Yankees Weaknesses: Pitching

The Yankees Are Not A Great Pitching Staff

We’re sweating the Twins pitching staff, which ended the regular season with a 4.18 ERA, fifth best in the American League. The Yankees staff is a touch further down the ladder, with a 4.31 ERA and sixth best in the AL. And like the Twins, the starting rotation (which had a 4.51 ERA) has some big question marks as it enters the postseason.

The biggest has to be Luis Severino, the 25-year-old phenom whom Twins fans might remember from the American League Wild Card game – provided they didn’t show up fifteen minutes late and miss the entire out he got. His postseason experience would normally be the big question mark, given that he has a 6.26 ERA in six postseason games, and has only made it through the fifth inning once.

But there’s a bigger concern. Severino has only pitched three games this year after missing most of the season with a shoulder and lat injury. He only started making rehab appearances a month ago. A couple of his games have been very good, a couple he’s had trouble keeping people off base, and in every case he’s had a short leash, topping out at 80 pitches.

Masahiro Tanaka, the likely Game 3 starter, has been equally enigmatic. He finished the regular season with a 4.45 ERA. He can throw a gem, such as a complete game shutout of the Rays on June 17th. Twelve days later versus Boston he didn’t get out of the first, and a month later he gave up 12(!!!) earned runs in a single game. His biggest strength is that he usually provides innings; he lasted through six innings or more in 21 of his 32 starts. That could be important in a series where so much could depend on the bullpens performing well.

His biggest weakness? He shares it with a few other Yankees….

The Yankees Give Up Home Runs

The Yankees starting rotation gave up 152 home runs this season, third worst in the American League. The Bomba Squad hit the most in the history of MLB. Unstoppable force, meet … pretty movable object.

The Yankees probable Game 1 starter is 30-year-old southpaw James Paxton, who is a helluva good pitcher with two limitations that keep him from being among the game’s best. First, he has never pitched more than 160.1 innings in a season. Second, he gives up a lot of home runs to right-handed hitters. This year he gave up 23 home runs in 150.2 innings, which is slightly better than average this crazy year. But of those 23, 21 of them were to right-handed hitters.

The Twins, of course, have a lot of right-handed hitters that like to hit home runs. Miguel Sano. Nelson Cruz. Mitch Garver. Even Jonathon Schoop and CJ Cron will likely find themselves in the lineup against Paxton.

The Yankees, of course, are also aware of this. One reason Paxton might be lined up to pitch Game 1 and Game 5 for the Yankees is that they’re both being played at Yankee Stadium. Yankee Stadium is known as a ballpark that gives up a lot of home runs, but the truth is the shortest porch is in right field, favoring left-handed batters. The Yankees might feel Paxton has a better chance keeping big right-handed bats in check in Yankee Stadium than in Target Field, where the ball tends to fly out down the left field line.

Paxton is not alone. Tanaka has had trouble with home runs his entire career. J.A. Happ, the left-handed starter whose role in the ALDS has yet to be determined, gave up 34(!) home runs in 161.1 innings. CC Sabathia was even worse this year, posting double the league-average home run rate.

The bullpen is another story, but a little top heavy. The Yankees top three relievers, Aroldis Chapman, Adam Ottavino and Zack Britton are extremely stingy with the long ball. But the guys likely to eat up some middle innings, Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle, have been susceptible.

So the strategy is similar to facing just about any MLB team. When the Twins get a couple of ducks on the pond versus the starting pitcher, they need to take advantage. If Yankees manager Aaron Boone pulls a starter early, feast on the middle innings. There will likely not be much available late in the game.

In other words, when you come at the king, don’t miss. The Bomba Squad for most of the season, hasn’t.