeShields Jr. (2B)- 99
    Jonathan Schoop- NR
    Eddie Rosario- NR

     
    [*]Baseball Prospectus

    Nick Franklin (2B)- 72
    Jonathan Schoop (2B)- 80
    Jedd Gyorko (3B)- 84
    Kolten Wong (2B)- 90
    Delino DeShields Jr. (2B)- 101
    Eddie Rosario- NR

     
    [*]Sickels

    Jedd Gyorko (2B/3B)- 38
    Nick Franklin (SS)- 40
    Delino DeShields Jr. (2B)- 77
    Kolten Wong (2B)- 85
    Jonathan Schoop (INF)- 102

     
    [*]Fangraphs

    Delino DeShields Jr. (2B)- 52
    Jonathan Schoop (INF)- 57
    Kolten Wong (2B)- 58
    Jedd Gyorko (2B/3B)- 67
    Nick Franklin (SS)- 74
    Eddie Rosario (2B)- 79

     


    Stats
    A
     

    Kolten Wong: Age 20 47 games .335/.401/.510 .911 OPS
    Johnathon Schoop: Age 19 51 games .316/.376/.514 .890 OPS
    Nick Franklin: Age 19 129 games .281/.351/.485 .837 OPS
    Eddie Rosario: Age 20 95 games .296/.345/.490 .835 OPS
    Jedd Gyorko: Age 21 42 games, .284/.366/.389 .755 OPS
    Delino DeShields Jr: Age 18,19 230 games .257/.352/.378 .731 OPS

    A+
     

    Gyorko: Age 22 81 games .365/.429/.638 1.068 OPS
    Rosario: Age 21 52 games .329/.377/.527 .903 OPS
    Franklin: Age 20 64 games .275/.356/.411 .767 OPS
    DeShields: Age 19,20 95 games .276/.375/.395 .769 OPS
    Schoop: Age 19 77 games .271/.329/.375 .704 OPS
    Wong: DNP

    AA
     

    Franklin: Age 20,21 78 games .323/.375/.497 .871 OPS
    Gyorko: Age 22,23 93 games .279/.357/.429 .786 OPS
    Rosario: Age 21 28 games .290/.356/.421 .776 OPS
    Wong: Age 21 126 games .287/.348/.405 .754 OPS
    Schoop: Age 20 124 games .245/.324/.386 .710 OPS

    AAA
     

    Gyorko: Age 23 92 games .328/.380/.588 .968 OPS
    Wong: Age 22 83 games .298/.360/.455 .815 OPS
    Franklin: Age 21,22 103 games .271/.358/.435 .793 OPS
    Schoop: Age 21 34 games .268/.331/.386 .717 OPS

     
    A Few Caveats
     

    Kolten Wong: skipped A+, making his .754 OPS at AA quite impressive. Drafted by the Twins out of high school
    Delino Deshields: in his 2nd year of A ball, posted a .839 OPS in 111 games (would have placed him 3rd). Speed is a significant part of his value, stole 101 bases in 2012.

     
    Conclusion:
    Although Rosario has always been a year or two older per level than Schoop and DeShields, he has been a significantly better hitter. In this situation I would take Rosario’s vastly superior production over Schoop and DeShields’s relative youth. This is especially true with Schoop, who despite being a 21 year old in AAA, failed to post an OPS over .710 in A+ or AA.
     
    Gyorko, Franklin, and Wong, on the other hand, have produced at a similar rate to Rosario. Here are their stats combined for A, A+, and AA:
     

    Gyorko: Ages 21-23 .315/.388/.505 .894 OPS
    Rosario: Ages 20-21 .305/.355/.490 .845 OPS
    Franklin: Ages 19-21 .291/.357/.470 .827 OPS
    Wong: Ages 20-21 .300/.362/.434 .796 OPS

     
    This shows Rosario in a very positive light. He has out-produced Franklin and Wong, while being the same age upon reaching AA, and although Gyorko has posted better numbers (driven by a higher walk-rate), he has done so while being much older than any of the other prospects.
     
    While this information does not prove that Rosario is the best 2B prospect in baseball—I have not considered important factors such as defense, speed, or what their ceiling looks like going forward—it does suggest that he has been just as productive in the batter’s box, if not more so, than any other 2B prospect.
  10. Boone
    Before we all go assigning values to the Twins’ trade chips based off of how good we think they are, it is important to remember that, like most things, the value of players at the trade deadline is determined by the market. In short, a market is composed of supply, which is made up of sellers, and demand, which is made up of buyers.
     
    Buyers
    If the trade deadline were tomorrow, I believe there would be 16 teams considered buyers. Of course there are the 6 division leaders (Boston, Detroit, Oakland, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Arizona).
    There are also 10 teams chasing:
     

    Tampa Bay (4.5 GB in div., WC lead)
    Baltimore (5.5 GB in div, 1 in WC)
    New York Yankees (6 GB in div., 1.5 in WC)
    Cleveland (2.5 GB in div., 3.5 in WC)
    Texas (1 GB in div., WC lead)
    Washington (6 GB in div., 5 GB in WC)
    Pittsburgh (1 GB in NL div., WC lead)
    Cincinnati (5 GB in div., 4 GB in WC)
    LA Dodgers (2.5 GB in div., 5.5 GB in WC)
    Colorado (4.5 GB in div., 7.5 GB in WC)

     
    Sellers
    If the trade deadline were tomorrow, I believe there would be 8 teams considered definite sellers.
     

    Minnesota (13 GB in div., 14 GB in WC)
    Chicago White Sox (13.5 GB in div., 14.5 GB in WC)
    Seattle (13 GB in div., 11.5 GB in WC)
    Houston (20.5 GB in div., 19 GB in WC)
    NY Mets (11 GB in div., 10 GB in WC)
    Miami (18 GB in div., 17 GB in WC)
    Chicago Cubs (15 GB in div., 10 GB in WC)
    Milwaukee (19.5 GB in div., 14.5 GB in WC)

     
    Wait and See
    These are the teams that could go either way, or not make any moves at all. Their decisions could have a major impact on the market.
     
     

    KC- Haven’t competed for a playoff spot in a long time. Traded Myers for Shields in off-season. AL Central’s best record in June. Just 7 games behind in AL Central but are 4 games under .500. Lean buy
    Philadelphia- Expected to sell, but just 7 games back in NL East, 6 in WC. Howard’s injury out complicates matters. They’ve won 7 of their last 10 lean buy
    San Francisco (6.5 GB in div., 9.5 GB in WC)- Still in the division race, but have lost 7 of their last 10 and their rotation isn’t the same with Cain struggling. Hard to see a team that has won 2 of the last 3 WS selling but if they don’t turn things around soon they might have too. Lean buy
    San Diego- 8.5 games back in NL West, 9.5 back in NL WC. 1-9 in last 10 pretty much all you need to know. Lean sell
    Toronto- Out of contention, but their big off season might convince them to sit pat rather than sell. Lean sell
    LA Angels- Pretty much out of contention, but all those big contracts the last few off-seasons might convince them to not sell. Lean sell

     
    Comparison to Previous Years
    All of the previous information doesn’t mean much without context. By my estimation, over the past 3 years there have been an average of 13 buyers (15 in 2012, 11 in 2011, 13 in 2010) and 10 sellers (9 in 2012, 13 in 2011, and 8 in 2010) per year, which is a ratio of 1.3 buyers to sellers. This year appears to be more buyer heavy. If the 6 teams in the “Wait and See” category aren’t active, than the buyer to seller ratio could be as high as 2 (16 buyers, 8 sellers).
    One significant difference this season to the previous 3 is how close the divisional races are. Before today’s games, there were 19 teams 7 games or fewer behind the division leaders. As of 7/12 in the previous 3 seasons, there was an average of just 15.67 (16 in 2012, 16 in 2011, 15 in 2010). In my opinion, close divisional race will bring about more deadline deals than close wildcard races because a teams will feel more pressure to make a trade to match their competitors.
     
    Meaning for the Minnesota Twins
    This season is shaping up to have more buyers compared to sellers than the past 3 seasons—more demand compared to supply. Generally speaking, this should increase the price of players being traded at the deadline. This does not necessarily mean that the Twins will get more in return for their players than they would have in previous seasons—that is dependent on the market for the particular positions—but it is generally good news.
  11. Boone
    I went to see the final game of the Rock Cats’s series in Portland on Monday. Because I was only watching one game, didn’t see BP or fielding drills, and am not a professional scout I am not making any conclusions. My purpose was more to provide details that cannot be found in a boxscore as well as a very modest scouting report. I focused on Sano, Rosario, and Pinto. Unfortunately Danny Santana wasn’t in the lineup, as I was hoping to get a look at him playing shortstop.
     
    Hitting
    Sano
     

    1st AB: Struckout swinging
    I thought he checked his swing on the 3rd strike. He had some words for the ump, and the 3rd base coach (manager?) was ejected arguing the call

     
    [*]2nd AB: Flyout

    Swung at first pitch, pretty weak fly ball

     
    [*]3rd AB: Flyout

    Sano hit a routine fly ball to right center. I would have liked to have seen him go the other way (runner on 2nd, no outs), but it was a good pitch to hit. If he had hit it hard it probably would have gone a long way and I wouldn’t be complaining

     
    [*]4th AB: Flyout

    Skied a flyball to left

     
    [*]Overall impression

    Was generally pretty aggressive early in at bats against fastballs, but couldn’t seem to square one up. It was good to see that he has a pretty controlled swing, as opposed to an all out, swing from the heels (like Fielder or Harper).

     


     
    Rosario:
     

    First AB: Struck out swinging
    He was fooled by a breaking pitch for strike 3, and swung off of his front foot
    He thought strike 2 was low

     
    [*]2nd AB: Result: BB

    Took a few close pitches for balls, including ball 4, which was the breaking pitch that fooled him in his first AB

     
    [*]3rd AB: Struck out swinging

    Took a few close pitches early in the AB to get the count in his favor and he fouled off a good pitch with 2 strikes, but he was fooled by the breaking ball again. He struck out swinging on a pitch in the dirt

     
    [*]4th AB: E6

    Swung at first pitch and hit the ball sharply just to the shortstop’s left. The ball skipped once off the dirt and glanced off the shortstop’s glove into centerfield. Ruled an error. It would have been a really nice play. Might have been ruled a hit if the Rockcat’s had been at home

     
    [*]Overall impression: Was generally quite patient early in at bats and often worked the count into his favor. The one ball he put in play was hit quite sharply. Seemed to have trouble picking up breaking balls.


     
    Pinto
     

    2nd AB: just missed a fastball. He was clearly frustrated with himself on way back to dugout
    3rd AB: doubled on a hard hit line drive to left center. I was surprised at how well he ran

     
    Fielding
    Sano
     

    No groundballs were hit near him.
    Caught two popups that he barely had to move for. He did use both hands, which I liked to see.
    Overall impression: Wasn’t a whole lot to see here as he was never even remotely tested. I won’t pretend to know whether or not he is going to outgrow 3rd base, but he hasn’t yet.

     
    Rosario
     

    Caught a pop up in the first, barely had to move. Caught the ball with one hand, with his glove at his shoulder rather than over his head.
    Made an easy play on a routine bouncing ball in the fourth. Was very casual making the play
    Made a nice play on a hard hit ground ball in the 7th. Ranged a few steps to his right and made a sort of sliding stop (fielded cleanly). He then popped up quickly and made a relatively routine throw to first.
    Made a great catch on a weak line drive in the 7th that seemed destined to drop into shallow right. His route wasn’t perfect, but he recovered well and made a great leaping catch while running backwards and to his left. Displayed really good athleticism.
    With runners on 1st and 2nd and the Rockcats up 2 in the bottom of the 9th, there was a hard hit ground ball up the middle. The runner on second scored and the other went first to third. I would have liked to see Rosario lay out to try and stop the ball from reaching the outfield. He probably couldn’t have gotten there but I would have liked it anyways
    Overall impression: has a sort of lazy flair to his game that he displayed on the pop up in the first and grounder in the 4th. I also found it interesting that Rosario didn’t creep before the pitch; he went straight from a relaxed position to a ready position.

     
     
    Other notes
     

    Sano is going to be a fan favorite. He threw balls into the stands whenever he got the chance, once from the pitcher’s mound. The kids picked up on this pretty quickly and went crazy calling “hey 24” every time he got the ball. That was good to see.
    Daniel Ortiz hit a homerun right down the rightfield line (330 feet at the foul pole). It was more of a line drive than a fly ball but it still cleared the 15 foot high wall.

  13. Boone
    Introduction
     
    Over the past few weeks there have been a number of articles focusing on the Twins early season success, and asking one, simple question: can the Twins keep on winning? These articles have focused on two main points: the Twins potent offense (they rank 9th in MLB) despite a mediocre OPS (18th in MLB) and their stellar record (4th best win percentage in MLB) despite a much less impressive run differential (8th best in MLB). Their conclusion has tended to be that the Twins performance is unsustainable.
     
    Other articles have told you the Twins offense has been lucky because we are scoring more runs than we should have based on our current OPS. But this good luck good be balanced out by an unluckily low OPS. So my goal is to determine if our OPS is artificially high or low. If it is artificially low, then we shouldn’t have to worry too much about our inflated run-scoring ability: while we might start scoring fewer runs per point of OPS, our OPS should improve, meaning our run production shouldn’t drop too much. But if our OPS is artificially high…Well that would be bad news.
     
    Analysis
     
    My process will be as follows: OPS = OBP + SLG. OBP is composed of getting hits (AVG) and drawing walks (BB%). SLG is a result of total bases, which is determined by how many hits you get (AVG) and how many extra bases you get (ISO). So in short, we’ve now broken OPS down into three component parts: AVG, BB%, and ISO. One further step: your batting average is determined by how many balls you put in play (K%) and how frequently those balls in play drop for hits (BABIP and, to a lesser extent, HR%). So we now have broken OPS down into four parts: K%, BABIP, BB%, and ISO. Let’s see how the Twins perform in these four statistics, and we’ll have a better idea of what our OPS should be, given how we’ve played so far.
     
    K%: 21.0% (22nd in MLB)
    BB%: 6.7% (25th)
    Let’s combine these two statistics together into BB/K ratio: BB/K: .32 (25).
    BABIP: .309 (8)
    ISO: .132 (24)
    OPS: .700 (18)
     
    As you can see, the Twins strike out at one of the highest rates in baseball. They also draw walks at one of the lowest rates in baseball. The result, should be one of the worst OBP in baseball. Turns out, it is: the Twins OBP of .311 ranks 21st in MLB. This is in spite of one of the highest BABIP in all of baseball. The Twins also lack power, evidenced by their ISO of .132 (24th in baseball). As a result, our low slugging percentage (.389, 18th in baseball), shouldn’t come as a surprise.
     
    When you put together an inability to get on base with a lack of power, you should get a low OPS. Which is exactly what the Twins have: their OPS of .700 ranks 18th in baseball. In case you’re wondering, this is their triple-slash line, and how it ranks in baseball: .257(11)/.311(21)/.389(18).
     
    So our OPS doesn’t seem to be unnaturally low. After all, the Twins rank 22nd or lower in 3 of the 4 components I identified. The only area where the Twins are performing well is in terms of BABIP, which is why our team batting average ranks 11th in baseball: the Twins currently sport a BABIP of .309, the 8th highest in baseball.
     
    BABIP is somewhat of an infamous statistic. It has a wide variance that leads to dramatic differences in the AVG (and thus OBP, SLG, and OPS) for a given player or team). But let’s take a closer look at the Twins batted ball profile and determine if our BABIP is artificially low (which would be good) or artificially high (which would be bad).
     
    Here is a rundown of how the Twins perform in a number of batted ball statistics:
     
    LD%: 21.7% (12th highest)
    GB/FB: 1.36 (14th highest)
    Hard hit: 25.6% (27th highest)
    IFFB%: 11.3% (6th highest)
     
    Because line drives lead to more hits than grounders and fly balls, the higher your LD% the higher the expected BABIP should be. Same goes for GB/FB ratio (ground balls yield a higher BABIP than fly balls) and hard hit percentage. Conversely, infield fly balls are automatic outs, so a low IFFB% should yield a higher BABIP.
     
    Look at the rankings: the Twins fail to rank in the top 8 in any category where more is better nor in the bottom 8 of IFFB% (where less is better). In fact, the Twins don’t rank in the top/bottom 11 of any of these categories. This isn’t the most scientific approach, but to me this indicates that the Twins should not, at this point, have the 8th highest BABIP in MLB.
     
    High K-rate, low BB-rate, little power, and an unnaturally high BABIP means our play as hitters deserves a low OPS.
     
    Conclusion
     
    The Twins don’t have good underlying statistics as hitters: the Twins rank 22nd or lower in 3 of the 4 components I identified. The only area where we are performing well is BABIP which is the 8th highest in baseball. Unfortunately, this mark seems to be unnaturally high. As a result, I feel confident in saying that the Twins current OPS is not a result of bad luck. In fact, it might even be a result of good luck.
     
    Quick caveat: all I did was look and see if, based on underlying numbers, what our OPS should be. What I didn’t look at was if those underlying numbers are artificially good/bad: Are our players striking out more than in past years? Are they hitting fewer line drives? I don’t know. So I don’t know if our performance in these underlying metrics will get better as the season goes on.
     
    Any number of articles can tell you that the Twins offense has scored more runs than they should have so far (based on OPS). What I’m telling you is that our OPS should be low (maybe even lower). This is further confirmation that our offense has scored more runs than it should have so far. In other words, if our ability to score runs at a high rate given our OPS slows down (and we should expect it too), we should not expect our OPS to increase to balance this out…Unless we start performing better across these underlying statistics. Will we? I don’t know. But let’s hope so.
  14. Boone
    Over the past year, Lewis Thorpe has exploded on the scene. An unknown commodity heading into the GCL last season, he was so dominant as a 17 year old that he has appeared on various preseason Twins’ top 10 prospect lists. He has made even more news this year, skipping the Appalachian league and going straight to A ball from extended spring training. However, the Midwest league has not been kind to Thorpe, who has posted a 5.40 ERA with a 31:15 k:bb ratio in 35 innings over 8 GS. Despite these struggles, Thorpe is showing sign of improvement.
     
    Moving in the Right Direction
    Thorpe improvement is easily noticed when looking at his monthly splits:
    June: 4 GS 18 IP 6.50 ERA 1.67 WHIP 7:10 k:bb
    July: 4 GS 17 IP 4.24 ERA 1.18 WHIP 24:5 k:bb
     
    Although Thorpe's ERA has remained high, it is significantly lower than in the month of June. Furthermore, his WHIP has plummeted to a very respectable level. Most importantly, his k:bb has gone from and atrocious .7 to a stellar 4.8. In fact, his K rate 33.3% is higher than that of the league’s leader this season (29%) and his K/BB would be good for second in the league1.
     
    A deeper way to examine Thorpe's improvement is to look at rolling 4 start stretches, which are rarely used when discussing baseball, but are commonly used in finance. The general idea is that this will allow us to get a more detailed look at how Thorpe has improved start to start (how much better was he in start 5 vs. start 1) while at the same time maintaining a larger sample size. In short, this will allow us to see how consistent--or inconsistent—Thorpe’s improvement has been.
    [TABLE=width: 452]


    Starts
    ERA
    WHIP
    K%
    BB%
    K/BB
    OPS


    1-4
    6.50
    1.67
    8.3%
    11.9%
    0.7
    0.840


    2-5
    4.00
    1.50
    17.3%
    9.9%
    1.8
    0.756


    3-6
    4.50
    1.39
    22.5%
    8.8%
    2.6
    0.776


    4-7
    4.50
    1.17
    27.3%
    7.8%
    3.5
    0.647


    5-8
    4.24
    1.12
    33.3%
    6.9%
    4.8
    0.676
    [/TABLE]
     
    Although his ERA has moved around a bit, his WHIP, K%, BB%-- and therefore K:BB ratio-- have decreased each period. Furthermore, his opponent's OPS has decreased each time with one exception. This kind of consistent improvement makes me confident that Thorpe is getting comfortable in A-ball and that his strong performance should continue the rest of the season. Furthermore, it proves that his strong month of July isn’t merely the result of one incredible performance.
     
     
    Going Forward
    I will be looking forward to Thorpe’s start tonight, to see if he can continue his run of success. Even if Thorpe is excellent for the rest of the season, I would argue that he should begin 2015 in Cedar Rapids. The reason? His youth. At 4 full years younger than the average pitcher in the league and 11 months younger than Kohl Stewart—the youngest pitcher to be qualified for the ERA title—Thorpe would probably be the youngest pitcher on an opening day roster in the Midwest league next year. In other words, there is no need to push him. However, Thorpe's youth is so extreme that its impact stretches far beyond this usual argument. Thorpe appears to have been on a very strict pitch count: according to the Cedar Rapids Gazette, he is being limited to 75 pitches a night. Furthermore, if Berrios’s age 19 season in Cedar Rapids is any indication, Thorpe probably won't pitch more than 120 innings next year2. Not only would it be nice for Thorpe to learn how to go deeper in games at an earlier level, but if he were to begin next year and ft. Myers and move up one level per year, there's a good chance he would reach AAA never having thrown more than 150 innings in a season, nor consistently reached 100 pitches/GS. While that may not be a bad thing, it certainly isn't ideal for a pitcher just one step away from the MLB. For now though, let’s hope that Thorpe continues to improve here in 2014, in which case he could appear quite high on Top 100 lists, and would provide the Twins with another potential front of the rotation starter for years to come.
     
     
    1. I would have liked to have compared this to the league leaders for July, but I couldn’t find that data.
    2. Berrios, who did seem to wear out as the year went along, pitched just 103.2 innings
  15. Boone
    Here are three legitimate prospects (all are 1.7 years younger than the average player in their respective leagues, according to Baseball Reference) who, at first glance, appear to be struggling so far in 2014. A closer examination, however, tells a different story:
     
    Taylor Rogers (AA SP)
     

    32.2 IP in 8 GS
    The bad:
    5.36 ERA
    1.53 WHIP

     
    [*]Why he’s better than his numbers:


    The obvious indicator is his 3.50 FIP, almost 2 full runs lower than his ERA; in fact, this difference is the highest in the Eastern League amongst qualified pitchers. Let’s take a closer look:
     
    Rogers is striking out 8.66 per 9 innings (21.3% of plate appearances) and walking just 2.27 per 9 (5.6% of PA), good for a stellar 3.82 K/BB, which ranks him 8th in the Eastern League amongst qualified pitchers. This is a huge step forward from a season ago, when Rogers posted just 5.72 K/9 (15.7%) with a 2.59 K/BB. Furthermore, Rogers continues to keep the ball on the ground, posting an excellent 1.61 GO/AO ratio.
     
    The cause of Rogers’ struggles is two-fold: an extremely high BABIP and a poor strand-rate. Rogers has a .377 BABIP, which is the worst in the EL amongst qualified pitchers, and his strand rate of 61.5% is the 8th worst amongst qualified pitchers.
     
     

    How optimistic should we be?

    Very. Although I wouldn’t expect Rogers to continue to strike out close to a batter per inning, if he continues to induce ground balls at a high rate and limit walks—which I expect him to do—he should have a solid year. And if his increased strikeout rate is here to stay—even if it settles around 7 K/9—then Rogers should merit a mid-season call-up to AAA.
     
     
    Adrian Salcedo (AA RP)
     

    22 IP in 15 relief appearances for New Britain
    The bad:
    7.77 ERA
    1.86 WHIP

     
    [*]Why he’s better than his numbers:


    Similar to Rogers, Salcedo’s FIP is an immediate indicator of bad luck; he has a FIP of 2.43 for the season, over 5 runs lower than his ERA (this is a staggering figure, as the next highest difference between ERA and FIP for an Eastern League pitcher with at least 20 IP is 3.42, compared to Salcedo’s 5.34). Let’s take a closer look at Salcedo’s numbers:
     
    Salcedo is striking out a whopping 12.27 batters per 9 innings (27.5% of PAs) and is walking just 3.27 (7.3%), good for an excellent 3.75 K/BB ratio. Although he is walking more batters than a year ago, the large increase in strikeouts (up from 8.33 K/9) has led to a slight improvement in his K/BB ratio (up from 3.6 last season). Furthermore, Salcedo has posted an excellent 2.08 GO/AO ratio, even better than the 1.68 GO/AO from a year ago.
     
    The cause of Salcedo’s struggles, similar to those of Rogers, is a high BABIP and a lower strand-rate. Salcedo’s BABIP of .464 is the highest in the EL amongst pitchers with at least 20 IP (the next closest is just .400) and his strand rate is just 51.7%, meaning roughly half of all batters that reach base score; this is the 4th worst rate in the EL amongst pitchers with 20 IP.
     
     

    How optimistic should we be?

    Very. Salcedo is establishing himself as a high-K, low-BB, ground-ball inducing relief pitcher. What more can you ask for? Once his BABIP comes back to Earth, which it will, his strand-rate should increase and his ERA will drop. I expect Salcedo to be another candidate for a mid-season call-up to AAA. It is worth noting that Salcedo was a popular sleeper prospect heading into the 2012 season before injuries limited him to just 30 IP that year.
     
     
    Max Kepler (A+ OF/1B)
     

    The bad: .215/.319/.347 for an OPS of .666
    Why’s he’s better than his numbers:

     
    Kepler has displayed excellent plate discipline, striking out in just 13.5% of his plate appearances (down from 16.3% last year) and walking in 10.6%, which is the highest rate of his career. The result is a BB/K ratio of .79, which is the 13th best in the league, and a significant improvement from a solid BB/K ratio of .56 from last season.
     
    The main cause of Kepler’s struggles is his .236 BABIP, which is the 6th lowest amongst qualified starters.
     
     

    How optimistic should we be?

    I would be slightly less optimistic about Kepler than Rogers and Salcedo. Yes, his BABIP is incredibly low and should rise. Although this figure is certainly a result of bad luck and therefore should be expected to rise, it could also be a result of some underlying problems for Kepler. First and foremost, it is similar to the .254 BABIP of a year ago. Secondly, his ISO of .130 is much lower than his ISO of .189 from last year, which could indicate that he simply isn’t hitting the ball very hard. On the other hand, the Florida State League is notoriously a pitcher-friendly league, and Kepler’s ISO is actually much better (24% better, to be exact) than the league average of .105. In fact, only one player in the league has a higher ISO and BB/K ratio than Kepler. I’m very high on Kepler—he presents a rare combination of plate discipline, power, and athleticism—but I think a full year in A+ would be good for him.
×
×
  • Create New...