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whatyouknowtwinsfan
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The Minnesota Twins announced the TV broadcast team for 2019. Overall, there weren't too many surprises. Bremer, Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris (who will split time between Detroit and Minnesota's broadcasts in 2019), Justin Morneau, Latroy Hawkins, and Roy Smalley are all returning in 2019. However, there is one change. Torii Hunter will not return in 2019. Replacing him will be former Twins and Yankees broadcaster and former Twin Jim Kaat. Kaat has recently called Thursday night baseball on MLB Network alongside Bob Costas or Matt Vasgersian. This has the makings of an interesting group. What do you think of the addition of Kaat? -
Thanks to brooksbaseball.net (Gibson, Morton, and Perez) and Fangraphs for the data.
You know the profile of a sinkerballer, the low-90s fastball, no strike out pitch, and wildly inconsistent. It fits the mold of the newest Twin, Martin Perez, whose career struggles have led many to question the move. Here, I offer a rationale for the move using two previous sinkerballers who changed their repertoire and transformed their careers through increased velocity and relying on a breaking pitch to strike hitters out.
It's important first to distinguish Perez's career pitch percentages in comparison to Morton's and Gibson's at the points of their transitions in repertoire.
Kyle Gibson (career through 2017):
Sinker-41.4%
4-Seam-17.82%
Changeup-16.04%
Slider-20.06%
Curve-4.68%
Avg. Sinker Velocity: 92.2 MPH
ERA: 4.70
K%: 16.0%
K/9: 6.2
FIP: 4.35
Charlie Morton (career through 2016):
Sinker: 48.6%
4-Seam: 17.26%
Changeup: 4.03%
Slider: 1.35%
Curve: 20.07%
Cutter: 3.29%
Split: 5.31%
Avg. Sinker Velocity: 92.14 MPH
ERA: 4.54
K%: 16.0%
K/9: 6.3
FIP: 4.10
Martin Perez (career):
Sinker: 37.52%
4-Seam: 23.33%
Changeup: 19.37%
Slider: 10.89%
Curve: 8.89%
Avg. Sinker Velocity: 93.16 MPH
ERA: 4.63
K%: 13.9%
K/9: 5.46
FIP: 4.44
My jaw just about dropped when looking at the numbers. All three used the sinker around 40% of the time. Perez used his 4-seam a little bit more and had a bit more velocity. Outside of velocity, Perez's percentages are much worse. His K% and k/9 are below both Morton and Gibson. His ERA is directly in between the two and his FIP is the worst amongst the three, chalk it up to relying on weak contact being made and defense being on his side. Also interesting to me was that Gibson's slider and Morton's curve, effectively their swing and miss pitches, were used at basically the same percentage! Morton and Gibson also had almost the exact same k/9 and sinker velocity and their K% WAS THE EXACT SAME at 16%! As you can see from the ERA and FIP, their repertoire made them average at best and more commonly mediocre because they relied on defense to bail them out. For both of them, change was needed and as results have shown, were effective.
Charlie Morton signed with the Houston Astros in 2017. The changes Houston made were immediate and effective. Over the 2017 and 2018 seasons, here were the results.
Sinker: 35.15%
4-Seam: 21.04%
Changeup: 0.19%
Slider: 0.52%
Curve: 29.15%
Cutter: 8.07%
Split: 5.85%
Avg. Sinker Velocity: 95.42 MPH
ERA: 3.36
K%: 27.7%
K/9: 10.4
FIP: 3.53
Houston helped Morton design a delivery that increased velocity, while decreased sinker usage and increased 4-seam usage helped increase velocity as well. Notice that Morton did not sacrifice the sinker, it's still his most used pitch. However, it's been made more effective by increasing the usage of his curve. Morton's curve in 2017 and 2018 had a whiff percentage of 18.67%. Houston realized that increased curve usage would help Morton get more swings and misses. It has led to Morton striking out an additional 10% of the batters he faces and also 4 more strikeouts per 9 innings while increased usage of the cutter and split have resulted because those two pitches generate whiffs as well. Morton went from a mediocre major leaguer to a rotation regular and potential all star by changing his repertoire and increasing the use of pitches that generate swings and misses.
While Kyle Gibson didn't see the large velocity increase that Houston's program did in helping transform Morton, a noticeable uptick in velocity as well as better slider usage led to a career year. Here's Kyle Gibson's 2018 numbers in the following categories:
Sinker-33.93%
4-Seam-23.84%
Changeup-11.01%
Slider-21.01%
Curve-10.21%
Avg. Sinker Velocity: 93.42 MPH
ERA: 3.62
K%: 21.7%
K/9: 8.19
FIP: 4.13
Gibson's numbers didn't jump to the extent of Morton, but they're nothing to slouch at either. Like Morton, Gibson reduced usage of his sinker and a mechanical change led to a slight uptick in velocity. Where Gibson reduced fastball usage, he utilized his breaking ball. The Twins noticed something in Gibson's slider and for good reason. His slider generated whiffs an INSANE 27.17% of the time in 2018, no doubt one of the best sliders in MLB. However, Gibson didn't use it that much more in 2018 than his career before 2018. I think the Twins have changed how it gets used. It no longer is used as a get me over pitch, it is used to put hitters away and has become extremely effective as a result. Gibson also had a whiff rate of 18.11% with the 4-seamer and a whiff rate of 18.21% with the changeup, establishing two more pitches that can generate swings and misses. One of the things I noticed also was an increased use of the curve in 2018. While it's not as effective at generating swings and misses, it provides another pitch in the repertoire to deceive hitters. My hope in 2019 is that Wes Johnson can work some magic and increase Gibson's velocity in 2019..
What should the Twins do in 2019 to Martin Perez to see results similar to Gibson and Morton? I propose a few things.
Change his mechanics to increase velocity.
Decrease use of the sinker while increasing 4-seam use.
Determine a swing and miss pitch for Perez that either gets increased use (like Morton) or is designed specifically to put hitters away (like Gibson). His changeup looks to be the most promising, generating a whiff rate of 17.12% in his career.
Obviously, his performance is yet to be seen, but I think this is along the lines of the rationale the Twins signing Perez. If he's going to find success, I think this is the way.
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In 2018, the Twins and Fox Sports North used a variety of analysts alongside longtime Twins TV PBP guy Dick Bremer. Bert Blyleven, Roy Smalley, Jack Morris, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau (several times along with Smalley creating a 3-man booth), and Latroy Hawkins all took a shot at it this past year. Going into 2019, the crowd looks very similar. However, there appear to be multiple changes. Back in October, It was reported that the Twins were lessening the amount of games Bert Blyleven would work in 2019 and 2020. Blyleven will work around 50 games in 2019 and around 30 games in 2020 as part of his contract. In the near term, it makes me curious who will take those remaining games in 2019. In the long term, it makes me curious whether the Twins will be making significant changes to their broadcasts after 2020.
With Blyleven working fewer games, it's likely that the other Twins commentators will pick up the slack in 2019. Here's the case for each of these men:
Roy Smalley: According to the Twins website, Smalley has worked in some capacity on Twins broadcasts the past 16 seasons, first as a pre/post game analyst and the past few years as a fill in broadcast analyst. In my opinion, Smalley has tremendous knowledge of the game and among the contenders has the most broadcast experience. I think it's likely he sees the majority of the games available in Blyleven's absence, especially considering some camaraderie with Bremer as well as several occasions last year when Fox Sports North went with the 3-man booth of Bremer, Smalley, and Morneau.
Jack Morris: According to the Twins website, Morris has worked in some capacity on Twins broadcasts off and on since 2005. In addition to the Twins, Morris has been an analyst with both the Tigers and Blue Jays. Because of his extensive experience and pitching insight, it would seem likely that he would see an increase in his schedule similar to Smalley. However, recent reports out of the Detroit believe that Morris and Kirk Gibson will be the replacement for Rod Allen on Fox Sports Detroit after his highly publicized altercation with former play by play man Mario Impemba back in September. What's interesting about this is that Morris will likely see a heavy amount of Tigers games as Gibson has been diagnosed with Parkinson's Disease and generally works a limited amount of games. It's possible Morris will be the analyst for half or more than half of Tigers broadcasts. In addition to his occasional appearances on MLB Network and MLB.com, it's possible (and likely) that Morris doesn't return to Twins broadcasts in 2019 or if he does, returns in a heavily reduced role (10-15 games?) meaning that Hunter, Morneau, and Hawkins may have to pick up the games that Morris would normally work in addition to their regular schedules in the booth.
Torii Hunter: We all know Torii Hunter for his smile, off the cuff remarks, and flamboyant personality. In fact, these are traits he relies on in the broadcast booth. Along with Bremer, he provides a unique, positive, and entertaining analysis of the Minnesota Twins. However, he also serves as a special assistant in baseball operations, meaning he has another role to fill with the Twins that takes priority over broadcast analysis. Does that mean he can't work more? That remains to be seen.
Justin Morneau: Morneau showcased an extensive knowledge for baseball, particularly hitting, during his time in the booth and pre/post game chair in 2018, especially when he was paired with Roy Smalley in the booth for games. While Morneau also has a role within baseball operations, it seems like he's more willing to spend time as a broadcaster as he appeared on broadcasts more than Hawkins and Hunter in 2018. Additionally, he not only appeared in the booth, but also made appearances on the pre and post game shows. Out of the Hunter, Morneau, and Hawkins trio, it seems like Morneau is eyeing further broadcasting opportunities the most.
Latroy Hawkins: Rounding out the 2018 candidates is Hawkins. Out of the previous 3, Hawkins appears the most poised to be a broadcaster. He seems confident in the booth which aides his analytic approach to the game. This analytic approach is very much welcomed as Hawkins seems to be the only pitcher on this list to emphasize it as part of his analysis (I would argue Morneau and Smalley share a fair amount of analysis when on air). Bremer seems to encourage this as well when Hawkins is in the booth. Like Hunter and Morneau, Hawkins also works as a special assistant to baseball operations for the Twins. While Hawkins seems like the most polished among the three, he's continually seen the smallest workload. As a result, I'm curious if he's willing to reduce his baseball operations role to broadcast more or if Hawkins will continue to work only 10 or so games every year.
Outside Candidates: Another possibility is the Twins could add analysts in 2019 to this group to fill in the remaining games. Among former Twins personnel, Tom Kelly, Michael Cuddyer, Glen Perkins, Dan Gladden, and Joe Mauer would likely top the list. Kelly has previously worked in the booth on Fox Sports North. While Cuddyer and Mauer haven't broadcasted, Cuddyer seems like a natural every time he's in the booth as a guest and Mauer would bring prestige and higher ratings. Gladden likely will remain on the radio. Glen Perkins is interesting to me. He broadcasted a couple of Facebook games last year, so he clearly has interest in getting into the business. Being he's only been retired for a little over a year, he knows a good portion of the Twins roster and being from Minnesota, he would be a local celebrity, like Mauer. Fear not Twins fans, it could also be A.J. Pierzynski. Obviously, he brings a unique personality, has interest in broadcasting, and has history as a Twins player. I don't know how possible any of these are, but they could also be a possibility.
This answers the question surrounding 2019, but the Twins may have a broadcast opening after 2020. It seems like the reduction of Blyleven's schedule will lead to his eventual departure. Will it be one of the men listed above? That seems likely. However, it might also give the Twins in opportunity to search for media free agents. Bremer has been in the booth for 30+ years. Could he be nearing the end of his time with the Twins? Gladden has been in the booth for 15+ years. Could the Twins look to make a change there. While I believe Bremer, Provus, and Gladden are safe for both the short-term and long-term, it's likely the Twins will have an color analyst opening on Fox Sports North, interesting considering the current situation the network is in. This past year, Fox Sports North was sold as part of Fox's selloff of assets to Disney. However, Disney will be forced to resell the regional networks (FS North included). There are several candidates to purchase the networks, including Sinclair, Tegna (owns KARE 11), MLB, Amazon, Fox, Ice Cube (yes, the musician) and Comcast. However, multiple sources (including this NY Post article) speculate Jim Pohlad might be interested in purchasing Fox Sports North individually. The Twins tried and failed creating their own network (Victory Sports One) during the 2000s. However, they might have more clout with cable companies by purchasing a network that also broadcasts every other major men's professional team in Minnesota. Additionally, the Pohlad owned GO Radio stations already have an online and smartphone presence. Could they morph FOX Sports North into the GO branding similar to YES Network in New York, NESN in Boston, MASN in Baltimore/DC area, or the new Marquee channel the cubs are creating? In that case, Twins broadcasts would be directly under ownership. What could that mean for the broadcast teams long-term? A lot of questions have to be answered, but there are some interesting possibilities for Twins broadcasts over the next few years.
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