ande4148

I don't think it's appropriate to compare the prior RE with the post RE in this situation. I think you should compare the post RE for both events. 1st and 2nd ,1 out: RE = 1 run; 0 on ,2 outs: RE = 0.11 runs. After the event that stopped the run scoring, you expect 1 run. After the event that allowed the run to score, you expect 0.11 runs. Therefor, it is 1 run versus 0.11 + 1 (the run actually scored). The right choice is to take the out at home, ignoring the time in the game. Using the prior RE of 1.79 and only adding the 1 run that actually scored to the 0.11 post event RE, ignores all the possibilities where more than 1 scored before the post event state. Using 1.79 for comparison requires including all those possibilities.