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Blog Entries posted by jwestbrock

  1. jwestbrock
    Since he joined the Twins last year, the question has been asked repeatedly, “Can Samuel Deduno keep this up?” At the pace he was going last year, with almost a 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio, conventional wisdom tells us that he could not. Lucky for him, and the Twins, he has not continued at that pace. Last year, Deduno walked a batter in 15.3% of plate appearances, but this year that number is down to 9.1%. Sounds great on the surface, but in limiting his walks, he has also decreased his strikeout rate from 16.4% to 13.6%. It would seem Mr. Deduno is buying into the dreaded “Pitch to Contact” philosophy, but it is not as if he was a strikeout machine last year anyway, he was below the league average of 19.8%. Deduno’s real calling card all along has been his ability to get groundballs. In 2012, he got a groundball 58.3% of the time and this year he is up to 59.5%. For reference, the league average is 44.6% meaning Sam Deduno is a groundball machine.
     
    With this season down the drains and my focus turning to next season where hope starts to shine a little brighter with the (hopefully) imminent arrival of Sano, Rosario, Meyer, May, etc, I wanted to see what Deduno may bring to the Twins rotation. Where I began was to brainstorm comparable Twins pitchers from recent years who were categorized as groundball, low strikeout guys, namely Nick Blackburn and Carlos Silva. For most Twins fans, those two names are not names that you necessarily want to see popping up when looking for comparables, but lucky for us, neither man provides a particularly good comparison. The best groundball rate either of them posted was a 55.5% by Silva, as a reliever, with the Phillies in 2002. His best as a starter came in 2004 with the Twins, where he got a groundball 50.5% of the time. Blackburn’s best year was the 53.5% that he put up in 2011. While they were both above average at getting groundballs, neither ever did it at as extreme of a rate as Sam Deduno has the last two years.
     
    Instead, I turned my focus outside the organization to see if there was any precedent in recent years for guys with similar numbers to Deduno having success. To find comparable pitchers, I took an idea from a recent Fangraphs post by Jeff Sullivan concerning how terrible the Twins are at striking people out. If you haven’t read it, it is quite interesting, and depressing. But in the piece, Sullivan comes up with a measure K%-, or strikeout rate minus to neutralize the differences between strikeout rates across different years and give a more accurate comparison between different pitchers in different years (100 being average, 100+ above average, under 100 below average). The necessity for this was brought up by the fact that, since 2002, strikeout rates have risen from 16.8% to 19.7%, meaning Deduno’s 13.6% strikeout rate would look a lot better in 2002 than it does this year. I did a similar process with walk rate (BB%), but that was less out of necessity and more for the sake of consistency. Now it should be noted that when looking at these numbers, 100 is average in both, but since we like more strikeouts, anything above 100 is above average for K%-, and since we dislike walks, anything below 100 is above average. This is not ideal, but it was a rough idea to get a quick comparison thrown together. What these numbers revealed was that Deduno’s is 31% below the league average at striking batters out (K%- of 69), but 15% above league average at walking batters (BB%- of 115).
     
    At this point I gathered up all the pitchers from 2002 to 2013 (the years in which Fangraphs has information on batted ball types) who pitched at least 100 innings in a year and searched for any pitcher who had a K%- between 60 and 79, a BB%- of 105 to 125, and a groundball percentage (GB%) of 58% to 60.9%. Now you’ll notice I didn’t create a GB%- because the league groundball percentage has remained fairly stable between 43.3% and 44.6%, therefore a GB%- would not have provided much of a difference. I found 6 pitchers in that time frame who fit the qualifications, Scott Erickson (2002), Jamey Wright (2006), Charlie Morton (2011), Zach Day (2003), and Jake Westrook (2003, 2011). At this point, I just wanted to walk away because this group doesn’t do much more for me than Silva and Blackburn, but I pushed on. Below is a table showing the ERA-, FIP-, ERA, and FIP of those 6 pitcher seasons with the averages at the bottom. I also included a line, “Weighted Average,” that gives more credit in the average to pitchers who pitched more (ie Jake Westbrook 2011 @ 183.1 IP) than guys who pitched less (ie Zach Day and Jake Westbrook 2003 at 131.1 and 133, respectively).
     
    [TABLE=width: 1037]


    Season
    Name
    Team
    IP
    LOB%
    GB%
    ERA
    FIP
    ERA-
    FIP-
    K%
    BB%
    K%-
    BB%-

    [TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

    Charlie Morton
    Pirates[TD=align: right]171.2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]72.50%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]58.50%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.83[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.77[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]103[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]101[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]14.30%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]10.00%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]77[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]123[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]2003[/TD]

    Jake Westbrook
    Indians[TD=align: right]133[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]70.90%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]59.60%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.33[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.57[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]98[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]105[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]10.00%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9.70%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]61[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]114[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

    Jake Westbrook
    Cardinals[TD=align: right]183.1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]69.10%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]59.30%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.66[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.25[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]126[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]114[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]12.90%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9.00%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]69[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]111[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]2006[/TD]

    Jamey Wright
    Giants[TD=align: right]156[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]66.80%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]58.10%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]5.19[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.89[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]115[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]107[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]11.70%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9.50%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]70[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]113[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]2002[/TD]

    Scott Erickson
    Orioles[TD=align: right]160.2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]66.30%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]58.00%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]5.55[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]5.08[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]128[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]119[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]10.30%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9.50%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]61[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]109[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]2003[/TD]

    Zach Day
    Expos[TD=align: right]131.1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]72.20%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]59.50%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.18[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.47[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]95[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]100[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]10.50%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]10.20%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]64[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]120[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]2013[/TD]

    Samuel Deduno
    Twins[TD=align: right]94[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]75.00%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]59.50%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.54[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.03[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]88[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]101[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]13.60%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9.10%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]69[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]115[/TD]



    [/TD]
    Average (non-Deduno)
    [TD=align: right]155.8
    [TD=align: right]69.63%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]58.83%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.62[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.51[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]111[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]108[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]11.62%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9.65%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]67[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]115[/TD]



    [/TD]
    Weighted Average (non-Deduno)

    [TD=align: right]69.55%
    [TD=align: right]58.80%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.63[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.48[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]112[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]108[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]11.76%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9.62%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]67[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]115[/TD]

    [/TABLE]
     
    Whether I weighted the average or not, Deduno is having the best season of the seven pitchers based on ERA-. By FIP-, he is only eclipsed (barely) by Zach Day.
     
    Why is it that of those seven, Deduno this year is 7 percentage points better than any of the rest compared to league average? To me, it comes down to his percentage of runners left on base (LOB%). Despite what the Twins hitters would lead you to believe over the last few weeks, the average LOB% has hovered in the low 70’s for the entire sample of 2002 to 2013. As we can see, for this group as the LOB% goes up, the ERA tends to go down, so it should be no surprise then that Deduno with his 75% LOB% has the lowest ERA- of the group, he simply been better at leaving his opponents on base. However, LOB% is extremely volatile. From 2002-2012, the only pitching peripheral stats with a lower year to year correlation were Batting average on balls in play (BABIP), Line Drive percentage (LD%), and Home Runs per Fly Ball Hit (HR/FB). Is it a good sign for the last two years he has had LOB% of 77% and 75%, yes because there is evidence that pitchers have a small amount of influence on their LOB%, but not enough to get giddy about, especially when you compare it to his peers.
     
    Where this starts to get interesting is looking towards next year.
     
    [TABLE=width: 1037]


    Season
    Name
    Team
    IP
    LOB%
    GB%
    K%
    BB%
    K%-
    BB%-
    ERA
    FIP
    ERA-
    FIP-

    [TD=align: right]2012[/TD]

    Charlie Morton
    Pirates[TD=align: right]50.1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]66.20%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]56.50%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]11.20%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.90%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]57[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]61[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.65[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.17[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]121[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]110[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]2004[/TD]

    Jake Westbrook
    Indians[TD=align: right]215.2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]72.40%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]62.60%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]13.00%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6.80%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]77[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]79[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.38[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.04[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]75[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]92[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]2012[/TD]

    Jake Westbrook
    Cardinals[TD=align: right]174.2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]70.90%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]58.10%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]14.10%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6.90%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]72[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]86[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.97[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.8[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]104[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]100[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]2007[/TD]

    Jamey Wright
    Rangers[TD=align: right]77[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]75.70%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]54.80%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]11.80%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]12.40%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]69[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]146[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.62[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]5.03[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]78[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]110[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]2004[/TD]

    Zach Day
    Expos[TD=align: right]116.2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]76.50%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]53.60%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]12.30%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9.10%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]73[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]106[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.93[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.71[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]89[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]104[/TD]



    [/TD]
    Average
    [TD=align: right]126.54
    [TD=align: right]0.7234[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.5712[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.1248[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.0802[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]69.6[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]95.6[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.91[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.35[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]93.4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]103.2[/TD]



    [/TD]
    Weighted Average

    [TD=align: right]72.65%
    [TD=align: right]58.28%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]12.89%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]7.78%[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]72[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]93[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.77[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.23[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]90[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]100[/TD]

    [/TABLE]
     
    Of the six pitchers, the only one to make more than 19 starts was Jake Westbrook in both 2004 and 2012. Scott Erickson was hurt for 2003, so I left him out because I feel like going two years would not have been the best simply, because guys generally spend much of the year getting their feel back.
     
    The big takeaway from this table is that the groups ERA- and FIP- both improved, whether weighted for the fact that Jake Westbrook pitched most of the innings in the sample or not. There is one very big disclaimer that needs to be thrown on this is that the only man whose LOB% did not go up was Charlie Morton and his ERA- went up as a consequence. While that looks promising for Deduno, remember his LOB% is 75% already, and none of his other peers have been able to put up that kind of LOB%, because generally guys with LOB% north of 75% strike people out. One other thing of note, their groundball percentages all went down the next year save Jake Westbrook.
     
    What can we expect from Deduno going forward?
     
    For me, I would expect an uptick in ERA, probably bringing him closer to league average, if not a little over, mostly due to some LOB% regression. Because he has maintained his two year rate at such a high level relative to the group, it makes me hopeful he can maintain that success, but I expect he'll regress because generally guys who have LOB% north of 75% strikeout batters at a much higher rate than Mr. Deduno.
     
    What can we hope for?
     
    Jake Westbrook. If he can maintain his groundball and strikeout rates, and continue to drop the walks even to 8%, that will go along way towards him remaining league average or slightly better. While that doesn’t sound enticing, for this rotation, it practically makes him the ace and maybe a piece that can stick around in the back of the rotation for a couple years.
     
    Should the Twins lock him up long term?
     
    NO! PLEASE NO! To me, while there are some examples of these guys improving, the signs do not point to a guy you want to lock into long term, especially when the Twins can go year to year with him through 2018, plus he is already 30. That way if he absolutely craters, the Twins can simply do exactly what they did last year, non tender him and sign him back to a minor league deal with a invite to Spring Training.
     
    What is in Samuel Deduno's future?
     
    Based on the evidence above, he is a guy who may be able to pitch for a while, but will likely bounce around as a 4th or 5th starter on a couple different teams before retiring in his mid-30's.
  2. jwestbrock
    Mauer hitting his 8th home run tonight got me thinking about how this year stacks up against last season and his career. I thought about doing further back, but since '11 was messed up due to the injuries, '10 is starting to get a little far back for my liking for comparative purposes, and '09 is a fluke, I settled on this year, last year and compared them to his career numbers.
     
    So I'm going to start off with the more traditional stats. (Note: stats are from Fangraphs unless otherwise noted, career averages for counting stats (HR, RBI, 2B) will be pre-'13, and these may not be 100% accurate as I am writing this during the game so the numbers are fluid)
     
    [TABLE=width: 500]


    [/TD]
    Games
    AVG
    OBP
    SLG
    HR
    2B
    RBI


    2012
    147
    .319
    .416
    .446
    10
    31
    85


    2013
    67 (pace:153)
    .331
    .412
    .506
    8 (pace:18)
    23 (pace:53)
    25 (pace:57)


    Career
    1065 (118)
    .323
    .405
    .469
    102 (10.4)
    270 (27.4)
    612 (65.2)
    [/TABLE]
     
    Batting average and On-base percentage are right around, albiet a little above, his career marks. Now compared to last year, his average is up 13 points, but OBP is down three, so on the surface it looks like he's getting a few more hits, but losing a few walks. Mauer is one 2-3 home run week from being on pace to double his home run total from last year and his career mark. He's on pace for his second highest home run total of his career and his highest doubles output of his career as well. Since he's on pace to crush both his 2012 and career home run and double totals, it only follows his slugging should be up significantly, as it is.
     
    Despite the increase in slugging, Mauer is on pace to have his second lowest RBI total in a season where he played at least 100 games. Since he has hit in the 2 spot most of the year, everyone should have expected his RBI total to be low, due to a lack of opportunities. This in reinforced by the fact he is on pace to have his third lowest number of batters on base when he is batting. He has only 54 plate appearances with runners in scoring position in which he is hitting .286/.444/.333, so in the small sample size, he is hitting below his career marks with RISP of .340/.460/.492. Because of this we can expect some regression to aid his RBI total through the end of the year.
     
    For much of his career, fans have pleaded for Joe Mauer to "swing for the fences" or "take a chance" more, and the expectation was that he would have to sacrifice some average and OBP to do that, but much like in 2009, he is slugging better this year without the sacrifice, so how is he doing it??
     
    [TABLE=width: 500]



    BB%
    K%
    BABIP
    LD%
    GB%
    FB%


    2012
    14.0%
    13.7%
    .364
    25.0%
    52.6%
    22.4%


    2013
    12.1%
    19.0%
    .399
    28.1%
    45.7%
    26.2%


    Career
    12.2%
    11.0%
    .346
    23.4%
    50.1%
    26.4%
    [/TABLE]
     
    Mauer has two numbers that really stand out when you look at that table. K% and BABIP are both way up from last year and career, so both should be expected to regress in the coming months, which both have this month. In the month of June his K% is 11.3% and his BABIP is .345 compared to the month of May where he was sitting at 25.6% and .507(!!!!).
     
    (Think about that for a moment, in the month of May, Joe Mauer struck out in a quarter of his at bats, but half of the time, when he did put the ball in play, he got a hit. While obviously unsustainable, that is incredible! You've got to love baseball!)
     
    We may assume that since the K% is regressing that maybe he is turning back into old Joe Mauer, but in the month of May, Mauer hit 3 HR, and 12 doubles in 26 games. In the month of June, he has hit 3 HR and 6 doubles in 18 games. Basically his K% has regressed, but his power numbers have failed to, so that seems to imply that the "taking a big cut" or "swinging for the fences" strategy that would lead to an increase in power and strikeouts at the expense of his batting average is not something that is necessarily required in Joe Mauer. He is capable of hitting for a high average while still hitting for power without striking out a ton.
     
    To me the big key for Mauer sustaining this power, is the line drive percentage (LD%). For his career, Joe Mauer has been a ground ball hitter, but this year he has turned some of those ground balls into line drives without altering his flyball percentage in any meaningful way. Since, his LD% has jumped up a bit from both 2012 and his career, the natural assumption is to argue small sample size, but Fangraphs has discovered that line drive percentage stabilizes after 150 PA, so we seem to have reached the point where we can start thinking he is making an adjustment that is allowing him to square up the ball better. That's not to say he won't regress, he probably will, but we are at the point where it is much less fluky.
     
    So far, we can see that #7 is hitting for more power and the cause of it seems to be a jump in LD%, meaning he is squaring up the ball better than he has in the past. Now his home run per fly ball rate (12.7%) is the third highest of his career behind 2009 (20.4%) and his rookie year (17.1%). In May and June that rate has been around 15%, so are we seeing him get lucky, or are we seeing Joe Mauer just hit the ball harder than generally has? The LD% would seem to support the idea that he is hitting the ball harder.
     
    The question that remains is if this is a product of a change in approach or simply randomness in a 300 plate appearance sample.
     
    [TABLE=width: 500]


    [TD]O-Swing%

    Z-Swing%
    Swing%
    O-Contact%
    Z-Contact%
    Contact%
    Zone%


    2012
    22.2%
    48.8%
    35.2%
    79.7%
    91.9%
    87.9%
    48.8%


    2013
    26.5%
    52.4%
    39.0%
    72.8%
    87.5%
    82.4%
    48.4%


    Career
    23.6%
    50.6%
    36.8%
    79.9%
    92.4%
    88.3%
    49.1%
    [/TABLE]
     
    (If anybody isn't sure what is going on in the chart above O-Swing% and O-Contact% are out of zone swing and contact percentages, how often he swings and makes contact with pitches out the zone. Z-Swing% and Z-Contact% are in zone swing and contact percentages, how often he swings and makes contact with pitches in the zone. Swing% and Contact% are the total percentage of pitches Mauer has swung and made contact, respectively. Finally, Zone% is the number of pitches that Mauer has seen that have been in the Zone. All of this is based off of Pitchf/x data.)
     
    Now is where we are seeing that there may be a change in approach, he is swinging at the highest percentage of pitches in his career, outside of 2010. Now that would seem to say, maybe he's seeing more pitches in the zone and take a cut more often, but that is not the case based on his Zone%. He is swinging at more pitches out of the zone than ever before, which seems to give credence to the idea that he is taking some more chances (or getting fooled). To me, the piece that demonstrates more of a change in approach is the contact numbers. He is making the least contact of his career by 4 percentage points. That seems to demonstrate that he is taking some more chances, swinging a little harder, and in doing so making more solid contact, though at the expense of making some contact. This would explain the increase in strikeouts, though I cannot find monthly splits to see if it has regressed with the strikeouts.
     
    To me this strategy of sacrificing some contact to square the ball up a little better, which will allow for a few more hits to fall due to how much higher the BABIP is for line drives than groundballs, but will also result in a few more extra base hit. Now is it all sustainable or is it simply a blip, who knows, that is why we watch!
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