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Ten years ago, the Twins had the second overall pick, which had the potential to alter the franchise’s future. Let’s look back at how that draft unfolded and explore if the Twins made the correct decision. Major League Baseball’s 2022 Draft is scheduled to start on July 17, 2022. Each team prepares for the draft with a specific plan, and sometimes those plans play out better than others. To prepare fans for the upcoming draft, here is a look at some of the most important drafts in recent Twins history. The 2012 MLB Draft was an interesting time in Twins franchise history. Minnesota was coming off a very disappointing 2011 season where the team went from first to worst in the division. One benefit of having a poor record is receiving a high draft pick the following year. The Twins received the second overall pick and made five of the first 72 picks. At the top, there was no consensus number one pick, so this left some room for debate. Houston selected first overall and ended up with arguably the draft’s best player. Carlos Correa signed an under-slot value deal to join the Astros, and Houston was able to use that money on other picks later in the draft. Correa has been worth over 35 WAR for his career, which is over 12 WAR higher than any other player taken in that draft. His value also stretched into October, when he became a postseason legend. In retrospect, Houston made the correct pick at the top, but now Minnesota was on the clock. The Twins could go in multiple directions with the second pick, but the team needed to decide if they could be patient with a prep player or look to the college ranks for a more immediate impact. Some of the best college players available included Mike Zunino (10.2 WAR), Kevin Gausman (17.9 WAR), Mark Appel (0.0 WAR), and Kyler Zimmer (0.0 WAR). Minnesota turned their attention to rural Georgia and a dynamic five-tool prospect named Byron Buxton. Buxton was considered by many to be the top prospect in the draft. Minnesota paid him $6 million to sign, which was the biggest signing bonus handed out in that draft. Buxton’s 17.5 WAR ranks as the fifth-highest among 2012 first-round picks behind Correa, Corey Seager, Matt Olson, and Gausman. The Athletic’s Keith Law recently redrafted the 2012 first round, and he believes the Twins made the right choice because Buxton has “the best chance of anyone on this list to put up a 9-WAR season.” Buxton is a dynamic player when healthy, but injuries have been part of his career narrative. Minnesota’s next pick in 2012 was the 32nd overall selection, and the team took Jose Berrios out of high school in Puerto Rico. With supplemental picks, the first round included 60 picks that season and Berrios has accumulated the 11th highest WAR. Minnesota got some tremendous seasons from Berrios as he developed into one of baseball’s most consistent pitchers. Last year, the Twins dealt Berrios to the Blue Jays for two prospects, and the early returns may favor the Twins. Besides the team’s picks at the top, the Twins made multiple picks later in the draft that have developed into solid big-league arms. Outside of Berrios, three other pitchers taken by the Twins have accumulated more than 1.5 WAR in their careers. Taylor Rogers was taken in the 11th round and has accumulated 6.7 WAR in his career. Tyler Duffey (1.7 WAR) and JT Chargois (1.6 WAR) have had ups and downs, but both have been key relievers for playoff teams. The 2012 Draft will be remembered for the players taken at the top, but that doesn’t tell the entire story for Minnesota. The organization’s first two picks are still impacting the team a decade after being drafted. Also, the club was able to identify players later in the draft that have been valuable relievers. Overall, it is one of the most successful drafts in recent memory. Do you think the Twins made the right decision by taking Buxton? What do you remember about this draft? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

While we spend most of our time focusing on the players on the current Minnesota Twins squad, it’s fun to check in on our “old friends” every once in a while. The moniker, “old friend”, has been common amongst Minnesota Twins fans when talking about players who used to play for the hometown squad but have since moved on to play for a different team. Whether or not you continue to root for old friends after they leave the Twins, it’s always a fun exercise to see how they are doing. Here are top performing “old friends” thus far in 2022: 5. Josh Donaldson .764 OPS 5 HR 15 RBI 0.9 fWAR While mired in controversy over the past couple of weeks, it’s still hard to deny that Josh Donaldson is having a strong year in pinstripes after being traded to the Yankees this past offseason. Aided by an average exit velocity that ranks in the 89th percentile, the Bringer of Rain owns a 123 OPS+ while continuing to provide above-average defense at the hot corner. For many, Donaldson isn’t much of an “old friend”, but he cracks the top-five for top performing ex-Twins in 2022. 4. Kyle Gibson 48 IP 3.94 ERA 1.1 fWAR Coming in fourth for top performing ex-Minnesota Twins in 2022 is someone who flashed ace potential at times with the Minnesota Twins but never quite put it all together, Kyle Gibson. After earning his first all-star appearance last season, Gibson is having himself another solid year on the mound with the Phillies in 2022. With a FIP of 3.22, Gibson has actually been even better than his surface stats suggest. 3. Taylor Rogers 21 1/3 IP 1.69 ERA 17 Saves 0.6 fWAR It was a controversial trade this offseason when the Twins traded away Taylor Rogers in exchange for Chris Paddack, and has become even more controversial after the start that Rogers has had in 2022. Across 21 appearances this season, Rogers has allowed an earned run in just two of those appearances. Rogers leads all of baseball with 17 saves this season and has quickly become one of the most dominant relievers in all of baseball. 2. C.J. Cron .942 OPS 13 HR 37 RBI 1.5 fWAR C.J. Cron only spent one season with the Minnesota Twins, but since he departed following the 2019 season, he has been excellent. In 2022, though, he is having the best season of his career with an OPS+ of 155. Cron is tied for third in all of baseball with 13 home runs and is tied for sixth with 37 RBI. 1. Martín Pérez 56 1/3 IP 1.60 ERA 1.7 fWAR Martín Pérez was not good as a member of the Twins, posting a 5.12 ERA in his sole season with the club in 2019. In 2022, though, he has pitched like the best starting pitcher in all of baseball. Pérez’s 1.60 ERA leads Major League Baseball, and his 1.7 fWAR ranks third among starting pitchers. He hasn’t been garnering many strikeouts, but he has yet to allow a home run this season and is allowing a career-low 2.2 walks per nine innings. Who do you think has been the best performing ex-Minnesota Twins player in 2022? Which of these players would you add to the current Minnesota Twins roster if you could? Leave a comment and start the conversation! View full article

On Wednesday we got news that two months after acquiring him, Chris Paddack had undergone the 2nd Tommy John surgery of his career. Despite the obvious disappointment, the book on this trade is far from written. It was always fair to question trading away Taylor Rogers before a season in which the Twins were expected to compete. Chris Paddack did his part to quiet those worries through his first four starts, pitching to a sub 4.00 ERA and looking like a solid mid-rotation, arm who was controlled for three years. Now that he’s certain to miss the remainder of 2022 however, frustrations with the trade have begun to boil over again. It’s worth considering however that several pieces of this trade have yet to play out. The full details of the trade involved the Twins shipping out Rogers and Brent Rooker and receiving Paddack, Emilio Pagán, and eventually player to be named later Brayan Medina. While the Twins have used Pagán in high leverage despite his tightrope act, the backbone of the trade was Rogers for Paddack. Admittedly this comparison is heavily skewed in the Padres favor, at least in the short term as we’re left with Pagan vs Rogers. Looking at the full picture however, we have a ways to go before declaring this trade a disaster. The mainstream belief at this point is the Twins traded their fan-favorite invaluable relief arm for five starts of Chris Paddack. What people seem to have missed is that in acquiring Paddack, the Twins were actually acquiring his services through 2024. This fact doesn’t help them currently, but it provides plenty of time for the right-hander to make good on the Twins attempt to acquire a valuable starting pitcher. Tommy John is still a dreaded announcement in baseball, but it’s not the boogeyman it once was. Even for players who have required it multiple times as Chris Paddack has, full recoveries have become the norm. This list includes Nate Eovaldi, Mike Clevinger, Drew Rasmussen, and many more. In addition to the overall effectiveness of the procedure, more and more cases have emerged where the pitcher returns in a much shorter time than what would have been expected even just a few years ago. Look no further than the Twins own Blayne Enlow in the minors who’s back on the mound after tearing his UCL about 10 months ago. In Paddack’s case, no timeline has been announced yet. The word on the street however is the Twins almost exclusively defer to a new procedure when it comes to their players which expects a 9-12 month recovery rather than the traditional 12-18. We may not have anything concrete yet, but it’s entirely possible that Chris Paddack is still able to return for a good chunk of 2023 and all of 2024. The context of the trade in which the Twins are now without the starting pitcher they wanted and without their best bullpen arm isn’t great, but in the aggregate, this trade still has the potential to be lopsided in their favor when all is said and done. Despite a high walk rate which we hope Pagán will iron out, he appears to have improved in multiple areas including strikeouts and limiting hard contact, and he’s controlled for two years. Paddack looked to have made improvements prior to injury that he could hopefully continue building off when once again healthy. Make no mistake, I loved the value of this deal at the time it was announced and personally I’d hit the “undo” button at this point. Any time a player is acquired who almost immediately loses their entire season to injury, it’s safe to say things didn’t go your way. It’s also entirely fair to question why the Twins were even engaging in talks for a pitcher with a well known partially torn UCL. That being said, there is no “undo” button. There’s nothing wrong with saying this trade is bad, but such statements have to include an understanding that we’re far from done here. If Paddack comes back and provides a year and a half of the performance he showed in his first few starts, the Twins still nailed this one overall, even if it may cost them in 2022. So what do you think? Is there still the potential we look back at some point and say the Twins won this trade? Without Rogers for this year does it even matter? Let us know below. — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Right before the 2022 Major League Baseball season was set to commence, the Minnesota Twins decided to shake up their roster. Flipping closer Taylor Rogers to the San Diego Padres for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan, it’s now on the latter to provide value for the season ahead. It’s understandable that a controllable starter like Chris Paddack may have been available for a lesser return given his elbow issues. Unfortunately, they reared their head just a few starts into 2022 and now it appears he’ll undergo surgery to fix the problem that was already there. Emilio Pagan was hardly a throw-in, however, and despite his 4.83 ERA last season, he’s just a few years removed from being one of baseball’s more dominant relievers. Pagan, who recently turned 31-years-old, posted a 2.31 ERA in his lone season with the Tampa Bay Rays. Acting as their closer that year, he recorded 20 saves and worked 70 innings. His 12.3 K/9 was a career-high, and the 1.7 BB/9 was near a career-low. The 3.30 FIP suggested it was all pretty solidly rooted in advanced statistics as well. Of course, he wasn’t the same pitcher the past two seasons for the Padres, and that’s likely why they were willing to upgrade the back end of their pen. For Minnesota, needing to replace Rogers, Pagan would immediately become an option should he find a way to harness his former glory. Things started ugly for the Twins' new closer as he took the loss in his second appearance, and blew a save in just his third try. Through his first six outings this year Pagan had just a 7/6 K/BB and appeared to be doing a tightrope act each time he took the mound. Since that point though, Pagan has pitched another six innings and has not allowed an earned run. His 8/4 K/BB is more manageable and the ERA is down to 1.54. While the free passes remain an issue, he’s worked around the danger thanks to a career-best 5.4 H/9. It’s not as though Pagan simply lost the ability to find the zone. He’s an established veteran with more than 200 Major League innings under his belt, and in that time he surrendered just a 2.3 BB/9. The gaudy 7.7 BB/9 comes from something else, and he was asked about it following his fifth save of the season. Having basically always been a two-pitch pitcher, and really only one when you consider the secondary offering is a version of the other, Pagan changed his repertoire this season. He’s traditionally been categorized as a fastball and slider guy, although most reporting systems call his secondary offering a cutter. This offseason he added a splitter and it’s drastically different from what he already brings to the table. During Spring Training, and still then with the Padres, San Diego manager Bob Melvin said, “He’s coming up with a new pitch. He’s throwing a split(-fingered fastball) a lot. … I think a third pitch will serve him well. Typically, a bullpen guy, especially late innings, is more of a two-pitch guy. But I think a third pitch will be good for him. Fastball, sliders are mostly hard (stuff). This is kind of a slower pitch, goes in a different direction, and gives the hitter something else to think about. He’s thrown it in a game and feels confident about it.” To this point in 2022, the splitter has been a focal point for Pagan. He’s thrown it over 17% of the time, and it’s drastically changed the cutter usage. In developing a new pitch and then utilizing it in games, it’s understandable there would be some hiccups and likely control or command issues. As he continues to find comfort with the offering, the walks should subside back down to his career norms. Rocco Baldelli has a very good thing going at the back of his pen right now. Whether going with rookie fireballer Jhoan Duran, or veteran-tested Pagan, he’s got capable arms to mix and match for any situation. The more Minnesota can lean into both of them shutting down the opposition, the better they’ll find themselves positioned to close out games in routine fashion. View full article

There was no Twins game last Thursday, but there was still activity at 1 Twins Way as the team completed a trade with the Padres. Heading to San Diego was Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker and a whole bunch of cash. Coming back to Minneapolis was Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan and the always interesting “player to be named later.” So far - and understandably so - there has been very little information released on the future mystery player aside from one tweet from Darren “Doogie” Wolfson. Anything beyond that is complete speculation. But speculation can be fun, so let’s take a closer look at who the Twins might be adding in the next few weeks. To give me an idea of players who might be included, I plugged the trade into Baseball Trade Values. Obviously, this isn't an exact science, but it’s probably the least biased way to come up with a list of names. Plugging in the trade as it happened, the simulator had the Twins giving up 4.9 more value points than it received. The potential inclusion of any of the Padres top prospects would tip the scale heavily in the Twins favor, but there are a number of prospects in the next tier who could make sense as this “player to be named later.” Typically, when a trade like this occurs, the teams agree to a list of players and conditions. It could be as simple as having six names on a list and the Twins get to pick one name off of that list on May 1. It could be something more complex. It could be - and this case might be - something that makes a whole lot of sense. Let’s take a look at some names that may be on that list. And why the Twins may want them. Ranked from least likely to most likely to be a Twin, in my opinion. Joshua Mears, Outfield. Ranked in the system’s Top 10 by both MLB.com and Baseball America, Mears was drafted in 2019. His power is his calling card. He already has two home runs in three games this season in high-A, but has struck out in eight of his twelve at bats. As the top-rated prospect on my list and - in my opinion - the likelihood that the Twins prefer pitching, I think the chances of Mears being the player is small. Samuel Zavana, Outfield. Zavana checks in on BA’s list at #12, but missed MLB.com’s. Zavala fits the profile of what the Twins like with a scouting report that includes things like “regarded as one of the best pure hitters” in his signing class and having “long possessed a knack for finding the barrel.” The 17-year-old would make a ton of sense. But in trying to sleuth this out, Zavala will be playing in the complex league this year, so the Twins won't even get a chance to scout him between now and then. So if it were to be him, why not just include him in the original deal? Victor Acosta, Shortstop. Acosta, like Zavana, will be playing in a complex league this summer. Ranked #11 by MLB and #12 by BA, I put Acosta a notch above Zavana because he has more defensive value. But, again, if you can’t see him in the next month, wouldn’t you have wanted to get him into your complex as soon as possible? Robert Gasser, Pitcher. Gasser is ranked #9 on both sites after being selected in the Competitive Balance, B Round in the 2021 draft. After getting 15 innings of pro ball under his belt last year, Gasser, a lefty, made his High-A debut last week. It was brutal. Four walks, four hits, seven outs. I don’t think a single game is a reason the Twins wouldn’t trade for him though, I think it’s because the Padres would be less likely to include him on the list. The next guy is a complete wild-card who technically fits Doogie’s profile. Adrian Morejon, Pitcher. Morejan, 23, is a highly-regarded Cuban left-hander who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s a “non-roster” guy because he’s on the 60-day Injured List, so he wouldn’t require a 40-man move. Morejan has 16 games of MLB experience under his belt and spent the last five seasons ranked in Baseball America’s Top 100. While not expected to return to the mound until later this season, it’s been a year since his surgery. Being a PTBNL could just be a way of giving the Twins a chance to get a greater feel of how his recovery is going. Remember, this trade all came together very quickly. For what it's worth, even though there are over 100 potential players for this to be, I’d bet on it being one of these three over the field. Full disclosure: I like taking long odds. It’s not often successful. Victor Lizarraga, Pitcher. Signed out of Mexico last year and ranked #13 by MLB and #15 by BA, Lizarraga is pitching in Low-A ball at 18 this year. He would make a ton of sense as a lottery ticket in a trade such as this. He’s a fastball/curveball/changeup pitcher with shaky command. Kevin Kopps, Pitcher. Kopps, currently in AA, ranks #14 on BA’s list and #16 on MLB’s list. Drafted in the 3rd round last year, Kopps spread his 14 ⅔ innings over three levels, striking out 22 and notching three saves. Kopps is serving as a closer using one big weapon: a breaking ball that has been nearly unhittable. Some call it a cutter, some call it a slider. Baseball America calls it the best slider in the system. The Twins, if I had to guess, would deploy whatever it is in the same way they used Sergio Romo’s and Tyler Clippard’s sliders. Kopps, who turns 25 soon, has Tommy John in his rearview and could soon be a bullpen option for whatever team he is on. Jarlin Susana, Pitcher. Susana is ranked #18 by MLB.com and the just-turned-18-year-old has an impressive and imposing 6’ 6”, 235-pound frame. Signed in January by the Padres for $1.7 million, Susana has a big-time fastball that can touch 100 and a slider that is next best pitch (among the four he throws). So what separates him from the other complex league pitchers? Because of when he signed, he can’t be traded until later this month. ? Maybe it’s a coincidence. Or maybe Susana is the player to be named later. (The Padres also added many other international free agents in mid-January who become eligible to be traded later this month. Among them are two 16-year-old infielders, Yendry Rojas and Rosman Verdugo. Neither are as highly regarded as Susana, though. Rojas, from Cuba, is a very good hitter with decent size (6' 1", 190) and speed and Verdugo, from Mexico, was considered the top prospect from Mexico.) What do you think? Who do you prefer? View full article

The day before the Minnesota Twins were set to kick off their 2022 Major League Baseball season, closer and clubhouse veteran Taylor Rogers was traded. There was internal confidence in this bullpen, and it seemed warranted, but Rocco Baldelli has had the group out of whack at times. One of the easiest things to complain about regarding a manager is their bullpen usage. There was always going to be opportunity for that this season, given the relative uncertainty of the group, and Baldelli was always going to need time to let arms filter into their spots. Only a couple of weeks into the season, there’s no reason for any severe hand-wringing, but a couple of observations opportunities have presented themselves. Jhoan Duran is maybe the most exciting arm in Minnesota Twins pitching history. He’s certainly not going to be the best, but the velocity is unmatched and may forever be. It’s something this organization had never seen before and also a great outcome from the trade that sent Eduardo Escobar to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Early returns have suggested he can be an impact thrower at the back end of the Twins bullpen. He may even have taken over the closer role for the departed Rogers by the end of the season. But should he be a multi-inning reliever? That’s questionable, and it’s something worth keeping an eye on. Working two innings against the Red Sox, there was a notable dip in Duran’s velocity when he came back out. It’s not as though he wasn’t still throwing hard, but the consistency in which triple-digits were reached wasn’t maintained. Some arms are more impacted by a total number of pitches, while others could be deterred more by coming off the bench for a second inning. Whatever Duran’s role going forward is, the goal will be to get the best and most effective version of him. Only two lefties are available in Minnesota’s bullpen as it’s currently constructed, and Caleb Thielbar is probably the better of them. Not only is he a great story, but the 3.00 ERA and 10.6 K/9 over the past two seasons have been suggestive of a great arm. Even with that production, he’s still best suited in ideal spots, and that’s why Baldelli’s decision to go with him in the 8th inning of a one-run game against two righties against Boston was odd. Minnesota’s offense was non-existent on Easter Sunday, but trailing by just one looking to get their final at-bats, Thielbar was tasked with protecting a lead. He came in against Kike Hernandez and was also set to face Xander Bogaerts. Both of them are solid hitting right-handers, and they did predictable damage. Giving up four runs generating just a single out, Thielbar was ineffective in a suboptimal situation. That outing leaves us to question what the back-end of the bullpen will look like going forward and how Baldelli will choose spots. Tyler Duffey was given the first save opportunity and blew it, but he’s a good arm even with declined velocity. Jorge Alcala isn’t going to factor in for some time, and Emilio Pagan could step into those high-leverage shoes. Joe Smith is a tested veteran who has previously performed well on good teams, and the aforementioned Duran will always be in the mix. It seems that this front office is intent on avoiding paydays for relievers, but the pen they have constructed is a solid one. Give Baldelli some time to decide how he and Wes Johnson will run these arms out, and I think there’s an opportunity for it to be one of baseball’s better units. View full article

The day before the 2022 Major League Baseball season began, the Minnesota Twins traded their closer, Taylor Rogers. Long before that move, it appeared that Jhoan Duran would make the Opening Day roster, and closer or not, it seems he may be everything the organization has been looking for. I won’t fault you if you don’t remember Juan Morillo. He pitched for Minnesota in 2009 and threw just two innings. He gave up a home run and five runs before never seeing the big leagues again. What he did do in that brief six-out appearance was throw a pitch clocked at 101.1 mph. After his departure, Minnesota has seen just two other pitchers register a triple-digit fastball. Brusdar Graterol, now with the Dodgers, checked in at 101.9 mph, and current reliever Jorge Alcala, who went on the IL on Tuesday with elbow inflamation, once touched 100.9 mph. Until now. Duran has been groomed as a starter for the Twins throughout his development. Across 82 minor league games, 80 of those appearances have come in a start. It’s gone well to the tune of a 3.99 ERA and consistent double-digit strikeout per nine numbers since 2018. If there’s been a problem, it’s been in the form of health and durability. Duran has never pitched more than 115 innings during a season, and last year for St. Paul, he was limited to just 16 innings while battling shoulder issues. Fast forward to this spring, and it seemed both beneficial and planned that Duran would throw out of the bullpen. The fireballer was used in relief, whether by design and adding to their internal group or through necessity to protect his workload. After a strong showing down in Fort Myers, Duran is now three innings into his Major League career. The Dominican has a 4/1 K/BB ratio while allowing just two hits. Aside from the eye-popping velocity, which has averaged 100.9 mph this season, his Statcast numbers compare beautifully across the league. His current 19% whiff rate would’ve ranked 4th among qualified relievers last season, just behind Liam Hendriks and ahead of Devin Williams. He’s avoided hard contact and missed barrels. Although Duran hasn’t yet forced batters to chase outside the zone, he’s kept them off-balance by simply being unhittable. The problem for the opposition is that Duran isn’t just firing straight fastballs either. His splinker is a unique offering, and that pitch has averaged 96.1 mph. The amount of movement and run he gets on both pitches creates an unfair situation for opposing batters when trying to both meet the pitch and connect optimally. It’s in the repertoire that we find his most significant reason to remain in relief. Again, the sample size is tiny, but Minnesota has turned its weapon into a two-pitch pitcher. He’s throwing the slider, a pitch the organization definitely believes in, just two percent of the time. His curveball offering has shown up 19% of the time but remains an off-speed secondary to combat the velocity. Each time Duran has stepped onto the mount this season, it’s been guaranteed that the radar gun will light up. He turns a Statcast readout red and gives the Twins something they haven’t had. What his current or future role becomes in the bullpen pecking order seems to be determined, but closer or not, knowing he’s a weapon is a significant value add for both Rocco Baldelli and Wes Johnson. In the age of mixing and matching arms situationally, someone like this could be matchup proof, and at just 24-years-old, that’s massive. These Twins aren’t the ones you’ve been used to in the past. It’s a different front office and now an organization that employs both the highest-paid infielder and one of the hardest throwers in the league—what a time to be alive. View full article

So the day before the season starts the Twins traded away the head of their bullpen and supposed closer. Taylor Rogers made up half of the projected fWAR of the Twins bullpen per Fangraphs. What was the front office thinking? By now we’re all probably approaching the end of the grieving stage of losing Taylor Rogers in a massive Opening Day deal that brought Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan to Minnesota. That being said, it’s probably time to consider why on earth the Twins would trade away their star closer at the start of a season in which they intend to compete. The Pursuit of Value By now we’ve come to expect the Twins front office to always search for value above all else when they’re making any kind of deal. In fairness, their successes across the last year are few and far between, but it’s easy to see the thought process they’re operating from. In parting with Rogers, the Twins give up one year of a relief pitcher who may not even finish the season with the team if things fall apart before the trade deadline. In return, they receive a rotation-ready starting pitcher in Chris Paddack who’s under control for three years in addition to reliever Emilio Pagan who’s under control for two years. They did of course also ship out Brent Rooker, but by all accounts, he was likely on the verge of getting cut loose regardless. When looking at pure value, it’s hard to argue against this trade. There’s almost no scenario where Rogers amasses more bWAR, fWAR, or whatever measurement you can find in his lone season in San Diego than Paddack and Pagan will in Minnesota across their five combined years. The math is certainly on the Twins' side for this trade. This however doesn’t tell the whole story as it misses the context of the Twins parting with their best reliever right before a 2022 season where they may desperately need him Relievers are Unpredictable Another core value of the Falvine era, the Twins simply don’t value relief pitchers highly. And to be honest, they probably shouldn’t. Relievers often burn bright for a few years before fading away. We see it year after year whether it’s Alex Colomé just stinking it up out of nowhere or Trevor Rosenthal succumbing to injury. Pitchers as a whole are always risky, but historically speaking relievers are particularly fickle. Taylor Rogers may repeat his incredible performance in 2022, in fact, I’d bet on it. That being said, he did suffer a significant finger injury in 2021. Although he’s recovered and was looking great in the spring, he’s now into his 30s and the odds of a recurrence or even a new injury grows ever stronger. Is that reason for the Twins to look to actively dump their closer? No. But it does at least help explain why Rogers wasn’t untouchable in trade. In addition to the risk of Rogers' performance or health slipping, it’s entirely possible several other arms step up in a big way to fill the void. Between pitchers such as Jorge Alcala who appeared to break out in the second half or newly bullpen-bound Jhoan Duran sitting in triple digits, it’s not hard to find candidates to take the lead in this group. Between AAA and the existing bullpen, there are several options to get some looks in high leverage and I see several taking the baseball world by storm in 2022. This group is undisputedly more talented than the bullpen the Twins fielded at the end of 2021 who by the way were rock solid without Taylor Rogers in the mix. To be clear, there’s nothing wrong with hating this trade. The self-anointed “competitive” Twins roster just got a huge downgrade in their bullpen on paper no matter how you shake it. In addition, this could have been avoided had they just been more aggressive in signing legitimate starting pitching pre-lockout. Even for one year of Taylor Rogers, the Twins are taking a gamble on Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan bouncing back. It’s one that’s not so different from the many bets the front office made last season that left them bankrupt. That being said, aside from the personal attachment that comes with losing a homegrown star like Rogers, it’s easy to understand why the Twins made this deal. There’s a decent chance that we look back on this trade as a “win” for the Twins, and there’s a non-zero chance it can turn out to be an absolute home run. Should the Twins have stood pat with Rogers or perhaps asked for more in return? Do you think this deal will work out for the Twins in the long run? Let us know below! View full article

While Opening Day was bearing down on the Minnesota Twins, weather delayed things just a bit. With the schedule now set to open on Friday, the front office continued working as they acquired Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan from the Padres in exchange for closer Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker. What does that do to the roster? First and foremost, the first guy Minnesota gave up was a pillar in the clubhouse for the Twins. If there’s a way for this to go pear-shaped, it’s in disrupting chemistry we’ve heard talked about so highly coming into the season. Rogers was the Twins MLBPA player rep and worked with the owners through the lockout. He handled the media well and was extremely well-liked by his peers. Through a baseball lens, Rogers is 31-years-old and coming off a finger injury that limited him to just 40 1/3 innings last season. He was sure to be traded at the deadline, but that came off the table when he hit the Injured List. Appearing in his first All-Star game, a neat experience in his home state of Colorado, Rogers posted a 3.35 ERA with a 13.2 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. When healthy, he’s been among the best closers in baseball the past few seasons, and his 2.52 FIP tells the tale there. Somewhat of a footnote in this deal, Rooker goes to the Padres after being beaten out by Kyle Garlick for the final outfield spot. He shined in seven games for Minnesota during 2020, but the .688 OPS last season simply wasn’t going to play. When he was drafted 35th overall back in 2017, it was immediately known he would be a bat-only player. San Diego will put him in a corner outfield spot, but he’s incredibly stretched there. Although the power certainly plays, there’s a lot of swing and miss in his game as well. A fresh start could prove beneficial for him. Dealing Rogers the day before Minnesota takes the field may be risky, but the return absolutely justifies a move. Chris Paddack comes to Minnesota as a former darling rookie. He posted a 3.33 ERA across 26 games for the Padres in 2019. He averages 94 mph on his fastball, and outside of 2020, he’s posted strong FIP numbers. The 5.07 ERA in 2021 wasn’t pretty, but the peripherals suggest there’s more to unlock. Although his strikeout numbers have fallen a bit the past three seasons, he’s also lowered his walk and home run rates. There’s swing-and-miss stuff to be exploited here, and pitching coach Wes Johnson will immediately get to work on pushing those tweaks. Paddack is under team control through the 2024 season from a contractual standpoint. This alone may be the most significant boost for Minnesota. At just 26-years-old, the Twins can mold Paddack throughout the next three seasons and hope to push his stuff towards the top-end of their rotation. He would join Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober as arms already locked in for next season. Making just $2.25 million through arbitration this year, Paddack’s expense is minimal. Joining Paddack and adding back into the Twins pen is Emilio Pagan, who will be with his fifth team in six big league seasons. Last year, his 63 1/3 innings with San Diego was nearly career-high, but it came with a career-worst 2.3 HR/9 and a 4.83 ERA. Pagan’s 5.22 FIP suggests he was actually worse than the surface numbers, but just two seasons ago, the Tampa Bay Rays had him looking like one of the best pen arms in the game. Under team control next season, Minnesota can opt to keep him around for another year. The addition of Paddack obviously shuffles the rotation. As it was currently constructed, Ryan was set to be followed by Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer. Paddack will need to slot in somewhere, and the most likely candidate to be bumped in my mind is Ober. He could go to a long relief role out of the bullpen until the point in which a starter begins to struggle. Bundy may be the lowest ceiling talent of the group, but given he was signed as a starter for $5 million early in the offseason, I’m not sure he’s the guy that would get moved around. A ripple effect of this situation is what happens with Josh Winder. He looks to have made the big league roster but was already going to be pitching out of the bullpen in a long relief role. Now with Ober in that mix, too, there are a lot of innings needed to keep starting arms fresh, and the hope is that there’s only so many to go around. Obviously, Pagan will slot in somewhere during the middle innings. He’s not a back-end option for Minnesota at this point. Replacing Rogers will be some combination of Tyler Duffey, Jorge Alcala, and Jhoan Duran. With Duran’s stuff playing so well this spring, it seemed sensible to use him immediately in relief rather than continuing to develop him as a starter. He now may be the frontrunner for the closer role if Rocco Baldelli and Johnson opt to keep Duffey and Alcala in their previously established late-inning spots. It would be a big ask for the young prospect, but the reality here is that Minnesota appears intent on developing their pen arms and not paying handsomely in relief. That’s certainly a viable strategy when you’ve seemingly made it work with a handful of guys. When viewing this from the top, the Twins now pay less for three years of a starter with upside and a reliever who has been very good than they did for a closer coming off an injury and slated for free agency with a bat tossed in. It’s hard not to see this as a win for Minnesota, and while the volatility of relief arms remains immense, betting on the horses you have is definitely not a bad stance. Time to play ball. View full article

The Minnesota Twins acquired Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan from the San Diego Padres for Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker. Here are my thoughts on the trade. View full video

The Twins have not shown a propensity to invest heavily in their bullpen. Instead, their preferred approach is to gather a wealth of interesting, flexible options and sort through them during the season. It can work, but as they learned last year, sometimes the learning experience can be very costly. Projected Bullpen: Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcalá, Jharel Cotton, Joe Smith, Jhoan Duran, Danny Coulombe Depth/Prospects: Griffin Jax, Jhon Romero, Jovani Moran, Juan Minaya, Cody Stashak, Jake Faria, Yennier Cano, Drew Strotman, Lewis Thorpe, Trevor Megill, Ronny Henriquez THE GOOD During the first three months of the 2021 season, Twins relievers ranked 26th in the majors in the fWAR, 27th in FIP, and 25th in WPA. During the last three months, they ranked 13th, 15th and 4th in those respective categories. You might not have noticed it, due to the team's total irrelevance after May or so, but the bullpen improved dramatically from the first to second half. It was night and day. And it's not the first time we've seen this pattern play out. Back in 2019, Twins relievers ranked 10th in the majors in fWAR and 12th in FIP over the first three months, then led all of baseball in both categories the rest of the way. The front office and coaching staff have shown they can make this work: creating depth, then sorting through it until you find the right mix you can trust. Meanwhile, when looking at how poorly this regime's biggest bullpen splashes have panned in Alex Colomé and Addison Reed, who both looked like relatively safe plays, it's easy to understand why they'd opt against pouring investments into established commodities. There's a lot to like here. Taylor Rogers has consistently been one of the league's most effective late-inning relievers since 2018, and his sterling performance this spring helps alleviate concerns around any lingering effects from last year's finger injury. Tyler Duffey and Caleb Thielbar have proven to be rock-solid setup men. Jorge Alcalá offered real signs of optimism with his 2.88 ERA and .195 BAA last year after the All-Star break, playing a huge role in the bullpen's second-half turnaround. Joe Smith and Jharel Cotton were nice veteran pickups for the middle innings. There are also a some wild cards in the mix adding another level of intrigue. Chief among them is Jhoan Duran, who has been dazzling people with his incredible stuff this spring. He appears to be healthy and throwing at his best while the Twins are transitioning him into a full-on relief role. It's a perfect storm. He looms as a monster difference-maker in this pen. I've written about Griffin Jax as a guy whose stock could skyrocket in a relief role, and like Duran, the team is poised to tap that potential in short order. Jovani Moran has flashed good stuff from the left side. And any of the club's various pitching prospects – many of whom were discussed in our SP analysis – have a chance to impact the bullpen, especially with the likelihood that Minnesota will be looking for length and multi-inning options. THE BAD Last year we learned about the downside of sorting out a bullpen during the season: those early lesson through failure can be extremely costly. By the time Colomé pulled it together and the Twins moved on from some laggards, the relief unit had already played a huge role in tanking their season. This is the nature of the bullpen: it is a fickle beast, and yet so dramatically influential to the outcome of a season. Great bullpens carry teams into the playoffs and beyond. Bad bullpens can put an otherwise decent squad out of the running by June. This year's unit for the Twins really feels like it could go either way. That's always somewhat true, given the volatility of relief pitching, but the variability feels especially high right now. Rogers was at his best before going down last year, but we need to see him keep on cooking. At 31, his age is becoming as much of a regression factor as his injury. Duffey's performance last year included a bunch of ominous signs – most notably a drop in velocity and a HUGE drop in whiff rate. Alcalá has had his moments but feels hard to trust given the inconsistency. And let's keep in mind, this represents their first line of defense. Once you get past these established contributors, you're looking at mostly unproven prospects and minor-league signings. I'm not going to wring my hands over the lack of spending at this position (where the sum total of salaries will barely surpass that of White Sox closer Liam Hendriks alone), because relief free agency becomes such a hazardous game of darts, as we've seen. If the Twins can identify the right guys, implement the right tweaks, and pull the right strings, they'll be in good shape. Unfortunately, last year was not a great confidence-builder in their ability to do so. At least not until too late. THE BOTTOM LINE Lots of talent. Lots of question marks. The Twins have shown in the past they can handle a bullpen – they methodically developed the league's best in 2019, and it carried over to 2020 where they tied Tampa for the AL lead in bullpen fWAR – but last year's unraveling dimmed their shine. It's a big "prove it" year for Wes Johnson, Pete Maki, and the entire Twins pitching braintrust. Was 2021 a blip or a breakdown? Catch Up on the Rest of Our 2022 Previews: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field Position Analysis: Center Field Position Analysis: Right Field Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher View full article

Last winter, the Twins brought in Alex Colome to serve in a late-inning role, but he failed miserably. Now, Taylor Rogers is returning from injury, so what’s the team’s late-inning bullpen pecking order? Some questions surrounded Rogers returning from a finger injury that ended his 2021 season. Rogers has looked strong this spring, so there may be little to worry about for the 2022 campaign. However, the team will need to have a contingency plan if his finger injury acts up or if he suffers another injury. Here is how the team will likely use the bullpen in the late innings. 1. Taylor Rogers, LHP Rogers was a first-time All-Star during the 2021 season following a first-half where he posted a 3.35 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and 54 strikeouts in 37 2/3 innings. It was a solid first half, but it was hardly the best version of Rogers. From 2018-19, Rogers pitched nearly 140 innings with a 2.62 ERA, a sub-1.00 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9. Before his injury, Minnesota was exploring trade options for Rogers, and there was no guarantee the team would offer him arbitration this year. He is entering his final year of team control, so he needs to prove that he can be a dominant back-end reliever as he hits free agency for the first time. As a 31-year-old, it might be his only chance at a big payday, but the Twins have other options if Rogers isn’t successful in 2022. 2. Tyler Duffey, RHP Duffey was one of baseball’s best relievers entering the 2021 season as the Twins used him to get out of plenty of late-inning jams. From 2019-20, Duffey pitched 81 2/3 innings, and he struck out 113 batters with a 0.94 WHIP. Last season, he struggled for the first time since 2018 as he posted a 3.18 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP. His strikeout rate dropped from 11.6 K/9 in 2020 to 8.8 K/9 in 2021. Besides his lack of strikeouts, there were some concerns with the number of hard hits and his change in pitch usage. However, Duffey seems like the best candidate to take over the closer role if Rogers misses time or is ineffective. 3. Jorge Alcalá, RHP Alcalá has been on the cusp of a breakout for multiple seasons, and there were signs he started to break out last season. He decreased his fastball usage and saw a big jump in his changeup usage. His fastball tends to be up, so his improved changeup has played even better down in the zone. Last year in the second half, he managed a 2.88 ERA, 0.36 HR/9, 2.01 FIP, and a 32% K%. If these trends continue, Alcalá may be evolving into Minnesota’s future closer, especially if he can lower his career .843 OPS versus left-handed batters. 4. Caleb Thielbar, LHP Thielbar has been a surprise contributor to the Twins bullpen over the last two seasons as he has become one of the team’s most reliable arms. Over the last two seasons, he has a 3.00 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and 99 strikeouts in 84 innings. He turned 35-years-old earlier this year, and he has previously been close to retirement. Outside of Rogers, he is the lefty with the most late-inning experience, so it will be intriguing to see how the Twins use him this season. Does he get the opportunity to earn his first big-league save? Dark Horse Candidate: Jovani Moran, LHP Moran was the Twins Daily 2022 Minor League Reliever of the Year, and his changeup has the potential to make him unhittable at the big-league level. He struck out nearly 41.8% of batters in the minors this season, and he will look to transition those numbers to the Twins. Like Alcalá, there may be some growing pains on the way to being a dominant late-inning arm. With Duffey and Rogers heading to free agency, Alcalá and Moran are part of the team’s long-term bullpen plans. How do you think the Twins will use the back-end of their bullpen this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The arbitration deadline for players and their teams to exchange offers is Tuesday, and the Twins have a handful of players who are arbitration eligible. This article will review this process and the Twins who are eligible for arbitration. Nick Nelson broached this topic months ago in the Offseason Handbook but much has changed since then. At the start of the offseason, the Twins had 12 players who were arbitration and added a thirteenth and fourteenth via a couple of offseason transactions we'll review later in the article. So when it’s all said and done, the Twins are down to just three eligible players who are set to enter arbitration ahead of Tuesday's deadline. As a reminder, the arbitration process gives the ability for players who have reached three years of service time to negotiate their salary. The exception to this, known as “Super Two”, is for the players who are in the top 22-percent of service time but below three years. This came into play for Twins utility, Luis Arraez, who just barely eclipsed the super two threshold. Finally, there are three ways to avoid arbitration: The player and team come to an agreement in terms (these are the offers due on Tuesday) The player and team agree to a contract extension to “buy out” the arbitration years. Most recently, the Byron Buxton contract extension did this. The player is designated for assignment (DFA) or outright released by the team. Before diving into the three eligible, let’s review the other eleven who are no longer arbitration eligible for the 2022 season. Byron Buxton signed a seven year, $100MM contract extension at the end of November effectively buying out is final year of arbitration. Jharel Cotton, Caleb Thielbar, and Tyler Duffey avoided arbitration in 2022 by agreeing to one-year deals. Cotton was claimed off waivers from the Rangers while Thielbar and Duffey were significant contributors to the Twins bullpen in 2022. Mitch Garver is still arbitration eligible but it’s just not for the Twins after being traded to the Texas Rangers for (former Twins great) shortstop Isaiah Kiner-Falefa and right-handed pitcher Ronny Henriquez. Jake Cave signed a one year, $800K deal but then was DFA’d and outrighted to AAA-St. Paul a week later. Danny Coulombe and Juan Minaya were DFA’d and re-signed to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. Willians Astudillo, Rob Refsnyder, and John Gant were all DFA’d and released by the Twins. Astudillo and Refsnyder ended up getting Minor League pacts from the Miami Marlins and Boston Red Sox, respectively. Gant ended up signing a deal overseas with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of the Nippon Professional Baseball League in Japan. This leaves us with the three Twins remaining who are arbitration eligible, one of which was acquired on the flurry of post lockout moves made by the club. Luis Arraez Our Offseason Handbook has him projected to make $1.5MM this year if the two sides cannot come to an agreement by the Tuesday deadline. Taylor Rogers The Twins lefty closer is projected to earn $7MM, per our Offseason Handbook. Another nuance of the arbitration process is that a super two player, which Rogers was post-2018, can then be eligible for a fourth year of arbitration. This is the case for Rogers in 2022 and, unless a contract extension buys him out, will be the case for Arraez in 2025. Gary Sanchez The newly acquired Sanchez is projected to make $7.9 MM by MLBTR and $7.5MM by Spotrac, and is in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Also worth noting is that Gio Urshela agreed to a $6.55MM pact with the Yankees prior to being traded and still has one year of arbitration remaining in 2023. Of the three arbitration eligible players, would you like to see any of them extended to buy out their remaining years? Let us know in the comments! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article