Lay fits the profile of a potential bonus pool savings pick as a fourth-year college senior, but he's also a pitcher who has steadily improved throughout his college career. The 6-foot-3, 230-pound right-hander struggled during his freshman season at Chico State, posting a 6.10 ERA and 1.72 WHIP while battling inconsistent command and allowing too much hard contact.

Everything changed during his sophomore season. Lay cut his ERA to 3.74 and issued only eight walks in 55 1/3 innings, showing the type of strike-throwing ability that has become a hallmark of many Twins pitching prospects. That breakout prompted a transfer to Sacramento State, where he became the Saturday starter in 2025. He logged 76 innings with a 3.55 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 66 strikeouts and only 16 walks. While he still surrendered more than a hit per inning and uncorked eight wild pitches, the overall trend was encouraging enough to return for his senior season after going undrafted.

Promoted to the Friday night role in 2026, Lay took another step forward. His strikeout rate climbed from 20.6% to 24.7% while lowering his walk rate from 5.0% to 4.3%. He attacks hitters with a four-pitch mix, relying more on pitchability than overpowering velocity. The Twins have had success developing college pitchers with command and feel for multiple offerings, making Lay another intriguing arm for their pitching development staff.