As has been mentioned in previous posts, the Marlins desperately want... NEED... to move salary. The only thing that had prevented the Marlins from selling off pitching prior to the start f the season was the fact that they made the playoffs last year. How would that look? dismantling the strength of a team on the heels of a playoff appearance? It was abundantly clear that with the Braves being the Braves, and Philly improving, that at best Miami was a third place team and most likely out of the playoff chase.
Early on I figured about 1 month the front office would realize they are not a playoff team. Could this realization come after just 8 games??? Starting 0-8 should help clarify their true standing this year.
The Twins should be in position just 6 games into the season to make a big move.
Call up Miami, NOW, find out what it would take to get both Jesus Luzardo and Alcantara.
Luzardo immediately upgrades our rotation this year, and the pairing of Luzardo and Alcantara next year with Pablo, Ryan, and that leaves pitchers like Ober and Paddack as #5 starters.
While this move is 100% focused on improving our roster this year, it sets us up incredibly well next year and beyond.
With both pitchers on board next year the Twins would have the following potential starters under team control...
Alcantara through 2027
Luzardo through 2026
Pablo through 2027
Ryan through 2027
Ober through2027
Paddack just through next year
that's a solid 6 deep And we haven't even spoken about the young arms who should be ready to fill in gaps such as...
Varland, Festa, Raya, Soto, and others
So what would it take? and would it be worth it? It will take some top tier talent for sure. If Lewis had not been injured... AGAIN, I would suggest it would be worth moving Lee. Now he has even more long term value for Twins if Lewis is Buxton Jr.
How about Emmanual Rodriguez to headline a deal? If Jenkins can stay in CF long term, then that makes Rodriguez a bit more expendable. would a package of either Rodriguez or Gonzalez, along with something like Danny De Andrade, Yunior Severino, and a top 20 Twins pitching prospect get a deal done?
If not what should the Twins give up for that pair of starters If...WHEN Miami makes them available?
While it is often said that the small moves are the moves that typically end up winning championships, blockbusters are much more fun to theorize on. A complete hypothetical MEGA deal here.
And in that vane (or is it vein?) lets play another round of "Who Says No??!!"
The Twins have some high quality prospects on the position side. Miami has some high quality major league pitchers and pitching prospects.
In a trade where Miami moves THREE of its top pitchers for TWO of the Twins top prospects who says no?
Miami sending Jesus Luzardo, the injured Alcantara and older prospect Max Meyer in exchange for Brooks Lee and one of either Emmanuel Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins.
Alcantara is an absolute ACE!!!, btu he will be lost for the entire 2024. Does Miami want to pay him $9M this year to NOT pitch and $17M in a comeback year next year? chances are probably not. Luzardo ha a breakout year after a strong but limited 2022. but last year was the first year he has pitched over 100 innings. IS he a sell high candidate with 2 more years of control after this year? more than likely. Max Meyer is an uber talented but super high injury risk home town kid. Meyer will be 25 before the start fo the season, while not ancient by any means that is starting to get up there in age for a prospect. He is just now coming back from a full year off due to injury. so there is risk there but also has huge upside. All three of these pitchers have enough warts to make them tradeable, but also enough upside to make them worth the risk. This could be the perfect Now & Later deal for the Twins. They add an immediate #2 (or better) to the rotation for 2024 in Luzardo, have another high upside arm in Meyer who is just starting his arbitration clock, and also have a future ace in Alcantara in the wings for next year.
The Twins sending Brooks Lee a top 20 overall prospect as the starting point in this trade could smart a bit, especially if Correa or Lewis lose time due to injury, but it is well worth the risk for top end pitching when we have the infield depth we have with Lewis, Correa, Julien, Farmer, Gordon, Polanco (for now). plus even Austin Martin as a potential utility guy. Just 1 top 20 overall pick does not get this deal done, we would also need to include one of either Emmanuel Rodriguez, or the most recent #5 overall pick Walker Jenkins. Both with potential massive upsides, but also both a couple years out. Personally I would rather move Rodriguez than Jenkins, but that might be filed under "DUH" since Jenkins is younger and a top 15 overall prospect.
SO regardless of if you go Lee & Jenkins, or Lee and Rodriguez, for Meyer, Luzardo, Alcantara, who says no, Twins or Marlins?
From the "zig when other people zag " department. Here are a few trades/moves I would love to see.. With most of my posts of course would never happen, and in fact would probably be HORRIBLE moves in general. haha!!!
1) Yes I am still chasing Miami Stanton vs Yankee Stanton, but I would love to see Giancarlo on this roster. He fits perfectly with our "strike out all you want as long as you hit 35 HR" philosophy. he strikes out 1/3 of the time and has a batting average of .200 over the last 2 years. Is it too much of a stretch to say "just 3 years ago..."? Well, Just three years ago in in the 2012 season, he hit .273 slugged at an .870 OPS clip equating to a 3+ WAR. Yes he has a full no trade, Yes he makes WAY more than his current output warrants, but he is getting "in the best shape of his career" this offseason, that is exciting!!! hehe. the ZIGZAO quotient is off the charts here, as we are looking to slash payroll, not add to it. and we have some decent young players who would otherwise fill the OF/DH role. The Yankees don't care about payroll, or luxury tax concerns, but I am sure they wouldn't mid too much moving his contract all the same. Lets take a short term hit for a long term gain!! The Yankees just moved a ton of their top pitching prospects for Soto, but there is still some quality to be had. We say we will send them Trevor Larnach or Max Kepler in exchange for Stanton, and in exchange for us taking on 100% of his contract for 2023 & 2024, giving Yankees some space to dip below the tax and reset penalty (and have them on the hook for 2025 & 2026). This Allows the Twins some long term payroll flexibility.. and increases his "re-trade value" as now he will only cost the newly acquiring team at most $64M over 4 years or an AAV of $16M. in exchange for this we get back Luis Gil (former Twin prospect with big arm coming back from injury) and young prospect Brando Mayea who has INSANE speed!!
Twins won't take on $, Stanton wont waive no trade, but would be fun to get Stanton's RH bat in the lineup as LF/DH.
2) Luis Arraez 2.0: How about giving the ol' Miami Marlins a call. there was a great trade for both clubs last year. Twins got an Ace while Miami got a batting champ. Lets start with our desire for pitching. There were rumors Miami may listen on Alcantara due to impending big money coming his way. Now he is out for 2024 for TJ surgery. while trying to make a move for Alcantara could be good long term wouldn't do anything for 2024, Id still trade for him, and the Twins have a history of paying pitchers to rehab TJ. There have been rumbling so Edward Cabrera being available, and being another near break out pitching star. There is Jesus Luzardo, who was once a top pitching prospect in Dodgers system, and depending on who you talk to was either coveted, or hated by Twins FO during potential trade with Dodgers, either way he is a mid 3 ERA strike out pitcher just coming into his own at 26. finally a youngster like Minnesota's own Max Meyer could be an intriguing get. super high potential but injury history. ANY of the above would be great gets for the Twins, and each of them in their own rights has the potential to turn into an ace just like Lopez did. SO who is the Arraez we give up in exchange? well one of Miami's biggest needs is a SS. and well, just like moving Arraez hurt, getting a top shelf pitcher again will sting a bit. Shortstop we seem pretty stacked. Middle infield overall. No I do not believe Polanco comes into play here, But if Correa is here for the long haul, and we still have Lewis at 3B, and Juline at 2B, Where exactly will Brooks Lee get his ABs? We already traded our #1 pick from 2021 (Chase Petty) why not go ahead and move our #1 pick from 2022? Brooks Lee could be a star, and we are 1 injury away from him being called up, BUT it takes quality to get quality..
3) Speaking of that Chase Petty and revisiting past trade partners, How about revisiting the "Twincinatti" connection. after sending off Petty to Cinci for Gray, and then Steer and Encarnacion Strand for Mahle (HORRIBLE trade) why not reach back out see what we can bring back from Cinci? Their biggest need is pitching, and we aren't in great shape to send any out, but they do have potential areas to upgrade in the 1B/DH/LF where their depth chart currently has Steer as starter at 1B & LF, and E-Strand as DH and backup 1B, Could we entice Cinci with Kepler and Kirilloff, and even throwing in low A prospect to get Chase Petty back? Petty doesn't seem to have the same high projection as when drafted, but should still be a solid #2 in the future. This wouldn't improve us right away this year, but would position us nicely in the future getting Petty back. and having Wallner replace Kepler and potential of Miranda back at 1B to replace Kirilloff, we would not be losing a whole lot. PLUS, in order to replace Kirilloff we could also...
4) Go get the OTHER player I have been pining for for years. Dom Smith could be had relatively cheaply via trade. Gold Glove type defense. He may not strike out as much as we would liek our hitters to, as he only strikes out at a 17% clip, but he can still be a great presence on this team. He has the natural leadership of a Boomstick. and good for the Twins he is cheap.
No these will not happen, and yes they may range from "dang you are dumb!! to "that is just pointless" or somewhere in between coming in as "redumbdant". BUT dang that would be Frankenstein Funhouse to see all four happen!!
REAL trade scenarios come out next week!!
