Search the Community

In a new offering for Twins Daily readers, Twins Fantasy Fix will focus on Minnesota Twins players and some opponents with an eye on helping your fantasy team. Not everyone plays fantasy sports, but even if you don't, you will still enjoy these articles . Image courtesy of William Parmeter Playing fantasy baseball is fun. Know what’s even more fun? Playing – and winning – fantasy baseball with Minnesota Twins on your team! That’s the idea behind Twins Fantasy Fix. This new weekly series will feature fantasy analysis through the lens of your favorite MLB squad. That means looking at how Twins players are doing throughout the season, whether that’s stars like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton or sleepers who are ready to surprise (think 2019 Randy Dobnak. Or maybe 2023 Randy Dobnak, if you’re ready to believe again). I’ll mix in some streaming advice and MLB-wide fantasy thoughts here and there as well. Before we dive in, a few housekeeping notes first: I’ll gear these columns toward roto-style leagues as opposed to points formats, and I’ll use ESPN for items such as average draft position (ADP) and ownership rate, though hopefully you’ll find value in these articles no matter your format. I’ll also plan on working in some daily fantasy flavor. Because the season isn’t quite here (soon!), I’ll use this first installment to offer some year-long outlooks. Without further ado, it’s time for your Twins Fantasy Fix! Offensive MVP: Byron Buxton Buxton is the fourth Twin off the board on average, behind Correa, Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan. And that’s understandable, given Buxton’s well-documented injury history. However, none of those players offer quite the upside that Buxton does. In only 92 games last season, he blasted 28 home runs. Over the last three years, his per-162 average would be 51 home runs, 93 RBI, 110 runs scored and 14 stolen bases to boot. Of course, he’s unlikely to play anywhere close to 162 games, but this prediction is based on the (wishful?) belief that Buxton will stay on the field more this year. The offseason addition of Michael A. Taylor gives the Twins a great insurance plan in center field, and Rocco Baldelli has already indicated that Buxton will see a lot of time at DH in the early going. Twins fans may prefer to see Buck in center, but fantasy managers don’t care much about defense. A healthy Buxton has the potential to be a fantasy star, this year and every year. Pitching MVP: Jhoan Duran There are a handful of Minnesota starters who could get the nod here, but without a true ace to pick, I decided to go with the upside of Duran. Last year, the flamethrower posted an elite 1.86 ERA and 0.98 WHIP across 67 2/3 innings while also racking up 89 strikeouts. Duran also recorded eight saves, and that is the stat most fantasy managers are interested in. Baldelli has traditionally played matchups rather than deploy a traditional closer, so Duran, Jorge Lopez, and possibly others could all see save opportunities this year. However, Duran is the team’s best reliever, so it’s reasonable to expect his save number to go up, particularly if the Twins are more competitive in 2023. Even if Duran doesn’t see a huge spike in saves, he should be a strong asset in roto leagues due to his positive contributions in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. For managers who punt saves and want to target ratios, Duran is a great option. And if he gets closer to 15 or 20 saves (or more), the ceiling will only go higher. Sleeper: Max Kepler The reasoning here is that the only way to go is up. Kepler had a brutal 2022, posting a .666 OPS, nine home runs and 43 RBI across 115 games. His breakout 2019 campaign, when he hit 36 home runs and tallied 90 RBI, seems like a distant memory. It also seemed like the Twins were going to trade the outfielder in the offseason, but Kepler is still around, and that means he should still start most days in right field, where he’s a plus defender. As a pull hitter, Kepler figures to benefit from the new rule limiting the shift. This could go south in a hurry, and the team may still decide to trade him at some point, but he’s at least had a promising spring. Kepler is owned in only about five percent of ESPN leagues, so the acquisition cost is quite low on this lottery ticket. Just don’t hesitate to cut bait. Super sleeper: Edouard Julien Twins Daily readers are familiar with Julien by now, but for fantasy managers in many redraft leagues, he’s not a household name. Julien will begin the season at Triple-A, though he could push to make his MLB debut at some point after batting .303 with a .934 OPS in Double-A last year. The key with Julien will be Jorge Polanco’s health moving forward, as he’s set to start the year on the injured list due to his balky knee. The likes of Nick Gordon, Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer are all short-term replacement options, but if Polanco continues to have issues throughout the season, the team will likely give Julien a shot. If that happens, it’s not out of the question that the youngster breaks out like Jose Miranda did in 2022. That would provide a huge jolt to savvy fantasy managers. Those four are a good start to any fantasy baseball team. Which Twins are you picking for big fantasy seasons? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the COMMENTS below. Please also share what you’d like to see covered here in the future, or post your fantasy baseball questions, Twins-centric or otherwise. View full article

We're approaching the 10-day countdown to the season opener and things are not trending well in a variety of critical areas. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Let's start with the good news: Byron Buxton seems to be healthy and on track for the start of the season. Even though he has yet to play in a major-league spring training game, the club's conservative approach to ramping him up seems like it's going according to plan. He's getting enough action on the side fields and in minor-league games to sharpen his skills and find his timing, while the Twins are mostly keeping his workload light until the meaningful action begins. So that's good. Elsewhere, the recent news has been less encouraging. We'll start with Jorge Polanco, who's been handled in a similar fashion to Buxton this spring despite much vaguer circumstances. We know Buxton was bothered by a knee issue throughout the 2022 season, and underwent surgery to address it in the offseason. Even beyond that, it makes sense to limit exposure for a player who so frequently gets hurt while on the field, and who doesn't seem to need much traditional preparation to find his groove. Polanco, on the other hand, is a much more perplexing situation. We know he suffered a knee injury last August and that it was deemed relatively minor at the time. He repeatedly tried to return to the field but couldn't make it back before the end of the campaign. Polanco reportedly spent much of his offseason rehabbing the knee, but there's never been a sense this spring that he was physically right. Unfortunately, that's now been confirmed. On Sunday, Derek Falvey finally acknowledged to reporters that Polanco is doubtful for Opening Day. "He hasn’t been able to do all the leg activities and all the legwork and all the running and all the strength and conditioning stuff that everybody would at this stage, so some of it’s just responding to where he is from a timing standpoint," Falvey said. "Obviously, the calendar plays a role now as we get closer and closer to Opening Day." While it's entirely possible the Twins were trying to do the right thing all along here – they might have genuinely thought Polanco was in a decent place at the start of camp, and that a slow ramp-up would get him to where he needed to be – and it simply hasn't played out as hoped. But with the way things went last year, this is definitely a foreboding development that will make it difficult for fans to trust what they're hearing from the team when it comes to updating on their myriad health concerns. Polanco is among three of the four projected starting infielders for the Twins this year who've yet to play an official spring inning at their position. José Miranda has been limited by shoulder soreness which has prevented him from getting much-needed reps at third base, although he does seem (hopefully) close to turning a corner. Meanwhile Alex Kirilloff's status remains in doubt as he works back from a second wrist surgery. Just days earlier, Falvey had characterized Kirilloff as – between Buxton, Polanco, and himself – "probably the one that’s a little bit behind our schedule." Now he's flip-flopped the latter two. From the current view, it's difficult to read this as anything other than: we should not expect AK or Polo to be ready for the start of the season. On the bright side, Kirilloff did seem to take an important step forward this past week. In a minor-league game on Saturday, he played four innings defensively at first base, and went 0-for-2 at the plate. Getting action in a real game, even on the minors side, is a key milestone for the 25-year-old and theoretically gives him at least a shot at being ready for Opening Day. I wouldn't bet on it though. Ironically, Kirilloff was involved with another injury scare on Sunday. While facing Jhoan Durán, he smashed a line drive back up the middle that hit the top reliever in the leg. Ted Schwerzler, observing the action in Fort Myers, tweeted that Durán was "walking gingerly" before departing the field on his own power and riding a golf cart back to the complex. Hopefully nothing to worry about. These things happen, and typically don't amount to much more than a bruise. (That thankfully appears to be the case here.) But for Kirilloff, of all people, to accidentally peg Durán, whose ability to stay healthy for all of 2022 was one of the season's most pleasant surprises, is a cosmic twist of cruel irony. Speaking of which, the injury news didn't stop there on Sunday (bloody Sunday). Max Kepler exited the Twins' exhibition game against Atlanta with "left hip tightness." If that sounds familiar, the outfielder also dealt with hip issues during an injury-riddled conclusion to last year. Very possibly this is all much ado about nothing (or little). Opening Day is still a week-and-a-half away, and it would be drastic to assume the worst with any of these developing scenarios, let alone more unsubstantiated anxieties like Tyler Mahle's velocity or Kenta Maeda's spring results. At the same time, can Twins fans be blamed for doing just that? More good news would be eagerly welcomed. View full article

FORT MYERS - The Twins' lineup has been brutal versus left-handed pitching for the last three years. Here's how that should change. Image courtesy of Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports In 2020, as we impatiently waited for the shortened season to start, we knew one thing about the Twins: they would crush left-handed pitchers. Any southpaw that had to negotiate a lineup filled with right-handed power like Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver, and new addition Josh Donaldson would need to pack a lunch. We had seen it the year before, when the Twins as a team had posted an 872 OPS versus left-handers, the best mark in MLB. Then this happened: YEAR OPS RANK 2019 872 1 2020 658 27 2021 725 22 2022 701 20 Not only did they slide from first to 27th in 2020, but even when we got back to playing full seasons of baseball, they continued to languish in the lower third of the league. There have been two problems, one weird and one common. The weird first problem is that Twins’ right-hander batters didn’t crush left-handers the way we expected. Here are all the right-handed hitting and switch-hitting Twins who had at least 100 plate appearances versus southpaws over the last three years. Player OPS▼ Nelson Cruz 1.142 Carlos Correa 0.945 Byron Buxton 0.927 Josh Donaldson 0.912 Kyle Garlick 0.837 Jose Miranda 0.821 Ryan Jeffers 0.794 Gio Urshela 0.775 Mitch Garver 0.754 Jorge Polanco 0.734 Andrelton Simmons 0.635 Miguel Sanó 0.630 Gary Sanchez 0.554 Gilberto Celestino 0.533 Some of those names I mentioned earlier continued to mash, but Garver was suddenly human, and Sano batted like he went up their hitting left-handed. Even Gary Sanchez had problems with what should have been his bread and butter. I’ve also highlighted the players that are still with the organization this year. The only regular that isn’t in the top half of that list is Jorge Polanco, who is a switch-hitter, but hitting left-handed is his strong side of the plate. That could make him a candidate to sit versus left-handers, though there is no indication that is coming soon. Which brings us to the second problem. Most teams face the second problem: their left-handed batters just don’t hit left-handed pitchers very well. This is easily illustrated by taking a look at the two most potent left-handed bats in the lineup from 2020 through 2022, Luis Arraez and Max Kepler. Arraez, who was the AL Batting Champion last year, has hit just .256 versus left-handers over the last three years. Read that last sentence again. That's a stark discrepancy, but Kepler has been quite a bit worse. 420 MLB players have had at least 100 plate appearances versus left-handed pitchers over the last three years. Kepler’s 552 OPS (not a typo) ranks him 385th on that list. Yet the Twins have invested 301 plate appearances in that futility. It doesn’t look like they’ll be doing so this year, or at least not as often, because one of the themes of the offseason was gathering veteran right-handed bench bats. The offseason started with them trading for Kyle Farmer, and the offensive skill on which he has built his career is hitting left-handers hard. Over the last three years he has posted a 880 OPS against southpaws. The last move they made was signing infielder Donovan Solano to one-year deal. Solano has hit .313 versus left-handers over the last three years, posting a 815 OPS. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like either of those guys will play much in a corner outfield spot, and that’s where Kepler and left-handed hitting Joey Gallo play. Gallo has posted just a 664 OPS versus left-handers the last three years. That’s better than Kepler, but still provides an opportunity for an upgrade. Enter Michael A. Taylor , who the Twins acquired from the Royals late this offseason. Taylor is known more for his defense than his offense (career OPS of 677), but he has continued to do damage versus left-handers over the last three years, posting a 722 OPS. With their revamped bench, the Twins can trot out guys who can swing from the right side of the plate in eight of their nine spots in the lineup – and still have one extra guy on the bench. Plus they will likely have right-handed outfield thumper Kyle Garlick stowed away in AAA-St Paul in case of an emergency. The Twins haven’s said publicly that fortifying their lineup versus left-handed pitching was a priority this offseason, so maybe this wasn’t purposeful; maybe it was just fortunate. Whatever. Manager Rocco Baldelli appears to have the chess pieces to respond when a southpaw is on the mound, either as a reliever or a starter. Soon we’ll see if all that preparation fixes the three-year-old problem. View full article

Defying expectations, Max Kepler is back. It appears he'll be Minnesota's Opening Day starter in right field for a seventh consecutive season. Will this be his Target Field swan song, or his triumphant reawakening? Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports Projected Starter: Max Kepler Likely Backup: Joey Gallo Depth: Michael A. Taylor, Trevor Larnach, Kyle Garlick Prospects: Matt Wallner, Jose Rodriguez, Kala'i Rosario THE GOOD Even during a 2022 season that rated as the worst of his career, and had him somberly reflecting on whether he picked the right sport, Kepler's underlying skill and baseball prowess were easy to see. As usual, he roamed right field with excellence, ranging all over to track down fly balls and line drives most peers cannot reach. The standard for RF, at the bottom end of the defensive spectrum, gives Kepler a big advantage as a stellar athlete with a glove that could play in center. He ranked fifth among MLB right fielders in Defensive Runs Saved with 10, and was in the 97th percentile for Outs Above Average. FanGraphs pegged him as the second-most valuable defender at the position, behind Arizona's Daulton Varsho. Kepler's fielding is verifiably elite. His bat has of course been a different story, but you wouldn't know it from looking at the raw batted ball metrics. Kepler's Statcast sliders are a sea of red, indicating high-end rankings on measurements like exit velocity, expected batting average, chase rate, and beyond. Kepler has a very good plate approach and he routinely makes quality contact. Yet, this all manifested last year in a .227/.318/.348 slash line, which – even in a depressed offensive environment – compared quite poorly against the average AL right fielder (244/.310/.407). Analysis shows that to a large degree, Kepler creates his own bad luck with a hitting profile so predictable that opposing pitchers and defenses have learned to expertly suppress it. That said, last year his level of bad luck was off the charts. The outfielder's fortunes seem naturally likely to rebound, and the new shift limitations figure to further aid his improvement. This dynamic gave the Twins hope that another team might fancy Kepler as a buy-low candidate worth ponying up for. Alas, they didn't get an offer that moved them, so the front office held on, and will hope to cash in on their own bounce-back threat, whose return alongside the Gallo signing creates an abundant level of corner outfield depth. Taking Kepler's history here out of the equation, I think that if the Twins were to trade for a player sharing Kepler's attributes – an underperforming great athlete in his prime with one more year under contract followed by team options – most fans would see it as a smart gamble. THE BAD Among the top five players we have listed on the RF depth chart atop this article, here are their final OPS+ figures from the 2022 season: Kepler: 93 Gallo: 79 Taylor: 90 Larnach: 104 Garlick: 104 Only two modestly above-average hitters in the bunch, and they both missed most of the season due to injury. As helpful as Kepler's glove is in the outfield, his lack of offense has made him a limiting factor in the lineup. The same could potentially be true of Gallo or Taylor if they're pushed into duty. With so many questions elsewhere, the Twins could really use a steady and reliable producer at this bat-driven position. Since Kepler's career year in 2019, the Twins have been below-average in wOBA from right fielders every year, ranking 23rd in both of the past two. If Kepler can't snap that trend, the team is now in a realistic position to move on. If and when that time comes, Gallo or Taylor or Larnach might not be next in line. Wallner is their reigning Minor League Player of the Year and he got a taste of the majors last September. With decent outfield range and maybe the best arm in the system, Wallner is built for right field. Bringing lots of strikeouts and lots of power, the organization's No. 11 prospect contrasts sharply from Kepler stylistically, but it's not hard to envision him offering equal value (at a small fraction of the cost) as soon as this year. That is: if Wallner can break the mold of K-prone sluggers who mash in the minors but struggle to break through in the majors. The 25-year-old's development this season will have a decisive influence on the plan for this position going forward. THE BOTTOM LINE A changing of the guard is afoot in right field for the Twins. Kepler is one of their longest-tenured players, but the nearing end of this player-team relationship feels apparent from a number of different perspectives. He's entering his final guaranteed year under contract, was openly the subject of trade rumors all winter, and is now being pressed by several up-and-coming prospects as his game stagnates. For the time being, Kepler's still here. Though down and out, he's a skilled and athletic player coming off the unluckiest season of his career, with a few things due to finally break in his favor. If he doesn't turn it around, the Twins have a wealth of other current and future options. If he does, it could introduce create an interesting set of decisions for the front office. For as long as he's been around, Kepler is still only 30 and he has a 2024 team option for $10 million. Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field Position Analysis: Center Field View full article

Bailey Ober and Max Kepler have been two of the best Minnesota Twins players down in spring training so far. They both stayed hot this afternoon against the Pirates. Also featured in today's video are Willi Castro, Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, some highlights from the other split squad game against the Rays and more. View full video

No team can have a perfect roster heading into the season. For the Twins, there are weak spots on the roster, but there is hope for some of those positions. Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports In recent weeks, there has been a lot of analysis of team and player projections here at Twins Daily. Not all of these models are perfect, but it gives fans a sense of reasonable expectations for each player and the team. Some players exceed their expected performance every year, and others struggle to meet expectations. Here are the weakest positions on the Twins roster and how they may impact the club in 2023. 3. Right Field- Projected WAR: 2.7 Max Kepler's name was in the rumor mill for most of the winter, but the Twins seemingly didn't get an offer they liked, so he's set to be an everyday player. There's no question that Kepler is one of baseball's best defensive right-fielders. Last season, Kepler hit .227/.318/.348 (.666) with 18 doubles and nine home runs. Minnesota has other options in right field if the Twins need to use Kepler in more of a platoon role, including Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. It's an important season for Kepler because the Twins have a $10 million team option for 2024. He'd need to outperform his projections for the team not to buy out his contract for $1 million. Reason for Optimism: There is some optimism that Kepler will benefit from the limits on defensive shifts. He has already picked up a few hits this spring that might have been outs if defenders were allowed to have more exaggerated shifts. This spring, he has already discussed how he won't need to overthink in the batter's box with three infielders on one side of second base. Reports also have him in a good mindset after spending the offseason overseas to mentally reset himself while recovering from a toe fracture. 2. Left Field- Projected WAR: 2.1 Left field ranks close to the top for the Twins in early season projections because Joey Gallo is coming off his worst professional season. In 126 games, he posted a 79 OPS+ with 163 strikeouts. If Gallo can't improve, the Twins have depth in left field with players like Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Out of that trio, only Gordon projects to make the Opening Day roster. Larnach and Wallner will head to Triple-A and need to hit their way back to the big leagues. Other top prospects like Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are options to take over a corner outfield spot later in the season. Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Gallo has a bounce-back season and can be closer to the All-Star level player he was in the past. FanGraphs projects his OPS to increase by 93 points, which would still be lower than his career mark (.794 OPS). Left field is the easiest position for the Twins players to exceed their expected performance, and it is the position I am least worried about on this list. 1. First Base- Projected WAR: 1.9 FanGraphs recently ranked the weakest positions on every contending team, and first base came out as the low spot on the Twins. Alex Kirilloff is a question mark at first base since he has averaged just over 50 games in the last two seasons. Projection systems won't help Kirilloff because he has tried to play through his wrist injury, and his on-field performance has suffered. The Twins won't rely solely on Kirilloff at first base. Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Jose Miranda, and Donovan Solano can all play first base if Kirilloff is forced to miss time again in 2023. Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Kirilloff's surgery to shorten his ulnar bone will put him back on track to where he was as a top prospect. Fans have seen flashes of him being an elite hitter, but his wrist injury saps power from his swing. If this most recent wrist surgery is a long-term solution to his wrist woes, he can be one of the club's best overall hitters. Luckily, all the Twins' weakest positions are in corner spots which can be easier to address during the season. As the trade deadline approaches, first basemen and corner outfielders are usually easier to acquire and have lower acquisition costs. The Twins also have multiple top prospects close to the big leagues that can step into an everyday role if the club feels like they are ready. Do you agree with these rankings? Is there a reason for optimism at each of the positions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Highlights from the Minnesota Twins spring training split squad action Sunday. Jose Miranda hit a pair of home runs in one game while Joey Gallo, Max Kepler and prospect Kala'i Rosario homered in the other. Also included are some highlights of Pablo López, Tyler Mahle, Carlos Correa, Jose Salas and much more. View full video

FORT MYERS - Kenta's back! Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The Twins faced an early split-squad set of games on Saturday afternoon to kick off the start of their 2023 Grapefruit League season. In the home game, Kenta Maeda returned to the mound after missing the 2022 season following Tommy John surgery and pitched a scoreless first inning. Lineup The Twins only had two anticipated regular position players in their home lineup: Joey Gallo led off and Max Kepler batted cleanup. However, they also had three other players practically guaranteed (health permitting, knock on wood) to make the 26-man roster: Ryan Jeffers at catcher, Kyle Farmer at shortstop and Michael A Taylor patrolled center field. The lineup also included Twins’ top prospects Edouard Julien (Twins Daily’s #5 prospect) and Brooks Lee (Twins Daily’s #1 prospect), who joined the lineup late when catcher Christian Vazquez was pulled from the lineup due to illness. Maeda’s Return But the most anticipated Twins player was Maeda. Twins fans had hoped to see him last September, perhaps in a relief role. But as team injuries and the season jointly spun out of control, all parties decided to wait until this spring for his return. Maeda was greeted rudely by Rays outfield prospect Josh Lowe with a double into the gap that went off of Joey Gallo’s glove. The good news? It was on a 90.8 mph fastball by Maeda showing velocity already near to what he threw pre-surgery. Lowe was slo unable to advance from second base, as Maeda escaped the inning on two ground balls and a strikeout, throwing 13 pitches, ten for strikes. That was the end of his day, as planned. "He was happy with his stuff", Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said after the game. "I was happy with his stuff. [Twins pitching coach] Pete [Maki] was happy with his stuff. So a very successful day and one we've been waiting a very long time for," The Shift Ban Both regulars in the lineup for the Twins, Gallo and Kepler, could be positively impacted by MLB’s limitation of “the shift” this year. In the first inning, we got a taste of what we might see. It’s not totally clear the results would have been any different, but both plays likely were completed differently than they would have been. The new limitation has two parts that could affect left-handed hitters. First, the shortstop can no longer play on the other side (the first base side) of second base. Second, second baseman can no longer play in short right field. He must remain on the infield dirt. For left-handed pull-hitters, the theory is this could mean more ground balls scooting through the right side of the infield for hits. Alas, that was not the case for Kepler, whose ground ball was fielded by the second baseman to the right of the bag and neatly flipped to the shortstop for a double-play to end the inning. It likely would have been fielded by the shortstop last year, but the double play might not have been as automatic. On the other hand, Gallo hit a soft line drive to right field over the first baseman’s head for a single. It’s not clear if that result would have been any different had the second baseman been deeper and on the grass – he would have had to range far to his left to get there – but it’s possible. It certainly seem like it would have been fielded by him instead of by the right-fielder. The next inning, we saw another impact of the new rule. Rays second baseman Vidal Brujan lined up too far over to the left side of the infield. It was called by the umpire, and as a result, the batter – Farmer – was awarded a ball. But with the umpires, players and coaches still working out the communication of the call, it was originally thought that a balk had been called, which would have scored Gallo from third base. After a discussion at home plate with the umpire, he returned to third base and was driven home on a sacrifice fly. Facing Southpaws We also got a taste of what we might see when the Twins face left-handed pitching this year. With the exception of Nick Gordon, the Twins entire “bench” is right-handed, and it sounds like Rocco intends to play matchups with them frequently, including in the starting lineup. It certainly worked on Saturday. The bottom of the lineup featured two non-roster invitees signed as minor league free agents. Switch-hitter Willi Castro is a 25-year-old infielder from the Tigers organization who started at third base. Tyler White, a 32-year-old, who has spent the last couple years in Triple-A, started at first base. But they looked like All-stars against Rays left-handed reliever Josh Fleming. Castro tripled to deep center and White homered. It blew the game open soon after it started, contributing to a 6-0 lead after just two innings. The Other Game Meanwhile, the Twins had another game going on in Sarasota vs the Orioles, with Louie Varland starting. Varland, Twins Daily's #9 prospect, threw two scoreless innings, but things turned sour in the second half of the game and the Twins fell 10-5. Mark Contreras and prospect Kala'i Rosario each homered for the Twins. Nick Gordon started the game with a triple and scored on a sacrifice fly off the bat of Austin Martin. It was interesting to note that the Twins had Gordon start at shortstop with Martin at second base. Martin (Twins Daily's #10 prospect) was hit by a pitch in his next plate appearance, but he must have been OK because he stole second base on the next pitch. Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner (Twins Daily's #11 prospect) went a combined 0-for-5 with a walk and five strikeouts. Aaron Sabato walked three times, and one of the newest Twins prospects, Jose Salas (Twins Daily's #8 prospect) walked twice. Randy Dobnak gave up one run despite two hits and two walks in his two innings of work. For the Orioles, Terrin Vavra - the youngest son of former Twins hitting coach and bench coach Joe Vavra - went 2-for-3 with a ground-rule double and a long home run. Curtis Terry, who spent last spring with the Twins, hit a three-run homer off of Brock Stewart. One of Baltimore's top prospects, Heston Kjerstad hit two home runs. Chris Vallimont gave up one run over two innings. Sauk Rapids native Anthony Bemboom started behind the plate for the O's and went 0-for-2. Next Up The team makes a long trek up to Clearwater to play the Phillies on Sunday. Joe Ryan will be starting for the Twins. The plan is for Jose Miranda to make the trip and hit third as the designated hitter. Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee should be in the lineup again, too. View full article

A number of Twins’ hitters are likely to benefit from the rule change, but the hitter most impacted by the new shift ban might not be who you think it is. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports With the new shift ban coming into effect in 2023, several Minnesota Twins’ hitters could stand to benefit. Joey Gallo, perhaps the face of the new rule change, is certainly one player who could see increased production. Max Kepler is another very pull-heavy hitter who could potentially see his numbers increase with a now more open right side of the infield. A lot of the focus of the shift ban has been directed to left-handed hitters, and understandably so. The shift against left-handed hitters was quite apparent, as it often involved a second baseman in right field and sometimes four outfielders, making baseball traditionalists sick to their stomachs as none of the players were seemingly in the spots they were supposed to be. There is one Twins hitter who might benefit most from the shift ban that I have rarely seen mentioned. He may not be an obvious shift victim candidate due to his physical profile and offensive production in the last couple of seasons, but he stands to gain more from the rule change more than players like Kepler and Gallo. That hitter is Byron Buxton. Believe it or not, Byron Buxton is not only the most pull-heavy hitter on the Twins but also the most pull-heavy player in all of baseball. According to Statcast, in 2022, out of hitters with 300 plate appearances, Buxton had the highest pull% in MLB at 54.2%. Gallo was eighth in pull% at 48.4%, and the league average pull% is 45.9%. Teams noticed this pull-happy tendency from Buxton and adjusted their defenses accordingly. In 2022 among hitters with 250 plate appearances, Buxton was shifted 78.8% of the time, good for 34th most in MLB but second most among right-handed hitters, only trailing Eugenio Suarez of the Seattle Mariners. The shift impacted Buxton dramatically. Contrary to standard thought, Buxton only hit .188 (13-for-69) on ground balls, despite his world-class speed. His shift and non-shift splits were jarring as well. In the 301 plate appearances against the shift, Buxton registered a .312 wOBA. When there was no shift, Buxton’s wOBA was .517 in only 81 plate appearances. The league average wOBA is .316, so a .517 wOBA in an 81 PA sample is astounding. His .205 difference in shift versus non-shift wOBA was the biggest in all of baseball among players who received at least 15 plate appearances against both the shift and no-shift. While it is impossible that Buxton can sustain a .517 wOBA, it may have been understated how much he can benefit from the shift ban. While the strikeout rate may limit him from reaching the elite tier of hitters in MLB, Buxton makes as consistent and hard contact as anyone. He ranked in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th percentile in barrel%, and 93rd percentile in hard hit%. His .224 batting average in 2022 may have disappointed some, but I would be shocked if it stays that low in 2023. Being able to hit ground balls again opens up new avenues for all hitters, particularly for ones like Byron Buxton, who runs like the wind. So while this new era of baseball defense may take some below-average hitters to average ones, it may also take the Twins’ superstar into a class of his own. View full article

FORT MYERS - Max Kepler talks about the shift ban, Byron Buxton is ready to lead a team with Carlos Correa, and Michael A. Taylor is looking for the green light. Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports We're trying something new for Twins Daily's Caretakers: an audio report from John Bonnes on what he's seeing and hearing from players, coaches, and management inside Hammond Stadium. Today's report includes: Max Kepler discusses "the most challenging thing I physically had to play with in my career" Byron Buxton's bromance with Carlos Correa. Michael A Taylor wants to go back to stealing some bases (and Rocco is all for it.) If you're a Caretaker, click here for your exclusive content! And if you're not, maybe consider becoming a Caaretaker? You likely visit regularly, and that's going to become even more likely as the season gears up. Supporting something you value feels good, especially when it's been here feeding your baseball habit for over 10 years for free, right? We're in spring training reporting because we love this stuff, and we want to share it as much as we can, so you can find lot of free content from Fort Myers other places on the site. But unfortunately, spring training is expensive, and that's especially true this year after Hurricane Ian damaged a lot of the lodging options. Plus, there are lot of other benefits, like a free Winter Meltdown ticket and early access for guest, special callouts on the site, and lots more inside or in-depth content like this. So please consider joining our little club. The money is going to a site you love, to support coverage you love, and writers you value. Thank you so much. Join Here to support Twins Daily and get your exclusive content! View full article

What did our mighty machine overlord spit out about the 2023 seasons of several Minnesota Twins hitters? Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus—one of baseball's leading analysis site—released their PECOTA projections for every player in MLB. PECOTA predicts nearly everything; minor stats like caught stealing, hit by pitch, and triples emanate from its crystal ball along with more crucial numbers like slugging and BABIP. For this article, we will focus on DRC+ and WARP. Below are Minnesota’s likely opening day position players (plus Royce Lewis) along with their position, DRC+, WARP, and player comp. You can read more about DRC+ here, but to oversimplify, it’s a play off Fangraphs’ wRC+ that also considers inputs like pitcher quality and play outcome relative to the stadium; a hit off Jacob deGrom is worth more than a hit off a position player, after all. 100 is league average, with each point in either direction standing as a percent in relation to the average. If that doesn’t make sense: Byron Buxton’s 119 projection means he will be 19% better than the average hitter. WARP is Baseball Prospectus’ version of WAR; 2.0 is considered an average player. Note: These are the 50% projections, meaning each player has a coin flip’s chance of beating or falling behind their projection. Alright! We have some zesty numbers above. I’m struck by Jorge Polanco standing as an equal with Carlos Correa (they were ranked 44 and 45, respectively) as they share an identical DRC+ projection. Cody Christie wrote that Polanco is Minnesota’s most underrated player, and he may be correct. Correa’s projection appears surprisingly tepid, given that he’s bested a 117 DRC+ in his last two seasons. The next surprise is Joey Gallo. Despite Gallo owning one of the most extreme profiles in baseball, PECOTA sees his 2022 as something of a fluke, and the machine hands him a generous 107 DRC+ projection. I think the Twins would be glad to receive that kind of production from Gallo. His comp is spot-on. Now, on to some disappointments. Nick Gordon’s 86 DRC+ appears low, but PECOTA is typically suspicious of high strikeout/high BABIP players. It’s a tricky balancing act—any drop in power kills his entire profile—but it’s not impossible for him to succeed; Gordon will need to prove himself again in 2023. Then, Trevor Larnach. I scrolled through about 1500 players before finding Larnach munching on algae at the bottom of the list, impressing no one with an 85 DRC+. He suffers from a similar ailment as Gordon: producing with a compromised strikeout-fueled skillset, but he also lacks the playing time to prove his system works. To end this article, we’ll go over a few fun projections. PECOTA loves what Yunior Severino cooked up in the minors last season, handing him a 97 DRC+ despite just a handful of games in the high minors. Jose Salas—part of Minnesota’s return for Luis Arraez—earns a 0.7 WARP projection despite a putrid offensive line; the machine must love his defense. PECOTA sees something in Jair Camargo’s profile; he earned a 0.4 WARP projection despite traveling in the same boat as Yunior Severino. And finally… 36-year-old ByungHo Park has a 99 DRC+ projection. Legends never die. Any other numbers catch your eye? Are there any projections not covered in this article you would like to know about? Leave a comment and start the discussion. Note: Baseball Prospectus tinkers with PECOTA until the start of the season; these numbers were taken on February 14th and may not match future projections. Also, if you question PECOTA's value, Rob Mains wrote about how successful the machine is and where it fails. View full article

Some matches are made in heaven. Others are made at One Twins Way. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports When Michael A. Taylor signed with the Twins in January, the defensive outlook on the outfield entered the absurd territory. Taylor is a Gold Glove centerfielder joining an outfield that already features two Gold Glove outfielders in Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo. The three occupy the top three spots in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) since 2020 among outfielders. Max Kepler, a great fielder in his own right (22nd in DRS), is slated to get most of the time in the right field. He joins Buxton and Taylor in the top 9 in Outs Above Average since 2020 (OAA; 8th, 9th, and 6th, respectively). If defensive metrics aren't your thing—they're far from perfect—do this mental exercise. Close your eyes and think of a defensive player that you would rather have at each position. (No, you can't say "Juan Soto," despite his being a Gold Glove finalist in 2022; be honest). The list for each is probably relatively short. To be in that type of position at all three spots is special. Because of the presence of four elite defenders, the Twins will be able to consistently mix and match to put a quality outfield behind their pitchers every day. All four players mentioned above can play serviceable-to-Gold-Glove centerfield. Gallo has won a Gold Glove in both corner positions. Taylor has left and right field experience as a role player in Washington. You can then add to that group reserve outfielders Nick Gordon and Trevor Larnach, who have been solid outfielders early in their careers, and Gilberto Celestino at Triple-A, who has the tools to be a good outfielder himself. All listed names except Larnach can provide centerfield defense for the team. If you need more convincing, check out Ted's case for the Minnesota outfield being the best in baseball in 2023 and Theo's discussion on the centerfield depth. I'm not here to make those cases. Instead, I want to make the case that bringing Taylor in to complete an elite outfield defense is a perfect fit for the current roster. Baseball teams, more than teams in almost all other sports, can be built by acquiring the best talent, regardless of fit, given the independence of baseball as a sport. As your uncle or drinking buddy has probably told you at least once, "There's only one ball in the NBA." Baseball doesn't fall victim to that issue. Joey Gallo, for example, was signed this offseason because the front office believed they could get value out of him; roster space be damned. However, not all player acquisitions are based on taking the greatest talent. No team can survive throwing seven left-handed first basemen out into the field, no matter how well they hit the ball. These additions can be need-based complementary, as they depend on the team's current state, altering it to be better. Carlos Correa's signing may fall under the Sign as Much Talent as Possible scheme, but it was also need-based, as it filled a gaping hole at shortstop. The Christian Vazquez signing also falls into the need-based category, as the team lacked a player they felt comfortable relying on for 95 starts at catcher in 2023. Both players are talented but more valuable on a team like the Twins, which had a pressing need at each position. Not all complementary acquisitions are based on need or upgrading at a position, though. Some are more context complementary. Take, for example, the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Big bats and speedy outfielders complement the playing environment in Denver, so finding a player who checks those boxes can be considered a complementary addition because their value to the team goes beyond their true talent. The same idea can apply to personnel already on the team, such as the popular idea early this offseason of finding a left-handed catcher to pair with Ryan Jeffers. Andrelton Simmons is not very useful if there aren't a lot of balls hit in the infield. In that vein, compiling a squad of elite defensive outfielders compliments the current pitching staff quite well. The Twins do not have a groundball pitching staff. Only two pitchers—Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez—qualify as groundball pitchers (greater than 44% groundball percentage, per FanGraphs). Among the 13 pitchers slated to make the Opening Day roster, only five had a fly ball percentage (FB%) lower than average (35%), with Pablo Lopez (33%) being the only starter below 35%. Joe Ryan (54%), Bailey Ober (51%), and Tyler Mahle (48%) each had a sky-high (no pun intended) 2022 FB% in the rotation—higher than the Twin's all-time starting pitcher leader in the statistic, Kevin Slowey (min. 150 IP). Caleb Thielbar (47%) and everybody's favorite fly-ball-giver-upper Emilio Pagan (40%) paced the bullpen in allowing shots into the outfield. The Twins ranked 14th in FB% in 2022 at 37.5%. Extrapolating last year's stats onto Steamer projections for innings thrown in 2023, the pitching staff would have a FB% of 39.3, a rate just below Michael Pineda's career rate with the Twins (39.5%). That 39.3% would rank 9th among teams in 2022. More projected innings from Ober and Mahle would explain the increase, among other minor personnel changes. Will the Twins lead the league in 2023 FB%? Probably not, but they're likely to give up more than the average staff. That fact makes the Taylor trade (and, to a lesser extent, the Gallo signing) more exciting. Elite outfield defense is only beneficial if balls are hit to them at an above-average rate. If the team gives up fly balls at the same rate as Michael Pineda, the outfield will have plenty of balls to track down. Free agent bullpen arms like Matt Wisler (57%) or Matt Moore (39.4%) may even look more appetizing. This newly-constructed outfield helps the Twins as much or more than it would help any team. Although many fans expected the complementary fourth outfielder piece to be a righty with some thump, the Twins zagged to ensure that their outfield defense would be good-to-elite, no matter which of their top 7 outfielders took the field each day. Their fly-ball-happy pitchers will love them for that. Not even raindrops stand a chance. As a bonus bit of fun, can you imagine this zany outfield alignment suggested by Mike Petriello on Twitter featuring Buxton and Taylor roaming the outfield with their elite range and former third baseman Joey Gallo in short right against an extreme-pull lefty? Too bad the Twins have two of the usual suspects playing for them right now. View full article

The AL Central is considered one of the weaker divisions in Major League Baseball, but that doesn't mean the division lacks top-end talent. Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Heading into spring training, I put together an all-star team comprised of the best players at each position in the AL Central. Here's what I came up with. Catcher Winner: Christian Vazquez MIN This position was a fun one to compare. With Yasmani Grandal, Salvador Perez, and newcomers Christian Vazquez and Mike Zunino, it was tough to pick the best overall catcher out of the bunch. Vazquez got the edge over the rest because of his defensive ability. In 2022, Vazquez was among the league's best defensive players, accounting for 11 DRS. In comparison, Grandal had -5, Perez -4, and Zunino -2. At the plate, Grandal and Zunino are coming off down years, so it is hard to call either the best at the position. As for Perez… read on. First Base Winner: Josh Naylor CLE First base is arguably the worst overall position in the AL Central. The position is chock-full with youngsters like Alex Kirilloff, Spencer Torkelson, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Andrew Vaughn, who could be excellent baseball players in the future. However, after a 20-home run season in which he produced 1.8 WAR, the 25-year-old Naylor gets the edge over the rest of the field in 2023. Second Base Winner: Andres Gimenez CLE What a year it was for Andres Gimenez. 7.6 WAR and sixth in the MVP voting. Gimenez made significant strides in his game last year and cemented himself as one of the best second basemen in MLB. Jorge Polanco is the only other noteworthy second baseman in the division. While he is probably a top 10-second baseman in the MLB, he is still notably behind the skillset of Gimenez. Shortstop Winner: Carlos Correa MIN The new $200M man put together another stellar season in 2022, earning himself a hefty contract extension that could span the rest of his career. MLB Network ranked Correa as the second-best shortstop in all the MLB, right behind the Phillies' new addition Trea Turner. Bobby Witt Jr.'s future is bright, but for the moment, the best shortstop in the Central award belongs to Correa. Third Base Winner: Jose Ramirez CLE Third base was the biggest no-brainer of all. Jose Ramirez is among the best players in the league and has been providing top-level talent for Cleveland since 2016. There are some talented third basemen in the Central, but none were even close to Ramirez, a perennial MVP candidate. Left Field Winner: Steven Kwan CLE Steven Kwan had an excellent rookie campaign for the Guardians, producing 5.5 WAR, finishing third in the AL Rookie of the Year race, and winning a Gold Glove. Kwan was a contact machine, drawing two more walks than strikeouts. Andrew Benintendi comes in second place here as the only other noteworthy left fielder. Center Field Winner: Byron Buxton MIN Buxton is one of the best baseball players on the planet when healthy. He has every tool one could hope for in a star player. The only problem is Buxton has had a hell of a time staying healthy. Since he became an everyday player in the MLB in 2016, Buxton has played more than 92 games only once. Despite the minimal playing time, Buxton still has put up better numbers than the rest of the division and was ranked the second-best center fielder by MLB Network. If Buxton was to play 130 games, he could push for an MVP award. Right Field Winner: Max Kepler MIN Right field is another relatively weak position. Kepler gets the edge here over the field. An elite-level defender, who has shown flashes with the bat, Kepler produced 2.1 WAR in what was considered a down year in 2022. Kepler is also a candidate for positive regression at the plate in 2023 with the banning of the shift. Designated Hitter Winner: Salvador Perez KC While Perez doesn't have it defensively behind the plate, he can still swing the bat with the best of them. Perez hit 48 home runs in 2021, and while injuries limited his production in 2022, he still produced 23 home runs, 76 RBIs, and 2.7 WAR. Starting Pitcher Winner: Dylan Cease CHW One could argue for Shane Bieber, but Cease was undoubtedly better in 2022. Cease was unstoppable, producing 6.4 WAR, second in the Cy Young voting, and 22nd in the AL MVP race. Just entering his prime, Cease should only get better in the coming years and terrorize the division for years. Relief Pitcher Winner: Emmanuel Clase CLE Emmanuel Clase is nightmare fuel for opposing hitters. Clase wrapped up 2022 to the tune of 42 saves, a 1.36 ERA, and 2.8 WAR. He was voted MLB Networks' best relief pitcher, so it was hard not to choose him as the best relief pitcher in the AL Central. However, I should also mention another relief pitcher who produced 2.8 WAR in 2022 and has similarly nasty stuff. Jhoan Duran put together quite the rookie year for the Twins and should continue to thrive in his role in the back end of the bullpen. Totals CLE: 5 MIN: 4 CHW: 1 KC: 1 DET: 0 Debate on! Where do you agree? Where do you disagree? Let me know in the comments! View full article