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  1. Physics Guy

    Projecting the 2023 Twins

    By Physics Guy,


    Twins
    Much of this off-season has been frustrating for Twins fans. Once again, the Twins failed to pick up a bona fide ace to front the rotation. They did however pull off a major coup by re-signing Carlos Correa for a contract valued will below what many predicted he would get going into the off-season. They also solidified the depth in the rotation by trading fan-favorite Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez. As we approach Spring Training, where do the Twins stand? 
    Let us take a look at predicting the Twins' record based on WAR. Last year, the Twins totaled 36.1 WAR as a team, resulting in a 78-84 record. There is a strong correlation between team WAR and overall wins. 
    https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins
    A team constructed of all 0 WAR players is said to be around a 50 win team. It could be argued that the Twins under-performed based on their season WAR total last year and probably should have been in the low to mid-80's for wins. A team war total of 45 or better should get the team to a win total in the 90's.  So how do the changes made by the front office equate to 45+ WAR for the 2023 Twins? Below is a projection for individual WAR values for the upcoming season. Each player listed below is followed by a projected number of games and their associated WAR (based on b-WAR). 
    Starting IF (12.8 Combined WAR) Vazquez (105, 1.2), Kirilloff (120, 1.5), Polanco (140, 3.0), Correa (140, 5.6) Miranda (130, 1.5). The question marks here are Kirlloff and Miranda. Neither is projected to add huge numbers to the team's total and players such as Kyle Farmer and Joey Gallo can mitigate those two. Both Kirlloff and Miranda have the potential to produce higher WAR values than projected.
    Starting OF/DH (12.6 Comined WAR) Gallo (120, 1.8), Buxton (60 CF, 60 DH, 5.0), Kepler (120, 1.8), Taylor (120, 2.5), Larnach (110, 1.5). There are several question marks here, starting with Gallo. The Twins obviously feel Gallo still has some of what he showed in Texas.  Kepler, Gallo and Larnach are all projected to be similar and if one slips, Gordon gives some additional protection. Having Michaeal A. Taylor to play 100 games in CF allows the Twins to keep Buxton healthy and potentially play 120 games in 2023. This could be done by a rotation of something like this every eight games:  CF, DH, Bench, CF, DH, CF, Bench, DH. Obviously projecting 120 G from Buxton is a gamble, but he did put up 4.0 WAR in 92 G in 2022.
    Bench (1.9 Combined WAR) Jeffers (55, 0.7), Farmer (100, 0.7), Gordon (60, 0.5). While this may not appear a strength, this may be where this year's Twins may be set up to improve on 2022. They appear to have more depth and players not listed (Wallner, Celestino, Garlick, Lewis, Julien and Lee) potentially able to come up and fill in as needed.
    Rotation (12.8 Combined WAR) Gray (3.0), P.Lopez (3.0), Ryan (2.4), Mahle/Maeda/Ober (4.4). Projecting games here was a bit of a challenge. Gray and Lopez's WAR values are in the range of their past two season and Ryan's projects a slight increase from last season (2.2). Mahle, Maeda and Ober all have health concerns, but the hope is that they can hold down the fort between the three of them.  Having Varland, Winder and Woods-Richardson in AAA as players ready step in also mitigates a huge drop in WAR production. There is no "horse" raising this group's WAR, just a bunch of solid contributors.
    Bullpen (6.8 Combined WAR)  Duran (2.5), J.Lopez (1.5), Jax (1.0), Thielbar (0.7) Moran (0.7), Alcala (0.4), Pagan (0), Megill (0). The biggest concerns here are Lopez producing closer to what he did in Baltimore as well as Pagan and Megill being used in situations that do not produce negative WAR. This is one area the front office could still help the 2023 Twins. A Michael Fullmer signing makes a ton of sense.
    Altogether, this projection gives the Twins 46.9 WAR as a group, enough to push them to 90+ wins for 2023. This should put them solidly into playoff consideration with the new playoff format. While some of the projections may seem optimistic, it could be argued that they are all well within historical performances and allowing for some development from younger players. This squad seems better situated to deal injuries than the past couple of years. The Twins have above average  backups for the three toughest defensive positions (Jeffers, Farmer and Taylor). While there may have been moves that the front office could have made this year to make this team better, it seems as though the floor for this squad is as high as we've seen for a few years. 
     
     
  2. Physics Guy
    Who will win the AL Central in 2021? Since the White Sox traded for Lance Lynn, added Adam Eaton to address a need in the OF and then spent big to add Liam Hendriks to their bullpen, the White Sox have been the favorite to win the division. ESPN recently posted their projected All-Stars for 2021. Let's just say it was much kinder to the White Sox:
     
    https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30833382/let-predict-2021-mlb-all-star-rosters-al-nl
     
    They projected 6 White Sox and didn't include Abreu. The Twins had a few mentions (Garver, Donaldson and Buxton) but mostly because of injury questions. Cruz was the only Twin on the list. While it does appear that the Sox may have more star power, let's analyze how the teams stack up.
     
    Let's start with the rotations, where the top 5 for the Twins are likely Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ and Dobnak. The White Sox projected top 5 are Giolito, Keuchel, Lynn, Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon/Reynaldo Lopez. The Twins had a team ERA of 3.58 and the White Sox were at 3.81. I would agree that adding Lynn (as much as it pains me) improves the Sox slightly more that Happ does the Twins. Keuchel is due for some significant regression, but Giolito should make up for some of that. Maeda isn't likely to repeat a #2 in the Cy young race season, but some continued improvement by Berrios and a full year of Pineda can make up for some of his regression. While the starters can be slotted in multiple orders, I feel confident in saying the Twins win two of the matchups and the White Sox 2 with the #5 spot being a push. Overall, I think these rotations are very comparable.
     
    The Hendriks signing for the White Sox clearly helps their bullpen, but the subtraction of Colome should not be dismissed. The White Sox rely on a younger group of relievers behind Hendriks that do have promise. Whether the Twins will have an improved bullpen this year is up for debate. Adding Colome, Robles and Anderson while removing May, Romo and Clippard would suggest a downgrade. The Twins front office and coaching staff have shown the ability to build a very solid bullpen with what sometimes looks like questionable parts. I do like the upside of Jorge Alcala and hope he can fill a role similar to Trevor May from last season. I like the top three of the Twins (Colome, Rogers and Duffey) over the Sox, but I think I would give the Sox a slight edge at this point. It does still feel like the Twins might have a Clippard-like signing to finish off their offseason.
     
    Thus far, I would give the White Sox an ever so slight advantage. Now let's analyze each position. At catcher, the White Sox may have the more complete player in Grandal, but if Garver can find some of his 2019 form I feel like the Twins have a slight edge due to their depth with Jeffers. At first it's Abreu vs Sano. It's hard to argue against last year's AL MVP, but the White Sox edge at 1B may not be as great as it appears. The 34 year old definitely benefited from the short season as he put up an OPS 150 pts higher than either of the previous two seasons. It was encouraging to see Sano play 53/60 games for the Twins this past year and it's not unreasonable to think Sano could match Abreu's output this season, although I still give Abreu the edge. The Simmons signing for the Twins helps them in multiple ways. Moving Jorge Polanco to 2B gives the Twins the edge at 2B over Nick Madrigal, although Arraez may have already had that edge. Polanco provides much more pop than Madrigal. Moving Arraez to Util also give the Twins an edge over fielding-first Danny Mendick. The White Sox have the edge at SS with the back-to-back .300 seasons from Tim Anderson over Andrelton Simmons. To round out the infield, we have the interesting case of Josh Donaldson versus Yoan Moncada. We have a pretty good idea of what Donaldson brings when healthy, but of course that is the kicker. Can he play 140 games? Moncada had a breakout season in 2019 with a .915 OPS, but struggled mightily last season, possibly due to the lingering effects of contracting coronavirus prior to the season. I'd give the edge to Moncada, but this could easily go either way. The scorecard in the infield goes 3-2 for the Sox if you include Util, but this is a close race.
     
    The outfield has some intriguing comparisons as well. Eloy Jimenez gets the edge in LF over whoever the Twins put out there. He has an all-star level bat but by all accounts should probably be a DH. Max Kepler struggled a bit in 2020 but should be able to out-produce Adam Eaton. At CF we get to compare two former #1 overall prospects in baseball. Luis Robert was on a tear to start 2020 but struggled the second half. Byron Buxton has two years in a row with a .800+ OPS, but continues to have difficulty staying on the field. Robert probably gets the edge here until Buxton proves he can stay on the field, but Robert does need to show that he can make adjustments to what the league did to him in the second half. Jake Cave is better than anything the White Sox currently have for a fourth outfielder. Let's call the OF a push leaning the Twins' way.
     
    What else is left to discuss? Don't worry, I didn't forget the Twins' biggest advantage, which is at DH. The Twins do have a significant advantage with Nelson Cruz over whoever the Sox put at DH, at least until Father Time finally catches up to Cruz. The Twins have a solid backup who will need AB, in Brent Rooker, that they can use to spell Cruz and keep him fresh. The last debate comes with team defense. This is where the Simmons signing really makes a difference. In looking at several metrics on Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, the White Sox had the edge in 2019, although the Twins were closer than you think. As a composite, it appears as though both teams were in the top 10 in MLB with the Sox being a few spots ahead of the Twins. The Twins have definitely closed that gap and possible passed up the Sox.
     
    The fact that 6 players given All-Star nods for the White Sox in the ESPN article (Giolito, Hendriks, Grandal, Anderson, Jimenez and Robert), tends to make one feel they are way ahead of the Twins. One could argue that the Twins have a near comparable player to each one of those and greater team depth. I completely understand where the national pundits are coming from, but I think the race will be neck and neck all season. If the Twins get 140 games out of Donaldson, Sano and Buxton I feel like they win the AL Central, possibly quite comfortably. Clearly the issue will be if that is possible. We will all find out in October.
  3. Physics Guy

    Getting Gonzalez AB

    By Physics Guy,

    When rumors started floating around last week about the Twins' interest in Marwin Gonzalez, I found myself quite surprised. While I still contend that the Twins would be better off spending said money on Keuchel or Kimbrel if they would sign a two or three year contract, it is hard to find fault in adding another above average bat for the lineup. My concern now is how do the Twins find 500 AB for Gonzalez when all of the starting positions are essentially spoken for.
     
    I did some digging and believe it can be done without sacrificing continued development of our younger players. Let's start with the assumption that the following players will hold down starting positions followed by the number of plate appearances I would project them to get this coming season.
     
    C - Garver, Castro - 650
    1B - Cron - 550
    2B - Schoop - 550
    SS - Polanco - 600
    3B - Sano - 550
    LF - Rosario - 600
    CF - Buxton - 550
    RF - Kepler - 600
    DH - Cruz - 550
     
    This totals up to 5200 PA for the starters. Last season the Twins tallied a little over 6100 PA not including those taken by pitchers. That leaves 900 PA for the bench. The 650 PA for the catchers is approximately what they totaled for the team last year. Since Gonzalez can essentially sub for any of those positions, I think it is easy to see that he can get to 500 plate appearances this year.
     
    Baldelli will need to be creative and use Gonzalez as a true super utility player. Looking at the projected PA, Gonzalez would need to account mostly for PA at 1B, 2B, 3B and OF. I will guess that he will play 3B the most (with Sano slotting in to take away some PA from Cron) followed closely by OF, then 2B and SS. I doubt they will actually play him at 1B much as I would guess that Gonzalez is a better 3B than Sano. If Gonzalez can perform with the bat near past levels while moving around this much it would be of great benefit to the Twins. They can keep players healthy with roughly a game off once every one or two weeks.
     
    Adding Gonzalez puts the Twins at 11 position players with the 10 above. The Twins are likely to have 13 pitchers and 12 hitters on their roster. Since Astudillo and Cave both have options, it is likely they start in AAA. In order to get to 500 PA, Gonzalez will need to be the primary sub for the OF so Cave should be in AAA. I like both Cave and Astudillo, but having options dooms them to AAA. That leaves Austin and Adrianza for the final spot. Maybe the Twins keep both at the start of the season and only have 12 pitchers, but it is likely one will hit waivers at some point. My choice would be to keep Austin as a bat off the bench, especially since we have Torreyes likely at AAA as a fallback in case we lost Adrianza on waivers. If Adrianza doesn't get claimed, the Twins have solid depth at AAA in case of injuries, possibly better depth than we've had in some time. The more I look at this signing, the more I like it. Now find a way to sign Keuchel or Kimbrel.
  4. Physics Guy
    To say that the Twins have been inactive this offseason would not be accurate. In fact, Jim Bowden of The Athletic recently gave the Twins a B- for their offseason moves thus far. No other team in the AL Central received higher than a C. While their moves have filled some of the gaps they have, I have been frustrated by the lack of a big move. Falvey and Levine clearly did not read my 2019 Blueprint.
     
    After much thought, I am starting to warm up to the Twins offseason decisions. They have added players with the potential to improve the Twins run-producing ability in CJ Cron and Jonathon Schoop. Each player fills a need on the team, both have 30 HR potential and neither limits future moves from a financial perspective. Schoop clearly had a down season last year, but I would happily take an average of his previous three. The reason for my shift in opinion is tied to WAR.
     
    In looking at last year's results, it appears that a team needs to be in the 40+ range for team WAR to be a contender for the playoffs. The moves made by the Twins front office thus far are inching the needle closer all the time. Looking at previous seasons and using predicted WAR for 2019 on Fangraphs, I made what I believe to be reasonable estimates for the Twins in 2019. This comes with the assumption that the Twins will add two more arms to the bullpen. For this exercise I have chosen Joakim Soria and Kelvin Herrera, which seems about right for the Twins.
     
    Hitters:
    Castro/Garver - combined they should be able to produce 2.0
    Cron 1.5
    Austin 1.0
    Schoop 2.5
    Polanco 2.6
    Adrianza 0.5
    Sano 2.5
    Rosario 3.2
    Buxton 2.4
    Kepler 2.5
    Cave 1.5
    Hitters' Total: 22.2
     
    Pitchers:
    Berrios 3.2
    Gibson 2.7
    Odorizzi 2.3
    Pineda 1.5
    Romero 1.0
    Soria 1.2
    Herera 0.6
    Rogers 1.3
    May 0.8
    Reed 0.5
    Mejia 0.5
    Hildenberger 0.4
    13th man 0
    Pitchers' Total: 16.0
    Overall WAR: 38.2
     
    While this doesn't get them above 40, they are within striking range. A few surprises could give them the nudge above 40. The biggest question marks in my estimates belong to Buxton and Sano. This is a big season for both players and the Twins are counting on them being productive players in their lineup. Those two, along with perhaps Berrios, provide the Twins with the most potential star power on the team. I believe that the front office is hedging their bets to see what Buxton and Sano can deliver. If they fail to deliver, I suspect Falvey and Levine sell off pieces (Gibson, Odorizzi, Schoop, relievers) in order to retool for 2020/2021 when Kirilloff, Lewis and Graterol are expected to arrive. If Buxton and Sano are up to the task, the Twins will have the ability to take on salary and add a piece or two to push them towards the playoffs. It may not be the path I would have chosen, but I can at least see some reason in the choices they have made.
  5. Physics Guy

    2019 Blueprint

    By Physics Guy,

    The Twins are at a crossroads. 2017 provided fans with the promise of the future as they surprised many to make the Wild Card game and expectations were high for 2018. Needless to say, this past season did not end as many hoped, although at 78-84 they only finished 7 games behind 2017. They had a horrible 15 walk-off losses this past year and had to deal with what would kindly be called disappointing seasons from two supposed cornerstones for the future in Buxton and Sano. Improving their "luck" in late innings and improvement from Buxton and Sano could easily lead to a better than .500 record in 2019.
     
    With that being said, I want nothing to do with a .500 record. The Twins either need to decide that they have the nucleus of a contender and supplement it with additional pieces or they need to retool for 2020/2021 when the next wave of prospects arrive. They certainly have the payroll flexibility to do so. I do not want to see them just fill holes with mediocre free agents and have a ceiling of 85 wins. While I felt the front office did a good job of adding pieces last offseason to potentially improve the squad, Falvey acknowledged that adding people on 1 and 2 year contracts does not necessarily get them to "buy in" to the team. If they are not going to invest significantly in the team, I would be for doing as Tom Froemming suggested:
    http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/offseason-blueprint-changing-the-course-r7325
     
    With that in mind, here is my blueprint for the Twins front office in 2019. (Prices for arbitration eligible players is from MLBTR estimates and FA prices are estimated from TD Offseason handbook and John Heyman's article.)
     
    The first move for the Twins involves upgrading the rotation. The Twins should attempt to entice the D-backs in to trading Zack Greinke for Jake Odorizzi, Nick Gordon and Stephen Gonsalves. The added salary would be somewhat offset with the departure of Odorizzi who is likely due 9-10M in arbitration. Adding Gio Gonzalez or J.A. Happ would be cheaper secondary options that would put a lefty in the rotation.
     
    The are many question marks in the infield and I will start with the assumption that Joe Mauer is going to retire. The Twins will need to fill spots at 1B and either 2B or SS with Jorge Polanco filling the other role. I feel Polanco and the Twins would be better served with a move to 2B. As a result I propose signing Jose Iglesias (3yrs/24M) to improve their defense up the middle. To fill 1B and give the Twins a fallback option at 3B, they should sign Josh Donaldson (3yrs/60M). Playing more at 1B and DH (and subbing at 3B) would hopefully keep Donaldson's potent RH bat in the lineup. Tyler Austin would be the backup 1B and also serve as a DH.
     
    Having a potent and deep bullpen seems to be a necessity these days. Riding his best bullpen arms to the point of overuse was one of my biggest criticisms of Paul Molitor. Baldelli needs to be provided with a deeper bullpen. I propose signing David Robertson (2 yrs, 22M) and Joe Kelly (3yrs, 24M). Along with the returning players, this would be the deepest pen they have had in years.
     
    These changes would leave the Twins with the following roster:
    C - Garver (0.6M), Castro (8M) I see this as a platoon favoring Garver.
    1B - Donaldson (20M), Austin (0.6M)
    2B - Polanco (0.6M)
    SS - Iglesias (8M), Adrianza (1.8M)
    3B - Sano (3.1M)
    OF - Rosario (5M), Buxton (1.2M), Kepler (3.2M), Cave (0.6M)
     
    SP - Greinke (35M), Berrios (0.6M), Gibson (7.9M), Pineda (8M), Romero/Mejia/Stewart/Littell (0.6M)
    RP - Robertson (11M), Kelly (8M), Reed (8.5M), Rogers (1.6M), May (1.1M), Hildenberger, Moya and Magill (all at 0.6M)
     
    They will owe buyouts of 7.95 M for Hughes, Santana and Morrison. That will put the Twins at approximately 145 M, which is just above the median (141M) and mean (139M) payrolls in MLB for 2018. They would have 24.5M coming off the books for 2020 to cover growing payroll for young players. I realize that this is not likely, but it also is not that much more than what they originally committed to 2018. If the Twins are not willing to commit to such a plan, I would much rather they trade players like Gibson and Odorizzi and add assets to build for 2020/2021. I do not want the front office to repeat their approach of 2018.
  6. Physics Guy

    Prospects for 2018

    By Physics Guy,

    2017 was the season Twins fans have been waiting for. Although 2015 did offer a bit of a respite from several dreary seasons, it didn't feel as sustainable as last year's performance did. There are many reasons to think that the Twins may be on the road to a prolonged run at the playoffs. Our regular lineup has an excellent mix of productive veterans as well as young players establishing themselves, ranking right up there with the productive teams of the early 2000's. With this year's free agent signings, the bullpen has significant depth. This should allow them to bring up youngsters when they are ready rather than forcing them in due to need as we saw at times last year. The rotation has the potential to be solid, with the caveat that the Twins sign or trade for someone at least of the Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn ilk. There is great reason for hope in Twins Territory.
     
    With that in mind, I want to take a stab at something I attempted prior to the 2013 season. 2012 saw the Twins finish 66-96 and there was going to be plenty of opportunity for players to come up from the minors in 2013. I made an attempt to predict which players were most likely to come up the the big leagues that season. It was my spin on a Top 10 Prospect list, but focused on who could most help in 2013.
     
    http://twinsdaily.com/blog/324/entry-2284-prospects-for-2013/
     
    Jump ahead to 2018 and this becomes a much more challenging task. The 2018 Twins have significantly fewer holes that the 2013 squad. It was a challenge to come up with ten players who have a chance to debut and rank them according to their potential to help this year's team. All players on this list would be making their big league debut.
     
    #10) DJ Baxendale - RP - Not a sexy pick to contribute to a deep bullpen, but posted sub-3.00 ERA seasons the past two years. I could see the Twins bringing him up as a long reliever during a stretch where the bullpen is overworked. The Twins used 21 pitchers as only relievers last year.
     
    #9) Mason Melotakis - RP - Could this be the year he finally breaks through? Melotakis will be 27 this year and while he continues to have relatively high K rates he needs to step up soon or he will be passed up. He is already well down the list of LH options.
     
    #8) Zack Littell - SP - Littell makes the list only because the Twins used 15 different starters last year. If it happens again, Littell likely makes his debut. He doesn't have the ceiling that some other prospects in the organization may have, but he has shown continued improvement as he's worked his way through the minors. In 2017 he went 19-1, stuck out 142 in 157 IP and had a 2.12 ERA. He only reached AA for the second half on the season, so a debut would most likely occur after the All-Star Break.
     
    #7) LaMonte Wade - OF - Wade is the first non-pitcher on the list, mainly because of the youth and strength of the Twins lineup. I just don't anticipate much opportunity for players to move up this year. If the Twins were to need an OF, Wade would likely be the first option among players who would be making their MLB debut. I could see it happening in the second half of the season. Wade appears to be a similar player to Zach Granite, albeit with more upside.
     
    6) Tyler Kinley - RP - This comes with the assumption that the Twins either decide to keep him on the 25 man roster (doubtful) or are able to work out a trade to keep him. He assumes the position Josh Bard may have had if still with the Twins. I still don't quite get exposing Bard when it is believed Kinley has similar velocity but with less command.
     
    5) Tyler Jay - RP - Jay would most likely be higher on this list, but health has limited his progression through the system. Jay is the first person on this list that I think is likely to get a callup this year.
     
    4) Jake Reed - RP - Reed is my highest rated reliever on the list. He posted a 2.13 ERA in 37 IP between AA and AAA last year. Given the current makeup of the bullpen, I think he would be next in line after Busenitz, Curtis and Chargois (all have already debuted) to get a promotion to the Twins in 2018. Given Chargois' health history, he may only be behind Busenitz and Curtis.
     
    3) Nick Gordon - Infield - Gordon is the only other non-pitcher on the list and would likely fill any needs for an infielder at Target Field. The only other option I could see making a debut this season is Levi Michael and I think we all know what the chances of that are. Gordon has not lit the world on fire thus far in the minors, nor has he been terrible. He just continues to climb up the ranks, spending his entire age-21 season at AA posting a .749 OPS.
     
    2) Fernando Romero - SP - Romero has possibly the highest upside of starters in AA and AAA in the organization. He went 11-9 with a 3.53 ERA and 120 K in 125 IP this past year at Chattanooga. Health seems to be the only thing holding him back. He could use some seasoning a AAA before his debut sometime this season.
     
    1) Stephen Gonsalves - SP - Gonsalves has the most experience of all the prospect starting pitchers and arguably the best production. He has a career ERA of 2.39 and has maintained high K rates throughout the his ascent through the minors. He got a taste of AAA this past season and will likely start there in 2018. He could be the first option for a callup, but might have to wait in line behind Trevor May, Aaron Slegers or Felix Jorge before debuting sometime after June 1. He is also the most likely player on this list to open the season with the Twins if they don't sign another starting pitcher.
  7. Physics Guy

    Twins 2014 Rotation

    By Physics Guy,

    It seems a bit early for this, but I think the Twins need to be aggressive early in free agency this year. Jim Pohlad has made it clear that the bank is open if Terry Ryan decides to spend money in free agency this offseason. As John Bonnes recently wrote, the Twins could easily have $25-$30M to spend on payroll this season.
     
    Twins Daily - TwinsDaily Video: How Much Pitching Can The Twins Afford
     
    I would like to expand upon this and propose what I would like the Twins to do this offseason. I am working under the assumption that Terry Ryan will actually spend money in free agency this offseason. While this is clearly debatable, I will attempt to work within the parameters of spending less than $30M.
     
    First off, lets discuss what the Twins have currently signed for the rotation. Samuel Deduno, while finishing the season on the DL, looks to be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. Kevin Correia was certainly not a world-beater this season, but I would argue he was worth the contract he signed. I have no problem with him being our #4 or #5 starter. Kyle Gibson struggled in his first stint with the Twins but still holds promise of being a #3 or maybe even a #2. Other pitchers who started this season who could pitch in the rotation, in order of likelihood, are Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and Andrew Albers.
     
    The Twins should open the 2014 season with the following rotation:
     
    #1) FA pitcher TBNL
    #2) FA pitcher TBNL
    #3) Deduno
    #4) Gibson
    #5) Correia
     
    If Deduno is not healthy, Gibson and Correia slide up and Diamond takes the #5 slot. Meyer and May could also be in the discussion, but I would rather see them start in AAA this season.
     
    As for the TBNL (to be named later) FA acquisitions, lets start by weeding out the pitchers who Terry Ryan won't sign.
     
    Matt Garza - He will most likely bring in the highest per year salary this offseason. Let's get serious here. Do we really think after last season that Ryan is going after the top of the market guy.
     
    Masahiro Tananka - While his average yearly salary might be lower than Garza's, there is this little issue of a $40-$60M posting fee. Despite what he has said publicly, I'm not sure Pohlad could stomach that.
     
    Ervin Santana - He likely gets a qualifying offer, so I doubt the Twins will want to sacrifice their 2nd rounder in a supposed deep draft.
     
    Hiroki Kuroda - At his age, I doubt he would want to sign with a rebuilding team.
     
    AJ Burnett - It sounds like he is considering retirement if he can't pitch in Pittsburgh.
     
    Tim Lincecum - He continues to regress and I can't see his body holding out much longer for a pitcher who has so much effort in his delivery. He just scares me.
     
    So, who should the Twins sign? For the #1 spot in the rotation, I have two options. My top choice would be Dan Haren and the second would be Ubaldo Jimenez. Both should be available for $10-$15M per season.
     
    At first glance, Haren had a poor season. He finished 10-14 with a 4.67 ERA. However, his FIP and xFIP were 4.09 and 3.67 and he finished with his highest K% in three years. His numbers were horrible in June, but he had an ERA of 3.52 and WHIP of 1.017 after the All-Star break. I would like to see them sign him for three years at $39-45M.
     
    While Jimenez continues to walk batters at a scary rate, he clearly figured something out this season. Like Haren, Jimenez would give us a pitcher who can actually strike batters out. Signing Jimenez would have the added impact of taking a top pitcher from AL Central rival, the Cleveland Indians. Since he is younger, I would consider giving him a four year deal maybe in the $52-$56M range.
     
    For the #2 spot in the rotation, I would go after the following pitchers in this order: Nolasco, Kazmir, Arroyo, Josh Johnson, Phil Hughes, Scott Feldman, and Jason Vargas. Nolasco and Kazmir appear at the top of this list due to production and K rate. Nolasco is likely to receive the largest payday of this group and might approach Haren and Jimenez. I think he is likely to resign with the Dodgers. I have Arroyo ahead of Johnson due to his higher floor. I like the upside of Johson, but his injury history scares me. I would be more willing to gamble on Johnson if I knew Deduno was healthy or Meyer was nearly ready for the bigs. Phil Hughes' numbers away from Yankee Stadium give me reason to believe he needs a change in scenery. Feldman and Vargas would be acceptable fall back positions, but seem a bit similar to Correia.
     
    So idealy, the Twin start 2014 season with a rotation of:
     
    Haren, Nolasco, Deduno, Gibson and Correia.
     
    If they were to sign both Haren and Nolasco, I doubt they would have much money left to spend elsewhere on the roster. I would be fine with that. Cleary the rotation is problems 1,2 and possibly 3 for the Twins. If they don't figure it out, nothing else much matters. Hopefully Ryan learns from last years inactivity and doesn't get caught without a chair when the music stops
  8. Physics Guy

    Prospects for 2013

    By Physics Guy,

    It has been a tough offseason for many readers of Twins Daily. What started out with great promise, trades involving Span and Revere, has ended with a big thud. In the eyes of many, the Twins failed to shore up their biggest weakness from last year, the rotation. As I read thread after thread on the Twins Talk forum over the past couple of months there was a decided negativity about the direction of the Twins. Twins fans have felt that Terry Ryan did not live up to his pledge to improve the rotation. While I am disappointed that more wasn't done, I think we are in better shape now than we were at the end of the season.
     
    As they say, hope springs eternal. I am encouraged by the positivity displayed on the forum over the past couple of weeks. Maybe it is due to Spring Training. ESPN released a Top 100 Prospects list as well as organizational rankings that gave Twins fans something to be positive about. It's easy to get excited about these prospects, but many are years from contributing for the Twins (Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler).
     
    In that vein, I thought I would put a different spin on the Top 10 Prospects list. I have put together a list of the top 10 players that I think have a chance to break in with the Twins this year. I'm stretching the term "prospect" for some of them, so bear with me. The rankings are based on probability that they can make it to the show as well as their chances of performing well. I have eliminated players who have spent significant time in the majors already such as all of the MI candidates as well as Robertson (40GP). So here goes my first blog attempt:
     
    #10) Alex Meyer - I don't see it happening this season, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. At best Meyer would be looking at a September callup. Meyer is only 3 months younger that Trevor May, but could use more seasoning. It would take a breakout season for him to get a look.
     
    #9) Chris Colabello - He will be 29 this season and is too old to truly be a prospect, but I think he stands a chance as a bat off the bench if and only if Morneau and/or Willingham get traded. It would be nice to have a RH bat with some pop to platoon with Parmelee on occasion against tough LHP.
     
    #8) Anthony Slama - Put me in the "Free Slama" camp. I still don't understand why he hasn't been given a chance. Jeff Gray gets 52 IP last year??? That being said, the Twins don't seem to think he can get big-league hitters out. I think several of Roenicke, Pressley, Swarzak, Burnett and Robertson would have to fail for him to get a chance.
     
    #7) Trevor May - He threw 100+ innings in AA ball last year. If he can find his command this year, he could push his way up the pecking order fairly quickly. He will be 23 this season and shouldn't be blocked by the retreads sitting in AAA. Meyer seems to have slightly higher upside, but May seems to be higher up the ladder at this point.
     
    #6) Caleb Thielbar - Following a solid showing in AA and AAA last year, Thielbar was added to the 40-man roster this offseason. It appears as though he has passed Slama up in the eyes of the Twins. Like Slama, it would take some bullpen issues for him to be given a chance this year.
     
    #5 Chris Herrmann - At this point we start to get to players with a reasonable chance of making it to the show. If either Doumitt or Mauer were to get hurt, Herrmann should be the replacement. If Butera were to get hurt, I would guess the Twins turn to Rivera instead. Signing Doumitt to an extension hurt Herrmann's chances this year. His OF versatility certainly helps.
     
    #4 Oswaldo Arcia - Arcia had a breakout season at AA last year and is likely close to being ready. If he were called up, he should be playing everyday. A Morneau or Willingham trade/injury or ineffectiveness/injury for Parmelee would be the likely reason. Right now he is probably blocked and should start at AAA.
     
    #3 Joe Benson - I hesitate putting Benson ahead of Arcia, since I think Arcia is the better prospect. This is more about opportunity. Benson has the ability to play CF which is open for the taking. If he can re-establish his status, he has a decent chance this year. His arm and power also play in RF which helps his cause if Mastroianni grabs the starting CF gig.
     
    #2 Kyle Gibson - Gibson would have been #1 at the end of the season. By all accounts he threw well at the end of the season, actually throwing harder than he did prior to surgery. The surgery is what will hold him back. He's as near a lock as anybody to play for the Twins this year. He just may not start the season with them to control his innings.
     
    #1 Aaron Hicks - Ladies and Gentlemen, your next CF and leadoff hitter for the Twins. Barring a major setback in Spring Training, I'd have to say he's nearly a lock to start the season with the Twins. This pick is all about opportunity. The trades made by the Twins indicate they feel he is ready. He finally started showing the potential the Twins felt he had this past summer in New Britain. His minor league numbers compare favorably to Torii Hunter with more plate discipline.
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