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Everything posted by Seth Stohs
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Article: The Hammer Pounds Again
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Correct. My point wasn't completely saying I'm against it. I wouldn't extend him because I don't think there is any reason to. However, if he was willing to add a year at $7 million, it'd be like the Twins signing him to a 3 year, $21M deal after a mammoth year. There's risk, but based on his history, even in some of his years where he missed a little time, he was worth well more than $7 million. So I guess I put it back out there to say that there are three options with Willingham, none of which is really terrible. -
Another, from Ben Revere: https://twitter.com/BenRevere9/status/248878096135102464/photo/1
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Thanks to a Twitter Picture from Glen Perkins, we get to see what the rookies get to wear on their flight today from Cleveland to Detroit! https://twitter.com/glen_perkins/status/248872758207975424/photo/1
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Article: The Hammer Pounds Again
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Twins Twerp, Did I write somewhere in the article that I thought they should extend Willingham this offseason? -
He's been OK in RF, especially since he hasn't played there since Beloit! Rather limited range, but probably just below average, but his arm plays alright out there. Oh, and congratulations to Chris and his wife. I talked to her for 5-10 minutes at Twins Fest and she's such a nice person.
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I think this is a market the Twins are best kind of sitting back and watching for a bit. Once Greinke signs, the next tier will go. Jackson and Sanchez should get decent deals, like over $20M. I'm not sure I see anyone else who would get more than $6M a year... I mean, i think if the Twins were aggressive, like they were with Carroll and Doumit last year, and offered Blanton 2 years and $12M, I think he'd probably sign. Guthrie was released 2 months ago.I'm intrigued by Ervin Santana, and I might go 3 years, $18M with him. There you go... there's my strategy... be aggressive and see if you an have Anibal Sanchez (4 years, $28M), Ervin Santana (3 years, $18M), and Joe Blanton at 1 year, $5M. There's $18M and three pitchers who are likely the top three in the Twins rotation, followed by Diamond and then Deduno for the short-term. If they're not willing to sign those deals quickly, stay in good standing with their agents and offer them the same deal, or 95% of the same deal, in early January.
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You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1050-The-Hammer-Pounds-Again
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Rightfully so, the big story from the Twins 6-4 win in Cleveland was Liam Hendriks. The right-hander won his first big league game in his 18th big league start. It was a tremendous moment for the Australian. However, it was also a huge night for another Twins player. He went 4-5 with a home run and four RBI. He had two RBI singles, and the home run came with a runner on. It’s been a huge season for the powerful outfielder. After last night, he now has career-highs with 35 home runs and 110 RBI.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] If he plays in just four of the final 14 Twins games, he will play in the most games he has played in. Being able to DH at times certainly helped keep his bat in the lineup. Manager Ron Gardenhire has done a terrific job of giving him occasional days off to help keep him healthy and strong. Here are the single-season home run leaders in the Twins 52-season history: [TABLE=align: center] Hitter Home Runs Year Harmon Killebrew 49 1964 Harmon Killebrew 49 1969 Harmon Killebrew 48 1962 Harmon Killebrew 46 1961 Harmon Killebrew 45 1963 Harmon Killebrew 44 1967 Harmon Killebrew 40 1970 Harmon Killebrew 39 1966 Josh Willingham 35 2012 Bob Allison 35 1963 Gary Gaetti 34 1086 Kent Hrbek 34 1987 Justin Morneau 34 2006 [/TABLE] The relationship between Willingham and the Twins seems to align perfectly. When Terry Ryan let Michael Cuddyer go to Colorado for 3 years and $31.5 million, some Twins fans were upset. When the Twins signed Willingham for 3 years and $21 million days later, Twins fans had mixed emotions. Cuddyer was the face that Twins fans saw most, and he was most often the voice of the Twins players, always willing to talk after games, good or bad. Stat-heads continued to write that the Twins got the better player for $10.5 million less. There is no question, not only was Willingham the Twins biggest free agent signing in their history, he clearly has been the Twins best free agent signing. Last month, Willingham let it be known that he would be open to talking to the Twins about signing an extension. He is owned $7 million in 2013 and $7 million in 2014. If Willingham were a free agent following the 2012 season, what would he get in the free agent market? Despite the fact the he will turn 34 years old about the time spring training starts next February, he would most likely get a deal in the three year, $30 million range. If he were willing to play the 2015 season at $7 million, it would be like signing him to a three year, $21 million contract again. The Twins have long had a need for right-handed power in the middle of their lineup. Can Trevor Plouffe take that next step in his career to provide consistent power? Willingham gives the Twins what they have needed for years. Also, unlike many Twins hitters in recent years, he is not intimidated by Target Field. Fangraphs is a tremendous site for baseball information and statistics. They have a stat called “Value” the takes a look at how players compare to a ‘replacement players’ and based on that, they place a “value” on his season. Right now, Willingham’s 2012 “Value” is placed at $17.5 million (and that factors in his negative defense). He has been consistently valuable since 2006, his first full season. [TABLE=align: center] Year “Value” 2006 $7.7 M 2007 $8.6 M 2008 $13.3 M 2009 $11.4 M 2010 $12.0 M 2011 $9.1 M 2012 $17.5 M [/TABLE] There are reasons that not adding a year to Willingham’s contract are probably the right thing to do. The Twins do have lots of outfield prospects. Denard Span’s name will likely be remain in trade rumors and Ben Revere has shown he can be a solid big leaguer. Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks and Joe Benson are all prospects that could be ready as early as sometime in 2013. Many believe that Miguel Sano will be ready by late 2014 or 2015 and could be in the outfield. The other side of that remains that you never know how good prospects will actually be no matter how elite their prospect status. Harmon Killebrew had all those 40 home runs seasons, but his last home run season was in his age-34 season in 1970. He then hit 28 homers in 1971 and 26 homers in 1972, still good power numbers. Over the final three seasons of his career, he combined to hit 32 more home runs. Of course, that isn’t to say that Willigham’s last great season would be in 2012, but that trajectory of declining numbers certainly is not unusual. The other angle for not extending Willingham beyond 2014 is that right now his value is likely the highest it would ever be. The Twins are likely a couple of years from competing for another division title, so as much as Willingham is great in the middle of the Twins lineup, he is someone that the Twins could get a very nice player/prospect return from in a trade. Willingham is right in making his request to add another year to stay with the Twins known. As a Twins fan, I want to hear that. It is wise for the Twins to let 2013 play out before considering extending Willingham. It will be another year to see how he performs as well as seeing how the prospects progress. Finally, as Twins fans, I think it’s wise just to sit back and marvel at what an incredible season 2012 has been for Josh Willingham, and leave it at that for now!
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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2372[/ATTACH] Rightfully so, the big story from the Twins 6-4 win in Cleveland was Liam Hendriks. The right-hander won his first big league game in his 18th big league start. It was a tremendous moment for the Australian. However, it was also a huge night for another Twins player. He went 4-5 with a home run and four RBI. He had two RBI singles, and the home run came with a runner on. It’s been a huge season for the powerful outfielder. After last night, he now has career-highs with 35 home runs and 110 RBI. If he plays in just four of the final 14 Twins games, he will play in the most games he has played in. Being able to DH at times certainly helped keep his bat in the lineup. Manager Ron Gardenhire has done a terrific job of giving him occasional days off to help keep him healthy and strong. Here are the single-season home run leaders in the Twins 52-season history: [TABLE=align: center] Hitter Home Runs Year Harmon Killebrew 49 1964 Harmon Killebrew 49 1969 Harmon Killebrew 48 1962 Harmon Killebrew 46 1961 Harmon Killebrew 45 1963 Harmon Killebrew 44 1967 Harmon Killebrew 40 1970 Harmon Killebrew 39 1966 Josh Willingham 35 2012 Bob Allison 35 1963 Gary Gaetti 34 1086 Kent Hrbek 34 1987 Justin Morneau 34 2006 [/TABLE] The relationship between Willingham and the Twins seems to align perfectly. When Terry Ryan let Michael Cuddyer go to Colorado for 3 years and $31.5 million, some Twins fans were upset. When the Twins signed Willingham for 3 years and $21 million days later, Twins fans had mixed emotions. Cuddyer was the face that Twins fans saw most, and he was most often the voice of the Twins players, always willing to talk after games, good or bad. Stat-heads continued to write that the Twins got the better player for $10.5 million less. There is no question, not only was Willingham the Twins biggest free agent signing in their history, he clearly has been the Twins best free agent signing. Last month, Willingham let it be known that he would be open to talking to the Twins about signing an extension. He is owned $7 million in 2013 and $7 million in 2014. If Willingham were a free agent following the 2012 season, what would he get in the free agent market? Despite the fact the he will turn 34 years old about the time spring training starts next February, he would most likely get a deal in the three year, $30 million range. If he were willing to play the 2015 season at $7 million, it would be like signing him to a three year, $21 million contract again. The Twins have long had a need for right-handed power in the middle of their lineup. Can Trevor Plouffe take that next step in his career to provide consistent power? Willingham gives the Twins what they have needed for years. Also, unlike many Twins hitters in recent years, he is not intimidated by Target Field. Fangraphs is a tremendous site for baseball information and statistics. They have a stat called “Value” the takes a look at how players compare to a ‘replacement players’ and based on that, they place a “value” on his season. Right now, Willingham’s 2012 “Value” is placed at $17.5 million (and that factors in his negative defense). He has been consistently valuable since 2006, his first full season. [TABLE=align: center] Year “Value” 2006 $7.7 M 2007 $8.6 M 2008 $13.3 M 2009 $11.4 M 2010 $12.0 M 2011 $9.1 M 2012 $17.5 M [/TABLE] There are reasons that not adding a year to Willingham’s contract are probably the right thing to do. The Twins do have lots of outfield prospects. Denard Span’s name will likely be remain in trade rumors and Ben Revere has shown he can be a solid big leaguer. Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks and Joe Benson are all prospects that could be ready as early as sometime in 2013. Many believe that Miguel Sano will be ready by late 2014 or 2015 and could be in the outfield. The other side of that remains that you never know how good prospects will actually be no matter how elite their prospect status. Harmon Killebrew had all those 40 home runs seasons, but his last home run season was in his age-34 season in 1970. He then hit 28 homers in 1971 and 26 homers in 1972, still good power numbers. Over the final three seasons of his career, he combined to hit 32 more home runs. Of course, that isn’t to say that Willigham’s last great season would be in 2012, but that trajectory of declining numbers certainly is not unusual. The other angle for not extending Willingham beyond 2014 is that right now his value is likely the highest it would ever be. The Twins are likely a couple of years from competing for another division title, so as much as Willingham is great in the middle of the Twins lineup, he is someone that the Twins could get a very nice player/prospect return from in a trade. Willingham is right in making his request to add another year to stay with the Twins known. As a Twins fan, I want to hear that. It is wise for the Twins to let 2013 play out before considering extending Willingham. It will be another year to see how he performs as well as seeing how the prospects progress. Finally, as Twins fans, I think it’s wise just to sit back and marvel at what an incredible season 2012 has been for Josh Willingham, and leave it at that for now!
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John, just to warn you... when we meet to discuss F/A salaries, I will probably disagree with you on like 95% of the starting pitchers. Greinke has Barry Zito contract written all over him. The starting pitcher mark is OK and there are some good arms. There isn't a single arm that doesn't come with a bunch of question marks. I'd be happy with the Twins going after Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez, but if it's actually going to take those $20M contracts, the Twins need to just say no.
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Article: Twins Florida Instructional League Roster
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
there is a schedule, but stats and box scores are not public information. -
He's only up because of the 18 inning game last night. They are hoping not to have to use him.
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Twins-Related Players on WBC Rosters
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Right now in Jupiter, FL, the WBC Qualifiers are starting. The teams there are Spain France, Israel and South Africa. Starting tomorrow in Regensburg, Germany, Canada, Czech Republic, Germany and Great Britain will start a WBC qualifier. Twins-related players (mostly former, but some current) TWins minor leaguers: Germany - Max Kepler, Markus Solbach, former minor leaguer Toby Gardenhire. France - former minor leaguers Rene Leveret and Fred Hanvi South Africa - Hein Robb Span - Eduardo Morlan Canada - Andrew Albers, Rene Tosoni Czech Republic - Jan Rehacek, Jakub Hatjmar, Matej Hejma For Israel, former big leaguer Shawn Green is playing. So is Adam Greenberg. The team is managed by Brad Ausmus and the hitting coach is Mark Loretta. In mid-November, there will be WBC Qualifiers played in Panama City (Brazil, Columbia, Nicaragua and Panama) and New Taipei City (Taiwan, New Zealand, Phillipines, Thailand). -
Article: Does A Deal With Scott Baker Make Sense?
Seth Stohs replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If Baker will sign that same deal, the Twins should do it in a second. -
It's been a long season for the Twins and their fans. Many years at this time, I would say, "Boy, April doesn't seem like that long ago!" This year, it has been a very, very long season and April does seem like forever ago. However, starting tonight, the Twins will have just 15 more games to play this season, and although it's been a frustrating season, again, there are still plenty of reasons for fans to "play out the string." The best reason is "Because it's Baseball." Here are some more: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Just Be Better Than Last Year The Twins enter this series with a record of 60-87. Maybe they can reel off a 15-game winning streak and end up 75-87. A nice goal might be to go 8-7 in the last 15 games and finish 68-94. To avoid losing 99 games again, the Twins need to win four more games. With the hitters healthy, that seems to be a fair goal. Milestone Chasing There may not be any huge milestone career numbers that Twins players are chasing, but the M&M Boys can continue their rise up the Twins leader boards. Joe Mauer needs 1 RBI to tie Michael Cuddyer for 10th on the Twins all-time list with 580. Justin Morneau needs 12 RBI to catch up to Bob Allison for 5th on the Twins RBI list with 796. Justin Morneau needs 2 doubles to tie Torii Hunter for 6th on the Twins career list with 259. If Joe Mauer can notch 6 more doubles, he would tie Gary Gaetti at 252 for 8th all-time. Six more walks and Joe Mauer would tie Roy Smalley with 549 walks. Smalley is currently sixth on the all-time Twins list. With one more sacrifice fly, Justin Morneau ties Kirby Puckett for 4th place with 58. If he hits two sacrifice flies, he ties Gary Gaetti for 3rd place with 59. Can Mauer Lead the League? Are we talking about Batting Average? If so, here are the current leaders: Miguel Cabrera .330 Mike Trout .329 Derek Jeter .323 Joe Mauer .321 Let's say that it will take a .330 batting average for Mauer to win the batting title. Let's also say that over the final 15 Twins games, Mauer will get 51 at bats to bring his season total to 540. He would need to go 21-51 (.412) to hit .330. Of course, any of those above him are capable of a similar run and are capable of hitting over .330. At any rate, Mauer still could win an unprecedented fourth batting title, but it will take some serious work! If we are talking about On-Base Percentage, which in most ways is more important than Batting Average, then Mauer is certainly the favorite. Here is how the OBP leader board looks heading into Tuesday: Joe Mauer .415 Prince Fielder .404 Mike Trout .396 Miguel Cabrera .395 David Murphy .391 No matter how you look at it, Joe Mauer returned to form in 2012. Three More Opportunities With fifteen games left, my Minnesota Math tells me that the current five in the Twins starting rotation will each get three more starts. That is, they will each get three more opportunities to show the Twins manager, pitching coach, GM, other teams, and fans what they are capable of. Scott Diamond seems all but guaranteed a rotation spot in 2013, but I'm sure he'd like to finish strong. He is currently sitting at 188.1 combined innings on the season (153.2 with the Twins, 34.2 with Rochester). Samuel Deduno seemed to have nearly locked in a 2013 starting gig with the Twins until he struggled with his control again in his most recent start. PJ Walters needs to try to show that his first three Twins starts were the real him and the terrible starting since then is the anomaly. Esmerling Vasquez needs to let the brass know if he can throw enough strikes to be a starter or a reliever. Liam Hendriks needs to relax and pitch like we all know that he can. Three starts is obviously a small sample size no matter how you look at it, but coupled with what they've done to this point, it's the beginning of their case. Firsts As you all know, I love seeing players come up through the minor league ranks and succeed. Chris Herrmann got a late call up here in September. He made his big league debut on Sunday when he grounded out to second base in a pinch hitting effort. I'm sure he'll make a couple of starts, and it will be great to see him get his first major league hit. However, if there is one thing that I want to see more than anything in these final 15 games, it is a Liam Hendriks win. It would be great for him to get Number One out of the way before the offseason so that he doesn't have to carry that with him. Yes, it has been a very long, very frustrating season in many ways, but hey, it's still baseball. It's still the best game that there is. Last night, the Twins didn't play. I decided to watch the first episode of NBC's Revolution. That's an hour of my life that I can't get back, and if that's what we have to look forward to watching on TV until the Twins come back next spring, it is going to be a very, very long winter!! So, enjoy the final couple of weeks for what they are.
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The Final Fifteen; What to Watch For
Seth Stohs commented on Seth Stohs's blog entry in SethSpeaks.net
[ATTACH=CONFIG]2360[/ATTACH] It's been a long season for the Twins and their fans. Many years at this time, I would say, "Boy, April doesn't seem like that long ago!" This year, it has been a very, very long season and April does seem like forever ago. However, starting tonight, the Twins will have just 15 more games to play this season, and although it's been a frustrating season, again, there are still plenty of reasons for fans to "play out the string." The best reason is "Because it's Baseball." Here are some more: Just Be Better Than Last Year The Twins enter this series with a record of 60-87. Maybe they can reel off a 15-game winning streak and end up 75-87. A nice goal might be to go 8-7 in the last 15 games and finish 68-94. To avoid losing 99 games again, the Twins need to win four more games. With the hitters healthy, that seems to be a fair goal. Milestone Chasing There may not be any huge milestone career numbers that Twins players are chasing, but the M&M Boys can continue their rise up the Twins leader boards. Joe Mauer needs 1 RBI to tie Michael Cuddyer for 10th on the Twins all-time list with 580. Justin Morneau needs 12 RBI to catch up to Bob Allison for 5th on the Twins RBI list with 796. Justin Morneau needs 2 doubles to tie Torii Hunter for 6th on the Twins career list with 259. If Joe Mauer can notch 6 more doubles, he would tie Gary Gaetti at 252 for 8th all-time. Six more walks and Joe Mauer would tie Roy Smalley with 549 walks. Smalley is currently sixth on the all-time Twins list. With one more sacrifice fly, Justin Morneau ties Kirby Puckett for 4th place with 58. If he hits two sacrifice flies, he ties Gary Gaetti for 3rd place with 59. Can Mauer Lead the League? Are we talking about Batting Average? If so, here are the current leaders: Miguel Cabrera .330 Mike Trout .329 Derek Jeter .323 Joe Mauer .321 Let's say that it will take a .330 batting average for Mauer to win the batting title. Let's also say that over the final 15 Twins games, Mauer will get 51 at bats to bring his season total to 540. He would need to go 21-51 (.412) to hit .330. Of course, any of those above him are capable of a similar run and are capable of hitting over .330. At any rate, Mauer still could win an unprecedented fourth batting title, but it will take some serious work! If we are talking about On-Base Percentage, which in most ways is more important than Batting Average, then Mauer is certainly the favorite. Here is how the OBP leader board looks heading into Tuesday: Joe Mauer .415 Prince Fielder .404 Mike Trout .396 Miguel Cabrera .395 David Murphy .391 No matter how you look at it, Joe Mauer returned to form in 2012. Three More Opportunities With fifteen games left, my Minnesota Math tells me that the current five in the Twins starting rotation will each get three more starts. That is, they will each get three more opportunities to show the Twins manager, pitching coach, GM, other teams, and fans what they are capable of. Scott Diamond seems all but guaranteed a rotation spot in 2013, but I'm sure he'd like to finish strong. He is currently sitting at 188.1 combined innings on the season (153.2 with the Twins, 34.2 with Rochester). Samuel Deduno seemed to have nearly locked in a 2013 starting gig with the Twins until he struggled with his control again in his most recent start. PJ Walters needs to try to show that his first three Twins starts were the real him and the terrible starting since then is the anomaly. Esmerling Vasquez needs to let the brass know if he can throw enough strikes to be a starter or a reliever. Liam Hendriks needs to relax and pitch like we all know that he can. Three starts is obviously a small sample size no matter how you look at it, but coupled with what they've done to this point, it's the beginning of their case. Firsts As you all know, I love seeing players come up through the minor league ranks and succeed. Chris Herrmann got a late call up here in September. He made his big league debut on Sunday when he grounded out to second base in a pinch hitting effort. I'm sure he'll make a couple of starts, and it will be great to see him get his first major league hit. However, if there is one thing that I want to see more than anything in these final 15 games, it is a Liam Hendriks win. It would be great for him to get Number One out of the way before the offseason so that he doesn't have to carry that with him. Yes, it has been a very long, very frustrating season in many ways, but hey, it's still baseball. It's still the best game that there is. Last night, the Twins didn't play. I decided to watch the first episode of NBC's Revolution. That's an hour of my life that I can't get back, and if that's what we have to look forward to watching on TV until the Twins come back next spring, it is going to be a very, very long winter!! So, enjoy the final couple of weeks for what they are. -
I just posted on Facebook that this news is hitting me with some seriously mixed emotions. I fully understand the decision to leave and to go to Cedar Rapids. Personally, I LOVE going to Beloit. The people. The Front Office. They may not get a ton of fans in attendance, but I've been able to meet a bunch of them, and they were die hard Twins fans in the heart of Brewers country. I'll have to go to Cedar Rapids, if only to hang out with JC... but I'll have to keep my annual Beloit trip plans too!!
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Is the Affiliation Dance about to begin?
Seth Stohs replied to Jim Crikket's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Broken by the great Jim Crikket!!! Nice work!! -
Last week, I posted my thoughts on the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year. You can look here to get the stats, but today, be sure to make your choice. Vote below!
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Article: Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Thrylos - If Pinto is not put on the 40 man roster and signs with the Twins as a min. lg. free agent, he's eligible for the major league Rule 5 draft as well. He did end the year in New Britain, so he has played above A ball. lightfoot - Adam Walker has a chance to be very good. I didn't include playoff numbers, as not everyone plays in them and it's a small sample. I agree with him doing well. I don't know what the Friday night stat means. He certainly hit a big HR for the E-Twins in that championship-deciding game. He'll certainly be a candidate for this category in the future... the key will be putting the ball in play. When he makes contact, good things happen.

