mluebker

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were brought on board to head the Twins front office in late 2016.  We have nearly a decade of drafts to look at now.  What might have happened under other leadership? 
I took a look at the first rounders picked by the Twins 2017-25 and then checked which player was taken next.  That's hardly an infallible way to look at it, but resembles a kind of "crowd sourcing" among the dozen or so other GMs in the majors during the same era as to how it might have gone had they been drafting in the Twins place.  And it attempts to avoid cherry-picking of one hypothetical outcome or another way, way down the draft list, where multiple other teams whiffed too. 
I've opted to omit the 2024-25 drafts since it's way too soon to evaluate them, but for the rest I show the bWAR career totals side by side:
2023    Walker Jenkins  0.0     As      Jacob Wilson    2.2
2023    Charlee Soto    0.0     Marlins Thomas White    0.0
2022    Brooks Lee      -0.8    Royals  Gavin Cross     0.0
2021    Chase Petty     -0.8    Padres  Jackson Merrill 6.1
2021    Noah Miller     0.0     Pirates Anthony Solometo        0.0
2020    Aaron Sabato    0.0     Yanks   Austin Wells    2.6
2019    Keoni Cavaco    0.0     Phils   Bryson Stott    9.4
2019    Matt Wallner    4.9     Rays    Seth Johnson    -0.4
2018    Trevor Larnach  3.6     Brewers Brice Turang    11.5
2017    Royce Lewis     4.0     Red     Hunter Greene   12.4
2017    Brent Rooker    8.9     Marlins Brian Miller    -0.1
Each one is worth discussing, which I'll do from the bottom up.  Rooker of course is a very interesting case, and he has turned himself into a quality major league hitter after two other organizations after the Twins gave up on him too.  He was a throw-in on the trade that brought us Paddack and Pagan, so even though we didn't reap his full potential by a long shot, at least we cashed him in for something and the next team who was drafting wound up with nothing to speak of.  Advantage: FalVine.
Royce Lewis is maybe even more interesting.  We coulda had Greene, and instead got a player whose potential seems to have been decimated by injury.  Advantage: not Falvine.
Larnach?  He's been okay.  The next guy in line has been a whole lot better so far. Advantage: not FalVine. 
Wallner.  He's been somewhat better than Larnach. The Rays didn't do nearly as well  Advantage: FalVine.
Cavaco. Oh boy.  Coulda had a major leaguer.  Advantage: not FalVine.
Sabato.  Oh boy.  Coulda had a major leaguer - could we use an additional catcher right now?  Advantage: not FalVine.
Miller.  He's knocking on the major league door with the Dodgers; we traded him for the unique athletic stylings of Manuel Margot. The next guy drafted hasn't panned out yet, although he still might.  I'll try not to hold Margot against Miller personally - whether foolishly or not, the Twins cashed Miller in for something.  Advantage (ever so slightly): FalVine.
Petty.  Another interesting case.  We cashed him in for two years of Sonny Gray.  But, but, but, the Padres have Merrill and will continue to have him for many years, per contract.  I don't think the Padres would make that same trade.  Advantage: not FalVine.
Lee.  The current WAR is ugly, but it's reasonable to think he'll continue to have a major league career - by my recollection, it was considered an 8-player draft and the Twins were choosing #8, but give them credit for not overthinking it.  The next guy drafted looks like he's not gonna make it.  Advantage: FalVine.
Soto.  This is a comparison of two high-school pitchers, so it's way premature.  The other guy has displayed more health/endurance so far, and with good ERAs - he's reached AA at age 20 and not yet missed a beat.  Advantage: I'm gonna call this a 'push' for the time being but the tea leaves are currently pointing in the wrong direction.
Jenkins.  The big kahuna, and the reason I drew the line at the 2023 draft when it's obviously premature.  It's interesting because the next guy drafted has reached the majors and is doing very well.  Do the Twins now regret choosing Jenkins?  I would doubt it - his ceiling is sky high.  Would the As have chosen differently than the Twins did, back in 2023?  I also doubt it - this was considered a 5-player draft and the Twins were choosing #5.  With all things considered, I'm going to maybe be controversial and not call it too soon to tell.  Advantage: a push - the Twins simply did what was expected and (arguably) did what any FO would have done.
So, count them up.  Of the 11 picks, I give FalVine the edge on 4, I call it a push on 2, and it's a worse outcome on 5.
But I think that a simple count understates it.  Which would you rather have right now?
Merrill, Wells, Stott, Turang, Greene? Lee, Gray (suppose we would have extended him), Wallner, Larnach, Lewis? Oof.  Going by WAR for 2025 all by itself (it's anyone's guess going forward), I'd have to say: Not An Impressive Body Of Work.
I want a 11 Do-Overs.  😀

Hello, fellow humans! My name is William Malone IV. Son of William Malone III. And I come with great news! The baseball season is in full swing and the Minnesota Twins are back in action.
I know some of the frontrunners are angry at their record, but the real fans are just happy to watch their favorite team play baseball. It's such a wonderful sport, and many of us have missed the greatness of the Twins for the winter months. These negative fans have some reason to be negative. Minnesota has not played well so far. But some of the complaints are just hollow and fake. So if you're going to complain, find something that's actually worth complaining about.
Crying about Rocco Baldelli pulling Joe Ryan at 81 pitches is the latest example of fans complaining for the sake of complaining. So, it didn't work out. But did you watch any of the other 14 games across Major League baseball that day? It's a fairly normal occurrence. And yes, sometimes managers go against this practice. And many times, it doesn't work.
On Saturday night, just hours after Joe Ryan was pulled against St. Louis, Griffin Canning of the New York Mets having an even better start. He was through five innings on 72 pitches, allowing only one run. Canning came out for the sixth inning, allowed the go-ahead run, and New York wound up falling to the Houston Astros.
There is no right or wrong decision for these managers to make. No matter what they do, the players have to show up and do their jobs. They decide the outcomes. For every "losing" decision fans complain about, there's another manager who makes the opposite decision and still winds up losing. But most fans only watch their favorite team, and ignore the other 29. So they're missing out on all these "losing" decisions that other managers make. How many angry Twins fans turned around to watch the Mets blow that game against Houston with Carlos Mendoza making opposite decisions? Probably a pretty small number.
The same thing goes for third base coaches. All 30 fan bases will insist that they have the worst third base coach. You see it all over social media every single time someone gets thrown out at home. "(insert name) is the WORST third base coach in the league!!!" But none of these fans watch the other 29 third base coaches to get a fair grasp on how their own coach actually stacks up. And whenever their opponent has a player thrown out at home, these same fans will never blame the opponent's third base coach. They'll just praise their outfielder for a great throw or their catcher for a great tag. It's only on the third base coach if it's their own team getting hosed at home.
Nobody is saying you can't complain. Just complain about real issues. Not these made up issues when you have no real frame of reference to stack up your team against the other 29. You know what has been a problem for the Twins? Offense! Even if Baldelli had stuck with Ryan, and there's no guarantee that Ryan keeps putting up zeros, Minnesota would still have to score another run at some point. They never had the lead. It was a tie game. You can't win a 1-1 game without eventually scoring again, which the Twins never did. It's not illegal to score eight runs. Just do that! And all the managerial decisions get so much easier.
And I know the pitching hasn't been great either, but hitting is probably more important. It's often easier to out slug your opponent than to try and win 3-2 or 2-1 games every night. The Seattle Mariners allowed the least runs in 2024. They also missed the playoffs. And you still need to slug your way through the playoffs against "playoff pitching." Remember that 2019 World Series with loaded rotations on paper? Strasburg, Scherzer and Corbin against Verlander, Cole and Greinke? The winning run totals in those seven games were 5, 12, 4, 8, 7, 7 and 6. And then the takeaway from fans across baseball was "you need a three headed rotation monster to win the World Series!"