Twins Fan From Afar

[Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] To say that it's a big year for Francisco Liriano is an understatement. He's coming off an awful 2011 (except for that no-hitter), he's trying to prove that he can stay healthy for an entire season, and he's pitching for a contract, whether it's from the Twins, or any of the other teams in baseball that might be interested in a lefty with a nasty slider. Earlier this winter, I made my case for trying to extend Liriano before Spring Training even started. Clearly, the Twins (and possibly Liriano) had no interest in that. So now, the Twins are faced with the options of extending Liriano during the season, trying to lock him up after the season, trading him for a potential haul during the season if the team isn't in contention and Liriano looks great, letting him walk, or possibly having to offer him a 1-year, $12.5 million deal in order to get draft pick compensation under the new collective bargaining agreement. That's a lot of money for the Twins, even with some of the starting pitching dollars likely coming off the books next season. Clearly, then, there is a lot at stake this season for both Liriano and the Twins. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-U79AbH4_ApI/T3rtfnJth3I/AAAAAAAAAN4/JSqJ7QGI760/s1600/Frankie.bmp I really think that we're going to see a Liriano this season that closely replicates his 2010 success. All the indicators are there: he showed up to camp healthy and in shape after pitching a little during the winter; he has not walked many batters this spring; for the most part he has kept his pitch count reasonable, allowing him to last longer; and he still has been striking out a fair number of hitters. For Liriano -- or most any starter, for that matter -- those are the keys to success, and it looks like Liriano is mostly there. Look at the numbers for Liriano this spring: 27 innings pitched; 2.33 ERA; and most impressively, 33 strikeouts and only 5 walks given up. His WHIP is 1.11, after allowing 25 total hits. So, he has been a strikeout pitcher that pitches to contact. Compare his 2012 spring stats to 2010, when he threw 20 innings, compiled a 2.70 ERA, struck out 30 and walked 5. That spring, his WHIP was 1.20, and he gave up 19 hits. Pretty similar numbers, and reason for optimism. Unfortunately, Liriano could be pretty great this year, and it might not mean a whole lot to the Twins. The Twins look like a team that will score runs, but will also give up runs from a "just average" defense and a potentially weak bullpen. Some of Liriano's good work, then, could be undone, either by a few hits that should be outs, or from a bullpen implosion after he exits the game. My projection for Liriano this season is the following: 14-11; 3.4 ERA; 210 innings pitched; 185 strikeouts. It will be a very good season for Liriano, and I think he'll remain healthy and lead the staff in victories. And following such a season, there's going to be a contending team that says, "hey, those 14 wins he got in Minnesota would have been 17 or 18 in (pick your choice of New York, Boston, Texas or some other good team)," and a couple of those losses from blown Matt Capps saves wouldn't have happened with us, because our closer is actually good and dependable! Simply stated, I think Liriano could price himself out of Minnesota with a solid 2012 season. In the end, it's all speculation, of course. Liriano has to stay healthy, and he has to demonstrate that he can control his emotions in big games -- otherwise contending teams will be reluctant to gamble on him. But in 2012, I think we're going to see an interesting mix of a strikeout pitcher who finally has realized the value of a 7-pitch, 3 groundout inning.

[Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] To say that it's a big year for Francisco Liriano is an understatement. He's coming off an awful 2011 (except for that no-hitter), he's trying to prove that he can stay healthy for an entire season, and he's pitching for a contract, whether it's from the Twins, or any of the other teams in baseball that might be interested in a lefty with a nasty slider. Earlier this winter, I made my case for trying to extend Liriano before Spring Training even started. Clearly, the Twins (and possibly Liriano) had no interest in that. So now, the Twins are faced with the options of extending Liriano during the season, trying to lock him up after the season, trading him for a potential haul during the season if the team isn't in contention and Liriano looks great, letting him walk, or possibly having to offer him a 1-year, $12.5 million deal in order to get draft pick compensation under the new collective bargaining agreement. That's a lot of money for the Twins, even with some of the starting pitching dollars likely coming off the books next season. Clearly, then, there is a lot at stake this season for both Liriano and the Twins. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-U79AbH4_ApI/T3rtfnJth3I/AAAAAAAAAN4/JSqJ7QGI760/s1600/Frankie.bmp I really think that we're going to see a Liriano this season that closely replicates his 2010 success. All the indicators are there: he showed up to camp healthy and in shape after pitching a little during the winter; he has not walked many batters this spring; for the most part he has kept his pitch count reasonable, allowing him to last longer; and he still has been striking out a fair number of hitters. For Liriano -- or most any starter, for that matter -- those are the keys to success, and it looks like Liriano is mostly there. Look at the numbers for Liriano this spring: 27 innings pitched; 2.33 ERA; and most impressively, 33 strikeouts and only 5 walks given up. His WHIP is 1.11, after allowing 25 total hits. So, he has been a strikeout pitcher that pitches to contact. Compare his 2012 spring stats to 2010, when he threw 20 innings, compiled a 2.70 ERA, struck out 30 and walked 5. That spring, his WHIP was 1.20, and he gave up 19 hits. Pretty similar numbers, and reason for optimism. Unfortunately, Liriano could be pretty great this year, and it might not mean a whole lot to the Twins. The Twins look like a team that will score runs, but will also give up runs from a "just average" defense and a potentially weak bullpen. Some of Liriano's good work, then, could be undone, either by a few hits that should be outs, or from a bullpen implosion after he exits the game. My projection for Liriano this season is the following: 14-11; 3.4 ERA; 210 innings pitched; 185 strikeouts. It will be a very good season for Liriano, and I think he'll remain healthy and lead the staff in victories. And following such a season, there's going to be a contending team that says, "hey, those 14 wins he got in Minnesota would have been 17 or 18 in (pick your choice of New York, Boston, Texas or some other good team)," and a couple of those losses from blown Matt Capps saves wouldn't have happened with us, because our closer is actually good and dependable! Simply stated, I think Liriano could price himself out of Minnesota with a solid 2012 season. In the end, it's all speculation, of course. Liriano has to stay healthy, and he has to demonstrate that he can control his emotions in big games -- otherwise contending teams will be reluctant to gamble on him. But in 2012, I think we're going to see an interesting mix of a strikeout pitcher who finally has realized the value of a 7-pitch, 3 groundout inning.

[Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] As I scanned down the list of position players on the Twins' 25 man roster, and saw names like Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Denard Span as starters, and guys like Luke Hughes and Sean Burroughs off the bench, something came to mind: there shouldn't be an awful hitter on this team in 2012. If you've followed the Twins for the past several seasons, there is always at least one hitter that can barely hit his weight, yet makes his way onto the 25 man roster, and eventually onto the field, to the chagrin of most fans. Last year, it was Drew Butera, who batted .167. Tsuyoshi Nishioka wasn't much better, hitting .226. Much to my pleasure, neither player made the Twins' roster to begin 2012. Perhaps there is hope for each. Nishioka has been playing pretty well in the AAA games, and maybe coach Tom Brunansky can help Butera at the plate? [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container] http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bG0vU3--XzY/T3mcoWiEWuI/AAAAAAAAANw/6AEBkJqvauM/s320/Tolbert.bmp [TD=class: tr-caption]It seems like there is no room on the Twins' roster for the Matt Tolberts of the world. [/TD] [/TABLE] Even going back to past seasons, there is always at least one guy that struggles mightily at the plate -- that we knew full well would struggle -- and yet he made the team. Matt Tolbert, for instance, batted .232, .240 and .198 in 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively. His "value" was that he could play many positions, but it certainly didn't outweigh his shortcomings at the plate. How about Jason Repko, our former fourth outfielder? He hit .228 and .226 in 2010 and 2011 with the Twins. A good defensive player, yes, but I'd much rather have Ben Revere's skill set as a backup outfielder. And let's not forget Nick Punto. In fairness, he compiled a couple decent offensive seasons in Minnesota (batting .290 in 2006 and .284 in 2008). Those seasons, however, were sandwiched between seasons like 2007, where he played in 150 games and batted .210, or 2010, his final season in Minnesota, where he hit .239. Punto, however, played great defense at a few different positions, so he didn't have to hit .300 to have value. Going back a little further, there was Brian Buscher. He had one decent season (2008) in a part-time role, but hit .235 in 2009, his last year as a Twin. The 2012 roster just feels a little different. Sure, it's possible that any one of the position players could have a Tolbert-esque season. That's the nature of baseball, and that's why the Yankees or Red Sox or Phillies don't win the World Series every season. But if I was a gambler, I'd bet that our offense will be pretty decent. Trevor Plouffe might be the biggest risk. He hit .238/.305/.392 in 81 games last season, but has looked pretty good this spring. It's a make or break year for him, as he is out of options, so I expect that he will want to produce well this season. Ben Revere may never become a great player, but it's tough to imagine him not improving at all from last season, where he compiled a .267/.310/.309 line in what was really his rookie campaign. Australian Luke Hughes, who hit .223 last season, has had a monster spring. As of a few days ago, he was leading the team in home runs, RBIs and slugging percentage. Some might think Spring Training stats are meaningless, but I don't. He was hitting the cover off the ball, and I bet it's going to translate into more success in 2012. Like Revere, it's tough to imagine Hughes not improving those 2011 stats. Perhaps the largest unknown quantity on this roster is Sean Burroughs. The fact that he made this team as a non-roster invitee -- especially when you factor in his personal story -- is pretty impressive. Burroughs played last year in 78 games -- his first MLB action since 2006 -- and is a .273 lifetime hitter in just over 1,800 plate appearances. He'll be in a bench role in Minnesota, and I'm sure that's fine with him. Burroughs is hitting .324 this spring. Perhaps it's doubtful he could compile that kind of average off the bench in his first season in the big leagues since 2006, but I'm guessing that he will be better than the .225 hitters that we are accustomed to seeing as off-the-bench infield help. In the end, at least from the offensive standpoint, I think the Twins are primed to have 13 decent hitters. Some will progress, some will regress and some will have typical seasons. It's nice to think, though, that there is no "guaranteed out" in the lineup or on the bench. Perhaps the concern, then, is to what extent the Twins sacrificed defense in favor of offense. Though we laughed at Punto sometimes when he batted, he was excellent defensively. Can Burroughs or Hughes turn into a great defensive specialist? Or, at the very least, can the Twins' position players make the routine plays this season to keep the team in games?

[Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] As I scanned down the list of position players on the Twins' 25 man roster, and saw names like Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Denard Span as starters, and guys like Luke Hughes and Sean Burroughs off the bench, something came to mind: there shouldn't be an awful hitter on this team in 2012. If you've followed the Twins for the past several seasons, there is always at least one hitter that can barely hit his weight, yet makes his way onto the 25 man roster, and eventually onto the field, to the chagrin of most fans. Last year, it was Drew Butera, who batted .167. Tsuyoshi Nishioka wasn't much better, hitting .226. Much to my pleasure, neither player made the Twins' roster to begin 2012. Perhaps there is hope for each. Nishioka has been playing pretty well in the AAA games, and maybe coach Tom Brunansky can help Butera at the plate? [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container] http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bG0vU3--XzY/T3mcoWiEWuI/AAAAAAAAANw/6AEBkJqvauM/s320/Tolbert.bmp [TD=class: tr-caption]It seems like there is no room on the Twins' roster for the Matt Tolberts of the world. [/TD] [/TABLE] Even going back to past seasons, there is always at least one guy that struggles mightily at the plate -- that we knew full well would struggle -- and yet he made the team. Matt Tolbert, for instance, batted .232, .240 and .198 in 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively. His "value" was that he could play many positions, but it certainly didn't outweigh his shortcomings at the plate. How about Jason Repko, our former fourth outfielder? He hit .228 and .226 in 2010 and 2011 with the Twins. A good defensive player, yes, but I'd much rather have Ben Revere's skill set as a backup outfielder. And let's not forget Nick Punto. In fairness, he compiled a couple decent offensive seasons in Minnesota (batting .290 in 2006 and .284 in 2008). Those seasons, however, were sandwiched between seasons like 2007, where he played in 150 games and batted .210, or 2010, his final season in Minnesota, where he hit .239. Punto, however, played great defense at a few different positions, so he didn't have to hit .300 to have value. Going back a little further, there was Brian Buscher. He had one decent season (2008) in a part-time role, but hit .235 in 2009, his last year as a Twin. The 2012 roster just feels a little different. Sure, it's possible that any one of the position players could have a Tolbert-esque season. That's the nature of baseball, and that's why the Yankees or Red Sox or Phillies don't win the World Series every season. But if I was a gambler, I'd bet that our offense will be pretty decent. Trevor Plouffe might be the biggest risk. He hit .238/.305/.392 in 81 games last season, but has looked pretty good this spring. It's a make or break year for him, as he is out of options, so I expect that he will want to produce well this season. Ben Revere may never become a great player, but it's tough to imagine him not improving at all from last season, where he compiled a .267/.310/.309 line in what was really his rookie campaign. Australian Luke Hughes, who hit .223 last season, has had a monster spring. As of a few days ago, he was leading the team in home runs, RBIs and slugging percentage. Some might think Spring Training stats are meaningless, but I don't. He was hitting the cover off the ball, and I bet it's going to translate into more success in 2012. Like Revere, it's tough to imagine Hughes not improving those 2011 stats. Perhaps the largest unknown quantity on this roster is Sean Burroughs. The fact that he made this team as a non-roster invitee -- especially when you factor in his personal story -- is pretty impressive. Burroughs played last year in 78 games -- his first MLB action since 2006 -- and is a .273 lifetime hitter in just over 1,800 plate appearances. He'll be in a bench role in Minnesota, and I'm sure that's fine with him. Burroughs is hitting .324 this spring. Perhaps it's doubtful he could compile that kind of average off the bench in his first season in the big leagues since 2006, but I'm guessing that he will be better than the .225 hitters that we are accustomed to seeing as off-the-bench infield help. In the end, at least from the offensive standpoint, I think the Twins are primed to have 13 decent hitters. Some will progress, some will regress and some will have typical seasons. It's nice to think, though, that there is no "guaranteed out" in the lineup or on the bench. Perhaps the concern, then, is to what extent the Twins sacrificed defense in favor of offense. Though we laughed at Punto sometimes when he batted, he was excellent defensively. Can Burroughs or Hughes turn into a great defensive specialist? Or, at the very least, can the Twins' position players make the routine plays this season to keep the team in games?

Go Justin! Hot bat continues.

Good for Burroughs. Great story, etc. Hopefully he can be productive off the bench.

Morneau continues the hot streak!

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?377-Tempered-Expectations-for-Parmelee

Let's say that Morneau does put together a great half-season, that the Twins are way out of the race, and that trading him becomes an option. We have heard repeatedly that Morneau is essentially 1 concussion away from retiring. Those words came from Morneau. I'm not suggesting that the Twins couldn't move his contract if he played really well, but I think it's unrealistic to believe that GMs from other teams are going to conveniently forget his serious and protracted injury history and "give up the farm" to get him for 1.5 years and $21 million.

Excited to see Wimmers on the roster.

[Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] Chris Parmelee should be fine. He looked great last September in a Twins uniform, and was a bright spot during an otherwise dismal time. Of the three prospects called up -- Parmelee, Joe Benson and Liam Hendriks -- Parmelee looked the most ready for the show. After watching several Rock Cats games last year in person, I was a little surprised that Parmelee, and not Benson, looked better in his time as a Twin, but that is why I don't get paid to do anything baseball related. You can call it a small sample size, and you'd be correct, but for 21 games in a Twins uniform, Parmelee had a .355/.443/.592 slash line with 4 home runs and 18 RBIs, and most importantly, didn't looked overmatched at the plate or in the field. He also just looked comfortable playing in the majors, which some call-ups are not. And to Parmelee's credit, he followed up his September cup of coffee with a nice glass of Florida orange juice. His numbers aren't quite as impressive, but with a .269 average, 3 home runs and 9 RBIs, he at least has demonstrated that the power he exhibited last September wasn't necessarily a fluke. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nk8l7j_Q7Dg/T3Ww4w4Ko-I/AAAAAAAAANo/XX608dNYa90/s320/Parmelee.bmp With Morneau presumably starting the season as the full-time designated hitter, and with Parmelee's success, Parmelee is the odds-on favorite to start the season at first base. Understandably, once fans got past the news that Morneau will now be a professional hitter, many are excited by Parmelee's potential. In fact, there have been a few blog posts, and even newspaper articles, suggesting that Parmelee might be the next big thing for the Twins. I just don't think that we should get ahead of ourselves. There's likely going to be a big difference between what Parmelee can provide at the plate over the course of a full season in the majors -- seeing pitchers and ballparks for the first time, and becoming accustomed to the rigorous travel schedule and time demands -- and what he demonstrated in New Britain and Minnesota in 2011, and in a few weeks of exhibition games in 2012. I think Parmelee will be a success, both this year and the future, but I also think that in 2012 he will much more closely resemble the player that hit a composite .282 at New Britain than the player that took Target Field by storm last September. As fans, we should be fine with that. Parmelee, who turned 24 last month, is a rookie in the truest sense, without even a game of AAA baseball under his belt. Though he has looked fairly consistent, be ready for slumps, and expect -- at least occasionally -- for him to look overmatched at the plate. It's been a while since the Twins had an exciting rookie prospect come up that both management and fans expected to have a good career (I won't even mention Wilson Ramos; and Danny Valencia, though he did well in 2010, by no means shot up through the minor league system and never batted at or above .300 in AA or AAA). In 2005, Justin Morneau's first season as a full-time first baseman, he batted .239/.304/.437 with 22 home runs, 79 RBIs and 94 strikeouts. The power was there, clearly, but he was still a little raw. The next season he was the American League Most Valuable Player. During his nacency, Morneau was also rated the #14 and #16 prospect by Baseball America. Parmelee, conversely, did not come up through the system with such expectations attached to him. Here's what I expect from Parmelee, assuming just for now that he is a full-time starter (though likely he will be splitting time at first with Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit and perhaps Morneau): .270/.345/.440, with 18 home runs and 70 RBIs. And I expect the defense to be solid, but not astounding. Yes, Parmelee is ready to play in Minnesota. And yes, he looks like a really solid first base prospect with perhaps an exciting future ahead of him. But there's a jump between AA, a September call-up and Spring Training exhibition games, and perhaps having to face CC Sabathia one night, and Justin Verlander or Cliff Lee the next night. The good thing, though, is that Parmelee has looked like a professional this spring, and I have little doubt that he is the type of player that will make the adjustments necessary for long-term success.

[Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] Chris Parmelee should be fine. He looked great last September in a Twins uniform, and was a bright spot during an otherwise dismal time. Of the three prospects called up -- Parmelee, Joe Benson and Liam Hendriks -- Parmelee looked the most ready for the show. After watching several Rock Cats games last year in person, I was a little surprised that Parmelee, and not Benson, looked better in his time as a Twin, but that is why I don't get paid to do anything baseball related. You can call it a small sample size, and you'd be correct, but for 21 games in a Twins uniform, Parmelee had a .355/.443/.592 slash line with 4 home runs and 18 RBIs, and most importantly, didn't looked overmatched at the plate or in the field. He also just looked comfortable playing in the majors, which some call-ups are not. And to Parmelee's credit, he followed up his September cup of coffee with a nice glass of Florida orange juice. His numbers aren't quite as impressive, but with a .269 average, 3 home runs and 9 RBIs, he at least has demonstrated that the power he exhibited last September wasn't necessarily a fluke. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nk8l7j_Q7Dg/T3Ww4w4Ko-I/AAAAAAAAANo/XX608dNYa90/s320/Parmelee.bmp With Morneau presumably starting the season as the full-time designated hitter, and with Parmelee's success, Parmelee is the odds-on favorite to start the season at first base. Understandably, once fans got past the news that Morneau will now be a professional hitter, many are excited by Parmelee's potential. In fact, there have been a few blog posts, and even newspaper articles, suggesting that Parmelee might be the next big thing for the Twins. I just don't think that we should get ahead of ourselves. There's likely going to be a big difference between what Parmelee can provide at the plate over the course of a full season in the majors -- seeing pitchers and ballparks for the first time, and becoming accustomed to the rigorous travel schedule and time demands -- and what he demonstrated in New Britain and Minnesota in 2011, and in a few weeks of exhibition games in 2012. I think Parmelee will be a success, both this year and the future, but I also think that in 2012 he will much more closely resemble the player that hit a composite .282 at New Britain than the player that took Target Field by storm last September. As fans, we should be fine with that. Parmelee, who turned 24 last month, is a rookie in the truest sense, without even a game of AAA baseball under his belt. Though he has looked fairly consistent, be ready for slumps, and expect -- at least occasionally -- for him to look overmatched at the plate. It's been a while since the Twins had an exciting rookie prospect come up that both management and fans expected to have a good career (I won't even mention Wilson Ramos; and Danny Valencia, though he did well in 2010, by no means shot up through the minor league system and never batted at or above .300 in AA or AAA). In 2005, Justin Morneau's first season as a full-time first baseman, he batted .239/.304/.437 with 22 home runs, 79 RBIs and 94 strikeouts. The power was there, clearly, but he was still a little raw. The next season he was the American League Most Valuable Player. During his nacency, Morneau was also rated the #14 and #16 prospect by Baseball America. Parmelee, conversely, did not come up through the system with such expectations attached to him. Here's what I expect from Parmelee, assuming just for now that he is a full-time starter (though likely he will be splitting time at first with Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit and perhaps Morneau): .270/.345/.440, with 18 home runs and 70 RBIs. And I expect the defense to be solid, but not astounding. Yes, Parmelee is ready to play in Minnesota. And yes, he looks like a really solid first base prospect with perhaps an exciting future ahead of him. But there's a jump between AA, a September call-up and Spring Training exhibition games, and perhaps having to face CC Sabathia one night, and Justin Verlander or Cliff Lee the next night. The good thing, though, is that Parmelee has looked like a professional this spring, and I have little doubt that he is the type of player that will make the adjustments necessary for long-term success.

And I think he's working the 8-8 shift at Menard's today! Kidding. The Twins do a pretty good job of keeping the retired players (that live in the area) active in the community.

Thanks for the comment, CDog. I wasn't really trying to suggest that every one of those plays in the fields, or at-bats, or whatever, is a "chance for a concussion," so much as I was just curious and wanted to quantify how many plays Morneau is involved in during a full year of playing 1B and hitting regularly in the lineup -- how much he is out in the field and involved in plays. It's true that Morneau's statements have been to the effect that getting "worn down" will increase his chances for developing concussion-like symptoms. Although I'm no physician, I think there might be at least some correlation between him getting worn down by both playing 1B and hitting, and thereafter being in somewhat of a weakened state where an otherwise "simple" dive to snare a grounder results in a concussion. According to Wikipedia, Morneau was hit in the head in April, 2005. Good memory -- I don't even recall that happening. Add that to the list, then.

[Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] To say that Justin Morneau has been locked in the past few games is an understatement. How does 7-for-14 with 3 home runs and a double sound? If this was the regular season, we'd be beginning a campaign for Morneau to win the AL Player of the Week Award. Although these were only Spring Training games, his offensive performance was meaningful in the larger scheme of things. By "larger scheme," of course, I'm referring to Morneau's health. We learned over the past several days that what many thought about as a possibility is now a probable outcome, namely, that Morneau will at least begin the season as the Twins' designated hitter and will not be starting at first base. On the one hand, it's a little bit disappointing that the risk of further concussions is always going to factor into Morneau's assignments. On the other hand, though, at least it provides a little bit of certainty for now. We know where Morneau stands, and he's been remarkably candid. Here's just a small portion of what he said to Pioneer Press reporter John Shipley, when asked about playing first base: "Whatever's going to keep me in the lineup, and I know, I said it this spring, too, `if I'm well enough to play, I'm well enough to play first.' I think I have to say that to get myself ready to play the season, and obviously the goal is to play first and be able to, but in the end, like I said, it's going to be about being able to have at-bats. Whatever's going to allow me to have 600-plus at-bats and be healthy enough to play 162 games without, you know, playing two days and needing a day off, or whatever it is. We're not going to go through that whole up-and-down and all the rest of it. I think I can help this team by playing first, but I help us more by being in the lineup every day." [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container] http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zfYsHBVM6W0/T3PbIwzCwqI/AAAAAAAAANg/hoeMT6loJ5U/s320/JM+Fielding.jpg [TD=class: tr-caption]As it stands now, this could be a rare sight in 2012 [/TD] [/TABLE] I think Morneau is correct in the sense that -- if you had to choose one or the other -- his 600-plus plate appearances are more important to the club than his defense at first (though he worked hard to become a great defensive first baseman). Reading between the lines, DHing sounds like a rational decision for at least two reasons: first, as Morneau said, it will be easier on his body to only hit and not play the field; second, and perhaps more importantly, it will reduce the chances of Morneau suffering another concussion, which likely would end his career. I wonder, though, how much Morneau strictly DHing will actually reduce the chances of him suffering a concussion? In his Twins career, of course, Morneau has suffered two concussions. The first happened in July, 2010, when he slid into the knee of Toronto Blue Jays infielder John McDonald, and the second took place in August, 2011, in a seemingly innocuous play when Morneau, playing first, dove for a ground ball. The resulting concussion was strange because Morneau didn't even hit his head on the ground, but the fall was significant enough to jar his brain to the point that it resulted in another concussion. The more we are understanding concussions now, the more we are realizing that, once a person has suffered one concussion, they are much more likely (perhaps up to four times) to sustain another concussion. It's a repeat of Morneau's second concussion that the Twins are trying to avoid, as well as other injuries that could be sustained while he plays the field. How about this play back in 2007, when a Nick Punto throw to first took a funny hop and hit Morneau in the nose, fracturing it. What five years ago was "only" a fracture, today would almost certainly result in a more serious brain injury to Morneau. If you count the fractured nose, Morneau has suffered three head/face injuries in his baseball career: two while playing the field and one while running the bases. For the sake of argument, let's say that in 2012 Morneau gets 600 plate appearances and gets on base 35 percent of the time, which would be in line with his career on-base percentage. That means that Morneau will get on base approximately 210 times. Lets subtract 25 of those times on base for home runs. So we're left with 185 times during the season in which Morneau will have to run the bases, and will be exposed to such things as line drives coming at him at first and third, having to execute take-out slides to second, diving back to first to avoid a pick-off, and possibly having to go hard into home plate to score an important run (I'm hoping the Twins caution Morneau not to try to run over the catcher). 185 times on the bases sounds like a manageable number. Add that 185 to the number of plate appearances, 600, in which Morneau will face the unlikely, but still notable, prospect of a beaning, a strange foul ball that ricochets off of home plate, or any other number of unlikely scenarios that could lead to injury. So if Morneau just serves as DH this season, we're left with about 785 times in which Morneau will put himself out there, so to speak. In 2008, Morneau played 155 games at first, and had 1,409 defensive chances, which are defined as putouts + assists + errors. When I read that now, in light of everything that Morneau has gone through the past 20 months, all I can think is that, by avoiding playing the field -- at least for now -- Morneau is avoiding 1,409 chances of suffering another concussion. He won't have to field errant throws (even though Punto isn't around to break other of Morneau's facial bones), dive for grounders, react to 100 mile per hour line drives hit his way, catch pickoff throws from Francisco Liriano, or teeter precariously on the edge of the dugout stairs attempting to catch a foul pop-up. Chris Parmelee, Ryan Doumit and Joe Mauer can do all those things -- not as well as Morneau -- but well enough for right now to get the Twins through. That same 2008 season, Morneau had 712 plate appearances, and reached base 233 times (he hit 23 home runs, so we'll subtract that number to remain consistent). In addition to the 1,409 defensive chances, that's another 922 chances on the offensive side. In total, then, in 2008 Morneau accumulated 2,331 plays, plate appearances and times on the basepaths. Even though these calculations are rough and imperfect, you don't have to be a mathematician to see the difference between 2,331 and 785, and to understand why the Twins and Morneau, for right now, prefer that lower number. The other significant part of this equation -- perhaps the added benefit -- is that Morneau could have a fantastic offensive season. I have always wondered what Joe Mauer could do if he only had to focus on batting. Yes, his best value, far and away, is at catcher, and I know he likes controlling the game, but it's interesting to ponder what he could do as a "professional hitter." Morneau will have that opportunity. His knees and wrists won't be as achy, the bumps and bruises will be fewer, and I imagine he will have more time to devote to batting work and video review than he would during a traditional season. If Morneau can get into the rhythm of being a full-time DH, he could be great in that role. As a final note, I want to talk about Morneau's value. Some fans, probably not too many that have found their way to this little blog, are going to argue that Morneau isn't worth the $14 million the Twins will pay him in 2012 and 2013 if he is only DHing. If you believe that "value" can be computed, Fangraphs indicates that, last season, when Morneau tried to make everything work, he was worth -.3 wins above replacement, and had a value of -$1.3 million. A negative value. As a full-time DH, if Morneau has a successful and healthy season, he could definitely "earn" his salary. For comparison, Red Sox slugger David Ortiz, who had a great season in 2011 (.309/.398/.554 with 29 HR and 96 RBIs), was worth $18.8 million. Morneau wouldn't have to quite approach those numbers to break even for the Twins this season. As it stands, the Twins and Morneau have a plan that will hopefully allow him to play in almost every game, accumulate 600+ plate appearances and focus exclusively on hitting, for right now. Certainly, everything is subject to change, but this fan thinks that, all things considered, DHing Morneau is the safest -- and likely the most productive -- use of his talents. It certainly wasn't "Plan A," or probably even "Plan B," but who among us, in our personal or professional lives, hasn't had to go to "Plan C" in order to try and make things work?

[Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] To say that Justin Morneau has been locked in the past few games is an understatement. How does 7-for-14 with 3 home runs and a double sound? If this was the regular season, we'd be beginning a campaign for Morneau to win the AL Player of the Week Award. Although these were only Spring Training games, his offensive performance was meaningful in the larger scheme of things. By "larger scheme," of course, I'm referring to Morneau's health. We learned over the past several days that what many thought about as a possibility is now a probable outcome, namely, that Morneau will at least begin the season as the Twins' designated hitter and will not be starting at first base. On the one hand, it's a little bit disappointing that the risk of further concussions is always going to factor into Morneau's assignments. On the other hand, though, at least it provides a little bit of certainty for now. We know where Morneau stands, and he's been remarkably candid. Here's just a small portion of what he said to Pioneer Press reporter John Shipley, when asked about playing first base: "Whatever's going to keep me in the lineup, and I know, I said it this spring, too, `if I'm well enough to play, I'm well enough to play first.' I think I have to say that to get myself ready to play the season, and obviously the goal is to play first and be able to, but in the end, like I said, it's going to be about being able to have at-bats. Whatever's going to allow me to have 600-plus at-bats and be healthy enough to play 162 games without, you know, playing two days and needing a day off, or whatever it is. We're not going to go through that whole up-and-down and all the rest of it. I think I can help this team by playing first, but I help us more by being in the lineup every day." [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container] http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zfYsHBVM6W0/T3PbIwzCwqI/AAAAAAAAANg/hoeMT6loJ5U/s320/JM+Fielding.jpg [TD=class: tr-caption]As it stands now, this could be a rare sight in 2012 [/TD] [/TABLE] I think Morneau is correct in the sense that -- if you had to choose one or the other -- his 600-plus plate appearances are more important to the club than his defense at first (though he worked hard to become a great defensive first baseman). Reading between the lines, DHing sounds like a rational decision for at least two reasons: first, as Morneau said, it will be easier on his body to only hit and not play the field; second, and perhaps more importantly, it will reduce the chances of Morneau suffering another concussion, which likely would end his career. I wonder, though, how much Morneau strictly DHing will actually reduce the chances of him suffering a concussion? In his Twins career, of course, Morneau has suffered two concussions. The first happened in July, 2010, when he slid into the knee of Toronto Blue Jays infielder John McDonald, and the second took place in August, 2011, in a seemingly innocuous play when Morneau, playing first, dove for a ground ball. The resulting concussion was strange because Morneau didn't even hit his head on the ground, but the fall was significant enough to jar his brain to the point that it resulted in another concussion. The more we are understanding concussions now, the more we are realizing that, once a person has suffered one concussion, they are much more likely (perhaps up to four times) to sustain another concussion. It's a repeat of Morneau's second concussion that the Twins are trying to avoid, as well as other injuries that could be sustained while he plays the field. How about this play back in 2007, when a Nick Punto throw to first took a funny hop and hit Morneau in the nose, fracturing it. What five years ago was "only" a fracture, today would almost certainly result in a more serious brain injury to Morneau. If you count the fractured nose, Morneau has suffered three head/face injuries in his baseball career: two while playing the field and one while running the bases. For the sake of argument, let's say that in 2012 Morneau gets 600 plate appearances and gets on base 35 percent of the time, which would be in line with his career on-base percentage. That means that Morneau will get on base approximately 210 times. Lets subtract 25 of those times on base for home runs. So we're left with 185 times during the season in which Morneau will have to run the bases, and will be exposed to such things as line drives coming at him at first and third, having to execute take-out slides to second, diving back to first to avoid a pick-off, and possibly having to go hard into home plate to score an important run (I'm hoping the Twins caution Morneau not to try to run over the catcher). 185 times on the bases sounds like a manageable number. Add that 185 to the number of plate appearances, 600, in which Morneau will face the unlikely, but still notable, prospect of a beaning, a strange foul ball that ricochets off of home plate, or any other number of unlikely scenarios that could lead to injury. So if Morneau just serves as DH this season, we're left with about 785 times in which Morneau will put himself out there, so to speak. In 2008, Morneau played 155 games at first, and had 1,409 defensive chances, which are defined as putouts + assists + errors. When I read that now, in light of everything that Morneau has gone through the past 20 months, all I can think is that, by avoiding playing the field -- at least for now -- Morneau is avoiding 1,409 chances of suffering another concussion. He won't have to field errant throws (even though Punto isn't around to break other of Morneau's facial bones), dive for grounders, react to 100 mile per hour line drives hit his way, catch pickoff throws from Francisco Liriano, or teeter precariously on the edge of the dugout stairs attempting to catch a foul pop-up. Chris Parmelee, Ryan Doumit and Joe Mauer can do all those things -- not as well as Morneau -- but well enough for right now to get the Twins through. That same 2008 season, Morneau had 712 plate appearances, and reached base 233 times (he hit 23 home runs, so we'll subtract that number to remain consistent). In addition to the 1,409 defensive chances, that's another 922 chances on the offensive side. In total, then, in 2008 Morneau accumulated 2,331 plays, plate appearances and times on the basepaths. Even though these calculations are rough and imperfect, you don't have to be a mathematician to see the difference between 2,331 and 785, and to understand why the Twins and Morneau, for right now, prefer that lower number. The other significant part of this equation -- perhaps the added benefit -- is that Morneau could have a fantastic offensive season. I have always wondered what Joe Mauer could do if he only had to focus on batting. Yes, his best value, far and away, is at catcher, and I know he likes controlling the game, but it's interesting to ponder what he could do as a "professional hitter." Morneau will have that opportunity. His knees and wrists won't be as achy, the bumps and bruises will be fewer, and I imagine he will have more time to devote to batting work and video review than he would during a traditional season. If Morneau can get into the rhythm of being a full-time DH, he could be great in that role. As a final note, I want to talk about Morneau's value. Some fans, probably not too many that have found their way to this little blog, are going to argue that Morneau isn't worth the $14 million the Twins will pay him in 2012 and 2013 if he is only DHing. If you believe that "value" can be computed, Fangraphs indicates that, last season, when Morneau tried to make everything work, he was worth -.3 wins above replacement, and had a value of -$1.3 million. A negative value. As a full-time DH, if Morneau has a successful and healthy season, he could definitely "earn" his salary. For comparison, Red Sox slugger David Ortiz, who had a great season in 2011 (.309/.398/.554 with 29 HR and 96 RBIs), was worth $18.8 million. Morneau wouldn't have to quite approach those numbers to break even for the Twins this season. As it stands, the Twins and Morneau have a plan that will hopefully allow him to play in almost every game, accumulate 600+ plate appearances and focus exclusively on hitting, for right now. Certainly, everything is subject to change, but this fan thinks that, all things considered, DHing Morneau is the safest -- and likely the most productive -- use of his talents. It certainly wasn't "Plan A," or probably even "Plan B," but who among us, in our personal or professional lives, hasn't had to go to "Plan C" in order to try and make things work?

They must be OPS.

I think you're onto something with that last sentence -- just like we have Wins Above Replacement, and Replacement Level players in baseball (Drew Butera), do we have a replacement level Twins reporter in MN, one that could be replaced by one of the bloggers?

I think he'll end up with 2,800 or so MLB hits. For me, that puts him in. It'll be curious, though, because I don't think he'll go in on the first ballot. Some of those voters -- the old codgers -- won't even consider anything he did in Japan, even the fact that it resulted in a later MLB debut. I bet he'll go in the second or third year of eligibility, though.

Herrmann is headed back to New Britain.

Wow, I regret missing this (sort of). As a blogger, the best test for accountability and the quality of the product is when I put out a post and no one reads it. That's pretty good incentive to step it up next time. Just because there's no boss overseeing the work product, I think most bloggers try to do a solid job, if for no other reason than to avoid embarrassment. John, I read the City Pages article. Thanks for holding your own there!

I think Morneau's on a quest to bat .300 by the end of ST.

Was anyone on base for Morneau?