Coming into the year, I was a big believer in Austin Martin. Across 50 games after his post-trade deadline callup, he slashed .282/.374/365, good for a .740 OPS and a 108 OPS+. I viewed his as a Luis Arraez figure, except younger, faster, and more defensively talented.
For the first few weeks of the season, it seemed that I was correct. Martin was hitting .337 through May 10, making excellent contact and spraying singles across the field. His plate discipline was excellent, and he was virtually impossible to induce chase from. His strikeout rate was low, his OBP was high, and things were going excellent.
All of this changed in an instant shortly after Matt Wallner's demotion to St. Paul. Since May 10, he's hitting a stunning .190. All of the excellent factors that made him an incredible contributor and exemplar of what you want in a leadoff hitter have vanished. His value at the plate has cratered, and many a Twins fan is clamoring to see Wallner back up in Martin's place.
Is this justified, and is Martin still valuable?
Well, let's start with his defense. Martin has some excellent plays in the outfield, which would lead many to believe that he's a true master of right field. However, the results are a bit more modest, if still commendable. Martin has a Fielding Run Value of 2 and an Out Above Average to his name. Those are good numbers, but they don't justify having a complete black hole in the lineup at one of the easier positions on the defensive spectrum. Perhaps those who laud Martin as an outfield genius are thinking primarily of the admittedly excellent plays he tends to make a few times a month, such as this play from last year that helped Mick Abel throw a gem against his former team:
Perhaps, however, Twins fans were simply so perplexed (and horrified) by Matt Wallner's -8 OAA that he earned in the paltry time he spent in right field this year that anything approaching even passable defense resembles the Flash in our eyes.
The mention of Wallner brings up an important point, however; if not Martin, then who?
The Twins have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching this year. Today's callup of Kaelen Culpepper may help, but banking on an untested prospect to solve our problems is a tough sell for me. Wallner is mashing in Triple-A, but he's a left-handed hitter, and some of his core issues (K%, top-of-the-zone heaters) haven't been fully resolved, at least in my eyes. Walker Jenkins coming up right after Culpepper would cause all of Twins Territory to spontaneously combust in excitement, but against left-handed pitching, there's no promise of him performing immediately, either. Really, the only player who has Martin's defensive versatility, speed, and platoon advantage in St. Paul is Kyler Fedko. I'm not sure if the Twins are willing to give him another go just yet; batting .236 on the season is better than batting .000 on the season. That's an unfair comparison given Fedko's limited sample size, but you have to understand that he flew out to a position player during that blowout game in Arlington a few weeks ago. I have no reason to believe he's an MLB-caliber player right now. Maybe that'll change; unless it does because he goes hog-wild in AAA, or Martin becomes truly untenable, I see no reason to swap out one for the other.
Ironically, in an organization where the fans routinely bemoan our outfielder-heavy depth chart, there's no good replacement for Austin Martin right now. I think he'll finish the season on the 26-man roster; whether there'll be an apparent successor for him is another matter. Whether he'll prove that such a successor is necessary is under his control.
