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    Reflecting On The Draft 1 Month Later


    Nick Nelson

    Nearly one month after the Minnesota Twins surprisingly selected Royce Lewis with the No. 1 pick in the MLB Draft, their decision has come into clearer focus... and is only looking better with hindsight.

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    Sure, it helps that Lewis has been tearing it up since joining the pro ranks, with a .303/.395/.515 slash line through eight games in the Gulf Coast League. But in addition to looking at who the Twins did pick, it is interesting to look at who they didn't pick.

    Whereas Lewis signed for a $6.725 million bonus, about $1 million below the slot for their top selection, the other three candidates the Twins were weighing have proven significantly more costly.

    Around the time of the draft, reports suggested that Minnesota soured on Brendan McKay because they didn't like his asking price. As it turns out, McKay signed with Tampa for $7,007,500 -- the highest bonus ever since MLB's new slot system was implemented in 2012. He narrowly edged Kyle Wright, whose $7 million pact with Atlanta briefly held that same distinction.

    Meanwhile, as the signing deadline bears down (4 PM Friday), the Reds still have not reached agreement with No. 2 pick Hunter Greene, and while it is expected to get done, his deal could surpass both McKay and Wright.

    Now, the point here isn't that the Twins could not have afforded any of these three, but doing so would have meant committing unprecedented money to players they never seemed all that sold on. Instead, by opting for Lewis, they pocketed extra cash that they were able to spread to later picks, and it sure looks like they still found themselves a hell of a player.

    The new front office was under the microscope for its first draft -- with good reason, given the immense stakes -- and so far all signs reflect positively upon their decision-making. But of course, it will be a long while before we can form any real conclusions about the effectiveness of their approach.

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    That's actually higher than I would have guessed, although maybe most of them are of the "going over a couple thousand dollars" variety.

     

    But if a team were to use it for more than that, since the overage is 5%, it's a greater advantage for teams with big bonus pools.  The Twins this year were allowed $707k extra without losing future picks; the Cardinals had ~$108k.  It's too bad there isn't a more detailed breakdown, to see what teams are exceeding it and by how much.

     

    Have the Twins gone over at all?  We've had a pretty large bonus pool in 5 of 6 drafts now.

     

    I've tried looking into it more in the past because I was curious about the same thing, but I haven't been able to find a "one-stop-shop" that shows it. Probably would have to look into each team individually.

     

    But my gut tells me the teams with lower pools are the ones paying the tax. (less money means they've been having success in the MLB season, and it is more likely they are the big budget teams who may not care)

     

    I do not believe the Twins have ever gone over. Pretty certain I've seen that before.




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