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  1. Coming into the 2023 season, the American League Central was a clear two-team race between the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Guardians. In their preseason odds, Fangraphs had the Twins as the division favorites with a 38.7% chance of winning the division with the Guardians as a close second with a 33.9% chance, and the Chicago White Sox as the third most likely. We’re more than one quarter of the way through the season and the landscape of the American League Central has changed. While the Minnesota Twins have played about how well everyone projected they would (an 84-win pace) the rest of the division has been turned on its head. First of all, the Chicago White Sox have completely taken themselves out of the playoff picture. The White Sox are 11 games below .500, and that’s after a weekend sweep of the lowly Kansas City Royals. Additionally, the presumed division-favorite Cleveland Guardians have significantly underperformed. After Monday's games, the Cleveland Guardians stand at 21-26 with a -31 run differential and being freshly swept by the New York Mets. While the Guardians have suffered mostly because of their bats (they own a league-worst wRC+ of 77), they only have a league-average starting rotation and their all-world closer Emmanuel Clase leads the league in blown saves. Enter the Detroit Tigers. Coming out of the weekend, the second place team in the American League Central is the team that was originally projected to have the worst record in the division. The Detroit Tigers currently lead the Guardians by a game in the Central, and are just two and a half games back of the Minnesota Twins for the division lead. Similar to the Guardians, the Detroit Tigers have been terrible at the plate ranking just above Cleveland with a wRC+ of 82. On the pitching side, though, the Tigers have made real strides this year, ranking 12th in baseball in wOBA after finishing 26th in the same metric in 2022. A big reason for that has been Eduardo Rodriguez, who owns a 2.06 ERA, fourth best in the American League. Additionally, the return of the rising-star pitchers, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning, appear to be on the horizon. What the Tigers really need in order to solidify themselves as the main competitor to the Minnesota Twins in the American League Central is for their star batting prospects, Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, to start meeting the lofty expectations that were set out for them and make the Detroit lineup a real threat. One area that the Detroit Tigers have an advantage over the Cleveland Guardians is in their potential for making mid-season additions. The Cleveland Guardians have repeatedly shown that they are not willing to spend money, and not likely to make much noise at the trade deadline. The Detroit Tigers, however, have shown that when they have a team with the potential to compete, they will make the necessary moves to put themselves in a position to do just that. The Twins don’t have much of a threat at all when it comes to the competition in the American League Central, but it will be interesting to see whether it’s the Cleveland Guardians who hit their stride and become the threat that we all expected them to be, or if it’s the Detroit Tigers who turn out to be the main competitor to the Minnesota Twins in 2023.
  2. We are less than two weeks away from the 2022 Major League Baseball regular season. The free agent frenzy was every bit the excitement we had hoped for following the lockout and teams are largely complete at this point. The American League Central Division had just one Postseason participant, but the hope would be for two with the field expanding to 12 teams. The Chicago White Sox return as the division winners and will look to carry that crown for a second season. While there’s no juggernaut here, it should be expected that there’s no cellar dweller either. Here’s how I see the division shaking out with PECOTA projections in parentheses. Chicago White Sox 89-73 (91-71) Chicago really didn’t do a whole lot this winter, but they also really didn’t need to. Having Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez for a full season will represent the greatest benefit they could gain from the offseason. Kendall Graveman makes an already good bullpen better, and Joe Kelly only enhances that. They should still have a very strong lineup, and the hope would be continued dominance from the rotation. There’s no doubt that they are the favorites here. Minnesota Twins 85-77 (86-76) If there’s a team that could go up or down more than almost any other in baseball it could be Minnesota. Byron Buxton is a superstar, and now he has a partner in Carlos Correa. How much resurgence could Gary Sanchez or Gio Ursehla find in their new home? Sonny Gray is a dependable arm, but from there it’s questionable veterans and untested rookies. If things go bad, it will likely be because the arms simply weren’t enough. This could be a very good team, a mediocre team, or a relatively bad team virtually all tied to what happens on the mound. Detroit Tigers 77-85 (67-95) Javier Baez’s deal with Detroit surprised many because of the assumed tie between Carlos Correa and A.J. Hinch. Baez has plenty of flaws but some of them are a bit overstated. He gives a winning presence to a team on the cusp. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson should be in the lineup soon, and Akil Baddoo turned out to be a bad man last year. I don’t know how well they’ll pitch, but acquiring Eduardo Rodriguez was a smart move. Kansas City Royals 75-87 (70-92) Prospects are the name of the game for the Royals. Bobby Witt Jr. looks like a superstar as does both M.J. Melendez and Nick Pratto. Salvador Perez put up insane numbers a season ago and will look to replicate that performance. Pitching is questionable here too, and I’m not sure Zack Greinke has much left in the tank. The bullpen is uninspiring, and there’s plenty of lineup holes. They’re getting better, but not there yet. Cleveland Guardians 73-89 (77-85) You don’t have to look much further than the newly named Guardians to find the Central’s most rudderless team. The farm system isn’t elite, but the Major League roster is also barren. Jose Ramirez is amazing, and a healthy Shane Bieber is lights out, but beyond that there’s very little to like here. A lot of post-hype prospects and guys that have ceilings they never got close to touching reside on this roster. Alongside their lack of spending this offseason, deciding not to blow it up was a weird path forward. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Forget the fact that 2020 was an uncharacteristically weird and difficult year in and of itself, trying to deduce anything from the shortened baseball season proved impossible. Back to a more traditional slate in 2021, we have some storylines to actually dive into. Rather than focusing just on the Minnesota Twins, I think it’s worthwhile to take a look at the division as a whole. The AL Central was projected to be among baseball’s worst, and while that may be true, there are some signs of hope across the board. New contenders emerged, and talents have risen. Here’s a few of my takeaways from each of the competitors within the division. Chicago White Sox Expected to compete with the Twins for an AL Central division title, Chicago ran away with it. Up by more than double-digits for most of the second half, this season was not the Southsiders playing little brother to the nationally branded Cubs anymore. This wasn’t much of a race from about May on, and that was definitely to Chicago’s credit. Tony La Russa’s club dealt with more injuries than anyone in the division, and despite depth seeming like a question, they weather and excelled through the storm. Luis Robert looks like an absolute problem, and Eloy Jimenez is going to hit a boatload of homers. Lance Lynn has been a Cy Young candidate all year, and Liam Hendriks has been every bit the stud closer he was signed to be. Sustainability appears to be there for the White Sox, and if anyone wants to knock them off their throne they’ll need to rise up in a big way. If there’s opportunity for Chicago it may come down to a lack of challenge. They’ve played .500 baseball since mid-season, but they haven’t had anyone provide a test within the division. Depending on how the Postseason goes for them, tenacity could be ratcheted up in 2022 and a 100-win campaign may be their next goal to surpass. Cleveland The most notable thing that Cleveland has done this year may be changing their name to the Guardians. This was a team expected to take a step backwards and it has. Built largely around stud pitching, they’ve dealt with substantial injuries to the rotation. Once baseball cracked down on sticky substances, few organizations found it more detrimental than these guys did. Star reliever James Karinchak is a mess, and there’s more uncertainty about a future direction for this club than ever. Jose Ramirez remains a stud, but it still was probably a down year by his standards. Team options remain each of the next two seasons, and while it will be picked up, there’s little reason for a talent like this to be a part of a rebuild. Cleveland doesn’t have much around the diamond, has remained lost in the outfield, and they could be looking at Terry Francona deciding his health won’t allow for a return. Consistently one of the division’s best, this is definitely looking like an opportunity for a changing of the guard. They haven’t been horrible by any means, but the lack of anything noteworthy happening for Cleveland this season is about as descriptive as one could imagine. Detroit Tigers Arguably one of the best surprises this season has been the emergence of the Detroit Tigers. Under new management in the form of A.J. Hinch, this isn’t a Ron Gardenhire club looking to get through to the next wave anymore. Detroit has been the best team in the division since about the halfway point, and that’s scary for anyone uncertain if they’re figuring it out. Miguel Cabrera reached his milestone, but this team is all about the youth movement. Matt Manning made his debut, Casey Mize has looked the part at times, and Akil Baddoo has looked like one of the best Rule 5 Draft selections in history. Add in that top prospects like Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene are both at Triple-A and the talent pool gets even scarier for this club. I’m not sure we’ve seen enough to suggest Detroit is making the leap in 2022 yet, but there’s no doubt the arrow for the organization is pointing straight up. Hinch is a good man to lead them. The front office needs to be a bit more forward thinking and show aggressiveness, but the Tigers don’t reside in the doldrums anymore. Kansas City Royals I picked the Royals to unseat Cleveland for third in the division this year, and while they’re six games behind, the narrative is of a fast start and then quickly gassing out. Kansas City made some interesting moves this offseason in hopes of raising their water level. Most of them had safe floors and low ceilings. With peaks coming early for a lot of that talent, they sputtered quickly and never really leveled off. The Royals are in a weird spot with many of their regulars. Salvador Perez put up a career year but will be 32-years-old despite now being signed through 2025. Carlos Santana has not been good, and Andrew Benintendi needed a late season surge to save his slash line. The rotation has seen some great exposure for youth like Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, and even Jackson Kowar. Is it enough to jumpstart the turnaround in 2022 though? Helping the Royals out will be a pair of infielders ready to rake. Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Prato both appear big-league ready, and they should be able to step in quickly next season. This is a team with plenty of questions, not a ton of certain answers, but some very intriguing options. Minnesota Twins If there was a group that failed in the division there’s no where else to turn than the Twins. Expected to defend two straight division titles, they never made things interesting with Chicago. Pitching started out a disaster and then shifted between which group was to blame. The offense took a while to get going, and then major injury issues set them back again. Three of the best developments this season came in the form of health proving performance for Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, and Byron Buxton. The two former talents had down years with small sample sizes while playing through injury last season. Buxton only further substantiated that he’s among the best in the game when available. Both of the first two will be back, and while the third is under contract, he’s a year from free agency and the organization much decide which way to go. Baldelli will be working through adversity for the first offseason of his career. Derek Falvey must retool the roster with talent that can be paired with youth in order to take a step forward. It was also made abundantly clear that too much depth is never a problem you’ll have. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Box Score Ober: 3 1/3 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K Home Runs: Alex Kirilloff (8), Jorge Polanco (11) Top 3 WPA: Jorge Polanco .454, Luis Arraez .128, Alexander Colomé .124 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) It appeared as though a win simply wasn’t in the cards for the Twins for the majority of the game on Saturday afternoon. Starting pitcher Bailey Ober started off the game strong, striking out the side in the first inning, but flamed out brightly during the Tigers’ second time through the order. Niko Goodrum and Zack Short crushed balls over the fence and Harold Castro brought in another to give Detroit a 4-0 lead after four innings. But, remarkably, things started to go the Twins’ way in the second half of the game. Derek Law and Danny Coloumbe came on in relief for Ober and pitched 3 ⅔ innings of scoreless ball. Alex Kirilloff blasted a home run over the right centerfield fence to cut the lead to 4-2 in the sixth. Jorge Polanco added three more in the seventh with his 11th home run of the season. Alexander Colomé pitched a scoreless top of the eighth inning after allowing a leadoff double and four Twins’ runners touched home in the bottom of the frame. After the dust had settled, the Twins had turned a 4-0 deficit with an 8.2% win expectancy into a 9-4 win, clinching a series victory over the Tigers. While their opponent was not exactly the same caliber of, say, a Chicago or Boston, the Twins’ win on Saturday should provide the masses with a breath of fresh air. The bullpen performed well, the offense came through in the clutch, one of the franchise’s premier prospects hit a mammoth bomb. At the end of the day, a quality win is a quality win, regardless of opponent. A Note on Ober Although Ober struggled against an iffy Tigers lineup, he continued to display signs of promise for the future. By now it has been well established that his fastball is significantly improved from the last time he played live ball in 2019 and it is that improvement that helped propel him into the majors this season. However, the key for him moving forward is all about process. At 92-94 mph, Ober isn’t going to overpower batters on a consistent basis. That is where his strong command and control comes into play. If he is able to place a 94 mph heater wherever he wishes, he becomes a much more dangerous opponent. However, over his last two starts, his command has been mediocre at best. He walked three during his win over the White Sox and two against the Tigers on Saturday. But, I wonder if the Twins are working with him on improving his pitch placement. Ober consistently works his fastball up in the zone with up-and-away being the second most frequent location it was deployed against Detroit; this is where his fastball is most effective. He couples his fastball with a sharp curveball down in the zone. In the minors, pitchers of Ober’s caliber can get away with somewhat shoddy pitch command/location. That won’t fly against a major league batting order. Making adjustments on the fly to where he is looking to throw the ball would help explain at least some of the control issues Ober has displayed as of late. His strikeout numbers are there, but once his command improves and he starts missing more barrels, he’ll be right in-line to contend for a rotation spot moving forward. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Law 0 0 50 0 0 27 77 Thielbar 29 0 20 0 20 0 69 Duffey 17 0 0 15 0 21 53 Rogers 31 0 0 6 0 0 37 Robles 12 0 0 0 24 0 36 Colomé 0 14 0 0 0 17 31 Coulombe 0 12 0 0 0 13 25 Alcala 0 0 0 0 23 0 23 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  5. As teams begin to kick off a more traditional Spring Training with the goal of completing it entirely this season, we’re now looking forward to a full 162-game slate. The Twins return as repeat AL Central Division champions, and they’ll look for a three-peat in 2021. Shuffling has taken place throughout the Central with Chicago having had a strong offseason, Cleveland selling off, and Kansas City quietly making some noise. Last year I put this projection piece out in February, and then needed to come up with an amended version at the end of July. Let’s hope for good health and as much baseball as we can handle this time around. Here’s how I have the AL Central going, along with PECOTA projections in parenthesis. Minnesota Twins 97-63 (90-72) It’s more than fair to suggest the Twins could’ve taken further steps forward this offseason, however they had the least to improve upon. Piece did depart, but none of them were substantial contributors and the addition of Andrelton Simmons should make a massive impact defensively. This team is going to go as far as a healthy Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton allow them too. It’d be great if Miguel Sano were the Nelson Cruz aging insurance along the way. Expect additions at the deadline, and a stable of prospects are near ready to contribute. Chicago White Sox 90-72 (82-80) There’s no denying that the South Siders have closed even more of the gap. That said, I still think this club is in for some regression given the unpredictability of youth. They broke out in a big way during a shortened 2020 campaign that afforded them the luxury of small sample sizes. Thinking back to the 2018 Twins, a similar swoon could happen here. The talent level is too great to drift too far, but they should be considered a runner-up. Postseason expectations are a must however, and they shouldn’t have much problem achieving that. Kansas City Royals 78-84 (72-90) While the Royals are not yet there, and they are waiting on some offensive prospects to step up, they did a lot of nice things this winter. The Mike Minor signing was an underrated one, and Carlos Santana should provide a steadying veteran presence for them. I like Brady Singer and Kris Bubic in the rotation and think there’s a different trajectory here than in years past. This isn’t a Kansas City club yet ready to compete, but they’re substantially better than the bottom feeding Tigers and should have more firepower than Cleveland. Cleveland Indians 77-85 (85-77) Rather than load up for one last go with a strong rotation and a final year of Francisco Lindor, Cleveland decided to punt on 2021. The rotation is top heavy with Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale, but beyond that there’s more question marks with upside than anything. They’ve done a good job developing arms, and I’d expect that to continue, but it still needs to be proven. There isn’t much talent in the field or at the plate, and if they aren’t going to compete it makes little sense to hang onto Jose Ramirez. Assuming he’s dangled at the deadline, they could accelerate the rebuild they’re now destined for. Detroit Tigers 65-97 (66-96) A.J. Hinch has a tall task in front of him as this isn’t a club rich with talent akin to the Astros teams he’s used to having led. That said, there’s going to be a handful of prospects that filter into Comerica this year, and Detroit has one of the best systems in the game. I’d expect some of those kids to take their lumps, and even if they do produce, there’s just not enough on the roster to raise the overall water level. That said, this club isn’t far from turning the corner and adding pieces with a focus on competing once again. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. We’ve finally made it and baseball is back in just a matter of days. The Minnesota Twins will kick off this 60-game sprint in Chicago, and they’ll look to distance themselves from a team looking to prove they’re ready. I put out a 162-game projection back in February, but with so many logistical changes and update is necessary. I don’t foresee any changes in the positioning among the teams from where I had them at the beginning of the year, but we’re obviously only going to play roughly one-third of the games now. There’s significantly more volatility involved, and it will play against Minnesota more than any other club. That said, here’s how the division shakes out this season, and in parenthesis what the PECOTA projections are for each team in this scenario: Minnesota Twins 36-24 (35-25) There’s no argument to be made that Minnesota isn’t the best team in this division. They have arguably the best lineup in baseball and aren’t far behind with their bullpen. The rotation is cemented in depth and there’s plenty of candidates to be a top-tier arm as well. Josh Donaldson is a massive addition and having Rich Hill from the jump should be a nice boost. The Twins have stiffer competition in the White Sox this year, but it’s hard not to see the Indians having taken a step backwards. Cleveland Indians 32-28 (32-28) While it won’t be long before Chicago overtakes Cleveland, I’m not sure it happens in 2020. Cleveland still has an awesome rotation at the top with Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber. Clevinger is already a health risk though, and Carlos Carrasco’s return is a question mark. Save for Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, there’s also concerns about star power in the lineup. Should this club stumble out of the gate, maybe Lindor gets moved at the deadline. Chicago White Sox 31-29 (31-29) I’m all in on Luis Robert, he’s going to be a stud. What his career ends up being remains to be seen, and while I think he could break out right away, there’s still plenty more that needs to go right for the White Sox. Lucas Giolito faded at times in 2019, and neither Dallas Keuchel nor Gio Gonzalez are impact pitchers anymore. Yasmani Grandal is a huge addition, but someone had to supplement the flash in the pan that was James McCann a year ago. The Southsiders will be knocking at the door soon, and the shortened season helps their chances, but give it one more year. Kansas City Royals 24-36 (25-35) Down here you’re really competing for the best of the worst, and I’m not certain what way these final two shake out. It’s my belief that the Royals slide will be less drastic than the volatility of the Tigers prospects. Kansas City isn’t good, and they aren’t exciting either. There are some pieces here though that can squeak out enough to stay out of the bottom spot in the division. Detroit Tigers 22-38 (26-34) I’m really excited to see what Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Alex Faedo, and Riley Greene can do. Unfortunately, none of those guys will be on the Opening Day roster, and while watching Miguel Cabrera chase down records is fun, there’s nothing else of note here. I don’t think Ron Gardenhire is the right guy to push a prospect-laden team forwards as that’s where he ended his tenure with the Twins, so he may see his way out around the time new faces make their debuts. In case you missed it, here’s how I have the yearly awards and Postseason shaking out as well: Award Winners and World Series Victors For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. It has been a week since the Minnesota Twins' last off day, and in that time they've played six games, all on the road and all against divisional opponents. The Good: The good news is that the Twins still don't have a losing segment on their schedule. This means that they have yet to have a losing road trip or home stand. The team ended the week with a slug fest against the Detroit Tigers, but early in the week it was Jose Berrios' start that snapped a 2-game losing "streak." Berrios looked like everything an ace should be, righting the team's ship following two poor performances, the first game being Devin Smeltzer looking good except for four mistake pitches that were belted for home runs and the second a game where the Twins pitching and defense squandered an offense that put up 7 runs. Of course Berrios wouldn't have been able to win the game if it wasn't for Max "Power" Kepler breaking his 0-21 at-bat streak with 3 home runs. The Twins bats are still another good, with the team hitting 16 more home runs to bring their season total to 125. The Bad: I'm going to have to say that the bad of this week was probably a few pitchers just losing it when they needed it. The week started with Smeltzer's mistakes leading to 5 runs, which was the first loss. Game two featured 7 Twins' runs, but also featured Blake Parker giving up 3 runs in one inning and the team losing by 2. Skipping to the Twins 9-3 loss on Saturday in Detroit, starter Kyle Gibson gave up 5 runs while reliever Matt Magill gave up 4 in one inning. So, the Twins definitely need to find some more consistency especially out of the bullpen. It is worth noting that Smeltzer has been sent back down to triple-A with the return of Michael Pineda. The Ugly: The Twins not landing Craig Kimbrel. This is less about the team and more about the fans around the team. Reports are that the Twins made a very competitive offer, but Kimbrel decided to sign with the Chicago Cubs, reportedly because he wanted at least a three year deal. The reception by fans has not been happy. Kimbrel undoubtedly has elite stuff, and could be key to a Cubs playoff run, which would only make Twins fans more angry. Of course I alluded to it before, but the casual fan saw Kimbrel as the move to solidify the bullpen and give consistency to a group that can really rely on one maybe two pitchers in high leverage situations. However, I don't know that the Kimbrel move would have done that. Kimbrel has yet to face any big league hitters this year, and likely won't see the field for another few weeks. Nobody knows where his stuff will be after not having pitched since last October, it might take a month to figure out, or he might not be very good for the whole rest of this year. The final gripe that I've seen with this deal, or lack thereof, is that this is "typical Pohlad penny-pinching." However, Kimbrel's issue wasn't with money but with years, so the Twins may have been ready to put up the money, but didn't want to lock themselves in and be prevented from making moves in the future. In any case, this was a miss on a free agent that is sure to cause a rift between a lot of fans and the team, especially if the bullpen does not perform up to snuff for what should be a good playoff team.
  8. We are now at the point in the Major League Baseball calendar where exhibition games have commenced, teams are looking at how to fill out their 25-man roster, and the regular season is on the horizon. Although a few marquee free agents remain, I’m at a point where I feel good about how what could potentially be baseball’s worst division, is going to play out. The incumbent division winning Cleveland Indians are ready to defend their throne and it’ll be on a challenger to emerge. Including current PECOTA projections (as of February 26, 2019) next to predicted records, here’s how this writer has the standings for the American League Central playing out: 1. Minnesota Twins 92-70 (83-79) No team has done more in the division to take strides forward than the Twins for 2019. While that’s great in a vacuum, no team was also able to make bigger moves than Minnesota as well. I’ve dug deeper into why I think this is realistic in a secondary piece here, but the front office must be hoping what they’ve done is enough. Despite what’s being billed as a “wait and see” type approach, I’m all in on the Falvey and Levine being vindicated in their decision making. 2. Cleveland Indians 89-73 (96-66) Quite opposite of the Twins, arguably no team within the division has gotten worse than the Indians. Cleveland loses Michael Brantley as well as Carlos Santana. They’ve replaced the latter with Edwin Encarnacion, but there’s no outfield to speak of, and significant reliance on repeat performances. Trevor Bauer, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor all posted career year’s in 2018, all while Cleveland mustered just 91 wins. Lindor will miss the beginning of the season, and despite the rotation still being among the best in baseball, it’s hard not wondering what else to fall in love with surrounding this team. 3. Chicago White Sox 73-89 (70-92) One of the trendiest teams in baseball right now, the White Sox are being lauded for their stellar farm system. There’s no denying that Eloy Jimenez is a stud, and he’s backed by names like Kopech, Cease, and Robert. The first starter on that list is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery though, and there’s always an incredible amount of volatility when it comes to top prospects (ask Twins fans about that.) Manny Machado would’ve moved the needle for this franchise, but instead of going all in, Kenny Williams signed friends and family hoping that would be enough. Chicago will get there, and an 11-game jump in the win column from 2018 is no small task, but that’s about where the fun ends. 4. Kansas City Royals 69-93 (72-90) Welcome to the dreaded middle ground. It was great for the Royals that they popped up and won a World Series, as the fanbase could be looking at mediocrity or worse for quite some time. The big-league club is void of any real star potential, and the farm system is among the worst in baseball. Kansas City can’t spend big with it making any sort of a difference, but they’ve also yet to hit on any prospects that put them in a better light going forward. If you’re a Royals fan, the highlight of the season is June 3rd when Dayton Moore will have the second overall pick in the 2019 Major League Baseball Draft. 5. Detroit Tigers 62-100 (67-95) If Kansas City is considered the dreaded middle ground, then Detroit is trending in a much better direction. The Tigers have a strong farm system headlined by pitching stalwarts, and they also hold the 5th overall pick this summer. There’s still plenty of questions surrounding both Michael Fulmer and Matthew Boyd, and Detroit is hoping to see Nicholas Castellanos take yet another step forward, but there’s some building blocks here. Miguel Cabrera is on his way to Cooperstown, but Niko Goodrum has provided some immediate intrigue in the infield. This team won’t be good in 2019, but they could certainly flip the script in the coming years. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. With free agency being a bit slower moving (to put it nicely) this offseason, this piece comes out a few weeks later than in previous years. At this point, there's still a handful of quality major league talent unemployed. For the most part, I think the AL Central is looking towards the year ahead as opposed to who else can join them in competing during 2018. Projection systems have started to run win totals for the upcoming season, and major sportsbook Bovada has also posted over/under win totals for each team. Rather than hold out for the last of the remaining free agents to leave IMG Academy in Bradenton, it's time to throw numbers out for the Twins and their competition. Here's how I see the AL Central in 2018: 1. Cleveland Indians (98-64) The team at the top of the division seems to have taken a slight step backwards over the offseason. Carlos Santana left for the Phillies, and key pen arm Bryan Shaw is no longer in the mix. Yonder Alonso will have to recapture his Oakland magic if he's going to remove the memory of Santana, and it'll be lightning in a bottle if Melvin Upton or one of the MiLB deals pans out well. That said, the Indians are still the team to be in the division, and it's largely on the backs of a strong pitching staff. Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco remain lights out at the top, with a strong duo of Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer behind them. The bottom half of the Central getting weaker should help add some additional wins to offset some of the talent losses. 2. Minnesota Twins (87-75) If you asked me to take a bet on what was more likely, the Twins win 90 games or lose 81, I'd take the former. After making a Postseason appearance a season ago, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine accomplished what they set out to do this winter. Although the club didn't land the big fish in Yu Darvish, Jake Odorizzi is a top three starter for them, and helps to supplement the roation. The relief corps was strengthened with the addition of Addison Reed, and both Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney should play a big role for this club. With so many players still looking for jobs, it's fair to wonder if Minnesota doesn't aim a bit higher than Kennys Vargas or Robbie Grossman for the DH role. I'd expect Miguel Sano to miss a handful of games due to suspension, but still think he'll have a shot at surpassing the 114 contests he got into a season ago. Another year of growth for the youth, plus some key veteran additions, make the Twins the most improved team in the AL. Their record is a reflection of battling back against regression, as well as a division that should have plenty more wins to be had from the doldrums. 3. Kansas City Royals (72-90) If there's a team that lost more than the Indians over the offseason, it's definitely the Royals. Unfortunately for Kansas City, they don't have near the ability left to overcome it. Exits from Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain will be felt mightily, and even if Mike Moustakas is brought back, the core just isn't there any longer. Jason Vargas played a key role in the first half for the Royals, and he's now in New York. Combine the exits with a lack of internal talent ready to step up and you've got somewhat of a doomsday scenario. Right now, the Royals are treading water but don't have much of a direction. The farm doesn't have anything in terms of top prospects, and there's a lot of fliers at the top that can play fill in roles. Without much in terms of capital to deal for future talent either, it could be a bit before the Royals find themselves relevant again. 4. Chicago White Sox (69-93) Arguably the most talent deprive 25 man roster in the division, the White Sox are in a full rebuild situation, but at least they know it. Having moved on from players in return for a good group of prospects, there's a plan in place here even if it takes a few more years to come to fruition. Over the winter, Chicago handed out a few low-risk veteran deals that should also be able to net them some pieces throughout the upcoming season. Yoan Moncada should be a staple at the big league level this season, but guys like Eloy Jimenez and Michael Kopech aren't there yet. Lucas Giolito needs to be a big arm for the South Siders, and players like Luis Robert, Blake Rutherford, and Dylan Cease have to develop in the year ahead as well. Most of the names Chicago will build its future around won't show up in 2018, but fans should be checking the box scores on the farm frequently. 5. Detroit Tigers (66-96) The bottom three teams in the division provide nice comparisons to each other. If the Royals are treading water without a plan, and the White Sox are stripping it down to rebuild, the Tigers are old and stuck in some level of purgatory. Miguel Cabrera still has six-years and $184 million left on his deal, and I'd suspect no one would take on Cabrera's contract at this point. Michael Fulmer is a nice young piece, but he probably isn't going to be around by the time Detroit finds itself relevant again. For new skipper Ron Gardenhire, the club is going to have to find a direction sooner rather than later. The club should hang around in the early going, but fading down the stretch and holding somewhat of a fire sale seems like a good bet. Gardenhire was let go around the time Minnesota could see the rebuild bear fruit, so he'll be navigating some similar waters in Motown with 90 loss seasons checking off the past four years of his resume. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. Twitter was ablaze with the news that the Minnesota Twins had signed former Marlins and Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez to a one-year deal. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports was the first to report a done deal, and also reported that it was a big-league deal worth $2.5 million over one year with the possibility of doubling that total via starts-based incentives. MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger passes on that the deal is not guaranteed, though it does mean Sanchez will get a 40-man spot — one step up from a minor-league deal with an invite to spring training. Sanchez came over to the Tigers in the second-biggest deal between them and the Marlins — the other involved Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller — and after pitching well down the stretch in 2012 earned an $80 million deal over five years. The righty, who turns 34 later this month, turned in two strong seasons to start the contract. He finished fourth in AL Cy Young balloting in 2013 with a 2.57 ERA in 182 innings in 2013, and the next year posted a 3.43 ERA in 126 innings as he was limited to just 22 appearances (21 starts) and 126 innings. The last three years have been much more unsightly, and may serve more as a cautionary tale than anything. It’d have been hard to find a Twins fan not in favor of signing Sanchez five years ago when he got the big deal from the Tigers. And right now, it’s hard to dodge a burning torch or a pitchfork among Twins fans wondering why this is the move instead of something more substantive. But maybe signing Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb to a four- or five-year deal isn’t the answer. And maybe Sanchez’s deal with the Tigers shows why. But the Twins’ deal with Sanchez doesn’t really feel like the proper counterbalance to that argument, you know? Over the last three years, Sanchez has made 88 appearances (68 starts), and posted a 5.67 ERA. FIP is a bit more generous (5.01), but it hasn’t looked good. That’s over 400 innings, too — it’s not like we’re being hypnotized by a small sample size or even one really bad year ruining the other two. He’s gotten progressively worse by ERA: 4.99, 5.87 and 6.41. Looking for hope in Sanchez’s numbers begin and ends with his strikeout and walk rates, as he’s still fanned 8.2 batters per nine over this tough stretch — above his career rate of 8.0 — while walking just 2.8. But he’s allowed a WHIP of 1.43 — perilously high, and spells out his contact issues — and he’s allowed an MLB-worst 1.8 home runs per nine over that time frame. Please click through to Zone Coverage to read the full story here.
  11. Please click HERE to read this article in full on Zone Coverage! It’s sunny and cool with a tinge of October in the air as the Minnesota Twins prepare for the season-ending series against the Detroit Tigers. It’s Fan Appreciation Weekend, and to get that underway, the Twins will send righty Kyle Gibson (5.02 ERA, 4.86 FIP in 154.1 innings) to the mound, where he’ll be opposed by lefty Matt Boyd (5.12 ERA, 4.36 FIP in 130 innings). More on that in a bit. The biggest news buzzing around Target Field came about an hour before the clubhouse opened, as the Twins activated third baseman Miguel Sano from the disabled list. Sano isn’t in the lineup Friday, but could get in there to hit late or perhaps make a start or two over the weekend at DH. Ultimately, it’s all up in the air leading up to Tuesday, though Molitor said that Sano could even be on the postseason roster but not start that game. “I worked hard,” Sano said. “I worked hard, coming here every day early in the morning to do what I needed to do in terms of rehabbing in order to do to be at this point.” Sano said he’s been doing his normal rehab lately, and that includes some pool work and some work with a bone stimulator. “I’m super excited,” Sano said. “The team is going to the playoffs. We’re playing one game and we have to play 100 percent and have all the tools necessary to win the game. I’m excited.” “There’s really no downside (in activating Sano),” manager Paul Molitor said. “There’s really nowhere for him to go to try play or rehab. He had a couple good days yesterday and today. I think he’s finally at a point where some of the apprehension about risk of playing has subsided. He hit quite a bit today. He ran a bit today.” Molitor followed that with a cold splash of water, however. “The reality is, it’s encouraging to some degree, but we have to keep perspective,” Molitor said. “I mean, it was what, Aug. 19 (he last played)? That’s a long time not to face major-league pitching.” “There’s a possibility I’ll try to get him an at-bat tonight somewhere in the game. We’ll see how he responds to all the work he did today and how he feels tomorrow, and whether we’ll be able to get a chance to use him as a DH over the next couple days. But it’s just kind of wait and see.” Sano’s on-field work, with the bat at least, was impressive though, Molitor did note. “It’ll be fun to see him out on the field taking some swings,” Molitor said. “His batting practice looked really good today, considering he hasn’t hit a ton — over the past couple of weeks in particular. We’ll just have to measure it day-by-day through the weekend. Unfortunately, we’ve been compressed into a small time window to have to make a decision about moving forward after this weekend.” Molitor also wouldn’t rule out a simulated game for Sano to replicate some live swings against pitching to help get him up to speed.
  12. The Minnesota Twins started the series with the New York Yankees being 1.5 games back from Cleveland for first place in the American League Central. By the end of the series, Minnesota was only .5 games back. Cleveland lost the series to the San Fransisco Giants in San Fransisco while the Twins won the series in Minnesota over New York. Miguel Sano guided the Twins in the final game of the three game set hitting a three-run home run that was in the middle of a six run inning leading to a Twins victory 6-1. Cleveland will play Toronto in a three game series at Progressive Field over the weekend as the Twins are at home vs Detroit. Minnesota stays at home in a three game weekend series against the Detroit Tigers. This series comes at a good time for the Twins because Detroit just traded their slugger, J.D. Martinez, to the Arizona Diamondbacks for prospects. In Game 1 of the three game set, Anibal Sanchez will take the hill for the Tigers as All-Star Ervin Santana will pitch for Minnesota. For the second game, Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann will face Kyle Gibson before Matthew Boyd and Adalberto Mejia square off in the finale of the series on Sunday. The Twins have a couple hot hitters at the moment including second basemen Brian Dozier and All-Star Miguel Sano. Since the All-Star break, Dozier is 9-23, has 6 RBI, 2 HR, and has scored five times. Miguel Sano is 5-22, 4 RBI, 2 HR, and has scored five times since the break. Minnesota will look to gain ground on Cleveland and get into first place in the American League Central during the weekend.
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