Ben Collin

Once I get the 2010 data crunched and see if the results are similar to the 2011 data. I'll post it at my blog. The wind is really the key factor with all of this.

Yes the downtown will have an impact on the wind flow but you also have to remember that wind might not be representative of the air that is flowing at a higher elevation over the top of the stadium. The funneling of air was exactly what I was talking about with the plaza. I've noticed games where the LF flags are blowing in but the plaza flag poles are blowing in as well. This is my fascination with it all. In regard to using the airport and buildings screwing with the wind and perhaps not being representative. It's very possible but it's all we got. I actually emailed the hittracker guy and he does the exact same thing when determining weather variables. Luckily for him, he does it as needed where I've had to dig up old data and do some data mining to get what he used. My data seems to match up with his in terms of wind aided home runs. I really think the height of the walls surrounding most of the ballpark are high enough that the winds up at those levels aren't impacted as much by buiildings. Now it could have the low level winds ramming up against the walls and flowing over but I think the urban area's biggest impact comes from the plaza. Another thing I wonder about is something called rotors with the wind blowing over the stadium and into the park. Think of a pickup truck in a test where they have the smoke blowing over it to show the streamlining of airflow over it. Now look at right behind the cab of the truck and how the air comes rushing down into the bed of the truck. That's another possibility as to why the ball dies at Target Field. The air flows over the top of the ballpark and then subsides somewhere in the park, thus killing the flight of the ball. All theories I have but I'm working on it.

I've been doing some research on Target Field weather and home runs. By going through the old gameday xml files, I've extracted the home runs and the time they were hit. I then used the KMSP ASOS (Airport) weather station archived obs to find the weather conditions closest to the time of the HR. My initial data is pretty clear that of the 126 home runs hit at Target Field last year, a northerly to northwesterly component of the wind was present for 42 home runs. I have a lot more work to do to break down the data but I found that interesting. I'll have to put in some logic to figure out if it's a leftie or not and see what happens. One thing to note is I can't tell you if it was the wind or a coincidence that it was windy on days that pitchers who allowed HR's pitched. Would be nice if I had fly ball outs to measure against to judge carry given a wind direction. Regarding lefties having a power struggle, theoretically it makes perfect sense given the wind current that would be drawn in from the plaza. As air is leaving the ballpark, wind has to rush in to replace it and that plaza offers the path of least resistance for air to flow back into the field. I have no proof that this is the reason why lefties have such hard time hitting home runs but just a thought. I'll have more info on my Target Field home run climate data some day soon. I still have to do 2010 as well. It won't be anything groundbreaking, just comparing weather conditions during home run hits. If we could set up a computer model to model currents in the park, now that would be cool.

It's interesting that Ryan said that Casilla at SS "didn't really work out". Didn't we all watch Casilla become the player we all hoped he would become when he took over at short during May/June/July? I swear we were all in awe that he finally showed some confidence out in the field. In fact, I think a series in Kansas City is where he broke out and played smooth short stop (including an awesome play at the plate on a tag) and then it started reflecting at the plate. According to Bref, at short he had .736 OPS in 36 games. His fielding struggled initially but right when Casilla was "figuring it out", Nishi got healthy and Gardy put Nishi back in at shortstop and Casilla to second. Nishi should have played second, why ruin a good thing (at the time)? I say if Carroll looks like he's 38, swap him and Casilla. The experiment should not be over with for Alexi at short, not with the options the Twins have right now at that position. Then again, he may have only played a respectable SS for a shorter period of time than I remember.

Did you talk to Terry Ryan? On the surface your theory is plausible but I wouldn't call it a foolish gamble. I'd call it Twins Baseball.

I still haven't had a chance to get down there, maybe next year. If you're wondering about how nice the weather will be, I added the Grapefruit League to http://bleacherweather.com. Looks mostly sunny with a chance of sunburn.

Wow, congratulations fellas!

Testing......He doesn't complain and takes the ball. Gardy probably wishes he would go up there and spin it more.