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Blog Entries posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Over at Beyond The Boxscore, Chris St John revealed a system for predicting major league success of minor leaguers based on prospect age and level. The system is called JAVIER (named after Cubs SS prospect Javier Baez), and you can read about it here. The system predicts whether a prospect will bust, have an average career, or be a productive player (defined as having at least 1000 MLB PAs and producing at least 0.0275 VORP per PA - read about VORP here), based on a dataset of 41,238 player-seasons between the years 1978 and 2013.
     
    In part 2 of St John's reveal, he gives us is a tool where you can input a prospect's age, level, zBB, zK, and zISO values to see how they compare, historically, against all prospects with similar plate discipline and power at a given age/level.
     
    So I inputed the values of the top Twins position prospects in the 2013 minor league season (prospects taken from Seth Stoh's top 50 list ). Where prospects split time between two leagues, I used the values from the league where he logged the most PAs. I inputed the player's age as listed on baseball-reference's Minor's page as the minimum of the age range, and their age + 1 as the maximum. I inputed zBB, zK, and zISO values that were +/- one standard deviation. The results are below.
    [TABLE=width: 500]


    [TABLE=width: 396]

    Player
    Productive
    Average
    Bust
    Total
    Avg MLB PA
    Avg MLB VORP


    Aaron Hicks[TD=align: right]17
    [TD=align: right]31[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]98[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]146[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1137[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]44[/TD]



    Adam Brett Walker[TD=align: right]4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]39[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]46[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]624[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]31[/TD]



    Brian Navarreto[TD=align: right]16[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]12[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]148[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]176[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]571[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]52[/TD]



    Byron Buxton[TD=align: right]10[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]11[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]44[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]65[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1428[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]80[/TD]



    Dalton Hicks[TD=align: right]6[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]5[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]210[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]221[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]166[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]16[/TD]



    Danny Ortiz[TD=align: right]24[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]64[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]447[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]535[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]558[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]21[/TD]



    Danny Santana[TD=align: right]17[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]57[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]328[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]402[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]636[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]17[/TD]



    Eddie Rosario[TD=align: right]41[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]85[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]278[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]404[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1222[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]38[/TD]



    JD Williams[TD=align: right]11[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]7[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]160[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]178[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]433[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]38[/TD]



    Jorge Polanco[TD=align: right]43[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]57[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]152[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]252[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1620[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]77[/TD]



    Josmil Pinto[TD=align: right]13[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]17[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]203[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]233[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]442[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]21[/TD]



    Kennys Vargas[TD=align: right]16[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]16[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]248[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]280[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]414[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]30[/TD]



    Levi Michael[TD=align: right]13[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]18[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]268[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]299[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]297[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]23[/TD]



    Max Kepler[TD=align: right]21[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]21[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]118[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]160[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1065[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]63[/TD]



    Miguel Sano*[TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4213[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]243[/TD]



    Mike Kvasnicka[TD=align: right]2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]230[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]233[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]67[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]11[/TD]



    Niko Goodrum[TD=align: right]10[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]10[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]207[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]227[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]309[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]22[/TD]



    Stuart Turner[TD=align: right]4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]8[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]306[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]318[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]154[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]33[/TD]



    Travis Harrison[TD=align: right]12[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]69[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]87[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]876[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]54[/TD]



    Zach Larson[TD=align: right]13[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]10[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]175[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]198[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]459[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]49[/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]

    [/TD]








    [/TABLE]
     
    Sano stands out right away - he kinda breaks the projection. Only two batters in St John's dataset fall within a standard deviation of Sano's plate discpipline and power profile as a 20 year old in AA. They are Jose Canseco and Randy Johnson (not that Randy Johnson). So his JAVIER projection is pretty useless due to SSS.
     
    We can re-rank the Twins top position prospects in a number of ways. Here they are in order of Productive%:
    [TABLE=width: 500]


    [TABLE=width: 340]


    Player
    Productive
    Total
    Productive %

    [TD=align: right]1

    Jorge Polanco[TD=align: right]43
    [TD=align: right]252[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]17.06%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]2[/TD]

    Byron Buxton[TD=align: right]10[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]65[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]15.38%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]3[/TD]

    Travis Harrison[TD=align: right]12[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]87[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]13.79%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]4[/TD]

    Max Kepler[TD=align: right]21[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]160[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]13.13%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]5[/TD]

    Aaron Hicks[TD=align: right]17[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]146[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]11.64%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]6[/TD]

    Eddie Rosario[TD=align: right]41[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]404[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]10.15%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]7[/TD]

    Brian Navarreto[TD=align: right]16[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]176[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9.09%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]8[/TD]

    Adam Brett Walker[TD=align: right]4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]46[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]8.70%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]9[/TD]

    Zach Larson[TD=align: right]13[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]198[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6.57%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]10[/TD]

    JD Williams[TD=align: right]11[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]178[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6.18%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]11[/TD]

    Kennys Vargas[TD=align: right]16[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]280[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]5.71%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]12[/TD]

    Josmil Pinto[TD=align: right]13[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]233[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]5.58%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]13[/TD]

    Danny Ortiz[TD=align: right]24[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]535[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.49%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]14[/TD]

    Niko Goodrum[TD=align: right]10[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]227[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.41%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]15[/TD]

    Levi Michael[TD=align: right]13[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]299[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.35%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]16[/TD]

    Danny Santana[TD=align: right]17[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]402[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.23%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]17[/TD]

    Dalton Hicks[TD=align: right]6[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]221[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2.71%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]18[/TD]

    Stuart Turner[TD=align: right]4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]318[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1.26%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]19[/TD]

    Mike Kvasnicka[TD=align: right]2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]233[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.86%[/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]

    [/TD]








    [/TABLE]
     
    Ranked in order of highest average VORP at the MLB level, the top 19 are:
    [TABLE=width: 500]


    [TABLE=width: 293]


    Player
    Avg MLB PA
    Avg MLB VORP

    [TD=align: right]1

    Byron Buxton[TD=align: right]1428
    [TD=align: right]80[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]2[/TD]

    Jorge Polanco[TD=align: right]1620[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]77[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]3[/TD]

    Max Kepler[TD=align: right]1065[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]63[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]4[/TD]

    Travis Harrison[TD=align: right]875.7[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]53.9[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]5[/TD]

    Brian Navarreto[TD=align: right]570.9[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]51.9[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]6[/TD]

    Zach Larson[TD=align: right]458.8[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]49.1[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]7[/TD]

    Aaron Hicks[TD=align: right]1137[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]44[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]8[/TD]

    JD Williams[TD=align: right]433.1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]38.3[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]9[/TD]

    Eddie Rosario[TD=align: right]1222[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]38[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]10[/TD]

    Stuart Turner[TD=align: right]153.8[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]33.1[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]11[/TD]

    Adam Brett Walker[TD=align: right]624.3[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]30.5[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]12[/TD]

    Kennys Vargas[TD=align: right]414.4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]30.3[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]13[/TD]

    Levi Michael[TD=align: right]297.4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]23.2[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]14[/TD]

    Niko Goodrum[TD=align: right]308.5[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]22[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]15[/TD]

    Josmil Pinto[TD=align: right]442.4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]21.4[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]16[/TD]

    Danny Ortiz[TD=align: right]558.1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]21.2[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]17[/TD]

    Danny Santana[TD=align: right]635.6[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]16.9[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]18[/TD]

    Dalton Hicks[TD=align: right]166[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]16.2[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]19[/TD]

    Mike Kvasnicka[TD=align: right]66.55[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]10.92[/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]

    [/TD]








    [/TABLE]
     
    Ranked in order of lease likely to bust, the top 19 are:
    [TABLE=width: 500]


    [TABLE=width: 345]


    Player
    Bust
    Total
    Bust%

    [TD=align: right]1

    Jorge Polanco[TD=align: right]152
    [TD=align: right]252[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]60.32%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]2[/TD]

    Aaron Hicks[TD=align: right]98[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]146[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]67.12%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]3[/TD]

    Byron Buxton[TD=align: right]44[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]65[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]67.69%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]4[/TD]

    Eddie Rosario[TD=align: right]278[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]404[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]68.81%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]5[/TD]

    Max Kepler[TD=align: right]118[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]160[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]73.75%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]6[/TD]

    Travis Harrison[TD=align: right]69[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]87[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]79.31%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]7[/TD]

    Danny Santana[TD=align: right]328[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]402[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]81.59%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]8[/TD]

    Danny Ortiz[TD=align: right]447[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]535[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]83.55%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]9[/TD]

    Brian Navarreto[TD=align: right]148[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]176[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]84.09%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]10[/TD]

    Adam Brett Walker[TD=align: right]39[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]46[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]84.78%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]11[/TD]

    Josmil Pinto[TD=align: right]203[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]233[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]87.12%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]12[/TD]

    Zach Larson[TD=align: right]175[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]198[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]88.38%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]13[/TD]

    Kennys Vargas[TD=align: right]248[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]280[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]88.57%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]14[/TD]

    Levi Michael[TD=align: right]268[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]299[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]89.63%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]15[/TD]

    JD Williams[TD=align: right]160[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]178[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]89.89%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]16[/TD]

    Niko Goodrum[TD=align: right]207[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]227[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]91.19%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]17[/TD]

    Dalton Hicks[TD=align: right]210[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]221[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]95.02%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]18[/TD]

    Stuart Turner[TD=align: right]306[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]318[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]96.23%[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]19[/TD]

    Mike Kvasnicka[TD=align: right]230[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]233[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]98.71%[/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]

    [/TD]






    [TD]

    [/TABLE]
    You get the idea.
     
    In part 3 you can compare players by minor league careers (rather than single seasons). A blog for another day maybe.
  2. Willihammer
    Resuming where we left off, we're now going to compare the Twins' successes in the 6 methods of talent acquisition versus the rest of the American League.
     
    Part 1: here
    Part 2: here
    Data: here
     
    TWINS VS AMERICAN LEAGUE
     
    1. Amateur Draft
     
    We already know the Twins have acquired the most positional talent and the 2nd most pitching talent from the Amateur draft, as measured by WAR. But roster space is limited. How does the average Amateur Draftee stack up against the rest of the AL?
     
    http://i.imgur.com/qLqHjp0.png
     
    The big outlier here is the Red Sox, whose draftees have been a half-win better than average. The rest of the AL is grouped fairly closely, with the Twins very much in the middle. Their positional draftees have been .02 WAR worse than average, while their pitchers have been .09 WAR better. Overall, they're slightly (.07 WAR) better than average at drafting amateur talent under Terry Ryan.
     
     
     
    2. Amateur Free Agency
     
    Overall, the average Amateur Drafted-pitcher is worth .78 WAR. The average Amateur Free Agent pitcher? .80 WAR. For position players - 1.25 WAR for the average Draftee, and 1.10 for the average Amateur FA. However the distribution of Amateur FA talent has been very uneven.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/i8CHiMM.png
     
    The Twins are 2nd to last in average WAR, but its not really for a lack of trying. For example, the Twins and White Sox have both signed 16 Amateur FAs. The Twins have gotten just 11 WARs to the White Sox's 61.2. What gives?
     
    http://i.imgur.com/CsRPX8u.png
     
    Couple of things. 1. The Twins didn't dip their toes in the Amateur FA water till 2000 when they acquired Luis Rivas - 1 year after the Sox acquired Carlos Lee, and 3 years after they got Magglio Ordonez. Culprit no. 1 is late timing. Culprit 2, it appears, is the Twins' reluctance to hand out signing bonuses and multiyear contracts, combined possibly with poor scouting. After the Twins became active in Amateur Free Agency, talents like Alexei Ramirez, Fernando Rodney, Joaquin Benoit, Felix Hernandez, Roberto Hernandez, Rafael Soriano, Omar Infante, Victor Martinez, managed to fall to the competition. Some signed contracts with half-million or greater bonuses, others signed for much less. In general, the pricier contracts went to better players.
     
     
    3. Rule 5 Draft
     
    The results of the Rule 5 Draft are curious. They ought to be skewed by a self-selecting sample. Players who are able to stick on their team's 40 man roster for an entire year should be pretty good right? Wrong. Only 3 of the 67 players who "stuck" on the drafting team's rosters have posted cumulative WARs of 5 or more - a rate of 4.4%. A worse rate than the Amateur Draft (16%), Trades (15%), Amateur Free Agency (14%), and Free Agency (9.1%). Only Waiver pickups produce 5+ WARs at a worse rate (3.4%).
     
     
    4. Trades
     
    Total player-seasons from trades outnumber all other avanues of talent acquisition except the Draft (3094 to 3274). Unlike the Draft, however, there is not a lot of variance in the output from tradees:
     
    http://i.imgur.com/6mFJJKG.png
     
    The Twins average exactly 1 WAR per season from players returned in trade. This puts them 0.07 WAR above average in the AL, boosted again by the acquisition of Johan Santana. In fact, only 3 trades have worked out better - Pedro Martinez for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas in 1997 in a deal between the Expos and Red Sox; ARod to the Yankees for Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias; and Miguel Cabrera (and Dontrelle Willis) from the Marlins to the Tigers in exchange for Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo in 2007.
     
     
    5. Waivers
     
    The Twins have relied on Waiviers for 35 player-seasons since 1995, 3rd most in the AL. They have not, however, gotten as much production from those players as other teams.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/btG8Vuw.png
     
    The White Sox have only taken 10 waiver pickups since 1995, but gotten some decent production out of 4 of them - De Aza (4.5 WAR), Rios (6.1), Bobby Jenks (8.7) and Phil Humber (2.3). For the rest of the AL, waivers are the least reliable method for acquiring talent, and the Twins are no exception. Of the 20 waiver claims the Twins have made since 1995, 10 have produced negative WAR. At 7.5 WAR, Matt Guerrier is by far the best of the 20 waiver pickups since 1995.
     
     
    6. Free Agency
     
    The Twins have signed 104 Free Agents since 1995. On average, the FA player-season has been worth just .42 WAR, last among AL teams (excluding the Astros).
     
    http://i.imgur.com/BVJ7w3K.png
     
    As with Amateur Free Agency, the production from Free Agents has mirrored prices.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/ChaTiAd.png
     
    The Yankees have proven that with enough money, you can build a roster from free agency. Since 1995, their FAs have produced at a clip of 1.1 WAR player season - identical to the Twins average Amateur Draftee - and it only cost them $981 million to get it.
     
    On the other hand, the Red Sox, Angels, Athletics, Rangers, and White Sox have gotten tremendous value through the Draft and Amateur Free Agency whereas the Twins have gotten average talent out of the Draft and almost no talent out of Amateur Free Agency.
     
    What are Red Sox scouts doing that the Twins' aren't? Does Terry Ryan know? Is he willing to change? Is he the guy to diversify and uncover new pockets of talent before others get to them, or will he keep on the boom and bust cycle with each crop of Amateur Draftees?
  3. Willihammer
    Since 2006, 851 players have logged at least 200 PAs in the Florida State League (High A). This is a sample of players that includes guys like Giancarlo Stanton (age 19), Jay Bruce (20), JP Arencibia (22), Allen Craig (22), and Domonic Brown (21).
     
    Another 746 have logged at least 200 PAs in the Eastern League (AA) since 2006. Players include Brandon Belt (22), Matt Wieters (22), Pedro Alvarez (22), Ike Davis (22), Kevin Kouzmanoff (24), Josh Reddick (22), Carlos Santana (23), Brennan Boesch (24), and Adam Lind (22).
     
    Miguel Sano has logged 200 PAs in both leagues. He's also put up the single highest ISO since fangraphs started tracking these statistics in 2006. In both leagues. Here's a quick look at the top 50 performances, by ISO:
     
    http://i.imgur.com/n2om1ZW.png?1
     
    5 players posted .250 or better ISO seasons at age 20 or younger in the Florida State League. Of these, only Giancarlo Stanton went on to post a better ISO in AA as a 20 year old in the Southern League (although Javier Baez is holding a .352 ISO through 194 PAs, also in the Southern league).
     
    As stated above the sample includes all players with a minimum of 200 PAs in either league. If a player hit a lot of gap triples and bloop doubles, ISO could be measuring speed more than power (ISO is Slg%-Avg, or total bases, not including 1st base, divided by ABs). In order to eliminate that possibility, we can just look at home run rate, expressed as AB/HR.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/pBT7I0K.png?1
     
    Sano ranks 2nd and 4th in home run rates (tops for the EL) since 2006. If you have been following Sano's year, this shouldn't be a surprise - he has 31 bombs after all.
     
    So there you have it. Sano's 2013 ranks among the top power seasons in both the Eastern League and the Florida State League dating back to 2006, in just about any way you care to measure power. And he's done it at a younger age than anyone except Giancarlo Stanton.
  4. Willihammer
    In Part 1, we looked at the Twins history of acquiring positional talent via the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, the Rule 5 Draft, Trades, Waivers, and Free Agency, during the Terry Ryan era (1995-2013). Here we will do the same for pitchers.
     
    PITCHERS
     
    1. Amateur Draft
     
    Since 1995, the Twins trail only the Toronto Blue Jays in their reliance on the Amateur Draft for pitching talent, getting 136 player-seasons from 39 pitchers, good for 120 WAR. Notably, Brad Radke owns a full third (45.5 WAR) of that total. Overall, the average Twins Amateur Draftee has pitched to a .88 WAR season. But take Radke out of the equation, and the average drops to .60 WAR.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/MG4siqR.png
     
     
     
    2. Amateur Free Agency
     
    The Twins have given 24 player-seasons to Amateur FA pitchers since 1995. Juan Rincon and Jose Mijares share the top 7 highest WAR seasons. Others in this category include Liam Hendriks, Grant Balfour, Michael Nakamura, Rob Delaney, and Cole DeVries. Together they average a 0.29 WAR season.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/73gC0Tm.png
     
     
    3. Rule 5 Draft
     
    The five Rule 5 Twins player-seasons since 1995 are owned by Scott Diamond (3), Ryan Pressly (1) and Travis Baptist (1). Together they have pitched 432.1 innings for a WAR of 1.9.
     
     
    http://i.imgur.com/9ni3gmd.png
     
     
    4. Trades
     
    Trades account for 90 (pitcher) player-seasons since 1995. Of all other AL teams to have existed for the period 1995-2013, only the Angels have been less-reliant on trades to fill their pitching staffs. But, the Twins own the best WAR-average at 1.36, boosted by the acquisitions of Johan Santana (35.4 WAR over 8 seasons), Eric Milton (14.7/6), Joe Nathan (18.3/7), Joe Mays (10.6/6), Francisco Liriano (9.9/6).
     
    http://i.imgur.com/uVp33wI.png
     
     
    5. Waivers
     
    Jeremy Guthrie owns the distinction of most productive pitcher acquired by Waivers since 1995. He was worth 16.5 WARs for the Orioles from 2007-2011. The next closest is Darren O'Day at under 10 WAR. For the Twins, 13 waiver-wire pitchers have been worth 7.6 WAR over 25 player-seasons. Matt Guerrier (7.5 WAR) has been the most productive pickup, with the other 12 players producing just 0.1 WAR.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/2CN4lbQ.png
     
     
    6. Free Agency
     
    Bob Tewksbury remains the best free agent pickup for the Twins. He produced 6.5 WAR at a price of 3.75 million over the 1997-1998 seasons. Overall, Twins FA pitchers average .47 WAR per season, good for 8th in the AL
     
    http://i.imgur.com/VmwNq1Y.png
     
     
     
    So, in order of average WAR, the Twins most successful means of acquiring pitching talent since 1995 are:
     
    1. Trades (1.36)
    2. The Amateur Draft (.88)
    3. Free Agency (.47)
    4. The Rule 5 Draft (.38)
    5. Waivers (.30)
    6. Amateur Free Agency (.29)
  5. Willihammer
    Last Friday Terry Ryan spoke to Paul Allen about Free Agency:
     
     
    Free Agency is only one of the 6 most common methods of acquiring talent. The others are the Amateur Draft, Amateur Free Agency, Rule 5 Draft, Trades, and Waivers. Using Baseball-references Player registry data, I will examine the Twins' successes at acquiring positional talent via these 6 methods during the period 1995-2013 - the Terry Ryan era. (data here)
    POSITION PLAYERS
     
     

    The Amateur Draft

    Since 1995, the Twins have 194 player-seasons from players acquired via the Draft, most of any AL team. They have paid these players a combined $389,248,998, 2nd only to the Yankees. These players have put up an average of 1.26 WAR, good for 6th in the AL.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/gKvQamF.png
     
     
     
    2. Amateur Free Agency
     
    16 player-seasons have been worth an average of just .26 WAR. Bobby Kielty, Luis Rodriguez, and Luis Rivas own most of those seasons. Josmil Pinto and Oswaldo Arcia own 1 a piece.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/BPAcyJd.png
     
     
     
    3. Rule 5 Draft
     
    Brian Buscher and Jason Pridie are the two Rule 5 position players to stick on the 40 man roster during Ryan's and Smith's tenures. Combined, they provided 0.3 WAR over 5 player-seasons at a cost of just under 2 million. The most active Rule 5 team during this time was the Baltimore Orioles, who kept Jay Gibbons on as DH/outfielder for the 2001-2007 seasons.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/pUgIpiT.png
     
     
     
    4. Trades
    The Twins have given 70 player-seasons to players acquired by trade since 1995. Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford, and Christian Guzman accumulated 9.1, 8.4, and 7.4 WARs over 15 player seasons. On the other end, Ron Coomer, David Ortiz, and Alexi Casilla accumulated between 2 and 4 WARs over 6+ seasons each. Overall, the average player-season was worth .54 WAR, last among AL teams (excluding Houston and Milwaukee.)
     
    http://i.imgur.com/0M6YzGI.png
     
     
     
     
    5. Waivers
    The Twins have played 7 Waiver claims in positions 2-9 since 1995. They are (WAR in Parenthesis): Augie Ojeda (1.2), Casey Blake (-0.2), Clete Thomas (0.2), Corky Miller (-0.2), Darin Mastroianni (0.3), Erik Komatsu (-0.2), and Pedro Florimon (3.8). The average waiver claim-season has been worth 0.42 WAR, boosted largely by Florimon's 2013 season which has so far been worth 2.2 WAR.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/YQ4cjv5.png
     
     
     
    6. Free Agency
    Since 1995, the Twins have 84 Free Agent position player-seasons. WAR likes Paul Molitor (5.2), Josh Willingham (3.9) and Jamey Carroll the most (3.5). On the other end are Rondell White (-1.5), Butch Huskey (-1.0), and Kevin Maas (-0.8). Overall, the Twins average a 0.38 WAR season from Free Agent position players. This is the worst average in the AL (excluding Houston and Milwaukee). Interestingly, they also pay their Free Agents the least of any AL team.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/MxJJnAt.png
     
    So, in order of average WAR, the Twins' most successful means of positional talent acquisition under Terry Ryan (and 4 seasons of Bill Smith):
     
    1. Amateur Draft (1.26 WAR)
    2. Trades (0.54)
    3. Waivers (0.42)
    4. Free Agency (0.37)
    5. Amateur Free Agency (0.26)
    6. Rule 5 Draft (0.06)
     
     
     
    *Note about the Salary figures - rather than look up days spent on the active roster for all the minimum wagers, I assumed they were paid a full season's worth. Therefore salary figures are a little inflated, specially for waivers, rule 5, and amateur draft guys.
  6. Willihammer
    As we're all aware, step 4 of the 21 Point Plan to More Twins Wins! is upon us. Step 4 of course is the first of a subseries of steps which looks at how the Twins AAAA bubble guys figure to fit into the next wave of All Star talent currently playing in Cedar Rapids and Ft Myers. Dozier, Hicks, Parmelee, Plouffe, Florimon, Gibson, Deduno, DeVries, and Hendriks. In Step 4, we isolate the position players.
     
    Smarter minds than I have calculated that the 150 PA plateau marks the point where we can say with a high degree of reliability what a guy's final scores will be at the end of the season in several metrics. Namely:

    Swing% (50 PAs)
    Contact % (100 PAs)
    K rate, LD rate, and pitches/PA

     
    Here is how our bubble guys weigh in:
     
    http://i.imgur.com/eMxs0wv.png
     
     
    So, if these figures hold reasonably stable for the remainder of 2013, do we pencil these guys in for step 21? Who gets cut?
  7. Willihammer
    Aaron Hicks has struck out 22 times in his first 17 big league games. His K-rate currently sits at 31.4%, tied for 10th worst in baseball with jay Bruce. a career 23.7% k-rate batter.
     
    According to Charlie Adams at Beyond the Boxscore (courtesy of Pizza Cutter at StatSpeak.net) k-rates stabilize after about 150 PAs. But instead of waiting 20 more games for Hicks to reach that benchmark, I'm going to instead look at contact rate and guesstimate what Hicks' true k-rate might be based off that. Because as it turns out, contact rates stabilize before k-rates - right around 70 PAs, in fact. And contact rates correlate well with strikeout rates (somewhere between -.81 and -.91).
     
    Below are the current contact rates for Twins batters:
     
    [TABLE=width: 310]


    Name
    PA
    Contact%
    SwStr%


    Chris Parmelee
    62
    79.40%
    7.80%


    Brian Dozier
    63
    86.50%
    5.50%


    Josh Willingham
    65
    74.70%
    8.80%


    Trevor Plouffe
    68
    83.20%
    6.90%


    Ryan Doumit
    68
    73.30%
    10.60%


    Aaron Hicks
    70
    73.80%
    9.30%


    Justin Morneau
    78
    83.60%
    8.20%


    Joe Mauer
    84
    81.50%
    6.50%
    [/TABLE]
     
    To get an idea of how these rates compare, I pulled the sample of qualified batters dating back to 2010 (min 1000 PAs). Next are the 10 hitters whose contact rates most closely match Hicks' current 73.8% contact rate, and their k-rates over that period:
     
    [TABLE=width: 263]


    Name
    Contact%
    K%


    Tyler Colvin
    73.20%
    25.70%


    B.J. Upton
    73.40%
    26.40%


    Alfonso Soriano
    73.50%
    23.10%


    Kelly Johnson
    73.60%
    25.20%


    Jay Bruce
    73.80%
    24.40%


    John Buck
    73.90%
    23.80%


    Sean Rodriguez
    73.90%
    22.30%


    Mark Trumbo
    74.00%
    23.90%


    Nelson Cruz
    74.20%
    20.90%


    Geovany Soto
    74.30%
    23.40%
    [/TABLE]
     
     
    Sure enough, there is our man Jay Bruce again.
     
    So, is Hicks destined to strikeout in the 23-24% range for his career? I don't think so. Certainly Austin Jackson wouldn't think so. Guys do improve, but judging Hicks' early contact rates, I feel confident that we can pencil Hicks in for a 20%+ k-rate for the rest of 2013 at least. While still pretty lousy, that would technically be an improvement over Hicks' current k-rate of 31.4%.
  8. Willihammer
    It was pretty obvious that Oswalt struggled as a starter down in Texas last year, earning him a couple different assignments to the bullpen. I went through his pitchf/x data for the season to differentiate Oswalt's effectiveness in the two roles and found some evidence that he could still be a valuable piece coming out of the pen in 2013. In a small sample, Oswalt's fastballs missed bats about twice as often when he was coming out of relief (15.93% versus 8.39%). I believe this is a good sign for Oswalt, because he's relied heavily on his fastballs for success over his career (64.2% frequency, +132.5 runs).
     
    https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5pIzP28qdp-YWc5dVZJRXVrX00
     
    http://i.imgur.com/DYFzm.png?1
     
    Would Oswalt be worth pursuing? What should the Twins be willing to pay?
  9. Willihammer
    I'm revisiting this topic after the Case for Trading Span thread discussion.
     
    I believe that Revere's extreme contact proficiency is causing him to prematurely terminate at-bats to the detriment of his OBP. Here I want to estimate what Revere's OBP would be if he never swung at another 2-0, 3-0, or 3-1 pitch again by looking at the probabilities of outcomes based on Revere's first 1068 PAs.
     
    For data, I'm using fangraphs' PITCHf/x Plate Discipline, and Baseball-Reference's Pitch Summary -- Batting pages.
     
    I will assume that pitchers throw Revere strikes at a constant rate, regardless of count. I admit that in terms of a game scenario where there' s a man, and not pitchFX calling balls and strikes, that this is a bit of a reach owing to things like the Compassionate Umpire effect, although there is a more or less equivalent counter effect in the Merciless Umpire. For my calculations, I will not account for human error in calling balls and strikes.
     
    For Revere, the rate at which pitchers throw him pitches that fall within PITCHf/x's strike zone is 53.4%. This is before Revere swings or doesn't swing. Of Pitches, inside the zone, Revere swings at 51.4%, making contact 96.7% of the time and whiffing 3.3%. Contact is defined as balls put in play or fouled off. Unfortunately, I'm unable to assign different foul ball swing%'s to balls in or out of the zone, so I will assume it is the same for both. That rate (called F/Str on baseball-reference) is 21% of all strikes seen. 64% of pitches are either a swinging or non-swinging strike. And Revere's Z-swing% is 51.4%. So of all strikes thrown to Revere, 39.3% are swung on and put into play, 10.4% are swung on and fouled off, 1.7% are swung on and missed, and the rest, 48.6%, are taken.
     
    Revere's O-Swing% (Swings at pitches out of the zone / Pitches out of the zone) is 26.2%, and his contact rate is 82.1%. so of all pitches thrown outside the zone (46.6%), 16.9% are swung on and put into play, 4.5% are fouled off, 4.0% are swung on and missed, and the rest, 74.6%, are taken.
     
    in 1068 PAs so far, Revere's seen 122 2-0 counts and swung 41 times. We can assume 5.0 of those were balls (26.2% O-swing% / ball rate of 46.6% x 41). Of the 36.0 strikes swung on, 27.3 were put in play, 7.3 were fouled off, 1.4 were whiffed.
  10. Willihammer
    Ben Revere doesn't swing and miss often. So he doesn't reach many 3 ball counts, and what follows below can be taken with heavy salt.
     
    Still, if there is meaning in his small sample of 3-ball data, then Ben Revere's high contact percentage allows for absolutist decisionmaking at the plate in order to maximize on-base percentage.
     
    Observe, Ben Revere is already a patient hitter:
     
    http://i.imgur.com/tJLMP.png
     
     
    But Revere puts balls in play at such an efficient clip, relative to the no. of swings he takes, that he doesn't see enough 3-ball counts to draw any walks.
     
    If you carry out the 62% strike % (which includes swinging strikes, but to be conservative with estimates I will use that figure), then Revere would see 84 3-0 counts per 1000 PAs (conveniently, Revere sits at 1000 PAs currently). By comparison, Span sees fourty-three 3-0 counts/1000 PAs.
     
    Again, assuming the red light stays on for 3-0 counts, that works out to 52 walks per 1000 PAs just by Revere having a red light on all 2-0 and 3-0 counts. Accounting for a full .050 points of OBP.
     
    Give him the red light on all 3-1 counts, and his OBP jumps another .022.
     
    But, how would Revere's batting average fair, when the pitcher throws a strike on 2-0 and 3-1?
     
    http://i.imgur.com/FrbfC.png
     
    Like most hitters, Revere struggles in 2 strike counts (except full count).
     
    But Revere's ability to put balls in play is so elite, that he rarely gets into such counts. In 1000 PAs, he has see just 151 counts, of 02, and 210 counts of 1-2. By comparison, Span sees 180 counts of 0-2 and 271 counts of 1-2.
     
    He just doesn't miss the ball in 0-strike and 1-strike counts, to his detriment sometimes. Thus, Revere needs to be given hard red lights in order to increase his OBP and turn him into a long term serviceable leadoff hitter.
  11. Willihammer
    Over the last three seasons, (min 450 IP), Jeremy Hellickson has accumulated 6.8 Fielding dependent wins. FDP wins are calculated based on a pitchers combined ability to limit hard contact on balls in play and strand runners ie. throw strikes from the stretch, limit the running game, etc.
     
    Hellickson's 6.8 FDP wins leads all qualified pitchers, by far. Next closest is Jared Weaver, at 5.4 FDP wins.
     
    Which brings me to Deduno, who in 10 starts has already accumulate 1.0 FDP-wins. 0.3 of which is owed to BIP-wins (ability to induce weak contact on balls in play), and 0.7 wins for stranding runners.
     
    Carry that out over 33 starts, and that is .9 wins due to Deduno's ability to induce weak contact, and 2.4 wins due to his ability to control the run game and pitch well from the stretch. An astounding 3.3 FDP per season, dwarfing Hellickson's 2.3 FDP-wins/season.
     
    Is that sustainable?
     
    It has been speculated that the key to Deduno's success, despite his walk rate, is the difficulty hitters seem to have in hitting his filthy stuff with good wood. But that appears to be a small part of it. Most of his success is in stranding runners.
     
    For comparison, the leader in LOB-wins over the last three years is Ryan Vogelson, with 2.7 LOB-wins combined (.9 / season).
     
    So I think its extremely unlikely that Deduno will continue to overcome his walk rates in the future, although I think like others that his .9 BIP-wins / season (current rate, anyway), is definitely achievable.
     
    So, add it all up, Deduno's current FIP-produced win rate (measure by WAR), is 0.7. Plus 0.9 BIP-wins, plus, say, a conservative sustainable extimate of LOB-wins at 1.0, and you have a pitcher who has a positive value of 2.6 wins total. This places him between Gavin Floyd and Matt Garza, in comparison to pitchers over the last three years, on the RA9-wins leaderboard.
     
    Not the king of FDP, but not in bad company either.
  12. Willihammer

    title

    By Willihammer,

    Earlier this month, Teflon estimated the pitching staff would improve by 73 runs, driven mostly by the Twins free agent acquisitions. These runs would push the Twins' pythagorean win total to 70. Assuming that estimate is accurate, how many more runs would the lineup would need to plate in order to push their Pythagorean record all the way to 90? The answer is 188 runs.
     
    That's a lot of runs. To see if a 188-run offensive improvement had been done recently, I pulled the Runs Scored/Run allowed values from baseball-reference for all teams dating to 1996 (arbitrary cutoff). Turns out, 4 teams improved their offense by 188 or more runs over that period - the 2003 Braves (+199 runs), the 2000 White Sox (+201), the 2004 Tigers (+236), and the 1999 Diamondbacks (+243).
     
    How did they do it? Were the primary drivers players the organizations drafted, free agents, trade acquisitions, waiver pickups, Rule 5 guys?
     
    Below is a position by position look at changes to wRC for each team. (wRC is an estimator of total offensive production in runs, you can read more about it here). Below that, is a tally of wRC improvement by method of acquisition. First up:
     
    the 2002-2003 Braves
     
    The period 2002-2003 in Braves history is extraordinary. The 2003 team outscored the '02 club by a whopping 199 runs, but the pitching surrendered 175 more runs. Both teams won 101 games during the regular season and both teams lost the NLDS in 5 games.
     
    According to wRC, the '03 team saw a 191 run improvement from its position players. That gives us an indication how closely the weighted averages matched reality - very closely, in this case. The best improvements were at 2nd base (+69 wRC) and at Catcher (+55).
     
    The short explanation for the Braves' offensive explosions is "it came from within." At 2nd base, 53rd round pick Marcus Giles took a big step forward. In 2002, his sophomore year, Giles produced just 26 runs over 242 PAs. Jesse Garcia, Keith Lockhart, and Mark DeRosa shared 624 PAs and produced the other 51 wRC's. All together, the bunch was worth 77 wRC. The next year, Giles took over the lion's share of PAs and was worth 113 wRC all by himself. 2003 would be the best season of his short career.
     
    In 2002, catching was done by committee - Henry Blanco took 24% of PAs and was worth 16 wRC. Javy Lopez took 37%, for 34 wRC, Julio Franco took 37% (47 wRC) and Steve Torrealba took 2% (-1 wRC). Overall the group was worth 96 wRC. In 2003 however, Javy Lopez, signed by the Braves as an amateur free agent in 1987, broke out for a career year - 108 wRC over 495 PAs. He was 32. Blanco, Julio Estrada, and Julio Franco pitched in for 43 wRC more. Overall the position improved by 55 runs.
     
    The rest of the 2003 team saw small offensive improvements across the board - 7 runs at Pitcher (Russ Ortiz had 2 home runs), 2 at first base, 29 at third base (Vinny Castilla improved by 29 runs over 2002 at age 35), and 22 runs in right field where a 34 year old Gary Sheffield had a monster year, producing 142 wRC (which boosted right field production by 22 wRC). Sheffield stands out as one of the few trade acquisitions - after the 2002 season, the Braves shipped out 6th round pick Andrew Brown, 36 year old outfielder Brian Jordan, and 23 year old pitcher Odalis Perez to get him.
     
    The 1999-2000 White Sox
     
    According to wRC, the 1999 White Sox should have scored 784 runs and the 2000 squad should have scored 934 (a 150 run improvement). In reality, the 1999 team scored 777 runs and the 2000 team scored 978. So, there's a pretty sizable variance between the weighted estimator and reality in this case. There are a lot of variables that lead to scoring runs. One of the weaknesses weighting every HBP, walk, single, double, triple, home run, stolen base, and caught stealing the same, is that not all of these events have an equal impact on real games. An obvious example would be triples - hitting one with 2 outs is worth less than hitting one with zero or 1 out. wRC makes no distinction, it weighs them the same.
     
    In any case, where wRC says the 2000 White Sox improved most was at shortstop (+84 runs), DH (+61), and left field (+41). The story behind that improvement has 3 aspects - a trade, a future HoF draft pick, and an amateur free agent signing.
     
    On January 12, 2000, the White Sox traded 33 year old Jaime Navarro and 2nd year pitcher John Snyder to the Brewers for a 32 year old Cal Eldred and 30 year old Jose Valentin. As a result of the trade, 22 year old SS Michael Caruso, a 2nd round pick, was optioned to the minors in 2000 where he stayed the rest of his career (with one exception being a 12 game stint for the Royals in 2002). Valentin took those PAs from Caruso and produced 95 wRC, which was 60 more than Caruso managed in 564 PAs the year before. Journeyman infielder Tony Graffanino pitched in 21 more.
     
    At DH, the Big Hurt. Only he was the Medium Hurt in 1999, when he produced "just" 99 wRC over 590 PAs. But in 2000, at age 32, he was Big again and and put up a stellar 155 wRC's over 707 PAs. Thomas was an organizational guy whom the Sox drafted 7th overall in 1989.
     
    In the spring of 2000, 2nd year waiver pickup Brian Simmons broke his Achiles. He had surgery and missed all of the 2000 season (and pretty much every year after that). This narrowed the Sox's left field options to two - 2nd year amateur free agent pickup Carlos Lee and 27 year old 4th round pick Jeff Abbott. Lee assumed the majority of the at-bats (as he had in 1999), but stepped up his game. He improved by 26 runs over his 1999 season, and Abbott pitched in 29 more over 242 PAs to improve the production by 41 wRC overall.
     
    As for real-world wins, the 1999 team had 75 and in 2000 they had 95, three games better than their Pythagorean W-L in each year.
     
     
    2003-2004 Tigers
     
    wRC says the 2003 Tigers scored 581 runs, and the 2004 Tigers scored 824. In reality, the 2003 squad scored 591 and the 2004 team scored 827. Very close.
     
    Pythagoras says the 2003 Tigers won 49, and the 2004 team won 79. Reality says they 2003 team won 43 and the 2004 team won 72. In addition to the offensive explosion, Tigers pitching improved to prevent 84 additional runs in 2004. Together the 320 run improvement to their RS/RA differential was 2nd most of any team since 1996. What this shows is just how bad the 2003 Tigers were - their offensive explosion a year later caused no casualties. The starting point was so low that the 2004 team still stunk.
     
    Anyway, the 2004 Tigers saw a number of small improvements. At first, a 26 year old Carlos Pena improved on his '03 performance by 11 wRC. In right field, a 33 year old Bobby Higginson impproved by 9 runs over his 2003 performance. But the lion's share of the Tiger's explosion came from the middle infield and catcher positions. Amateur free agency, free agency, and a trade are behind it.
     
    On January 8, 2004, the Tigers shipped a 23 year old Ramon Santiago, a former two-time Baseball America top 100 prospect, and minor league pitcher Juan Gonzalez to the Mariners for 28 year old shortstop Carlos Guillen. With Guillen at short, 22 year old Omar Infante transitioned from being a utility/backup infielder to the primary second baseman. The two of them combined to produce 169 wRC over 1139 PAs in 2004 - a 79 run improvement.
     
    Brandon Inge caught 100 games for the Tigers in 2003. It would be the last year he spent significant time behind the plate. That offseason, the Tigers moved Inge to a third base/utility role, parted ways with 33 year old Matt Walbeck, and signed 32 year old free agent Ivan Rodriguez to a 4 year $40m contract. Rodriguez caught 125 games the next year for 90 wRC. Overall, the wRC improvement at catcher was 58 runs.
     
     
    The 1998-1999 Diamondbacks
     
    The 1999 Diamondbacks, like the other three teams, didn't win the World Series. But, they did put together the greatest single season turnaround of a franchise for the period 1996-2013. The DBacks improved their net scoring differential by 379 runs in 1999 (+243 on offense, -136 on pitching). For the offensive side, the story was: a trade, a second trade, and a 3rd trade.
     
    First trade: Dec 28, 1998. The DBacks shipped 22 year old rightfielder and top 100 prospect Karim Garcia to the Tigers for 31 year old Luis Gonzelez. Gonzalez took over in left, displacing a committee of 25 year old David Dellucci, 25 year old Yamil Benitez, 31 year old Bernard Gilkey, 27 year old Brent Brede, and and 28 year old Andy Fox. Gonzalez was worth 131 wRC, a 64 run improvement over the committee that was worth a combined 67 wRC in 1998.
     
    At third, 33 year old Matt Williams improved on his 1998 season by 36 wRC runs. Williams had been acquired by trade prior to the 1998 season that sent Travis Fryman, Tom Martin and cash to the Giants.
     
    With 22 year old Karim Garcia gone to the Tigers, the Diamondbacks moved to fill right field. They shipped 19 year old outfielder Paul Weichard and 26 year old RHP Jason Boyd to the Pirates for 29 year old Tony Womack. Womack moved into the leadoff spot, and was worth 83 wRC in right over 499 PAs.
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