Seth Stohs

It's Gone-Saul-Viss...

I'm thinking he'd be just outside the top 10, similar ranking to Pearson, probably just ahead of him...

While most of the official Winter Meetings meetings don't start until Monday, baseball people from major league, minor leagues and independent leagues are traveling to Orlando, Florida today. It's been a fairly quiet offseason so far, but the two big puzzle pieces that were holding things up have been resolved in the last 72 hours, so it should be a very busy Winter Meetings. Please feel free to check this article out all day, and post any rumors that you may see or read or hear. There will be plenty of rumors, I'm sure. If the Twins make any moves, Twins Daily will have an article on it within moments. Image courtesy of Melissa Quinn (melissaquinn.blogspot.com While most of the official Winter Meetings meetings don't start until Monday, baseball people from major league, minor leagues and independent leagues are traveling to Orlando, Florida today. It's been a fairly quiet offseason so far, but the two big puzzle pieces that were holding things up have been resolved in the last 72 hours, so it should be a very busy Winter Meetings. Please feel free to check this article out all day, and post any rumors that you may see or read or hear. There will be plenty of rumors, I'm sure. If the Twins make any moves, Twins Daily will have an article on it within moments. Until the last couple of days, it's fair to say that the Hot Stove has been lukewarm at best. Then Shohei Otani made his decision to sign with the Angels. And on Saturday, the Marlins and Yankees agreed to a deal in which reigning National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton will join Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez in The Bronx. So now, the Hot Stove is preheating. Things are lined up for this to be the busiest Winter Meetings in recent years. Or, we could be set up for disappointment and have to wait even longer. Let's not forget that the Winter Meetings are set up to actually hold a lot of meetings. Many are with league officials. Some are to determine new rules, or to discuss topics like pace of game and more. While we as fans only want to hear about the meetings between GMs or between teams and agents, the Winter Meetings are much bigger than that. The Twins offseason has been quiet in terms of transactions. Here's the quick rundown: 40-man roster decisions - Several players have been removed from the 40-man roster, and when they were, most were claimed. Niko Goodrum was outrighted, but he became a free agent and left to join the Tigers. In the last couple of weeks, the Twins have signed six or seven players to minor league contracts. The most exciting minor league signing to this point is catcher Bobby Wilson. Probably the most exciting additions to the organization have been more additions to the front office. 27-year-old Jeremy Zoll comes to the Twins as their new minor league director. He's made several hires including a new minor league pitching coordinator (Paul Maki replacing Eric Rasmussen). They added Tanner Swanson as a minor league catching coordinator. Brad Steil became the pro scouting director .He hired John Manuel from Baseball America. Former reliever Wesley Wright retired to join the Twins as a scout. There have been changes in the international scouting department. And they have added several more front office types. Some we have read about. Some have gone under the radar. And some more positions will continue to be added. The Winter Meetings also is a place where people can go to interview with teams for prospective jobs. Don't be surprised if we keep hearing about additions to the front office. Also, we learned that Tommy Watkins will be the Chattanooga Lookouts manager in 2018. Toby Gardenhire will take over as the manager of the Cedar Rapids Kernels where coaches Brian Dinkelman will remain hitting coach and JP Martinez will remain pitching coach. At a minimum, they still need to hire a manager for the Rochester Red Wings (Mike Quade is taking a roving instructor position) and the Ft. Myers Miracle. But let's be honest, we want to hear about player acquisitions, right? The Twins made one of the biggest turnarounds in MLB history in 2017. They went from 59 wins in 2016 to 85 wins in 2017. Now the challenge is to find a way to bump that win total up to 92 or so in 2018. So here's a quick reminder of what the Twins need... 1.) Starting Pitching 2.) Relief Pitching 3.) Pitching ... ... ... 8.) Maybe a right-handed bench bat Will the Twins be active in the free agent market? Will they be more active in the trade market? Likely the answer is Yes in both cases. I tend to think they'll be more active in the trade market as it relates to starting pitching, and I expect they'll be fairly active on the free agent market with relievers. The asking prices at this point for starting pitchers, at least those top four options (Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb) are pretty much silly. But that's just money and a draft pick whereas a trade would cost multiple players. As for the relievers, there are probably a dozen or more guys who will get three or four years at $7-9 million per year. Plenty of options. So, will it be disappointing if the Twins don't make a couple of moves this week? Yes. But I think they will. Will it mean they were not an active participant at the Winter Meetings if they don't finalize a deal? Not at all. I would suspect that they'll be one of the busier teams there in terms of meetings held. As always, the Winter Meetings presents an opportunity for the meetings, while the actual transactions can take place in the coming weeks. AL Central The Royals are likely to lose free agents Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas, or at least a couple of them. There are rumors that Danny Duffy is available. You' have to assume that Alex Gordon and probably Ian Kennedy are guys they'd love to trade, but there likely won't be much market for them. The Royals may be in full rebuild mode. The White Sox acknowledged that they were rebuilding a year ago when they traded Adam Eaton and Chris Sale for a huge supply of top-end prospects. They continued that in-season with trades of David Robertson, Todd Frazier and Jose Quintana for more prospects. Is Jose Abreu on the market? Probably, and anyone else on that roster who costs more than a couple million dollars might be too. The Tigers are an interesting group. They made some trades during the 2017 season, including getting rid of JD Martinez and Justin Verlander. Rumors are that teams are calling on Ian Kinsler. They likely want to continue to push a rebuild. Ron Gardenhire was hired as their manager. He stole Joe Vavra from the Twins and named him their quality control coach. Steve Liddle (bench coach) and Rick Anderson (bullpen coach) are also on his staff. Cleveland got to Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. In 2017, they lost to the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. They have good starting pitchers. They have a strong bullpen. They've got a good offense. But Carlos Santana and Bryan Shaw are free agents, and I would think they would want both back. They will likely remain busy. Rule 5 Draft Finally, the Rule 5 draft will take place on Thursday morning. The Twins have the potential to lose a couple of players. Nick Burdi and Jake Reed would seem most likely candidates to be lost while Luke Bard and Kohl Stewart could also be lost. The Twins 40-man roster is still at 36, so they could add a player in the Rule 5 draft if they choose to. Enjoy the week. Click refresh here at Twins Daily often. As noted, we'll be sure to post articles of any moves that the Twins make. Later, you can expect to learn more about any players and/or prospects that the Twins may acquire. If you haven't already registered, be sure to do so and add your thoughts to these articles and rumors. View full article

Tommy Watkins has been confirmed as the manager of Chattanooga. Toby Gardenhire has been confirmed as the manager of Cedar Rapids. Jake Mauer will not be in the organization in 2018. Article here.

While Thrylos and I often disagree... when it comes to prospect rankings, that's the beauty of them. I don't expect anyone to agree 100% with my rankings. I've seen players in Cedar Rapids every year. I've been at spring training and hung out a lot on the minor league fields something like 4 of the last 5 years or something. Thrylos gets to Red Wings games in Lehigh Valley. And, I know he's been in Ft. Myers for spring training too. I think he and I have both been on the minor league side at the same time... He may see Player X do something and start paying more and more attention to him. I may be over on another field at that time and see another player do something and my opinion of him goes up or down a little. To me, that's what makes these lists fun.He really likes Rainis Silva, has for years. I am higher on Kirilloff than he is. There are (gasp) probably a lot more players that we have similar opinions on. It's all good.

12 feels a little bit high, but I'd have to go back and look. I mean, this was a really good draft for the Twins... The international money deals were unusual to this year because of the Braves situation. There were several other trades... And there were a few guys who really stepped up. But like I said somewhere... the difference between, say, 41 and 70 is all about opinion.

I would guess he'd get a deal where he'll make around $1 million in MLB and something like $250,000 while in the minors (pro-rated, of course)... I don't know about limitations.

I definitely agree... He's legit!

I think McIver can definitely be more than an org arm. He's got good stuff. He's left-handed. He's pitched in short relief, in long-relief, in spot starts. He has a chance... He's just a notch below Vasquez and Moran in my opinion... But I need to also reiterate. The difference between prospect 40 and prospect 85 is not huge. McIver has put himself by continuing to move up and now having success late in the year in AA. That means he's got a shot.

We're all getting to know them, and we'll learn more about them the next two years. As I've mentioned, this is preliminary. Landon Leach is likely to move up this quite a bit. I do think he's got a chance to be more of a reliever (whereas most believe that Enlow will be a starter). So that's why I have him a little lower. But you make a good point. I've said elsewhere that I thought Pearson could be anywhere between 12 and 20, and Banuelos could be anywhere from 18-25 or so.

LHP, came from the Yankees... could pitch for the Twins... wonder if he'll move to the bullpen?

I think they'll always get the best available, but they have talked about developing waves too so that as players go or injuries happen, you can keep the train rolling.

They signed veteran Bobby Wilson to a minor league deal, so he'll likely be one of their catchers.

Over the past month, I wrote up quick profiles for my preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects rankings. It’s preliminary because over the last two months, I have been working on profiles, backgrounds and scouting reports for about 170 Twins minor leaguers for the soon-to-be-released 2018 Twins Prospect Handbook. Along with Cody Christie and Tom Froemming, we’ve been putting in a lot of hours to produce the 10th annual handbook. More information will be coming to Twins Daily around Christmas. Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily Over the past month, I wrote up quick profiles for my preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects rankings. It’s preliminary because over the last two months, I have been working on profiles, backgrounds and scouting reports for about 170 Twins minor leaguers for the soon-to-be-released 2018 Twins Prospect Handbook. Along with Cody Christie and Tom Froemming, we’ve been putting in a lot of hours to produce the 10th annual handbook. More information will be coming to Twins Daily around Christmas. But I thought it would be good to take a look at the Top 50 rankings in its totality to see what it is showing us. Are there any themes? Positions of strength, weakness, etc? With that, here is the full list of my preliminary Top 50 Twins prospects. Please note that this is not necessarily my final rankings. Those will appear in the prospect handbook. (last year's rankings in parentheses, or how acquired) Here are a few themes from this prospect ranking: The New Guys On Wednesday night, the Twins traded $1 million in international bonus pool money to the Angels and the Mariners. In return, they acquired the Mariners fifth-round pick in 2017, catcher David Banuelos. From the Angels, the Twins acquired their third- round pick in 2017, outfielder Jacob Pearson. Immediately, I was getting asked where these two prospects would fit into my rankings. Well, I haven’t had a lot of time yet to research or talk to people, so these are subject to change. As you can see, I ranked Pearson #13, two spots below the Twins third- round pick, Blayne Enlow. Both players competed in Louisiana high schools before the draft. Pearson was the state’s player of the year. I ranked Banuelos #21. The Twins fifth-round pick this year was Andrew Bechtold, and he’s ranked a little further down the list, at #30 for now. Banuelos is a valuable prospect for a team in that really strong defensive catchers have a lot of value. The fact that there are question marks with his bat keep me from ranking him too much higher than this. The 2017 Draft It’s no surprise to see several Twins 2017 draft picks in a Top 50, but it is really nice to see the high impact prospects that show up at the top of the list. Royce Lewis is the new #1. Brent Rooker and Blayne Enlow are also in my Top 10. That’s some quality talent brought in. But second-round pick Landon Leach probably should be higher than where I have him. Charlie Barnes is a high-floor player who could move up quickly. And, Bechtold is a guy who gets on base a ton, could hit for average and could develop some power. I’m also quite high on sixth-round pick Ricky De La Torre, who made the list. And, frankly, the more I research a guy like Derek Molina (14th round), the more I consider the idea of putting him near the back of this list. Then add in the acquisitions of Pearson and Banuelos, two guys that were in Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects in the 2017 draft, and that’s a great job of bringing in talent! Relievers Too Low Those that have been following me for years know that I tend to rank relievers lower on prospect rankings than their potential value in the big leagues might be. Consider that I ranked Trevor Hildenberger #42 a year ago, knowing he had the ability to be a good MLB reliever, and my point is illustrated. I really struggled this year with ranking relievers. You see a bunch at the end because those are are guys that I think could get to the big leagues and be quality relievers. But, as we’ve watched Nick Burdi and JT Chargois and Mason Melotakis need Tommy John surgery and struggle to be healthy, it’s such a challenging job. So, John Curtiss is the highest ranked prospect for me this year. I believe he has the stuff to be a closer in time. Tyler Jay is next. When he was considered a potential starter, I had him in the Top 10 prospects. Now that he’s been moved to the bullpen (and fought injuries all year), he drops. Youth is Served It’s not unusual to see prospect rankings have a lot of very young, toolsy players ranked high. If you look at my prospects, particularly the #4 through #11 range, you see just that. They are easy to get excited about while at the same time understanding that they have a long way to go, and with that, a lot of development. Some will take those necessary strides forward. Some won’t. That’s the nature of player development. But with guys like Akil Baddoo and Brusdar Graterol in the mix, fans should start getting excited about what they could be. Experience is Served While tools and ceiling are important, floor should be factored in as well. For instance, Mitch Garver’s floor is major league backup catcher. I mean, he’s basically there already. His ceiling is quality starting catcher. He’s coming off of a terrific 2017 season in the highest level of the minors. There needs to be value in having played at the higher level. I subscribe to the thought that once a guy experiences good success in AA and/or AAA, he is pretty close. Luke Bard put up some crazy numbers in AA and then in AAA this year. Sure, he’s 27 and hasn’t played in the big leagues, but I still think he could become a solid MLB reliever. A Combination of Both There’s a reason that guys like Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero and Felix Jorge rank where they do. They’ve overcome the struggles of taking their talent and working hard and experiencing success and finding themselves putting up good numbers in the upper levels. They all have the potential to be quality major league starters, but they have worked up such that their floor is higher too. Trades Help Too While the Twins were surprising everyone with their turnaround success in 2017, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine never really wavered from their comments about continuing to build and continuing to look for talent, particularly pitching, everywhere. Since they’ve taken over, they have traded for Zack Littell, Dietrich Enns, Gabriel Moya and Tyler Watson. (as well as the two players this week) Two of those pitchers pitched in the big leagues in 2017. Moya jumped straight to the Twins after completing the Southern League playoffs. Littell went 19-1 and won the MiLBY for the best starting pitcher in the minor leagues this year. They also talked about being able to provide pitching in waves, and that’s where Tyler Watson fits in. He’s just 20 and pitched in low A. He isn’t a top prospect, but he’s got the size and the pitches to move up these rankings significantly. Injuries The Twins system is deep with talent, but there were a lot of injuries (several significant) in 2017. Alex Kirilloff had Tommy John surgery in spring training. Nick Burdi had surgery in June. JT Chargois missed most of the season with more elbow issues. Jake Reed and Stephen Gonsalves missed time early in the season with minor injuries. Luis Arraez tore his ACL in his third game of the season and missed the rest of the year. Kohl Stewart was on the DL a couple of times with knee problems. Tyler Jay missed most of the season with shoulder/neck/biceps injury. On the positive, Lewis Thorpe and Brusdar Graterol made their returns from Tommy John surgery and both appear to be back to their old selves. Tyler Benninghoff just returned from Tommy John late in the season. Depth While I don’t think the Twins farm system will rank near the top of the rankings that will come out in February, I do think this is a very exciting group of prospects right now. While aside from Royce Lewis, there may not be any Buxton/Sano/Berrios caliber prospects, there are a lot of very good prospects, guys who can play a significant role in the big leagues. There are quite a few players (including some pitchers) who have high-level ceilings, but obviously further development will be required to reach it. Who Could We See in 2018? Here are guys that have a legit chance to contribute in the big leagues in 2018: Stephen Gonsalves, Nick Gordon, Fernando Romero, LaMonte Wade, Mitch Garver, Zack Littell, John Curtiss, Felix Jorge, Zack Granite, Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Gabriel Moya, Aaron Slegers Jake Reed, Luke Bard, JT Chargois, Tom Hackimer. Obviously, there needs to be opportunity. Not all of these guys will play in the big leagues, but they could. But as you look at that list, you see a lot of pitching, both starters and relievers, Who will be this year’s Trevor Hildenberger? Will any of these starters have a major impact on the Twins this year. Please feel free to ask questions or find your own story lines or trends within these rankings. Please ask questions and discuss whatever it is you’d like. I’ll try to answer questions throughout the day and throughout the weekend. And please, support the Twins minor league coverage at Twins Daily by purchasing the Twins Prospect Handbook 2018 in a couple of weeks. As has been the case in past years, it’ll be available in paperback (in time for Twins Fest) and electronically. Oh, and just for fun… wanna know who prospects 51-60 were for me? Here’s some exclusive bonus information for Twins Daily readers… Here you go: 51. Jordan Balazovic, 52. Mitchell Kranson, 53. Shane Carrier, 54. Hector Lujan, 55. Cody Stashak, 56. Victor Tademo, 57. Chris Paul, 58. Sean Poppen, 59. Edwar Colina, 60. TJ White View full article

The Twins have signed infielders Leonardo Reginnato and Gregorio Petit, and catcher Brock Stassi to minor league deals.

Per Matt Eddy, the Twins have signed 17-year-old RHP Donny Breek from The Netherlands. From the 2-minutes of research I did, he actually signed in early October, shortly after the World Cup. He throws 145 kph (or 90 mph, if you prefer).

I have no doubt they'll use the remaining $1.25 million of their international funds. They could make another trade or two for the money. They could sign a few more players or someone like Jelfrey Marte for the full amount. Lots of options yet. They're both Top 20 guys.

Basically yes, though they can still use the money on something.

In a second move, Ken Rosenthal writes that the Twins have also acquired OF Jacob Pearson, a 19-year-old outfielder from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for $1 million in international money. I wonder who they might want to acquire with those funds? Pearson was the Angels 3rd round pick in 2017 out of high school in Louisiana. Rosenthal's Tweet: Source: #Angels acquire international slot money from #Twins for OF Jacob Pearson, who received a $1M signing bonus as a third-round pick in 2017. Clearly adding money for Ohtani, just as #Mariners also did tonight.

The Twins announced that they have acquired Catcher David Banuelos from the Mariners in exchange for $1 million in international money. I wonder who they might want to sign with that money? Banuelos was the Mariners 5th round pick in 2017 out of Long Beach State. The Twins need catching depth.

Yeah, that was the first day I got to Ft. Myers last year...

Yesterday, Nick wrote about a forgotten player who hopes to be a factor in the Twins pitching staff in 2018, Phil Hughes. Another pitcher finds himself in a similar boat. Trevor May had Tommy John surgery last March and spent the 2017 season rehabbing. That process continues. We can’t with any certainty know when he will return to the Twins. However, as with Hughes, we can certainly speculate what his role might be for the Twins in 2018 and beyond. Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily Yesterday, Nick wrote about a forgotten player who hopes to be a factor in the Twins pitching staff in 2018, Phil Hughes. Another pitcher finds himself in a similar boat. Trevor May had Tommy John surgery last March and spent the 2017 season rehabbing. That process continues. We can’t with any certainty know when he will return to the Twins. However, as with Hughes, we can certainly speculate what his role might be for the Twins in 2018 and beyond. So when might Trevor May be back? Also, what is the best role for him? Of course, there’s no way to know either of those answers, but we can at least start thinking about them. When might May return? It’s obviously difficult to know the answer to that question. One tremendous source for fans regarding Tommy John surgery is Jon Roegele’s excellent Tommy John surgery list. It provides a lot of information on those who have had the surgery, which organization they were with, when the surgery was, when they returned, and which doctor performed the surgery. It's a very valuable tool for fans. The generic timeline for recovery of pitchers is 12-14 months, but the range really is more like 11-24 months. And even that is very dependent upon when the surgery happens. I mean, if a guy has the surgery in August, they’re going to miss the entire next season, but because there are two offseasons involved, it’s likely he won’t pitch in a game for 20-22 months. Lewis Thorpe and Fernando Romero both needed two years to return, but both of them had a setback in their recovery. Romero needed knee surgery. Thorpe lost time due to mono. Brusdar Graterol missed nearly two years as well, but he had surgery in August 2015, missed all of 2016, and didn’t return until the GCL season started in June of 2017. On the other side of things, Kyle Gibson returned to the mound just under 12 months from his surgery date. Joe Nathan returned just over a year after his 2010 Tommy John surgery. Alex Wimmers returned in 11 months. May’s most recent Twitter update on his arm came about three weeks ago. On November 13, he tweeted, “75 throws at 105 today. That’s a lot. And I’m fired up.” https://twitter.com/trevmay65/status/930067155680415746 That doesn’t tell us when he’ll be back and able to pitch, but it tells us that things are progressing very nicely for the right-hander. It’s also possible, depending upon where May is in his rehab during spring training, that he could spend a month or two in the minor leagues building up arm strength in a controlled environment before bringing him back to the big leagues. That would not be a terrible idea, and depending on the role he’s brought back for, it might make the most sense. What Is The Best Role for May? Here is another question that we just don’t have any great answer for. There are so many variables that go into that, including things that are completely out of his control, like the Twins front office acquiring starters or relievers this offseason. A quick look back in time tells us that there are three (sort of) possibilities for guys returning from Tommy John. 1 - Starters Come Back As Starters 2 - Relievers Come Back As Relievers The first two sound really simple, right. I mean, if a guy was a starter before he had Tommy John surgery, he tends most often to come back as a starting pitcher. There are several examples of starters who came back as strong as they were before the surgery, sometimes even better. Maybe the best example of that is Tommy John himself. He notched 164 wins in the big leagues after having the surgery that is named after him. Tim Hudson, Chris Carpenter, Jordan Zimmerman. The list goes on and on of starting pitchers who have come back to all-star caliber after surgery. Kerry Wood came back as a quality starter after his surgery following his Rookie of the Year season. Likewise, relievers come back as relievers. Billy Wagner was back as the Astros closer in under a year and continued to dominate. Joe Nathan returned to dominance following his first Tommy John surgery. Pat Neshek took a little time to get back to his pre-surgery self, but he has come back to all-star levels and multi-year extensions. 3 - The John Smoltz Option (Starter Becomes Reliever) The best example of a player shifting roles after Tommy John is Hall of Famer John Smoltz. He was a tremendous starting pitcher for many years before his surgery. When he came back from his surgery, he made a handful of starts before taking over the Atlanta closer role. He went on to save 154 games over the next three-plus seasons. He became the best closer in the game for a short period. But then he went back to starting, in his fifth season after surgery. He made 100 starts over the next three years and was twice an All-Star. Kerry Wood had shoulder surgery later in his career, and at that point, he came back as a closer and was good for a couple of years. Smoltz has talked in the past about the decision to move into that closer role. Essentially, he wasn’t able to eat as many inningsas before his return, and more important, the Braves were a contending team in need of a reliable closer. Smoltz was able to not only fill that role, but dominate in it. But he did want to get back into a starting role. He talked about how he was able to develop a consistent routine, know his schedule for running, throwing, side sessions, etc. He didn’t have to worry about throwing every day. He was able to adequately rest. What About May? Which category does May fit into? That’s the tough part that we just don’t know. Starters come back as starters. Relievers come back as relievers. Well, is May a starter or a reliever? I mean, he came up as a starter, but he became a threat in the bullpen for a couple of years. He missed time in 2016 with a back injury that cost him a lot of time in the season's second half. There was thought that he could help mitigate that stress by starting. That’s the role he went into spring training 2017 fighting for. He was being given every opportunity to be a starter. Until that fateful start against Team USA in a WBC exhibition game in Ft. Myers. That night, he felt discomfort in his elbow. A month later, he had the surgery. For me, I would probably bring him back as a starter. At least that’s how I would handle his return. To me, that would be much easier on his arm and body, and it might be helpful mentally as he works through the ups and downs of a return. Then again, spring training itself is a very regimented program, especially for pitchers. They know when they’ll pitch (starters and relievers). They plan several days ahead for who will pitch and how many pitches. In other words, like all injuries or player development or anything, it has to be individualized. It’s likely that Trevor May, Paul Molitor, Thad Levine and Derek Falvey will have several conversations before spring training, and then throughout spring training. So there are two questions for the Twins Daily readers to consider: What do you think the Twins and May should decide? What do you think that the Twins and May will decide? View full article