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Allen Post

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Blog Entries posted by Allen Post

  1. Allen Post
    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have landed two more big free agency punches. The intrepid front office duo ended their extended standoff with Nelson Cruz Tuesday night, signing the beloved DH a one-year $13 million deal. Then, they bolstered the bullpen Wednesday afternoon by adding Alex Colomé to an affordable one-year contract with a mutual option for a second season.
     
    In Cruz, we know what we’re getting – or at least we hope we do. The 40-year-old slugger has hit for power as well as anybody in the game in his two seasons in a Twins jersey, but he’s just that – a 40-year-old slugger. Father Time – with a 43-year-old Tom Brady in another Superbowl – has been taking a beating recently, but he’s still undefeated. And though Cruz has been remarkably resistant to decline, he will give way to the inevitability of age soon. The Twins just hope it’s not this year. If Cruz is the same guy he has been, then Nelly will be the lead slugger in a lineup full of them and his $13 million price tag will be money well spent.
     
    Colomé will be pretty familiar with the Twins as well. After all, he’s limited Twins hitters to a .214 average in 22 appearances against the club. Colomé primarily uses a four-seam and cutter to get his outs and, though he has a power arm, he isn’t the strikeout guy some of the rest of the Twins’ relievers are. Instead, he relies on the cutter to create ground balls and soft contact. Colomé’s career ERA is under three and, in his shortened 2020 season, it was 0.81 in 21 appearances. There’s no reason to believe he can’t be that dominant again with the Twins, especially because Minnesota’s revamped infield defense ought to serve a contact pitcher like Colomé very well.
     


    Alex Colomé will be a valuable piece in the Twins' bullpen 
    It seems then that, at long last, the Twins have crossed off all the items on their offseason shopping list. After these two moves, the Twins have filled holes in the rotation and the bullpen, and at shortstop and DH. And, though the wait for substantial free agent activity was at times excruciating, the team is better today that it was at the start of the offseason. With one or two more signings for a cheap arm or utility depth, the Twins will be clear AL Central favorites again, if they aren’t already.
     
    Today, at the end of this free agency rush, the worries we as Twins fans had during the dry spell seem silly, and really, they always were. Falvey and Levine haven’t failed us yet, but, like someone fresh out of a toxic relationship, we were expecting to get hurt, even though the person we’re with now has done nothing wrong. Terry Ryan scarred us by sticking to old school baseball well into the 21st century and by paying Ervin Santana, but “Falvine” aren’t like that. They are calculated and competent, patient but opportunistic. They are the perfect duo to have making personnel decisions in the modern-day MLB. Yeah, it took a while, but they were always in control. The Cruz deal moved at a snail’s pace because that’s what was needed to get him on a team-friendly deal. They moved on Simmons almost immediately after Semien signed elsewhere. These guys don’t miss the boat. They don’t hurt the team like Terry Ryan did. They know what they’re doing.
     


    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have the Twins in a great spot again 
    It’ll take time before we get used to the fact that the Twins are a competent, forward-thinking MLB organization. Even now, I’m worried – against my better judgement – that, with a bunch of one-year deals, we’ll have to go through all of this again next offseason. Though that’s probably the case, if getting a better baseball team in exchange for a few months of waiting is all we have to “go through,” then that’s fine by me. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine haven’t “lost” an offseason yet; they just take a while to win them. So, next year, when we do this again, remember who’s in charge and be patient for a few weeks. You’ll probably like where the team ends up.
     
     
    Update: Minutes after this went up, the Twins dealt for a cheap arm like I mentioned above in Shaun Anderson from the Giants.
  2. Allen Post
    Thad Levine and Derek Falvey finally popped the champagne to start the Twins free agency party by signing shortstop Andrelton Simmons to a one-year $10.5 million deal Wednesday evening. It was the type of deal myself and many others were waiting for. Simmons is a defensive genius and a solid hitter to boot, so, as long as he stays healthy, he’ll be a huge upgrade as the Twins’ everyday shortstop.
     
    Two weeks ago, I wrote an article that ranked a few of the Twins’ offseason targets on the “Fun Meter” and I didn’t talk about Simmons, but, if I had, he would’ve fared rather well. “Simba” is a defensive highlight machine. He’s got quick feet and a long, lanky frame that give him nearly boundless range. And, his immensely skilled hands and cannon for an arm mean that no bad hop is really all that bad and no throw is too hard to make. Even beyond the physical stuff, though, Simmons’ instincts and hustle allow him to confuse and confound baserunners and make plays that no other shortstop even considers. Just watch.
     

     
    As you can probably tell, I’m fairly excited about what Andrelton Simmons in a Twins jersey will look like, but this move wasn’t just made to increase the Twins’ representation on SportsCenter’s Top 10; it makes baseball and money sense, too. Simmons’ one-year $10.5 million deal is perfect for this mid-pandemic free agency period. In a time when money is a bit of a concern across professional sports, the Twins got a top-quality shortstop without making any long-term commitment. If Simmons is the player we all hope and expect him to be, the front office can work on bringing him back for 2022, but if he’s not, they can move on and he’s off the books after only a year. There’s no long-term money risk. The Twins have had success with this low-risk approach before, with Nelson Cruz being a guy that worked out and Logan Morrison being a guy they were glad to move on from.
     
    The Simmons move is interesting for another reason, though – Simmons is a very different player than the free agents this front office regime has signed so far. In their time leading the club, Levine and Falvey’s big non-pitcher signings have been Morrison, Cruz, and, of course, Josh Donaldson. Those guys – all big, burly sluggers – show the commitment this front office duo has to playing modern-day baseball, where launch angle, exit velocity, and ultimately homerun hitting is put at a premium. That effort has paid off, as the Twins are now a power-hitting team, and a record-breaking one at that. But Simmons is a different type of player with a completely different skill set. Those guys bring brawn and brute force. Simmons brings dynamism and nuance. Those guys create runs (well Morrison didn’t), Simmons saves them. Players like Simmons still have a place in modern baseball – and there are stats to prove it – but this signing marks a break in the trend from the Twins’ front-office shot callers.
     


    The Twins shifted their focus from power hitting to defense by signing Simmons 
    And that, in itself, is kind of fun. Not too long ago, the Twins were anything but a power team and, with very few long balls to get excited about, Twins fans learned to appreciate the little things. Defense, hustle, and contact hitting were the Twins’ bread and butter and guys like Jason Bartlett, Alexi Casilla, and even Darin Mastroianni were some of the most likable players on their teams (What’s that? I was the only guy who liked Mastroianni? Oh, okay.). By no means do I want to go back to those days, but to have Simmons, a guy who does all the “little piranha” things, but at a superstar level, is going to be great to watch.
     
    Homerun hitters are good fun, but baseball needs action in the field and on the basepaths. Those Twins teams of yesteryear, even when they weren’t good, always had that. Now, Simmons, who can make a special play out of nothing, is bringing it back to Minnesota.
  3. Allen Post
    Think back to October 2019 – the Twins had just gotten pantsed in the playoffs. Again. A really fun season had ended in disappointment. Again. But there was still ample reason for hope. One such reason for optimism was the emergence of Luis Arraez, a rookie contact-hitting savant. Now, one (odd) season later, and we’re in about the same place. The Twins are fresh off another fun season that ended in postseason embarrassment, but this year, we’re much less excited about the 23-year-old second baseman. And for what? All Arraez did in 2020 was fight through injury to hit for a .321 batting average (best on the team) and a .364 on-base percentage (second best) while playing a decent second base. So why are some Twins fans throwing his name into every possible trade deal or into a platoon with whoever ends up as Minnesota’s utility man? Hasn’t Arraez earned himself a spot in the Twins future?
     
    2020 Season
    Okay, obviously saying that Arraez “fought through injury” to bat .321 is a fairly rose-tinted way of looking at what Luis brought to the Twins last year. To put it a different way, “Arraez was an injury liability and, when he was in the lineup, he regressed in all major stat categories and offered very little in the way of power.” The truth about Arraez is somewhere in between these two takes, but I’ve heard a lot more extreme pessimism than optimism. Yes, he regressed last year and no, he doesn’t help the team when he’s injured, but we’ve found ways to excuse nearly every other Twin for those same exact problems without casting them off as trade bait (I’m looking at you, Garver and Buxton). Also, Arraez’s “regression” brought him down to a .321 average that would’ve been good for third-best in the American League if he had enough at-bats to qualify. As far as I’m concerned, that’s still a pretty good season.
     


    Arraez's 2020 campaign was disappointing, but there's reason for hope going forward 
    Advanced Stats
    I understand that, nowadays, you often have to do more than just hit at a high average to be a solid MLB player, but worry not, because Arraez actually improved slightly in a number of more telling advanced statistics last season. His 2020 campaign saw him improve in average exit velocity, sweet spot percentage and hard hit percentage, per Baseball Savant. None of these improvements was particularly significant and he’s by no means excelling in any of these categories, but it’s clear by looking at the advanced metrics that Arraez is not getting worse at the plate. In fact, it seems that his 2020 season should have been even better than his breakout rookie year.
     
    So why did it feel disappointing? Because we were hoping for that second-year leap and we got a regression to the mean instead. Arraez’s improvement in advanced hitting metrics and regression in average and OBP show us that his rookie year was a statistical outlier more than it was a stepping stone to even greater success in the future. Still, if .321 is the mean he regressed towards, Twins fans ought to be excited, especially considering that he was injured and is still only 23. We’ve written off much worse pandemic performances from healthier and more experienced guys, so let’s afford Arraez some of that forgiveness.
     
    2021 Projections
    Unfortunately, ZiPS (and every other projection service) doesn’t seem to be helping me make my case. They predict a slash line of .313/.371/.406 for his third year in the bigs. On the surface, this looks worse than it is because Arraez’s average is projected to take another hit, but ZiPS actually projects that .313 mark to lead the majors. They have his on-base and slugging numbers improving, too, so, really, they’re not down on Arraez at all. Even if Arraez does level out as a .313 hitter – and I think he’ll be better than that long-term – adding some power and taking more walks would be a massive improvement for his career and for the Twins lineup. And I believe he can make those improvements because, again, he’s only 23.
     


    ZiPS projects a .313/.371/.406 slash line for Arraez in 2021 
    So, where does that leave us? I saw the regression from his rookie year (we all did) and no, his 2020 year wasn’t what we hoped for, but Arraez is still a great asset for the Twins moving forward. I believe in his contact hitting that has been the best on the team and I believe in the advanced metrics that show his improvements in other areas. Most of all, though, I believe in the player. Arraez has hit .300 at every level of professional baseball, and is the same age or younger than some of the Twins’ top minor-league prospects. He’s already a great hitter and he has a lot of opportunity for growth ahead of him. Luis Arraez may very well win a batting title soon, and the Twins better make sure he does it in a Minnesota jersey.
  4. Allen Post
    The Twins signed veteran starter J.A. Happ to a one-year, $8 million deal this afternoon. Happ is 38 years old and pitched to a 3.47 ERA and a 1.054 WHIP in nine starts with the Yankees in 2020.
    At first glance, Happ’s addition feels like the kind of boring move that is necessary for contending teams to make. He’s not making national headlines, but he’ll slide right into the fourth spot in the rotation and he’ll get a lot of important outs throughout the year as long as he stays healthy. With the addition, the rotation looks as follows:
    Maeda/Berrios
    The other of Maeda/Berrios
    Pineda
    Happ
    Dobnak

    That’s all well and good. That’s a high-level American League rotation. The eight million feels a little steep and Happ wasn’t on many of our radars, but you can’t be too mad at a hole getting filled.
     


    Happ pitched well in 2020 and hopes to keep fans smiling in Minnesota 
    It’s certainly still possible that the Twins still spend on another starter to get closer to a 2011 Phillies-esque “Four Aces” roster construction, but I just don’t see it. The rotation is seemingly set and there are bigger holes elsewhere. While Trevor Bauer was probably always going to be too spendy, guys like Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton no longer seem like possibilities for the Twins. Of course, Jake Odorizzi could come back into the fold and push Pineda and Happ down to the four and five slots respectively. But I think Dobnak and a number of capable arms in the Twins system would hold down that five spot pretty well, so I would argue that there’s more upside in leaving Odo on the market and spending money elsewhere.
     
    So, now that starting pitching is no longer much of a target position, the Twins’ intentions for the rest of the free agency period become a little bit clearer. We’ve been hearing about and hoping for the possibility of big moves in the coming weeks and months, and now we know better where the money will be spent. Before today, the holes in the roster were primarily at shortstop (or utility), DH, the four spot in the rotation, and in the bullpen. Falvey and Levine just filled the hole in the rotation with a somewhat cheap one-year deal. This limited commitment to the starting rotation suggests that the front office is saving money for big moves elsewhere. And it seems that any big commitments from the Twins’ will be made at short, DH or in the bullpen.
     


    Happ's low-commitment deal allows the Twins flexibility to acquire top talent 
    At DH, the Twins are in position to bring back Nelson Cruz for one more ride or for a big multi-year investment in Marcell Ozuna. There are options at short too, such as Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, or blue-chip trade options Trevor Story or Javier Báez. They could also go out and get top relievers like Trevor Rosenthal and Brad Hand, but filling out the pen with cheap signings and homegrown talent is more Minnesota’s style. We could also see the club sprinkle money in a lot of places at once, signing a bunch of mid-level guys instead of one big-ticket player.
     
    There is, of course, a chance that the Twins remain pretty inactive, and rely on guys currently in the organization to make another playoff run. For most Twins fans, this would be a worst-case scenario and, as the days go on, our collective worries grow. For the most pessimistic fans, this signing will provide little comfort. J.A. Happ isn’t a big signing. But for me, he fills a hole that allows the Twins more flexibility to pursue the bigger fish in the free agency sea. And, they will make those big signings eventually…we hope.
  5. Allen Post
    Let’s forget for a second about WAR, launch angle, and exit velocity. Push your thoughts of FIP, xFIP, and BABIP to the side, and remember why we all got into baseball in the first place. It’s fun. So, I’ve compiled a short list of potential future Twins, and rated how fun they’d be in Minnesota from Boring to Very Fun. Enjoy.
     
    Javier Báez – Very Fun
    The Twins are in the market for a new shortstop and the Cubs seem to be in fire sale mode, so a move that sends Báez to Minnesota might be in both clubs’ best interests. And, simply put, Báez maxes out the fun meter. He’s a still relatively young, swagger-filled middle infielder that does amazing things in the field and sports a good amount of pop in his bat. Forget about his mediocre 2020 stats for a second – watching Báez play is fun because he has the look and the confidence of the best player on the field even if he really isn’t anymore. He’s been on the cover of The Show, something nobody else on this list can claim. And, I’ve kind of buried the lede here – the coolest part about El Mago (cool nickname too) are his tags.
     

     
    Trevor Story – Kinda Fun
    Trevor Story, another shortstop trade possibility, gets a Kinda Fun designation because, though he may be the best available option at short, he doesn’t boast the star power and flair of Báez and others. Don’t get me wrong – Story is a star; he’s great in the field and at the plate, but looking at his stats on baseball reference is almost more exciting that watching him play. It doesn’t help that he’s been marooned off in Colorado, but Story just doesn’t have that “it factor” or special skill that sets him above the other great shortstops in the league, at least in terms of fun-ness. He does have a pretty mean bat flip, but there’s no crazy tag compilation out there on YouTube, for example. He’ll be a very welcome addition to the Twins if he comes, but a middle-of-the-road rating on the fun meter feels right.
     
    Marcus Semien – Boring
    Marcus Semien is probably the best shortstop available on the free agency market, but there’s a reason a lot of Twins fans would rather give up young talent in a Báez or Story trade than simply sign the former Oakland shortstop. Signing Semien would just give off the feeling that they needed a shortstop and signed a shortstop, not the shortstop that anybody really wants. Semien has been a top-tier player in the past, but a pretty dismal 2020 makes him feel like a more expensive Jorge Polanco rather than a Polanco replacement, and spending on a player that does little to change the status quo is the opposite of fun. Perhaps if I allowed myself to make a joke about his last name, I could bump him up a few levels, but I’m not going to do that so he’s stays at Boring.
     
    Nelson Cruz – Fun
    Perhaps the Twins’ biggest question of the offseason is whether to bring Nelson Cruz back or not and, while our opinions may vary widely on whether it’s wise to spend on a 40-year-old DH, that’s not what I’m here to talk about. Nelson Cruz is fun. With Cruz, there’s no “shiny new car” feeling because he’s been in Minnesota for two years, but there’s a reason he’s been your dad’s favorite Twins player those two years. He’s been a star in the league for the better part of a decade and we love when stars come to Minnesota, especially when they lead the team to an MLB record for home runs. Even better, Cruz’s locker room personality is the driving force behind the “Bomba Squad” moniker and the team identity that’s the Twins last few years on of the most fun teams in the league.
     


    Marcell Ozuna – Fun
    Should the Twins decide against bringing back Cruz, Marcell Ozuna could serve as a long-term high-end option at DH. Though losing Cruz might be sad for many Twins fans, they’d be getting no downgrade in the fun department with Ozuna. He’s a big, muscular dude who wears a bright chartreuse arm sleeve and hits bombs. Massive bombs. In large quantities. Last year, Ozuna led the league in home runs and runs batted in and, though there are certainly more intelligent stats, big homer and RBI guys are very fun to have in the lineup. Advanced stats fans should like him too, as his exit velocity numbers and hard hit percentage were among the best in the league last year. The only thing keeping Ozuna from rising into the Very Fun tier is the possibility of a regression that could make him a Sanó-esque strikeout frustration.
     

     
    Trevor Bauer – Very Fun
    Now, the Twins odds acquiring the free agent ace and reigning NL Cy Young winner aren’t that great, but he falls into the Very Fun category, so it’s fun to imagine. Bauer is and always has been controversial, so he may not be every Twins fan’s cup of tea, but that’s exactly why I would love to have him so much. The guy who talks the most and angers the most people is exactly the type of guy you want on your team, as long as he’s playing well. And fresh off a Cy Young year, he’s certainly doing that. Above all else though, Bauer has a curious and innovative baseball mind that, as a fan, is fun to see on your favorite team. His appreciation for the craft of pitching is something that every Twins fan ought to be able to appreciate, even if some don’t like his attitude. Also – He’s a fun follow on YouTube.
     

     
    Sonny Gray – Not That Fun
    Gray, who was Bauer’s teammate last year in Cincinnati, would also be a good addition to the Twins rotation, but he’s not nearly as exciting. With a career ERA in the threes and a WHIP in the 1.2 range, Minnesota fans would probably be happy to have him, but we also managed to make Carl Pavano seem exciting. The fact is that, since he burst into the bigs as a rookie, nobody has ever called you excitedly to say “Hey, did you see what Sonny Gray did last night?!?!” unless they were a Yankees fan complaining about his poor performance in pinstripes. Gray seems like a fun guy to know and have in the locker room, but that doesn’t make him a fun player to watch. If he signs with Minnesota, he’ll be a mid-rotation out-getter more than a jersey-seller.
     
     
    Trevor Rosenthal – Kinda Fun
    The Twins haven’t had a true flamethrower in the bullpen (other than Brusdar Graterol’s 10 games) in a long while, but that’s what they would get by bringing in free agent reliever Trevor Rosenthal. Rosenthal looked on the brink of exiting the league not too long ago but was dominant down the stretch for the Padres last year, and he regularly touched triple-digit velocity. A dominant hard-throwing reliever is one of most exciting players to watch and have on your team, so Rosenthal, should he sign, would be a very entertaining player to have around. However, he’s only a year removed from being an out of control
    , and those guys are torturous to watch. I’ll hedge my bets and put him at Kinda Fun.
  6. Allen Post
    As we turn the calendar page over on a new year (or actually replace the calendar I guess), it’s fair to say that we’re all a little bit anxious. We may be anxious about any number of things, but, specifically regarding the Twins, we see holes in the roster, unsigned free agents capable of filling those holes, and a whole lot of nothing in terms of new signings. Everybody has their favorite potential signing and their own opinion on whether Nelson Cruz should come back, but, save for the Minnesota contingent of the Hansel Robles fan club, nobody’s ideal plan has even started to take shape. We’re just waiting, hoping that the holes get filled soon, and guessing at who they’ll be filled by.
     
    Though it’s been worse this year due to uncertainty about game schedules and a potential National League DH, this anxious waiting-for-things-to-happen period has become a staple of the Major League Baseball offseason because the league’s free agency rules have one pretty major flaw. Every year, fans have to sit and wait while signings trickle in slowly and the top free agents – some of the best players in the league – can go months without a team. And it’s due in large part to the league’s rules about service time.
     
    Under MLB’s free agency rules, a player does not qualify for free agency until they have six years of major-league service time or if they’re not offered a contract by the team that owns their rights (non-tender free agents). This means that almost all successful major-league players won’t see free agency until they’ve been in the league for six years. And, taking into account the significant time players spend in the minors, it means that most are pushing thirty by the time they get to choose where to play (as you can see here). Ok, so what? The issue is that, at 30, most players are at their career peak or just past it, and there’s often no telling how fast a player’s decline will come. There are just as many immediate disappointments like Lance Lynn as there are ageless wonders like Nelson Cruz. There are very few “sure things.”
     


    Lynn's failures as a Twin show the unpredictability of signing most veteran free agents 
    And, because baseball doesn’t have a salary cap, the guys that are closest to “sure things” (Realmuto, Ozuna, Springer and Bauer this year) can demand massive, $25+ million per year deals as the price for their services. Understandably, teams are wary of spending this kind of money, but they still want those blue-chip players. As a result, we get long drawn-out negotiations that cause fans to wait while players and teams are stuck in stalemates. And, because many teams are holding their money for the star free agents, the markets for the lesser free agents don’t really start until the big fish find new homes.
     
    The result of all of this is a lot of waiting for the upper- and mid-level free agents to sign, and when they do, the best players will cost a scary amount of money and the others may or may not ever significantly help the team that signs them. Major League Baseball could fix this by peeling back the service time requirements (creating younger, deeper free agent classes) or by instituting a salary cap and max contract system (keeping players from demanding such huge contracts), but neither is likely to happen, so it seems that we’ll be stuck with baseball’s inefficient free agency system going forward.
     
    Fortunately, this inefficiency actually helps the Twins. You see, if baseball had less stringent service time rules and free agency was more efficient, the wealthy teams that already dominate free agency would become that much more dominant. The better free agency gets, the better rich teams get. Imagine for a second if baseball had free agency rules like the NHL, where players are eligible for free agency at age 27 at the latest (NBA and NFL players see free agency even earlier) – Miguel Sanó and Max Kepler may already be in Yankee pinstripes or Dodger blue and José Berríos would be a year away from heading to Boston. That’s not good. Flashback to reality and the Twins can feature these players for years to come and have time and security to work out long-term deals without having to bid against richer teams. That is good. Major League Baseball’s free agency rules value team control more than any other major sports league in America and team control of young talent is exactly what the Twins have been successful with throughout their history.
     


    Sanó and Kepler are players the Twins are glad to have long-term 
    Sure, the new front office group has been able to spend more in recent years and they deserve real credit for turning Target Field into a free agent destination worthy of bringing in players like Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz. But, even so, it’s naïve to think that the Twins could compete with the top spenders in the league if free agency were expanded. The team is still built on developed talent, and that’s okay because they’re damn good at it. “Fixing” free agency would only allow other teams to steal the Twins’ homegrown talent away earlier in their careers.
    So, the next time you find yourself getting frustrated at the lack of Twins signings or at the fact that Jorge Polanco is still the best shortstop on the roster, remind yourself to be thankful that Jorge Polanco and others are still on the roster at all. Yes, I’d like a more exciting free agency period, too. But, in this case, we should be careful what we wish for.
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