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Seth Stohs

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Blog Entries posted by Seth Stohs

  5. Seth Stohs
    This afternoon, the Twins made their official spring training debut and they came away with a 7-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays.
     
    This got off to an ominous start for the Twins. Starter Carl Pavano gave up a two-run, first inning home run to Matt Joyce. In the bottom of the first, David Price hit Jamey Carroll in the helmet with a fastball. Carroll quickly got to his feet and went to first base. (He said later he was fine. It was a glancing blow.) Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau each struck out looking to end that inning.
     
    Pavano pitched a scoreless second inning and then the Twins bullpen gave up just one more run the rest of the way.
     
    Here are some of the highlights from the Twins Spring Opener (Feel free to add to the list):

    Denard Span went 2-3, and the time he got out, he stayed down on a tough Price pitch and grounded out.
    Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau left the game healthy. Mauer drove in a run with a 3rd inning single. Morneau drove in a run with a 5th inning.
    Ryan Doumit was 1-2 with a walk and a double. Danny Valencia drilled a double to the right centerfield gap.
    Tsuyoshi Nishioka went 2-3 with a long triple over the right fielder's head.
    Chris Parmelee went 2-2, although he did have a base running gaffe late in the game.
    Chris Herrmann came in late and drilled an RBI single.
    Matt Maloney pitched the 8th inning and struck out the side. My assumption is that Wayne Krivsky was smiling while watching that!
    Brian Duensing threw two scoreless innings. He was followed by one scoreless inning each from Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett and Maloney. Anthony Swarzak gave up one run in the 9th inning.
    Cory Provus made his debut as the Twins play-by-play voice and it's clear he will do a good job.
    What other observations did you take from the Twins first spring training game?
  8. Seth Stohs
    Here we are, less than a week into full Twins spring training workouts. Games don’t even start for a couple of days. It’s time to start talking position battles, right? It appears to me that there are actually very few positions that are up for grabs at this stage of camp. Of course, as injuries mount through spring training, more position battles can spring up, but for now, there are a lot of givens on the roster.
     
    Hitters: Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau, Alexi Casilla, Danny Valencia, Jamey Carroll, Ben Revere, Denard Span, Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe (10 out of 13 positions are accounted for).
     
    Pitchers: Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Jason Marquis, Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Brian Duensing (9 out of 12 positions accounted for).
     
    The biggest debate the last couple of days has been about the bullpen where one more job opened up with the loss of Joel Zumaya for the season. Let’s discuss that tomorrow. Let’s start today with the offensive (as in hitting!) side of the ball.
    3rd Catcher
    The favorite at this point for the third catcher spot has to be Drew Butera. What does he have going for him? Two years of experience catching Twins pitchers in front of the Twins coaching staff, good catch and throw guy and he’s still a pre-arbitration eligible guy meaning he will basically make league minimum.
     
    The competition for the role comes from a couple of places, 28 year olds JR Towles and Rene Rivera. Towles was a big prospect in baseball and then hit .375 in 44 plate appearances in 2007. In 141 games spread over the past four years in Houston, he has hit .168/.251/.289. Of course, those numbers are better than Butera’s the last two years, but still not confidence-inducing. We got to see some of Rivera last year and realized that he is in the same category. No offense, solid defense guy.
     
    Prediction: I think that Butera ‘wins’ that third catcher job because, frankly, there isn’t an option that is much better, if at all better. Also, he’s on the 40 man roster and the other two are not. Frankly, Danny Lehmann’s name should be in this mix because he is just as good as any of these guys, knows the Twins pitchers, and has the respect of all pitchers in the organization. Chris Herrmann is certainly the top prospect in the group, and he should begin the year in AA New Britain.
    The Final TWO bench spots
    The starting lineup for the Twins is pretty much set. There will be a third catcher, and Trevor Plouffe will be the fourth outfielder. That leaves two spots.
     
    The favorites at this point are guys we saw in 2011. Tsuyoshi Nishioka’s debut season in the big leagues was pretty much a complete disaster. However, looking at the options for who could fill a utility role, he is the one that can play shortstop. He will have to play it (and 2B) better and also learn some 3B. He’ll also have to show an ability to hit. Although he’s a favorite, I don’t get the sense that he’s guaranteed a roster spot. If not for his shoulder injury, suffered while playing in the Australia Winter League, Luke Hughes would likely fit into the ‘given’ category. If he is healthy, I think he is a given. If he is not healthy, I think he goes on the Disabled List. I don’t think that the Twins should try to get Hughes through waivers because I think that he would be claimed and lost.
     
    The Competition for those two roster spots come from a couple of different angles. Sean Burroughs is the guy most are talking about now. His story is quite well known. He spent most of the 2011 season pinch-hitting with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He can play the corner spots solidly but would likely not have the range to play up the middle. His left-handed bat also matters as other bench options in the infield bat right handed. Steve Pearce can also play both corner infield spots and maybe be serviceable in the corner outfield. With Trevor Plouffe being the fourth outfielder, it may not be a horrible idea for the Twins to have a more proven defensive outfielder as a late-inning option. The Twins would likely prefer to have Rene Tosoni get every day playing time in Rochester, but he is an option. Recently acquired Darin Mastroianni is also a possibility as a true backup outfielder.
     
    Prediction: I believe that the Twins are likely to go with Nishioka and Hughes as the backups. Brian Dozier is probably the best infielder vying for a spot, but he hasn’t played above a half-season in AA and he’s got too much potential to waste on the bench. (That said, if he wins a starting spot, Jamey Carroll or Alexi Casilla could certainly move to the bench.) The same is true with Joe Benson in the outfield. He needs every day at bats. Chris Parmelee certainly enters the equation for a roster spot if Justin Morneau suffers any setbacks. I also believe that we will see plenty of Sean Burroughs on the Twins roster throughout the 2012 season.
     
    We’ll be back tomorrow with much more on the bullpen options, of which there are plenty.
  9. Seth Stohs
    One of my fantasy leagues started its draft this past week, so I thought it might be a good time to start writing a little about fantasy baseball. I will likely participate in three or four leagues this year, and each is a little bit different. One of my leagues is a keeper league with major and minor league rosters. It is a 5x5 roto league. Another league is a weekly head-to-head, points league. Another league is only on the weekend. I’m in one ten team league and two 14-team leagues. There are American or National League only leagues. Fantasy baseball is so much fun, but there are so many formats, so be sure to understand the system before your draft.
     
    One thing that is always interesting to me is to see where Twins players will be drafted in fantasy leagues. In recent years, there have been quite a few Twins players who went high in drafts. This season, there are several Twins players who will be drafted, but fantasy owners will have to consider risk-reward when selecting many of them.
    Catchers
     
    Two years ago, Joe Mauer was a Top 5 pick in most fantasy league formats. Even last year, he was taken in the first two rounds in most drafts. In 2012, he will likely be the third catcher from the AL Central to be drafted, behind Cleveland’s Carlos Santana and Detroit’s Alex Avila. He should also be drafted behind Brian McCann. At that point, however, Mauer falls in line now with the likes of Mike Napoli, Matt Weiters, Miguel Montero. Depending upon your confidence in his return from injuries, you could take him in the 5th round, or he could slide several rounds.
     
    Because he is eligible at catcher and will likely be an everyday player, Ryan Doumit should be considered a sleeper in many leagues. If you draft two catchers, take a flyer on him in the late rounds. Mauer and Doumit will likely have some position flexibility depending upon your league’s rules.
    Infielders
     
    Two years ago, Justin Morneau was a first-round fantasy selection. Last year, he still was drafted high because few knew believed his concussion would drag on as long as it did. At this point, Morneau should not be drafted in the first 15 rounds because of the risk and because there are so many good offensive first basemen. He could be taken as a late-round sleeper pick and just hope that he can stay healthy and eventually return to his typical production.
     
    If Alexi Casilla performs like he did after mid-May last year, and up until his season was cut short with injury, he’d be worth a last-round flyer as depth in the middle infield, eligible at shortstop and second base. Jamey Carroll is an on-base machine with eligibility at both middle infield positions, but his lack of power probably keeps him from being drafted. If you believe Danny Valencia will play like he did in 2010, he’s worth a late round pick as the backup 3B for your roster.
    Outfielders
     
    As it relates to the Twins outfielders, their fantasy value is going to be different based on the type of league. If your league is heavy on on-base percentage and home runs, then Josh Willingham could be a middle-round option. If Stolen Bases are one of your categories, then Ben Revere and his quest for 80-100 steals could be taken fairly early (maybe even as early as the 8th round or so). Denard Span is the most well-rounded of the trio providing extra base hits with on base percentage and some stolen bases. At the end of the day, in most leagues, all would probably be drafted around the same time, likely in rounds 14-18.
    Starting Pitchers
     
    Again, the type of league you are in and the scoring systems will dictate who gets drafted where. Do “Wins” matter? Do strikeouts and innings pitched matter? Are categories like ERA and WHIP included?
    Scott Baker is the Twins best pitcher, but there are likely going to be question marks surrounding his elbow and durability. He likely provides good ERA, WHIP and K/9. Francisco Liriano has the talent to be very good, but he is such an anomaly. If he is right, he has the ability to be a Top 10-15 pitcher in baseball. If he pitches like last year, you don’t want him on your roster. The goal with Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis will be to eat a lot of innings and not be too far below league average in terms of ERA. None will walk too many batters, but all will give up a lot of hits.
     
    I’d recommend Baker as an option around the 12th round with Liriano following a few rounds later. Unless you have a very deep league, the other three starters likely would not be drafted.
    Relief Pitchers
     
    We all know that Matt Capps was pretty bad in 2011. But from a fantasy baseball perspective, he is a viable draft option as a closer. All closers accumulate Saves. Capps does so by walking so few that he generally has a low WHIP. And, through most of his career, he has posted very good ERA. His 2011 strikeout rate is alarming. As it relates to your fantasy baseball draft, Capps should be one of the final relievers drafted. In fact, a couple of set up men like Kenley Jansen should probably be drafted ahead of Capps. In fact, you’ll need to consider whether or not you think Glen Perkins will take over the closer role at some point or not.
    Prospects
     
    A year ago, Kyle Gibson was drafted in some fantasy baseball drafts. The thought was that he would be called up in June and be a difference-maker the final four months of the season. In 2012, there are not any Twins minor leaguers that should be drafted at this time. That said, there are some to put on your Watch List right away. If the Twins need a starting pitcher, Liam Hendriks could be the first called up. If Justin Morneau is out, see if the Twins go to Chris Parmelee to replace him. And, if there is a need in the outfield, the Twins could go to Joe Benson.
    SUMMARY
     
    Based on my above thoughts, here is a summary of where Twins players could be drafted in an average 12-14 team league with 24 rounds.

    Joe Mauer (Rounds 5-8)
    Scott Baker (Rounds 12-15)
    Josh Willingham (Rounds 12-15)
    Denard Span (Rounds 14-16)
    Francisco Liriano (Rounds 14-16)
    Ben Revere (Rounds 15-17 – Top 10 rounds if SB are valued in your league)
    Ryan Doumit (Rounds 16-18)
    Justin Morneau (Rounds 20-22)
    Matt Capps (Rounds 21-23)
    Alexi Casilla, Jamey Carroll, Danny Valencia, Carl Pavano (Rounds 23-24)
    Please feel free to discuss.
  10. Seth Stohs

    Zumaya Injured?

    By Seth Stohs,

    Within the last half-hour, Joel Zumaya impressed local media and then he abruptly ended his session, walking off the mound with trainer Rick McWane. Zumaya said he was OK but with his injury history, this does become a story.
     
    Star Tribune's Jim Souhan tweeted "Never draw conclusions from BP but Zumaya is throwing quite hard. It seems."
     
    Three minutes later, the scribe tweeted, "Zumaya ends session early. Walks off with trainer. Says he's ok but..."
     
    The Twins signed Zumaya in January to a one year, non-guaranteed, Major League contract. It is worth $800,000 with incentives if he makes the Opening Day roster. If he does not make the Opening Day roster, the team will pay him $400,000.
     
    So although it is possible that Zumaya ended his pitching session early just to be precautious, it certainly is a story worth watching.
  11. Seth Stohs
    “There comes a point when you can only torture yourself so long.”
     
    Those are the words of Justin Morneau (courtesy Phil Mackey on Twitter), uttered just this morning while speaking to reporters for the first time since reporting yesterday to Hammond Stadium in Ft. Myers. Today the Twins will hold their first full squad workout of spring training.
     
    Mackey tweeted Morneau’s quotes, “I don’t know if I can be a full, 100 percent go, but I’m going to go out there and participate in everything and take it day by day.”
     
    The quotes are pretty straight-forward. Clearly, Morneau is not completely past concussion symptoms. To me, it sounds like he is a guy who has decided to just go all-out until he can’t again. It’s like a pitcher with some elbow soreness who decides that he is just going to air-it-out on his bullpen sessions until it either feels better or snaps.
     
    There has never been any question about Justin Morneau’s toughness or his willingness to play with pain. It sounds like he has worked hard and is in good shape. But concussions are not something to mess around with.
     
    Morneau has a young family and is just 30 years old. He has, hopefully, another 60 years left on this earth to spend with them, so it is understandable that he wants to be able to enjoy those years.
     
    At the same time, Morneau came in on Thursday and took a full round of batting practice. He said he is going to work out with the team today. I read his comments as, he is feeling good right now, but based on what he has experienced the last couple of years, he doesn’t know how he will feel tomorrow, or next week or sometime next month.
     
    I’m sure he has looked to his Twins mentor Corey Koskie for advice. As you recall, Koskie was still relatively young when he had to abruptly retire because his concussion symptoms never did go away.
     
    Morneau sounds like a man who is ready to take that retirement step should he go through another concussion. And frankly, I don’t blame him at all. Baseball is a great game. We all love the Twins. Morneau was an MVP who led this team through several very good years. We all appreciate that. He has earned the kind of money already so that his family’s needs will be met.
     
    I've said throughout the offseason that I thought anything the Twins got from Morneau in 2012 should be considered a bonus, and my opinion doesn't change based on these quotes. I certainly am hopefully he can be close to what he was in his best days. But don’t give up on Justin Morneau and the Twins just yet. Let’s see how this plays out. For now, he’s ready to go, excited for spring and hopeful for another strong season. That’s what Twins fans should hope for. He also clearly has had some very difficult discussions with himself and those close to him and is realistic as well.
  12. Seth Stohs

    Twins Draft History

    By Seth Stohs,

    Over the next several months, Twins fans are going to hear a lot about the June MLB draft, and for good reason. The Twins have the #2 overall pick and five picks in the Top 100. Coming off of a 99 loss season, and having a middle-of-the-pack minor league system, it is important to take advantage of the draft. In coming months, you’ll read names like Mark Appel, Lucas Giolito, Devin Marrero, Byron Buxton and Mike Zunino frequently. Today I wanted to look at the draft a little differently.
     
    It is said that it usually takes five or six years to start judging a team’s draft. I would contend that it really takes ten years. Consider that some high school players who are drafted don’t get to the big leagues for eight or nine seasons. Consider there are players that don’t sign and go to college for three years before getting drafted again. It takes them several years sometimes.
     
    Yes, for the below report, I am going to include players that the Twins drafted but did not sign who made it to the big leagues. Seeing talent, and future big league talent, is what scouting is all about. Some late-round picks haven’t signed and went to college. There are some players that the Twins have redrafted. There are other players that the Twins have drafted but didn’t sign who they have brought in later as free agents or in trades.
    To start, I’ll give a more detailed look at the Twins 2002 draft and show how many of the 50 draft picks made it to each level. After that, I’ll show how many players from each year’s Twins draft have made it to the big leagues. I’ll go back to 1987 as that is when many of the current Twins scouts and scouting directors began working with the Twins.
    The 2002 Draft:
     
    For the players who were drafted and signed in 2002, 2012 will be their 11th professional season. There is some chance that one or maybe two more players will get a cup of coffee in the big leagues.

    MLB Players (9): Denard Span (1), Jesse Crain (2), Clete Thomas (5), Pat Neshek (6), Adam Lind (8), Kyle Phillips (10), Evan Meek (11), Jeff Clement (12), Garrett Mock (14).
    AAA (7): Ricky Barrett (7), Doug Deeds (9), Josh Petersen (24), James Avery (29), Toby Gardenhire (38), Brock Peterson (49), Mike Ballard (50)
    AA (5): Adam Harben (15), Adam Daniels (19), Danny Matienzo (23), Christian Castorri (34), Kyle Geiger (42)
    A (10): Bo Pettit (13), Adam Hawes (17), Ryan Schreppel (20), TJ Prunty (21), Justin Keeling (25), Ron Perodin (27), Hasan Rasheed (28), Roberto Martinez (30), Tarrence Pattersen (35), John Cahill (36)
    Ten players peaked in Rookie Ball, and nine players that didn’t sign did not play in affiliated baseball again. Among them was their 45th round pick, a pitcher from Holy Angels HS in Minnesota named John Stocco, who went to Wisconsin and became their quarterback. TJ Prunty is another St. Paul kid who the Twins drafted out of high school, but he went down to Miami to play football before the Twins drafted him again. Three of the players who have peaked at AAA are still playing. Without looking at all teams for a decade of drafts, it is impossible to put this into context, but my assumption is that this breakdown would put the Twins and their scouts in a positive light.
    Big Leaguers from Twins Drafts (1987-2001)

    2001 (5): Joe Mauer (1), Jose Morales (3), Kevin Cameron (13), Matt Macri (17), Nick Blackburn (29)
    2000 (8): Adam Johnson (1), Aaron Heilman (1s), JD Durbin (2), Jason Miller (4), Josh Rabe (11), Jason Kubel (12), Paul Maholm (17), Daniel Davidson (28)
    1999 (8): Rob Bowen (2), Justin Morneau (3), Brian Wolfe (6), Brian Slocum (14), Travis Bowyer (20), Willie Eyre (23), Terry Tiffee (26), Pat Neshek (45)
    1998 (7): Saul Rivera (9), Mike Gosling (14), JJ Putz (17), Kevin Thompson (18), Juan Padilla (24), Kevin Frederick (34), Tommy Watkins (38)
    1997 (7): Michael Cuddyer (1), Matthew LeCroy (1s), Michael Restovich (2), Kevin Frederick (17), JC Romero (21), Adam Johnson (25), Nick Punto (33)
    1996 (9): Travis Lee (1), Jacque Jones (2), Chad Allen (4), Michael Ryan (5), Chad Moeller (7), Mike Lincoln (13), Matt Kata (20), Mike Lamb (31), Josh Bard (35)
    1995 (6): Mark Redman (1), AJ Hinch (3), Doug Mientkiewicz (5), Mike Moriarity (7), Robert Ramsay (17), Jeff Harris (28)
    1994 (7): Todd Walker (1), Travis Miller (1s), Cleatus Davidson (2), AJ Pierzynski (3), Corey Koskie (26), Brandon Puffer (27), Brian Lawrence (39)
    1993 (14): Torii Hunter (1), Jason Varitek (1), Dan Perkins (2), Javier Valentin (3), Benj Sampson (4), Kelly Dransfeldt (7), Kevin Ohme (9), Alex Cora (12), Ryan Radmanovich (14), Danny Kolb (17), Shane Bowers (21), Rod Radlosky (22), Emil Brown (27), Lance Carter (41).
    1992 (6): Dan Serafini (1), Gus Gandarillos (3), Dan Naulty (14), Scott Watkins (23), Gary Matthews (38), Craig Dingman (50).
    1991 (7): David McCarty (1), Scott Stahoviak (1s), Mike Durant (2), LaTroy Hawkins (7), Brad Radke (8), Matt Lawton (13), Tim Davis (34)
    1990 (11): Todd Ritchie (1), Midre Cummings (1), Jayhawk Owens (2), Rich Becker (3), Brent Brede (5), James Mouton (8), Pat Meares (12), Jeff Granger (14), Damian Miller (20), Eddie Guardado (21), Brian Raabe (41)
    1989 (10): Chuck Knoblauch (1), Denny Neagle (3), Scott Erickson (4), Marty Cordova (10), Dan Mastellar (11), Mike Trombley (14), George Tsamis (15), Derrick White (23), Tim Urbani (29), Denny Hocking (52).
    1988 (7): Alan Newman (2), Steve Dunn (4), Pat Mahomes (6), Doug Simons (9), JT Bruett (11), Scott Stahoviak (27), Aaron Sele (37)
    1987 (9): Willie Banks (1), Terry Jorgensen (2), Larry Casian (6), Mark Guthrie (7), Shawn Gilbert (12), Chip Hale (17), Dan Smith (22), Bret Boone (28), Craig Paquette (36).
    Obviously this is only one way to judge a draft. Ideally teams will want an All-Star or two to come out of every draft, but that’s not realistic. The draft and scouting is such an inexact science. It is also such an important part of building a roster and an organization. Not all players are going to be All-Stars, but it is important to have role players too.
  13. Seth Stohs

    Twins Two-Way Planning

    By Seth Stohs,

    Players with less than three years of major league service time will typically sign one year, two-way contracts. Now that spring training has started, expect many of the Twins players to sign such contracts in the next week. These two-way contracts are for a certain dollar value if the player is in the big leagues, and another (significantly smaller) dollar value if they are playing in the minor leagues.
     
    The Two-Way Contract means that a player is EITHER making $X in the big leagues OR $(X – LOTS) in the minor leagues.
    With Terry Ryan at the helm and so many difficult questions to be answered when the season starts, it appears that the Twins have set up a Two-Way Planning system for the 2012 season. How it plays out will be determined by a series of EITHER/OR scenarios.
     
    The biggest EITHER/OR scenario is will the Twins be able to complete for a division title in 2012? We can all make assumptions, but we don’t know, and there are so many factors.
    FACTORS

    The health of Joe Mauer
    The health of Justin Morneau
    The health of Denard Span
    The elbow of Scott Baker
    The durability of Carl Pavano
    The mindset and performance of Francisco Liriano
    The improvements of Danny Valencia, Ben Revere and other young players
    Matt Capps ability to get outs in the 9th
    2-5 bullpen arms need to step up and contribute consistently well.
    Minor Leaguers coming up and contributing when needed throughout the season (Hendriks, Diamond, Gutierrez, Guerra, Waldrop, Oliveros, Benson, Parmelee, Dozier, etc.)

    Each one of those ten Factors was a factor whether or not the Twins brought in any free agents. If seven or eight of those factors wind up positive for the Twins, they have a chance to compete.
     
    NEW VARIABLES

    Josh Willingham – The outfielder will likely replace the offensive production of Michael Cuddyer and play about as well defensively. He has a career track record of walking a lot, striking out a lot and hitting a bunch of home runs.
    Jamey Carroll – the middle infielder should help solidify an infield defense that was pretty atrocious last year. He also perfectly profiles as a #2 hitter due to a very good on-base percentage.
    Ryan Doumit – Likely becomes the team’s #2 starting catcher meaning he should start most of the games that Joe Mauer doesn’t behind the plate. On other days, he should get a lot of time as a DH, at 1B and even in RF. Offensively, he should add plenty of extra base hits.
    Jason Marquis – Although many Twins fans did not like this acquisition (and I’m not wild about it myself), Marquis has put together a pretty solid career. He was even pretty good last year in Washington (9-5, 3.95 ERA) before being traded to Arizona where he hurt his leg. He strikes out about as many Pavano. Let’s hope that he can eat that many innings!
    Joel Zumaya - The ultimate in ‘injury risk,’ Zumaya hasn’t pitched in nearly two years. However, he had a good throwing session in front of a lot of scouts. He still throws pretty hard. It will be very interesting to see how the Twins use him and how much he has to contribute.

    Although none of the above are All-Stars (with the possible exception of Willingham), they are the types of players that will compliment the roster well.
    The Two-Way Plan
     
    All of that background gets us to The Two-Way Plan for July. Because we don’t know for sure how it will play out, they will need to be written as IF/THEN statements.
    Scenario One
     
    IF seven or eight of the factors listed above are going positively, AND the Twins are getting positive performances from their minor leaguers and these new players, AND the team is in contention in mid-July, THEN they will have plenty of payroll flexibility to add a significant piece or two at the deadline, if they choose.
    Scenario Two
     
    However, IF things are not going well, AND they are enduring another year of injuries to key players, AND players are not stepping up as needed, AND the Twins find themselves well out of contention in July, THEN they have accumulated a lot of trade pieces to start a more rapid rebuilding plan.
     
    Carl Pavano, Jason Marquis and Francisco Liriano are all free agents at the end of the season. They could be traded. Scott Baker has an option at just over $9 million. He could be traded. Alexi Casilla, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll could both be traded to a contender needing to fill a role. If the Twins sour on any of their players that are out of options, they could be traded.
     
    The Twins have a $100 million payroll, so they are saying the right things, saying that they believe that with accountability, healthy and performance, they can compete. They have done so while also being in a position to go to a full-blown rebuild if the situation presents itself. I don’t know if that strategy is intentional, but the roster sets up to accommodate either option.
  15. Seth Stohs
    Our good friends over at Twinkie Town have spent the past couple of months working on their community Top 50 Twins Prospect list. Each day, those who went to their site were able to cast their vote for a player. The player with the most votes gets the spot, and the next day they would vote for the next spot. They started at #1 and worked all the way to #50 and the best part was community discussion each round.
     
    I thought it would be fun to compare and contrast my Top 50 Twins Prospect list to the Twinkie Town list. The top five on each list are the exact same, but after that, there are some significant differences, and by the time it reaches the end of the list, there are several names that don’t appear on both lists. So, as pitchers and catchers are set to report to Ft. Myers on Saturday and SethSpeaks.net is winding down, discuss these lists and feel free to post your own rankings.
     
    [TABLE]


    Rank

    SethSpeaks Top 50

    Twinkie Town Top 50



    1

    Miguel Sano

    Miguel Sano



    2

    Eddie Rosario

    Eddie Rosario



    3

    Oswaldo Arcia

    Oswaldo Arcia



    4

    Aaron Hicks

    Aaron Hicks



    5

    Joe Benson

    Joe Benson



    6

    Liam Hendriks

    Kyle Gibson



    7

    Kyle Gibson

    Chris Parmelee



    8

    Adrian Salcedo

    Liam Hendriks



    9

    Alex Wimmers

    Brian Dozier



    10

    Chris Parmelee

    Chris Herrmann



    11

    Brian Dozier

    Max Kepler



    12

    Travis Harrison

    Levi Michael



    13

    Tom Stuifbergen

    Adrian Salcedo



    14

    Angel Morales

    Alex Wimmers



    15

    Chris Herrmann

    Angel Morales



    16

    Manuel Soliman

    Carlos Gutierrez



    17

    Levi Michael

    Tom Stuifbergen



    18

    Max Kepler

    Travis Harrison



    19

    Niko Goodrum

    Niko Goodrum



    20

    Hudson Boyd

    Hudson Boyd



    21

    BJ Hermsen

    Logan Darnell



    22

    Danny Santana

    Madison Boer



    23

    Madison Boer

    Manuel Soliman



    24

    Terry Doyle

    David Bromberg



    25

    Logan Darnell

    BJ Hermsen



    26

    David Bromberg

    Lester Oliveros



    27

    JD Williams

    Matt Hauser



    28

    Matt Hauser

    Deolis Guerra



    29

    Jairo Perez

    Tyler Robertson



    30

    Pat Dean

    Scott Diamond



    31

    Matt Summers

    Terry Doyle



    32

    Danny Rams

    Nate Roberts



    33

    Scott Diamond

    Matt Summers



    34

    Angel Mata

    Cole DeVries



    35

    Corey Williams

    Corey Williams



    36

    Danny Ortiz

    Matt Bashore



    37

    Carlos Gutierrez

    JD Williams



    38

    Nate Roberts

    Danny Rams



    39

    Lance Ray

    Pat Dean



    40

    Deolis Guerra

    Andrew Albers



    41

    Michael Gonzales

    Dakota Watts



    42

    Lester Oliveros

    Tim Shibuya



    43

    Ryan O’Rourke

    Lance Ray



    44

    Hung-yi Chen

    Evan Bigley



    45

    James Beresford

    James Beresford



    46

    Bobby Lanigan

    Tony Davis



    47

    Tyler Grimes

    Danny Lehmann



    48

    Anderson Hidalgo

    Jorge Polanco



    49

    Tim Shibuya

    Angel Mata



    50

    Luis Nunez

    Jairo Perez

    [/TABLE]
     
     
    Any thoughts? Please feel free to e-mail me or use the Comments Section!
  17. Seth Stohs

    Aces of Baseball

    By Seth Stohs,

    Throughout the past few offseasons, the comments I hear most regarding the Twins needs involve the need to acquire an Ace. In fact, I’ve said it a few times myself. Of course, that isn’t completely true and it is never the full story. You see, for the mid-90s, the Twins had not only an Ace, but the best pitcher in baseball, and that didn’t get them to the second round of the playoffs. The 2011 Phillies boasted a starting rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt and didn’t get to the World Series. That rotation has two definite Aces, a borderline ace and a former ace.
     
    I’d also caution that many people, one year ago, felt that Francisco Liriano fell into the borderline ace category. That is just one example of why I believe that to be a true ace, there has to be greatness over several seasons. Another example would be Ubaldo Jimenez who was dominant for half of the 2010 season but hasn’t been great since. Like Liriano, Jimenez has a chance to return to ace-like status, but we shall see.
     
    With that, I took to Twitter yesterday where I asked my ‘followers’ which current major league pitchers would or should be classified as True Aces. The response was great, and I will break this into the true aces (my opinion), and those on the borderline (my opinion).
     
    True Aces:

    Justin Verlander (Year 3 of five year, $80 million contract - $20M)
    Clayton Kershaw (Year 1 of two year, $19 million contract - $7.5M)
    Tim Lincecum (Year 1 of two year, $40.5 million contract - $18M)
    CC Sabathia (Year 1 of five year, $122 million contract - $23M)
    Felix Hernandez (Year 3 of five year, $78 million contract - $18.5M)
    Cliff Lee (Year 2 of five year, $120 million contract - $21.5M)
    Roy Halladay (Year 2 of three year, $60 million contract - $20M)
    Jared Weaver (Year 1 of five year, $85 million contract - $14M)
    Dan Haren (Year 4 of four year, $44.75 million contract - $12.75M - $15.5M club option for 2013)
    Yovani Gallardo (Year 3 of five year, $30.1 million contract, $5.5M)
    Matt Cain (Year 3 of three year, $27.25 million contract, $15M)
    Chris Carpenter (Year 1 of two year, $21 million contract - $10.5M)

    Borderline Aces:

    Josh Johnson (Year 3 of four year, $39 million contract - $13.75M)
    Cole Hamels (avoided arbitration, $15M)
    Adam Wainright (Year 5 of four year, $15 million contract – Cardinals picked up $9M option for 2012 despite Tommy John surgery)
    Zach Greinke (Year 4 of four year, $38 million contract - $13.5M)
    Matt Garza (avoided arbitration, $9.5 M)
    Jon Lester (Year 4 of five year, $30 million contract, $7.625M)
    Josh Beckett (Year 2 of four year, $68 million contract - $15.75M)
    David Price (avoided arbitration, $4.25M)
    Ricky Romero (Year 2 of five year, $30.1 million contract, $5M)
    Anibal Sanchez (won arbitration, 1 year, $8M)

    Could be an Ace quickly: Matt Moore, Stephen Strasburg, Mat Latos, Yu Darvish, Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Tommy Hanson, Julio Teheran, Gerrit Cole, Dylan Bundy.
     
    So, when I hear Twins fans say, “We (meaning, the Twins) need an Ace,” I will frequently say, “I agree. How are the Twins going to get one?”
     
    Not one pitcher in that top list is available. Part of the reason they are in that top list is that, so far, they have been able to stay healthy. Johan Santana used to be in that category, but now that he hasn’t pitched for over 18 months, I’m not so sure he should be there any further. In the “Borderline” category, there are some guys who have been really good for a short period of time, or there is some injury concern or some inconsistency.
     
    We can argue what an Ace is, who is or who isn’t. That’s not really the point here. The point is that they are not easy to come by. These guys are not available, and after the Mat Latos trade earlier this offseason, it’s understandable to see why. Latos was traded to the Reds from the Padres in exchange for Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Brad Boxberger. Part of that is because Latos is not even arbitration-eligible for another year. However, the Cubs have been trying to trade Matt Garza much of the offseason and either are not getting any interest or the asking price is beyond what anyone is willing to pay. Santana is probably a big reason why. When the Twins traded the two-time Cy Young winner to the Mets, he was baseball’s best pitcher. He was good for another year and a half and then he did what most pitchers do, he got hurt. Of course, he could still come back. We shall see. But will he ever be what he was again? Probably not.
     
    More than half of the players listed above were drafted in the first half of the first round. The Twins have had one pick in the first half of the first round since 2002. The Twins have a big opportunity in the June draft when they have the 2nd overall pick. Mark Appel’s name is frequently mentioned as a possible choice. The Stanford right hander doesn’t really profile as an Ace, more like a 2 or 3 starter (like Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers or Liam Hendriks). Not that there is anything wrong with a 2 or 3 starter. Those are very good pitchers who will make a lot of money when they hit free agency. Lucas Giolito is another pitcher, a high school pitcher, who gets mentioned as a possible #2 pick. He profiles much more like a future Ace, but there is much more risk with a high school pitcher than with a college pitcher. Of course, by the time of the draft in June, there may be another name (pitcher or hitter) who is the best available player at that #2 spot and that’s who the Twins should take. The Twins have five picks in the top 100 picks this June.
     
    Along with signing Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Javier Pimentel and other talented Dominican hitters, the Twins have also done a good job signing several top Dominican pitchers in recent years. They have signed two top young pitchers from Taiwan.
     
    I completely agree with people who say that the Twins need an Ace. Frankly, the best way for that to happen is for Francisco Liriano to gain a little self-confidence, trust his stuff and become that pitcher again. He was there in 2010. It’s a contract-year for him, so it would be to his benefit if he did regain that form this year. Scott Baker was pitching as well as anyone last year before his elbow injuries. He really needs to step up too.
     
    And then they just have to find a way to sign the right draft picks and international players and develop them. Frankly, I’m not as worried about getting a True Ace. That doesn’t guarantee anything. But I do think that pitching does win, and if they had more #2s and #3s that were consistent, they would be just fine.
     
    Any thoughts? Please feel free to use the Comments Section!
     
    -----

    Last night, Travis Aune and I co-hosted a new Twins Minor League Weekly episode and discussed our Top 50 Twins prospects as well as the Top 100 rankings of several national writers.
    If you enjoyed last week’s SethSpeaks.net Weekly Twins podcast with several guests (Kyle Waldrop, Alex Margulies, Cory Provus, Jeff Manship, and Dan Rohlfing), you should tune in tonight at 9:00 for this week’s SethSpeaks.net Weekly Twins podcast with several more Twins guests.
    Finally, be sure to check out this week’s episode of Gleeman and the Geek.
    Nick wrote a first in a series of Things to Watch in 2012. He started with Glen Perkins’ Slider.

  18. Seth Stohs
    No, I do not think that the Twins should consider a trade to bring back former catcher AJ Pierzynski. I’m talking about whether or not the Twins should consider working on a trade with the Yankees to acquire RHP AJ Burnett.
     
    When asked about that idea weeks ago, my immediate response was “No, thank you!”
     
    But upon further review, I think it’s a valid question to ask. Burnett has been pretty bad the last two seasons. In 2010, he was 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. In 2011, he was 11-11 with a 5.15 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. He is also owed $33 million over the next two seasons. He turned 35 years old in January.
     
    All those reasons mean that the answer probably should be “No, thank you!” But maybe it isn’t and shouldn’t be that simple. It appears that a deal between the Yankees and the Pittsburgh Pirates is likely, but here are a few reasons that the Twins should at least make a quick phone call to Brian Cashman:
     

    The first assumption would have to be that the Yankees will cover $20-25 million of the $33 million remaining on Burnett’s contract. If that can’t be agreed upon, then there is zero reason to continue discussion.
    The second assumption is that the Yankees are not looking for a top prospect in return. Of course, if they’re going to hand over that much money, they will want something of quality too. If they think they’re going to get Miguel Sano, then the discussion can end too.
    He has made 32 or more starts each of the past four seasons. He has thrown more than 186 innings each of those seasons.
    Getting out of New York can be a good thing for many pitchers, especially after a bad year or two. Think anyone understands that better than Carl Pavano. The two were teammates with the Marlins from 2002 through 2004. Could playing in Minnesota and with an old teammate help Burnett reach his potential again?
    Burnett may be a big of an enigma, but he’s an enigma who throws really hard and has a really nasty slider and as recently as three years ago, he struck out more than a batter per inning.
    A rotation of Burnett, Liriano, Baker and Pavano is a pretty good start. Burnett has the stuff, like Liriano, to be a top of the rotation guy. Baker is a very good #2. Burnett has playoff experience and success.

    The case can also be made that he, like Liriano, may be a bit of a head case. We don’t know if he will improve by being out of New York. We don’t know that he will continue to be healthy. We don’t know what the Twins advanced scouts think of what he has left.
     
    It won’t happen, and it probably shouldn’t happen. At the end of the day, I probably would still say “No, Thank you!” The discussion is certainly worthwhile, and I have to assume that it was discussed at least to some level in the Twins front offices.
     
    Any thoughts? Please feel free to use the Comments Section!
  19. Seth Stohs

    Alexi and Arbitration

    By Seth Stohs,

    In the next couple of days, the Alexi Casilla arbitration situation will be over. Arbitration hearings are to be complete by February 15th. The sides are not to discuss when a hearing is scheduled, so we don’t know when the Twins and Casilla would have a hearing in front of an arbiter. Of course, it is also possible that the two sides will come to an agreement before going to arbitration.
     
    This is Casilla’s second year of arbitration. Last year, he signed before a hearing and played the 2011 season making $865,000. 2011 was a strange season for Casilla. He began the season as the Twins starting shortstop. In April, he hit .167/.227/.200 in 22 games. Trevor Plouffe was called up and got almost a dozen games at shortstop. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who was rehabbing his broken leg, was being moved to shortstop. Casilla was really bad. However, once you get past April, Casilla had a very solid season. Check out his monthly splits:


    April - .167/.227/.200
    May - .288/.351/.424
    June - .274/.349/.400
    July - .283/.333/.404
    Season - .260/.322/.368 in 97 games.
     
    Unfortunately, he played just one game in August and September combined due to an injury. If you recall, he came back for one game and was immediately placed on the disabled list again afterward.
     
    Casilla’s 97 games played in 2011 was on less than his career-high of 98 games played as a 23 year old in 2008. He will go into the 2012 season as the Twins starting second baseman, but frankly, many question if he isn’t best as a utility middle infielder.
     
    Casilla and his representation is asking for $1.75 million. The Twins offer was $1.065 million. The midpoint is $1.407 million. Here are some comparables:

    Robert Andino (Orioles) – Settled for $1.3 million
    Mike Aviles (Red Sox) – Settled for $1.2 million
    Jeff Baker (Cubs) – Settled for $1.375 million
    Emilio Bonifacio (Marlins) – WON at $2.2 million
    Mike Fontenot (Giants) – Settled at $1.05 million
    Chris Getz (Royals) – Settled for $968,000
    Jed Lowrie (Astros) – Settled for $1.15 million
     
    After reviewing this list and doing some comparison, I don’t think that Casilla is wrong in asking for $1.7 million. I personally think that the midpoint of $1.407 million seems fair. Obviously the Twins biggest case is that he hasn’t ever played in 100 games, so I don’t blame them for coming in low.
     
    My guess: Right before it would go to an arbitration hearing, they’ll agree to a one year, $1.4 million salary. I think that if it does go to arbitration, Casilla would likely win.
     
    Did You Know?
     
    It was on this day (February 11) in 1974 that this whole arbitration system was established? According to JJ Swol of Twins Trivia, 48 players invoked their new arbitration rights including Twins pitcher Dick Woodson. Woodson was seeking $30,000 and the Twins were offering $23,000. My how things have changed in nearly 40 years. Woodson won, by the way.
     
    Any thoughts? Please feel free to use the Comments Section!
  20. Seth Stohs
    Last night’s 90-minute SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota Twins podcast was a lot of fun! We talked to Kyle Waldrop about what it was like to finally getting his first big league opportunity after spending eight seasons in the Twins system. He discussed what he did in the offseason to improve and what he’s looking to show in spring training. Then Alex Margulies joined us to talk about how big league spring training affects the Ft. Myers Miracle front office. We also discussed how the Miracle has been ahead of the game in terms of technology. We also discussed Aaron Hicks, Alex Wimmers, Oswaldo Arcia and several other Twins prospects that spent time with the Miracle last year. It was treat to be joined by the new Voice of the Twins Cory Provus who has jumped headfirst into his new job. He’s spent time on the Twins Caravan, and he’s dug into the history of the Minnesota Twins. He’s learned a lot from Bob Uecker and Ron Santo, and although he’s just 31-32 years old, he’s worked in many jobs and many sports. You’ll enjoy this interview. Jeff Manship called in next to talk about his frustrating 2011 season and how he is working and preparing for the 2012 season. He’ll begin his trek to Ft. Myers today. It will be interesting to see how his spring training goes. Will he start or work out of the bullpen? Finally, Dan Rohlfing called into the podcast. He is a non-roster invite to big league camp as a catcher. For the first time in his career, he got a chance to play nearly every day. Like Chris Herrmann, Rohlfing is a great athlete and when he didn’t catch, he was playing in the outfield. He was entertaining as well. It was a fun show for me. I definitely enjoy chatting with players and other Twins personnel, especially as spring training is coming quickly. However, I do want your thoughts, your opinions or suggestions. Any feedback on the podcasts is very welcome, so please feel free to e-mail me at sethspeaksnet@hotmail.com or leave your questions, comments and ideas in the Comments Section!
  21. Seth Stohs
    OK, so the show hasn’t been exactly weekly of late. Frankly, the ratings haven’t been where we would like them to be. However, tonight at 9:00 central time, I’ll be hosting a 90-minute Twins podcast. We’ll get caught up on the goings-on around the Twins as we are now about one week from pitchers and catchers reporting! We’ll discuss the offseason and look forward to the 2012 season. You’ll want to join because I’m in the process of lining up several guests to discuss the upcoming season. As I get confirmations, I’ll be sure to share them. But put it on your calendar. 9:00 tonight. Listen Live. And, if you have any topics you would like us to cover, be sure to e-mail me at sethspeaksnet@hotmail.com or leave your questions and topics in the Comments Section!
     
    Confirmed Guests: Alex Margulies, Cory Provus, Jeff Manship, Kyle Waldrop, Mark Hamburger.
  22. Seth Stohs
    Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2012 – Now Available as an e-book for $6.99 by clicking here. You can, of course, still get the print version for $13.99 by clicking here.
     
     
    Today, we will conclude our Organizational Depth Chart by looking at the Relief Pitchers. Frankly, it is kind of a mess thanks to about 89 minor league veterans brought in, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. As I said on Monday, many starters will get time as a reliever, and vice versa. This is especially true in the lower levels of the minor leagues where innings limits are still so important. The Twins bullpen in 2011 was pretty much horrible. They had lost Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier, both guys who had long been in the Twins bullpen. They also let Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes, and Ron Mahay departed via free agency. Each made huge money for relievers in free agency. As I’ve said, I would have wanted to bring back Crain, but I definitely understood letting the others go. The Twins brought in some minor league free agents, but as they had done so many times before, they made the decision to build a bullpen from within. Needing two or three pitchers to step up, only Glen Perkins really stepped up throughout the season. Anthony Swarzak was a surprise success as well in long relief and as a spot starter. Joe Nathan struggled in his return. Matt Capps just struggled. Two pitchers that likely would have been counted on to perform, Jeff Manship and Anthony Slama were out most of the season with injuries. Had those two been healthy all season, it could have been a better situation. To the surprise of many, the Twins seem to have gone with much the same philosophy in 2012. Instead of going after retread relievers, they are choosing to believe in their in-house options. They brought back Capps, are taking a flyer on Joel Zumaya, and have invited a small village of minor league veteran pitchers with some big league experience. All in the attempt to hope that three or four of them step up. It’s a philosophy I completely agree with despite the fact that it went very wrong in 2011. Then again, pretty much everything went wrong for the Twins in 2011. Fortunately 2012 is a new year. You can clamor for guys like Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls and Todd Coffey all you want. Or you can realize that they all struggled early in their careers and didn’t become big league regulars until late in their careers. They didn’t succeed in their first opportunities in the big leagues, and they have all had their struggles in the big leagues even after being given regular bullpen duties. So, although I am incredibly nervous about the Twins bullpen, and don’t have any idea how they will perform in 2012, I do think they have some talent, some young talent that should continue to get opportunities. That’s just smart. Relievers who are good year in and year out are a rarity. Are there a dozen in the entire big leagues that you could say have been lights out, have been difference-makers each of the past five seasons? (I’ll give you Mariano Rivera… you name another 10.) Because of that, bringing in 26-30 year olds with good arms and some measure of success makes a lot of sense to me.
     
    Below you will get a look at the names of many Twins minor league pitchers who will likely spend a lot of time in bullpens this upcoming season. I need to reiterate that these are just my thoughts. I have no insider information to know where players will be playing for certain in 2012. Obviously after spring training, some of these players will be let go. There will be Disabled List players, extended spring training and more.
     
    Minnesota Twins
     
    Matt Capps (RHP), Glen Perkins (LHP), Joel Zumaya (RHP), Brian Duensing (LHP), Alex Burnett (RHP), Anthony Swarzak (RHP), Jeff Gray (RHP), Terry Doyle (RHP-R5)
     
    Some Twins fans choose to say that Matt Capps has been pretty bad in two of the last three years. Since it’s less than two weeks before spring training, so I’ll say that he’s been really good in four of his last six seasons! If healthy, he’ll be solid at the end of games. I think Glen Perkins proved himself throughout the 2011 season to believe he can be a dominant lefty reliever again in 2012. Brian Duensing likely moves to the bullpen. He is one of baseball’s best at getting left-handed hitters out, but one of the worst at getting right-handers out. Joel Zumaya hasn’t pitched since 2010, and hasn’t pitched a full season since 2006, but I guess there is a chance he could be really good for half of the season! Anthony Swarzak is out of options and he really proved himself in long-relief and spot-starting last year. He could find himself being thrown into more high leverage situations in 2012. Alex Burnett has the arguably the best stuff in the bullpen and hopefully he will be able to put it all together. He won’t turn 25 until late July. If Terry Doyle pitches fairly well in spring training, I believe that he will make the team. If a starter is hurt, he could be the guy to make some starts early in the season, or he could be a long reliever. I also believe that Jeff Gray will make this roster as well. He is on the 40 man roster and out of options.
     
    Rochester Red Wings
     
    Anthony Slama (RHP), Carlos Gutierrez (RHP), Lester Oliveros (RHP), Cole DeVries (RHP), Deolis Guerra (RHP), Kyle Waldrop (RHP), Esmerling Vazquez (RHP), Tyler Robertson (LHP), Jared Burton (RHP), Jason Bulger (RHP), Samuel Deduno (RHP), Phil Dumatrait (LHP), Casey Fien (RHP), Luis Perdomo (RHP), Daryl Thompson (RHP), PJ Walters (RHP), Brendan Wise (RHP), Luke French (LHP), Brad Thompson (RHP), Matt Maloney (LHP)
     
    What a mess spring training will be? The Twins will have to play a few split-squad games to get all of these guys innings. Inexplicably, Anthony Slama has never been given a shot by the Twins despite 10.3 K/9 and a 2.59 ERA in 92 AAA appearances. I think Lester Oliveros has a chance to be pretty good but he needs more time. The Twins don’t need to rush him (like they did with Alex Burnett). The Twins claimed Vazquez from the Diamondbacks on the last day of the 2011 season. He’s a hard-thrower with control issues. The same can be said for Deduno and Perdomo. Kyle Waldrop finally got a shot with the Twins in September and he should be given a very legitimate opportunity to make the Twins opening day roster and get time throughout the season with the Twins. The two non-roster invites that have a legitimate chance of making the big league roster early in the season are Jared Burton and Jason Bulger. Each has had quite a bit of big league success. Burton has been hurt much of the past two seasons. Bulger spent a long time with the Angels. Phil Dumatrait got way too much time with the Twins last year. Carlos Gutierrez and Tyler Robertson were added to the 40 man roster this offseason. Gutierrez made the move to the bullpen last year and pitched pretty well until shoulder issues. Still walks too many though. Robertson was terrific in the second half of last season as the New Britain closer. The lefty may not throw hard, but he was quite successful in his first season in the bullpen. Cole DeVries had a tremendous 2011 including a very good performance in the hitting Arizona Fall League. Matt Maloney is on the 40 man roster. The left-hander was brought in before Terry Ryan was named GM, but as a former Reds pitcher, it is likely that he was recommended by Wayne Krivsky, which makes him intriguing. He is on the 40 man roster and out of options, but there is a chance he could go unclaimed. Non-roster invites Burton, Bulger, Deduno, Dumatrait, Fien, Perdomo, Walters, French and the two Thompsons all have spent some time in the big leagues. Liam Hendriks said in a recent podcast that Brendan Wise is similar to Kyle Waldrop in terms of ability to get a lot of ground balls. The Aussie has been very good in AAA the last two years. Finally, it is a huge year for Deolis Guerra. After being really bad as a starting pitcher, he moved to the New Britain bullpen last year and was incredible. Suddenly he had better control, gave up less hits and struck out more than a batter an inning. How will he perform in AAA in 2012? It will be interesting to watch. I suspect we will see him by season’s end. He has one option left.
     
    New Britain Rock Cats
     
    Matt Hauser (RHP), Andrew Albers (LHP), Brett Jacobson (RHP), Daniel Turpen (RHP), Tony Davis (LHP), Blake Martin (LHP), Cole Nelson (LHP), Spencer Steedley (LHP), Ricky Bowen (RHP), Jhon Garcia (RHP), Bruce Pugh (RHP), Dakota Watts (RHP), Steve Hirschfeld (RHP)
     
    Will any of the leftovers from the Twins minor league signings move down to AA? We shall see. Matt Hauser ended the 2011 season with one appearance with the Rock Cats. He is a hard-throwing right hander who I think will be a big breakout candidate in 2012. Andrew Albers was the story of the year in the Twins system last year and my choice for Twins Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year. Brett Jacobson, Blake Martin and Spencer Steedley spent 2011 in New Britain, each splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. Turpen came over from Colorado in the Kevin Slowey deal. He throws hard and side-arm but gets no strikeouts. Bruce Pugh and Dakota Watts both had disappointing 2011 seasons between Ft. Myers and New Britain. Each struggled in the Arizona Fall League. But each throws really hard and if they can find any measure of control, they are legit prospects. Hirschfeld was my choice for Twins minor league pitcher of the month in both April and May. He struggled in June and moved to the bullpen, which is likely where he’ll wind up. Tony Davis is not a big guy, but he throws left-handed and touches 94-95 mph. He missed about half of last season with a shoulder surgery. He will be ready for spring training. Cole Nelson is a Minnesota native who came over from Detroit in the Delmon Young trade. Ricky Bowen signed with the Twins in May and did a nice job pitching out of the Ft. Myers bullpen. Jhon Garcia throws hard and can pitch in any role in the bullpen and spot start.
     
    Ft. Myers Miracle
     
    Jose Gonzalez (LHP), Michael Tonkin (RHP), Clinton Dempster (RHP), Bart Carter (LHP), Nelvin Fuentes (LHP), Edgar Ibarra (LHP), Kane Holbrooks (RHP), Matt Schuld (RHP), Brad Stillings (RHP), Caleb Thielbar (LHP), Blayne Weller (RHP), Miguel Munoz (RHP)
     
    Jose Gonzalez was the closer in Beloit last year. He’ll likely continue in that role with the Miracle. He’s not tall and resembles Jose Mijares, but he throws hard and has a terrific slider. Michael Tonkin moved to the bullpen in 2011 and pitched very well. Dempster was terrific in the bullpen for Beloit but struggled upon his promotion to Ft. Myers. Carter dominated in Elizabethton and then pitched very well for the Snappers. A four year college guy, he should be pushed. Nelvin Fuentes has been pitching well for Puerto Rico in international competition. He has also steadily moved up the Twins system. The lefty works slow but he gets hitters out. Edgar Ibarra struggled in the Miracle rotation last year but finished strong in the bullpen. Kane Holbrooks had a tremendous 2010 season that saw him pitch well in Beloit, Ft. Myers and New Britain. 2011 was disappointing. He pitched well with no run support in April, but then he really struggled. He then missed the last couple of months. St. Thomas alum Matt Schuld pitched very well in Ft. Myers and then threw pretty well in New Britain. I only have him in Ft. Myers because of the numbers crunch at the higher levels. Caleb Thielbar became the first player the Twins signed from the St. Paul Saints and pitched in a few games for the Miracle. Blayne Weller pitched in the bullpen in Beloit although he ended the season pitching well as a starter. Miguel Munoz made his first start last year with the Miracle, hurt his elbow and then didn’t pitch again until late in the season. In his return to the Miracle, he re-aggravated the elbow injury and was shut down. Reports indicate that he did not have elbow surgery and rehabbed throughout the offseason.
     
    Beloit Snappers
     
    Corey Williams (LHP), Steve Evans (LHP), Steven Gruver (LHP), Jason Wheeler (LHP), David Hurlbut (LHP), Corey Kimes (LHP), Garrett Jewell (RHP), Cole Johnson (RHP), Tobias Streich (RHP), Jhonatan Arias (RHP).
     
    Corey Williams was the Twins 3rd round pick just a year ago. The lefty signed for nearly double the slot recommendation. But the Twins are quite excited about him. He’s another hard thrower, said to have nasty stuff and a strong mentality. Evans, Gruver, Hurlbut and Johnson were all 2011 draft picks out of college that pitched well at Elizabethton during the summer. Kimes pitched in just a couple of games before suffering from mono. Jason Wheeler was the team’s 8th round pick and signed at the deadline. He will debut in 2012. Tobias Streich and Jhonatan Arias were both strong-armed catchers without much bat. Last year at Instructs, the two were moved from behind the plate to the mound. The Twins have done this in the past with mixed results. Tim Lahey was drafted as a catcher, but a year later he moved to the mound, and although he didn’t get to the big leagues, he spent 3 years in AAA as a reliever. Danny Santiesteban was an outfielder with a bunch of tools in the lower levels of the Twins system for a few years. He was moved to the mound but was released soon after. (By the way, Santiesteban has been a hitting star for the Newark Bears of the independent leagues the last couple of years.)
     
    Elizabethton Twins
     
    Luis Nunez (LHP), Ricardo Arevalo (RHP), Nathan Fawbush (RHP), Tyler Herr (RHP), Gonzalo Sanudo (RHP), Markus Solbach (RHP)
     
    Luis Nunez went 5-0 with 5 saves and a 1.67 ERA in 16 relief appearances in the GCL. The 20-year-old lefty throws gas with decent (but improving) secondary stuff. He is certainly one to watch. Tyler Herr is a tall right-hander who showed improvement in his second year in the GCL. Arevalo has gone 0-11 with a 4.37 ERA in 25 games over the past two years in the GCL. Nathan Fawbush is another tall kid with a lot of talent, but he has missed time each of the past two seasons since the Twins drafted him. Sanudo signed with the Twins in 2011 and in 20.2 innings in the GCL, he walked seven and struck out 22. He just turned 20. Markus Solbach signed about this time last year from Germany, and he went 3-3 with a 1.91 ERA in 28.1 innings in the GCL. He also pitched well in the World Cup.
     
    GCL Twins
     
    Josh Burris (RHP), Josue Montanez (LHP), Gerardo Ramirez (RHP)
     
    The Twins signed Ramirez last year out of Mexico and threw 17.1 innings in the GCL. He just turned 18. Montanez just turned 20 years old. He signed with the Twins last year as their 15th round pick a year after being taken in the 25th round in 2010 by the Padres. His first outing didn’t go well, and then he was really good his next seven outings. Josh Burris signed very late with the Twins last year out of LSU-Eunice. Last year, he played some 2B and some in the outfield. He hit .273 with a triple and a homer and stole 13 bases. He also was a reliever who walked too many. However, he hits 94 mph on the radar gun and is best known for his great 12-6 curveball.
     
    TOP THREE (OR SO…) PROSPECTS

    Corey Williams, 2.) Matt Hauser, 3.) Lester Oliveros, 4.) Deolis Guerra, 5.) Carlos Gutierrez, 6.) Luis Nunez, 7.) Tyler Robertson, 8.) Dakota Watts, 9.) Bruce Pugh 10.) Steven Evans

    SUMMARY
     
    The Twins bullpen was really bad last year. I don’t think there is any way around that. Glen Perkins stepped up, and once he was called up, Anthony Swarzak pitched well. If the Twins have any hope at being successful in 2012, they are going to need a few more guys to really step up. Capps is going to have to be healthy and pitch well. Zumaya may have to be healthy and successful. Duensing will have to fill the role of lefty-reliever. They brought in a bunch of minor league veterans, and it would be great if one or two of them would step up and contribute when called upon. There are several Twins minor leaguers who deserve an opportunity to step up, guys like Waldrop, Gutierrez, DeVries and even Anthony Slama. The Twins have made an effort to bring in some strong arms, and in doing so have found guys who also walk a bunch. In recent drafts, the Twins have also added some power arms to mixed results. Guys like Matt Hauser and Tony Davis could move up. 2011 draft picks Corey Williams, Matt Summers, Madison Boer, Trent Higginbotham and Josh Burris throw hard. Oh, and remember a couple of years ago when the Twins had something like three or four left-handed relievers in their entire farm system? Now, it appears that each team may have three or four lefties! There is definitely some talent in the bullpen, some very strong arms. Of course, we also have to remember that many starting pitchers who have decent stuff and aren’t working out as starters could be moved to the bullpen as well.
     
    If you have any further questions, please feel free to e-mail me at sethspeaksnet@hotmail.com or leave your thoughts in the Comments Section!
  23. Seth Stohs

    Prediction Time!

    By Seth Stohs,

    This is the hardest time of the year to be a baseball fan. At least it is for me. I actually really enjoy the offseason. I love hearing rumors, and trying to think about what the Twins could do, and what they will do. Who will they sign? Will there be a trade? From the end of the World Series until about the middle of January, it is fun. Then there is the Twins Winter Caravan which is a great time, followed by the weekend of Twins Fest. In a little over a week, one of the great phrases will be uttered, "Pitchers and Catchers Report!" And, I'm of the belief that Opening Day should be a national holiday! And, then there is the 162 game season. Obviously it's much more fun when your team is winning, but that long journey from April to October is what it's all about.
     
    However, there are those pesky three weeks between Twins Fest and the beginning of spring training. Generally, there won't be any more transactions. The Super Bowl is done, and all we can do is wait. Once Spring Training starts, there will be plenty of storylines to follow!
     
    So, on days like today, the best idea for a topic to discuss is: Predictions.
    Predictions are always fun. We can voice our opinions and even if they seem funny now, after the long season, it's possible to be right. We probably won't look back at them, but we can.
     
    So today, get your votes in for the following 2012 Twins awards:
     
    1.) Twins Hitter of the Year 2012
    2.) Twins Pitcher of the Year 2012
    3.) Breakout/Surprise Offensive Player of the Year for the Twins 2012 (not necessarily the best hitter, but a guy who far exceeded expectations) -
    4.) Breakout/Surprise Pitcher of the Year for the Twins 2012 (may not be the best pitcher, but really stepped up)
    5.) Twins Rookie of the Year 2012
    6.) Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year 2012
    7.) Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year 2012
     
    Let's stop with that for today. We can make more predictions as the season approaches. My votes would be:
     
    1.) Joe Mauer - One injury-plagued season should not deter people from remembering how good he is!
    2.) Francisco Liriano - It's a contract year for him. If he wants to make any money, he better step up!
    3.) Ben Revere - He made a lot happen last year in the field and on the bases, and he didn't even hit well. Watch him actually get on base in 2012 and see what happens! Should be fun!
    4.) Matt Capps - If he's healthy, he is pretty good. Right now, people are very down on him, but he's solid when healthy.
    5.) Liam Hendriks - I believe that if any of the starters get hurt in June or early July, Hendriks will be the guy to step in. Parmelee could be the guy if Morneau can't play.
    6.) Oswaldo Arcia - Should be back completely at 100% Needs to cut down strikeout rate, but hits and hits for power to all fields.
    7.) Alex Wimmers - many thought he would be last year, but it was a crazy season for the right-hander. He could jump 2-3 levels in 2012... we hope!
     
    Get your predictions in today!
  24. Seth Stohs
    Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2012 – Now Available as an e-book for $6.99 by clicking here. You can, of course, still get the print version for $13.99 by clicking here.
    Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve pointed out the organizational depth charts for the Twins hitters. We’ve looked at catchers, 3B, 1B, Middle Infielders and Outfielders. Today, I’ll take a look at the starting pitchers. Now, especially as I move to the lower levels, I won’t pretend to know which players will move to the bullpen. Often, due to innings limits, some ‘starters’ will begin the season in the bullpen. Others will begin the season as starters and get moved to the bullpen later due to innings. Frankly, most of the pitchers in the lowest levels have been starters their whole lives and some will be given at least some opportunity. As we saw with Carlos Gutierrez, even guys destined for the bullpen can be given an opportunity to start to work on pitches and gain arm strength.
     
    That’s OK, though, because the biggest purpose of this was to provide the organization’s depth. I need to reiterate that these are just my thoughts. I have no insider information to know where players will be playing for certain in 2012. Obviously after spring training, some of these players will be let go. There will be Disabled List players, extended spring training and more.
     
    Minnesota Twins
     
    Carl Pavano (RHP), Francisco Liriano (LHP), Scott Baker (RHP), Jason Marquis (RHP), Nick Blackburn (RHP)
     
    Gardy has announced Pavano as his Opening Day starter, an obvious choice based on last season. He’s been solid in his 2 ½ seasons with the Twins, most important he has provided a ton of innings despite an alarmingly low strikeout rate. There’s no question that Francisco Liriano has the best stuff of anyone on the staff, but if he can’t find control of his fastball, it will be another frustrating season. It is a contract season for Liriano, so the goal has to be for him to have a strong season. In 2011, Scott Baker was easily the Twins top starting pitcher. He was pitching the best he had in his career, until elbow problems curtailed his season. Nick Blackburn averaged 200 innings pitched his first two seasons while posting solid ERAs. He’s been pretty bad ever since getting the long-term contract. Unfortunately, the contract has given him many opportunities and likely will continue to do so. He misses very few bats, so we can just hope that a lot of baseballs get hit right at a defender. Many Twins fans are down on the Jason Marquis signing, and although I’m not a bit fan of the contract, he has actually had a pretty solid big league career.
     
    Rochester Red Wings
     
    Liam Hendriks (RHP), Scott Diamond (LHP), Aaron Thompson (LHP), Jeff Manship (RHP), Deinys Suarez (RHP)
     
    We saw Hendriks and Diamond late in the 2011 season. Hendriks was the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year and likely needs another half-season. Diamond had his moments, but overall 2011 was the first year in his career that he really struggled. He says he has made some adjustments, so we’ll see how it goes. Manship came up with the Twins and his first major league victory came on the final weekend of the 2009 season, when the Twins needed to sweep the Royals. He was supposed to be in the Twins bullpen last season, but he was hurt the entire season. He likely will pitch in the Twins bullpen, but they may have him start in Rochester first. Aaron Thompson is intriguing, at least. He will turn 25 years old later this month. He debuted with the Pirates last season, but in 7.2 innings, he gave up 13 hits, walked six and struck out just one. He has just six AAA games under his belt, and his AA career numbers are 15-37 with a 5.03 ERA in 96 games (80 starts). Deinys Suarez signed with the Twins last spring. The Cuban defector split time between New Britain and Rochester, not pitching particularly well either place.
     
    New Britain Rock Cats
     
    David Bromberg (RHP), Logan Darnell (LHP), Tom Stuifbergen (RHP), Marty Popham (RHP), Dan Osterbrock (LHP), Bobby Lanigan (RHP)
     
    Bromberg’s 2011 season was unfortunately a lost season. He began the season in Twins spring training, but he went back to New Britain, had a line drive break his arm, spent a lot of time rehabbing, came back too quickly, shut it down, worked hard and then found out the Twins had removed him from the 40 man roster. However, he will be just 24 years old throughout the 2012 season, so don’t forget about him. Logan Darnell was a 2010 draft pick who started last year in Beloit and got all the way to New Britain. Stuifbergen had a solid season in Ft. Myers, had a terrific one-start showing in Rochester, and then was the pitcher of the year in the World Cup tournament that his Netherlands team won. He was then knighted in his homeland. Sir Tom Stuifbergen should spent this season with the Rock Cats. Dan Osterbrock missed most of last season with shoulder problems which was unfortunate because he was coming off of a very good season in 2010. Bobby Lanigan was in the Rock Cats rotation all throughout the 2011 season. Some think his stuff (specifically his slider) will play very well out of the bullpen, and we may see some of that this year too. Marty Popham was selected by the Twins in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft. He has pitched in Hi-A, AA and AAA each of the past two seasons. He should spend this season in AA.
     
    Ft. Myers Miracle
     
    BJ Hermsen (RHP), Pat Dean (LHP), Adrian Salcedo (RHP), Alex Wimmers (RHP), Manuel Soliman (RHP), Ryan O’Rourke (LHP), AJ Achter (RHP)
     
    This is certainly an intriguing group of pitching prospects. If not for Liam Hendriks’ terrific 2011 season, my starting pitcher of the year choice would have been BJ Hermsen who pitched very well in Beloit and followed it up with a solid performance in Ft. Myers (minus a rough final start). Alex Wimmers had a rough 2011 season too in Ft. Myers, but it ended with the seven inning no hitter. Assuming he has his control issues under control, he could move quickly. Adrian Salcedo has long been a top ten Twins prospect, and he’ll move up to the Miracle. Manuel Soliman was the innings-eater for the Snappers last year despite only having pitched now for three years. He is an intriguing prospect, but for him to remain a starter, he will need to improve his secondary pitches. Pat Dean is definitely a solid prospect but like so many others, he missed a lot of time with injury in 2011. His season started about six weeks late, but he still pitched for three teams (including a late-season spot start in New Britain). Ryan O’Rourke is a tough, competitive left-hander with a nasty slider. When I saw him pitch in Beloit last summer, my comment was that I didn’t think big league left-handed hitters could hit that slider. He was successful as a starter, but he could also become a very good relief pitcher, so it will be interesting to see how his career progresses. The game I saw AJ Achter start last year, he was tremendous. He touches 90-91 with the fastball, but he has a terrific changeup and a curveball that had good bite.
     
    Beloit Snappers
     
    Tim Shibuya (RHP), Madison Boer (RHP), Matt Summers (LHP), Matt Bashore (LHP), Tim Atherton (RHP), Matt Tomshaw (LHP), Derek Christensen (RHP)
     
    Tim Shibuya was the Appy League Pitcher of the Year and threw seven innings of a no-hitter for the E-Twins. A smart pitcher with a full mix of pitches, he should adapt well to the Midwest League. Madison Boer and Matt Summers both began their pro careers in the E-Town bullpen. Each unsurprisingly dominated. Boer struggled upon his promotion to Beloit. It is likely the Twins will have each start. I believe Boer will move to the bullpen, but I think Summers can stick as a starter. Matt Bashore was a first-round pick in 2009 and has pitched very little since. However, reports indicate that in Instructs last fall, he was looking really good and throwing as high as 93 mph again. He could be one to watch in 2012. Matt Tomshaw was the Twins 43rd round pick just last year. Like many, he was given a shot with the Ft. Myers Miracle after a couple appearances with the GCL Twins. Like few, he was very successful for the Miracle. My guess, however, is that he will step back to Beloit and start. Derek Christensen had a terrific season as a starter with the E-Twins. The side-winder may eventually move to the bullpen but his combination of deception, fastball and slider make him a very intriguing prospect. Tim Atherton was with the Twins organization a few years ago as an infielder. The team let him go, but he came back in 2011 as a pitcher, and he pitched very well. He has all the pitches, but all will need to further develop.
     
    Elizabethton Twins
     
    Tyler Jones (RHP), Corey Kimes (LHP), Brett Lee (LHP), Chris Mazza (RHP), Angel Mata (RHP), Hung-yi Chen (RHP)
     
    There are plenty of pitchers from the 2011 draft and from last year’s GCL team that will not be heading to Beloit to start the season. Tyler Jones was the 11th round pick a year ago out of LSU. He’s got great upside, throws hard, good breaking pitches. Kimes is a four year college guy who should probably be up in Beloit due to age, but he got hurt last year shortly after signing. Brett Lee and Chris Mazza both signed very near the deadline and didn’t pitch in 2011. Angel Mata and Hung-yi Chen were the two most intriguing pitching prospects from last year’s GCL team. Both have good stuff and are young.
     
    GCL Twins
     
    Hudson Boyd (RHP), Trent Higginbotham (RHP), Kuo-hua Lo (RHP)
     
    Boyd and Higginbotham are two very high ceiling high school picks from last year. The Twins had to go over-slot to sign their second supplemental first round pick from Ft. Myers. He touched 96-97 at times last year. Higginbotham was a late-round pick but the Twins went way over slot to sign him as well. He touches 94-95, and some believe he can be a top of the rotation starter or a dominant closer. Time will tell for both of them. Lo signed last year from Taiwan, and he’s fairly advanced for his very young age. He also has hit 94 mph on a radar gun. He debuted in Instructional League last year, and will likely be with the GCL Twins in 2012.
     
    TOP THREE (OR SO…) PROSPECTS
     

    Liam Hendriks, 2.) Kyle Gibson, 3.) Alex Wimmers, 4.) Adrian Salcedo, 5.) Tom Stuifbergen, 6.) Manuel Soliman, 7.) Hudson Boyd, 8.) BJ Hermsen, 9.) Pat Dean, 10.) Matt Summers

    SUMMARY
     
    The Twins starting pitching was really bad last year. That was a combination of struggles, injury and poor defense. For the Twins to be successful, Carl Pavano needs to throw 220 innings with a league-average ERA and WHIP. Francisco Liriano will have to pull his regain control of his fastball and show a little bit of self-confidence. Scott Baker needs to pitch like he did the six weeks before he got hurt. All three need to stay healthy. I personally think Jason Marquis will be just fine. He’s not going to post a sub-3 or sub-4 ERA, but I think he can do what Pavano did in 2011. Blackburn needs to pitch like he did his first two seasons… or so badly that Liam Hendriks gets called up. Frankly, there’s not much else waiting in the wings, ready to contribute right away as a starter. Manship can be solid, but I think the team has moved him to the bullpen in their minds. Diamond will have had to improved quite a bit to say he’s ready (which is possible).
     
    That doesn’t mean the cupboard is bare though. There are some solid pitching prospects throughout the minors. Kyle Gibson should be back in 2013 (if not late in 2012). Alex Wimmers could move very quickly as well. There are several pitchers that have the potential to be a decent #3 pitcher, if all goes well on the way up. The Twins have been successful with “Twins-like” pitchers. Guys like Hermsen, Salcedo, Stuifbergen and Shibuya fit that mold. The Twins have added some power arms in the last draft or two, especially in 2011’s draft with Boyd, Higginbotham, Jones, Boer, Summers, Corey Williams and others. It will be interesting to see how they develop.
     
    If you have any further questions, please feel free to e-mail me at sethspeaksnet@hotmail.com or leave your thoughts in the Comments Section!
  25. Seth Stohs

    The Twins Bullpen

    By Seth Stohs,

    The Twins have about 30 pitchers coming to spring training this year. Some Twins fans are upset that the Twins haven't signed the likes of Dan Wheeler or Brad Lidge when they signed for low-price deals. There are still some bullpen arms available (Coffey, Wuertz ,etc.), but the question is Would you rather sign one of those guys, or give opportunities to the guys they already have? Is it possible that the Twins scouting department has determined that Todd Coffey will not be able to get hitters out as well as Alex Burnett or Lester Oliveros, Jeff Manship or Jason Bulger? if that's the case, then there is no reason to bring additional pitchers in. What say you?
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