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Every team needs things to go right to succeed throughout a 162-game season. Here are four bold predictions that can help the Twins return to the top of the AL Central. Image courtesy of William Parmeter Many baseball writers will make predictions in the coming weeks as Opening Day continues to creep closer. There is a fine line between what one person views as bold and what another person views as reasonable. Every year, weird things happen that go against logic and previous trends. Here are four predictions about the 2023 season, and I will let you decide on their level of boldness. Jhoan Duran Named to AL All-Star Team Duran was among baseball’s best relief pitchers last season while leading American League relievers in Win Probability Added (WPA). There is always a chance that Duran suffers some kind of sophomore slump, and previous injuries are one of the reasons he moved to a bullpen role. If healthy, it’s hard not to imagine Duran being a weapon for Dusty Baker to utilize in any inning of the Midsummer Classic. Duran has shown the ability to add even more velocity when amped up for an appearance, so one inning in the All-Star Game could be a scary proposition for NL batters. Duran would join a growing list of Twins All-Star relievers, including Taylor Rogers, Glen Perkins, Joe Nathan, Eddie Guardado, Rick Aguilera, and Jeff Reardon. Joey Gallo Hits 30 Home Runs Gallo has hit over 30 home runs in three previous seasons, including 38 home runs as recently as 2021. However, Gallo is coming off his worst big-league season, where he hit .160/.280/.357 (.638) with eight doubles, two triples, and 19 home runs in 126 games. Twins hitting coach David Popkins has been able to adjust the swings of players like Carlos Correa and Nick Gordon. There will always be plenty of swings and misses to Gallo’s offensive profile, but he can hit at an All-Star level. He may never be a 40+ home run hitter like he was in his early 20s, but Gallo is poised for a resurgent season in the middle of the Twins lineup. Joe Ryan Finishes Top-5 for the AL Cy Young Cy Young contenders pack the American League, including Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Shohei Ohtani, and Shane McClanahan. Joe Ryan could join their ranks this season if his improved breaking stuff baffles batters. In his rookie season, Ryan posted a 3.55 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and a 151-to-47 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 147 innings. He has used his fastball over 60% of the time in his big-league career, but he worked on his other pitches this winter, which has him ready to break out. Ryan will have one of the best seasons by a Twins starting pitcher in quite some time, so make sure to enjoy the ride. Byron Buxton Plays in 115 Games Some fans will shout that 115 games are too much for Buxton, while others will be disappointed if that is all he can’t reach the century mark. Buxton’s injury history has been well documented, and it’s one of the reasons the Twins were able to sign him to a team-friendly extension. His lone season with over 100 games was back in 2017 when he played 140 games and earned the Platinum Glove in center field. Since then, Buxton has been a completely different weapon at the plate, and the Twins will attempt to keep him healthy by using him more regularly as a designated hitter. Buxton must be available throughout the year to win the division, and 115 games seem like a reasonable goal. Do you consider these predictions to be bold? What predictions do you have for the 2023 season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Coming into the offseason, the Minnesota Twins established a baseline again at shortstop. With Carlos Correa unlikely to return, they grabbed Kyle Farmer from the Cincinnati Reds. Although he now will rarely play there, his place on the 26-man roster is something to be noticed. Image courtesy of Andrew West/The News-Press / USA TODAY NETWORK Last season, the Twins saw firsthand how fun it is to have a fantastic shortstop. Carlos Correa is one of the best players in Major League Baseball, and while it was an odd route to re-sign him, he now can call Minnesota home for the better part of a decade. At first, that may have been disappointing for Kyle Farmer, who was initially penciled in to play the spot, but he’s going to carve out plenty of run for himself. Rocco Baldelli’s squad struggled mightily at times to score runs a year ago. Much of that lineup returns. Correa returns alongside Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda, and Max Kepler. Some of that group still needs to get healthy, but the bulk of a lineup that routinely was called upon last year remains the same. Yes, Joey Gallo is a high-profile offensive addition, but Farmer also brings a skillset that Minnesota desperately needed. A late-blooming Dodgers prospect, Farmer didn’t debut until his age-26 season in 2017. He played in just 59 games for Los Angeles before heading to Cincinnati, and it wasn’t until 2021 that he surpassed the century mark in a single season. In the past two years, though, Farmer has shown an ability to produce at a level that the fringes of a good roster should be excited about. Farmer is not an average or on-base juggernaut, but he provides enough pop from the middle infield to be something plenty at those positions cannot handle. A career-best 16 home runs happened two seasons ago, and Farmer nearly replicated that last year when he hit 14 for the Reds. It’s not as though he’ll be an integral power threat as a utility guy for Minnesota, but having enough pop at their disposal is something the team would’ve liked more of last year. The Twins also have the benefit of platooning Farmer alongside their own developed utility star. Farmer is a right-handed hitter, whereas Nick Gordon is on the opposite side of the plate. The two can help mask Polanco's initial absence and should be expected to get plenty of run at second base. Last season Farmer mashed southpaws to the tune of a .309/.380/.568 slash line. Given how left-handed that group tends to be, Minnesota has had platoon players in the outfield during recent seasons. Kyle Garlick carved out a role by being able to show right-handed power, and Farmer could benefit from similar usage. Going from Correa to Farmer as the everyday shortstop would have been underwhelming, but some initial plan needed to be hatched. Similar to the Isiah Kiner-Falefa move two offseasons ago, the Twins front office kept working and exceeded even their initial expectations. While Farmer could have been disappointed in losing some playing time or opportunity, he’ll now be put in even more advantageous situations. For a manager that likes to look at matchups, Baldelli should have the most flexibility and depth he has ever had for the Twins. A bench including a regular like Farmer is evidence of that. Minnesota making noise during the regular season and into the postseason will reflect the roster as a whole. View full article

Spring training is quickly coming to a close, leaving the Twins' front office with some final decisions about the Opening Day roster. Here are my updated projection for the 26 players coming north with the team next week. Image courtesy of William Parmeter Last season, the lockout forced MLB to allow teams to begin the year with 28-man rosters. The lockout forced a shortened spring training, and baseball was worried about an increased chance of player injuries. For 2023, teams must narrow their final roster to 26 players. Players listed below with the ** are on the bubble for the final roster spots. Catchers (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers Like many teams, the Twins will employ a two-catcher system behind the plate. Minnesota signed Vazquez to a 3-year, $30 million deal this winter, so it seems likely for him to get a higher percentage of the playing time. In his last three full seasons, Vazquez has averaged over 130 games played, and he's been above average at controlling the running game. Jeffers has shown some pop in his bat this spring, with four of his six hits being for extra bases. Veteran catchers like Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner, and Chance Sisco were non-roster invitees this spring, and one of them will get an opportunity if/when there is an injury. Infielders (5): Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff**, Jose Miranda, Donovan Solano Jorge Polanco is the biggest name not listed among the team's projected Opening Day roster. Derek Falvey told reporters on Sunday that Polanco might not be ready to start the regular season on time. He has lingering soreness in his left knee, an injury that ended his 2022 season. Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano will see time at second base until Polanco is ready to return. Kirilloff is also not guaranteed to break camp with the club, but he has played in minor league games over the weekend. The Twins will likely give him regular rest to start the year, with Gallo and Solano starting games at first base. Top prospects like Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Edouard Julien can add depth to this group when needed. Outfielders (6): Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach**, Michael A. Taylor The Twins focused on adding strong defenders to the roster, with Gallo and Taylor being Gold Glove winners. Buxton slowly worked his way into game action this spring and should be as close to 100% as possible. Larnach wasn't guaranteed an Opening Day spot and entered the picture with Polanco's injury. There was some concern after Gordon suffered an ankle injury earlier in camp, but the injury won't hinder his availability at the season's start. Matt Wallner, the organization's reigning MiLB Player of the Year, is the team's best power prospect, and he will be waiting for a call-up back to the big leagues. Rotation (5): Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan Bailey Ober has been terrific this spring, but the Twins aren't going to utilize a six-man rotation. St. Paul's rotation is set up to be strong, with Ober, Louie Varland, and Simeon Woods Richardson at the top. The front office set up this rotation to have depth when a starter misses time with an injury. Three veteran starting pitchers (Gray, Mahle, and Maeda) are entering a contract year, so they will be eager to prove that previous injuries and age don't factor into their long-term value. The Twins project to have one of the club's best rotations of the last 25 years, but health questions will continue to follow this group throughout the season. Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagan, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran, Jeff Hoffman** Trevor Megill is the most significant change among this group from earlier in the offseason. The Twins optioned him to the minor leagues on Sunday, opening an opportunity for another pitcher. Megill had a rough spring by allowing eight earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Dennis Santana held a 40-man roster spot until the Twins lost him on waivers to the Mets at the end of last week. Minnesota signed Hoffman to a minor league deal at the end of February, and he has an 8-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in spring action. ZiPS projects feel like the Twins' bullpen is top-heavy, which makes sense considering the recent track record of players expected to be on the roster. The Twins used 39 pitchers last season so multiple relievers will make the trip back and forth between Minneapolis and St. Paul. How do you feel about the team's depth at multiple positions? Do you agree that these will be the 26 players coming north with the team? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Will this be the year Byron Buxton shakes off his perpetual injury woes and puts forth something approximating a full season? He and the Twins can hope. In the meantime, the front office knew they needed to be proactive in planning for another year full of lengthy absences. They went above and beyond. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports Projected Starter: Byron Buxton Likely Backup: Michael A. Taylor Depth: Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Gilberto Celestino Prospects: Royce Lewis, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Yasser Mercedes, THE GOOD Since 2019, Buxton ranks sixth among all MLB center fielders in fWAR, which is pretty amazing considering that he's played in roughly half of his team's games (51%) during that span. Even at half-capacity, Buxton is among the most valuable handful of players in baseball at a crucial defensive position. Minnesota's utmost priority is finding a way to keep Buck on the field as much as possible, and they know that. New head trainer Nick Paparesta came aboard this past offseason knowing it would be his primary directive. The Twins are taking it slow this spring with Buxton, who has yet to appear in an exhibition game and may see very little action on-field until Opening Day despite being ostensibly healthy. The Twins know how much Buxton means to their lineup. And while his bat is a game-changer, they also know that a big portion of his peak value derives from top-tier defense in center field. Even if he's lost a touch of speed and (tried to) cut back on hazardous risk-taking, Buxton remains one of the rangiest and overall outstanding defenders in the game when he's out there. He takes away runs. Lots of them. Add that to all of the runs he's creating with his elite power and you've got the recipe for one of the most impactful players in baseball. The Twins need to balance keeping him on the field as much as possible with adequately protecting his body and maximizing his chances of helping the team all season. This might mean adopting a usage model with built-in days for DH and rest. It's a luxury the club can more easily afford thanks to one of their most underrated offseason moves: the acquisition of Taylor from Kansas City. Taylor is the closest thing you'll find to Buxton's equal defensively in center. He's a lightning-quick playmaker with great instincts and a big arm. Another human highlight reel covering the vastest expanse of the baseball field. As Nash Walker pointed out, Taylor leads all MLB outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved since the 2020 season. Buxton ranks third on that list. Sandwiched between them? Gallo, whom the Twins also insist they're factoring in as CF depth even though he's played just one game there since 2019. Between those three, the Twins can be fairly confident they're fielding a great glove in center almost every night, setting the tone for what could be the best defensive outfield in the majors. This experienced and proven depth will hopefully prevent the Twins from needing to press players like Gordon and Celestino, who combined to make 98 starts in center field last year, beyond their means. Those two are now padding a robust depth chart, further bolstered by prospects like Lewis and Austin Martin who might eventually profile best in center. THE BAD The looming downside in center field, as it ever was: Byron Buxton's likelihood of missing significant time. Last year seemed to hammer home the inevitability of attrition for Buxton, who managed to make his first All-Star team while leading the team to a strong start before, once again, succumbing to multiple injuries that kept him off the field in September. Is the knee issue that plagued his 2022 season behind him? For that matter, can we count on his right hip to hold up after sustaining serious strains in back-to-back years? Outside of those carryover concerns ... Is there any feasible preventative measure that can stymy the crimson tide of injuries relentlessly keeping Buxton off the field? These are the questions no one likes to ask, and Byron certainly doesn't like to answer. Unfortunately, they overwhelmingly control the team's fate. That's always going to be true. No one else can replicate or replace what a semi-healthy Buxton brings to the table. What the Twins did do this offseason is work to ensure the table won't be bare without him present. THE BOTTOM LINE Last year, when analyzing the center field position for the Twins ahead of the season, I concluded: "Their immediate depth behind Buxton is questionable, which is quite troubling all things considered." Questionable was being kind. Buxton ended up missing a ton of time – unfortunate but not unexpected – and the ill-prepared Twins were forced to give more than two-thirds of their center field starts to: Celestino, Gordon, Mark Contreras, Jake Cave, and one sadly unforgettable appearance from Lewis. This has been a continuing trend for the Twins over the years, and a costly one. All the way back in spring training of 2017, while covering camp in Fort Myers, I wrote an article underlining the urgency of strong contingency plans for Buxton. Even then, when he was 23 and less than two years into his career, the writing was on the wall. He was never going to dial back the aggressive style that helps make him special. "I can’t really be worrying about getting hurt out here," Buxton told me. "I'm focused on being myself between those lines instead of trying to be somebody I'm not." His top backup that season was Zack Granite. In many years since, we've seen plenty of other flawed stopgaps in center, but never a player truly capable of substantially lessening Buxton's void. At long last, the front office seems to have learned its lesson. Buxton's top backup is now a defensive whiz who's started 262 MLB games in center field over the past two seasons, and won a Gold Glove there in 2021. (That's in addition to Gallo, Gordon, Celestino, and the multitude of CF-capable prospects at all levels of the system.) Michael A. Taylor is a joy to behold in center. Here's hoping we see very little of him there in 2023. Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field View full article

Defying expectations, Max Kepler is back. It appears he'll be Minnesota's Opening Day starter in right field for a seventh consecutive season. Will this be his Target Field swan song, or his triumphant reawakening? Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports Projected Starter: Max Kepler Likely Backup: Joey Gallo Depth: Michael A. Taylor, Trevor Larnach, Kyle Garlick Prospects: Matt Wallner, Jose Rodriguez, Kala'i Rosario THE GOOD Even during a 2022 season that rated as the worst of his career, and had him somberly reflecting on whether he picked the right sport, Kepler's underlying skill and baseball prowess were easy to see. As usual, he roamed right field with excellence, ranging all over to track down fly balls and line drives most peers cannot reach. The standard for RF, at the bottom end of the defensive spectrum, gives Kepler a big advantage as a stellar athlete with a glove that could play in center. He ranked fifth among MLB right fielders in Defensive Runs Saved with 10, and was in the 97th percentile for Outs Above Average. FanGraphs pegged him as the second-most valuable defender at the position, behind Arizona's Daulton Varsho. Kepler's fielding is verifiably elite. His bat has of course been a different story, but you wouldn't know it from looking at the raw batted ball metrics. Kepler's Statcast sliders are a sea of red, indicating high-end rankings on measurements like exit velocity, expected batting average, chase rate, and beyond. Kepler has a very good plate approach and he routinely makes quality contact. Yet, this all manifested last year in a .227/.318/.348 slash line, which – even in a depressed offensive environment – compared quite poorly against the average AL right fielder (244/.310/.407). Analysis shows that to a large degree, Kepler creates his own bad luck with a hitting profile so predictable that opposing pitchers and defenses have learned to expertly suppress it. That said, last year his level of bad luck was off the charts. The outfielder's fortunes seem naturally likely to rebound, and the new shift limitations figure to further aid his improvement. This dynamic gave the Twins hope that another team might fancy Kepler as a buy-low candidate worth ponying up for. Alas, they didn't get an offer that moved them, so the front office held on, and will hope to cash in on their own bounce-back threat, whose return alongside the Gallo signing creates an abundant level of corner outfield depth. Taking Kepler's history here out of the equation, I think that if the Twins were to trade for a player sharing Kepler's attributes – an underperforming great athlete in his prime with one more year under contract followed by team options – most fans would see it as a smart gamble. THE BAD Among the top five players we have listed on the RF depth chart atop this article, here are their final OPS+ figures from the 2022 season: Kepler: 93 Gallo: 79 Taylor: 90 Larnach: 104 Garlick: 104 Only two modestly above-average hitters in the bunch, and they both missed most of the season due to injury. As helpful as Kepler's glove is in the outfield, his lack of offense has made him a limiting factor in the lineup. The same could potentially be true of Gallo or Taylor if they're pushed into duty. With so many questions elsewhere, the Twins could really use a steady and reliable producer at this bat-driven position. Since Kepler's career year in 2019, the Twins have been below-average in wOBA from right fielders every year, ranking 23rd in both of the past two. If Kepler can't snap that trend, the team is now in a realistic position to move on. If and when that time comes, Gallo or Taylor or Larnach might not be next in line. Wallner is their reigning Minor League Player of the Year and he got a taste of the majors last September. With decent outfield range and maybe the best arm in the system, Wallner is built for right field. Bringing lots of strikeouts and lots of power, the organization's No. 11 prospect contrasts sharply from Kepler stylistically, but it's not hard to envision him offering equal value (at a small fraction of the cost) as soon as this year. That is: if Wallner can break the mold of K-prone sluggers who mash in the minors but struggle to break through in the majors. The 25-year-old's development this season will have a decisive influence on the plan for this position going forward. THE BOTTOM LINE A changing of the guard is afoot in right field for the Twins. Kepler is one of their longest-tenured players, but the nearing end of this player-team relationship feels apparent from a number of different perspectives. He's entering his final guaranteed year under contract, was openly the subject of trade rumors all winter, and is now being pressed by several up-and-coming prospects as his game stagnates. For the time being, Kepler's still here. Though down and out, he's a skilled and athletic player coming off the unluckiest season of his career, with a few things due to finally break in his favor. If he doesn't turn it around, the Twins have a wealth of other current and future options. If he does, it could introduce create an interesting set of decisions for the front office. For as long as he's been around, Kepler is still only 30 and he has a 2024 team option for $10 million. Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field Position Analysis: Center Field View full article

Bailey Ober and Max Kepler have been two of the best Minnesota Twins players down in spring training so far. They both stayed hot this afternoon against the Pirates. Also featured in today's video are Willi Castro, Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, some highlights from the other split squad game against the Rays and more. View full video

The Twins acquired Joey Gallo during the offseason, in part, because his defensive versatility could provide some much-needed depth with upside in a variety of injury scenarios. If everyone is healthy (ha!) Gallo is slated to be the regular in left field, where he presents a boom-or-bust proposition. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck and Jeffrey Becker, USA Today Sports Projected Starter: Joey Gallo Likely Backup: Nick Gordon Depth: Michael A. Taylor, Trevor Larnach, Gilberto Celestino Prospects: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Yasser Mercedes, Misael Urbina THE GOOD In many ways, Gallo presents the ideal corner outfield specimen. He's surprisingly fast for his build, bringing the range of a low-end center fielder to left or right (not unlike Max Kepler). He's got an absolute cannon arm, the mere threat of which helps to limit the opposing run game. Most years, he also brings all the slugging prowess you could ask for in a corner bat. In 2021, Gallo launched 38 homers and led the league in walks on the way to an OPS that was 21% above average – despite batting just .199 and also leading the league in strikeouts. That's always been Gallo's game: boom or bust, personified. His ability to bring plenty of boom made him a fairly consistent asset over a five-year span from 2017 through 2021, notching two All-Star appearances and averaging more than 3 fWAR per season. Gallo is a big, strong dude with a ferocious swing. His exit velocities and hard-hit rates consistently rank near the highest percentiles. With this signing, the Twins are clearly hoping to add a game-breaking factor to their offense that was amiss last year when Byron Buxton wasn't on the field. Even if he's the primary starter in left field, as planned in a best-case scenario, Gallo still figures to spend time at other outfield positions and at first base. This will open up LF at-bats against right-handers for Gordon and Larnach, who both probably profile best at this position. Against left-handers, Taylor brings an elite glove and capable bat. Kyle Garlick is also around, and he's a nice depth piece to have on hand for platooning purposes. Don't sleep on Austin Martin to emerge as an option here at some point if he can get healthy. THE BAD Minnesota's depth at the outfield corners is tough to knock. The front office added Gallo on top of what was already a strength. He brings real upside to the lineup if he's consistently playing in left alongside the likes of Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, and others. A more likely scenario has the defensively flexible Gallo frequently backfilling at other positions, which would allow the Twins to showcase their multitude of quality options in left field. Gordon, Larnach, and Taylor would be clear starters on a lot of teams. So, what's not to like? The concern here, I suppose, is the specter of Minnesota sticking with Gallo too long in the event he simply doesn't have it anymore. His 2022 season points toward such a probability; he batted .160 with a 79 OPS+ and 40% K-rate. The slugger struggled both before and after a midseason trade from Yankees to Dodgers. He was barely a replacement-level player. Gallo and the Twins are both banking on a rebound, which is why the two sides agreed to a one-year, $11 million contract. His contract and MLB track record will rightfully earn him some length of leash, and it can be difficult to gauge how much slumping is TOO much for a guy who batted .199 during an All-Star season two years ago. He's still under 30, entering a refreshing change of scenery in Minnesota, and good players have bounced back from worse. At the same time, for boom-or-bust types like Gallo, starting to fall behind major-league pitchers – even a little bit – is anathema. The appeal of waiting out those extended "bust" periods starts to fade quickly when the "booms" are too far and few between. (Just ask Miguel Sanó, still looking for a job at the same age as Gallo.) There's hope that cutting down his K's slightly and benefiting from the shift could get Gallo's batting average back up into an acceptable range (by his standard). But without an obvious injury to blame for last year's drop-off, and with teams already exploring ways to try and stifle him under the new rules, it's not the most favorable of bets. THE BOTTOM LINE Gordon can play several defensive positions. Left field might be the only one where he's truly an asset. It's also where Larnach's glove profiles best. So long as Kepler remains entrenched in right field, these two – along with Matt Wallner, and a handful of defensively ambiguous prospects nearing readiness – must look to left field as one of their best paths to MLB playing time. (Sans DH, which we'll break down soon.) The Gallo acquisition throws another barrier in the way for this group. But given the uncertainties surrounding most of these players and prospects, it's not a bad gamble. "Too much depth" is a problem the Twins, and any team, would love to have. Should Gallo rebound in left field while guys like Buxton, Kirilloff, and Kepler stay healthy and productive enough to keep him from being needed frequently elsewhere, they may find themselves with that happy problem. What a thought. Nothing wrong with dreaming big, so long as you're responsibly planning real-world contingencies. The Twins have plenty in left field. And as we'll see in then coming days, they have them across the outfield. Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop View full article

With defense being more crucial than ever after the changes to the shift rules, the Twins are more positioned to benefit than any other team in baseball. Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports Neither is inherently evil, whether it's the pitch clock or your politics. The application of both is where it can get ugly quickly, and things may start to get a little awkward at family gatherings, and yes, I'm still talking about the pitch clock. Love it or hate it, the new rules are here for 2023, and the Twins have built a team that can take advantage of the new era of baseball. With the shift changes, the pick-off rules, bigger bases, and the fact that the full season for an MLB player is roughly 150 games, the Twins used these facts to help coordinate roster moves. The Twins offseason was a roller coaster ride for shmucks like me trying to figure out what was going on with this team. Now that the dust has settled, the picture is more visible. The front office has constructed a team with elite defense and some left-handed bats that can benefit from an open right side for the first time in their careers. Defensively, teams with elite athletes that can cover ground and make superstar plays, rather than having a spray chart in their back pocket telling them where to play to create outs, will benefit the most. Athletes will be back making more outs, not data points. Having an elite defensive shortstop becomes way more attractive now that there will be a premium on being able to range to the left and right and make big-time throws. Now that shortstops can't swing to the other side of second base, we will see Carlos Correa (aka C4) ranging to his left and making that spin throw on the right side of second base a couple of times this year. I'm excited to see shortstops limited in their shifting ability and see some of the most impressive athletes in the world be able to show it off. The Twins get to be, arguably, the biggest beneficiary. The Twins also brought in Joey Gallo, who we have seen with a wider stance, driving the ball to all fields early in spring. Even this tiny sample size is encouraging. With no shift and pitchers not having as much incentive to throw the cutter inside because there is no iron curtain on the right side, we could see Gallo finally flourish. With a simplified Gallo approach, fans may see a fun uptick from your dad's least favorite player (trademark pending). Joey Gallo also fits the mold of the elite defenders that the team has placed a high value on; Michael A Taylor and the already-established Kepler/Buxton outfield combo may be worthy of a Soul Patrol-level nickname. The shift doesn't impact the outfield as much, but it's worth noting that the Twins attacked the defensive side of this team with the thought of improving their offense too, or the banned shift may provide that offensive uptick on its own. Every team in the league has abandoned the idea of a guy playing 162 games. (In 2022, only Atlanta first baseman Matt Olson and shortstop Dansby Swanson played in all 162 games.) The depth and positional flexibility will make Baldelli's job pretty simple (that thought may get the old-timers to sleep at night). The Twins have solid defenders that can play all over. Farmer, Gordon, Solano, Gallo, Kirilloff, Miranda, and Taylor (fans will see him and Buxton in the same outfield) can all play multiple positions. So much tinkering can be done with this lineup and not lose the edge created defensively. There are quality options when a player gets a day off due to injuries, rest, or just putting the best nine out there on a given day. The Twins aren't a finished product as it stands right now. More moves may be coming, but the Minnesota Twins will defend as well as anybody in the league as a unit. Great defense in a pitcher-friendly ballpark has the potential to be a phenomenal winning formula. It's getting to be time for the rubber to meet the road. I'm excited to start seeing the payoff of all the moves and top-tier defense returning in the MLB. There is no doubt in my mind that Twins management took the new rules into account when building an elite defensive ball club for 2023. Regarding the rule changes, you can see the glass half empty or half full, but we should know by now that the Twins front office sees a glass that was made too big. They dealt with reality and facts and used that logic to create a competitive product for 2023. Go, Twins! View full article

I visited the future, and you won't believe what I saw! Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Jeff Hanisch, Jordan Johnson – USA Today Sports After reading one article on quantum physics, I decided I was prepared to build the first-ever functional time machine. I should have waited and watched how the 2023 Minnesota Twins season played out, but I just had to know now! I worked tirelessly constructing a device that could vault me to October to get a peak at how the season shook out. What I found may surprise some, so without further ado, here are five headlines from the Minnesota Twins 2023 season. Joey Gallo Receives MVP Consideration One of the more highly criticized moves of the offseason was the Twins signing Joey Gallo to a one-year contract. Despite being a two-time all-star for the Texas Rangers in 2019 and 2021, Gallo's career .199 batting average has turned off many of the more "traditional" style Twins fans. However, I am here to tell you that in 2023 Joey Gallo will exceed all expectations and find himself receiving MVP votes at the end of the season. With the new limitations of shifts, Gallo's batting average climbs to .234, and he continues to draw walks at a clip higher than 90% of the league-leading to a .398 OBP. Gallo also belts 38 home runs which are ... second most on the team? Buxton Hammers 40 Bombs Byron Buxton's health has been his Achilles heel throughout his career, playing in more than 92 games only once. However, Buxton's fortune changes in 2023, as he appears in 126 games for the Twins. Even though only 85 of those games are in center field, Buxton has a massive impact on the club, contributing 8.4 WAR. Buxton improves his 97th percentile rank in average exit velocity in 2022, bumping up to the 99th in 2023. Buxton remains one of the most elite power hitters in the game, belting 41 home runs. Pablo López Flashes Ace Potential When the Minnesota Twins acquired López for Luis Arraez in a trade with the Miami Marlins, the thought was that López would best fit the rotation as a number two or three pitcher. Throughout the offseason, he worked on making adjustments to his pitches. He reshaped his slider to become more of a sweeper and worked on his cutter. Both these pitches work very well in 2023 and accompany his elite changeup nicely. His new pitch mix eventually leads López to posting a 12-4 record with a 3.24 ERA. I'm sure this news is music to Twins' fans' ears, but the following headline may be a bit more controversial. Twins Go All in on Gallen at the Deadline When the Minnesota Twins enter the trade deadline in first place in the AL Central for a second straight year, they have to choose an aggressive push, similar to last year, or mainly standing still as they did in 2019. This time, the Twins push every last chip in the middle of the table in pursuit of a championship. On July 31st, they acquire Zac Gallen from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Brooks Lee and Bailey Ober. The Twins use the depth they've built in the rotation and in the infield to acquire the ace they have been waiting for. Gallen gives the Twins a powerful arm they can lean on throughout the playoff push, plus team control through 2025. A Star is Born While the Twins' injury situation in 2023 is much less drastic than in 2022, they still experience some bumps and bruises. This causes prospect Edouard Julien to be called up to the major league club as an extra utility man. Julien continues to display a high-level OBP skill while adding extra power to his profile. He has a stellar campaign and comes in third place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Gunnar Henderson of the Oriels and Oscar Colas of the White Sox. Unfortunately, due to my lack of knowledge and experience, my time machine only brought me to October 1st, so I could not see how the Twins fared in the playoffs. I can tell you they exceeded regular-season expectations, going 94-68, winning the American League Central, and securing the number three seed in the AL behind the Astros and Yankees. One thing is sure; I am very excited to watch the 2023 Minnesota Twins! What are your bold predictions for 2023? Let me know below! Go, Twins! View full article

No team can have a perfect roster heading into the season. For the Twins, there are weak spots on the roster, but there is hope for some of those positions. Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports In recent weeks, there has been a lot of analysis of team and player projections here at Twins Daily. Not all of these models are perfect, but it gives fans a sense of reasonable expectations for each player and the team. Some players exceed their expected performance every year, and others struggle to meet expectations. Here are the weakest positions on the Twins roster and how they may impact the club in 2023. 3. Right Field- Projected WAR: 2.7 Max Kepler's name was in the rumor mill for most of the winter, but the Twins seemingly didn't get an offer they liked, so he's set to be an everyday player. There's no question that Kepler is one of baseball's best defensive right-fielders. Last season, Kepler hit .227/.318/.348 (.666) with 18 doubles and nine home runs. Minnesota has other options in right field if the Twins need to use Kepler in more of a platoon role, including Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. It's an important season for Kepler because the Twins have a $10 million team option for 2024. He'd need to outperform his projections for the team not to buy out his contract for $1 million. Reason for Optimism: There is some optimism that Kepler will benefit from the limits on defensive shifts. He has already picked up a few hits this spring that might have been outs if defenders were allowed to have more exaggerated shifts. This spring, he has already discussed how he won't need to overthink in the batter's box with three infielders on one side of second base. Reports also have him in a good mindset after spending the offseason overseas to mentally reset himself while recovering from a toe fracture. 2. Left Field- Projected WAR: 2.1 Left field ranks close to the top for the Twins in early season projections because Joey Gallo is coming off his worst professional season. In 126 games, he posted a 79 OPS+ with 163 strikeouts. If Gallo can't improve, the Twins have depth in left field with players like Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Out of that trio, only Gordon projects to make the Opening Day roster. Larnach and Wallner will head to Triple-A and need to hit their way back to the big leagues. Other top prospects like Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are options to take over a corner outfield spot later in the season. Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Gallo has a bounce-back season and can be closer to the All-Star level player he was in the past. FanGraphs projects his OPS to increase by 93 points, which would still be lower than his career mark (.794 OPS). Left field is the easiest position for the Twins players to exceed their expected performance, and it is the position I am least worried about on this list. 1. First Base- Projected WAR: 1.9 FanGraphs recently ranked the weakest positions on every contending team, and first base came out as the low spot on the Twins. Alex Kirilloff is a question mark at first base since he has averaged just over 50 games in the last two seasons. Projection systems won't help Kirilloff because he has tried to play through his wrist injury, and his on-field performance has suffered. The Twins won't rely solely on Kirilloff at first base. Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Jose Miranda, and Donovan Solano can all play first base if Kirilloff is forced to miss time again in 2023. Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Kirilloff's surgery to shorten his ulnar bone will put him back on track to where he was as a top prospect. Fans have seen flashes of him being an elite hitter, but his wrist injury saps power from his swing. If this most recent wrist surgery is a long-term solution to his wrist woes, he can be one of the club's best overall hitters. Luckily, all the Twins' weakest positions are in corner spots which can be easier to address during the season. As the trade deadline approaches, first basemen and corner outfielders are usually easier to acquire and have lower acquisition costs. The Twins also have multiple top prospects close to the big leagues that can step into an everyday role if the club feels like they are ready. Do you agree with these rankings? Is there a reason for optimism at each of the positions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Who's on first? This year, the question shapes up as more of an existential dilemma for the Twins than comedic riff. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Projected Starter: Alex Kirilloff Likely Backup: Joey Gallo Depth: Donovan Solano, José Miranda, Tyler White Prospects: Edouard Julien, Aaron Sabato THE GOOD In an ideal scenario, the Twins would be regularly rotating Kirilloff, Miranda and Solano at first base this year, giving the team a pair of young hitting stars along with a veteran line drive machine, and the ability to optimize against any pitching matchup. Of course, as the strong side of the platoon mix and highest-upside hitter of the bunch, Kirilloff holds the key to that appealing scenario. He's also the biggest question mark on the team in terms of health. But if his second wrist surgery proves effective, as he and the team hope, the 25-year-old has the ability to provide ideal production at first base: mashing line drives all over the field, powering the middle of the lineup, producing runs consistently. We've seen these propensities on display in the majors before, albeit in brief spurts interrupted by recurring wrist problems that completely sabotaged Kirilloff's majestic swing. Getting that swing back on track would be a game-changing development for the Twins. But it's one they've made themselves less dependent on with the additions of Gallo and Solano. These two could form a solid platoon in Kirilloff's absence. Even in a very rough 2022 campaign, Gallo held his own against righties, hitting 17 home runs with an OPS+ of 96; in his career he has an .804 OPS versus RHP. Meanwhile, Solano is a reputed lefty masher, having batted above .300 against them in four straight seasons. Both are considered solid defenders at first. Ultimately, if Kirilloff can't go, the eventuality may well be Miranda as primary first baseman. His defense at third was already questionable before a shoulder injury this spring set him back. It feels like more a matter of when, not if, Miranda will move to first, and depending on how things play out with Kirilloff, Gallo, and Solano, the Twins could be motivated to accelerate that timeline. Not the worst thing in the world. Miranda profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat befitting the first baseman assignment. But it could have negative ripple effects. THE BAD As amazing as it would be to see Kirilloff's swing back in its prime form over a sustained period, that feels like a difficult thing to count on, at least in the short term. To my knowledge, he has yet to even take live BP this spring, much less get into a game, although he's been working in the cages. Phil Miller had an update on Kirilloff in the Star Tribune over the weekend, and it contained some mixed messages. Said Kirilloff: "I still feel it every once in a while, but it's not painful." The "it" in that sentence looms large for a player whose wrist issues have made it impossible for him to swing the way he wants to in the past two seasons. Said Derek Falvey: "He's on track. The plan is, if he's healthy at the end of camp, he's competing for a spot." If he's on track, then wouldn't the plan be for him to firmly make the team if healthy? We're not talking about some unproven minor-leaguer here. This is Alex Kirilloff. It seems ridiculous to be dissecting quotes like this but given the vital importance of AK to this club's outlook, and the dearth of information we've gotten so far this spring, we're left with little choice. Taking all the comments at face value, I'm going to assume Kirilloff is on the unlikely side of being on the Opening Day roster, though I'd love to be wrong. The options behind him are potentially quite compelling, but fraught with downside. Gallo was a star player in 2021, but he was terrible last year, and has played only one game at first base since 2018. Solano has been a consistently solid hitter, but he's 35, and had played zero big-league innings at first prior to last year. Shifting Miranda across the diamond is a decent fallback, but his defense at first base pretty rough as a rookie, and this would also mean needing to find another bat to replace him at third base. A more inviting proposition if it's an ascendent top prospect like Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis than Kyle Farmer. Speaking of prospects, the Twins are conspicuously light at this position. It'd be hard to say they have no first base prospects, because in theory they have quite a few top prospects who could end up there – it's at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, after all. But, notably, none of our top 20 from this year currently play there in any sort of regular capacity. The most prototypical first base slugger in the system is probably Sabato, whom the Twins drafted in the first round out of college in 2020 with hopes he'd rise fast as an impact bat. Things haven't gone exactly to plan, with Sabato's extreme contact struggles negating the value of his standout power and patience, but he's been playing a lot in big-league camp this year and could be an immediate factor at age 24 if he takes a step forward in the high minors this year. THE BOTTOM LINE Rocco Baldelli has indicated that he "expects first base to be a revolving door similar to designated hitter," as Dan Hayes of The Athletic put it. "We don’t have a first baseman,” the manager said earlier this spring. “We have several guys that are going to play first base. We don’t need one guy that’s going to play first base.” They certainly have options, albeit ones with limited experience. (Nick Gordon, owner of zero innings of first base experience at any level, was evidently mentioned as a possibility in the same discussion.) Then again, if Luis Arraez's emergence as an All-Star and Gold Glove finalist at first taught us anything, it's that experience is no prerequisite. Tell em Wash. The upside of this position feels capped without a healthy and thriving Kirilloff (in which case it's sky-high), but the Twins have built in enough floor to maintain a relatively high floor if things go amiss once again with their former number one prospect. View full article

Highlights from the Minnesota Twins spring training split squad action Sunday. Jose Miranda hit a pair of home runs in one game while Joey Gallo, Max Kepler and prospect Kala'i Rosario homered in the other. Also included are some highlights of Pablo López, Tyler Mahle, Carlos Correa, Jose Salas and much more. View full video

FORT MYERS - Kenta's back! Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The Twins faced an early split-squad set of games on Saturday afternoon to kick off the start of their 2023 Grapefruit League season. In the home game, Kenta Maeda returned to the mound after missing the 2022 season following Tommy John surgery and pitched a scoreless first inning. Lineup The Twins only had two anticipated regular position players in their home lineup: Joey Gallo led off and Max Kepler batted cleanup. However, they also had three other players practically guaranteed (health permitting, knock on wood) to make the 26-man roster: Ryan Jeffers at catcher, Kyle Farmer at shortstop and Michael A Taylor patrolled center field. The lineup also included Twins’ top prospects Edouard Julien (Twins Daily’s #5 prospect) and Brooks Lee (Twins Daily’s #1 prospect), who joined the lineup late when catcher Christian Vazquez was pulled from the lineup due to illness. Maeda’s Return But the most anticipated Twins player was Maeda. Twins fans had hoped to see him last September, perhaps in a relief role. But as team injuries and the season jointly spun out of control, all parties decided to wait until this spring for his return. Maeda was greeted rudely by Rays outfield prospect Josh Lowe with a double into the gap that went off of Joey Gallo’s glove. The good news? It was on a 90.8 mph fastball by Maeda showing velocity already near to what he threw pre-surgery. Lowe was slo unable to advance from second base, as Maeda escaped the inning on two ground balls and a strikeout, throwing 13 pitches, ten for strikes. That was the end of his day, as planned. "He was happy with his stuff", Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said after the game. "I was happy with his stuff. [Twins pitching coach] Pete [Maki] was happy with his stuff. So a very successful day and one we've been waiting a very long time for," The Shift Ban Both regulars in the lineup for the Twins, Gallo and Kepler, could be positively impacted by MLB’s limitation of “the shift” this year. In the first inning, we got a taste of what we might see. It’s not totally clear the results would have been any different, but both plays likely were completed differently than they would have been. The new limitation has two parts that could affect left-handed hitters. First, the shortstop can no longer play on the other side (the first base side) of second base. Second, second baseman can no longer play in short right field. He must remain on the infield dirt. For left-handed pull-hitters, the theory is this could mean more ground balls scooting through the right side of the infield for hits. Alas, that was not the case for Kepler, whose ground ball was fielded by the second baseman to the right of the bag and neatly flipped to the shortstop for a double-play to end the inning. It likely would have been fielded by the shortstop last year, but the double play might not have been as automatic. On the other hand, Gallo hit a soft line drive to right field over the first baseman’s head for a single. It’s not clear if that result would have been any different had the second baseman been deeper and on the grass – he would have had to range far to his left to get there – but it’s possible. It certainly seem like it would have been fielded by him instead of by the right-fielder. The next inning, we saw another impact of the new rule. Rays second baseman Vidal Brujan lined up too far over to the left side of the infield. It was called by the umpire, and as a result, the batter – Farmer – was awarded a ball. But with the umpires, players and coaches still working out the communication of the call, it was originally thought that a balk had been called, which would have scored Gallo from third base. After a discussion at home plate with the umpire, he returned to third base and was driven home on a sacrifice fly. Facing Southpaws We also got a taste of what we might see when the Twins face left-handed pitching this year. With the exception of Nick Gordon, the Twins entire “bench” is right-handed, and it sounds like Rocco intends to play matchups with them frequently, including in the starting lineup. It certainly worked on Saturday. The bottom of the lineup featured two non-roster invitees signed as minor league free agents. Switch-hitter Willi Castro is a 25-year-old infielder from the Tigers organization who started at third base. Tyler White, a 32-year-old, who has spent the last couple years in Triple-A, started at first base. But they looked like All-stars against Rays left-handed reliever Josh Fleming. Castro tripled to deep center and White homered. It blew the game open soon after it started, contributing to a 6-0 lead after just two innings. The Other Game Meanwhile, the Twins had another game going on in Sarasota vs the Orioles, with Louie Varland starting. Varland, Twins Daily's #9 prospect, threw two scoreless innings, but things turned sour in the second half of the game and the Twins fell 10-5. Mark Contreras and prospect Kala'i Rosario each homered for the Twins. Nick Gordon started the game with a triple and scored on a sacrifice fly off the bat of Austin Martin. It was interesting to note that the Twins had Gordon start at shortstop with Martin at second base. Martin (Twins Daily's #10 prospect) was hit by a pitch in his next plate appearance, but he must have been OK because he stole second base on the next pitch. Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner (Twins Daily's #11 prospect) went a combined 0-for-5 with a walk and five strikeouts. Aaron Sabato walked three times, and one of the newest Twins prospects, Jose Salas (Twins Daily's #8 prospect) walked twice. Randy Dobnak gave up one run despite two hits and two walks in his two innings of work. For the Orioles, Terrin Vavra - the youngest son of former Twins hitting coach and bench coach Joe Vavra - went 2-for-3 with a ground-rule double and a long home run. Curtis Terry, who spent last spring with the Twins, hit a three-run homer off of Brock Stewart. One of Baltimore's top prospects, Heston Kjerstad hit two home runs. Chris Vallimont gave up one run over two innings. Sauk Rapids native Anthony Bemboom started behind the plate for the O's and went 0-for-2. Next Up The team makes a long trek up to Clearwater to play the Phillies on Sunday. Joe Ryan will be starting for the Twins. The plan is for Jose Miranda to make the trip and hit third as the designated hitter. Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee should be in the lineup again, too. View full article