Parker Hageman

According to sources, Twins general manager Terry Ryan is getting more and more tired of having to dress up as former Indians executive Derek Falvey every morning at spring training, and is considering other options. Ryan, 63, hatched the deception last year as the Twins slid to the worst season in franchise history, but reportedly is tired of the extra work that the disguise involves.
 
Friends say that Ryan now grouses throughout his daily two-hour makeup session, which transforms him into a reasonable facsimile of Falvey, who until recently served as the general manager in Cleveland, where his partnership with manager Terry Francona helped return the woebegone franchise to the World Series in 2016. Ryan is also increasingly worried about the potential legal ramifications of kidnapping Falvey, former Rangers executive Thad Levine, and Minnesota director of baseball research Jack Goin, locking the three in a basement, and hiring actors to portray the latter two.
 
"Terry just wonders if he's doing the right thing here, what with the three counts of felony kidnapping he'll no doubt face," said a source. "Plus, the disguise is really starting to irritate his skin, especially the hairpiece."
 
Sources say that Twins president Dave St. Peter okayed the scheme midway through the 2016 season, allowing Ryan and company to keep control of the Twins' dealings for future seasons, while portraying a changing front office to disgruntled fans. St. Peter and others have been concerned about Ryan's offseason dealings, which were so Ryan-like as to raise questions from a fanbase that has long been used to the GM's over-cautious, cheap strategies.
 
Insiders say that Ryan is considering hiring a third actor to portray Falvey, while officially returning to the team as a "special advisor," thus removing the need for the morning disguise routine. Ryan has also toyed with the idea of "outing" himself by awarding a roster spot to a terrible veteran pitcher at the expense of a prospect, but - after signing Hector Santiago, Matt Belisle, and Ryan Vogelsong - is unsure how much more he could do.
 
"He's just getting tired," said the source. "If he signs Jason Bartlett again, then you'll know - he wants people to find him out. Until then, he'll have to keep going with the ruse."

Let me preface what will undoubtedly be a long entry by saying I am a Dozier fan. I have spoken to him at Spring Training a couple of times and like the young man. I believe he has been the Twins MVP for each of the last four seasons (counting this one) and I have no doubt that he is the team's best player at this point. Certainly, he isn't flawless, but the Twins need more players like Brian Dozier, not less.
 
Over the course of this long, horrible season, Brian Dozier has often been a hot topic of conversation in Twins Territory. He isn't shy about stepping up to a microphone, my wife and daughters think he's good-looking and he's been a regular with the club as their second baseman for four years. If someone casually follows the Twins, they know who Dozier is, so it figures that he would be a topic of conversation.
 
Let's see why Dozier has been discussed so much and what I think should be the conclusion for the topic: First of all, as the Twins started the season, Dozier couldn't get it going. After a bad second half in 2015, Dozier came out of the gate slow in 2016. Through all of April and May, Dozier barely reached .200 and the signature power was lacking. Had the league figured him out? Was the 28 year old (turned 29 in mid-May) regressing already? Should he be benched or put at the bottom of the order? My thought, then and now, was that it is a long season. If a guy is a good player, he'll come out of a funk. Robbie Cano had a similar stretch at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015 and Cano might be a Hall-of-Famer. Along for the ride early in the season was the question whether BD was too pull-happy and if he used the whole field, he would be a more consistent and productive hitter. My thought was that Dozier needed to be able to hit the ball with authority when he was pitched away and as the season has progressed, he has accumulated some oppo hits and several to the middle of the field, the key being that he hit the ball hard, not a lazy popup or routine fly ball.
 
Moving on, Dozier has spent most of the season hitting #1 or #2. Many have thought it wasn't ideal for a guy whose calling card is big power for his position to hit first or second. My thought then was that the Twins simply didn't have a better option. Dozier takes some of the longest at-bats on the team, he's walked a fair amount since arriving in the majors and he's a good base runner who doesn't clog the bases for those behind him. Ideally, he should have hit lower in the order to make a few more of his homers multi-run shots and I think that where Dozier hits in the lineup in 2017 will be a hot controversial topic if he is in a Twins' uniform next year.
 
As the season rolled toward the All-Star break, the call to sell and rebuild the Twins included Dozier's name prominently. He had some value and the club is/was going nowhere in '16, so cashier him for a prospect or two and let Jorge Polanco handle second base. In June and July, Dozier recovered from his slow start. He put up a great line in June, posting an OPS for the month in excess of 1.000, he slowed in July, hitting only .240 but still putting up an OPS of .824. Trade Dozier at the deadline? Didn't happen and IMHO shouldn't have happened. He hasn't slowed down much since his monster June and with a team-friendly contract and relative youth, his value should only be higher in the off-season or at next year's trade deadline.
 
Another topic that has emerged is defense. After a truly stout year in 2013, Dozier's defense has been categorized as below average by most metrics. While I don't believe Dozier is elite defensively, my eyes tell me he is in the average range. He makes a few outstanding plays (probably more than any other Twins player) and doesn't get to some balls he should, perhaps because of shifting, maybe because the position of shortstop has been in flux since he became a second baseman, maybe because in three of the last four years, the team never had a shot at contention. I don't know. In checking BB Ref, Dozier lags in zone rating, but is above average in runs saved. I see it as a wash, making Dozier average in the field. I'm waiting for someone to refute this, but in the final analysis, defense probably is an "eyes of the beholder" topic.
 
Since the All-Star break, Brian Dozier has been en fuego. He's hitting .320, with an OPS of 1.091 and a mlb-leading 21 homers. I guess that puts to rest the "first half player" meme that was circulating among the diehard fans remaining. The question that stems from his performance both the cold April and May and his elite performance since is what to expect going forward. I have turned over in my mind what the most likely trajectory of Dozier's career figures to be. One extreme is Dan Uggla, who like Dozier wasn't highly regarded, got a chance in his mid-twenties and became a star in large part because of his power numbers. Uggla fell off a cliff in his early thirties. An opposing example is Jeff Kent. Kent was an okay player, but not even a full-time regular until he was 29. Starting from age 30, Kent won an MVP, was an All-Star five times with three different teams and posted OPS+ numbers over 119 every year until he was 39. This seems to be the extremes for power-hitting second basemen. Is Dozier going to be productive for most of another decade or is regression going to meet him around his 30th birthday? My answer is that no one knows for sure. It appears to me that Dozier has made adjustments to become a more complete hitter without diminishing his best asset--home run power. IMHO, it makes him a candidate to sustain high-end performance, although the end of 2015 and April-May of this year give a good argument that he could turn into a pumpkin at any time.
 
In the last few weeks as the tumult in my life has moved Twins baseball on the back burner, I've managed to check the box scores, cluck over the disastrous pitching and watch highlights of games. Dozier has been front and center continuing his power surge. He now projects to exceed 40 homers and if he hits just one more long ball, he will have hit more in a single season than any Twin since Harmon in 1970. 40 homers would be a Top Ten season in franchise history dating back to the Senators who started playing at the turn of the 20th century. Only Harmon and Roy Sievers (once) have ever hit 40 homers in a single season in franchise history. Dozier is projected to score and drive in over 100 runs, also a rare feat, especially for guy who has hit first or second most of the season. He may or may not make 40 homers, 100 RBI or 100 runs, but on such a bad team those numbers stand out big and bold. Although I'm not a big fan of WAR, it does represent a quick and dirty assessment of value and Dozier's 5.6 WAR for this season is in the Top Ten in the league. Because the season has been so bad, I don't think Dozier has gotten the attention he deserves for his huge season. He won't win a Silver Slugger or MVP, he won't win the HR championship or set any other records, so there hasn't been any national coverage, but his overall season and particularly his production since June has been off the charts.
 
Now in the season's final month, most Twins fans are thinking about the future (with good reason). Augmenting a terrible rotation is Priority One and trading Brian Dozier to get pitching help makes sense, since his value should be at an all-time high. This argument is buttressed by the play of Polanco, who has hit over .300, showing good on-base skills, but a questionable glove at short or third. I believe Jorge Polanco is best suited to second base and I believe adding him for Dozier wouldn't be all bad since Polanco is a switch hitter and wouldn't be prone to long slumps with his swing and approach. However, unless the payoff is monumental, Brian Dozier should be the Twins second baseman next year. He has had a season for the ages despite the wreckage around him, he's only 29 and if the last 100 days are an indication, he might get even better. Finally, he's been a solid citizen off the field. If the club wants somebody as the face of the franchise, they could do worse than Mr. Dozier.
 
Just a couple more thoughts before I summarize--Dozier has been durable. Since becoming the team's second baseman, he hasn't been disabled and has missed only a handful of games with injuries. Secondly, my observation is that he is a good teammate. He doesn't sulk, cheers for his mates, appears to like their company off the field (loved the State Fair video) and despite having strong religious views, doesn't put that in the face of his teammates or the media.
 
I have mentioned many of these thoughts in previous threads on the forums of Twins Daily. I find this player to be fascinating, especially in light of his minor league career and low status when drafted. I think Brian Dozier is a fine player who hasn't gotten the appreciation he deserves for this, his best season. I will continue to be a Dozier fan, hopefully as he continues to be a Minnesota Twin, but even if he's traded. In the event that he is traded, I will be pulling for the players acquired in return and hope they make the Twins better.

Your dose of history from my vat of Twins facts / folklore.
 
It's the Mickey Mantle Homerun Video, from the game of August 22, 1968.
 
The Bomber Bully deposited Twins lefty Jim Merritt's curve into the lower, leftfield stands at Metropolitan Stadium, in Bloomington.
 
More importantly, it was his swan song, his arrivederci to Minnesota fans. Check it out.
 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCJJTFeKXSo
 
Play-by-play guys and color commentators have an important job. For many, they are the trusted source of information when watching a baseball game on TV, or listening on the radio.
 
It's only natural that you'd expect the things they say to be true. But occasionally they get it wrong. And sometimes, they get it really wrong.
 
When Jim Anderson, founder of MAX Bats, heard Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven opine against the use of maple bats during one of the Twins games he was watching in 2008, he decided he had to let them know they had it wrong.
 
During a Michael Cuddyer at bat, Cuddyer took a big hack at an inside pitch and his barrel went flying over the third base dugout. Commentators Bremer and Blyleven immediately attacked maple bats, saying they needed to ban them immediately.
 
Anderson was shocked. "You've got to be kidding me ... Michael Cuddyer only swings ash and I can't believe you don't know this," said Anderson. "These guys don't all swing maple. Just because a bat breaks that way doesn't mean it's a maple."
 
According to Anderson, the bat breaking issues had nothing to do with the species of wood in the bats, but everything to do with the shape of the bat and the weight. "If a guy's swinging a big barrel ash bat that's a minus 3.5, you're going to have problems," he said.
 
Anderson immediately went up to his home office and wrote a letter explaining the issues, and listing what everybody in the Twins clubhouse swings. "A lot of media was saying a lot of things about maple bats that just weren't true," said Anderson.
 
The MAX Bats founder went on to expand on the letter and eventually he was able to get the letter to the MLBPA and was asked to create a more in-depth report on maple bats. "So I pounded out my manifesto on maple bats," said Anderson. "I got a lot of people to understand why bats break ... it's not a maple bat issue, it's how bats are made."
 
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It was another beautiful weekend for baseball in sunny Southwest Florida. The baseball gods were smiling down as there was a rematch of last weekends pitching prospect phenoms of Stephen Gonsalves of the Twins vs 17 year old wunderkid Anderson Espinoza. Before the matchup, I got a little video of Gonsalves warming up in the bullpen where he appeared a little wild. After his two innings of pitching, where he showed off his plus changeup that upticked his 90-92 mph fast and the feel of a good curveball (~74 mph). When I asked about his bullpen warmups, he said he wasn't feeling the slider so scraped it for the outing. When asked to order his comfortability with his pitches Stephen said usually it's a FB/CH/SL/CV order as his curveball is a fourth pitch offering that he's working on to give the hitters another look. As soon as Instructional League is over with Gonsalves said he'll shut it down pitching wise until January when he'll start long tossing and by February he'll be ready for his bullpen sessions, in the meantime he'll be ramping up his workout schedule.
 

Making an appearance over the weekend was Twins' masher Adam Brett Walker II, he's only gotten bigger since I saw him in Spring Training, truly a man-child. Walker was impressive at the plate working deep counts, making pitchers work while taking his big cuts. Adam left the game on Friday after four at bats with slight soreness in his wrist but was good enough to play on Saturday while maning leftfield at Fenway South.
He got to face some advanced pitching in BoSox prospects Anderson Espinoza, Logan Allen, and Michael Kopech before he heads out to the Arizona Fall League to face even better competition.  
Another prospect in town getting some reps before the AFL was righty power reliever Jake Reed. Reed looked real good at times in his one inning outing showing off a nasty slider with a hard 95mph fastball yet having a little command issues.
 

Yet one Twins prospect got the lion's share of the praise from the 20 or so scouts that were on hand this weekend, and that would be SS Nick Gordon. Gordon sat out on Friday but played SS and batted second on Saturday. The scouts I talked to raved about Nick, one AL East scout echoed the same sentiments I heard from BoSox coach Joe Oliver in that Nick's going to be better than his older brother Dee. The comp that the scout put on him might be unfair but should make Twins' fan overjoyed was that of pinstripe legend Derek Jeter. The scout elaborated for me that Gordon has all the tools across the board (he's going to stay at SS, can get on base, can steal, can hit and has some pop that he'll grow into), has great leadership, and great overall makeup.
 

Other tidbits from Instructs, Mike Cederoth has a very "unique" delivery if you've never seen it, where most pitchers push off the rubber, Mike takes a little hop and actually pushes off an inch or two in front of the rubber. The Red Sox players/coaches were shouting from the bench that "he's cheating" but the umpire said he was within the guidelines of "the book". By doing so, Cederoth is able to increase his extension and release point which in turn makes that 93 mph look like it's 95 mph.
 

Lamonte Wade shows an advanced approach at the plate, working counts and puts good wood on the ball often; keep on eye on him. Tyree Davis is itching to get on the ballfield and from the sounds of it might be ready for the last week of Instructs. If you don't know, Davis injured his elbow and elected for rehab for the torn joint instead of surgery. Tyree has bulked up while he's been off the field, adding 20 lb of muscle; he wants to play winter ball but is unsure if he'll get the okay from management. Yorman Landa saw some game action that had his fastball at 94-95mph and threw for two innings. Pitchers on Friday included Stephen Gonsalves (2IP start), Yorman Landa (2IP), Alex Robinson, Logan Lombana, and Johan Quezada. Pitchers on Saturday included Sam Clay (4IP start), Brandon Poulson, Jake Reed, Mike Theofanopoulos, Mike Cederoth, and Rich Condeelis.
 
I'll be back next weekend as the Twins wrap up their Instructional League play and players either head home for the winter or off to Arizona, Mexico, Austraila, or the Caribbean for more playing time.

Kyle Cody
Cody Tyler
Jay Kyle
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First, the results. Then, how in the heck I got them. We’ll use Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to assess how well the Twins have drafted in the first round from 2003 to 2011 compared to the rest of the league.
 
From 2003-2011, the Twins’ first-round picks were:
23rd in expected WAR per pick. This is an indication of their consistently low draft position due to successful teams and supplemental round picks.
15th in total expected WAR. The Twins make up ground here due to the additional picks they gained in the supplemental round as compensation for losing free agents.
19th in actual WAR generated. The Twins draft picks from 2003-2011 have produced WAR at a lower rate than the league average.
19th in pick efficiency. This most directly ties to “how well they drafted” after accounting for both draft position and total number of picks. I’m defining pick efficiency as the ratio of actual WAR to expected WAR.
 
This has certainly had an impact on the poor results we’ve seen out of the team from 2011-2014. Many other avenues of talent acquisition exist, but for teams like the Twins and many others, the acquisition of amateurs plays a large role. The draft goes much deeper than the first round, but failing to get significant production there can be quite the challenge to overcome.
 
It’s amazing how a Mike Trout or a Clayton Kershaw can make your team look good at first round draft picks, as seen by the Angels and Dodgers. The Red Sox did poorly from 2006 going forward as shown in Parker’s recent analysis, but they get credit for Jacoby Ellsbury and a few others here. The Diamondbacks did well, but traded away Scherzer, J. Upton and Stephen Drew – their top 3 performing picks. You might also notice a pretty strong correlation between the teams at the bottom of the list and the teams that have stunk in recent years. Sure would hate to be a Phillies fan – that organization has managed to get negative WAR out of their first rounds picks – yow-ouuch.
 
The Twins didn’t hit any homers with their first round picks in this timeframe. However, expectations needed to be tempered in the first place. They’ve underperformed even to that lowered standard, but this analysis doesn’t show them to be among the very worst either.
 
Smack-dab middle of the pack in total expected WAR + below average pick efficiency + trading away the draft pick that represented over a third of the actual WAR generated (Garza) for a terrible left fielder = very little visible MLB production for the Twins out of the 2003-2011 first round picks.
 


 
*****************
 
Now, for those so inclined, the approach.
 
Over the last decade, a number of extremely smart statistical researchers have explored the value of draft picks. I am not one of them. For simplicity, I decided to use the figures created by Andrew Ball (which are quite similar to others out there):
Tier 1 – Pick #1 Expected WAR = 11.83
Tier 2 – Pick #2 Expected WAR = 10.09
Tier 3 – Pick #3-7 Expected WAR = 5.37
Tier 4 – Pick #8-15 Expected WAR = 5.21
Tier 5 – Pick #16-30 Expected WAR = 2.65
Tier 6 – Pick #31-60 Expected WAR = 1.41
 
It is important to note that the expected WAR figures represent only the first 6 years of a player’s career. This is done with the expectation that teams are paying market rates for players that have reached free agency and their draft value has been expended. Data on first round draft picks and the WAR they have generated was collected from Baseball Reference.
 
I wanted the results here to reflect on the struggles from 2011-2014, so I intentionally didn’t go any further back than 2003 because those players had largely used up their first six years early in that period or before it. An argument could be made to include the 2002 class since most of the big names wouldn't have reached free agency until the 2013 season (Greinke, Hamels, Cain, BJ Upton), but I’ve excluded them. Note that this leaves out Denard Span from 2002 and Joe Mauer from 2001, both resounding successes of first-round picks.
 
With our time frame selected and the expected values defined, I tried to account for the fact that the more recent draft years are unlikely to have utilized all of their pre-free agency years by discounting the expected WAR for those more recent draft classes. The expected WAR in the first 6 years for the 2007-2011 draft classes were reduced by the following factors:
2011 = 1/6
2010 = 2/6
2009 = 3/6
2008 = 4/6
2007 = 5/6
This factoring isn’t perfect, as players come up at different rates, but the ratios of actual to expected WAR within the draft class stay reasonably steady at these rates. This discounting is actually a benefit for teams that have already gotten MLB production from these recent draft classes, which seems fine to me with our goal of assessing impact on the 2011-2014 seasons. We also might get some WAR from the older draft classes beyond their first 6 years. To adjust for this, I looked at the individual players in the 2003-2005 classes with more than 5 career WAR, looked up their stats on BRef and reduced their WAR by any amounts earned beyond 6 years (this sounds like a lot of work, but it was really only like 20 guys).
 
In looking through the data, I’m satisfied that we’re at least close enough to get a good gauge of team drafting performance. If you’ve made it this far, I’d be happy to share the Excel file with anyone interested (send me a PM with your email). I’ve also done some analysis specific to the Twins’ picks and whether or not they made it to MLB in relation to league averages, so I might follow up with that.
 
I hope the info here provides some help in assessing the Twins’ recent first round draft performance. Thanks in advance for your comments, insights and feedback.
 
Photo credit to Mizzou Media Relations

Forbes.com reported today that Major League baseball league-wide revenues jumped from $8 billion in 2013 to $9 billion in 2014, mostly due to the league's new national TV contracts and to revenue from MLB Advanced Media, the league's online streaming arm.
 
A look back: In 2001, revenue was $3.6 billion; adjusted for inflation, $4.66 billion in today's dollars, according to Forbes. That year, three MLB teams had payrolls over $100 million; the Yankees led the way with just over $112 million. 16 more had more than $50 million in payroll that season. Since then, revenue has doubled, more or less. The Dodgers had a $235 million payroll last year, and the Yankees nearly cleared the bar to $200 million as well. 14 other teams had payrolls of at least $100 million.
 
$200 million is the new $100 million, when it comes to payroll. $100 million is the new $50 million.
 
Since Target Field opened in 2010, the median MLB payroll has gone from $85 million to $107 million - right in line with revenue, which just like the median payroll, has jumped 25% in that five-year span. During that same period, the Twins' payroll has declined, from $98 million to $85million. Don't let the Twins fool you; they will try to tell you that they're spending plenty of money. They aren't.
 
Remember this the next time Terry Ryan or Dave St. Peter talks about being "fiscally responsible." Remember this the next time your neighbor complains about Joe Mauer's contract being the problem with the Twins. Remember that MLB's revenue explosion, and the great gobs of taxpayer money that funded Target Field, mean that the Twins are making more money now than they ever have before - indeed more money than they could ever have dreamed of.
 
They're just pocketing it, instead of spending it on improving the team.

In a wild MLB Trade Deadline Day that saw David Price to Detroit, Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes to Oakland for Yoenis Cespedes, John Lackey to St. Louis for Joe Kelly, and even Stephen Drew from Boston to the Yankees, Terry Ryan and the Minnesota Twins' front office can hold their heads relatively high. They locked up All-Star catcher Kurt Suzuki for two more years at $12 million with a slick vesting option for a third year based on plate appearances, as Mike Berardino tweets.
 
The Twins played it smart and basically have full control of that vesting year. However, with Kennys Vargas being called up to fill the designated hitter spot in light of Kendrys Morales being traded back to Seattle and the "triumphant" return of Joe Mauer to first base and not catcher, it doesn't look good for Josmil Pinto, who now has plenty of time to progress defensively in Rochester. It certainly wouldn't be a surprise if Suzuki gets 485 plate appearances in 2016, but it would mean Pinto still can't catch and Mauer still won't catch. With his improved approach at the plate that Parker Hageman recognized in video reconnaissance, maybe three years of Kurt Suzuki won't be so bad.
 
Let's just hope Pinto learns to frame pitches at least as well as Suzuki in a hurry so Ryan can move Suzuki sooner rather than later.
 
He did make another slick move in giving waiver claim Sam Fuld back to Oakland for starting pitcher Tommy Milone. I like Milone, whose given name is Tomaso Anthony Milone. Milone has put up impressive numbers in nearly 500 MLB innings pitched, but his strikeout numbers have steadily fallen. If he gives up even fewer homers and walks, which would be expected given Target Field and Rick Anderson, Milone will be an effective starter until 2018 when he becomes a free agent. And he will be better and cheaper in the role Kevin Correia has been failing to fill. Correia will be waived, and I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up the fifth starter or long reliever of a National League Wild Card contender...say, the Pirates. Any return on Correia is good return. Hell, maybe if we throw in a reliever they'll give Vance Worley back.
 
Of course, we must also consider Ryan's move to send Morales back to Seattle, which brought relief pitcher Stephen Pryor in what looks to me like a salary dump of sorts. Pryor's only 22, but I don't see Ryan's interest except that Pryor's biggest problem is walks, and if there's anything the Twins organization preaches it's, "Don't give free passes." I didn't understand the move with so many young pitchers to throw out there as relievers: Thielbar, Fien, Pressly, Tonkin, even AJ Achter; and I still don't understand it after none of our relievers were traded: Burton, Duensing, Deduno, or even Perkins (although that would have been heartbreaking).
 
So the Sam Fuld trade was outstanding, the Kenndrys Morales trade was pretty terrible, and perhaps the best move Terry Ryan made was to extend Kurt Suzuki at reasonable dollars and years. The Twins will most certainly be active at the waiver deadline, with Correia, Willingham, Burton, and maybe even Deduno to be considered. It's the most wonderful time of the year.
 
For original story visit http://gogonzojournal.com/sports