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The Twins have been a poor base running team in recent years, which projects to stay the same in 2023. Last season, Minnesota ranked last in baseball with 38 stolen bases, and FanGraphs ranked the team second to last in BsR, an all-encompassing base running statistic. Some of Minnesota's best base running prospects could help the team's running game in 2023 and beyond. Scouts and front office personnel use a 20-80 scale to evaluate players' tools. This ranking system also projects how those tools will change as the player develops. Speed is one tool that tends to decline as players age, and that reflects in the projections. Below are the top five Twins prospects regarding current and future speed potential. 5. Yasser Mercedes, OF Current Speed/Future Speed: 55/50 Mercedes quickly impacted the 2022 Dominican Summer League after signing with the Twins for $1.7 million out of the Dominican Republic. Born in Puerto Rico, he hit .355/.421/.555 (.975) with 13 doubles, three triples, and four home runs in 41 games. Even more impressively, he stole 30 bases in 35 attempts. He turned 18 in November, so he projects to become more physically mature. All his defensive innings came in center field last season, and the Twins hope he can stick at the position for the long term. Mercedes is a five-tool talent, and speed might be his worst tool when he reaches Target Field. 4. Ben Ross, UTL Current Speed/Future Speed: 60/55 The Twins took Ross with their fifth-round pick in last June's draft out of Notre Dame College (Ohio). Ross was a tremendous hitter in college as he batted .405/.471/.758 (1.229) and showed to be a baserunning threat. He played 22 of his 24 games at Low-A during his professional debut and went a perfect 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts. Since turning pro, the Twins have adjusted his swing, and he has added muscle to his frame. His speed can help him stick at shortstop, but he will likely move around the diamond to multiple defensive positions. He will likely begin 2023 in Fort Myers and is a prospect to watch during the 2023 campaign. 3. Jose Salas, SS Current Speed/Future Speed: 60/55 Salas was the top-ranked prospect acquired from the Marlins as part of the Luis Arraez-Pablo Lopez trade. In 2022, he went 33-for-34 in stolen base attempts between Low-A and High-A. He is a very athletic player that projects to add more weight to his body, which will likely take away from his speed before he reaches the big leagues. For now, he's considered a shortstop, but he might lose some quickness and shift to second base, third base, or the outfield. Salas was over three years younger than the average age of the competition in the Midwest League, so the Twins can have him start the 2023 season in Cedar Rapids. 2. Will Holland, SS/OF Current Speed/Future Speed: 70/65 The Twins selected Holland in the fifth round of the 2019 MLB Draft from Auburn University. His speed helps him on both sides of the ball, and that's one reason the Twins have used him at shortstop and in the outfield. Last season, he went 32-for-36 in stolen base attempts between High-A and Double-A. For a player with limited power, he doesn't make consistent contact (.227 BA in 2022), and he strikes out a lot (137 K in 116 G). His numbers did improve when he got to Double-A, so there is hope he can continue to develop at that level in 2023. 1. Royce Lewis, SS/OF Current Speed/Future Speed: 70/65 Evaluators have praised Lewis' speed since he was an amateur, but that was before two major knee surgeries. He returned strongly from the first surgery and is on pace to return to action later this year. His rehab work from the first knee surgery strengthened him and increased his speed. Lewis averaged 25 steals per season in both years, where he played over 50 games. Last season, he went 12-for-14 in stolen base attempts at Triple-A. Overall, he is a smart base runner with the speed to cause havoc for the opposition. Who do you think has the best speed tool in the Twins system? Should someone else make the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES -Power Tool -Hit Tool
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Austin Martin mysteriously disappeared from spring lineups for about a week before the Twins announced that he was shut down with the dreaded UCL sprain, an injury that often leads to Tommy John surgery in pitchers. The Twins have their own history of position players undergoing the surgery as well such as Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff. The severity is unknown at this time, but Martin will not return to action any time soon. How could this potentially devastating injury affect all parties involved? Austin Martin Martin is attempting to bounce back from his worst season as a professional, although his time in last year’s Arizona Fall League brought some hope. Any time missed would be difficult, as he still has to prove he can perform against Double-A pitching in order to be considered as an MLB option in 2023. If he were to miss an entire season, it would likely drop him significantly in the organizational depth chart. Martin dealt with injuries in 2022 as well which may have contributed to his below-league-average slash line in Double-A. Some call 2022 a “lost season” for Martin. If he were to have another in 2023, it may become difficult for the Twins to count on him being a legitimate future asset given his struggles to perform as well as his difficulties staying on the field. Other players who perform well will certainly pass him by, and it could create an uphill battle for him to establish himself on the Twins MLB roster. Young Prospects Martin missing significant time opens the door for other prospects. He had a legitimate shot to play himself onto the Twins this year with a bounce-back season. The Twins have enough players that could be expendable if a top prospect forces the issue. He had already been surpassed by Edouard Julien, and now many other young players will get an opportunity to capitalize. All eyes likely fall on Brooks Lee who, like Martin, was drafted as a shortstop but may settle in at second or third base down the line. Lee had already made it to Double-A just three months after being drafted by the Twins, and he’s likely to soak up Martin’s playing time in Wichita to begin 2023. Thus far, Lee has shown the skills to take hold of whatever position the Twins settle on, and Martin will have no ability to stave him off if he’s sidelined. If Martin’s injury turns out to be long-term, Royce Lewis could also beat him back to action. Lewis finds himself in the same boat as Lee and Martin. They may be looking for another position after the Twins gave Carlos Correa a six-year deal. If Martin were to play his way onto the big-league roster and establish himself at a position before Lewis returned this summer, it would’ve been hard to make a change. Instead, a long-term injury could lead to Lewis having a chance to establish himself first. There’s also the possibility of other infield prospects playing their way to Double-A in 2023 such as Jose Salas, Ben Ross, and Tanner Schobel. They would get every opportunity to cement themselves into whatever position they could, and if that position happened to be second or third base if Martin is still recovering, it would be their spot to lose. The Twins It would have been difficult to plan on Austin Martin making a significant impact on the 2023 Twins roster, but he was a part of their depth chart. With Jose Miranda having yet to prove himself as a passable defensive third baseman and Jorge Polanco’s injuries at second base, it’s likely the Twins utilize their minor-league infield depth at some point this season. While Julien is technically a second baseman, he has question marks defensively, and the Twins undoubtedly value a player’s glove work highly. Martin had flashed an ability to be a plus defender away from shortstop. With a good spring, the Twins could have seen added depth from Austin Martin, and if he performed well to start the season, they would have loved to bring him up with the right opportunity. Instead this likely leaves the recently-drafted Brooks Lee as the closest legitimate middle infield prospect to MLB action, and they’re still likely to be careful with him. As a result, it means players such as Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano will likely hang around for a good while regardless of their performance. Little is known of the extent of Martin’s UCL injury while he’s currently shut down. Some such injuries don’t require surgical intervention and it’s possible Martin is back on the field in a few weeks. Regardless, the best-case scenario is that an unfortunate injury will delay a very important season in the 2020 #5 overall pick’s career. The worst-case scenario is that Martin could endure his second consecutive lost season having never surpassed Double-A. In addition to his skillset raising significant red flags in 2022, injury has now become a legitimate concern as well. All the Twins and fans can do is wait to see how Martin’s elbow recovers with time off for now. The severity of his injury and the amount of time lost could have consequences across the organization.
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Minnesota's farm system has some strong players at the top, but not all of them will still qualify as prospects over the next two years. Last year at this time, I projected the team's top-5 prospects entering the 2024 season, and so far, those rankings are doing reasonably well. A lot can happen in one year for a team's farm system, so who will be the Twins' top prospect in 2025? 1. Emmanuel Rodriguez- OF Current TD Ranking: 3 ETA: 2025 Rodriguez topped this list at the same point last season, and he's only solidified his prospect status over the last year. He's a Top-100 global prospect, and there was a good chance he would have moved higher on the list if he hadn't been injured last season. He has one of the best power bats in the Twins system, and there is a chance he will move into the top 10 on national prospect lists with another strong year. During the 2023 season, Rodriguez should spend most of the year at High-A, where he will be younger than the average age of the competition. He should be on track to debut in 2025 if he continues on his current development path. 2. Marco Raya- SP Current TD Ranking: 4 ETA: 2025 Raya has pitched 65 innings in his professional career, but Baseball Prospectus has him ranked as baseball's 53rd overall prospect. He was three years younger than the average age of the competition at Low-A last season while posting a 3.05 ERA and a 73-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has one of the highest ceilings of any pitching prospect to come through the Twins system in quite some time. However, he is a long way from Target Field, and a lot can go wrong with a pitching prospect on their way to the big leagues. Raya can be the team's top prospect entering next season if he puts together even better numbers at High-A. 3. Connor Prielipp- SP Current TD Ranking: 7 ETA: 2024 Prielipp is one of the most intriguing pitching prospects in the Twins system, even though he has yet to make his professional debut. He was in the conversation for being selected near the top of the 2022 MLB Draft, but he fell to the second round after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He pitched in pre-draft workouts leading into the draft so teams could see how his rehab was progressing. MLB.com already has Prielipp ranked as the team's top pitching prospect. There is no reason to rush him next season, but there is a chance he will pass Raya over the next two years. 4. Jose Salas- INF Current TD Ranking: 8 ETA: 2025 Salas was one of two prospects in the Pablo Lopez and Luis Arraez trade earlier this winter. He was considered one of the Marlins' top prospects at the time of the trade. Last season, he hit .250/.339/.384 (.723) with 20 doubles, four triples, and nine home runs in 109 games. He only had one at-bat versus a younger pitcher last season, and Miami sent him to the Arizona Fall League as a 19-year-old. He likely spends most of the year in Cedar Rapids with a chance to reach Double-A by the season's end. 5. Yasser Mercedes- OF Current TD Ranking: 12 ETA: 2026 Mercedes was one of the top international prospects available during the 2022 signing period, and he showcased his skills during his professional debut. Minnesota sent him to the Dominican Summer League, and he hit .355/.421/.555 (.975) with 13 doubles, three triples, and four home runs in 41 games. He was also a threat on the bases by going 30-for-35 in stolen base attempts. It seems likely for him to make his stateside debut in 2023, and he could have an Emmanuel Rodriguez-style breakout if everything goes well. The Twins have a top-5 draft pick in 2023, so that player will also likely be in the mix to be at the top of this list. Who do you think will be the team's top prospect in 2025? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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There are still many questions surrounding one of the Twins' newest prospects such as what position in the infield he will eventually call home. If he can really develop himself into the power hitter many scouts believed he could be when they first discovered him in Venezuela. Age: 20 (DOB: 4/26/03) 2022 Stats (A/A+): 474 PA, .250/.339/.384, 9 HR, 41 RBI, 69 R, 33 SB ETA: 2024 2022 Ranking: NR National Top 100 Rankings BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: 93 What's to Like Before the Twins acquired Salas from the Marlins, he was ranked as one of their higher prospects (fifth by MLB.com) in the system. There is a lot of upside in his play regarding his running game and hit for contact. Salas's speed may be his greatest asset on the field right now as he swiped 33 stolen bases in 34 attempts across the 2022 season and had five multi-steal games. His running game is his best asset according to scouts, as scouting grades, have it ranked at a score of 55 to 60 per FanGraphs and MLB.com. Salas’s contact numbers did take a dip down from his potential in 2022 posting a .250 batting average between High and Low A. Still, scouting grades have his contact skills graded from the 50 to 60 range. In just his second week at High A Beloit, Salas did have his first-ever five-hit game in his professional career. The performance in that game shows there is still room for growth in his hitting that can make him a force at the plate. What's Left to Work On Salas has not had the best success on defense in his professional career so far, but 2022 was an improvement from his pro debut in 2021. His defensive game still lacks impact athleticism from each position he plays and he still needs to find a true defensive home. Salas has struggled most as a shortstop in 2021 with 17 errors in 45 games at the position. The number of errors in 2022 was cut down to four at the position in 46 games. While the number of errors was cut down in 2022, the strength in his throwing arm and athleticism on defense is still his greatest need to strengthen his game on the field. The Twins will likely still shuffle him around the infield on defense to see where his best position is this year and likely keep him there as he makes his way through the Minor Leagues. Salas’s power at the plate is part of his game that still needs development. At 6’2, and 191 pounds, he has a growing build that will give him more power as he ages. But he only had nine home runs with a .384 slugging percentage for the season. What's Next The early guesses for where Salas will start his 2023 season in the Twins organization have him at High A Cedar Rapids. With a plethora of infielders in the organization at different levels of the Minor League, there is no need for the Twins to rush Salas up before he is ready for the next level. As Salas continues to develop his strengths and weakness on the field, he will be making his way to Double-A Wichita at some point in the 2023 season. Feel free to discuss these prospects and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below. For more Twins Daily content on Jose Salas, click here. Previous Rankings Honorable Mentions Prospects 21-30 Prospects 16-20 Prospects 11-15 #10: Austin Martin, OF/SS #9: Louie Varland, RHP #8: Jose Salas, INF #7: Coming Soon
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2023 Twins Top 10 Prospect Rankings: Where Does Jose Salas Fit?
Cody Christie posted an article in Minors
Many national prospect rankings have recently been released, with some debate at the top for the Twins. Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee are considered the team's best prospects, but their order differs depending on which list readers prefer. Emmanuel Rodriguez appears on multiple top 100 lists, so he is another name to watch in 2023. The Marlins included Jose Salas as part of the Luis Arraez trade, and this is where I'd place him in the team's top-10 list: 10. Matt Wallner, OF Age: 25 2022 Levels: AA, AAA, MLB Wallner is coming off his best professional season, which saw him hit .277/.412/.542 (.953) in the upper minors before making his big-league debut. He's in the same age range as Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff, so it will be interesting to see how the organization utilizes these three young players. Wallner will likely start the year at Triple-A if everyone is healthy, but he should be one of the team's first call-ups in 2023. 9. Edouard Julien, INF Age: 23 2022 Level: AA Julien was one of Minnesota's breakout prospects in 2023. He hit .300/.441/.490 (.931) with 19 doubles, three triples, and 17 home runs. The Twins sent him to the Arizona Fall League, and he continued to rake with a 1.248 OPS in 21 games. Minnesota added him to their 40-man roster, so he should debut in 2023. Julien moved higher on the organizational depth chart after the Twins traded Arraez. 8. Jose Salas, INF Age: 19 2022 Levels: A, A+ The Marlins were aggressive with Salas throughout his professional career. Last year, he split time between Low- and High-A, and he was over three years younger than the average age of the competition in the Midwest League. In 109 games, he hit .250/.339/.384 (.723) with 20 doubles, four triples, and nine home runs. He is expected to add more to his frame, and his power numbers should increase. Some believe he can stick at shortstop, but he is comfortable playing multiple defensive positions. Salas should play most of his games in Cedar Rapids, but the team might want him to play in Fort Myers for the season's early months. He's a long way from Target Field, but he is still a prospect to watch in 2023. 7. Louie Varland, SP Age: 25 2022 Levels: AA, AAA, MLB Varland has been named the team's minor league pitcher of the year in back-to-back seasons. That has yet to happen in the Twins organization since Jose Berrios was a top-100 prospect. In 24 appearances, he posted a 3.06 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and 10.4 K/9. His strikeout totals dropped at the big-league level, but his sample size was limited to five starts. He projects to start the year in St. Paul's rotation, but he should pitch in important games for the Twins in 2023. 6. Marco Raya, SP Age: 20 2022 Level: A Raya made his professional debut in 2022 as a 19-year-old in the Florida State League. Only 42 of his at-bats came against younger batters because he was three years younger than the average age of the competition at his level. In 19 appearances (65 1/3 innings), he posted a 3.05 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. Baseball Prospectus ranks Raya as baseball's 53 overall prospect, which is higher than any other national ranking. Minnesota can let Raya start the year back in Fort Myers, but most of his innings should be in Cedar Rapids. 5. Simeon Woods Richardson, SP Age: 22 2022 Levels: AA, AA. MLB Woods Richardson bounced back nicely in 2022 after struggling through parts of the 2021 season. In 23 appearances (107 1/3 IP), he posted a 2.77 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. He has been significantly younger than the median age of the competition throughout his professional career. Minnesota's starting pitching depth will have Woods Richardson continuing to develop at Triple-A this season. His performance and the health of other players will dictate how long he stays in St. Paul. 4. Connor Prielipp, LHP Age: 22 2022 Levels: N/A The Twins took Prielipp with the 48th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. He fell that far after undergoing Tommy John surgery in college, so he should be ready to make his professional debut in 2023. His fastball and slider are both MLB-ready pitches, and his changeup also projects to be above average. The Twins were confident enough in his pre-draft workouts to go over slot value to sign him. Minnesota will work him back slowly in 2023, but he has all the traits necessary to be an ace pitcher. 3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF Age: 19 2022 Level: A Rodriguez has a chance to be the most exciting prospect in the Twins farm system. Last year, he hit .272/.493/.552 (1.044) with five doubles, three triples, and nine home runs in 47 games. The only thing that slowed him down was a knee injury that ended his season in June. Many national prospect lists have taken notice of Rodriguez's performance as he is a consensus top-100 prospect. He has a chance to be a top-25 global prospect entering next season, especially if his power continues to develop. 2. Royce Lewis, SS/3B/OF Age: 23 2022 Levels: AAA, MLB Lewis surprised many with how strongly he returned from ACL surgery during the 2022 campaign. The Twins sent him to Triple-A, and he hit .313/.405/.534 (.940) with 18 extra-base hits in 34 games. His big-league debut went nearly as well with a .867 OPS with four doubles and two home runs. Unfortunately, his season ended early after he tore his ACL running into the Target Field wall. Lewis should be ready by the middle of the season to help bolster the team's line-up. 1. Brooks Lee, SS Age: 21 2022 Levels: Rookie, A+, AA Lee was considered the best college bat in the 2022 draft class, so the Twins were thrilled that he fell to them with the eighth overall pick. Two months following the draft, he played in the Double-A playoffs after combining for a .839 OPS at three different levels. Lee likely won't stick at shortstop when he reaches the majors, but the Twins hope Correa can fill that position for multiple years. Minnesota doesn't need to rush him in 2023; he can reach the big leagues in the second half. The Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospect Rankings will be coming in early February with input from all of the site's minor league contributors. Who is ranked too high? Who is ranked too low? Should Austin Martin be in the top 10? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.- 58 comments
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In a move sure to spark heated debated, fan favorite Luis Arraez was traded to the Miami Marlins on Friday for a package that includes right-handed pitcher Pablo López, infielder Jose Salas, and outfielder Byron Chourio. Let’s get to know the two prospects in the deal. Just as it emerged that the trade talks between the Twins and Marlins were at a standstill, a deal was completed in the early afternoon hours on Friday. Dan Hayes had recently reported that the Twins weren’t willing to trade Arraez for López straight up. So it proved to be, with the Twins also acquiring significant prospect capital in exchange for the 2022 AL batting champion. What do we know about the prospects involved in this deal? Let’s dig in. Jose Salas Grades (courtesy of BA) Hit: 55 Power: 50 Run: 45 Arm: 55 Field: 50 Let’s get clear, Salas is a legitimately excellent prospect. In Baseball Prospectus’ Top 101 (released this morning) he was ranked 93rd, he was 83rd in Fangraphs most recent Top 100 at the end of the 2022 season. Although not a consensus Top 100 prospect (not in MLB or Baseball America lists), he can be seen as a fringy top 100 player and one of four excellent Marlins prospects (Perez, Max Meyer, Berry), likely, the one you haven’t heard of. In Salas, the Twins have acquired an infielder who has good projectability left. He is just 19 years old and stands at 6’2. He has strong tools across the board. Salas was born in Florida, but split his time between Orlando and Venezuela growing up. Salas was signed by the Marlins during the 2019 International Free Agency period, receiving a hefty $2.8 million bonus. Salas crushed when he debuted, boasting a .578 SLG in 28 games of rookie ball before getting a debut in Low-A ball at 18 years old. After an initial drop off in his offensive output at the tail end of 2021, he began 2022 in Jupiter and adjusted nicely, increasing his Slugging Percentage from .315 to .421 before spending the second half of the season at High-A. Salas is a switch hitter who hits well from both sides of the plate. He projects to have above average power as he continues to fill out (20-25 home runs). Salas has a low-effort swing that has been ground ball prone early in his career. If he can work towards contacting the ball earlier in the strike zone, he should have a good hit tool. Salas success on the base paths are more a reflection of outstanding baserunning than great speed. In two minor league season, he's stolen 47 bases. Salas’ defensive home remains uncertain. He has a strong arm but may slow as he fills out meaning a transition to another infield position. A member of an NL operations department said of Salas: 'His tools are pretty damn impressive. He will probably be a bottom of the scale runner, hurting his chances to keep playing shortstop of even second base'. Salas’ work ethic and drive have been praised by coaches he has worked with. Bottom Line: Salas is an exciting prospect with strong tools across the board. The Twins have added another fringy top 100 prospect to their system (in addition to Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Marco Raya, and Edouard Julien) and helped replenish the hit they took at the 2022 trade deadline. Salas is an exciting addition to a talented system. Byron Chourio At first glance, Chourio may seem like the lottery ticket acquisition in the Luis Arraez/Pablo Lopez trade. A Venezuelan outfielder signed by the Marlins in 2022, Chourio is just 17 years old. At 6’2, and 171 pounds, there’s plenty of room for him to add some mass as he grows and develops. The Twins seem to like what they have acquired in Chourio. Assigned to the DSL Marlins, Chourio debuted last season, hitting .344/.429/.410 (.838) with nine doubles and one home run, 23 runs batted in, and 19 stolen bases in 51 games in his first professional season in the Dominican Summer League. We’ll continue to add more information about Chourio as we get it. What are you impressions of the Twins return for Arraez? What do you think of Salas? What’s your evaluation of the trade? Join the discussion below.
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