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AidanAver

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  1. AidanAver

    Prospects
    The second pick for the Minnesota Twins in the 2022 draft was the left-handed flame thrower out of Alabama named Connor Prielipp. The Twin's Front Office was excited to be able to draft Prielipp 48th overall, and it showed with the Twins going over slot value and handing Prielipp a $1.825 million signing bonus. Since then, it appears that Connor Prielipp and his devastating fastball-slider mix have fallen off the face of the Earth, and so we must ask… Where in the world is Connor Prielipp? To answer this question, first, we must examine where Prielipp came from before he joined the Twins Organization.
    Prielipp arrived at the University of Alabama in 2020 after being ranked as the top left-handed pitcher and number two overall player out of the state of Wisconsin by Perfect Game USA. He backed up his highly touted prep status by becoming the first Freshman to pitch Opening Day for Alabama since Taylor Guilbeau started Opening Day for the Crimson Tide in 2012. Prielipp earned the win that day against my Northeastern Huskies, which was only the start of a magnificent Freshman campaign. Prielipp’s COVID shortened 2020 went to the tune of a 0.00 ERA in 21.0 IP across 4 starts. He struck out 35 batters compared to only 9 walks, and perhaps most impressively: gave up only 5 hits all year, leading to a 0.52 WHIP, lowest in the SEC among qualified pitchers. 
    After his incredible 2020, Prielipp was listed as the number 4 pitcher on Baseball America’s College top 150 list for the 2021 season, as well as being named a Preseason All-SEC team member, a First Team Preseason All-American by practically every major publication for college baseball, and was listed on the Golden Spikes Award Preseason Watch List by USA Baseball. The hype surrounding Prielipp extended beyond the realm of college baseball, as many MLB Draft evaluators pegged Prielipp as a potential 1st overall pick in a stacked 2022 draft class that included Jackson Holliday, Druw Jones, and fellow Twin and potential 1st overall pick Brooks Lee. Prielipp again earned the Opening Day nod for the Tide in 2021 and pitched 5 shutout innings against McNeese, picking up 8 strikeouts and only 1 walk in a 10-6 win over the Cowboys. Unfortunately, this is where the wheels begin to fall off for Prielipp’s journey. In Prielipp’s start against McNeese, it had turned out that he had suffered from an elbow injury. Prielipp took a two-month recovery to see if the elbow could heal on its own and returned to pitch one inning against Auburn. However, the break had not fully healed his elbow and Prielipp missed another month before making an appearance against LSU, which would end up being Prielipp’s final appearance in college baseball as he opted for Tommy John surgery which ended his 2021 and his 2022 seasons. 
    Connor Prielipp’s college career ended with an absurd 0.97 ERA, 15.1 K/9, and a 2.25 BB/9. Granted this is all with the caveat of only pitching 28 innings in his time at Tuscaloosa. However, his 95-mph fastball paired with his plus-plus slider still played, as he was able to prove himself in a post-surgery bullpen in front of MLB scouts before the 2022 MLB Draft. This bullpen and Prielipp’s prior pedigree convinced the Twins that the upside Prielipp had coming into 2021 was still there, leading to the Twins selecting Prielipp with the 48th pick in the 2022 Draft. 
    As is the norm with most drafted pitchers, Prielipp did not make an in-game appearance in pro ball in 2022, instead, the Twins were careful with him and his surgically repaired elbow, only allowing him to throw in the Instructional League. 
    Once Prielipp arrived at Spring Training in 2023, he once again blew the Twins staff away with his raw stuff. He showcased the same fastball and slider but also showed a low 80s changeup that he did not showcase often at Alabama. After impressing in the spring, Prielipp made his professional debut with High-A Cedar Rapids on April 9th, 2023, against Peoria. The Twins once again wanting to be careful with Prielipp’s arm limited him to a 4-inning outing in which he gave up 3 earned runs, struck out 3 batters, and walked another 2. After this start, the Twins placed Prielipp on the 7-Day IL with arm soreness and inflammation. At the time the Front Office played down any concerns that they might have had with this injury, believing that Prielipp’s arm would respond well to rest. After a month-long absence, Prielipp returned in June to make a rehab start with the FCL Twins. Prielipp’s rehab start lasted 2.2 innings in which he allowed 2 earned runs, struck out 4 batters, and walked 2. After his rehab start, Prielipp and the Twins made the decision to operate on his elbow yet again. On July 14th, 2023, Prielipp had an internal brace placed in his left elbow by Dr. Keith Meister. This can be perceived as good news as this is a less invasive procedure than traditional Tommy John, which usually requires a less intensive, albeit lengthy rehab. 
    Now that we know where Prielipp came from, where do we go from here? Prielipp projects to return from surgery this summer, yet, with less than 40 innings pitched in the last 4 years, it is difficult to project where Prielipp will go from here. However, MLB Pipeline has Prielipp ranked as the 7th prospect in the Twins Organization, and as the 3rd highest pitcher in the organization, ahead of arms like David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Matt Canterino. The reasoning for this is quite simple: Connor Prielipp’s slider is the best pitch the Twins have in their farm system. MLB Pipeline has it ranked as a 70 grade on the 20-80 scale. The pitch’s sharp vertical movement paired with the ability to touch 90mph on it, and showing that he can throw it consistently for strikes means it is a lethal tool for the left-hander. Prielipp showed the Twins that the pitch was still there after his first operation both in pre-draft workouts and later in 2023 Spring Training. The key to Prielipp’s success is showing that the pitch is still there after his second operation. If Prielipp returns from his surgery and can use his slider as he was able to in the past, he could likely become a key cog for the Twins’ rotation plans.
    Prielipp looks to be ready for MLB action in around 2026, where he could be a monster out of the bullpen or a potential frontline starter. The Twins’ obvious priority is to get a healthy season of development from Prielipp, but it should not shock anyone if they decide to build Prielipp up as a starter as they currently are with another prospect with monster stuff and injury concerns: Matt Canterino. If all goes right for Prielipp in his rehab and development, the Twins could have another feather in their cap from their already very impressive 2022 pitching draft class. 
  2. AidanAver

    Off-Season
    A lot has been said about the Twins’ offseason, especially regarding comments made by members of ownership and those in baseball operations about the payroll decreasing.
     Some frustration, on one hand, is warranted considering the optics that inevitably surround explicitly telling fans that payroll will decrease immediately after the most successful season in the past 20 years. However, with how the roster is constructed, spending a lot of money in free agency never seemed likely. The Twins have a lot of young talent under team control for a significant amount of time, including the likes of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Jhoan Duran just to name a few. Having that level of talent making pre-arbitration or arbitration one numbers is just naturally conducive to having a lower payroll, and it never made sense to spend for players to play positions that are already filled with those young talents. That being said, there is some room for spending during the 2024 offseason. So, let’s go back in time to November 2nd, 2023, and re-do the Twins’ Offseason.
    I am going to constrain myself to some rules for this thought exercise. The first rule is that I am going to be as realistic as possible so unfortunately, Shohei Ohtani: you are not a Twin. My second rule is that for any players that have already been signed, I will be using their real-world contracts here. For example, the San Francisco Giants signed outfielder Jorge Soler to a 3-year, $42 million contract. Therefore, if I were to sign him to the Twins, it would have to be for 3 years and $42 million. This, again, is to ensure as much realism as possible for my exercise. With that out of the way, let’s get started.
    1.   LHP Shōta Imanaga (4-Years, $53 Million)
         With Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda both being free agents, the Twins have a need to fill in the rotation. In 2023, Sonny and Kenta contributed 6.8 fWAR to the team. Maeda’s 1.5 fWAR contribution can be replaced in-house by Chris Paddack’s full return to the rotation. FanGraphs’ projections system projects the 50th percentile outcome for Paddack’s 2024 to be worth about 2.1 fWAR. That still leaves 4.7 fWAR to be replaced. Another portion of that will be filled by the progression in the young careers of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as they (hopefully) have healthier and better seasons when they enter their 3rd full year of service time. That still leaves room to fill with an outside addition, because resigning Sonny Gray never made sense as Sonny Gray himself is unlikely to replicate his 2023 season and giving 2024 Sonny Gray 3 years and $75 million never made sense due to the very likely regression of the aging pitcher. This was made more apparent by the disparity between his expected 2023 ERA, which was calculated by Statcast using his batted ball data, falling at 3.66, and his actual 2.79 ERA. While trading for a starting pitcher with control makes the most sense, teams with starters to move like Milwaukee and Miami seem unlikely to move anyone.
         This brings us to Shōta Imanaga, the 30-year-old left-hander out of NPB’s Yokohama Baystars. The 5 '10 pitcher pitched to a 2.80 ERA in 148 IP while pitching to a 10.9 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in NPB action. He led World Baseball Classic pitchers in Stuff+, a measurement of the movement and velocity of pitchers. This was off the back of his 4-Seam Fastball that, while it sits in the low 90s, has nearly 20 inches of induced vertical break, meaning most batters swing under the pitch expecting it to drop more than it does. To compare, Joe Ryan’s fastball averages 17 inches of induced vertical break, helping him strike out an absurd 29.3% of his batters faced. Imanaga profiles to have a fastball with a very similar effect, while also having better control than Ryan does with his fastball. Imanaga backs up his fastball with a very versatile arsenal, common for Japanese pitchers. He also throws a sweeper, a traditional slider, a splitter, and throws in a curveball, cutter, and changeup for fun. The Japanese pitcher’s fastball-slider combo is something that the Twins have valued in their pitchers and would allow him to fit right into the Twins’ rotation. In real life, Imanaga signed with the Chicago Cubs for 4-years and $53 million with player options in 2026 and 2027 and a club option in 2028, bringing the total potential value of the deal to $80 million, something the Twins could afford, especially with the year-to-year flexibility this contract gives the player and team.
         Some would point to the Twins’ failure in previous NPB dealings such as Tsuyoshi Nishioka as a reason the Twins should be hesitant to sign NPB talent. However, pitchers transitioning from NPB to MLB have a much better track record than hitters such as Nishioka. The current Falvey-led front office is also radically different from the Terry Ryan-led regime that last gave contracts to NPB talent. Shōta Imanaga looks to be a very good starting pitcher in MLB and one that could absolutely contribute to the Minnesota Twins’ rotation.
    2.   1B Rhys Hoskins (2- Years, $34 million)
         Perhaps the Twins’ biggest holes throughout the 2023 season was their weaknesses against left-handed pitching and an inability to get consistent value out of their first basemen. The Twins hit a league average 100 WRC+ against LHP compared to a 111 WRC+ against RHP, ranked 5th in MLB. While Alex Kirilloff had a good 2023, he also showcased an inability to hit left-handed pitching, and his health remains a question. After missing most of 2023, Jose Miranda also needs to reestablish himself as a viable option for the Twins. A great way to kill both of those birds would be to sign the former Phillies’ first baseman: Rhys Hoskins. Though Hoskins missed all of the 2023 season after tearing his ACL in Spring Training, he had a potent 2022 where he hit a .794 OPS (123 OPS+) with 30 home runs. Importantly, he had a .945 OPS (163 OPS+) in 174 PAs against left-handed hitting. While Hoskins’ defense is not very good, posting -6 Outs Above Average in 2022, however, 1B is the least significant defensive position. As long as whoever plays there can catch a seed from Carlos Correa, it’ll do.
         In real life, the slugger signed with the Milwaukee Brewers for two years and $34 million. The deal includes an opt-out after the first year, as well as a mutual option for a third year that would raise the total value to $48 million. A right-handed hitter was the Twins’ biggest need going into this offseason, and with that price and fit, Rhys Hoskins is likely the best option the Twins could have had.
         This is the one that gets to me personally; if Rhys had any interest in playing for the Twins with the same price and contract structure, that is a deal that the front office should absolutely have pounced on and one that the Twins could end up regretting.
    3.   What I’d Keep
         The Twins did work to improve the roster in real life, and there is plenty that I would replicate in this scenario. The Twins project to have one of the strongest bullpens in all of baseball for 2024, much of which is thanks to moves made this offseason.
         In this universe, I would replicate the Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon trades, Although these two were fan favorites, they unfortunately did not have guaranteed roles on the 2024 roster with the emergence of Edouard Julien and Willi Castro. The combined return of Justin Topa, Anthony DeSclafani, Steven Okert as well as borderline top-100 prospect Gabriel Gonzalez do enough to improve the bullpen, depth, and farm system to justify moving Polanco and Gordon to Seattle and Miami respectively.
         The other move I would replicate is the Jay Jackson signing. Jay Jackson is an intriguing arm with a plus slider and fastball. He was signed for 1 year and $1.3 million with a club option that can raise the total value to 2 years and $5.45 million. For that low of a price, there is very little that can happen that can cause the Twins to regret this move.
         As Rhys Hoskins is a Twin in this alternate universe, there is no role for Carlos Santana to be on the roster, so that deal won’t be replicated.
     
    For the first year in what feels like forever, the Twins came into the off-season looking very competitive and only requiring tweaks to the roster to be able to continue to compete. With the additions of Shōta Imanaga and Rhys Hoskins, the Twins could solidify themselves as powerhouses in the AL.
    That being said, the Twins real-life roster looks to be very good on the backs of Pablo Lopez, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton. So, even if this offseason was a frustrating one, enjoy this upcoming summer, as it looks to be one of the most fun ones in recent memory.
     
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