DelusionalTwinsFan

In April, no one expected the Minnesota Twins to be here. Even the loftiest of expectations had this club somewhere around 80 wins and simply keeping things interesting. On September 27, 2017 however, the Twins punched their ticket to the Postseason. Reflecting on that, and the season that has been, only invokes a certain level of awe.
 
Coming off 103 losses, the Twins are the first team ever to go from losing 100 or more games only to make the playoffs the following season. That means, not only did the organization add the number one overall pick in Royce Lewis this year, but they've also played meaningful baseball for the entirety of the schedule. While this group was expected to make waves, the thought was that 2018 looked like the opportune time for the window to open.
 
Don't tell guys like Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, or Eddie Rosario that they weren't supposed to be here yet however. That trio had went through ups and downs this year, eventually leading to breakout seasons, and ignited the bats on any given night. Joe Mauer wasn't supposed to flash like his old self, and there were questions as to whether or not Brian Dozier would even be in Minnesota this season. Suggesting everything happens for a reason is about as simplistic as it gets. For now though, it works.
 
On Tuesday October 3, Paul Molitor will field a playoff team for Minnesota. That will be the first time the Twins organization can say that since October 9, 2010. While they'll have a monumental task ahead of them, knocking off the Yankees on the road, the culmination of all the excitement suggest we've made it. The appointment TV, tense at bats, and champagne popping have all been the highlights of the last month or so in Twins Territory.
 
Count the Twins out against the mighty Yankees if you must, but I can assure you this group doesn't care about narratives. Youth or veterans, these guys could care less about what the Twins of yesteryear carved out. They'll go into New York with more than a fighting chance, and in a one game scenario, anything is bound to happen.
 
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With just a few games left in the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins fate is all but decided. Paul Molitor's group is going to represent the AL Central in the Wild Card game, and it appears they'll take on the Evil Empire of the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Knowing this organization is coming off 103 losses a year ago, it's somewhat astounding to look at how we arrived here.
 
Not needing too much of a deep dive into the analytical side of things, this Twins club has plenty of eye-popping numbers at its disposal. Whether looking at snapshots of the season that has been, or taking a top down view from the entire 162, it's hard not to be impressed. Here's a handful of numbers that will threaten the safety of your jaw:

82 wins (and counting)- Coming off 103 losses, the Twins already have a turnaround of 23 games. That's tied for the best turnaround in club history (a 1965 team that lost in the World Series), and is almost certainly a number that will be added to across the final six games of the year. With an over/under set in Vegas at 74.5 prior to the season, Minnesota surpassed that mark with 18 games to spare.
+96 run differential- Through August and September (up until the 25th), Minnesota has completely flipped the script in the run scoring department. At a -72 run differential on August 1st, the Twins have ripped off two of their best hitting months of the year. Outscoring opponents by nearly 100 runs across their last 53 games, the club now owns a Pythagorean W/L that sits at 80-76 (a mark unfathomable even a few weeks ago).
92.1%- The total jump in percentage that the Minnesota Twins playoff odds have taken since August 1st. Forced to decide their fate prior to the trade deadline, the Twins had just a 5.6% chance on July 31st. At 50-53, they were 4.5 games back in the AL Wild Card. In needing to make a decision, the club flipped closer Brandon Kintzler and rental starter Jaime Garcia, for some solid future pieces. Today their playoff odds rest at 97.7%.
199 home runs- With their next longball, the Twins will surpass the 200 HR plateau. Having done so in back-to-back seasons, they'll have accomplished that feat for the first time since the 1963/64 seasons. As of August 29, they were on pace for just 197. Right now, four players have at least 20 homers, which is the first time Minnesota has reached that mark since 2009. If Max Kepler can add one more, the Twins will have five 20 HR players for the first time since 1986.
96.4% Stolen Base efficiency- Byron Buxton has stolen 27 of the 28 bases he's attempted to swipe this year. The one in which he was thrown out, he overslid the base. At the time of his 24th steal, I checked into his efficiency. Since 1946, 1,483 players had stolen at least 24 bases in a season. Only five had been thrown out just once. Now 27 of 28, that group has gotten even smaller.
Multi-position Gold Glove Winner- At the conclusion of 2017, Joe Mauer will look to join Placido Polanco and Darin Erstad as the only players to win Gold Glove awards at multiple positions. He'll be the first to do so at catcher and first base. Currently, Mauer ranks 1st among AL first basemen in UZR, UZR/150, and RngR. His 5 DRS checks in third. While teammate Byron Buxton is a guarantee to win the Gold Glove in CF, it would be a major upset if Mauer didn't take the award at 1B.
24 DRS- In 2017, Buxton's current 24 defensive runs saved are the highest number by any Twins outfielder since tracking began in the early 2000s. Denard Span posted a 19 DRS mark in 2012, and Torii Hunter's high water mark was 18 DRS in 2004. Despite scuffling at the plate, Buxton has been a game changer all season in the Minnesota outfield.
Five- That's the amount of regular position players that the Twins have in their every day lineup age 25 and younger. Over half of their regular order has yet to reach a level where they would be considered and established big league veteran. Jose Berrios and Adalberto Mejia fall into this category on the pitching side. With prime's still in the future, there's plenty of reason to believe we've yet to see the best of what's to come.

No matter how 2017 ends, and how far into October this club gets, looking back on what's been a fun year should provide plenty of excitement for what's ahead. Meaningful baseball was played for virtually the entire 162 game slate, and down the stretch, Minnesota has been appointment viewing. This club is trending in an upward direction, and among a division that has plenty of holes, that should put the rest of the league on notice.
 
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On September 18, 2017 Byron Buxton owns a .258/.320/.430 slash line for the Minnesota Twins. While there's little to write home about a .749 OPS, it's well past time to take note of what the hometown squad's centerfielder is doing. Despite a September surge in 2016, we haven't seen anything like this from Buxton before, and he's already vaulting himself into the conversation of the best the Twins have ever seen.
 
Looking at his 2017 as a whole, it's easily apparent that everything has been watered down due to such a slow start. What's less apparent without digging under the hood, is just how incredible he's been since. Rather than getting words in the way, let's allow the numbers to speak for themselves:
Since May 14: 99 G .284/.341/.481
Since the All Star Break (July 14): 46 G .323/.369/.622
Since August 6th: 40 G .333/.375/.653

What we see here, is an incredible surge over a relatively decent sample size. Extrapolating Buxton's numbers from the All Star Break over 162 games, we arrive at 21 doubles, 18 triples, 39 homers, 106 RBI, and 35 stolen bases. In other words, Buxton sustaining a 46 game second half over the course of a full season has his walking away with an MVP award (and that's even before considering his defense).
 
While it's fair to still hold out for a little more of a sustained sample, this isn't simply a replication of a September 2016 performance against watered down competition. Buxton has been raking against good pitchers, across multiple scenarios, for multiple months. Over the course of 2017, working with new hitting coach James Rowson, the Twins centerfielder rebuilt his swing at the big league level while never taking a trip back to Triple-A. The long and short of Buxton's transformation has been nothing short of incredible. Now reaping the fruits of his labor, he's flashing all of the tools that made him the top prospect in all of baseball.
 
It wouldn't be fair to solely focus in on Buxton's offense, even if that's where the most growth has come from. In the field, he's all but ran away with the American League CF Gold Glove award. Leading all fielders not named Mookie Betts in DRS, Buxton has bailed pitchers out with both his arm strength and his range. Looking at Baseball Savant (Statcast), Buxton still tops the charts across MLB in 4 star outs. With a catch probability registering between 26-50%, Buxton has had 27 opportunities, converting 26 of them into outs.
 
Things get even more nutty as you look at the newly introduced Outs Above Average metric. With 24 OAA, Buxton's individual total comes in ahead of every single team in the big leagues, with the closest number being the Rays 20 OAA. On balls Buxton can make a play on, he's been deemed to have an 86% expected catch rate, and in turn, has owned a 92% actual catch rate. When balls are put in Buxton's vicinity in the Twins outfield, he's added a 6% catch probability. Over the course of 2017, that in part, goes to illustrate why Twins pitchers have seen an uptick in their own numbers.
 
Simply put, Buxton has been the premier outfielder in all of Major League Baseball for virtually the entirety of 2017. When he's in centerfield, it's impossible not to see him as a game changing asset. What's changed, is that since the middle of the year, he's also become an incredible threat at the plate (and in turn on the basepaths). Instead of simply being a Gold Glove winner on an annual basis, this version of Byron Buxton is in the Most Valuable Player realm.
 
At just 23 years old, there's probably more to Buxton than we've seen thus far. For everyone else across the league, that's a scary thought to wrestle with. For those in Twins Territory, the only appropriate result is Buck Yeah!
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz