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Seth Stohs

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Blog Entries posted by Seth Stohs

  1. Seth Stohs
    On Tuesday, Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers had to report to Ft. Myers for spring training. Although many infielders and outfielders have already been working out at the Lee County Complex, they officially have to report on Friday and the team will have the first official full squad workout on Saturday. On Tuesday, I posted my first roster projections for the pitchers and catchers, and today, I’ll post my roster projections for the infielders and outfielders
     
    Each Friday through spring training, I’ll be taking a weekly look at the Twins roster and project who will make the Opening Day roster. After looking at 43 pitchers and catchers who reported Tuesday, today I’ll post a percent likelihood that each infielder and outfielder will be on the Twins Opening Day roster. As we learned on Thursday when the Twins signed Rafael Perez to a minor league contract with a spring training invite, the roster is still subject to change, and I will account for those each week.
     
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]3263[/ATTACH]
    INFIELDERS
    40 MAN ROSTER
    Jamey Carroll (100%), Justin Morneau (100%), Trevor Plouffe (100%), Pedro Florimon (66%), Brian Dozier (62%), Eduardo Escobar (51%), Danny Santana (0.6%)
     
    Justin Morneau will be at first base, and Trevor Plouffe will be at third base. After that, there are still plenty of question marks remaining. Question marks that may not be answered until the final week of the spring. Jamey Carroll will be on the roster. He could start at shortstop or second base, and he could be a three-position utility player. Pedro Florimon appears to be the favorite to start the season at shortstop. Brian Dozier could be given a very good opportunity to start at second base and told us not to give up on him as a shortstop. Remember that the Twins traditionally have two utility infielders on the roster. Eduardo Escobar can play all three positions very well, and was a utility infielder for the Chicago White Sox in 2012 until he was traded to the Twins for Francisco Liriano. Danny Santana will likely head to New Britain to start the season.
    NON-ROSTER INVITES
    Ray Olmedo (8.0%), Chris Colabello (1.0%), Jeff Clement (0.9%), Deibinson Romero (0.8%), Mark Sobolewski (0.7%), James Beresford (0.4%)
     
    In 2003, Ray Olmedo got 250 plate appearances as a 22-year-old for the Cincinnati Reds. Over the next three seasons, he had another 138 total plate appearances. He played in 27 games for the 2007 Toronto Blue Jays. He then was in the minor leagues until the White Sox called him up as a 31-year-old for 20 games in August and September (after Escobar was traded). Colabello was one of the best stories in the Twins farm system in 2012, his first year in affiliated ball. He also crushed the ball in Mexico this winter. He likely will go to Rochester, but with left-handed hitting 1B options (Morneau, Parmelee, Mauer), he could find a role as a right-handed part-time player for the Twins. The Twins drafted Clement out of high school, but he went to college and was the #3 overall pick of the Mariners in 2005. He has played in 152 games in the big leagues, for the Mariners and Pirates), including going 3-22 for the Pirates in 2012. Romero returns to Twins big league camp for the first time since he was a 40-man-roster member in 2009 spring training. A year later, he was off the 40 man roster, but he has remained with the only organization he has played for since signing with the team in 2006. Last year in New Britain, he hit .267/.356/.441 with 23 doubles and 19 home runs. Sobolewski was a minor league Rule 5 selection of the Twins in December. The third baseman was a 4th round pick of the Blue Jays in 2008. He hit 20 home runs in 2012 (18 in AA, 2 in AAA) and is known to be very good defensively at the hot corner. James Beresford became a free agent following the 2012 season, but he decided to remain with the only organization he’s known since signing with the Twins from Australia. He will again be on the Australian team in the WBC this spring. The middle infielder is a terrific leader and has a great glove.
    THE OUTFIELDERS
    40 Man Roster
    Josh Willingham (100%), Darin Mastroianni (100%), Chris Parmelee (99%) Aaron Hicks (48%), Joe Benson (42%), Oswaldo Arcia (1.2%)
     
    Josh Willingham had the best season of his career and earned his Silver Slugger Award with career-high 35 home runs and 110 RBI. Right Field has been opened up for Chris Parmelee to take after he dominated AAA and has earned the opportunity. He will have to take the job and make it his as Twins minor league hitter of the year, Oswaldo Arcia, is quickly moving up the system behind him and should make his major league debut sometime in 2013. The biggest question mark of spring training is who will take the centerfield position. Darin Mastroianni will make the team. He will be given a shot to win the starting job after doing a nice job in the 4th outfielder role. Aaron Hicks is the name that most people are talking about. The 23-year-old had a breakout season in 2012 in AA New Britain, showing the immense talent that made him the 14th overall pick in 2008. He will have to take the job in spring, but there is little doubt that he will debut in 2013 with the Twins. The name that is too often forgotten is Joe Benson. One year ago at this time, he came to spring training after making his major league debut the September before. He was as highly-regarded last year as Hicks is this year. He was hurt the entire 2012 season and tried to play through the pain as long as he could. He is blessed with amazing athleticism and talent, and if healthy, he can still be an impact player. One important question is whether Benson would be considered an option as the 4th outfielder, or would they still want the ultra-competitive 25-year-old to continue to play every day.
    Non-Roster Invites
    Brandon Boggs (17%), Clete Thomas (14%), Wilkin Ramirez (7.0%), Brian Dinkelman (1.9%)
     
    If Mastroianni starts the season as a starter, and the Twins decide that they want Hicks and Benson to play every day in Rochester, Brandon Boggs and Clete Thomas will compete for the 4th outfield spot on the roster. We saw Thomas last year when he had one impressive game before becoming unable to make contact. Once he went down to Rochester, he was OK, and he certainly could be a 4th outfielder because he’s good defensively and we know he’s better than he showed with the Twins in 2012. Boggs was the 4th round pick of the Rangers in 2004 out of Georgia Tech. As a 25-year-old in 2008, he played in 101 games for the Rangers. He played in just 13 games for the Rangers over the next two seasons and 16 games for the Brewers in 2011. Last year in AAA Indianapolis, he hit .259/.359/.408 with 24 doubles, five triples and nine home runs. In 481 plate appearances, he walked 62 times, but he also struckout 120 times. But again, we’re just talking about a 4th outfield spot for a month or two. Ramirez came to Twins camp a year ago, but unfortunately, he was hurt in camp. After rehabbing, he hit .276/.316/.451 with 18 doubles and 15 home runs in 98 games in Rochester. He played 15 games (13 PAs) for Detroit as a 23-year-old in 2009 and 20 games (30 PAs) for the Atlanta Braves in 2011. What hurts his chances of making the Twins roster as a fourth outfielder is that he is really a corner outfielder with limited centerfield time in his career. Brian Dinkelman was the Twins 8th round pick in 2006 out of NAIA McKendree University. He debuted and played in 23 games as a 27-year-old in 2011. He hit .301 in his 73 big league at bats. In 2012, he missed a lot of time with injury.
    ROSTER PROJECTION #1 (2/15/13):
    Infielders (6): Justin Morneau, Trevor Plouffe, Jamey Carroll, Pedro Florimon, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar
    Outfielders (4): Josh Willingham, Chris Parmelee, Darin Mastroianni, Joe Benson
    Catchers (3): Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Drew Butera
    Starting Pitchers (5): Scott Diamond, Kevin Correia, Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, Liam Hendriks, Kyle Gibson (Diamond and/or Pelfrey likely starting season on DL)
    Relief Pitchers (7): Glen Perkins, Jared Burton, Brian Duensing, Alex Burnett, Casey Fien, Josh Roenicke, Tim Wood (Anthony Swarzak possibly on the DL?)
     
    What are your thoughts or projections on the Twins Opening Day roster as Pitchers and Catchers report? Make your 25-man-roster projections and we'll check back on Opening Day to see who got the most right.
  3. Seth Stohs
    Via Twitter, the Star-Tribune's LaVelle Neal announced the signing of left-handed reliever Rafael Perez to a minor league contract today. He had been non-tendered by the Cleveland Indians in November after pitching in just eight games for the team in 2012. He fought a side injury early in the season and later was out for the season due to a shoulder injury.
     
    However, in his seven seasons (all in Cleveland), he was a very good reliever, most of the time. In all, he worked 329 innings in 338 games. He posted an ERA of 3.64 with a WHIP of 1.33.
     
    In 2009, he posted a 7.31 ERA in 54 games. However, in his five other big league seasons, he never posted an ERA over 3.54.
     
    The left-hander's platoon splits are actually quite similar. In his career, lefties have posted a .678 OPS while right-handed batters posted a .694 OPS. He has struckout 21% of right-handed batters faced and about 17% of left-handers.
     
    Although he is just 30-years-old, his best years were 2006 through 2008 when he averaged more than a strikeout per inning. His K-Rates the past four seasons have been 6.0, 5.3, 4.7 and 4.7, so expectations should be kept minimized.
     
    What does it mean for the Twins? Glen Perkins and Brian Duensing will be in the Twins bullpen. If the Twins choose to have a third lefty in the bullpen, Perez will compete with Tyler Robertson, who spent the second half of the 2012 season with the Twins, and Minnesotan Caleb Thielbar, who was added to the Twins 40 man roster in November after pitching well at three levels a year ago.
     
    Specifics of the minor league deal are not yet public.
  14. Seth Stohs
    Tonight, Oswaldo Arcia will be presented with a Diamond Award tonight as the Sherry Robertson Award winner as the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year. The talented outfielder had a tremendous 2012 season and is moving up prospect rankings. More important, he is putting himself in position to be part of the Minnesota Twins big league roster sometime in 2014.
     
    Arcia is prominently featured in the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook (paperback or e-book). Like 150 other Twins prospects, he is profiled, but because he was also our choice for minor league hitter of the year, there is a feature story on him with quotes from teammates. Quotes like, “He was the guy we wanted up when we needed a big hit.” Or, “He just always finds a way to get the good part of the bat on the ball.”
     
    But the question for today is: Following a tremendous 2012, will Oswaldo Arcia be Better or Worse in 2013? He will head to his second big league spring training in mid-February and that is when we will start to find out.
     
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]3119[/ATTACH]
     
    2012 Recap
     
    I guess when you are named the Twins minor league hitter of the year (in a year with several very strong candidates!), the assumption can be that the season was quite good. For Arcia, it certainly was. He had moved up to Ft. Myers for the second half of the 2011 season following elbow surgery, and he struggled a little bit. He hit .263/.300/.460 (.760) with 24 extra base hits, including a team-leading eight home runs.
     
    So, he returned to Ft. Myers to start 2012 where, as a 20 year old, he hit .309/.376/.517 with 16 doubles, three triples and seven home runs. He did cut out his strikeout rate (23% to 19%), while significantly increasing his walk rate (4% to 10%). After 55 games, he was promoted to AA New Britain, which is supposed to be more difficult. However, Arcia made a mockery of the Eastern League, fully solidifying himself as a top prospect in more than just the Twins system. In 69 games, he hit .328/.398/.557 (.955) and hit 20 doubles, five triples and ten home runs. His strikeout rate increased by about 1.6% from where it was in Ft. Myers, but his walk rate dropped less than half of a percent.
     
    Overall, he hit .320/.388/.539 (.928) with 36 doubles, eight triples, 17 home runs and 98 RBI. He played in the Futures Game where he was 1-2 with a double off of Pirates pitching prospect Jameson Taillon. Baseball America ranked him as the Twins #3 prospect (as did I) and John Manuel commented that there are several teams where he would be the easy choice as #1 prospect.
     
    Arcia has been hitting since probably long before the Twins signed him out of Venezuela in 2007. He posted a .775 OPS in 2008 in the Dominican Summer League. His OPS was .792 in 2008 with the GCL Twins. His status was certainly heightened in 2010 when he was the Appy League player of the year. He hit .375/.424/.672 (1.096 OPS) with 21 doubles, seven triples and 14 home runs. He moved up to Beloit in 2011 where, in a month, he hit .352/.420/.704 (1.124 OPS) with eight doubles, a triple and five home runs. In a month. He ended that 2011 in Ft. Myers, where I said he struggled, but ‘struggled’ was still posting a .760 OPS.
     
    Why He’ll Be Worse
     
    It will be a very important spring training for Arcia. Where he breaks camp will be quite interesting, and frankly, could send him any of three directions. Due to numbers and the fact that he can be called up from AA as well as AAA, he could return to New Britain for a couple of months. Most would say that he should just start the season at Rochester. There is also an outside chance that he could start the season with the Twins, however, that is quite unlikely. The Twins have Josh Willingham and Chris Parmelee that should start the season in the corners, and Ryan Doumit can (kind of) play those positions as well. Arcia is just 21 years old, so he needs to play and there is no reason to rush him.
     
    There are still things that are, at least to some level, that he has to work on. We have already talked about his strikeout rate which has been pretty consistently between 19% and 23% throughout his young career. For the type of production he has put up, those numbers are far from alarming, but could it become an issue as he moves up? Potentially. Although his overall numbers hardly indicate it, Arcia has struggled at times against left-handed pitchers. In fact, in the season’s first month, his lefty-righty splits were quite different, as was the case in 2011 at Ft. Myers. He made some adjustments during the 2012 season to greatly improve his performance against southpaws. He’s a very smart baseball player already considering his youth, but he can certainly improve his base running as well.
     
    Why He’ll Be Better
     
    Frankly, it is going to be hard for Arcia to move up a level and put up the kinds of video game numbers he put up in 2012 again, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t continue to keep his prospect status just as high or higher.
     
    However, Arcia is a natural hitter. He has tremendous power to all fields, and those things you hear from his teammates about always being able to get the good part on the bat really matter. It speaks to his ability to make adjustments, not only over the course of a season but even on the level of a single at bat. He can turn on a fastball inside, but he knows best to take those pitches on the outside corner to the opposite field.
     
    He will not turn 22 years old until May. The sky is the limit for him. The experience he has had this offseason in the Venezuelan Winter League, particularly in the playoffs where he more consistently is playing against top talent, has been very encouraging. He has displayed his power potential. Can he put the ball in play a little more often? If so, that would help some.
     
    2013 should be a fun season to follow Oswaldo Arcia. If he goes back to New Britain, the hope would be that he would rake for a month and prove that his 2012 was not just a fluke. Against the much-older pitchers in AAA, he will have to show patience and that he can make adjustments.
     
    Arcia is a good defensive outfielder. He is a right-fielder primarily because he has a very strong arm. He has about average speed, so he is a better fit in the corners, especially when you have speed guys like Aaron Hicks and Joe Benson for centerfield. He did play a handful of games in center in 2012, and played there primarily in Elizabethton. He has not played left field since his GCL days.
     
    Seth Projected ETA for Arcia – I think that the Twins will trade Justin Morneau in July. At that time, Chris Parmelee will move back in to first base, and Arcia will take over in right field.
     
    So, which will it be? Will (or can) Oswaldo Arcia get (any) better or worse in 2013? Let us know what you think.
     
     
     
     

    Meet Twins Daily! If you are interested, come to Huberts (by the Metrodome) on Saturday night from 6-9 p.m., following Twins Fest. The Twins Daily guys will be there, as will Aaron Gleeman and many of your favorite writers. It should be a lot of fun!

  17. Seth Stohs
    On Thursday, the 2013 World Baseball Classic rosters were announced. The day began with MLB Network unveiling Team USA. In the afternoon, the rosters of the other participating countries were announced. Three years ago, Tom Stuifbergen became a household name for the team from The Netherlands when he, under the tutelage of Bert Blyleven, threw five shutout innings against the vaunted lineup of the Dominican Republic. He and several other Twins players (past, present and future) will be participating in this year’s tournament/exhibition. Before getting to those Twins related players, here is a rundown of where the games are taking place and which teams are involved.
     
    Pool A will take place in Fukuoka, Japan. It will include teams from Japan, Brazil, Cuba and China.
     
    Pool B will be March 2-5 in Taichung, Taiwan. The teams participating there will be Chinese Taipei, The Netherlands, Korea, and Australia.
     
    Pool C will be played March 7-10 in San Juan Puerto Rico. Teams there will be Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and Spain.
     
    Finally, Pool D will be held in Phoenix on March 7-10. Along with Team USA will be Canada, Mexico and Italy.
     
    As we knew previous, Minnesotans and Minnesota Twins, Joe Mauer and Glen Perkins will be on Team USA.
     
    As was reported here yesterday, Eddie Rosario will be part of a pretty impressive Puerto Rican outfield (Beltran, Rios, Pagan, Torres). As you read here earlier today, JO Berrios is also on the roster. So is former Twins LHP JC Romero.
     
    Team Australia is, as you would expect, full of players formerly in the Twins organization. The one current Twins player is infielder James Beresford. He is joined by former Twins Luke Hughes, Justin Huber and Brad Thomas. He’s also joined by former Twins farmhands Matt Williams, Brendan Wise, and Peter Moylan. Also, Ryan-Rowland Smith is on the roster. He was a Rule 5 pick of the Twins who was sent back to the Mariners. Liam Hendriks’ is not playing due to his elbow surgery in September.
     
    Jose Mijares will be playing for the team from Venezuela.
     
    Drew Butera will be on Team Italy. Former Twin infielder Nick Punto is also on the Italy roster, as is Twins minor leaguer Chris Colabello. What a 12-month period it has been for him! Former Twins first-round pick, Dan Serafini, is also on their roster.
     
    Team Canada will include 1B Justin Morneau. As we heard awhile ago, Scott Diamond is not playing due to his elbow surgery in December. However, minor league lefty Andrew Albers is on the roster. Former Twin Rene Tosoni will also be on the team. So will former RHP Jesse Crain.
     
    Ray Chang, from Kansas City and who has played in the Twins org the last two seasons, is again on Team China in the #WBC.
     
    Carlos Gomez will be on the Dominican Republic roster.
     
    Luis Ayala’s time with the Twins was short, and oh-so memorable. He’ll be on the team from Mexico.
     
    Finally, Tom Stuifbergen and Bert Blyleven will be reunited on the team from the Netherlands. Joining them will be tall, Also, Twins minor leaguer Shairon Martis will be on the roster. RHP Loek Van Mil, a long-time Twins farmhand.
    Who knows who will win the baseball exhibition? The primary thing for me is that all of the Twins players come back healthy!
     
    Feel free to discuss.
  18. Seth Stohs
    The Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2013 is now available, and I’m happy to have it out there for people to order. It’s a great tool for learning more about over 150 players in the Twins farm system. One of the players who received an extra-long profile was Eddie Rosario. This morning, you will find out why the timing of today’s Eddie Rosario, For Better or Worse article is appropriate. Read the following and decide for yourself: Will Eddie Rosario be better or worse in 2013?
     
    2012 Recap
     
    When the Twins drafted Rosario in the third round of the 2010 draft, he was said to be the best bat from Puerto Rico that year. Since signing with the Twins, he has proven those people to be right.
     
    In 2011, he was the MVP of the Appalachian League. In 67 games, he hit .337/.397/.670 (1.068 OPS) with nine doubles, nine triples, 21 homers, 60 RBI and 17 stolen bases. Throughout the summer, it was a back-and-forth battle between Rosario and teammate Miguel Sano for the league leadership in home runs. Rosario won by just one homer.
     
    The ballparks are smaller in the Appy League than they are in the Midwest League. Some wondered if Rosario would be able to continue putting up those kind of power numbers in Beloit. Simply put, he is not the same type of power hitter as Miguel Sano. However, he is a much more well-rounded hitter than Sano. In 95 games with the Snappers, he hit .296/.345/.490 (.835 OPS) with a team-leading 32 doubles, four triples, 12 home runs and 780 RBI. Impressive extra base hit totals considering he missed just over a month after being hit by a line drive in the mouth during batting practice in early June. He stole 11 bases, but he was also caught 11 times. Something happened after his injury because he could not read pitchers and was thrown out a lot.
     
    Rosario made the transition from centerfield to second base. He is a terrific defensive centerfielder with good range and a very strong arm. The move to second base was not simple. When I saw him play in early June, he showed very little range and looked uncomfortable. When I saw him play in early August, he looked much more comfortable, turned a couple of double plays and did have some improved range.
     
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]3067[/ATTACH]
    Photo by Jim Crikket 
    This offseason, he has been very impressive in the Puerto Rican Winter League. In the regular season, he hit .338/.386/.496 (.882) with nine doubles and four home runs. In 31 playoff at bats, he has hit .290/.378/.581 (.0959) with a homer and nine RBI. He has primarily been playing in right field, although he has occasionally played more at second base. When he reports to spring training, he will be playing second base.
     
    However, his spring training plans will be somewhat altered as he will be named to the Puerto Rican team in the WBC today when the rosters are announced.
     
     
    Why He’ll Be Worse
     
    As was mentioned last week when we discussed Miguel Sano, Rosario will also be moving up a level to play in Ft. Myers. The Florida State League is more advanced than the Midwest League. The dimensions of the ballpark are even larger, matching big league ballparks since they are used for major league spring training. One thing to watch will be his walk rate. After walking 9.1% of his plate appearances in 2011, he walked just 7.2% of the time in 2012. He will also need to show that his second half base stealer drought was just a slump.
     
    Why He’ll Be Better
     
    First and foremost, he hopefully won’t miss a month in the middle of the season due to a fluke injury. His numbers were very strong, and he was fairly consistent, at Beloit. His strikeout rate actually dropped from 20% to 16%
    When watching him, I found myself comparing his stance and swing are very similar to that of Denard Span. He has very quick hands so he is able to watch the ball a little bit longer. He also does a great job of using the entire field. He was also able to avoid long slumps.
     
    So, which will it be? Will Eddie Rosario get better or worse in 2013? Let us know what you think.
     
     

    If you missed my Live Chat last night, where many minor league topics were discussed, you can read the transcript here.
    Also, be sure to join us at Huberts (by the Metrodome) on Saturday night from 6-9 p.m., following Twins Fest. The Twins Daily guys will be there, as will Aaron Gleeman and many of your favorite writers.

  20. Seth Stohs
    Tonight at 7, Seth Stohs will be answering your Twins-related questions here at Twins Daily. The chat room will be opened 15 minutes before then, and you can get your questions in right away.
     
    It'll be a good opportunity to discuss Twins topics, and particularly Twins minor league topics since the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2013 just became available this week. We can talk about Twins Fest, spring training, Twins in the WBC, Hall of Fame, whatever you like.
     
    So, stop by the site tonight and ask anything you'd like!
     
    Live Twins Chat with Seth Stohs
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