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He's probably more valuable to the Twins than any other team. Find out why. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Perhaps no Twins player draws more ire than Max Kepler; the long-time right-fielder has disappointed over his eight-season MLB career as—with the exception of 2019—his offensive numbers fall below his potential. Season after season, the German product produces a .225/.317/.422 line, flashes an offensive profile with upside and fails to fulfill that promise in the following season. It’s madness. Naturally, the restless fans remain exhausted. They don’t boo—this isn’t New York, after all—but if there were some sort of passive-aggressive method to indicate disapproval, Minnesota fans would embrace it. Instead, we read yearly articles detailing all the teams interested in Kepler, watch him enter the season as a Twin, and endure the same style of season he has played since 2016. It’s madness. But maybe the Twins should hold onto Kepler for one more year. It’s crazy—madness, even—but it could make sense. One of the strongest arguments for Kepler’s exit rests on the internal options. The Twins possess about 20,000 left-handed hitting outfielders capable of catching a flyball at an adequate level, rendering Kepler’s skillset redundant in a sea of similarity. Those options may be weaker than we believe; neither Alex Kirilloff nor Trevor Larnach has played more than 80 games in an MLB season, so far always succumbing to an injury that cuts their year short. Matt Wallner may have the bat, but his outfield flopping netted him -4 DRS over just 138 2/3 MLB innings, 14th worst 91 players with 130 innings in right field. DRS is a cumulative stat. That’s bad. Nick Gordon may be best suited for the role, but he is more valuable as a jack-of-all-trades positionless weapon, not a locked-in everyday player. Kepler, on the other hand, is an elite defender in right field and can cover center at an above-average level, perhaps not an easy skill to find with Target Field’s unusual characteristics in that section of the field. Maybe he’ll never break through the 100 wRC+ glass ceiling, but he’ll also never outright bust with the bat. And, sigh, there might be optimism for Kepler’s bat. WARNING. DISCUSSION OF MAX KEPLER’S BATTED BALL DATA BELOW It’s folly to analyze Kepler’s hitting; his BABIP baffles the wisest of sabermetricians, and this author swore an oath years ago never to attempt to understand it. More innovative writers have tried and failed, and there’s a good chance the answer to his mysterious hit tool lies wherever Jimmy Hoffa is buried. But let’s go. Kepler’s under-the-hood numbers improved drastically in 2022; his max exit velocity reached 113.8 MPH, his xwOBA stood in the 74th percentile of all batters, and he cut his already-low strikeout rate while holding steady with his walks. His Baseball Savant page has enough red to drive Joseph McCarthy crazy. Even in his weirdest batting seasons, Kepler’s batted-ball data never looked this pristine; there’s a chance he truly experienced bad luck in 2022. If those improvements are here to stay—it would be weird if he suddenly fell off at 30 years old—the new limits to shifting combined with his changes in 2022 may finally unluck his offensive profile. Remember all those times he hit a sharp groundball directly into short right field for an out? Those days are gone; instead, he’ll earn a well-fought single for his efforts, not an out. It makes sense to deal Kepler; the team has plenty of backup options, and if the team is pinching its pennies to sign Carlos Correa and a top-tier starter, Kepler is the obvious candidate for heaving. The logic is there. But there are worse things than having a guaranteed solid player on your roster, and Kepler’s defensive acumen will be difficult to replace. Maybe this sounds like Stockholm Syndrome, but Kepler should stay. View full article

On Sunday, the eyes of the baseball world will be upon San Diego and the Winter Meetings. Let’s take a look at what the Minnesota Twins need to accomplish this offseason. Obviously not all of it will be completed over the next week, but it is an opportunity to get all parties in one location, able to have discussions. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Here we are in the first days of December, and there are some fans who are already wondering if this has been a lost offseason for the Twins. Aside from the standard roster cleanup at the end of the season and the 40-man roster additions, the only moves made have been bringing back minor-league free agents Jair Camargo and Elliot Soto. It is also important to note that the annual Winter Meetings are set up for league meetings, rules meetings, minor-league meetings and more. It is also a place where people will bring their resumes and meet with teams, hoping to get jobs or internships. Those looking for jobs in baseball will be dressed in suits and ties. GMs and media are often seen in business casual, if not shorts and a beach button down shirt. If the season started today… I think that it is always important to know the current status. That way, we are able to look at where the roster stands, and see where there are weaknesses and strengths. This is all stuff that the front office does, though much more in-depth and thoroughly than any of us. But for us, it’s where we’re starting. If the season started today, what would the roster look like? C: Ryan Jeffers 1B: Alex Kirilloff 2B: Jorge Polanco 3B: Jose Miranda SS: Kyle Farmer LF: Trevor Larnach CF: Byron Buxton RF: Max Kepler DH: Luis Arraez More 40-Man Options: Edouard Julien, Gilberto Celestino, Mark Contreras, Matt Wallner, Kyle Garlick, Injured: Royce Lewis. Upper-Level, Non-40-Man Roster: David Banuelos, Jair Camargo, Alex Isola, Chris Williams, Michael Helman. Austin Martin, Brooks Lee, SP: Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Bailey Ober RP: Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Caleb Thielbar, Griffin Jax, Jorge Alcala, Emilio Pagan, Jovani Moran, Trevor Megill. More 40-Man Options: Jordan Balazovic, Blayne Enlow, Brent Headrick, Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands, Louie Varland, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson Injured: Chris Paddack, Matt Canterino Upper-Level, Non-40-Man Roster: Evan Sisk, Randy Dobnak,Austin Schulfer, Kody Funderburk, Steven Cruz, Cody Laweryson Roster Needs 1.) Shortstop - Obviously the big talker this week, as it has been the last month or more, is what will happen with Carlos Correa? While the Twins have made offers, Correa is going to have many offers. In my opinion, he’ll get 10 years from someone, and I would guess that he would get a number very close to the $325 million that Corey Seager got just a year ago. The Twins love Correa. Correa clearly enjoyed his time with the Twins and developed some very strong relationships in the Twins organization. It may simply come down to money, and the fact that teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, Phillies, Braves, and Cubs are other teams looking to sign a shortstop, it will be very hard for the Twins to compete with those teams. Could he be willing to get creative to stay with the Twins? So what is the fallback plan? The Twins were aggressive in bringing in Kyle Farmer. If he’s the Twins opening day shortstop, the Twins will be fine, but that is the proverbial floor that they have set. They clearly want Correa. If they don’t get him, I think they’ll continue their conversations with Scott Boras in hopes of signing Xander Bogaerts. You could argue that dollar-for-dollar, that would be a better investment. Bogaerts is only a year younger than Correa, has had a remarkable career in Boston already, and will likely make $100 million less than Correa. The Twins front office clearly has a strong relationship with the Boras agency, so while odds may be low, it’s OK for Twins fans to have some hope in bringing one of them in. 2.) A top starting pitcher - Forced to fill innings and starts in 2022, the Twins gave opportunities to several young starting pitchers. Joe Ryan was the Opening Day starter, and when Bailey Ober was healthy, he pitched well. With the emergence of Varland, Henriquez, Winder, and Woods Richardson, the need to sign veteran fifth starter options to eat innings should not be there. That is especially true when looking at the eight-figure contracts signed last week by Mike Clevinger and Matthew Boyd. Can the Twins count on their starters being healthy in 2023? While it would surely be nice to assume that Kenta Maeda will return from Tommy John and pitch like he did in 2020, that’s probably not fair. Tyler Mahle made just four starts before his shoulder issues continued, but if he’s healthy, he would likely be their top pitcher. Sonny Gray ended the season in the Injured List with a hamstring issue. Bailey Ober had two long stints on the IL with leg issues. If healthy, this rotation can be pretty solid. Maybe no number one starters, but potentially a couple of solid #2s and a couple more solid #3s. The youngsters can be the as-needed starters, working to improve their readiness in St. Paul. If the Twins can add a true #1 starter, that would be huge. The problem is Jacob de Grom inexplicably got five guaranteed seasons from the Rangers. Justin Verlander will either pitch for Houston again or in New York. The only other ace available in free agency is lefty Carlos Rodon, an injury-risk in his own right. Is that the move? Risks are very high with free-agent pitchers. Between one-third and one-half of the 30 teams in the league will be after the southpaw. How strong a starter could the Twins hope for in free agency? Is the trade route a possibility for the Twins? 3.) Backup catcher - I know, the front office and others have said that they would like to add a catcher to split time with Ryan Jeffers or even be a starter. I’m admittedly a big believer in Jeffers. I don’t see a big problem at all. For me, I much prefer they find a solid left-handed hitting catcher to start maybe 60 games while Jeffers gets the other 100 starts. Willson Contreras would be fun and provide strong offense, but I don’t think they need to spend four years and $80 million on a catcher. Christian Vasquez may get $10-12 million annually over a year or two.Both are right handed. Omar Narvaez makes a lot of sense. To a lesser degree, Tucker Barnhart might make sense. I would be fine with them. Honestly, I’d also be intrigued by the likes of Austin Hedges and Mike Zunino, or Roberto Perez or Kevin Plawecki. Really, once you get past Contreras, there aren’t really many catchers that can hit, so they should grab another strong defensive catcher that is well respected. As I mentioned, I’m a big believer in Jeffers, and that includes his bat. Yes, it would be good to see him hovering around .240 instead of .200, but he has the power to hit 20 or more homers if he gets 100 starts. How many catchers can do that? Other Things to Consider Where should the Twins payroll be? While there aren’t great or exact public records for MLB team’s books, if they are to be in the player preferred 48-52% of revenue, the Twins should probably be somewhere between $150 and $165 million in 2023. Will the Twins be able to trade veteran Max Kepler? Should they? Are there other veterans that could be traded? Maybe even Jorge Polanco? Will the team add some solid veteran relievers? Adding even just one more reliable arm for the late innings would help and provide depth for the unforeseen. Or, could they move some of their intriguing starting pitcher prospects to the bullpen to work in roles where they can pitch 2-4 innings at a time? The Twins tendered a 2023 contract to Emelio Pagan, but they will certainly try to trade him during the offseason. Can they get anything for him? Do the Twins need to add speed to their roster in the offseason to take advantage of some of the new rules coming in 2023? Will the Twins make a Rule 5 draft pick? Could they potentially lose players in the Rule 5 draft? They protected four players - and traded one of them - but there are players that the Twins could lose. To this point, the Twins have added a solid MLB shortstop (and a potentially very nice utility piece) in Kyle Farmer. They have a lot of work to do and a lot of difficult questions to answer. Shortstop will certainly be the focus, but will any of the Big 4 free agent shortstops look to sign this early in the offseason? The Twins should also be looking at high-level starting pitching, and they would be wise to add at least one more reliable reliever. Finally, they need to add a reliable catcher to team with Ryan Jeffers. Of course, the Winter Meetings are often more of a time for rumors and conversations to set things up for the next few weeks. The Twins did already make one move this offseason that we all hope will have a huge impact on the organization. In hiring head athletic trainer Nick Paparest, the hope is that the Twins will be able to avoid the massive amount of lost time due to injuries. If that can happen, it could play a huge role in the Twins success in 2023. Some of this may be answered over the coming days in San Diego, and talks will continue right through spring training. It should be a lot of fun. View full article

Let’s discuss some Minnesota Twins topics, including the latest on Carlos Correa, the upcoming Winter Meetings, early prices on free agent starting pitchers, Max Kepler trade ideas and Joe Pohlad. View full video

There are multiple ways to address a team's flaws during the offseason. A quick examination of the Twins' 40-man roster shows that the club has a corner outfield conundrum. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Every front office spends the offseason trying to create a roster that can be competitive for multiple seasons. This takes a balancing act that includes established veterans, young prospects, and supplemental players. Minnesota has already changed the 40-man roster this winter by trading Gio Urshela and adding Kyle Farmer. These moves help the team set a floor at multiple starting positions, but there is still room to improve. Corner outfielders are one area where the Twins have a surplus, with nine outfielders on the 40-man roster. Minnesota hopes Byron Buxton can make most of the team's starts in centerfield, leaving eight players for the two remaining outfield spots. Luckily, many of the team's other outfield options have defensive flexibility. Let's take a look at the team's options. Projected Starters: Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach Kepler is one of baseball's best outfield defenders, providing significant value even if his bat has recently taken a step back. There is a chance that banning the infield shift will help Kepler's numbers, but it's likely only to generate a few extra hits per season. There is also a chance the Twins will attempt to trade Kepler before the season starts because of the younger and cheaper options available. Injuries have limited Larnach to fewer than 91 games in each of the last two seasons. Last season, he finished 11th on the team in WAR, even though he only played 51 games. He can play both corner outfield positions, but his defense is more limited than some of the team's other options. Entering his age-26 season, Larnach must prove he can stay healthy and produce at the big-league level. Bench Options: Gilberto Celestino, Nick Gordon, Mark Contreras, Kyle Garlick Celestino provides the Twins will insurance for Buxton in center field, but he isn't far removed from being considered one of the team's top outfield prospects. He's only played 51 games at the Triple-A level because the Twins have had an outfield need over the last two seasons. He destroyed the ball last May by hitting .364/.426/.418 (.844), but his second-half OPS dropped to .582. Celestino will play significant innings, but it seems in the team's best interest for those innings to be in center. Gordon surprised many with his 2022 performance by hitting .272/.316/.427 (.743) with a 113 OPS+. Kepler was the only corner outfielder to accumulate more WAR last season, and his OPS+ was 20 points lower than Gordon's. Among AL left fielders, Gordon ranked fifth in SDI, which was impressive considering he had limited innings at the position entering the year. Entering 2023, Gordon will likely continue to fill a utility role. From a roster construction standpoint, it will be intriguing to see if Garlick and Contreras can survive the offseason on the 40-man roster. Together, they form a natural platoon, with Contreras being a lefty and Garlick being a righty. However, they are lower on the team's depth chart at both corner outfield spots, so they seem unlikely to make the Opening Day roster. They each have minor league options remaining, so they can offer organizational depth. Other Outfield Options: Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner Kirilloff was considered one of the team's best prospects before injuries limited him in his first two big league seasons. For his career, he has hit .251/.295/.398 (.694) with a 94 OPS+, but a wrist injury has impacted his power production. Kirilloff underwent a unique wrist surgery in August, and few professional athletes have had this procedure. If healthy, Minnesota's best defensive alignment likely has Kirilloff at first base. Wallner powered his way through the upper minors last season with a .953 OPS. Minnesota waited until the middle of September to call him up, and he posted a 105 OPS+ in 18 games. He is one of the best power-hitting prospects to come through the Twins organization over the last decade. His stock continues to rise, and the team will likely make him the first man up from Triple-A when there is an injury. It's great to have depth at any position, but it's easy to see where the Twins may have too many corner outfield options. Can the team deal one or more of these players to fill other needs? Or are there enough injury concerns to keep all eight players on the roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

While far from a major problem, the Twins could use a shake up in the outfield headed into 2023. Could a journeyman on the Brewers be the answer? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports The Twins are full of talent in the outfield but are a bit left-handed heavy. It’s also begun to feel like long-time Twin Max Kepler’s time is running out in Minnesota. Effectively swapping him out for a right-handed platoon option seems like a relatively small move that could pay off big time for a Twins roster which is fighting for a return to relevance. Hunter Renfroe has never been a big name in his seven seasons but has been nothing less than a solid player for some time now. In 2022 he had a career season, slashing .255/.315/.492 in Milwaukee. Having already bounced between four teams in his seven years, could yet another trade help return the Twins to the promised land? Complementing the Corners Between Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon and Matt Wallner, the Twins outfield is overly left-handed, and we’ve seen teams abuse that late in games the last few seasons. Only Byron Buxton and the recently re-signed Kyle Garlick balance things out, and recently neither has been reliable in terms of their availability. Renfroe would not only be a welcome addition in terms of production (.258/.350/.492 vs LHP in 2022), but in terms of reliability. The aforementioned Buxton and Garlick combined to play just 158 games in 2022. Renfroe played in 125 even being used in somewhat of a platoon role in Milwaukee. While Garlick in particular fills the “lefty masher” role, he’s been an easy out in his career against right-handed pitching and has been healthy enough to play in just 102 games for the Twins the last two seasons. Renfroe on the other hand was 20% above league average against same-handed pitching in 2022 while still filling the same role Garlick does, with an injury history that suggests he’d be more available on a day-to-day basis moving forward. While Garlick and the Twins recently agreed on a contract for 2023, the amount is miniscule, and if they could swing a trade Renfroe, being an upgrade over Garlick is an easy argument to make. The Twins would be well positioned with a lefty masher who’s capable against righties and can fill in at either corner to complement their many left-handed options. It seems like a win-win. Change is Coming Though nothing is definitive at this time, there’s been some talk of Kepler’s time in Minnesota coming to an end. Filling his spot with someone like Renfroe makes too much sense. Nearing 30 years of age, we know what Max Kepler is. While capable of providing gold glove caliber defense, it’s safe to say this value is outweighed by his extremely limited offensive profile. Long understood to be an incapable hitter against left-handed pitching, Kepler has recently failed to post even league average offense against righties. Too often, his at-bat results in pulling a ball either straight into the ground to second or first base, or popping out to shallow right field. He has failed to adjust his approach at all, and is no longer even a league average hitter. Yet he’ll continue to start day after day due to his defense. A pivot to Renfroe adds so many dimensions to a Twins' lineup in need of a breath of fresh air. In addition to Renfroe’s superior bat, he was also worth six Defensive Runs Saved in left field and two in right field. A slight defensive downgrade is possible, but that step down will be far outweighed by the need Renfroe would fill in the Twins lineup. In terms of financial cost, the trade off also is not that restrictive. After making a bit under $8m in 2022, Renfroe will likely be due $10ish million in 2023. Assuming the Twins can find a home for Kepler’s $8.5m salary, it won’t cost them much. It’s also possible they could get creative and include a player such as Gio Urshela in a trade to the third base needy Brewers in a deal for Renfroe, which would unload even more money. With the Twins having high free agent aspirations at positions such as shortstop, the trade market may be the place to look for offensive help. With Teoscar Hernandez recently being traded for a 28-year-old reliever and a minor leaguer, a Renfroe trade continues to look more and more affordable. The Twins should be looking to shake up the outfield with a more diverse set of players. Renfroe may just be the answer. Do you agree? View full article

Mitch Haniger is an ideal candidate to add some right-handed thump to a lineup that lost its best right-handed hitter this offseason. Image courtesy of Steven Bisig - USA Today Sports The slow erosion that was the 2022 season has given way to guarded excitement as we enter free agency. The Twins have a true tabula rasa, with around $60 million to spend to get in the ballpark of last year’s payroll total. Much of the focus has centered on shortstop, catcher, and high upside starting pitching, understandably so. I’d argue a right-handed, outfield power-bat should be on the shopping list, too. Enter Mitch Haniger. Twins Need a Viable, Right Handed, Big Bat Haniger would serve several purposes in the Twins lineup; let's address a few. He’d replace the thump that somewhat absorbs losing Carlos Correa. While there are rumblings that the Twins are preparing to offer Correa the largest contract in franchise history, it remains unlikely the Twins will add one of the uber-shortstops this winter, in which case, they need a right-handed power bat. Additionally, the Twins need to bring balance to their outfield. Byron Buxton and Kyle Garlick combined to play 158 games for the Twins in 2022 (many at DH). Beyond these two players, the Twins outfield options (Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner) are left-handed. Haniger Doesn’t Break the Bank Let’s deal with some elephants in some rooms. First, Haniger does not have a good health track record. Since 2018, he’s alternated playing close to 160 games, or 60 games in a season. While you may have already stopped reading given the Twins recent track record with injuries, they hired a new athletic trainer and it’s a new season. In 2022, Haniger’s missed time was largely due to a high ankle sprain. Haniger’s injury history also means a more reasonable price point. MLB Trade Rumors projected his contract to be 3 years, $39 million. In the last two seasons in which Haniger has remained healthy, he’s put up 7.3 fWAR. That’s plenty good value. It’s unlikely, but if Haniger didn’t like the offers he received early in the offseason, perhaps he’d take a two-year deal at a higher AAV (2 years, $32 million). At just 31, that seems feasible. Massive Upside Lastly, let’s talk upside. Haniger is a monster when healthy. He’s also a pull side right-handed hitter, which would play well at Target Field. In his major league career, Haniger has shown significant consistency, putting up a career .476 SLG, 122 wRC+, and .811 OPS. If he’s on the field, you know what you’re going to get. In Haniger’s last two full seasons, he’s combined for 60 home runs, so an expectation of 30 in 150 games seems reasonable. Lastly, Haniger adds some experience to an extremely young core. There’s a lot to like. Clearly, much of what the Twins accomplish this offseason will depend on their solution at shortstop. If they fail to land one of the premier options, a pivot to Haniger as a high impact bat, and an elite front of the rotation starter would soften the blow for me. What do you think of Mitch Haniger as a fit for the Twins? Who are other options you’d consider as big bats beyond the elite start shortstops this offseason? View full article

It’s big bat week at Twins Daily, and there’s undoubtedly no bigger bat than Joey Gallo when it comes to power potential. He had a poor 2022 season, but at just 29 years old, does a deal with the Minnesota Twins make sense? Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports Realistically the Twins are inundated with left-handed bats in the outfield. Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler, and Trevor Larnach all hit from that side of the plate. With Byron Buxton as the lone right-handed hitter, manager Rocco Baldelli could use more from the right side of the dish. Given what Gallo’s market could be, and the banning of the shift, it may make sense to bring him in. There’s been more than a few instances in which the hulking slugger has had fun at Target Field. During his All-Star Futures Game experience in Minnesota, Gallo blasted a home run through a truck window beyond the right field wall. Since then, he has hit some tape measure shots to nearly the same part of the park, including one for the New York Yankees this season. Primarily Gallo has played in the corner outfield, but despite his immense power, his athletic ability has been shown in centerfield as well. Gallo won Gold Gloves in both 2020 and 2021 while rating out well defensively. He may not be Buxton in center, but few people are. He can also play the designated hitter role and has handled first base plenty. Despite 2022 going so poorly with the Yankees, and not much better with the Dodgers, he’s only a year removed from a 121 OPS+. Despite the goofy statistics we saw during the pandemic-shortened 2020, Gallo actually performed much better in 2019. His 145 OPS+ was a career-high and marked a run of three straight seasons in which he was above league average. There were more than a few times last year when Baldelli’s lineup stalled out. Despite boasting plenty of internally developed hitters, and names such as Carlos Correa and Gary Sanchez, far too often runs were hard to come by. Manufacturing runs wasn’t something Minnesota was good at a year ago, and they doubled down on the poor showing by failing to hit many home runs either. For the first time in his career, Gallo will face defenses that are unable to shift him as they have. He may see all three outfielders play on the right side of center field, but the infielders will need to remain in their given positions. For a guy with a strong launch angle and hard-hit rate, he could see additional hits dropping in, and raise his overall numbers to places we haven’t yet seen. What Gallo’s market looks like will be interesting. He made just over $10 million last season, and despite coming off the down year, someone will certainly see an opportunity for a fresh start. The massive power potential is there, and the plate discipline isn’t bad either. What do you think? Would you take a shot on the former All-Star? View full article

The Twins must make multiple moves if they want to contend in 2023. Here is the blueprint I would follow for the perfect offseason that sets up a rebound to contention. Image courtesy of Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's front office has a clear shopping list to improve the Twins for 2023. Shortstop is the team's most significant need, especially with Royce Lewis out until the season's second half. Luckily, there is a strong crop of free-agent options, but plenty of other teams could be looking for an upgrade at shortstop. Also, there is always room to add more frontline starting pitching and to supplement other spots on the roster (catcher, right-handed power bat). Here is how the Twins can address all of those needs. Lineup: Correa Returns to Supplement Youth Movement There have been a few times in Twins history when the club had the flexibility to sign one of baseball's best players. Carlos Correa was tremendous during his first season in Minnesota, and the Twins should spend big to have him return. It will likely take a nine or ten-year deal for over $300 million. The Twins can be creative with their contract offer to Correa and frontload the deal, so the end of the contract is more palatable. To create more financial flexibility, I have the team trading Gio Urshela and Max Kepler for prospects. Minnesota will turn third base over to Jose Miranda, and a trio of young outfielders is waiting to take over in the corner spots. Omar Narvaez is the other essential addition, as he offers a natural platoon with current catcher Ryan Jeffers. Bench: Adding Right-Handed Power Trey Mancini is the most significant addition to Minnesota's bench as he offers an upgrade compared to Kyle Garlick. The Twins lineup is loaded with left-handed hitters, and Mancini adds a corner outfield option that is right-handed. Nick Gordon and Gilberto Celestino proved their value during the 2022 season, and Jeffers can switch to a platoon role. Rotation: Adding an Ace Minnesota has many starting pitching options for next season, but there is no true ace at the top of the rotation. The Twins' front office needs to go out of their comfort zone to sign Carlos Rodon to a similar contract that Robbie Ray signed last winter (5-years, $115 million). There have been concerns about Rodon's health in the past, but he's been one of baseball's best pitchers over the last two seasons. His addition also adds more depth to the rotation for when injuries eventually strike. Bullpen: Internal Options Spending money on the lineup left little room for changes to the bullpen. Kepler or Urshela could be used to acquire a package that includes a potential bullpen arm. However, the Twins are getting back Jorge Alcala, and there are other young options to add to the mix. Bailey Ober and Cole Sands will be needed in the rotation sometime next season, but they can be used to piggyback Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle to start the year as they return from injury. Minnesota will trust Jorge Lopez to return to form and can be relied on in critical late-inning situations. Other players will shuffle between St. Paul and Minneapolis, but getting rid of Pagan will help the club from the season's start. Final Payroll Minnesota's 2022 payroll was around $142 million, depending on the source. The team will see a slight bump in payroll next year, especially if the front office can justify signing Correa and Rodon to long-term deals. Some of the dead money mentioned below will also be tied to last year's payroll, giving the team more flexibility. Is this the best possible outcome leading into the 2023 season? Twins Daily also allows you to make your own offseason blueprint. Feel free to create your own roster and share it in the forums with an explanation. View full article

Minnesota failed to win any Gold Gloves this season, but there were plenty of improved defensive performances. A respected fielding metric from SABR helps illustrate the team's surprising proficiency with the glove. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric developed by the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) is called the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, MLB has used SDI as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are the final rankings for the 2022 campaign. Pitcher (AL Ranking): No Twins Pitchers Qualify Minnesota needed pitchers to throw more innings to qualify for the SDI leaderboard. Former Twin Jose Berrios has been known for his athletic ability, which helps him to field his position. He finished tied for fifth in the AL. According to SDI, Cleveland's Shane Bieber ranked as the best fielder, and he won the Gold Glove. Catcher (AL Ranking): Gary Sanchez 0.6 SDI (12th) Sanchez took over the full-time catching duties after Ryan Jeffers broke his thumb. Minnesota worked hard with Sanchez to improve his receiving this year. Last season, he ranked as the AL's worst catcher with a -8.2 SDI, and there are four players worse than him in 2022. Jeffers' last posted SDI total was 2.0, but his injury meant he didn't have enough innings to be on the leaderboard. First Base (AL Ranking): Luis Arraez 2.1 SDI (1st) Arraez was a Gold Glove finalist at first base and led the league in SDI. However, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.was awarded the Gold Glove even though his SDI total was 1.9 points lower than Arraez. In the second half, Arraez moved from a -0.5 SDI to the league's best total while also playing through injury. It was a terrific defensive season for a player with limited first-base experience entering the 2022 campaign. Second Base (AL Ranking): Jorge Polanco -2.7 SDI (13th) Polanco gained rave reviews during his first season at second base in 2021, but the 2022 season was a different story. Only three qualified second basemen finished with a lower SDI. Polanco dealt with injuries during the season, which likely hindered his defensive performance. Minnesota can hope that Polanco is healthier in 2023 and can move back up the SDI leaderboard. Third Base (AL Ranking): Gio Urshela 0.8 SDI (T-5th) Urshela's defense was one of the most significant in-season improvements for the Twins. At the season's midway point, only one AL third baseman ranked lower than Urshela. He shot up the rankings in the second half and finished tied for fifth with Houston's Alex Bregman. Former Twin Josh Donaldson finished second among the AL's third basemen with a 7.3 SDI. Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa 1.6 SDI (9th) Correa was a Gold Glove finalist, but his SDI ranking was a roller coaster throughout the season. His early season defensive numbers were disappointing, but he slowly climbed the SDI leaderboard and ranked in the AL's top-five shortstops at the end of August. His bat was terrific in September, but he posted a negative SDI and dropped four spots in the rankings. Houston's Jeremy Pena, Correa's replacement, became the first rookie shortstop to win the Gold Glove. Left Field (AL Ranking): Nick Gordon 0.1 SDI (5th) Gordon surprised the Twins in multiple ways this season on his way to becoming the team's most-improved player. He'd played infield for most of his professional career, but Minnesota needed him as an outfielder. According to SDI, he finished the year in the top 5 among AL left fielders, which is a testament to his athletic ability. Center Field (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualified Byron Buxton missed time at the season's end and started nearly 37% of his games as a designated hitter. When healthy, he is among baseball's best defensive outfielders. The AL Central had arguably the league's best centerfield defenders, with Cleveland's Myles Straw and Kansas City's Michael A. Taylor finishing 1-2 in the SDI rankings. Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 6.3 SDI (2nd) Like Correa and Arreaz, Kepler was a Gold Glove finalist. Kepler slowly increased his SDI rankings throughout the season but needed more to catch Houston's Kyle Tucker. In the final rankings, Kepler was 0.8 SDI points behind Tucker, who was awarded the Gold Glove. Kepler's defense has become his calling card. Will the Twins look to trade him this winter? Which rankings above surprise you the most? Did Arraez get robbed of a Gold Glove? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Max Kepler is one of the longest-tenured Twins, but his time may be running out. With other young outfielders, will Minnesota look to trade Kepler? Image courtesy of Denny Medley, USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's roster has depth at multiple big-league positions, allowing the front office to exercise creativity this offseason. The current regime hasn't been afraid of making trades to solidify the roster and keep the team's winning window open as long as possible. As the offseason begins, it's essential to identify some of the team's possible trade candidates. What Did He Do in 2022? For the second consecutive season, Max Kepler posted a below-average OPS+. It's looking more like the 2019 campaign was a mirage regarding Kepler's offensive production. His average exit velocity, Hard Hit % and Barrel % all ranked in the 51st percentile or lower last season. While those numbers are disheartening, he does have good control of the strike zone as he ranks in the 78th percentile or higher in K%, BB%, Whiff%, and Chase Rate. Most of his value comes on the defensive side of the ball, where he ranked in the 97th percentile for Outs Above Average. In 2022, SABR's Defensive Index ranks Kepler as the second-best AL right fielder, which has him on pace to be a Gold Glove finalist. Why is He a Trade Candidate? Minnesota's outfield is quickly filling up with other younger outfield options that offer more long-term upside than Kepler. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner have emerged over the last three seasons and are entering the prime of their careers. There are no guarantees with any of these players, especially with Kirilloff and Larnach returning from injuries. Austin Martin is another prospect to consider in the outfield picture with an outstanding AFL performance. Other players like Nick Gordon and Gilberto Celestino will also get some opportunities in corner outfield spots. With all of these names, it's easy to see why Kepler can be expendable. What is His Trade Value? Kepler is scheduled to make $8.5 million next season, but his contract can run through the 2024 season. The Twins hold a $10 million option for 2024 with a $1 million buyout. Fans who have been frustrated by Kepler's offensive performance might not realize how valuable his defense has been in recent years. Over the last two seasons, FanGraphs pegs Kepler's value at $34.4 million while the team paid him $13.25 million. He is an above-average big-league player with multiple years of team control on a team-friendly deal, which has significant trade value. A contending team may look at Kepler as one of the last pieces to help their club take the next step. Minnesota isn't forced to trade Kepler, but this front office has touted its creativity regarding roster creation. With younger options emerging, it might be the perfect time to trade Kepler. The team might be able to acquire a pitcher to help next year's roster, or the club can add to a minor league system that has recently dropped in national rankings. To keep the team's winning window open, it's critical to move on from veteran players at the right time. The time might be suitable to capitalize on a Kepler trade. Do you think the Twins will trade Kepler? What kind of value do you think he has? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES -Gio Urshela -Emilio Pagan View full article

Thursday afternoon, Rawlings Baseball announced the 2022 Rawlings Gold Glove Award Finalists. The Twins had three players named as finalists. See who else was named a finalist and discuss how many are deserving. Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Keep up with which Twins, if any, are named 2022 Rawlings Gold Glove finalists. The finalists are being announced by Rawlings, approximately 5 minutes apart, so this article will be updated over the next hour. So check back often. In September, Cody Christie looked at which Twins players were on pace to be a Gold Glove finalist. Today, we find out which players are finalists. NL Pitchers: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Corbin Burnes (Brewers), Max Fried (Braves) AL Pitchers: Jose Berrios (Blue Jays), Shane Bieber (Guardians), Jameson Taillon (Yankees) Twins fans got to see the incredible athleticism that Berrios brought to the mound during his years with the Twins. It wasn't until after last season that he was first names a finalist. Can he win his first Gold Glove this year? NL Catchers: Travis d'Arnaud (Braves), Tomas Nido (Mets), JT Realmuto (Phillies) AL Catchers: Sean Murphy (A's), Cal Raleigh (Mariners), Jose Trevino (Yankees) NL First Base: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Matt Olson (Braves), Christian Walker (Diamondbacks) AL First Base: Luis Arraez (Twins), Vladimir Guerrero Jr.(Blue Jays), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees). Luis!! Coming into the season, Luis Arraez didn't have a full-time position. In fact, he wasn't in the Opening Day lineup. Since then, he has been named an All Star, won the Rod Carew American League Batting Championship, and now he has been named a finalist for Gold Glove at first base. NL Second Base: Jake Cronenworth (Padres), Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Brendan Rodgers (Rockies) AL Second Base: Andres Gimenez (Guardians), Jonathan Schoop (Tigers), Marcus Semien (Rangers) Jonathan Schoop has always been a solid defensive player, at least when he has played second base. The former Twins' defense has been acknowledged as a Gold Glove finalist. NL Shortstop: Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), Miguel Rojas (Marlins), Dansby Swanson (Braves) AL Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Carlos Correa (Twins), Jeremy Pena (Astros) The Twins star was a Gold Glove and the Platinum Glove winner a year ago. Can he repeat? Or will the kid who took his spot in Houston surpass him? NL Third Base: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Ke'Bryan Hayes (Pirates), Ryan McMahon (Rockies) AL Third Base: Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), Ramon Urias (Orioles), Jose Ramirez (Guardians) Twins fans may be a little surprised not to see Gio Urshela on this list. While he made a lot of very memorable, incredible plays, the defensive metrics are not quite as high on him. NL Left Field: Ian Happ (Cubs), David Peralta (Diamondbacks), Christian Yelich (Brewers). AL Left Field: Andrew Benintendi (Royals/Yankees), Steven Kwan (Guardians), Brandon Marsh (Angels) No Nick Gordon!? NL Center Field: Trent Grisham (Padres), Victor Robles (Nationals), Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks) AL Center Field: Cedric Mullins (Orioles), Myles Straw (Guardians), Michael A. Taylor (Royals) Again, it's a case of too few games and too few innings in center field for Byron Buxton. If he qualified, he would likely win every year. Maybe. NL Right Field: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), Juan Soto (Nationals/Padres), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks) AL Right Field: Jackie Bradley, Jr (Red Sox/Blue Jays), Max Kepler (Twins), Kyle Tucker (Astros). #MightyMax! After his defense has been snubbed in recent years, Max Kepler has been named a finalist for the AL Right Field Gold Glove. While he was unable to run during September, the defense he provided in right remained fantastic! NL Utility: Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks) AL Utility: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), Whit Merrifield (Royals/Blue Jays), Luis Rengifo (Angels) Daulton Varsho was named a finalist for the Gold Glove at two positions on the same day that the Twins named him the Dick Siebert Award winner for the Upper Midwest Player of the Year. There you have it. The finalists for 2022 Gold Glove Awards. The Twins have three Gold Glove finalists, Luis Arraez, Carlos Correa, and Max Kepler. How do you feel about that? Should others have been finalists? Should those three have been finalists? Share your thoughts below. View full article

Minnesota’s front office has focused on payroll flexibility, which means the team’s books are relatively clear for years into the future. Even with this flexibility, the 2023 season is shaping to be a make-it-or-break-it for the Twins. Image courtesy of Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have stressed the importance of keeping the Twins’ winning window open as long as possible. To do this, the club has restrained from giving out long-term contracts, which gives the team payroll flexibility for multiple years. Minnesota has traded for multiple players to supplement the roster, and many contracts are up at the end of 2023. That makes next year a make-it-or-break-it season. Possible Free Agent Pitchers Following 2023 Sonny Gray: It will be a no-brainer for the Twins to pick up Gray’s $12 million team option for 2023, but that means he is heading to free agency after next season. Minnesota surrendered their 2021 first-round pick to acquire Gray for multiple seasons. He performed well in his first season with the Twins as he posted a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in 24 starts. Injuries impacted multiple Twins starters, and Gray pitched under 120 innings for the first time since 2016 due to multiple IL stints. Kenta Maeda: Maeda signed a unique contract when he came from Japan. The Dodgers saw some abnormalities in his physical, so he signed a very incentive-laden contract. He pitched over 760 big-league innings before needing Tommy John surgery. Some thought he could pitch out of the bullpen in 2022, but Minnesota fell out of the race, and there wasn’t a reason to rush him back. Now, Maeda will spend the winter preparing to rejoin the Twins’ rotation in the final year of his contract. Tyler Mahle: Fans were excited when the Twins made an aggressive trade deadline acquisition of Mahle. His Twins tenure started poorly as he dealt with shoulder issues that ended his season early. Minnesota hopes rest and recovery this offseason will help Mahle to return to his previous performance level. If Mahle can’t return to health, it will be a tough pill to swallow for the current front office. This regime has a history of acquiring potentially injured pitchers, and Mahle is another name on that list. Possible Free Agent Position Players Following 2023 Max Kepler: Kepler’s future with the Twins is up in the air, with one guaranteed year remaining on his contract. Outside of 2019, his offensive numbers have been below average, but he continues to be one of baseball’s best defenders in right field. He has a team option for $10 million for the 2024 season, and FanGraphs pegs his average value at over $16.1 million for 2022. The Twins also have three young outfielders that need time in corner outfield positions, so this might make Kepler more expendable over the next two seasons. Gio Urshela: Urshela was one of Minnesota’s best performers throughout the 2022 season. He posted a 121 OPS+ and ranked fourth on the team in WAR. Many will compare him to Josh Donaldson, and Urshela ranked better than Donaldson in many offensive categories. Urshela’s big-league development hasn’t followed a linear path, but he has carved out a niche as an above-average regular over the last four seasons. He will be 31 years old for all of next season, and the Twins will have younger options to plug in at third base in the years ahead. Minnesota has some decisions to make, with many vital players heading toward free agency. Will the club try to sign any of the above names to extensions? Will some be made qualifying offers? If Minnesota stumbles, can they be traded before next year’s deadline? All signs point to the 2023 season being a critical year for the office as they need the club to take a step in the right direction. View full article