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awstafki

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  1. awstafki
    Originally posted at http://minnesotasportshub.wordpress.com/
     
    It’s safe to say that the Minnesota Twins faithful have grown accustomed to the frustration that has surrounded the franchise since opening day of the 2011 season. Whether it was Joe Mauer’s bilateral leg weakness, Justin Morneau’s never ending concussion symptoms or the entire starting rotations lackluster beginning to the 2012 season, there has always been something for the fan base to shake their heads at.
     
    As of this moment there is an abundance of frustration inducing examples littered across the entire organization. Brian Dozier’s defensive regression and Nick Blackburn’s lack of a sinker are just two of the most recent examples that come to mind. Although they are maddening in their own unique way they pale in comparison to a Twin’s prospect that has consistently lulled everyone into a false sense of hopefulness only to yank us back into hair pulling madness in the matter of five major league innings.
    Of course I am talking about the one, the only, Liam Hendriks.
     
    Few pitchers have dominated AAA ball this season quite like Liam Hendriks. As of July 11th his ERA sat at an impressive 1.69 while he held opposing hitter’s to a mere .180 average. As if his statistics weren’t impressive enough he also had the look of a major league pitcher. There was an aura of confidence that surrounded him anytime he stepped onto the mound for the Red Wings. A fan from another organization would take one look at him and wonder why on earth he was still pitching in AAA when the Twins are desperate for arms. Well, all it would take is a quick glance at Hendriks 2012 major league stats to kill that curiosity.
     
    Here are just a few telling statistics from Hendriks eight games with the
    Minnesota Twins in 2012:
     
    7.04 ERA
    .339 Opponents BA
    1.75 WHIP
    2.35 HR/9
    60.0 LOB %
     
    Of course the stats only tell a fraction of the story. In order to truly grasp the ineffectiveness of Hendriks you would need to go back and watch one of his eight starts. The impeccable control that he demonstrated in Rochester was nowhere to be seen. His composure was completely shot. He looked over matched, out of his league. He looked like a AAA pitcher.
    In a way his struggles are understandable. At 23 years old the Aussie is still learning and developing his game. Just as recently as 2011 he was still pitching in AA. But despite his age and lack of experience there is still a massive amount of frustration surrounding his 2012 season.
     
    A lot of the frustration surrounding Hendriks isn’t necessarily due to his ineffectiveness at the major league level; it’s the fact that he has the ability to succeed; he just fails to harness that ability. It would be forgivable if Hendriks just lacked the necessary skill set to be an effective major league pitcher. Of course it would sting considering the amount of resources that are used on any given prospect, but it’s forgivable. In Hendriks case we have witnessed his particular skill set and it is impressive. We know what he is capable of which is why it’s so maddening to see him struggle mightily against big league hitters.
     
    It’s not that the Twins fan base has unrealistic expectations for the 23 year old Aussie. There isn’t a single person who expects him to become the ace of the staff or even a #2 starter. The only thing that we ask is that he is effective. There aren’t any numbers attached to that expectation. We don’t expect a certain amount of wins or an ERA below 3. The only thing that is being asked is that Hendriks gives the Twins a chance to win.
     
    Hopefully the next time Hendriks gets the call he can alleviate the frustration rather than compound it. The Twins fans have enough things to be frustrated with these days.
  3. awstafki
    2012 has been a rough year for the Minnesota Twins starting rotation. Ineffectiveness and injuries have led to the worst ERA in the American League and with Nick Blackburn pitching every five games that’s likely not going to change.
     
    With the trade deadline nearing and the likelihood that the Twins will swap major leaguers for prospects, it’s time to take a look at what the Twins have in their farm system.
     
    Most of these pitchers will not be ready for 2012 or even 2013 but all have ceilings that place them into the starting rotation in the future. I did not include any draft picks from the 2012 class and anyone who has seen Major League action already for the sake of shining the light on a few new prospects.
     
    B.J. Hermsen
    Age: 23
    Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats (AA)
    Throws: Right
    Drafted: 2008, 6th Round (186th pick)
     
    Hermsen fits the typical (or at least what used to be typical) mold of a Twins pitching prospect. He lacks high end velocity (tops out around 87-89 mph) but his ability to throw strikes and hit his spots consistently masks that lack of power.
     
    He has been one of the more pleasant surprises in the minor league system in 2012, making the jump from Fort Myers (+A) to New Britain without missing a beat. His ERA sits at an impressive 2.65 through ten starts but what is more remarkable is that his K/BB ratio sits at 4.71. His success solely relies on his command and so far his command has been spectacular in 2012.
     
    As of right now he projects to be a #4 or 5 starter or a long reliever in the majors. He has a nice repertoire of pitches (two and four-seam fastball, changeup, curve and a newly added cutter) that could elevate his stock when it comes to breaking into the Twins rotation and his ability to command all of those pitches will also help as well. The big test for Hermsen will come when he gets promoted to the Red Wings and is tested against better bats than what he is currently seeing.
     
    Madison Boer
     
    Age: 22
    Current Team: Fort Myers Miracle (+A)
    Throws: Right
    Drafted: 2011, 2nd Round (87th pick)
     
    Boer was drafted out of the University of Oregon and was projected to be fast tracked towards the major league after cruising through Elizabethton and Beloit. Things haven’t been as easy in Fort Myers where Boer has struggled mightily.
     
    Although his 8.41 ERA is shocking it doesn’t even compare to his atrocious walk rate of 4.43 per 9 innings. Batters are hitting a staggering .359 off of him so far and even his strikeout rate has dipped to 4.65 per 9 innings.
     
    Even with his poor 2012 season he has the potential to be a solid starter or a very effective relief pitcher. His fastball sits around 90-93 mph and has even touched 96 which shows that he has the ability to elevate his velocity even more if given the opportunity. Along with his slider he throws a plus slider that he uses as his out pitch and can throw a splitter as well.
     
    It’s still unknown whether Boer can become a starter or fall into the relief role but no matter what he needs to learn how to control his pitches before he is ready to continue his trek towards the major leagues.
     
    Hudson Boyd
     
    Age: 19
    Current Team: Elizabethton Twins (Rookie)
    Throws: Right
    Drafted: 2011, 1st round (55th pick)
     
    When the Twins selected Boyd they were going against everything that they believed at the time. Instead of being a commanding college pitcher as was the usual selection, he was a power pitching high school with plenty of upside.
     
    His fastball has reached 97 mph but usually sits around 92-94 and is accompanied by a swooping curveball that scouts rate as a plus pitch. His repertoire is small (fastball, curve and changeup) but given his age there is plenty of chance for expansion in the near future.
     
    2012 is his first professional season after missing out on the 2011 so as of right now there isn’t much to grade Boyd on rather than what his raw skills project him to be. Those skills project him to be an innings eater who could become a power pitcher if given the chance to do so. If there was a dark horse for the ace of the future this would be the guy to bet on.
     
    Adrian Salcedo
     
    Age: 21
    Current Team: Fort Myers Miracle (+A)
    Throws: R
    Drafted: NA (signed Nov. 27, 2007)
     
    Salcedo, like Hermsen, is a control style pitcher that the Twins coveted once upon a time. Every pitch that he throws, from his fastball to his breaking ball to his changeup, is thrown for strikes. His strikeout rate will never impress because of this but his ability to limit walks negates that aspect of his pitching.
     
    So far his 2012 campaign has been very shaky. The control that I spoke of has been absent and his effectiveness has taken a hit because of it. His walk rate is an astounding 6.04 per nine innings which has bloated his ERA to 5.64 through 7 starts.
     
    How far Salcedo progresses through the organization will be directly affected by whether his command returns to normal. If it does return then he should go back to his old self that was considered one of the top pitching prospects in the entire organization.
     
    Kyle Gibson
     
    Age: 24
    Current Team: Rochester Red Wings (AAA)
    Throws: R
    Drafted: 2009, 1st round (22nd pick)
     
    Gibson was well on his way to the Twins starting rotation before he was sidelined with the dreaded UCL tear in 2011. Right now he is currently rehabbing and should be ready to go for the start of the 2013 season.
     
    The biggest strength in Gibson’s game is his ability to induce groundballs. He keeps his pitches down in the strike zone and has excellent control of his fastball that sits in the 87-93 mph range. Both his slider and changeup are considered to be above average pitches which give him a very nice arsenal to bring to the mound.
     
    Whether he is able to return to his original form after Tommy John surgery is a big question but with advancements in the surgery it’s more than likely he will be back to normal very soon after his return. If that’s the case Gibson can be a very solid #2 starter for the Twins in the upcoming seasons.
  4. awstafki
    [Originally posted at http://minnesotasportshub.wordpress.com/2012/06/18/the-road-ahead-for-the-2012-minnesota-twins/]
     
    The trading deadline is on the horizon, the time to buy or sell is near. Rumors are emerging from the mystical land of unnamed sources, mostly revolving around Justin Morneau and the Toronto Blue Jays, and they will only grow louder as the days pass by. It’s rather clear that the Twins will be sellers come July 31st but instead of focusing on the soon to be AAA Twins, lets take a detour and talk about the unlikely possibility that the Twins turn around their 2012 season.
    Sure the Twins currently sit at 26-39 and are the worst team in the American League. Yes they do have the worst ERA in the AL and their rotation is a never ending carousel of ineffectiveness. I understand that they have been on a 1-4 skid against two of the weaker NL teams. But why can’t they turn it around? It’ll take a small miracle but maybe all we need is a little optimism to push us in the right direction.



    As of June 18th the Twins have 97 games remaining in their 2012 campaign. Of those 97 games, 54 of them will be played against AL Central opponents, allowing the Twins to make up ground rather quickly.
    Working in their favor is the fact that no single team has run away with the division as of yet. 8.5 games is all that separates the division leader White Sox and the AL worst Twins which means that all it takes is a two week long hot streak and they are back in the thick of things.
    The Twins have just recently proven that they have the capability to put together a solid stretch of games. Before their current 1-4 game skid they had won 10 of their previous 13 games including four out of six against division opponents (Indians and Royals). It’s that kind of stretch that the Twins will need to replicate in order to close the gap between themselves and the rest of the AL Central.
    The good news is that the Central will likely be wide open throughout the entire season. The Tigers, who were crowned AL Central champs before a game was even played, have sputtered behind inconsistent pitching and a lack of depth in their lineup. The Indians lack the necessary pitching to break away from the rest of pack and their lineup has yet to mature into the force that they were projected to be. The White Sox have a stellar 1-2 punch with Jake Peavy and Chris Sale in their rotation but outside of Dunn, Konerko and Rios they lack any quality bats (Pierzynski and De Aza will come back down to earth at some point). The Royals, well, they’re the Royals.
    With a division that is so wildly inconsistent it’s easy to see how the Twins, even with their abundance of flaws, have a fighting chance. The fight won’t come without its challenges though. They’ll be on the road for 51 of their 97 games and 28 of those 51 games will be against teams with records of over .500. In fact, 55 of their 97 remaining games will come against opponents with winning records.
    Not only will they be facing successful teams, they’ll be facing teams that have given them fits in the past few years, specifically teams from the AL East. 17 games will come against the Orioles, Red Sox, Rays, Yankees and Blue Jays who the Twins have combined to win just 5 of 12 from so far this season.
    Simply put, the Twins have a tough road ahead of them, but it’s not impossible by any means. Just look at the 2011 collapse of the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves. No one would have predicted that to happen, especially not twice in one September. Sure it’s incredibly unlikely that the Twins come out as the 2012 AL Central champs, but crazier things have happened before.
  5. awstafki
    [Originally posted at http://minnesotasportshub.wordpress.com/2012/06/15/2010-twins-if-only-morneau-were-healthy/]
     
    The 2010 Minnesota Twins season will always be remembered for what it could have been rather than what it was. Dreams of grandeur floated around Target Field as the Twins ended the regular season with a 94-68 record and home field advantage against the New York Yankees in the ALDS.
     
    Even the most pessimistic of fans, myself included, began to wonder if this could be the year the Twins finally exercise their Yankee curse. That wonderment only increased as the Twins held a 3-0 lead going into sixth inning of game 1, but then, the inevitable occurred.
     
    Four hits and a walk led to four runs in the sixth, giving the Yankees the lead. The Twins managed to tie the game in the bottom half of the inning but J.J. Hardy’s strikeout left the bases loaded and the memories of past playoff collapses crept into everyone’s mind. Those memories quickly became reality when Mark Teixerra took a 3-2 Jesse Crain fastball deep to right. All the confidence evaporated from the lineup with a single pitch and it was never recovered. The Yankees swept the series and the Twins have never been the same since.
     
    It’s been two years since the 2010 season and those memories are still fresh in our collective minds. The what if’s are as persistent as ever but there is one ‘what if’ that rings louder than any other. What if Justin Morneau had remained healthy for the entire season?
     
    For the first 81 games of the season Justin Morneau was not merely good, he was incredible. Here is a list of stats that he accrued for the first half of the season:
     
    .345 avg.
    .437 OBP
    .618 SLG
    18 HR’s
    56 RBI’s
    .274 ISO
    1.055 OPS
    .385 BABIP
     
    The statistics only tell a fraction of the story though. Standing alone they are impressive but to truly comprehend how dominant Justin Morneau was during the 2010 season you had to watch him at the plate. You always hear how confidence can change a player but I never understood it until Morneau stepped into the batter’s box that year. It’s not that he lacked confidence in previous seasons, he did win the AL MVP in 2006 after all, the confidence level had just reached a new high.That confidence led to an increased plate discipline that saw his walk rate (14.4 %) hit a career high. There was something special brewing in the 2010 season until July 7th rolled around and changed the progression of Morneau’s career.
     
    An errant knee to the head by Toronto Blue Jays second baseman John McDonald landed Morneau on the DL with a concussion. The duration of the DL stint wasn’t initially known but as time passed it was clear that concussions symptoms were lingering longer than expected. As the Twins neared the postseason there was speculation that Morneau would return to the lineup but on October 4th he was officially shut down for the season.
     
    The odds that Morneau would have continued his torrid pace throughout the 2010 season were not high but it was undeniable that he would have continued to produce at a high clip. Michael Cuddyer filled in very well at 1B but there was no way to replace Morneau’s production and that was evident in the ALDS. Morneau had built up the reputation as a Yankee killer in previous seasons even as his team struggled against them. Another bat may have helped the Twins overcome Teixeira’s blast in Game 1 and that could have turned the tide of the series.
     
    Of course there is no way to tell if Morneau would have pushed the Twins past the Yankees in the ALDS. There is no way to tell if Morneau would have ended up producing one of the great seasons in Twins history on his way to his 2nd AL MVP. All we can do is wonder, what if...
  6. awstafki
    [Originally posted at: http://minnesotasportshub.wordpress.com/]
     
    Ever since the Twins traded away Johan Santana before the 2008 season the organization has been searching for the all important ace of their pitching staff. For four seasons they have rummaged through their minor league system in order to pinpoint who this mystery ace would be and every name that emerged was struck down by injury or lack of production. Then suddenly, just as the pitching staff had hit rock bottom with a league worst ERA of 6.59 a new hope emerged.
     
    In his first start for the 2012 Twins he pitched seven scoreless innings while giving up four hits and one walk. He commanded the mound like he had been there before, mostly because he had.
     
    Just a season ago he was called up from AAA Rochester and inserted into the rotation in late July and was battered to the tune of a 5.08 ERA in seven games. There were questions as to whether this man would still be with the organization in 2012 let alone be its most successful pitcher. Just who is this possible ace you ask? Well it’s Scott Diamond of course.
     
    Scott Diamond doesn’t fit the mold of a prototypical ace that we have grown accustomed to seeing. His K/9 rate is a very modest 5.64 and opponents are hitting .275 off of him which, compared to a typical ace such as David Price whose K/9 rate is 8.01 and opponent’s batting average is .235, are on the low end of the spectrum. It’s not that Diamond doesn’t possess velocity, he consistently hits the low nineties with his fastball, he just doesn’t have the zip to overpower hitters nor does he have the elite out pitch that a lot of the current aces have.
     
    The good news is that Diamond doesn’t have to fit into that mold in order to be an ace. Pitchers such as Greg Maddux, Tim Hudson and most recently R.A. Dickey, have proven that an ace doesn’t necessarily have to possess an abundance of velocity in order to be effective. What they do need to do is become a master of their craft.
     
    For Greg Maddux that meant out-thinking the hitter, for Tim Hudson that meant commanding his sinker and for R.A. Dickey it’s having movement on his knuckleball. All of them were extremely effective and all of them lacked velocity. They succeeded because they knew what worked for them and stuck to it.
     
    In order for Diamond to become a top of the line starter he needs to understand what his craft exactly is. By looking at the small sample size that Diamond has accrued this season we can make an educated guess as to what that craft may be. Here are a few telling statistics:
     
    - He is allowing .81 walks per nine innings which would lead the majors if he had enough innings to be eligible.
    - 82.6% of the runners that reach base never touch home which would rank him in the top five of the MLB.
    - His strikeout to walk ratio is 7 which would also lead the MLB if eligible.
    - 61.1% of the balls put in play are groundballs, putting him just behind Derek Lowe and Trevor Hill at the top of the league leaders.
     
    After taking a look at those numbers there are three things that we can conclude; he doesn’t hurt himself with walks, he strands runners and when the ball is hit it’s usually on the ground. All of these things bode very well for Scott Diamond and the Twins organization because they aren’t mirage statistics, meaning they have substance to them. When you combine all three aspects they can combine to make an attainable craft for Diamond which is that of a control pitcher.
     
    The big key as to whether Diamond continues his progression towards being the Twins # 1 pitcher is consistency. So far in this young season he has yet to be lit up by opposing hitters which shows that he doesn’t get rattled very easily. It’s that mental toughness that will allow him to command his pitches and keep his consistency throughout tough stretches that are inevitable. It’s also that mental toughness that will keep his control intact which will then allow him keep his pitches down where they need to be.
     
    Of course this is just best case scenario. To expect Diamond to become an ace after never showing signs of being a dominant starter in his career is a lot to ask, but for right now he has the best chance of doing so. He might not be the ace that we fans have fantasized about, but he just might be the ace that the Twins desperately need.
  7. awstafki
    With the Twins recent resurgence there is a renewed hope throughout Twins Territory that the 2012 season is not completely hopeless. Winning ten out of their last thirteen games and playing in a weak Central division definitely helps to build that hope but there is a possibility that we are just being teased into believing in the 2012 lineup. After all eight of those wins have come against teams below .500.
     
    If that possibility becomes reality it’s more than likely that come trade deadline you will be seeing a lot of unfamiliar faces in the starting lineup this year and the years ahead. With an eye to the future lets’ take a look at the top prospects, position by position, in the organization and see just what the Twins have to look forward to in the near future.
     
    Catcher – Chris Herrmann
     
    Current Age: 24
    Drafted: 2009, 6th round (192nd pick)
    Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats (AA)
     
    Herrmann had a breakout season in 2011 with high class A Fort Myers Miracle. He hit .310/.404/.425 and was quickly promoted to AA New Britain where his offense leveled off. He’ll never be a power hitter and he needs to work on his discipline at the plate (44 strikeouts in 204 AB’s) but he has shown he can hit for average and his defense is a plus despite playing OF most of his minor league career.
     
    First Base – Chris Parmelee
     
    Current Age: 24
    Drafted: 2006, 1st round (20th pick)
    Current Team: Minnesota Twins (MLB)
     
    The Twins faithful witnessed just how good Parmelee can be when he made his debut for the team late in the 2011 season. He continued to impress in Spring Training and was on the Opening Day roster but was demoted to AAA Red Wings after struggling to find his swing. His range in the field is limited but his ability to hit for power and average is a huge plus and should give the Twins a solid heart of the order hitter when Morneau leaves.
     
    Second Base – Eddie Rosario
     
    Current Age: 20
    Drafted: 2010, 4th round (135th pick)
    Current Team: Beloit Snappers (A)
     
    Rosario is probably the best prospect in the Twins organization that you haven’t heard of. That’s going to change very soon if he can continue the torrid place that he has been on since 2011. He lit up the rookie-level Appalachian League in 2011, hitting .337 with 21 homeruns and 60 RBI’s in just 67 games. In 2012 he has moved up to A Beloit but his numbers have remained impressive nonetheless. He is relatively new to 2B (originally played OF) but his athleticism has made the transition very smooth. He is still a few years away from being major league ready but once he gets there he could be a star for an organization that has struggled to produce solid middle infielders.
     
    Shortstop – Brian Dozier
     
    Current Age: 25
    Drafted: 2009, 8th round (252nd pick)
    Current Team: Minnesota Twins
     
    Dozier emerged as a top prospect after having a solid year for AA New Britain in 2011. He spent just 28 games in AAA this season before being promoted to the Twins and secured his spot as the everyday shortstop quickly thereafter. Dozier is an ideal top of the order hitter (great composure at the plate and has the speed to cause trouble on the base paths) but will never have much power. There is a possibility that Dozier moves to his more natural spot at 2B but with Rosario’s rise and a lack of quality prospects at SS he’ll likely stay there.
     
    Third Base – Miguel Sano
     
    Current Age: 19
    Drafted: NA (signed on October 9th, 2009 as a FA)
    Current Team: Beloit Snappers (A)
     
    Sano is easily the top prospect in the Twins organization and one of the most promising prospects throughout the entire minor leagues. He showed everyone that hype is warranted in 2011 and has only added to hype in 2012, hitting 14 homers and 45 RBI’s in just 60 games. He will always have a high K rate being a power hitter and his average will suffer because of it but his raw power will make up for that. There is a question as to whether he will outgrow 3B and have to move across to 1B or OF which would hurt his positional upside but for now he is staying at 3B. Sano is simply a superstar in the making and a bright spot for the entire organization.
     
    Right Field – Ben Revere
     
    Current Age: 24
    Drafted: 2007. 1st round (28th pick)
    Current Team: Minnesota Twins (MLB)
     
    There is an argument that Oswaldo Arcia or Joe Benson could be in this spot but the Twins cannot pass up on the prototypical leadoff hitter Revere. He has been bounced around from AAA to major leagues for the past two seasons but after his latest promotion he has seemed to cement himself into the big league lineup. His speed is unbelievable but he needs to draw more walks in order to elevate his impact on the game. He is still questionable when it comes to playing the OF, often taking odd routes, but that speed is the great equalizer for Revere.
     
    Center Field – Byron Buxton
     
    Current Age: 18
    Drafted: 2012, 1st round (2nd pick)
    Current Team: NA
     
    The newest Twin may just have the highest ceiling of any prospect in the organization. Buxton was considered by many to be the top prospect in the 2012 class and it’s easy to see why. His speed is the most evident tool but he also has an incredibly smooth swing and is highly athletic. He has yet to face real quality pitchers, being a high school player and all, but there is so much natural baseball instincts in the kid that there is little question as to whether he can make the adjustment. It’ll be a few years until he works his way up through the system but it will be worth the wait.
     
    Left Field – Aaron Hicks
    Current Age: 22
    Drafted: 2008, 1st round (14th pick)
    Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats (AA)
     
    Before Sano entered the organization Hicks was the undisputed top prospect in the organization but after four years of unspectacular play he may be the odd one out when it comes to the Twins future. He is a five-tool prospect that has an incredible ceiling but he has yet to put those tools to use in the minors, compiling a .264/.373/.405 batting line. He is still young there is room for growth but he needs to accelerate his maturation if he wants to progress through the system.
     
    Of course these are all just projections and chances are the Twins will acquire more prospects in the future which will change this outlook. Just like in every organization some of the top prospects will fizzle out before even sniffing the majors but these are the prospects that are most likely to make their way into a Twins uniform and they don’t look too bad.
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