Wow, what a season. Although it didn’t end the way Twins Territory wanted it to, it was undoubtedly a success. As recent as the second half, this team was flirting with a .500 record, and at multiple times dipped below it. If in March I were to tell you that Byron Buxton AND Carlos Correa were below average hitters for the regular season, you would have thought it was a trainwreck. But with the emergence of players such as Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and even Spring Training non-roster invitee Willi Castro, it made it an enjoyable season of baseball to watch for fans. That does not even mention Ryan Jeffers breaking out, and the second half Max Kepler had, when it seemed his days of baseball in Minneapolis were over. The streak was finally broken, and now we won’t have to grimace every time somebody mentions a once-active 0-18 playoff streak dating back to 2004 (before I was even born). No matter what anyone says, it was a successful season of Twins Baseball in 2023, and I will leave it at that. With that being said, now we look forward to Twins baseball in 2024, and I decided to create a guide to help navigate the offseason. I have compiled dates, roster information, and hopefully everything you will need to get a better idea of what this offseason will bring. I hope you enjoy!
Free Agents
Sonny Gray
Kenta Maeda
Emilio Pagan
Donovan Solano
Tyler Mahle
Michael A Taylor
Joey Gallo
Dallas Keuchel
40 Man Roster (Doesn’t account for any transactions that will inevitably happen, 38 spots full)
Pitchers (21 spots)
Jorge Alcala
Jordan Balazovic
Matt Canterino
Jose De Leon
Jhoan Duran
Kody Funderburk
Brent Headrick
Ronny Henriquez
Griffin Jax
Pablo Lopez
Jovani Moran
Bailey Ober
Oliver Ortega
Chris Paddack
Joe Ryan
Cole Sands
Brock Stewart
Caleb Thielbar
Louie Varland
Josh Winder
Simeon Woods-Richardson
Hitters
Ryan Jeffers
Christian Vazquez
Carlos Correa
Kyle Farmer
Edouard Julien
Royce Lewis
Jose Miranda
Jorge Polanco
Willi Castro
Nick Gordon
Max Kepler
Alex Kirilloff
Trevor Larnach
Jordan Luplow
Andrew Stevenson
Matt Wallner
Byron Buxton
Timeline (*Explained Below)
Oct 27-Nov 4: World Series*
5 Days After Conclusion of World Series: League Wide Free Agency Begins* (Player/Team Options Due)* (Qualifying Offer also due)*
Nov 7-9: GM Meetings*
Nov 15: Rule 5 Protection Deadline*, Qualifying Offer Decision Deadline*
Nov 17: Non-Tender Deadline*
Dec 3-6: Winter Meetings*
Dec 5: MLB Draft Lottery*
Dec 6: Rule 5 Draft*
January 2024: BBWAA Hall of Fame Announcement*
Jan 12: Arbitration Agreement Deadline*
Jan 29-Feb 16: Arbitration Hearings*
Feb 14: Pitchers and Catchers Report
Feb 23: Spring Training Game vs. Gophers
Feb 24: First Real Spring Training Game vs. Pirates
Mar 28: Opening Day @Kansas City Royals
World Series - The end of the World Series officially signifies the long offseason starting. The 2024 World Series Game 1 is scheduled for October 27, whereas Game 7 is scheduled for November 4.
Free Agency - Free Agency technically begins the day after the World Series, however, that just is when only the team they are departing from can contact their own free agents. League-wide free agency starts five days after the final game of the World Series, which could be as soon as November 5, or as late as November 9. Team and Player Options are due before league wide free agency starts.
Qualifying Offers - Qualifying Offers must be made within the 5 day window after the World Series ends. This year the qualifying offer is slated to be just over $20 Million. The only one of the 8 departing free agents from the Twins who will likely receive a QO will be Sonny Gray, and he will most likely decline by the November 15 deadline at 3:00 PM CT. It seems that Sonny Gray will sign elsewhere, which will gain the Twins a draft pick. If Sonny signs elsewhere for $50+ Million, the Twins receive a 2024 draft pick right before Competitive Balance Round A (Right after 1st round,) If less than $50 Million, it would be right after Competitive Balance Round B, which is after the 2nd round.
GM Meetings - Typically not much happens here. Just a meeting to explore possible offseason scenarios for General Managers and set framework up for the winter.
Rule 5 Protection - Teams must protect players who signed at age 18 or younger within 5 seasons and players who signed at age 19 or older within 4 seasons. Some Twins prospects who fit that bill and will at least be considered to be added are Jair Camargo, Yunior Severino, Chris Williams, Austin Martin, Dashawn Keirsey, Michael Helman, Anthony Prato, Blayne Enlow, and maybe a few more. Players who are not protected can be chosen by other organizations during the Rule 5 Draft on December 6 for a $100k fee. Players selected must be kept on MLB active roster for the whole season or the MLB IL when it opens up during spring training. Otherwise, if they are DFA’d and clear waivers they must be offered back to their original team for $50k.
Non Tender Deadline/Arbitration - Players with between 3 and 6 years of MLB service time qualify for arbitration. It is a system for players to present themselves and try to be compensated for what they believe to be fair for their play. If a team doesn’t believe that a player is worth their projected arbitration amount, they can choose not to offer them a contract, or “non-tender” them. Said player then becomes a free agent and available to sign with any team after the November 17 deadline. If the team does decide to offer the player a contract before the deadline, they agree to go through a process called arbitration. The teams and the player are free to negotiate a contract all the way until the January 12 deadline. If no agreement is reached, they have to go through the MLB to an Arbitrator. Both sides submit their desired pay figures and the arbitrator uses previous play and other information to decide which figure is more fair. The player is then paid that figure for the year and no more negotiation is had. This can hurt the relationship between the player and the organization, see Corbin Burnes and the Brewers in 2023.
Arbitration Eligible Twins (Expected $ in parentheses)
Caleb Thielbar ($3M)
Kyle Farmer ($6.6M)
Jordan Luplow ($1.6M)
Willi Castro ($3.2M)
Jorge Alcala ($1M)
Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M)
Jose De Leon ($740K)
Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M)
Nick Gordon ($1M)
Non Tender Candidates - Farmer, Luplow, Alcala, De Leon
Winter Meetings - Multiple representatives from each team/organization gather for 4 days of meetings, which is happening this year in Nashville, Tennessee. Here is moreso where trades and signings are discussed between players, teams, and agents. Just as recent as last year, the Winter Meetings have had breaking news when Aaron Judge signed his 9 year, $360 Million megadeal to stay with the Yankees. If you are hoping for breaking MLB news during this offseason, this is the week to expect it to come from.=
BBWAA Hall of Fame Announcement - Typically this is not a huge deal for Twins fans. Recently Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva were inducted to the MLB Hall of Fame, but they were through a different committee. This year is different, Minnesota Twins great Joe Mauer is going to be on the ballot for the first time. Although he may not make it in on the first try, this has been a day Minnesotans have been waiting for for a long time. Other former Twins on the ballot include Torii Hunter, and more infamously Bartolo Colon.
MLB Draft Lottery - In 2023, the Twins infamously jumped up the draft board to pick #5 during the lottery and in July selected Walker Jenkins. This year will not be quite as exciting, only teams who missed the playoffs qualify for the lottery. With the playoff run they had, the Twins will be selecting around pick #25 during the MLB Draft in July.
If you made it all the way through, thank you for reading. I hope you enjoyed and at least learned something. To compilate all of this data took quite a while so any feedback would be appreciated. This was the first article I’ve written in a while so it is very possible I was a bit rusty. If you have any questions leave a comment and I will try my best to clarify/answer. Happy offseason and GO TWINS!!!
Hindsight is 20/20. Who knew our offense would be THIS pathetic? Plus we did need to improve our pitching. but lets take a look at some recent trades and the impact of each.
Lets get the big one out of the way early here. Arraez for Lopez. You have to give something to get something, and yes I think we all knew we were giving away the probable2023 batting champ, seriously??? .400??? Just imagine what he would be doing in our lineup?!?!!! He would most likely be playing 1B so lets take a look at the Twins 1B stats. Arraez for Lopez (+prospects)
Twins 1B = 9 HR 32 RBI 35 BB 80 K 251/357/435 slash line for a .792 OPS. nto horrible NOTE MLB does not assign Runs when sort by position, but Would assume we would be near the bottom.
Arraez = 2 HR 35 RBI 21 BB 15 K 400/450/490 slash line for a .940 OPS. his 31 runs seems low for getting on base that much, but he gets on base!!! and does not strike out!!
Lopex has been decent. not spectacular, but #2 in AL with 110K, he hsa a top 16 in AL WHIP at 1.14. ERA is pedestrian 4.4o before tonight's tough outing. We were able to extend him which has some value. Overall a decent #3 starter for a batting champ hitting .400? that is a bit tough. BUT we did get 2 prospects as well.
Jose Salas. 20 yr old SS at High A. struggling, but a top 10 prospect in our system. Byron Chourio, 18 year old in Rookie league... TBD
RESULT? would still POSSIBLY do it, it had to be done but still hurt, now knowing how bad the offense is struggling it is a coinflip if I'd redo, but fair enough.
Tyler Mahle Trade. This one was 2022 but still counts as it is impacting 2023.
Mahle had a huge injury risk before trading for him, so this is not revisionist history. this trade just straight up should not have been done!!! or at least not given up what we did. What did we give up?
Spencer Steer. versatile player. we probably didn't have much room for him, but he is having a strong RC campaign in Cinci. but again, redundant here so I understand including him. P Steve Hajjar, with all due respect to Steve, a bit of a nothing burger here. But what made me throw my computer (figuratively) seeing this trade was the inclusion fo Christian Encarnacion Strand. This kid is a BEAST. and should have been untouchable. career .325/388/614 for a 1.002 OPS!!
This is a trade that should make GMs lose their jobs. Without CES, I am ok with it. you trade a blocked above average prospect for a pitcher who is good when healthy but big injury concerns. btu the CES makes this HORRID!!!
Another 2022 that Many of us saw falling completely apart before the first pitch was thrown was the Chris Paddack trade.
Paddack for Rogers and Rooker. OK a bit of revisionist history here. (on the Rooker side). I did actually receive a strike against me on Twins Daily here for my description on how easily his Paddack's health status would turn out. I will not restate that here, but I will say it should have been very obvious!!!!
Paddack was a lost season injury waiting to happen, and he happened. Rogers, that FIRST year was DOMINANT!!! but we are talking about this year, so who cares about that. Rooker did finally establish himself this year, although coming back to earth a bit after hot start. But Paddack was lost fro 2022 and for 2023, so again HORRID trade as this was totally foreseeable.
SO again a trade that may not get GMS fired, but should tighten the leash.
Jorge Lopez for prospects. OK this one I cant really hammer the team on, it was a pretty good move at the time, and Lopez pitched fairly well last year, but where we stand now could be the worst of the lot. Lopez has issues (on the field. I do not criticize players off the field). he is nto a major league pitcher. Yennier Cano, one fo the prospects given up is DOMINATING in Baltimore!!! this alone makes it horrid in retrospect. Imagine Cano & Duran!! Cade Povich seems like a decent prospect, a high K pitcher, most likely reliever in the bigs doing fairly well in Baltimore system. adn a couple others (one to watch in the futur eis Juan Rojas currently 19 year old injured) but to me this is purely a Lopez/Cano deal, and as it sits now, we had HORRIBLE results.
Michael Taylor for 2 prospects. Thi sone is a good trade, adn look sbetter when seeing how we are not going to play Buxton in CF (or does this make it worse? would we play Buck in CF if we didnt have Taylor???) overall a good trade so far.
So overall I have to say:
Michael Taylor = B+
Jorge Lopez = D possibyl F based on current situation
Paddack = D (if we gace up more I would have given a F-
Mahle = F-
Pablo Lopez = C- (you knew what it would look like but had to do it)
Overall trade grade for FO = D maybe D+ due to Michael Taylor.
So that begs the question... why should we trust this FO when making Moves that NEED to happen??
Becasue overall any moves will be addition by subtraction.
Future Move #1: DFA Kepler. Ok go ahead and see if you can get cash considerations for him, but he has ZERO trade value. replace him with Wallner.
Future Move #2 DFA/trade Gallo. so he has a DECENT OPS. but his K rate and .192 avg just cant play.
Future Move #3 Trade Sonny Gray... wait WHAT??? yes you heard me. he is about the only thing of value to trade on this team. He will not be back next year as he will command more than the Twins will be willing to pay. plus he HATES the short leashes pitchers get here with the Twins so he will choose elsewhere for same/less money. if we QO offer him in teh offseason, he will go unsigned anyways, as he will be 34 and nobody will give him a multi year deal at $20M+ with a QO tag associated. so lets trade him now get some value. as this team is currently constructed he is a luxury. a #1 starter on a bad team. yes we may win this bad division, but only to get bumped in first round (possibly swept again) we can get these same results without him, so trade him and get value!!!
Future move #4 Buxton must play CF!! Who cares if he stays healthy if he isnt producing? and we are losing with him in the lineup now so who cares ifhe gets injured and misses time by playing in OF. AT LEAST 2 games a week he needs to be in CF. if it doesnt give the TEAM a spark, it could give the FANS a spark.
Future move #5 Royce Lewis needs to play EVERY DAY!! (assuming he is healthy, and I am guessing they doing "load management" with his 2 knee surgeries, but again at least give FANS a spark.
I am leaving it with on field moves for now, but would not be opposed to losing hitting coach (high number of K's across the board speaks to team approach), trainer (we brought in a training guru but how many hammies have we had this year and other DL stints???) Head Coach (cannot pull starters after 75 pitches, cannot pinch hit a sub .200 hitter for your hottest hitter, cannot set a lineup against an "opener" only to pinch-hit for your starting DH after 2 innings. and of course based on the trading scorecard GMs cannot trade away quality players for pitchers with known injury histories and expect history to not repeat itself.
WOW that went way longer than I anticipated!!!! LOL
