My basic theories/assumptions:
A. Be realistic. If your plan assumes Cole, Strasburg, Ryu, Rendon, Chapman, or Bumgarner will sign here, I think you are doing this exercise wrong.
B. Teams are likely to hang onto those solid #2/3 starters (Syndergaard, Minor, Ray, etc) in the offseason unless you overpay or they are trying to dump salary.
C. Keep our young hitting core intact.
D. Our top prospects are not quite ready.
E. Supplement existing team with the best starter, reliever, and position player we can realistically get.
F. Trade for an ace and a really good reliever at the deadline, unless 2020 is not our year or Berrios takes a big leap.
G. The FO is willing to spend up to $160 Million in salary to field a really nice team
NEW FACES:
1. trade for Trevor Bauer (something like Balazovic + Javier + Rijo/Vallimont)
- I see Bauer as the best gettable starter.
- his trade value is hurt by a bunch of factors but it's hard to say by how much. this could obviously backfire.
* backup plan: trade Rijo for Arrieta + salary relief
2. sign Didi Gregorius (1 year, $18 + player option)
- he'll have a strange market, and he'll want to be in the middle of a good lineup to build value so the Twins are a perfect fit for him. 2-3 years works also with Marwin gone after 2020, but I don't think he wants that.
- I'm assuming the Yankees are saving money and won't offer a QO
3. sign Dellin Betances (2 years/$22 + team option/buyout)
- I'm OK with the slight overpay, hard to say how much he'll get coming off a bunch of injuries.
COMING BACK:
1. pick up Nelson Cruz' option ($12)
- duh, done
2. re-sign Sergio Romo (2 years, $8)
- solid vet back there
3. re-sign Michael Pineda (2 years/$30 + team option)
- mike was our best pitcher the second half of 2019
4. re-sign Jake Odorizzi (3 years/$51)
- this will end up being a slight waste of money but needs to happen anyway
5. re-sign Kyle Gibson (1 year/$8 + team option)
- 3.62 ERA in 2018/career 4.29 FIP/nasty illness in 2019. why does everybody want to dump the Twins lifer? I think he will be a well-above-average #4/5 starter and a dominant reliever in the postseason.
6. Sign/extend Mitch Garver. (5 years/$50)
- yes I know he is about to turn 29
POSITION SWITCHES:
move Sano to 1B
move Polanco to 3B
OPENING DAY PAYROLL is around $158 million, I guessed on the arb numbers.
LINEUP:
1. RF Kepler ($7)
2. 3B Polanco ($4)
3. DH Cruz ($12)
4. 1B Sano ($6)
5. SS Gregorius ($18)
6. LF Rosario ($7)
7. C Garver ($2)
8. CF Buxton ($3)
9. 2B Arraez ($0.5)
Gonzalez ($9)
Astudillo ($0.5)
Wade ($0.5)
Adrianza ($3)
Lineup recap: replace Cron in the lineup with Gregorius, while improving the defense a bit and making Astudillo just a catcher.
STARTERS:
Bauer ($16.5)
Odorizzi ($17)
Berrios ($6)
Pineda ($15 adjusted to $12)
Gibson ($8)
BULLPEN:
Rogers ($5)
Betances ($11)
Romo ($4)
Duffey ($1.5)
Graterol ($0.5)
May ($3)
Littell ($0.5)
Smeltzer ($0.5)
POSTSEASON STAFF (projected):
1. Ace via midseason trade
2. Bauer
3. Pineda
4. Odorizzi
Berrios (until he gets past late-season faltering, he's in the pen in the postseason)
Betances
Reliever via midseason trade
Rogers
Duffey
Gibson
Romo
Graterol
THE DUMPED:
1. decline CJ Cron
- too much meh
4. decline Sam Dyson
- and send the Giants a nice gift basket full of sharp, dangerous objects
3. decline Martin Perez
- offer him a minor league deal
4. other FA position players (Castro, Schoop)
5. trade Jake Cave for a minor leaguer with options
REMOVE(D) From 40-Man:
Cave
Castro
Schoop
Cron
Torreyes
Lamarre
Miller
Dyson (possible 2 year Pineda-esque rehab deal)
Perez (offer minor-league deal)
Harper (offer minor-league deal)
Stewart (offer minor-league deal)
Hildenberger (offer minor-league deal)
Poppen (offer minor-league deal)
PROTECT from Rule 5:
Raley
Duran
Jax
Blankenhorn
Colina
** T. Wells
also still on the 40:
Thorpe, Shashak, Dobnak, Gordon, Alcala, Gonsalves, Romero
** Wells can be transferred to the 60-day DL after the season starts, which is why I protected him.
PITFALLS:
1. only 2 catchers to open the 40-man is not ideal, but should attract good minor league FAs.
2. not a ton of room to add payroll at the deadline unless attendance kicks ass the first half.
3. not many backup position players who are close to major league ready. Gordon, Raley, Blankenhorn, and a 3rd catcher (Rortvedt/Jeffers/Telis/other minor league FA) better be ready to play.
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