PogueBear

I love baseball. It's the one sport where a nerd, such as myself, can get lost in the numbers and think they know something others do not. What do I (think I) know? Well, if the Twins continue to over-achieve for one or two more weeks, and then merely regress to the team everyone thinks they are...they'll be right in the thick of the Wild Card race come September.
 
I know, I know, I'm either WAY TOO OPTIMISTIC or I'm jinxing it. And if that's the case, I should shut up right now. But just for the sake of adding another blog entry, hear me out...
 
This winter I texted some friends that the Twins "could actually be good this year" based on the logic that the Twins returned a top 5 American League offense plus the eternally youthful Torii Hunter. Also, the pitching had added depth via Ervin Santana. We just needed a "little luck". I was immediately rebuffed and told that I'm always too optimistic about the Twins (I admittedly am). As if on cue, Santana's suspension happened.
 
However, that luck has arrived in the form of timely RISP hitting and Mike Pelfrey. Thus, the Twins now find themselves with a +19 run differential and an expected Win-Loss record of 19-15, which is exactly the record they have YTD. They have scored 4.65 runs per game and have given up 4.09.
 
So what happens if the Twins regress to the team that history and projected statistics say they should be? Fangraphs has them going 58-70 the rest of the way, scoring 4.21 runs per game and giving up 4.67 runs against per game, and finishing with a 77-85 record. Hey, I'll take that after 4 straight 90-loss seasons!!
 
But what if?
 
What if the Twins implement what I'd like to call "The Annexation of Puerto Rico" (thank you Little Giants) and continue to over-achieve for the next couple weeks?! I don't care how they do it. "The Annexation" could be Pelfrey pulling another couple quality starts out his bum or Torii Hunter continuing to defy Father Time. It doesn't matter. IF the Twins add another 3 or 4 games above .500, THEY'RE RIGHT IN IT!!
 
The top AL teams are the Yankees, Tigers, and Royals based on YTD record and projected remaining season, according to fangraphs. Here are their projected records: 88-74, 86-76, and 84-78. Say the Twins rattle off 4 straight and get to 23-15 and then finish with the .451 winning percentage fangraphs says they should , the Twins go 81-81, a mere 3 games behind the Royals.
 
This race is wide open. It's time to implement "The Annexation of Puerto Rico."

Kyle Gibson is elite...when it comes to ground ball pitchers. And that's a good thing.
 
According to Baseball Nation, a ground ball pitcher is a type of pitcher that has a tendency to induce ground balls from opposing batters. The average ground ball pitcher has a ground ball rate of at least 50% with extreme ground ball pitchers maintaining a ground ball rate of around 55%.
 
In his brief MLB career, Gibson has consistently proven he is a top 20 pitcher at inducing ground balls. Gibson had a GB% of 54.4% in 2014 and currently has a 51.9 GB% thus far in 2015. Those numbers definitely meet Baseball Nation's definition of a ground ball pitcher. Gibson tied for 7th out of all MLB qualifying pitchers in 2014 with a 2.05 GB/FB ratio and just to prove he's consistent, he currently has a 2.00 GB/FB ratio in 2015, which put him 16th.
 
Baseball analysts and sabermetricians prefer ground ball pitchers than those with fly ball tendencies for the simple fact that ground balls cannot immediately be turned into runs; i.e. ground balls cannot leave the ballpark. Furthermore, outcomes for ground balls are far more favorable than those of fly balls. While OBP is slightly higher for grounders than flies, the average OPS for all grounders in 2013 was .483 as compared to .834 for fly balls. Ground balls own the lowest weighted on-base average (wOBA) when compared to liners and flies, and it's not even close (.213 vs .681 and .346 for grounders compared to liners and flies, respectively).
 
Unfortunately, Gibson will never be an ace because he doesn't strike enough batters out. Strikeouts are the most effective tool a pitcher can utilize in order to avoid big innings due to the ball not being put into play. Too much can happen on a ground ball, be it a booted play due to a "bad hop", a "seeing eye" single, or a poor throw (Chuck Knoblauch anyone?). Gibson's 3.54 K/9 ratio is the 2nd worst mark for all qualifying pitchers in 2015 and his 5.37 K/9 was 4th worst in 2014.
 
HOWEVER, Gibson's elite ability to induce ground balls results in aggressive, strike-throwing pitching which keeps his pitch- count down, allows him to pitch deeper into games, and ultimately be an effective #2 or #3 starting pitcher for the Twins. I can handle that.