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Blog Entries posted by Secondary User

  1. Secondary User
    It's no secret that the biggest position of need for the Twins is the pitching staff. Sadly, this is a very weak free agent pitching class, and with arms like Santana, Hughes and Gibson still around and reports out that the Twins won't be adding payroll this offseason there doesn't look to be much in the way of room for additions anyway. Looks to be a bleak 2017 led by another dismal performance by the pitching staff. Or is it? What if the first step on the journey to fixing the pitching is a step backwards, as in behind the plate?
     
    Let's start by looking at what Twins catchers from 2015 have done in their careers:
     
    http://i.imgur.com/emwUkcB.png
     
    It's pretty clear that Twins catchers have done their pitchers no favors. Both Centeno and Suzuki continued their career trends of being sub par, if not awful pitch framers. It might seem like a trait that would have minimal impact, but some quick research into the effectiveness of hitters based on count quickly shows the drastic effect stealing a strike or giving one away can have.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/oEkxOXv.png
     
    There's a lot of numbers there, but take particular note of the BA and SLG as the count progresses and you can see the value framing can bring. For instance, After a 1-0 count, hitters hit .271/.382/.457 last year, while after an 0-1 count, hitters hit .223/.266/.352. That's roughly a 20% increase in production based on whether the first pitch gets called a ball or a strike. That's where the value of pitch framing comes from. Putting your pitchers in more favorable counts by stealing strikes and not hurting them by giving them away. When you figure that Suzuki and Centeno were two of the worst pitch framers in the majors this year, and certainly haven't been good throughout their careers, you start to wonder just how much of an effect this may have had on the Twins results.
     
     
    The Twins got their offseason started by signing catcher Jason Castro. Castro's 3yr/$24mil contract is directly tied to his ability as a pitch framer.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/gNEYE4A.png
     
    Over the past three seasons, Baseball Prospectus has rated him as a plus pitch framer. Since 2014, he's been one of the best framers in the league, and when you take the abysmal framing the Twins were getting from Suzuki/Centeno and bring in a genuine plus behind the plate, the potential for some significant improvements without even touching the pitching staff suddenly becomes plausible.
     
    The Catch:
     
    Castro's problem though is pretty offensive splits. Against RHP, Castro hits a respectable .247/.328/.424. But against LHP, that plummets to a .190/.249/.287. So any value Castro brings defensively will be largely offset when the opposing pitcher is a southpaw. So ideally, you'd want to platoon Castro with a catcher who can hit LHP, and also brings good defensive value.
     
     
    ***DISCLAIMER***
     
    I'm about to say something that may have you questioning my qualifications to write even a personal blog comment on this, so for the sake of objectivity, I'm going to remove names.
     
    ***DISCLAIMER***
     
    Player A actually fits the mold quite well. As the graph below shows, Player A has graded out as a superb pitch framer in the minors, and in limited time in the majors, has been a plus framer.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/rfrSKie.png
     
    He has hit LHP to the tune of .253/.301/.390. Nothing to write home about, but for the lesser half of a L/R catching platoon, certainly serviceable. So who is this masked man? John Ryan Murphy. I know, I know, I know. 2015 was awful and just made you question how he ever made it to the major leagues. But looking past a small sample, we see the yin to Castro's yang. The right handed bat that can hold his own against LHP and not cost your pitcher strikes.
     
    Can it be enough to make a meaningful difference? That's what we'll see. The Twins rotation had the worst ERA in the AL by over half a run. The rotation won't be fixed in one move. Jason Castro is not a silver bullet. But this signing embodies a departure from a way of thinking that was often times behind the times.
  2. Secondary User
    So Kevin Jepsen made some interesting points last night after recording his first save for the injured Glen Perkins. He talked about how his changeup was important last night against the two lefties and how early in the year he had relied less on his changeup to lefties, and it was resulting in his left handed splits getting out of control.
     
    For those who missed it, Jepsen worked a one-two-three inning, striking out the side, including left handed hitting Chris Davis and switch hitting (batting left handed against Jepsen) Matt Weiters. In both at bats against lefties, he got ahead in the count by eliciting a swing and miss against his changeup.
    Looking at his pitch usage against lefties over 2014 and 2015, we see that he certainly is using it less this year, than last.
     
    http://i.imgur.com/9WOMMb7.jpg
     
    His splits over that time against lefties were:
    2014: .219/.286/.342/.628 with a 29% K%
    2015: .247/.355/.355/.709 with a 20% K%
     
    Here's what the usages look like before and after the trade:
    http://i.imgur.com/wLFLpRF.jpg
     
    And the corresponding LHB splits:
    Pre-trade:.250/.348/.329/.662 with a 21% K%
    Post-Trade: .188/.316/.188/.503 with a 38% K%
     
    There are some pretty key indicators that suggest that isn't mere happenstance. Neil Allen was the AAA pitching coach for the Rays organization last year, and (as reported by Kevin Wetmore) he contacted former associates in the Rays organization before the trade was made. Allen has also been vocal about increased usage of the changeup in his short tenure with the Twins.
     
    This has the makings of being a prime example of the importance of a strong analytics department. We're working on a SSS right now, but what we're seeing in the SSS is inline with what we've seen from Jepsen in the past. When he's using his changeup to lefties, he's fairly strong against them. Are we continuing to see the emergence of an analytics department that has for too long been woefully nonexistent? Jepsen's success moving forward against lefties will likely be an indication of which way the balance of power is moving.
  3. Secondary User

    Nolasco 9/16

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/QkdrT0E.jpg
     
    My write up is going to be very brief. Spent all night in the ER with a child and just don't have the drive to write a lot about this. It was a great outing. 5H and 1BB against a very potent Detroit line up. Again, hovered right around 65% strikes. Swinging strikes were at an expected 9.2% (Detroit's season average is 9.3%). Very little hard contact was made. Had hitters off balance. I particularly love the Curveball/Slider mix.
  4. Secondary User

    May 9/14

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/wNmXavJ.jpg
     
    If you just looked at the ball and strike totals on this graph, you'd probably think that I had accidentally posted a graph for Phil Hughes in the wrong article. But low and behold, with reports of Phil imparting some words of wisdom to the young hurler, Trevor May came out and put together probably his best outing of his short major league career.
     
    With the exception of a four hitter stretch in the 4th, May was very impressive. He gave up 5 hits, walked zero, and struck out 10 in 6 innings of work. 4 of those hits came consecutively in the aforementioned 4th inning, with the 5th being a solo home run surrendered to Adrian Nieto. May threw an astonishing 75% of his pitches for strikes today. This included 18 called strikes. He nearly threw as many called strikes as he did balls (22). On top of that, he continued to get great swinging strike rates.
     
    With runners on 1st and 2nd, nobody out and 2 runs already in, this looked like it was going to unravel on the second pass through the line up, but Anderson came out, and whatever he told May lit a fire. He challenged Avisail Garcia with four straight 4 seam fastballs, and struck him out without him moving his bat. Then went 2Seam, Change up and finished up with a 4 seam to get Wilkins swinging. To finish the inning, he played Dayan Viciedo like a fiddle, going slider, four seam and then a slow curve, getting swings and misses on all three. It was a very key moment for a young man who had struggled working out of the stretch.
  5. Secondary User

    Hughes 9/6

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/wr12NTM.jpg
     
    Hughes continues to show incredible control, and the most amazing thing about tonight's performance is that of his 12 swinging strikes he induced, 10 of them came on his 4 seam fastball. Good miss rates, good strike out totals, and he pitched the entire 7th inning using only four seam fastballs (10 pitchees, 8 strikes, and 2 strike outs).
     
    A shame he couldn't get the win. Sorry the last two write ups were so brief. Posting at 3:45 will lead to that. Feel free to comment on any insights you have
  6. Secondary User

    Gibson 9/4

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/bsmdmBx.jpg
     
    Low Swinging Strike percentage, 7 hits, 2 walks and 1 K. I don't think Gibson had his best stuff tonight, but he still managed 7 innings, and despite one big inning kept his team in the game. His command was not impressive, throwing only 63% of his pitches for strikes. Exacerbating that was his struggles on the first pitch of at bats. He fell behind 11 of the 28 batters he faced, and only got ahead on 12 of them (8 called strikes and 4 foul balls). He gave up three hits on the first pitch and got one out.
  7. Secondary User

    May 9/3

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/Xiw0AIe.jpg
     
    Going to make this quick. A lot of four seam fastballs, and a lot less change ups. His Swinging Strike rates were down as a result, but he still picked up 6 Ks in 5 innings. He did walk one, and that walk came in to score on a 2 run homerun after he left a change up in the middle of the plate and Viciedo was waiting on it. His control did slip a little bit in the last couple innings. He got strike one on 15 out of 20 batters who didn't put the ball in play on the first pitch (happened twice). He didn't have a three ball count until the walk he gave up with one out in the fourth, but it happened two more times after that (both in the fifth), and both at bats resulted in a hit.
     
    In the end, it's a 1.4 WHIP, a 10.8 K/9, a 1.8 BB/9 and, last but not least, a W.
  8. Secondary User

    Milone 9/2

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/33FOlc8.jpg
     
    Control. It comes down to control. Before 2012, Tommy Milone's BB/9 had always been below the 1.71 that he posted in his first full season in the majors with the exception of one season at A+ ball in 2009. He pitched to a 13-10 record that year, a 3.74 ERA, and a 2.8 WAR that was indiciative of a solid mid to back end of the rotation arm. He even was seeing some decent K/9 numbers for a guy who throws as soft as he does (6.5 K/9). In 2013, his BB/9 jumped to it's highest levels of his professional career, at 2.2, but he also saw an increase in his K/9, to 7.3. His ERA bounced up to 4.14, but he still went 12-9, and still looked like a decent option for the back end of a rotation. Through July of 2014, his BB/9 took another jump to 2.4, and he saw a dip in his K/9. His ERA, however, dropped to 3.55, the lowest of his major league career. His FIP however, was up to 4.41, only slightly less than his 2013 levels of 4.62.
     
    Then he got traded to the Twins.....
     
    Coming into tonight, his BB/9 since donning the Twins uniform was at 3.7, and that jumped to 4.8 after tonight's 4 walks. He only threw 57% of his pitches for strikes, and that's despite having some very good swinging strike rates, particularly on his change up. But you can almost see the very moment when he runs into his problems. He starts the game out, retiring 5 straight. The common theme? All 5 at bats started with a called strike with his fastball. In fact, of his first 27 pitches, 19 were strikes (5 Called strikes, 7 foul balls, 2 swinging strikes, and 5 balls put into play). Then comes Michael Taylor. Ball 1. Ball 2. Ball 3. Get me over strike. Ball 4. Then Tyler Flowers. Ball 1. Strike 1. Ball 2. Ball 3. Two run home run. The next two batters got hits on 3 pitches total, then another 5 pitch walk before inducing a flyball from Alexei Ramirez to get out of the inning.
     
    Of the 20 batters that Milone faced, he got strike 1 on 8 of them. Here's how his first pitches broke down
     
    http://i.imgur.com/ryg926g.jpg
     
    It's of note that the Swinging strike on the first pitch change up came in the last at bat of the 2nd inning when his fastball command had all but disappeared and he got aggressive Alexi to offer at it. He has to be able to get his secondary pitches over the plate for strike one on a more consistent basis. Missing on the edges with his fastball is fine, but if he can't consistently put his off-speed pitches over for strikes, hitters will sit fastball, and he will get into trouble.
  9. Secondary User

    May 8/29

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/RVCERK5.jpg
     
    Seemed like May was cruising through three, then a 2 hits, a hit batter and walk later and that's the game. From a numbers stand point, May's control was meh.....61% strikes. Got a lot of swinging strikes on his Change up and 4 seam, and a 16.7 Swinging Strike rate is nothing to shake a stick at, even for Baltimore (10.6% on the year). 8Ks in 4.2. Trying to list some positives as we see another disappointing outing....
  10. Secondary User

    Milone 8/28

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/2UicW5y.jpg
     
    According to the GameDay PitchF/x, Milone really changed up his offerings this time around. He didn't mix in his curveball until the later innings (didn't throw it until the 4th inning). According to PitchF/x, he threw a cutter, and threw it quite a bit (19 offerings), and it worked very well. While his command of his 4 seam was off (though some people I spoke to thought that the zone was getting pinched; any input into that would be greatly appreciated), his cutter got him a couple swinging strikes, and when it was put in play accounted for an out (0/4). His 4-seam and changeup didn't seem to be fooling, getting only one swinging strike each and getting hit with good contact (3/7 and 4/7 respectively).
     
    His last outing, I found myself thinking that the cutter had been such an effective pitch for Hughes, and Milone being a control guy, might benefit from that. Looking up his player card on brooksbaseball.net, a cutter is listed as one of his main offerings, yet it wasn't in the Detroit game. Again, the numbers say his command was off, but I'd love any input on what the strike zone was like tonight.
  11. Secondary User

    Nolasco 8/26

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/aOQ2S3b.jpg
     
    Well that turned quickly. Four pitches into the ninth and what looked like it could be a win on a night where he pitched fantasticly turned into a no decision.
     
    But since this is about the starting pitching let's focus on that fantastic part. Nolasco gave up 3 hits, 1 walk, 2 hit by pitch and had six strike outs over 7 innings on 97 pitches. With the exception of the two HBP, his command was strong. Both HBP were on Billy Butler, a man who clogs the base paths, but both were leading off an inning, and both when he was ahead in the count (0-1 and 1-2 respectively). Still, he only allowed 6 baserunners all night, and only once (2nd inning) did he allow more than one runner on in an inning. 22 foul balls/tips (I swear I'm going to edit my template and start including that in here) and 8.2% swinging strike rate, but as I mentioned last week, Kansas City has one of the lowest Swing and Miss rates in the league (28th of 30, 7.9%), so this is no surprise.
  12. Secondary User

    Gibson 8/24

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/pNFEC5L.jpg?1
     
    Gibson's start was really highlighted by some shaky command. He got a lot of swinging strikes (12.6%), but he seemed to be working from behind in the count often. His 2 seam command in particular really seemed to get the better of him. While his slider did do a good job of getting swinging strikes, it was put into play often and with fair success (4 hits on 6 balls in play). He did end the game with 5 strike outs in under 5 innings, which puts him above a 9 K/9 rate, but he also had 4 walks.
  13. Secondary User

    Hughes 8/21

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/nf87QCd.jpg
     
    Phil Hughes pitched a great game. Amazing command, throwing a 71-26 ratio on balls to strikes and some nice swinging strike numbers. One thing of note (though it's actually not on this image, and might start becoming part of it in the future) is that Cleveland had 32 foul balls, 3 of which were foul tips. In the top of the 3rd, Zach Walters fouled off 7 pitches in one at bat alone! There are two ways that you can look at a stat like that:
    According to Brooksbaseball.net, Hughes has a 30.84% foul ball rate on his 4 seam, a 12.09% on his Curve and a 21.40% on his Cutter. Today he had 17/56= 30.4% foulball rate on his 4 seam, 4/16=25% on his Curve and 8/24=33.3% on his Cutter, so he's above his averages on the latter two.
     
    1) Cleveland was just a little off and this is something to be concerned about
    2) Hughes is doing a great job pitching to spots that batters can't do anything but foul it off and his pitches have enough movement to be throwing off hitters.
     
    When I get to, I don't get to watch the games on a very quality picture, so it's tough for me to evaluate that. Any input from anyone?
  14. Secondary User

    Nolasco 8/20

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/eB9pmdG.jpg
     
    Mixed bag tonight from Nolasco. Nolasco's Fastball velocity seemed all over the place. He started the first two innings around 91-92 mph with both his 4 and 2 seam, but at the end of the first he touched 93 with back to back 2 seams. Then, in the third inning his velocity dipped down, registering 89-90 (thouched 92 with his last 2 seam of the inning). Then for the rest of the game he seemed hovered at 91-92, while a few 89, 90 and 93 mixed in. The Indians came into tonight's contest with the 7th lowest SwStk% in the league (8.5%), so his 8.6% is right on pace, if a little low still. His slider, while effective for some swinging strikes, when put in play did not help him much. I seemed surprised when I looked up and noticed it was 2 outs in the 7th inning when Nolasco was pulled. It really didn't seem like he had his best stuff and that he seemed in trouble often, but did a moderately good job pitching around it. That inherited runner that scored took his start from a respectable (respectively anyway) 4.05 ERA outing to a 5.40. 6 Ks, for an 8.1 K/9 rate tonight is also a nice number to see.
     
    It's hard for me to tell if Nolasco is mechanically right yet or not. The velocity dip on the fastball over a full inning makes it seem as if something still falls out of place every once in a while. Any insight would be greatly appreciated.
  15. Secondary User
    I know this information is available on the web for people, but I compile it during the game and I like to look at it. I also enjoy having some of these key demographics together in one quick table. I've yet to decide how I'm going to present the info (images aren't seeming to post over and copying data from excel is losing it's formatting), so for the time being, it's in the form of a JPEG in the attached Gallery. I may just make one for each starting pitcher and keep a rolling compendium of their starts, but that is still yet to be seen. If you have any suggestions for other things to track, or any comments, feel free to leave them below.
    http://i.imgur.com/NRdeVZT.jpg
    Administrative stuff out of the way, May's control tonight was spotty. Between the 2nd and 4th inning, he actually threw 30 of his 40 pitches for strikes. In the 4th though, his fastball command disappeared (9 of his 16 fastballs were balls). Then, the Royals hit a couple of first pitches that were down the middle to drive in all three runs. He didn't get hit overly hard, got a fair amount of swinging strikes (against the second best team in the league at not swinging and missing). Some things to be optimistic about still.
  16. Secondary User
    With the offseason hot stove about as warm as a [insert pathetic attempt at humor here] and pitchers and catchers set to report in just three weeks, it's roster prediction time. This article will start by looking at the starting rotation.
     
    ---DISCLAIMER---
    At the time of publication, most of the free agent starting pitchers are still available and the Twins have been rumored to be in active discussions with Yu Darvish. The expectation is a meaningful addition will be added either through trade or free agency, with the likely route looking more and more like free agency. This article will be written under the assumption that they add a starter that will lock into the opening day rotation.
     
    1) Ervin Santana
     
    Since his signing, Ervin Santana has been everything the Twins could have hoped he would be minus 80 games. Since becoming a Twin, Santana has registered a 3.47 ERA over 500.2 innings, including 211.1 in 2017 en route to a 10.0 bWAR. His peripherals have all stayed largely in line with what he's done throughout his career, and while a modest K-rate in the high teens and a fly ball tendency aren't going to produce the low FIP results people want to see, over the the last five years he's shown a consistent ability to out pitch his peripherals. Whether that will hold up over the remainder of his contract is yet to be seen, but barring the addition of one of a handful of options, Ervin is all but assured to be the Opening Day starter for the 3rd year in a row.
     
    2) Jose Berrios
     
    After a hellacious start to his career and a stint in Rochester to start 2017, Jose re-entered the Twins rotation in mid May and looked much more the pitcher Twins fans were expecting to see. With the help of his elusive two-seam fastball and wipeout curve, Jose worked a 3.89 ERA. With a 22.6% K-rate, improved control, and a work ethic second to none, there is plenty to be excited about as Jose starts the season at 23 years old and firmly slotted into the 2nd spot in the rotation.
     
    Related note:
    If you're looking for a reason to be optimistic that Jose could take the next step into a full fledged top of the rotation starter, I'll leave you with this:
     
    Jose used his changeup around 8.5% of the time in 2017, 14% to lefties and only 4% against righties. Here's an example of Garret Cooper looking an absolute fool at a changeup that just disappears.
     
    https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/887827186916483072Riding
     
    With a curve that works so hard from right to left, I'd like to see him incorporate this pitch more. If he can get consistent results with his changeup, watch out....
     
    4) Adelberto Mejia
     
    With the two obvious options aside, and an addition almost certainly slotting into the top 3 somewhere, we now get to the fourth spot in the rotation. This is the first point where I've encountered some differing opinions, though it seems like a no-brainer to me. Adelberto Mejia, who was required for Eduardo Nunez back in 2016, has a fastball that sits 92-94 slider. The bulky left-hander struggled to get deep into games in 2017, using a lot of pitches early while walking 4 hitters per 9 innings. This is a bit of an oddity considering he never really struggled with walks in the minors. He posted a 4.50 ERA, which is a little below average (98 ERA+), but given he'll be 24 at the start of the season, the room for growth is there. You'd like to see improvement to the 19% K-rate along with the efficiency this season, but expecting a solid 3/4 contribution from Mejia in 2018 is definitely no stretch. On the flip side,
     
    5) [insert Pitcher Here]
     
    Most people want to insert Kyle Gibson here, and that will almost assuredly be the direction they go to start the season. However, you can put me in the group of people that don't think Gibson's strong second half wasn't a career turning point. As was the case with the Twins schedule in general, Kyle faced a much easier set of opponents in the second half. Of Kyle's 13 second half starts, only two of them came against teams with winning records (those two games did happen to be Houston and Cleveland, for whatever that's worth). Four of them came against the Tigers, two against the Royals, two against the Blue Jays, and one each against the Rangers, Padres and White Sox. Not exactly a murder's row.
     
    There are a few different routes to competition for the 5th spot:
     
    Return from Injury
    Last spring, Trevor May was stretching back out to be a starter when he needed Tommy John surgery to repair his UCL. While he doesn't figure to be ready until May (har har) at the earliest, it'll be interesting to watch just what role is envisioned for him as he makes his return.
     
    Phil Hughes also ended the season the the DL last year while undergoing a secondary surgery for Thoracic Outlet syndrome. After a breakout 2014, Hughes immediately saw his velocity drop and the results disappear along with it. After two procedures, can he regain his velocity, and perhaps a rotation spot?
     
    Prospects
    Rochester's rotation figures to be quite full at the start of the minor league season. From ranked prospects such as Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves to deeper prospects like Dietrich Enns, Zack Littel, Kohl Stewart, Aaron Slegers and Felix Jorge, there figures to be competition at the highest minor league level. With so many arms, you'd like to think that someone will take a step forward and force the organization's hand.
     
    Free Agency
     
    Yes, we're assuming the Twins will make a free agent starting pitcher addition, but could they double down and bring in two arms? With the market developing slowly, can they find the room to fit Darvish plus a Lynn, Cobb, or even a Jaime Garcia? If Darvish goes elsewhere, could they take that money and hedge their bet by bringing in both Lynn and Cobb? There are still a lot of arms available, and it doesn't appear as if there are a lot of teams willing to pony up the money to get these starters to sign. Does that open the door for something a little unexpected to happen?
     
    The top of the Twins rotation looks set one through three. My perception is that I'm more bullish on Mejia than most and more bearish on Gibson than most. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see an other season similar to last year where the fifth spot in the rotation becomes a carousel until someone sticks. Unlike last year, with the AAA depth, I fully expect someone to stick this season.
  17. Secondary User
    At first glance, you might think the idea of calling up Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to the major league club would be ridiculous. They are respectively the 1st and 2nd ranked prospects in a highly regarded Twins farm system, they are 21.5 and 22 years old, and a .279 and .254 batting average at AA doesn't scream "Ready for the Majors." But as is often the case, first impressions aren't all that telling. In fact, by the end of this piece, I think many of you will agree that both players are ready for a call to the majors.
     
    Rewind to April 23rd. The Chattanooga Lookouts had just lost to fall to a record of 6-7 with a roster that was believed to be one of the best in all the minors, a roster that included the aforementioned Buxton and Sano. But Byron had just been benched (for what would amount to two games) after starting the season hitting .180/.241/.300 with 14Ks/4BBs in 54 plate appearances. Miguel was in the lineup that day, but was struggling just as much, hitting .163/.333/.326 with 15Ks/10BBs in 54 PAs. The two were rusty, but then again, it was expected for two prospects who missed the bulk, if not all, of the 2014 season.
     
    The rust came off quite suddenly for Byron. He returned to the line up on the 25th and went 2 for 5 with a home run. Since his benching, Byron has hit .306/.373/.541 with 6 2B, 11 3B, and 5 HR. His K% dropped from 25.9% down to 19.3% and his BB% has gone from 7.4% to 9.5% (17.7% and 10.0% over that stretch respectively). He has stolen 18 bases and only been caught once.
     
    It took a little longer for Miguel, though. He struggled up through May 6th, hitting .163/.299/.388. The power was there (.225 ISO) and he was still drawing lots of walks (15.5% BB%), but the average was still lagging in large part due to a K% of 28.9%. Since then, Sano has hit .321/.397/.578 with 6 HR, 8 2B, and 1 3B while cutting his Ks down to 27 in 126 PAs (21.4% K%).
     
    Of course, small sample size is something with which to be concerned, but are these performances out of character for these two? Buxton was considered a fast track candidate before multiple injuries in 2014. Is it so odd to believe that he could still be viewed as such? The biggest surprise might be the home run power Buxton is exhibiting, but even if that doesn't translate, he will still be a weapon defensively and on the basepaths.
     
    As for Sano, let me offer you this. After hitting over .300 at A+, a mid-season promotion to AA saw continued power numbers, but a steep decline in average. Then, over his next 30+ games, he hit over .300 while maintaining his power before being called up to the majors. But you might be saying to yourself, "Miguel Sano hasn't been called to the majors yet....what is this writer thinking?" That's because I wasn't describing Miguel Sano; I was describing the path Joey Gallo took to the majors. I'll put their numbers side by side to illustrate my point:
     
    http://i.imgur.com/WCYUYwX.jpg
     
    I included a tab for Sano's last 29 games because I think including the start of the year when he's knocking off some rust is a little unfair. Look pretty similar though, don't they? Joey Gallo's 8 game debut thus far? 35 PAs, 3BBs, 15Ks, 2 HRs, .313/.371/.531.
     
    So you're the Twins front office, and the shine has begun to wear off the major league club. A team that was putting up runs in bunches earlier in the season has scored 25 runs in their last 10 games en route to a 3-7 record. Rumors have begun to spring up that they could be looking for a power bat, perhaps even one that plays the outfield. But what if those improvements came from within the organization? How could you fit both Buxton and Sano into the lineup on an everyday basis?
     
    If you agree that both prospects have exhibited enough to warrant promotions to the big club, the question becomes, how do they get everyday at bats? You aren't going to call these players up to be bench guys. To make room on the active roster, the first obvious move is to DFA Deunsing. He has struggled, and Tyler Jay has the potential to step in as a lefty specialist in the short term. The second move is a little less clear, but I think there are two options.
     
    Option 1: DFA Nunez.
    Option 2: Option Hicks or Rosario to AAA.
     
    DFAing Nunez seems to make more sense if we are prioritizing player potential, but optioning Hicks or Rosario opens up a spot in the outfield for Buxton every day. However, you could start a three-man rotation between Hicks/Hunter/Rosario between the two corner spots and plug Buxton into CF every day. It is more difficult to find everyday at bats for Sano. Even amidst a struggle, Trevor Plouffe is not going to be moving out of the lineup, and the same thing can be said for Mauer. With Vargas recently being called up, don't look for him to be sitting out too many games, either. That leaves Sano and Plouffe as options at third base, Plouffe, Mauer and Vargas as options at 1st base, and all 4 as options as DH. It could work, but it would most likely result in a few less at bats, all around.
     
    Put all of this together, and the conclusion is clear: If you believed Buxton was on a fast track in 2013, why wouldn't he still be considered on a fast track? As for Sano, a recent comparison to one Mr. Gallo leads me to believe he can be successful in his jump from AA to the majors. Whether the team can find the at bats seems to be the last looming question.
  18. Secondary User
    January 1st has a much different tenor in 2015 than it did in 2014 for Ricky Nolasco. A year ago, Ricky had recently signed the largest free agent contract in Twins history (though that's not saying much) with the expectation of being a veteran presence to help stabilize a rotation that was in shambles. After a disastrous 2014 campaign, suddenly the idea that he doesn't deserve a spot in the opening day rotation has been tossed around by more than a few fans. As time has passed, it's clear that Ricky Nolasco will be expected in the starting rotation, but what can be expected from him?
     
    When I have discussions about Ricky Nolasco, people are quick to point out his less than stellar career numbers. People point to his career (pre-2014) ERA of 4.37, and an ERA- of 108 (scaled to 100, lower is better). They mention that he has had as many seasons over a 5.00 ERA as he had under 3.00 (2 apiece). The idea is that Ricky Nolasco duped the Twins by having a strong year in a contract season, in the National League no less, and that his 2014 results are a product of a less than stellar pitcher and moving to the more vaunted American League.
     
    But when you dig a little deeper, you see a bit of a different story. For example, Ricky had a pre-2014 FIP of 3.76, and a FIP- of 92 (scaled to 100, lower is better). For those unfamiliar with FIP and FIP-, I'd suggest reading this article on FIP, and this article on FIP-. Essentially, FIP attempts to look at what a pitcher's performance would be like with league average defense by looking at how the pitcher performed on the only outcomes they have the most control over; home runs, walks and strike outs.
     
    So what does this say about Nolasco? Before 2014, Ricky Nolasco was better than average when the ball wasn't put into play. So is there something about Ricky's profile that makes him susceptible to under performing his FIP? Is there something about the balls that were put into play that led his ERA to balloon?
     
    First thing I looked at was his Ball in Play rates from 06-13 compared against qualified starters from that time span. This accounted for a list of 245 pitchers with over 790,000 batters faced and over 590,000 balls contacted (different from balls in play because balls contacted includes homeruns).
     
    http://i.imgur.com/jqwmD4Z.jpg
     
    Unfortunately, this really didn't give any indication one way or the other. His ground ball rate (GB%) is slightly lower and his flyball rate (FB%) and line drive rate (LD%) are slightly higher, but his infield fly ball rate (IFFB%) is much higher than the total, though slightly lower than the average. GBs are significantly more likely to be outs and significantly less likely to be extra bases when compared to FBs and LDs, so being slightly on the wrong end of each of these does put him at some risk, but there aren't any drastic swings in either direction. It's also interesting to note that his GB% was 45.1%, 46.6% and 43.0% in 2011, 12 and 13 respectively, though he still underperformed his FIP by 0.65, 1.13 and 0.36 respectively.
     
    This graph also shows just how Nolasco has been able to put up a good FIP over the years. He is league average when it somes to HR/FB (and also HR%, though that didn't make the graph) while having better than average K% and BB%.
     
    But when you look at the defensive rankings (Fangraphs descprtion) of the teams he played for, you begin to see some possible explanations:
     
    http://i.imgur.com/BvkPJAU.jpg
     
    Nolasco annually played in front of a bottom third defense that cost the team runs. The one hiccup in this train of thought is that during his time with the Dodgers, he still had a 3.18 FIP and a 3.56 ERA despite playing in front of a stout Dodger defense. Then again, 80+ innings isn't a huge sampling, so it could be noise.
     
    So what does all of this mean for Ricky Nolasco going forward? Unfortunately, the outlook is bleak. The Twins defense in 2014 ranked 27th in the league with a DEF of -46.5. The infield appears passable. But the only significant position player that was brought in was Torii Hunter, who doesn't figure to be much of an improvement on the field. What he may bring in leadership and as a mentor is difficult to quantify and predict. Of course, there is help on it's way in the form of Byron Buxton in center, and Rosario appears to have the athleticism to be an average to above average corner outfielder. But with a likely outfield composed of Arcia and Hunter flanking Hicks/Schafer/Santana in 2015, even should his FIP return to his career numbers, there's little hope in bucking the trend of his ERA trailing behind his FIP.
  19. Secondary User
    Can someone please explain to me what Terry Ryan is thinking? For three years we've been rebuilding. Guys like Correia, Marquis and Pelfrey were brought in as payroll was slashed. And now, in the past 3 hours, two pieces of news have convinced me that they have absolutely no clue what they're doing.
     
    First, we signed Torii Hunter to a 10.5 million dollar one year contract. No, I didn't meant to write 1.5 million, or 0.5 million. It is a 10.5 million dollar contract. To improve one of the worst defensive outfields in the league , they signed a 39 year old right fielder that was the worst qualified defensive right fielder in the league . Or maybe they did it because they wanted someone to be a mentor. Ignoring how poorly that worked with the Jasons Bartlett and Kubel, they are bringing in a player with a troubling past to say the least. I can find no same baseball reason to sign Hunter, let alone to make him the third highest paid player on your team. Let that sink into your mind. 39 year old Torii Hunter is receiving the third highest salary among current players.
     
    The second decision, was to tender contacts to all 6 arbitration eligible players. Trevor Plouffe and Fien were no doubters in my mind, though Milone and Schafer seemed logical to be offered a contract given the lack of talent say their respective positions. But Nunez and Deunsing make no sense. What does Eduardo Nunez offer that Escobar doesn't as a utility guy (or Doug Bernier/James Beresford if they keep Santana in the outfield and Escobar at sorry)? Does it make any sense to pay a sub par lefty only reliever 2.5 million dollars while you leave players like Levi Michael, Adrian Salcedo, Jason Adam (a player you just traded for) unprotected? All he offers is innings pitched that could go to Caleb Thielbar, Aaron Thompson or Logan Darnell (or even Tommy Milone if he doesn't stick in the rotation) to see if they could provide at least the same mediocre results at 1/5th the cost.
     
    Instead, when you add in the addition of Hunter, Twins payroll will likely be sitting around 92 million. I wanted to believe, for once, that with multiple top tier pitching free agents and several second tier guys, that Terry Ryan would actually go out and make an aggressive attempt in free agency to bring in a high end free agent. Instead, we get to continue the Reunion Parade with, probably add a pitcher on looking to bounce back from injury (Likely on a similar one year deal near 10 million) while we hope that our pitching staff ascends to mediocrity from the scrap heap it's been over the last four years while we hope that our offense, which has several regression candidates (Hunter's continued slide into retirement included), can maintain itself. Not exactly a winning plan in my estimation.
     
    Can Terry Ryan's job security afford the hit of one more failing season? Because the path he seems to be leading us down may very well answer that question.
  20. Secondary User
    As a fan who's defended the Twins adamantly over the last four years, this start to free agency couldn't have been any more disheartening.
     
    I'm very aware that the gears of major league rebuilds turn slowly, particularly when you look at where the Twins organization was after the 2011 season. I staunchly defended signings like Marquis, Correia, and Pelfrey for two reasons. One, the starting pitching markets in those seasons weren't particularly deep, and two (more importantly), it didn't make sense to invest significant money in contracts that would mostly cover rebuilding years. I stood by the decision to move both Span and Revere in one off season because, even if it hasn't panned out as we had hoped, outfield was considered a position of depth at the time and the organization needed legitimate pitching prospects. I was fine with letting Aaron Hicks get two cracks to be the guy in center field because the team wasn't going anywhere. I have stood by Terry Ryan over and over and over again because I've watched the growth of our farm system turn into one of the best in the league.
     
    But to hear the rumors that are coming out in these initial weeks makes me seriously question the acumen of this front office. Justin Masterson is a fine pitching target. He's got a lot of upside and is a great bounce back candidate. Not the flashiest target, but a decent potential move as long as he's not your headliner. But that may very well be the case.
     
    Then we start to hear rumors that the Twins (backed by Molitor) are heavily pursuing Torii Hunter as yet another return candidate. After wasting roster spots on the Jasons Bartlett and Kubel last year just to watch them not make it more than 4 months cumulatively, now we are aggressively pursuing a 39 year old outfield who's defense has declined to the point where his metrics rank lower than Oswaldo Arcia. And why are we doing this? Because we want Torii to be a leader. That's right, we want Teflon Torii to be the leader and mentor for our talented young outfielders.
     
    And the cherry on top of it all, was waking up this morning to a report on MLBTradeRumors claiming the Twins were interested in soon to be 33 year old Wily Mo Pena. Pena's spent the last three years playing in the Japan, and has showed some of the prodigous power (evidenced HERE) that made him an interesting prospect in his youth, but weighing in at 260, he profiles mostly as a 1B (Occupied by Mauer), DH (Occupied by Vargas), or corner outfield. Is Willy Mo Pena the answer to this team's defensive ineptitude in the OF? Does Terry Ryan actually believe that the Twins outfield defense isn't that bad because they "catch what they get to"? Does Willy Mo fit into this same description?
     
    I understand the need to be patient with a farm system, not wanting to block players, and maintaining payroll flexibility so that you can sign young talent to lucrative extensions. But no farm system does it alone, and by their own admission, the organization isn't using their allotted budget. At what point does this team make a significant investment in order to supplement and ease the transition of the young talent? At what point do we start valuing defense? At what point do they stop leaving money on the table?
     
    It's early in the off-season (as evidenced by the fact that as I wrote this article, news broke that the Twins won the bid on Hyeong Jong Yang), and this may all be moot in a couple weeks anyway. But the early indications as to who the organization is targeting, particularly when it comes to positional players, are unsettling to say the least
  21. Secondary User
    Dear Mr. Ryan
     
    Let's start out on some common ground. The last four years have been very disappointing. We've heard these numbers in one form or another for years now, so I won't drag it out, but I want to highlight just a couple of the most disappointing statistics. 383 losses in 4 seasons. A pitching staff who's ERA ranked 29th, 28th, 29th and 29th out of 30 from 2011-2014. A starting rotation that ranked last in the league in ERA from 2011-2014. And all of this coming as we moved into the publicly funded Target Field. It hasn't been fun.
     
    Sadly, these last four years did not come out of nowhere. They have been years in the making. The farm system stopped producing in the late 00s and early 10s. Payroll has been cut, despite revenues that the organization has never before seen (more on this later). Significant trades have failed to yield productive players or prospects, and those who have found success, have done so after leaving the organization. The clubhouse seemed to get stale as losing year after year took its toll on the players, yet the same voices remained in charge.
     
    Many see the firing of Ron Gardenhire as token gesture meant to save your own job and to try and placate the masses, but I do not. I think your loyalty and your camaraderie with Gardy made it very difficult and very painful for you to do. That loyalty is to be commended, but know that loyalty cuts both ways. Holding onto the status quo for the sake of allegiance and friendship breeds stagnation and can inhibit progress.
     
    It is with this sentiment in mind that many, myself included, hope that you are truly considering managers from outside the organization. I have no doubt that their may be very good major league managers already employed within the organization. People who, though currently working with the Twins organization, have experience with many other clubs. But know that many will be skeptical of a promotion from within, no matter how deserving it may be. I do not envy the balancing act that will be required as you move forward.
     
    It's this skepticism that is dangerous. You recently discussed how you sense a lot of anger from the fan base. This may have been true, but I think it may be more dire than you give it credit. There is no doubt there is a die hard fan base that is not pleased with the direction the organization has taken since moving into Target Field. But these fans are likely not going anywhere, and will remain vocal and committed to the Twins no matter how long the team continues to struggle. They are not the concern.
     
    The more troubling aspect, however, is that the casual fan base is losing interest in the organization. The combination of a steep decline in the on-field product along with moving into Target Field has left many casual fans cynical of the organizations commitment to producing a competitive on field product. Is this completely fair? I don't believe so. As was said earlier, these four years are a product of many decisions and many years. I believe it's more unfortunate than anything else that it came about as we moved into Target Field. Whether it's fair or not though, the perception is just as damaging, because worse than anger is disinterest. The disinterest of the casual fan, not the anger of the diehard fan, will be what continues to drive attendance down.
     
    So the question is, what's to be done. How can you ebb the growing tide of malaise and get people excited to come back out to Target Field. The simple answer, is make a splash. With the All-Star game come and gone, the only thing left to draw interest is the product on the field. Fortunately, you have some things working in your favor.
     
    Thanks to Target Field, the organization has the revenues and the payroll flexibility to go out and be aggressive this off season. On top of this, the free agent market for starting pitching is fairly saturated, with several impact players at the top of the list. These two factors make this an ideal time to step out on that ledge and make the splashy move that has been the antithesis of the Twins organization for so long.
     
    Do not let past errors, the fear of failure or the idea that our prospects aren't ready dissuade you from making a bold move. Nearly 2 years ago, the Royals, with a team that was young and unaccomplished went out and took a risk and added James Shields. It was a move that was widely criticized. "This team isn't ready to compete," was the rallying cry of of the masses. But here they are, competing in the World Series.
     
    And here we stand. A young developing core of talent with a smattering veterans and reinforcements working their way up. Resources to use, and a players available who fit our needs. I've watched this organization, from the Gulf Coast League to the Majors, very closely under your tenure, Mr. Ryan, and I believe there's a method to the madness. But at this crucial juncture, with public support waning, when you sit down with Dave St. Peter, I believe that you can come to one, and only one conclusion. Spend Baby, Spend.
     
    Signed
     
    A Loyal Twins Fan
  22. Secondary User

    Nolasco 9/22

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/7DNhJ0y.jpg
     
    Though he didn't exactly cruise through the first four innings, Nolsasco had put up zeros through 4 innings before getting tagged for 5 and not escaping the 5th. Control was down, swinging strikes hovered right around 9% again, but .588 average on balls in play is never a good sign.
  23. Secondary User

    May 9/20

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/u6zu9aq.jpg
     
    After his best start in the majors earlier this week, May struggled this trip through the rotation. He gave up 8 hits, 2 walks and 7ER through 4.2. As the numbers show, he struggled with his command just scratching over 60% strikes thrown. Swinging strike rates were nothing to write home about, but not bad, particularly on his change up.
     
    This is where it gets interesting. Over Trevor May's first 6 starts, his 4 seam fastball velocity averaged 91.7mph, which seemed lower than what I had expected from him. He was occassionally hitting 94, but most of his pitches were sitting between 92 and 90. Then come's his start on the 14th. His 4 seam average 93 mph that day, and he was regularly hitting 95, with the bulk of his pitches sitting at 94 and 93.
     
    Why is this important? Because in his first 6 outings, May's 4 seam command was not good, sitting at 66% strikes thrown. Against Chicago you might ask? 84% of his 4 seam fastballs were thrown for strikes. Now it's true that Chicago is a free swinging team, so that undoubtedly helped, but in that start, he had a better called strike rate than any other game he's started (33%).
     
    Jump ahead to May's next start back this weekend back at Target Field, and his velocity dipped to 91.5 mph on the four seam, and his control of it was back down to 71%.
     
    It's not that far of a stretch to believe that May is feeling the pressure of trying to make his mark in the bigs. He's commented several times on the support he's had from fans through Twitter and their excitement and anticipation for his major league arrival. Knowing the Twins organization is desperate for positives and with so many people looking to him to be one of the catalysts for this rotation, it's not hard to see a scenario where he's just gripping the ball too hard and it's affecting his velocity and control. This is all very much conjecture, but any introduction to pitching is going to teach you that over-gripping most pitches is going to result in a loss of velocity and control.
     
     
    One quick administrative note. My pattern of not writing up on pitchers I don't think aren't a long term part of the rotation (Darnell, Pino, etc.) will continue with Sunday's starter Anthony Swarzak. There will be no write up on Sunday's game.
  24. Secondary User

    Hughes 9/19

    By Secondary User,

    http://i.imgur.com/u6zu9aq.jpg
     
    A couple days late, as I was traveling, but here are the numbers on Hughes' start this Friday against the Indians. Cleveland was not fooled, swinging and missing only twice, and putting up 10 hits against Hughes through 7 innings. He didn't walk anyone, so a 1.429 WHIP on a night where Hughes didn't have his best stuff isn't horrible. He kept his team in the game and the Twins were able to get him off the hook and eventually get a win.
     
    The command is one thing that just continues to amaze. He was over 75% on strikes in tonight's game, and 23 of the strikes were called strikes (2 swinging, 17 foul/tip, 26 in play).
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