A Tale of Two Gibsons

Twins Video

Kyle Gibson was lights out last night as he held the Mariners scoreless over six innings of work. He scattered 7 hits, but only walked one batter while striking out three to turn in his 8^th dominate performance on the year, improving his overall record to 8 wins, 7 losses.

The problem is, there doesn’t seem to be any middle ground when it comes to Gibson’s starts. Either he’s lights out, like he was last night in Seattle (6.0IP, 7H, 0ER, 1BB, 3K) or he’s knocked out, like his outing against the Yankees on July 4^th (2.0 IP, 6H, 5ER, 1BB, 0K).

One or two starts with such a variance wouldn’t mean much. Starters have bad outings, even staff ace Phil Hughes has thrown a clunker or two this season. Gibson, however, isn’t just having "one or two" all or nothing starts. Seemingly every start is defined by the all or nothing principal.

Take a look at the splits:

[TABLE]

Split

SO/W

OBP

SLG

OPS

GDP

HBP

IBB

ROE

BAbip

tOPS+

sOPS+

in Wins

216

198

[/TD]

1.65

.207

.270

.247

.517

.237

in Losses

136

124

1.33

.379

.419

.621

1.040

.385

213

125

in No Dec.

4.33

.147

.183

.191

.374

.182

[/TABLE]

That’s a startling difference. He’s essentially allowing opposing batters to hit 170 points better in average in losses while seeing opponent’s OPS double (!) Obviously, in a loss, starters are going to post worse numbers than they do in wins, but they splits are not typically this wide or dramatic.

Initially it looked like Gibson’s struggles were attributable to home / road splits. In his home starts since the beginning of the season, Gibson has had only two "clunkers"

Home Starts:

[TABLE]

Date

[TD=width: 31%]Innings

[TD=width: 45%]Earned Runs

[/TD]

[TD=width: 23%]4/11

[/TD]

[TD=width: 31%]6.1

[/TD]

[TD=width: 45%]1

[/TD]

[TD=width: 23%]4/17

[/TD]

[TD=width: 31%]8.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 45%][/TD]

[TD=width: 23%]4/30

[/TD]

[TD=width: 31%]6.2

[/TD]

[TD=width: 45%]5

[/TD]

[TD=width: 23%]5/16

[/TD]

[TD=width: 31%]7.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 45%]1

[/TD]

[TD=width: 23%]5/28

[/TD]

[TD=width: 31%]6.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 45%][/TD]

[TD=width: 23%]6/7

[/TD]

[TD=width: 31%]7.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 45%][/TD]

[TD=width: 23%]7/4

[/TD]

[TD=width: 31%]2.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 45%]5

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

While his road starts have been a bit rougher:

Road Starts:

[TABLE]

Date

[TD=width: 38%]Innings

[/TD]

[TD=width: 34%]Earned Runs

[/TD]

[TD=width: 29%]4/5

[/TD]

[TD=width: 38%]5.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 34%]1

[/TD]

[TD=width: 29%]4/22

[/TD]

[TD=width: 38%]3.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 34%]7

[/TD]

[TD=width: 29%]5/5

[/TD]

[TD=width: 38%]7.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 34%][/TD]

[TD=width: 29%]5/10

[/TD]

[TD=width: 38%]2.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 34%]6

[/TD]

[TD=width: 29%]5/23

[/TD]

[TD=width: 38%]5.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 34%]5

[/TD]

[TD=width: 29%]6/2

[/TD]

[TD=width: 38%]6.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 34%]4

[/TD]

[TD=width: 29%]6/13

[/TD]

[TD=width: 38%]7.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 34%][/TD]

[TD=width: 29%]6/18

[/TD]

[TD=width: 38%]7.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 34%][/TD]

[TD=width: 29%]6/24

[/TD]

[TD=width: 38%]2.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 34%]7

[/TD]

[TD=width: 29%]6/29

[/TD]

[TD=width: 38%]8.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 34%]2

[/TD]

[TD=width: 29%]7/9

[/TD]

[TD=width: 38%]6.0

[/TD]

[TD=width: 34%][/TD]

[TD=width: 29%]　

[/TD]

[TD=width: 38%]　

[/TD]

[TD=width: 34%]　

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

Early in the season, the solution seemed simple. For whatever reason, Kyle Gibson struggled away from Target Field. However, Gibson’s last few starts have made that assessment a bit inaccurate. He’s turned in quality outings in Texas, Boston and Detroit while his last "dud" start came at home.

It’s clearly not as simple as home / road struggles. So, let’s dig a bit deeper. Maybe this is all just a matter of pitch selection?

[TABLE]

Date

[TD=width: 10%]Opp

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]FB%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]FBv

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]SL%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]SLv

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]CB%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]CBv

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]CH%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]CHv

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]7/9/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]@SEA

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]7/4/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]NYY

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]57.70%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]90.9

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]23.10%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]83.7

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]3.90%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]79

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]15.40%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]83.3

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]6/29/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]@TEX

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]67.40%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]92.2

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]24.20%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]85.5

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]2.10%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]80.5

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]6.30%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]84.5

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]6/24/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]@LAA

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]62.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]92.6

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]20.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]85

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]2.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]82

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]16.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]84.1

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]6/18/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]@BOS

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]56.90%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]92.1

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]20.60%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]84.9

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]3.90%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]81

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]18.60%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]84.1

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]6/13/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]@DET

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]60.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]91.5

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]24.60%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]83.9

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]2.70%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]78.3

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]12.70%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]82.5

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]6/7/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]HOU

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]65.10%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]89.9

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]18.90%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]83.8

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]2.80%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]77.3

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]13.20%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]82.1

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]6/2/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]@MIL

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]62.30%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]92.1

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]31.20%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]84.3

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]2.60%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]79

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]3.90%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]83.3

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]5/28/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]TEX

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]67.30%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]91.5

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]20.60%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]84.7

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]5.60%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]79.7

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]6.50%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]82.7

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]5/23/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]@SFG

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]51.40%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]92

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]26.40%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]85.5

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]9.70%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]81

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]12.50%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]83.8

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]5/16/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]SEA

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]68.80%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]90.9

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]12.50%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]84.1

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]1.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]78

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]17.70%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]83.2

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]5/10/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]@DET

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]56.30%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]91.7

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]33.30%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]84.6

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]10.40%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]83.2

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]5/5/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]@CLE

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]69.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]90.5

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]7.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]85.6

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]7.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]79.4

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]17.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]82.7

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]4/30/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]LAD

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]64.40%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]91

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]19.80%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]82.4

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]3.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]79

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]12.90%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]83.2

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]4/22/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]@TBR

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]68.60%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]90.8

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]24.40%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]82.9

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]7.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]82.7

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]4/17/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]TOR

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]80.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]90.9

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]11.40%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]83.7

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]8.60%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]82.9

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]4/11/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]KCR

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]67.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]91.3

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]19.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]83.2

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]3.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]78.7

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]11.00%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]83

[/TD]

[TD=width: 12%]4/5/2014

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]@CLE

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]69.10%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]90.4

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]13.40%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]82

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]17.50%

[/TD]

[TD=width: 10%]81.8

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

That big block of data does have some interesting points. Mainly, in wins, Gibson is using his fastball between 60%-70% while in losses the fastball usage resides closer to 51%-57% of the time. Why is Gibson shying away from his fastball in losses? It looks like he’s struggling to locate the pitch.

Here’s Gibson’s Pitch F/X data from his 7/4 start against the Yankees:

Look at the gray squares, which indicate Gibson’s sinker. As you can see, Gibson struggled to locate his sinker leaving many balls out of the zone. That caused him to fall behind to batters and then come into the zone with a different pitch (since his sinker control was off) – thus resulting in a fireworks performance courtesy of the Yankee bats.

The trend repeats in his 6/24 start against the Angels.

Again, there’s little consistency in the location of his sinker and not surprisingly, the results are very similar to the start against the Yankees.

Finally, look at the Pitch F/X data from his 6/29 start against Texas and the start yesterday against Seattle.

A majority of his sinkers are low in the zone and are grouped nicely. Greater control yielded a better result.

Admittedly, that’s a lot of data to comb over to simply reach the conclusion that Gibson is better when he can control his pitches. That policy applies to every starter in the league (outside of maybe Sam Deduno who in fact may be better when he has no idea where the ball is going). What’s startling is just how dramatic the results are when Gibson is struggling with control and when he’s on.

Every starter will battle control issues from time to time and even the best starters get knocked around a bit, but I don’t know that I’ve ever scene a player as all or nothing as Kyle Gibson. Hopefully, Gibson can improve on these results as he continues to learn and grow. He’ll need to learn how to pitch when his best stuff just isn’t with him – even Kevin Correia and Ricky Nolasco can turn in quality outings when their command is evading them. It seems like Gibson’s struggles may simple be because he hasn’t figured out how to work with what he has on any given night. Hopefully as he pitches further into the season, he’ll figure things out and we’ll stop seeing so many "boom or busts" starts from the Twins’ righty.