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Fans should take spring training stat lines with a grain of salt. Sometimes pitchers are working on one specific pitch, and there are times when batters are honing their swing. There can still be signs that a player will have a breakout season or start the season on a hot streak. As spring training ends, three Twins players are setting themselves for breakout seasons. Stats are through games played on March 26th. Jose Miranda, 3B/1B Spring Stat Line: 10-for-36, 3 2B, 5 HR, 5 BB, 3 K Miranda fought through an injury this spring with a sore shoulder that prevented him from playing defensively for multiple weeks. His swing didn’t suffer, with eight of his ten hits being for extra bases. Miranda entered camp after spending the winter slimming down and getting into better playing shape. He tired at the end of the 2022 season, and his on-field results suffered in the season’s final weeks. His improved results speak for themselves, as his five barrels were more than any other Twins player in camp. He had the highest percentage of hard-hit balls among Twins players, with over 100 pitches. The Twins are hoping Miranda can take over the full-time third base job, and his spring training may point to a strong 2023 campaign. Trevor Larnach, OF Spring Stat Line: 12-for-32, 2 2B, 4 HR, 3 BB, 5 K Larnach wasn’t a guarantee to make the Opening Day roster, but injuries to other key players and his spring performance have him poised to head north with the club. He has shown stretches of being a strong hitter during his first two big-league seasons, including a 1.077 OPS last May. MLB.com believes his breakout could be real because his 96.4 mph exit velocity this spring ranks seventh among the nearly 300 hitters with ten or more batted balls. Larnach is getting an opportunity on the Opening Day roster due to injuries to other players. He needs to prove he can stay healthy, which should help him continue producing at a high level. Otherwise, plenty of young hitters will be fighting for a big-league spot in St. Paul. Bailey Ober, SP Spring Stat Line: 4 G, 10 IP, 3 ER, 2 HR, 9 K, 3 BB Ober won’t start the season at the big-league level despite a tremendous spring training. When the Twins traded for Pablo Lopez, Ober became the sixth starting pitcher in what was expected to be a five-man starting rotation. When the Twins drafted Ober, his velocity topped out in the high-80s, but he’s made multiple improvements since 2017. So far this spring, his fastball has reached 94 mph, which helps his other pitches to increase his strikeout totals. His 6-foot-9 frame also helps him to release the ball closer to the plate, which gives batters less reaction time. Ober will have to bide his time in St. Paul, but he is one injury or poor performance from breaking back into the major league level. Which spring performance is much more likely to transition to the 2023 season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Last season, the lockout forced MLB to allow teams to begin the year with 28-man rosters. The lockout forced a shortened spring training, and baseball was worried about an increased chance of player injuries. For 2023, teams must narrow their final roster to 26 players. Players listed below with the ** are on the bubble for the final roster spots. Catchers (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers Like many teams, the Twins will employ a two-catcher system behind the plate. Minnesota signed Vazquez to a 3-year, $30 million deal this winter, so it seems likely for him to get a higher percentage of the playing time. In his last three full seasons, Vazquez has averaged over 130 games played, and he's been above average at controlling the running game. Jeffers has shown some pop in his bat this spring, with four of his six hits being for extra bases. Veteran catchers like Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner, and Chance Sisco were non-roster invitees this spring, and one of them will get an opportunity if/when there is an injury. Infielders (5): Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff**, Jose Miranda, Donovan Solano Jorge Polanco is the biggest name not listed among the team's projected Opening Day roster. Derek Falvey told reporters on Sunday that Polanco might not be ready to start the regular season on time. He has lingering soreness in his left knee, an injury that ended his 2022 season. Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano will see time at second base until Polanco is ready to return. Kirilloff is also not guaranteed to break camp with the club, but he has played in minor league games over the weekend. The Twins will likely give him regular rest to start the year, with Gallo and Solano starting games at first base. Top prospects like Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Edouard Julien can add depth to this group when needed. Outfielders (6): Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach**, Michael A. Taylor The Twins focused on adding strong defenders to the roster, with Gallo and Taylor being Gold Glove winners. Buxton slowly worked his way into game action this spring and should be as close to 100% as possible. Larnach wasn't guaranteed an Opening Day spot and entered the picture with Polanco's injury. There was some concern after Gordon suffered an ankle injury earlier in camp, but the injury won't hinder his availability at the season's start. Matt Wallner, the organization's reigning MiLB Player of the Year, is the team's best power prospect, and he will be waiting for a call-up back to the big leagues. Rotation (5): Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan Bailey Ober has been terrific this spring, but the Twins aren't going to utilize a six-man rotation. St. Paul's rotation is set up to be strong, with Ober, Louie Varland, and Simeon Woods Richardson at the top. The front office set up this rotation to have depth when a starter misses time with an injury. Three veteran starting pitchers (Gray, Mahle, and Maeda) are entering a contract year, so they will be eager to prove that previous injuries and age don't factor into their long-term value. The Twins project to have one of the club's best rotations of the last 25 years, but health questions will continue to follow this group throughout the season. Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagan, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran, Jeff Hoffman** Trevor Megill is the most significant change among this group from earlier in the offseason. The Twins optioned him to the minor leagues on Sunday, opening an opportunity for another pitcher. Megill had a rough spring by allowing eight earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Dennis Santana held a 40-man roster spot until the Twins lost him on waivers to the Mets at the end of last week. Minnesota signed Hoffman to a minor league deal at the end of February, and he has an 8-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in spring action. ZiPS projects feel like the Twins' bullpen is top-heavy, which makes sense considering the recent track record of players expected to be on the roster. The Twins used 39 pitchers last season so multiple relievers will make the trip back and forth between Minneapolis and St. Paul. How do you feel about the team's depth at multiple positions? Do you agree that these will be the 26 players coming north with the team? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Projected Starter: Trevor Larnach Likely Backup: Donovan Solano Depth: Nick Gordon, José Miranda, Byron Buxton Prospects: Edouard Julien, Aaron Sabato THE GOOD As the Twins' roster began to crystallize in late January, I presented a question with no obvious answer: who starts on Opening Day at DH? Granted, that's only one game, but the decision hints at a larger question about Rocco Baldelli's generally preferred option versus right-handed pitchers in the absence of Luis Arraez. The best answer I could come up with at the time was Larnach (if on the roster). He was a proven major-league bat and 26-year-old with no path to starting at any position on the field. He still kind of seems like the top candidate, thus his tentative listing as the projected "starter," but much has changed since then. For one thing, Alex Kirilloff's status for the start of the season has grown more uncertain, if not doubtful. No Kirilloff at first base probably means Joey Gallo is spending a lot of time there against righties. That could open left field for Larnach, although he's still got to vie with Gordon and Michael A. Taylor. The other development is Solano's signing at the outset of spring training. He's a 35-year-old known for his bat, and he mostly split time between first base and DH last year. Donnie Barrels is a natural fit for the job, and it wouldn't surprise me if he was the closest thing to a regular, should things go swimmingly elsewhere on the roster. To some extent, talking about best fits and ideal options for the Twins at DH feels pointless. The reality is that the starter in the lineup will be dictated by the day and its circumstances. With the club signaling a very conservative and measured approach under new head trainer Nick Paparesta, it stands to reason we'll see plenty of Buxton, Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco at designated hitter, even if if they're relatively healthy. Miranda might have been in line for a large share of starts here before spring shoulder issues set back his throwing. Ironically, the healthier the Twins roster is, the MORE I would expect to see veteran mainstays appearing at DH. The front office didn't trade for Kyle Farmer and Taylor – both everyday players over the past couple years – to have them sit on the bench. Baldelli would be thrilled to take advantage of the DH spot by getting his best players off their feet routinely while keeping the top of his lineup intact and his defense sound. That's Plan A. We've learned better than to count on Plan A. Once the Twins start inevitably delving into their depth, we start to see the potential downside at this position. THE BAD The bar for offense at designated hitter is high, as you might expect given the title. Placing a mediocre bat there is an easy path to competitive disadvantage. That was never much of a concern when the Twins were trotting out Arraez or Nelson Cruz regularly, and it won't be a concern if they're rotating their best hitters most days as a matter of maintenance. If those guys are unavailable, or playing in the field? Suddenly we're short on clear-cut premium bats. None of Solano, Larnach or Gordon are safe bets to be above-average hitters, much less Taylor or Farmer. That said, the balance of this bench does offer plenty of opportunity for platooning and optimization. THE BOTTOM LINE In 2022, the first post-Cruz season, Minnesota saw 10 different players make starts at designated hitter, and no one made more than 34. I would expect a similar distribution this year. If there's a dark horse candidate to lead the team in DH starts, it's Julien. His bat is way ahead of his glove at this point, but will be difficult to keep down in Triple-A should he keep raking the way he has at every single stop lately. The lurking presence of Julien, along with a current stable of rotating quality bats that can provide a platoon advantage almost daily, should ensure DH is at least a moderate strength for the Twins. Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field Position Analysis: Center Field Position Analysis: Right Field

Alex Kirilloff was once viewed as a key cog in the middle of the lineup for years to come, but his wrist injuries have prevented him from being that elite bat prospect analysts predicted. While it's still easy to see Kirilloff being a significant contributor to the Twins offense, it appears that may not begin on Opening Day, as he's "a little behind [the Twins] schedule." Kirilloff was likely slotted to play first base and designated hitter, and the Twins have put together a roster that provides ample flexibility to cover for his absence. Let’s look at some of the likely options if Kirilloff starts the year on the Injured List. Gallo to First, Gordon/Larnach to Left Field and Designated Hitter Joey Gallo has appeared at first base throughout spring training but last appeared there for significant innings in 2018. Gallo, to many Twins fans' chagrin, seems likely to be a regular, and his athleticism should enable him to play first, at least competently, especially given that he came up as a third baseman. With Gallo playing first base, Trevor Larnach or Nick Gordon can competently cover for him in left field, with others filling in as designated hitter, making this plan very workable. Based on Gallo playing first in spring training, this plan seems likely to be deployed against right-handed pitchers if Kirilloff starts the season on the injured list. This plan is suboptimal because of its defensive implications. For all of Gallo's struggles at the plate, his outfield defense has remained a strength. If it's not clicking at the plate and the Twins take him from the outfield, he is giving the Twins nothing. On the flip side, it allows Larnach and Gordon's potent left-handed bats to be in the lineup against right-handed pitchers. This likely lineup combination will work okay defensively but will most help the offense against righties. Solano to First Base Slotting in Donovan Solano at first base is another logical option that doesn't require any other maneuvers. The Twins signed Solano to DH and play first and second base. A right-handed hitter who is just below average against righties and above average against lefties, Solano is acceptable to play regardless of pitcher-handedness. This option keeps everybody at their natural positions, and Solano is a solid bat to have in the lineup, having been above average at the plate from 2019-21. This approach makes sense, especially if Solano's 2019-21 bat shows up in 2023. Farmer to Third, Miranda to First, Solano DH Rocco Baldelli will likely deploy some variation of this lineup combination against left-handed pitchers, even if Kirilloff is healthy. It creates all sorts of problems for left-handed pitchers. All three of these hitters crush lefties, whereas Farmer’s or Solano’s roles will likely be more limited when right-handers pitch. The defense of these players also makes the lineup combination extremely attractive for Baldelli. We will see how good Miranda will be at third, but given that Farmer was a decent everyday shortstop last season and had around-average defensive metrics at third, Farmer is likely the better defensive third baseman of the two. This lineup combination is an exciting possibility for a team that has struggled against lefties in recent seasons. Garlick Makes the Team Kyle Garlick is another right-handed bat that could play a role in replacing Alex Kirilloff. Garlick wouldn’t be a direct replacement for Kirilloff in the field or at the plate, as he has never played first and is a righty who thrives against lefties. However, replacing Kirilloff with him on the 26-man roster would provide an additional weapon for Baldelli to deploy against left-handed pitchers. Garlick can play designated hitter or one of the corner outfield spots, replacing Gallo or Max Kepler against left-handed pitchers. That would allow a righty-heavy lineup while Farmer moves to third, Miranda to first, and Solano to DH. Adding him to that group would give the Twins a potent lineup against left-handed pitchers, as Garlick was 28% above league average against lefties. On the flip side, Garlick is poor defensively. Beyond that, he would displace Trevor Larnach on the 26-man roster, weakening the lineup against righties - the far more common matchup. Julien is Promoted and Plays First Base Edouard Julien was optioned to AAA on Tuesday, so this isn’t happening for Opening Day, but as the season progresses, it’s a different story. Early in the season, this is the most fun and least likely of these four lineup combinations. It would require somebody else to be on the injured list or a surprising player being removed from the roster. With positive developments on minor injuries from Gordon and Larnach, the latter of whom seems to have fully recovered as he has played and homered in Sunday's spring training game, Julien making the roster would be shocking but also fun. Julien has yet to play much first (not even in spring training) but isn't a very good second baseman, so getting his bat in the lineup by putting him at first makes sense. In 2022, Julien crushed right-handed pitching at AA, displaying impressive power and on-base ability, showing the ability to hit the ball hard and walk a lot. He has continued his tear in spring training and into the World Baseball Classic, hitting a leadoff home run for Canada on the first pitch he saw of the tournament. The talk of Twins camp won’t make the team out of camp, but we can dream for an early promotion. As you know, Julien was optioned to St. Paul (and minor-league camp) earlier this week. That said, he could be recalled. While it's unlikely, it could theoretically happen. How do you see it playing out? Leave a COMMENT below.

Projected Starter: Joey Gallo Likely Backup: Nick Gordon Depth: Michael A. Taylor, Trevor Larnach, Gilberto Celestino Prospects: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Yasser Mercedes, Misael Urbina THE GOOD In many ways, Gallo presents the ideal corner outfield specimen. He's surprisingly fast for his build, bringing the range of a low-end center fielder to left or right (not unlike Max Kepler). He's got an absolute cannon arm, the mere threat of which helps to limit the opposing run game. Most years, he also brings all the slugging prowess you could ask for in a corner bat. In 2021, Gallo launched 38 homers and led the league in walks on the way to an OPS that was 21% above average – despite batting just .199 and also leading the league in strikeouts. That's always been Gallo's game: boom or bust, personified. His ability to bring plenty of boom made him a fairly consistent asset over a five-year span from 2017 through 2021, notching two All-Star appearances and averaging more than 3 fWAR per season. Gallo is a big, strong dude with a ferocious swing. His exit velocities and hard-hit rates consistently rank near the highest percentiles. With this signing, the Twins are clearly hoping to add a game-breaking factor to their offense that was amiss last year when Byron Buxton wasn't on the field. Even if he's the primary starter in left field, as planned in a best-case scenario, Gallo still figures to spend time at other outfield positions and at first base. This will open up LF at-bats against right-handers for Gordon and Larnach, who both probably profile best at this position. Against left-handers, Taylor brings an elite glove and capable bat. Kyle Garlick is also around, and he's a nice depth piece to have on hand for platooning purposes. Don't sleep on Austin Martin to emerge as an option here at some point if he can get healthy. THE BAD Minnesota's depth at the outfield corners is tough to knock. The front office added Gallo on top of what was already a strength. He brings real upside to the lineup if he's consistently playing in left alongside the likes of Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, and others. A more likely scenario has the defensively flexible Gallo frequently backfilling at other positions, which would allow the Twins to showcase their multitude of quality options in left field. Gordon, Larnach, and Taylor would be clear starters on a lot of teams. So, what's not to like? The concern here, I suppose, is the specter of Minnesota sticking with Gallo too long in the event he simply doesn't have it anymore. His 2022 season points toward such a probability; he batted .160 with a 79 OPS+ and 40% K-rate. The slugger struggled both before and after a midseason trade from Yankees to Dodgers. He was barely a replacement-level player. Gallo and the Twins are both banking on a rebound, which is why the two sides agreed to a one-year, $11 million contract. His contract and MLB track record will rightfully earn him some length of leash, and it can be difficult to gauge how much slumping is TOO much for a guy who batted .199 during an All-Star season two years ago. He's still under 30, entering a refreshing change of scenery in Minnesota, and good players have bounced back from worse. At the same time, for boom-or-bust types like Gallo, starting to fall behind major-league pitchers – even a little bit – is anathema. The appeal of waiting out those extended "bust" periods starts to fade quickly when the "booms" are too far and few between. (Just ask Miguel Sanó, still looking for a job at the same age as Gallo.) There's hope that cutting down his K's slightly and benefiting from the shift could get Gallo's batting average back up into an acceptable range (by his standard). But without an obvious injury to blame for last year's drop-off, and with teams already exploring ways to try and stifle him under the new rules, it's not the most favorable of bets. THE BOTTOM LINE Gordon can play several defensive positions. Left field might be the only one where he's truly an asset. It's also where Larnach's glove profiles best. So long as Kepler remains entrenched in right field, these two – along with Matt Wallner, and a handful of defensively ambiguous prospects nearing readiness – must look to left field as one of their best paths to MLB playing time. (Sans DH, which we'll break down soon.) The Gallo acquisition throws another barrier in the way for this group. But given the uncertainties surrounding most of these players and prospects, it's not a bad gamble. "Too much depth" is a problem the Twins, and any team, would love to have. Should Gallo rebound in left field while guys like Buxton, Kirilloff, and Kepler stay healthy and productive enough to keep him from being needed frequently elsewhere, they may find themselves with that happy problem. What a thought. Nothing wrong with dreaming big, so long as you're responsibly planning real-world contingencies. The Twins have plenty in left field. And as we'll see in then coming days, they have them across the outfield. Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop

The Twins signed the player who may be the hardest to remember from the Washington Nationals 2019 World Series roster at bar trivia to a minor-league deal. Andrew Stevenson, 28, spent all of his 2022 season at the Nationals Triple-A affiliate, the Rochester Red Wings. He had been removed from their 40-man roster early in the season and was never called back up. Stevenson had spent his entire career in the Nationals organization. He made his MLB debut in 2017 and accumulated 449 plate appearances in 248 games from 2017-2021. His greatest asset is his defense, but Stevenson has shown flashes of offensive production at times in the minor leagues and in the big leagues. During the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Stevenson posted a .366/.447/.732 (1.179 OPS), though it was in just 47 plate appearances. His 2022 season with the Red Wings was solid. He hit .279/.344/.457 (.801) with 16 home runs and 67 RBI in 135 games for the Red Wings. Stevenson’s addition to the Twins organization is great for any pending injuries. However, the possibility of his call-up would likely entail injuries to the other left-handed hitting outfielders including Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and Mark Contreras. The timing of the signing is interesting. Gilberto Celestino had surgery on his thumb and will miss two months while rehabbing. Plus, the plan was to let him develop in St. Paul this season anyway. Byron Buxton has yet to play this spring. Nick Gordon has been out with a high ankle sprain. Could it mean those players will be out longer than anticipated? Alex Kirilloff has also not played in a spring game yet which might mean that Joey Gallo may find himself at first base early in the season. Providing the Saints with some outfield options is also wise. Stevenson will likely receive nearly every day playing time with the Saints. His hitting abilities will be exciting to see against Triple-A pitching. If Stevenson ends up in a game for the Twins, hopefully, it will be due to hitting too well to ignore and not due to injuries. While this is just a minor-league signing, what do you think it means? Discuss in the COMMENTS below.

It encourages us to give into our inherent bias and forget the things that really matter. There isn’t a lot of drama in “this guy is on the 40-man roster” and “this guy doesn’t have options.” But those are the things that matter, not giving up a grand slam on March third. (We’ll get back to that.) So your best bet for deciphering a roster battle is to start with your assumptions before spring training started, when you were soberly and objectively evaluating the probable 26-man roster. And when I did that (call it version 0.0), here’s what it looked like. (Green means pretty much locked in. Yellow means I think I know? Red means I don’t know.) C Vazquez SP Gray 1B Kirilloff SP P Lopez 2B Polanco SP Mahle 3B Miranda SP Maeda SS Correa SP Ryan LF Gallo CF Buxton CL Duran RF Kepler RP J Lopez DH Larnach RP Jax RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers RP Pagan Bench OF Taylor RP Alcala Bench IF Farmer RP Moran Bench Gordon RP Megill Let’s walk through the changes that are and are not happening, in order of greatest impact. Donovan Solano is knocking out one of the position players. When the Twins signed Donovan Solano a major league contract two weeks ago, it likely meant one of the position players who has options was doomed. There aren’t that many: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers is a catcher, so he’s safe. We haven’t seen Kirilloff in a game yet, but he’s supposedly on track to return early. Trevor Larnach was scratched from the lineup with a lower body injury last week but is supposed to play left field on Tuesday. But if everyone is healthy he would probably be the odd man out. So we’ll leave him off the roster, and put Kirilloff in yellow to reflect the dual challenges of getting healthy and beating out both Larnach for the last spot. Long relief appears to be a priority. It’s one thing for Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to say he wants to have a long reliever available for most games this season. It’s another to see the organization align to make that wish a reality. We’re seeing the latter. Both Baldelli and Derek Falvey have discussed a group of pitcher that could be available in long relief. This is different than designating a long reliever, like the Twins tried to do with Randy Dobnak two years ago. This means having a pool of arms available so if the long reliever throws 50-70 pitches – or maybe even 30-50 - they can be swapped out with a different option from St Paul for the next game. This gets around a couple of challenges to the strategy. It allows a long reliever to pitch in back-to-back games if necessary. And it limits the impact of last year’s new MLB rule limiting each pitcher to just five back-and-forths to the minors. With more arms you have more options. And the Twins have more arms. Cole Sands and Brent Headrick probably have the inside track because they are on the 40-man roster. Old friends Randy Dobnak and Aaron Sanchez might also be options, though that would require a further roster move. Josh Winder and Ronny Henriquez have also been mentioned by Falvey as options, though both are dealing with potential arm health issues in camp. So we’ll adjust the roster by giving one spot to a long reliever, which crowds the other three guys into two spots. I’m also going to break my rule about overreacting to game performances, and add Emilio Pagan to that group, just because the grand slam he gave up on Thursday gave me a little PTSD. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but there might be some injuries It’s early in camp, so I’m not going to adjust the any of the statuses, but we’re all keeping an eye on when we next see Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, and Nick Gordon in a game. There is no indication that they won’t all be ready by Opening Day, so, again, no changes to the chart. But baseball is a “show me” game, and the color on those spots could change in a couple more weeks if we’re not shown something soon. If any of them don’t happen, Larnach might be back on the roster. So here’s the new chart. C Vazquez SP Gray 1B Kirilloff SP P Lopez 2B Polanco SP Mahle 3B Miranda SP Maeda SS Correa SP Ryan LF Gallo CF Buxton CL Duran RF Kepler RP J Lopez DH Solano RP Jax RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers RP Pagan/Moran Bench OF Taylor RP Moran/Alcala Bench IF Farmer RP Alcala/Megill Bench Gordon LR Sands/Headrick We'll have plenty more chances to overreact before I attack this again. Any new injury is that much closer to Opening Day, as is every game in which one of the regulars doesn't appear. We'll may see some big or clutch performances by Twins players playing in the World Baseball Classis, and their absence will absolutely create opportunities for other players trying to wedge their way onto the roster. So if you're disappointed that there isn't more change, stay tuned. The temptation to overreact and embrace drama only gets more heated going forward.

Coming into spring training, it seemed that Trevor Larnach might serve as the Twins most regular designated hitter. With Joey Gallo looking to handle left field, Alex Kirilloff slated for first base, and Max Kepler still on the team, that was a fair thought. Things got murky when Donovan Solano was added to the mix. Kyle Farmer may take the first crack, but there will still be at-bats to go around. Is it crazy to give some of them to Canadian prospect Edouard Julien? Coming off an excellent season for Double-A Wichita, Julien went to the Arizona Fall League and continued to rake. He posted a .931 OPS across 113 games in the Texas League, and his 1.248 OPS during 21 Fall League games went on to beat it. Since being lured away from Auburn, and the Twins had to entice him plenty, all he has done is hit. That is a good thing for Julien because he leaves plenty to be desired in the field. Mainly playing second base, he’d need an injury to starter Jorge Polanco for an opportunity to open. Even then, Solano, Farmer, or the now-injured Nick Gordon could stand between him and that chance. If his bat is going to carry, though, then maybe that is all Minnesota needs to play. Rocco Baldelli’s bench should consist of backup catcher Ryan Jeffers, Farmer, Solano, and a healthy Gordon. That group gives the manager plenty of flexibility. Should Gordon miss Opening Day due to his high ankle sprain, the spot may need to be taken by an outfielder. Neither Solano nor Farmer is an ideal fit on the grass, and Gordon has all but transitioned to being one. If there is a way for the final spot to be somewhat position-less (or multi-positional), then Julien’s spring isn’t slowing his chances. Prospects aren’t expected to skip Triple-A entirely, and it usually happens with top-tier types such as Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, or Jose Berrios. Still, with Julien’s game being somewhat one-sided, he may need less refinement than those in a traditional scenario. The power has already played this spring with the Twins, and Julien can further substantiate his results by showing well for Team Canada during the World Baseball Classic. As a high on-base guy, his 8/1 K/BB this spring seems abnormal, but we’re also dealing with a tiny sample size. When the dust settles, it’s probably too insignificant to extrapolate much from the results, but that won’t discourage Julien from putting his best foot forward. It remains unlikely that there is an avenue for Julien to break camp with the Twins and head to Kansas City for Opening Day, but plenty of crazier additions to the 26-man roster have worked their way out. Julien has already been added to the 40-man roster and wouldn't need any back-of-the-napkin gymnastics to find his way into a big-league clubhouse. Even if it doesn’t happen to start the year, betting against Julien in 2023 seems unwise. He’ll be right down the street in St. Paul, and you’d probably be best served to get your tickets early if you want to see him there. A strong start at Triple-A could force Minnesota’s decision-making process in a hurry. At some point, the Twins will need to decide how much the hit tool can carry Julien, and if it’s enough to let him do nothing more than that in their lineup, then he’ll find a great position as a consistent designated hitter this year.

The Twins triumphed over the Atlanta Braves, 10-7, in Hammond Stadium in Fort Myers on Tuesday afternoon. It was Tyler Mahle's first game since shoulder fatigue shut down his 2022 season, but his stuff looked great, with velocity exceeding last year's average fastball velocity. The Twins jumped on an early lead thanks to two infielders - Edouard Julien and Willi Castro - who are likely slated for St. Paul. But the postgame talk with manager Rocco Baldelli revealed some injuries that were reflected in the game's lineup. John Bonnes has the details from the game. twins-braves-landscape.mp4

When the Twins signed Donovan Solano to the major-league roster last week, it shuffled things a bit. Nick Gordon is out of options, and the rest of the bench is largely set. Kyle Farmer could find himself as the Opening Day designated hitter, and everything points to Trevor Larnach beginning the season at Triple-A St. Paul. On one hand, Larnach failing to crack the 26-man roster is representative of depth behind Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler. On the other, it’s suboptimal to see a polished college hitter still yet to establish himself in the majors at age-26. The Twins have a concerning string of draft picks, and it starts with Larnach for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. Taken 20th overall from Oregon State during the 2018 Major League Baseball draft, Larnach’s selection was largely rooted in his hit tool. Capable of lots of loud contact, Larnach generates significant bat speed and produces very high exit velocities. He is a guy that should hit for plenty of power, and he doesn’t whiff substantially in doing so. At the big league level, we have seen that, but it has come in short bursts as he has struggled to stay healthy. Larnach has played just 130 major-league games, and his .687 OPS is not close to what he has flashed in small sample sizes. He did show off his arm in left field last season but then was shelved with a significant core muscle injury. Finding a way to force his addition to the 26-man roster this season is a must, and raking at Triple-A may be a start. To stay there this time, he’ll need to be healthy. Following the selection of Larnach, 2019 top pick Keoni Cavaco was cut from an entirely different cloth. As a late riser and helium pick, Cavaco may have been a reach at 13th overall. He was a shortstop with tools and projection but potentially wouldn’t stick there. Now 187 games into his pro career, he has missed time with injury, missed a season due to the pandemic, and not produced at all. Cavaco played the hot corner for Fort Myers last season as Noah Miller took over at shortstop. His .672 OPS across 99 games was a career-high, and he showed some power by hitting 11 homers. His 138/22 K/BB at Low-A doesn’t bode well for his future. Cavaco will likely start at High-A Cedar Rapids this season, but it’s not necessarily production warranted. He still will only be 22 years old, but something has to give in order for this pick to turn in some future promise. Rounding out the group is another loud college bat, Aaron Sabato. A first baseman at North Carolina, Sabato was taken 27th overall in 2020. Like Larnach before him, the draw was a power bat that produced strong exit velocities. That’s not a skill you can teach, and he did a pretty good job of showing plate discipline as an amateur as well. Unfortunately in pro ball, the wheels have all but fallen off. Across 210 professional games, Sabato owns an ugly .209/.355/.424 slash line. He has hit for the expected power, and he’s done a decent job drawing walks, but he also punched out 142 times last season in just 103 games at Double-A and lower. The strikeout problems aren’t going to get better as the competition increases, and it’s looked more and more likely that he may only be a designated hitter. Finding a way to show some level of plate discipline could go a long way toward avoiding this being a bust pick. Minnesota didn’t wait around with Brent Rooker, and the results there were much more manageable on the farm. None of these three players are done with their time in the Twins organization after this year, but what their futures look like could largely be influenced by it. Larnach needs to force his way into a crowded picture, and the pair of Cavaco and Sabato need to show there is a reason why they were taken so high. Not all first-round draft picks pan out, but Minnesota is definitely eyeing better things from this three-year stretch as soon as possible.

Throughout the Twins' history, some tremendous players have filled the designated hitter role. For some players like Tony Oliva, the shift to DH was necessary because of mounting injuries. For other players like Paul Molitor and Jim Thome, it was a line-up spot to fill near the end of a Hall of Fame career. The Twins don't have a player like that on the 2023 roster, so their approach to the DH role will look similar to recent seasons. Rocco Baldelli told reporters, "We're going to rotate the DH. You could probably almost name every guy out there in the regular lineup that's going to have some time at DH. There's a lot of them. We're going to have some options." He went on to say, "I actually think it's a good way to use the DH slot. If you have Nelson Cruz like we've had or David Ortiz and a few guys that really fit in that spot well, you're going to go with guys like that. But I think for most clubs the best way to do it is rotate that thing around." Keeping Players In the Line-Up Since Nelson Cruz's departure, the Twins have left the DH spot open to provide a partial rest day for a player while keeping his bat in the line-up. Last season, Minnesota started 15 different players at DH, including Luis Arraez (34), Byron Buxton (34), and Gary Sanchez (32), starting more than 30 games at DH. Arraez and Buxton were battling injuries, so it was a way to take stress off their bodies on the defensive side of the ball. Buxton made it clear this spring that he doesn't like serving in the DH role. "Mentally, it's very hard," he said because he has to stay warm between at-bats. He's not just watching the game from the dugout and waiting for his turn to bat. Buxton is down in the cage, taking more swings than if he were playing in the outfield. Even with this disdain for the role, Buxton will likely lead the team in appearances as the DH. The Twins are a better team with him in the line-up, and the DH spot allows him to make sure his body is prepared for the rigors of a 162-game schedule. Besides Buxton, plenty of other veterans will see time at DH in 2023, including Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, and Nick Gordon. Those players are the tip of the iceberg for the DH role, especially if the Twins want to employ different line-up strategies. Platoon Options The Twins can also utilize a platoon strategy depending on the pitching match-up. Nick Gordon showed tremendous improvements with his power numbers in last season's second half, as his OPS improved by 76 points. As a lefty, most of his damage came against right-handed pitchers by hitting .289/.329/.465 (.793). Gordon is out of minor league options, so he will be on the Opening Day roster, and DH at-bats might be one way to get him into the line-up regularly. Other infielders can benefit from being used in a platoon situation. Kyle Farmer looked to be the team's starting shortstop before the club re-signed Correa. Now a bench player, Farmer will get starts around the infield, but he should be in the line-up whenever the team faces a lefty. Last season, he destroyed lefties by hitting .309/.380/.568 (.948) with 19 extra-base hits in 139 at-bats. Minnesota officially added Donovan Solano to the big-league roster in the last week. The 35-year-old has averaged around 90 games per season over the last two years. As a righty, his OPS was 66 points higher (.770 OPS vs. .704 OPS) when facing left-handed pitchers last season. The Solano signing has multiple facets, including him getting time at DH and first base. Other DH Options The Twins have a trio of young corner outfielders trying to earn time on the big-league roster. Alex Kirilloff is penciled in as the everyday first baseman, but he is slowly returning from offseason wrist surgery. Minnesota will be cautious with him throughout the spring, and there's a chance he will need regular days off to start the year. After the Twins signed Solano, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner seem destined for St. Paul. Both bats will impact the big-league roster this season, and some of those appearances will come in a DH role. Leaving the DH spot open provides the Twins with flexibility, but there isn't a player that would be considered a big bat off the bench. This DH strategy may work for the Twins, but they have to hope it can keep more players healthy in 2023. Outside of Buxton, who do you think makes the most appearances as the designated hitter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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TRANSACTIONS C Kyle Schmidt activated (Wichita) INF Ernie Yake placed on 7-day IL (Wichita) OF Trevor Larnach begins rehab assignment (St. Paul) Saints Sentinel St. Paul 2, Louisville 5 Box Score Jordan Balazovic: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K HR: None Multi-hit games: Elliot Soto (2-for-3, R, BB) St. Paul lost quietly to Louisville on Thursday. Jordan Balazovic pitched well, allowing a single earned run with six strikeouts over four innings; that punchout total is good for his second-highest of the season. It’s been an up-and-down year—with far more downs than anyone wished to see—but Balazovic has turned a corner late in the season, and it has been great to see. The bats couldn’t find any momentum, only scratching out two runs off technically old friend Justin Nicolino before shutting down against the Bats’ bullpen. Elliot Soto’s three times on base represented the best of any batter. Both runs scored on a Dalton Shuffield double. Jake Jewell carried the pitching effort, striking out three over 2 ⅓ scoreless innings of work; Brad Peacock tagged in with a shutout frame of his own. Trevor Larnach singled and struck out in his first rehab game. Mike Siani—the 26th ranked prospect in the Reds system—leads the Bats; he singled in four plate appearances. Wind Surge Wisdom Wichita 8, Midland 6 Box Score Brent Headrick: 4 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K HR: None Multi-hit games: Edouard Julien (2-for-5, 2B, R, RBI), Yunior Severino (2-for-4, RBI, BB), DaShawn Keirsey Jr. (2-for-5), Leobaldo Cabrera (2-for-4, 2 R, BB) Wichita won a barn burner on Thursday. The bats came alive early; Wichita scored five runs off a flurry of hits in the 2nd inning and never looked back. Dillon Tatum, Austin Martin, Edouard Julien, and Yunior Severino all earned an RBI for their efforts. Martin doubled in another run in the 4th inning; Alex Isola singled one home in the 6th. The bullpen carried the day as their incredible effort—spearheaded by scoreless outings from Hunter McMahon and Casey Legumina—saved the game. The collection of arms pitched five innings in relief of Brent Headrick, allowing two runs with six strikeouts. Martin stole his 34th base of the season; DaShawn Keirsey Jr. nabbed his 41st. Tyler Soderstrom—the Athletics’ 2nd ranked prospect according to MLB.com— leads the RockHounds. Soderstrom singled, walked, and scored a pair of runs. Kernels Nuggets Cedar Rapids 5, South Bend 3 Box Score Travis Adams: 4 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K HR: Wander Javier (1) Multi-hit games: Brooks Lee (2-for-4, 2 2B, R) The Kernels won on Thursday to knot the playoff series at 1. No one hitter dominated the batter’s box; Cedar Rapids rode a steady stream of walks—seven of them, to be precise—to five runs, just enough to win the game. The 5th inning proved especially fruitful, as the team scored three runs off a walk, a hit by pitch, and a balk. The team went 0-7 with runners in scoring position. Travis Adams didn’t have his A-stuff; the righty allowed six hits and three runs over four innings, with runs scoring in three separate innings. Fortunately, his bullpen had his back, as Jaylen Nowlin, Miguel Rodriguez, and Ryan Shreve combined for five scoreless innings, allowing a sole hit with seven strikeouts. Brooks Lee clubbed a pair of doubles; Wander Javier blasted a solo homer. Pete Crow-Armstrong—the Cubs' top prospect according to MLB.com, and the son of Ashley Crow, the actress who played the mom in Little Big League, leads the Cubs. He had a single in four trips to the plate. Mussel Matters Fort Myers 7, Dunedin 5 Box Score Marco Raya: 4 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K HR: Keoni Cavaco (1) Multi-hit games: Ben Ross (2-for-3, 2 R, BB), Tanner Schobel (2-for-4, R), Kala’i Rosario (2-for-4, R, 2 RBI) The Mighty Mussels won with a late comeback on Thursday. It all started with an 8th-inning movement; Fort Myers stood at a 2-5 deficit, staring up the Blue Jays as Dunedin appeared set to take a commanding 2-0 series lead. Ben Ross walked, Noah Miller singled, and Kala’i Rosario brought the Mighty Mussels one run closer with an RBI single. Ian Churchill—working to become the most well-known man with that surname—walked Misael Urbina, bringing Keoni Cavaco to the plate with the bases full. Cavaco wasted no time, stepped into the first pitch, and drove a grand slam deep out to left-center field. Marco Raya worked a tough but admirable game; the righty allowed three 1st inning runs—never an ideal start for a pitcher—but dialed himself in, and held the Blue Jays scoreless in the three following frames. Kyle Jones was probably the most important pitcher in Thursday’s effort as he pitched three innings without an earned run while striking out two. 2022 draft picks carried the game in general; Ben Ross and Tanner Schobel both clocked in multi-hit performances. Josh Kasevich and Cade Doughty—the 10th and 11th ranked prospects for the Blue Jays, respectively—lead the Dunedin club. Kasevich walked twice and singled; Doughty singled and struck out twice. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Jordan Balazovic, St. Paul Saints Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Keoni Cavaco, Ft. Myers Mighty Mussels PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #2 - Brooks Lee (Cedar Rapids) - 2-for-4, 2 2B, R #4 - Austin Martin (Wichita) - 1-3, 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB #7 - Noah Miller (Ft. Myers) - 1-4, R, K #8 - Marco Raya (Ft. Myers) - 4 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K #9 - Matt Wallner (St. Paul) - 0-4, BB, 2 K #11 - Jordan Balazovic (St. Paul) - 4 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K #14 - Edouard Julien (Wichita) - 2-for-5, 2B, R, RBI, 2 KP #18 - Tanner Schobel (Ft. Myers) - 2-for-4, R #20 - Kala’i Rosario (Ft. Myers) - 2-for-4, R, 2 RBI, K FRIDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Louisville @ St. Paul (7:07 PM) - RHP Mario Sanchez Wichita @ Midland (7:00 PM) - RHP Daniel Gossett South Bend @ Cedar Rapids (6:35 PM) - RHP Orlano Rodriguez (Game 3 in Best of 3 series) Dunedin @ Fort Myers (6:00 PM) - LHP Jordan Carr (Game 3 in Best of 3 series)

Leading into the 2023 season, fans can analyze different projection systems to predict the performance of any big-league team. For this article, Steamer projections will be featured. According to MLB.com, Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. Steamer projects the Twins' top five position players as Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda, and Christian Vazquez. On the mound, the top five pitchers are all starters, including Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. It would be easy to target any of those players and say they need to outperform their projections, but let's dig deeper into the roster. Joey Gallo, OF 2023 Steamer Projection: .188/.313/.393, 105 wRC+, 2.7 Off, -6.3 Def, 1.1 WAR The Twins signed Gallo to a one-year, $11 million deal in hopes of him returning to the All-Star caliber player he was in previous seasons. He's coming off his worst professional season, as he posted a .638 OPS and a 79 OPS+ over 126 games for the Yankees and the Dodgers. His projected slugging percentage is 76 points below his career average, which is one area he will need to outperform his projection. His defensive total also seems extremely low for a player known as a strong defender. Last year, he posted a -1.3 Def, his lowest total since 2017. Trevor Larnach, OF 2023 Steamer Projection: .225/.306/.373, 96 wRC+, -1.9 OF, -5.3 Def, 0.3 WAR Over the last two seasons, Larnach has dealt with multiple injuries, including a hand injury and a core muscle injury. When healthy, his powerful bat looks like it should be penciled into the middle of the Twins line-up. In 16 games last June, he posted a 1.077 OPS with six doubles and three home runs. Twins Daily's most recent roster projection has Larnach pegged to start the year at Triple-A. He will have to prove he is healthy and hit his way back to the big-league roster. Injuries will impact the Twins' outfield, and he needs to be ready when promoted. Jorge Alcala, RP 2023 Steamer Projection: 54 IP, 3.75 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.2 WAR Alcala missed nearly all of the 2022 season after having arthroscopic debridement surgery on his throwing elbow. In 2021, Alcala posted a 3.92 ERA with 9.2 K/9 over 59 2/3 innings while earning opportunities in a late-inning role. The Twins didn't add anyone to the bullpen this winter, which makes Alcala's return even more critical. He's already produced more than 0.2 WAR in multiple big-league seasons, so that projection is the most significant discrepancy. If Alcala can outperform his projections, he may help to revitalize a core bullpen group that struggled through much of the first half of 2022. Jorge Lopez, RP 2023 Steamer Projection: 70 IP, 3.58 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.4 WAR Steamer projects Lopez to provide the fourth-highest WAR total among Twins relievers. It's reasonable to think that the Twins would be disappointed in that result. Minnesota surrendered four pitching prospects (including Cade Povich) because they felt Lopez could upgrade the bullpen for multiple seasons. He struggled after the trade with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 23 appearances. The Twins won't follow a traditional closer model, but Lopez will likely get save opportunities, primarily if Jhoan Duran is used in high-leverage situations earlier than the ninth inning. Which player is most likely to outperform their Steamer projection? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

The Twins were one of the most injured teams throughout the 2022 season. Minnesota overcame these injuries during most of the season to be at the top of the AL Central. Unfortunately, the club ran out of gas (and players) in the second half. Will the injury bug hit the Twins again in 2023? Let’s review the team’s injuries from last season and how they will impact spring training. Pitchers Jorge Alcala: Alcala landed on the injured list five days into the 2022 season with elbow inflammation. He tried to return but suffered a setback in June. In August, the Twins announced he underwent arthroscopic debridement surgery on his throwing elbow. Minnesota expected him to be a vital bullpen arm in 2022, so it will be interesting to see what role he can fill in 2023. He’s expected to be ready to start the season. Sonny Gray: Gray had three stints on the injured list last season, including ending the year on the shelf. He missed time in April with a hamstring injury and a pectoral strain in June. His season ended on the IL with a hamstring strain. Minnesota was out of contention, so the team had no reason to rush him back. Gray has failed to pitch more than 150 innings in all but two seasons since 2016 due to injuries. Kenta Maeda: Maeda missed the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. There was some hope he would be able to pitch in the season’s final weeks, but the Twins fell out of contention, and there was no reason to rush him back. Maeda is entering the final year of his contract, so he has a lot to prove on the mound this season. Can teams rely on him to be a starting pitcher moving forward, or is he headed to a bullpen role? Tyler Mahle: Mahle’s Twins tenure has been overshadowed by injuries. He was limited to four appearances after being acquired by the Twins. Before the trade, Mahle missed 21 days with a right shoulder strain. He came back and made two starts before being moved to the Twins. Minnesota reported that there was no structural damage to the shoulder, and the Twins worked with him on an off-season shoulder regimen. He has a chance to be the team's top pitcher if he can move past his shoulder concerns. Bailey Ober: Ober was limited to 11 appearances in 2022 and didn’t make an appearance between June 1 and September 16 because of a groin strain. Throughout his professional career, he hasn’t pitched more than the 108 1/3 innings he threw in 2021. He reached that number in 2021 between the Twins and Saints. If everyone is healthy, there’s a good chance Ober will start the year in the Triple-A rotation. It would be great if Ober can set a new a career high in innings pitched in 2023, but he hasn't been a bastion of health with the Twins. Position Players Byron Buxton: Buxton had a tremendous start to his 2022 campaign on the way to his first All-Star Game appearance. His second half was much more limited while he dealt with a right hip strain and a knee issue. In September, he underwent season-ending arthroscopic knee surgery, which the team considered a cleanup procedure. He is expected to be ready as spring training begins, but injuries have impacted much of Buxton’s career. Carlos Correa: Correa has played 136 games or more over the last two seasons, so injuries haven’t been a concern in recent seasons. However, Correa’s ankle caused two contracts to fall through this winter. He is also not participating in the World Baseball Classic, but that is tied to his wife expecting their second child in March. Different injuries have marked Correa’s big-league career, but the team will likely be taking good care of his ankle during his remaining Twins tenure. Jorge Polanco: During the 2022 season, Polanco missed time with patellar tendonitis before landing on the injured list in early September. He tried to work his way back and played in minor league rehab games before suffering a setback. Polanco should be good to go at the start of spring training, but he is certainly someone to watch. Chronic ankle injuries have also impacted him in multiple seasons. Alex Kirilloff: Kirilloff missed time the last two seasons with wrist issues. Last season, he dealt with considerable pain while swinging, and the team needed to find a long-term solution. In August, he underwent a season-ending ulnar shortening procedure that is relatively rare for professional athletes. There are a lot of unknowns with this procedure and how well a big-league hitter can recover, although Kirk Gibson is one positive example to give you hope. First base is one of the most critical spots in the team’s line-up, and the club needs Kirilloff to produce at a high level. Trevor Larnach: In late June, Larnach underwent a bilateral surgical repair to treat a core muscle strain. At the time, the team thought that he’d miss six weeks, but he never returned in 2022. During the 2021 season, his performance suffered before the Twins demoted him to Triple-A. He later revealed that a hand injury had been bothering him. When healthy, he’s shown tremendous power potential but hasn’t been able to stay on the field. Are you worried about any of these injuries? Will the Twins be healthier in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Rewind a year or two and the likes of Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff were seen as foundational pieces for Rocco Baldelli’s future lineup. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had put together an organizational structure allowing such young talents to thrive, and the pair looked the part of potential superstars in the not-so-distant future. When looking at the Minnesota lineup this year, plenty has been suggested about a team that struggled to score runs in 2022 and not a substantial amount of addition. What that unfortunately negates is a belief in youth that had once been there. Yes, Carlos Correa is back, and Joey Gallo could rebound. Christian Vazquez is probably better than Gary Sanchez, but the overhaul hasn’t been substantial. It shouldn’t need to be though, if the power pair can produce. For the past couple of seasons, we have seen Kirilloff struggle with a wrist injury that has had him nowhere near his best. Playing in just 104 games at the big league level the past two seasons, Kirilloff has compiled a mediocre 94 OPS+. The on-base skills are hardly what they were in the minors, and his power production has been all but sapped. At least we have answers as to why. It was clear at different points over the past two seasons that when Kirilloff’s wrist wasn’t nagging him, the bat was as expected. He’s not the prototypical slugger that sells out for power. When right, Kirilloff should possess the ability to be a .300 or better hitter while driving the ball to all fields. With his wrist nagging him, follow through at the point of contact was non-existent, and a rare double seemed to be as good as it gets. Having undergone a much more aggressive wrist surgery late last season, the hope is that Kirilloff can put the injury behind him. He is trending well, and there has been no shutdown similar to the one we were made aware of last offseason. He’s hitting, working on baseball activities, and being anywhere near full health should strike fear in opposing pitchers on a daily basis. For Larnach, the injury history is not as substantial. A core muscle surgery sidelined him for the remainder of last season following a strong start. He wound up playing in just 51 games, but tallied a 104 OPS+. The power spiked a bit more than we saw during his 2021 debut, and it was starting to look like he was settling in as a big leaguer. Although the bat has long been lauded as his calling card, Larnach also fared incredibly well in the outfield. Team’s continued to run on him in left field, and he racked up assists while routinely nailing runners at the plate. Although not as athletic as some of Minnesota’s other outfield defenders, Larnach proved far more than just a bat-only type of player. Having taken time to fully heal, the expectation should be that he can hit the ground running and produce in a big way this year. The Twins have a significant amount of lefty bats they may need to balance in the lineup, but Larnach could certainly get run at the designated hitter spot. If he can hold serve anything like he did on the farm, and has shown in brief stints at the highest level, Baldelli will have plenty to be excited about when putting him in the lineup. Maybe the Twins could have done more to add ability into the lineup this offseason. That said, banking on the development they have always been encouraged by is hardly a misstep either. This pair of prospects have topped charts and been highly anticipated for some time. Still young, and now healthy, breakouts for both could be on the horizon.

There have been points this winter where we were waiting for a Max Kepler trade announcement within the coming hours, such as when Joey Gallo was signed. Here we are at the end of January, however, and not only is Max Kepler still a Twin, it appears that may not change after all. When Disco Dan Hayes makes such a statement, it’s wise to listen. The Twins still see value in Kepler, at least more than other teams appear to on the trade market. It’s a fair stance. It’s hard to trade a player for less than a team feels they’re worth. That being said, if Max Kepler stays in Minnesota another year, the Twins need to get realistic about what they have in their homegrown corner outfielder. Max Kepler was seen as a breakout candidate for years before finally doing so in 2019. His 122 wRC+ that year made him appear to be a future star player, slugging 36 homers and crushing lefties, his biggest weakness as a hitter. We now have about 1,500 plate appearances prior to 2019 and over 1000 after saying that Max Kepler is not the player he was in 2019, and it’s time the Twins stop pretending he is. The realistic description of Max Kepler is that he’s a defense first strong side platoon player with a plate approach that should keep him out of the everyday lineup. In about 1,100 plate appearances since 2019, Max Kepler has slashed .220/.314/.392. His 98 wRC+ is 2% below league average for that time period, but playing the premier offensive position of corner outfield means that he’s even further below average than that relative to his positional peers. The Twins roster is ripe with reasons for Max Kepler not to have right field locked down everyday. Trevor Larnach nearly had as many Defensive Runs saved as Kepler in far fewer innings defensively in 2022, and there’s still a chance he hits left handed pitching and becomes a legitimate everyday player. Joey Gallo, for as much hate as he gets, is a legit plus player in the outfield defensively, and his career wRC+ is over 30 points higher against left handed pitching while his splits against right handed pitching are nearly identical to Kepler. Newly added outfielder Michael Taylor, who is known for being a non contributor offensively, blows Kepler away against left handed pitching for their careers. In 2022, Max Kepler took 60% of his plate appearances in the 1-4 spots of the lineup and about 43% of his plate appearances in the cleanup spot. There’s simply no justification for the Twins to continue this moving forward. With a career .744 OPS, Kepler hasn’t even reached the .720 mark since the shortened 2020 season. Even against right handed pitching Kepler has been surpassed by players such as Nick Gordon, who performed considerably better offensively as a platoon player in 2022. The Twins have assembled enough depth to keep Kepler from hitting in the heart of the lineup, and from playing in same-handed matchups at all. At 30 years old it’s time to recognize that this is the caliber of player that Max Kepler is. All of this to say that Max Kepler is a fine player… as a depth piece. There will be times where his defensive value is needed, and given the Twins recent injuries, he'll be a fine everyday fill-in for short periods if need be. In terms of 2022 calculated value per WAR, Kepler was still a value as he was paid $6.75m and was worth a bit over $10m by 2022 free agency measures. His $8.5m salary in 2023 and $10m team option for 2024 become much more in question however. If Kepler plays less in 2023 and/or his defensive value declines even slightly, he becomes less of a value and a prime candidate to have his 2024 option declined. This is why it’s still somewhat puzzling that the Twins don’t appear to be determined to trade him. With the shift ban on the horizon, it’s not a stretch to call it likely that Kepler’s value may never be higher despite the fact that it doesn’t look like he’ll benefit all that much from the rule change. The Twins may still very well trade Max Kepler. If they don’t however, they need to use him in an appropriate role. He’s not a player whose performance demands at bats. He’s not part of the core of the lineup.

Many first-round picks quickly move into the organization’s top prospect lists. Minnesota has seen some successes and failures in recent drafts, with multiple top prospects on the way to Target Field. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have focused on certain types of players in the draft, which might help the team keep its winning window open as long as possible. Here’s a look at the last decade of first-round picks for the Twins. 2022: Brooks Lee (8th overall) Lee is one of the most exciting hitting prospects to come through the Twins organization in quite some time. Some evaluators thought he could be the number one overall pick, but he fell to the Twins with the eighth pick. Last season, he played at three levels and hit .303/.389/.451 (.839) with six doubles and four home runs. The Twins don’t need to rush things with Lee, and he will probably spend most of the season at Double-A. If he performs well, there is a chance he will make his debut in 2023 and is a top-25 global prospect by this time next year. 2021: Chase Petty (26th overall) It can take a long time for high school pitchers to develop in the minor leagues. Minnesota thought Petty had enough upside to take on that risk before drafting him late in the first round. Leading into last season, the Twins traded him to the Reds organization for Sonny Gray. In his age-19 season, the Reds pushed him to High-A, and he compiled a 3.48 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and 8.8 K/9. For 2023, Petty should get a full season at High-A with a chance to pitch over 100 innings for the first time in his career. 2020: Aaron Sabato (27th overall) The 2020 MLB Draft will be interesting to analyze in the years ahead. College teams saw limited action before the shutdown, and many high school players never stepped on the field that spring. Sabato destroyed the ball in college (1.158 OPS) before being drafted by the Twins. In 2022, he hit .215/.336/.438 (.774) with 17 doubles and 22 home runs while reaching Double-A. Sabato was over a year younger than the average age of the competition in the Texas League, so he should spend most of 2022 at that level. 2019: Keoni Cavaco (13th overall) Cavaco has spent the last two seasons at Fort Myers while shifting from shortstop to third base. Last season, he hit .231/.275/.397 (.672) with 18 doubles, five triples, and 11 home runs. His OPS jumped 74 points compared to 2021, and he was roughly the same age as the average competition at his level. He will be pushed to Cedar Rapids in 2023 with a chance to reach Double-A by the season’s end. 2018: Trevor Larnach (20th overall) Larnach has averaged fewer than 80 games per season over the last two years. He’s been a streaky hitter during his big-league career, but some of his performance might be tied to his injury history. He posted a 104 OPS+ in 2022 and destroyed the ball in May with a 1.077 OPS. Minnesota has a plethora of left-handed power-hitting bats, which might make Larnach expendable as part of a trade. 2017: Royce Lewis (1st overall) It looked like the Twins might be willing to turn shortstop over to Royce Lewis before the team signed Carlos Correa to a long-term deal. Now, Lewis will need to shift to other defensive positions if Correa continues to stay healthy. During the 2023 season, Lewis isn’t expected to return to action until mid-season while recovering from his second ACL tear over the last two seasons. 2016: Alex Kirilloff (15th overall) Kirilloff has battled through wrist issues during his first two big-league seasons, and the Twins hope his latest surgery helps him in the long term. There have been glimpses of the strong hitter Kirilloff was at the start of his professional career, but his nagging wrist has slowed down his development. He will get regular time at first base and in a corner outfield spot for the 2023 Twins. 2015: Tyler Jay (6th overall) Jay never made it to the big leagues with the Twins organization. He topped out at the Double-A level in four seasons in the organization. The Twins traded Jay to the Reds organization during the 2019 season for cash considerations, but he only spent part of a season pitching for that organization. Last year, he made 22 appearances with a 1.64 ERA and 9.8 K/9 for the Joliet Slammers in the independent Frontier League. It seems likely that he can get another job in independent baseball if he wants to continue pitching. 2014: Nick Gordon (5th overall) It may have taken longer than expected, but Gordon found a niche with the 2022 Twins. He became an everyday player for a team struggling through injuries and posted a 113 OPS+ in 136 games. Minnesota has plenty of corner outfield options on the 40-man roster, so it will be interesting to see how the Twins will use Gordon in 2023. He is out of MLB options, so he needs to be kept on the Opening Day roster. 2013: Kohl Stewart (4th overall) Stewart played eight seasons in the Twins organization and made six appearances at the big-league level. He struggled in the upper minors with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in over 160 innings at Triple-A. For 2023, the Royals signed Stewart to a minor league deal, but he isn’t expected in big-league camp as he continues to rehab from an elbow injury. Which players will have the most significant impact on the 2023 roster? Which player was the biggest disappointment? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

On March 30th in Kansas City, the Twins will kick off their season against the Royals and presumably a right-handed starter (Brady Singer?). Prior to last week's Pablo López trade, the most likely Opening Day lineup for Minnesota would have featured Alex Kirilloff at first base, José Miranda at third base, and Luis Arraez at designated hitter. Now, they'll need to find another way to fill that last spot. In some ways, the question feels rather unimportant; it's just one game, and the Twins are likely to rotate different players like Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Miranda through the DH spot frequently. There doesn't necessarily need to be a "primary" guy at the position, and indeed we saw this play out last year in the absence of Nelson Cruz, with 10 different players getting distributed starts at DH. However, trying to figure out who Rocco Baldelli will write in at designated hitter against a right-handed pitcher on Opening Day will tell us a great deal about the current state of the roster, the quality of the 'A lineup,' and the decisions (or opportunities) that still lie ahead. INTERNAL OPTIONS If the Twins don't make any more significant additions to the mix (which I rather doubt), here are the options in play to handle DH on Opening Day, and on a semi-regular basis against righties: Nick Gordon Gordon is probably the simplest default answer, in that he will assuredly be on the roster and won't have a designated starting position. He slashed .289/.329/.465 against right-handed pitchers last year so he's definitely a viable threat versus someone like Singer but ... the wiry utility man would be an odd fit as designated hitter on Opening Day, or as the regular plug there. Last year, he made zero starts at DH. Trevor Larnach I think Larnach is by far the best fit as lefty-swinging DH option for the Twins, so long as he is on the roster. At the moment, it's not totally clear he will be. If the club is carrying Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Kirilloff and Gordon, is there room for a fifth lefty-swinging corner guy? Maybe – especially if they treat Larnach as more of a regular DH and Gordon more as the fourth outfielder. But Larnach is still developing and the Twins need to be thoughtful about getting him consistent action. Matt Wallner Similar to Larnach, Wallner is victimized by the backlog of lefty corner outfielders. Since he's behind (a healthy) Larnach in line, his path to claiming this role is even more obstructed. Trading Kepler would create a much clearer path for either to carve out an immediate spot on the big-league roster. Edouard Julien The emergence of Julien was likely a major factor in the front office's willingness to deal Arraez. Julien is quite similar in profile: a lefty-hitting infielder with excellent OBP skills and no clear defensive fit. If the Twins wanted to replace some semblance of what Arraez brought to the table in the DH spot, this would be the route. It would also be pretty aggressive, as the 23-year-old Julien has yet to play above Double-A (where he slashed a ridiculous .332/.465/.566 vs. RHP last year). If the Twins keep their current personnel and hold an open competition at DH this spring, I could see Julien claiming the gig, drawing most of the DH starts against righties while Buxton, Correa, and Miranda fill in against lefties. Alex Kirilloff I'm including Kirilloff in this list because he would theoretically be a logical fit as DH against right-handers. He'll probably get the occasional look there. But I think the Twins view him as by far their best defensive first baseman. If his wrist is good enough to swing, it's good enough to play first base, and that's where they'll want him on Opening Day and most days. EXTERNAL OPTIONS None of the above options would be bad, per se. But for the Twins to go one of those routes would feel like leaving an opportunity on the table – opportunity to add one more potential impact veteran bat, and a player who could be useful in additional ways. Here are a few options that stand out to me as potential late-offseason additions capable of upgrading the Twins' lineup and helping fill in at DH with Arraez gone. Yuli Gurriel He was a longtime fixture at first base for the Astros, and preceded Arraez as AL batting champ in 2021. He's also 38 and struggled to an 84 OPS+ this past season, which is why he's still trying to land a contract at this stage of the offseason. Gurriel is a righty hitter, so he doesn't quite fit the bill as a masher to rotate in against RHP, but his splits are fairly neutral. The hope here would be that his bat rebounds, while his contending experience (including 85 career postseason games) and veteran presence combine to deliver a "Nelson Cruz Lite" impact. Interestingly, the Twins have reportedly shown interest in Gurriel of late. Robbie Grossman Our old friend spent three seasons with the Twins (2016-18), accruing a .266/.371/.400 slash line, which is basically Arraez with fewer singles. He's since spent time with Oakland, Detroit, and Atlanta, struggling last year to a .622 OPS. He maintained his usual patience, and the switch-hitting 33-year-old would represent a cheap rebound bet. (In 2020-21 he had a 118 OPS+.) This is the kind of modest gamble the Twins could afford – so long as they're willing to cut the cord relatively quickly if it's not working – because they have so many fallback options in place. Jurickson Profar In terms of the role we're discussing here, this is probably the biggest splash the Twins could realistically make. Profar is one of the best remaining free agents on the market, coming off a 2.5 fWAR season in San Diego. He's an intriguing fit for the Twins as a switch-hitter with defensive versatility. Profar also has ties to Thad Levine from his days in Texas. An acquisition of this magnitude would really put a bow on the offseason, but you wonder if Minnesota's realistically willing to offer enough guaranteed money or playing time to sway the 29-year-old. Miguel Sanó Look, there would be no risk in signing Sanó to a minor-league contract and seeing what he's got in spring training, if he's not getting bites elsewhere. A version of the big slugger that even approximates his career 116 OPS+ would be useful to the Twins as a part-time DH and starter at first against lefties. No one wants to hear it anymore but Sanó was actually hitting the ball reasonably well in 2022, despite the paltry production before a knee injury ended his season. While skill sets like his tend to degrade more quickly, I'm not convinced he's cooked. Franmil Reyes This would be similar to the Sanó gamble, except with a fresh face and less all the baggage. Reyes was of course a highly touted young slugger when Cleveland acquired him from San Diego in 2019, but he's stagnated and regressed after some early success. Alas, Reyes is only 27 and has a .251/.313/.470 career slash line. Why not? As recently as 2021 he launched 30 homers in 121 games with an .846 OPS. Luke Voit Voit would represent a lower-upside but higher-floor variation of the above two suggestions. The Twins wouldn't be banking so much on a rebound because he wasn't bad in 2022, he was just himself: a plodding righty slugger who will strike out a bunch and hit some home runs, translating to average-ish production overall. He definitely belongs at DH but can fill in at first base occasionally. What are your thoughts? Does anyone on the free agent or trade market stand out as a strong fit to you? Or are you more interested in going with internal options?

In "Fun with Player Comps" I look at player comps for 30 current Twins who figure to play a role in 2023, starting with their closest age player from Baseball-Reference.com prior to 2022. Based on each player's general vibe, I then move into the best and worst-case scenarios. Previous installments: middle-infield, centerfield. With my inclusion of Luis Arraez in the middle infield (what was I thinking?!) that leaves Jose Miranda as the only strictly corner infielder on the roster, so he gets lumped in with the Twins' glut of corner outfielders. Based on Fangraphs depth chart projections, the Twins have average to above-average projections at every position player spot, except the corner outfield spots. Adam Duvall won’t change the calculus much, but there is both talent and upside here. Let’s start with the one corner outfielder that may feature neither: Max Kepler Best comp through age 29: Cory Snyder Never heard of him, but Snyder posted some decent power numbers in his early 20s with Cleveland before falling off a cliff in his late 20s. Instead of a cliff, Kepler’s production has been more of an unattended rickshaw rolling down a mild incline and gaining speed, buoyed only by his excellent defensive work. Worst case: Andrew Jacob Cave This feels harsh, but both players hit for low averages, provide nothing against lefties, have average power, and play good corner outfield defense, though Kepler's defense is a solid grade ahead of Cave's. If this scenario holds, let's hope it's with another team, ideally one that greatly overestimates the benefits Kepler will receive from the shift ban, because it isn't likely he will benefit. Sadly, the dumb teams in baseball are starting to invest in more intelligent front offices, leaving only the Rockies as a team that might overpay for Max. Best case: Jason Heyward My methodology here is that I assume Kepler gets worse as he ages. If he stays where he is or even if he unlocks something elsewhere, Heyward is a good comp. Heyward was a decent player prior to signing with the Cubs in 2016, providing power, patience, and either elite fielding ability in right field or decent fielding in center. The Cubs, and many others, felt there was more offense to unlock, and even if that didn't happen, they could at least bank on him being a plus defender. He never did figure it out with the bat and was never worth his contract, but he did provide some value; for instance, in his 2019-2020 seasons, he hit for a combined 106 OPS+. Were Kepler to post a similar number, his plus defense and baserunning could provide real value. If he was traded to a contender, like the Yankees or Dodgers, he might be more agreeable to a platoon and maximize his impact even further. Jose Miranda (No comp available) Worst case: Willians Astudillo If Miranda takes a step back, it will be because he gets too antsy at the plate and turns his elite contact ability into a liability, rolling weak grounders off pitches outside the zone. If pitchers don't think they have to throw him a strike, he won't be able to get to his above-average power, and if he doesn't hit for power, he may end up with La Tortuga in Japan. Miranda's path to being a long-term asset rests solely with his bat, as his defense can only hope to grade out as "doesn't kill ya," and his baserunning is uncomfortable to watch. Best case: Wal-Mart Rafael Devers Devers is an offensive-minded third baseman with elite bat-to-ball skills and prodigious power. Miranda doesn't have the power or the elite natural gifts that Devers has with a bat, but he isn't that far off if he takes a step forward in 2023. in 2018, Devers' first full(ish) season in the majors, he hit .240/.298/.433 with poor defense and 66 RBI. Miranda just posted .268/.325/.426 with poor defense and 66 RBI. If he improves his selectivity, as Devers did in his 2019 breakout, he'll be a big part of the Twins' future. Trevor Larnach (Telling that there are no comps for the next two) Worst case: Kyle Blanks Blanks got a lot of chances as a big-bodied right fielder who looked like he could hit coming up with the Padres. But he couldn't stay on the field and was out of the game at 28. Larnach tantalizes with his tools, but it may be fair to wonder if his large frame can handle the rigors of being a major league outfielder. On the other hand, his injuries in 2021 were of the hand and foot variety. Blanks was victimized by back and Achilles issues, among other ailments. Best case: Paul O'Neill Larnach has a chance to be a better defender than O'Neill but has less contact ability. O'Neill's career line of .288/.363/.470 looks like something Larnach could achieve in his prime if he stays healthy and reaches his potential. To do that, he simply needs his body to cooperate and to lay off breaking pitches like he did the first two months of 2022 when he posted an .890 OPS and strong defensive metrics. Alex Kirilloff Worst case: Nolan Reimold Reimold teased Orioles fans with a solid rookie season in Baltimore. He was a top 100 prospect who had just posted a .831 OPS in 2009 but couldn't stay healthy. Believing in his potential, the Orioles kept giving him chances. Eventually, they gave up and released him in 2014, only to bring him back a year later, which.. didn't go any better. Best case: Less patient Will Clark Clark should probably be a Hall-of-Famer, but he never quite hit for the kind of power that came in vogue among first basemen in the 1990s. Nevertheless, he posted 56.5 bWAR for his career and hit .303. Kirilloff, too, doesn't strike me as the type to post numerous thirty home run seasons even if things break right for him, but his plate coverage and power the other way could allow him to approach Clark's career AVG and SLG numbers. Kyle Garlick (Still no comps for Garlick, who is still with the Twins as of this writing.) Worst case: Josh Hamilton (with the Angels) When Hamilton hit free agency after the 2012 season, no one really knew how to evaluate him, similar to how Byron Buxton may have looked to the market if the Twins had not extended him: He's great, but how often? Luckily for Hamilton, the Los Angeles Angels exist and gave him 113M. Unluckily for the Angels, Hamilton didn't offer the hedge that Buxton does, where he can give you four WAR in half a season based on his defense and baserunning. Hamilton provided 2.7 bWAR in total to the Angels. If Garlick posted those numbers over a two-year span, it wouldn't be so bad, but like Hamilton and Buxton, Garlick has an impossible time staying on the field. Best case: A Good Ryan Raburn year Raburn was a frustrating player to watch and would frequently alternate .500 and .900 OPS seasons. For his career, however, he hit for a .818 OPS versus lefties and, in his good years, was a force from the right side who was generally healthy. Matt Wallner (No comps, he's just a boy) Worst case: Logan Morrison LoMo had some hype as a prospect but almost always disappointed, never posting an OPS above .800 until his outlier year with the Rays when he popped 38 home runs. Besides that, Morrison struggled to stay healthy, swung and missed a lot, and provided negative defensive value. His career bWAR was 3.9. Best case: Joey Gallo Gallo and Wallner may each have a top-five arm for an outfielder in the game, and Gallo made himself into a strong outfielder despite coming up as a third baseman. He swung and missed a ton, but made enough hard contact to be an All-Star. He may have reached another level in 2019 when he raised his average to .253 and had a .986 OPS in July as a 25-year-old. But he broke his wrist and has never shown that kind of output since. Gallo is a frustrating player type, but Wallner getting to 85% of his peak would be a great outcome for such a low-contact hitter. Whatever the Twins achieve in 2023 will hinge a lot on what they get from Kirilloff, Larnach, Miranda, and to a lesser extent, Gallo. If the KLM boys stay reasonably healthy, there’s a good chance one of them truly breaks out, which lengthens the lineup considerably and solves the corner outfield problem. If they stall in their development, that puts a lot of pressure on Gallo to rebound, and in the last installment in this series, I compared him to the White Sox era Adam Dunn. Stay tuned for the next installment, catchers and closers. See previous entries here.

For the past year or so, the Twins' outfield has remained in flux behind the starters. Last year left field was a question mark more often than it wasn’t, and Byron Buxton’s latest injury left him out of centerfield more often than not. Plenty of guys were given chances, and while some are now gone (thanks for the memories, Tim Beckham), the group still has too many mouths to feed. I’d expect the Opening Day roster to have five outfielders, but a few have positional flexibility. Looking at the nine names currently categorized by the 40-man roster, here is a probable path for them in 2023. Byron Buxton This one should be straightforward. If he’s healthy, he plays. Last season the Twins got nearly 100 games out of Buxton despite him battling a significant knee injury early on. Many of his injuries in the past have been fluky, but let’s dream of a world where Nick Paparesta and a new training staff focus on giving us what we’ve all been waiting for. He’s among the best in the game, and Rocco Baldelli’s team is much better when he takes the field. Gilberto Celestino Right now, I’m not sure what to think about Celestino. He has been called on in trade discussions and is a guy I’d prefer not to see the front office move. Last year was a good year of development, and still young; there is plenty of room for him to grow. As a right-handed bat, he has that going for him, and defensively he’s an ideal backup option behind Buxton. Joey Gallo Signed to a one-year deal, there is no doubt that Gallo is making the 26-man roster. He’ll play plenty of corner outfield and can play center as well. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Minnesota have him ready at first base, and despite the bat being his calling card, his athleticism and glove are equally as impressive. Nick Gordon Listed as an outfielder by the Twins roster designation, Gordon filled into a utility role well last year. The bat played more, and although he’s limited on the infield, he played outfield well. Gordon looked the part of a centerfielder at times, and more reps could make that even more fluid. He should be a relative lock for the Opening Day roster and will again play all over the field. Max Kepler If there is a guy to bet on being traded this offseason, Kepler is it. He bats left-handed as too many of his counterparts do, and Gallo wasn’t signed to be a redundant form of what the German brings to the table. There has been plenty of interest in the strong defensive right fielder, and it should be a matter of when and not if he goes. Alex Kirilloff The Twins need this to be the year that Kirilloff’s wrist is right. After undergoing a more intense procedure to shave down his bone, there aren't many other surgical options. All reports thus far have been positive, and Kirilloff is a talent Minnesota has been waiting on at the big-league level for some time. He should factor in most as a left fielder, but he can also potentially be a star at first base. He’ll get time at both spots this year, and the only thing holding him back has been health. Trevor Larnach We started seeing what a rolling Larnach looked like at points last season, but the core muscle injury killed the momentum. He’s a power bat with a substantial amount of plate discipline, and he, too, should be expected to contribute from left field. There is no reason he can’t be a middle-of-the-order bat, and we saw the arm play plenty when opposing runners tried to test him a season ago. Like Kirilloff, health is all Minnesota needs here. Matt Wallner Making his debut after such a solid 2022 in the minors, Wallner looked the part in a very small major league sample size. His 105 OPS+ was above league average; he made substantial strides last year when controlling the zone and taking walks. There is probably no room for him on Opening Day, but Wallner didn’t slow down last year at Triple-A St. Paul and could quickly force Minnesota’s hand if he comes out of the gates hot. The Twins have more than a few decisions to make on the grass this season, and right now, things are a bit lefty-heavy. We’ll see how this turns out before the club shows up in Fort Myers.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done this before to Twins fans. Their offseason mantra is to show patience before making multiple moves closer to the start of spring training. Last year, the lockout impacted the organization's ability to make moves, but the Twins traded for Sonny Gray and signed Carlos Correa in March. Few top free-agent targets remain available, so the Twins need to make trades to supplement the roster. Here are five players the Twins are most likely to trade in the coming weeks. 5. <Insert Utility Infielder Name> Correa's signing to a long-term deal means the Twins can afford to move one of their infielders. The Twins traded for Kyle Farmer to add to the shortstop depth chart, but he is now expendable with Correa in the fold. Nick Gordon is out of minor league options, so the Twins might not see a place for him on the 2023 roster. Neither player would warrant a large return, but the club doesn't need both of them on the Opening Day roster. 4. <Insert Corner Outfielder Not Named Max Kepler> One corner outfielder is the team's most likely trade chip (see below), but the Twins also have plenty of other options at these positions. Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, and Matt Wallner are of similar ages and fit a similar skill set. Larnach and Kirilloff suffered injuries during the 2022 season, which may give Wallner the highest trade value. Teams have also inquired about Gilberto Celestino , but the Twins might need him to be Byron Buxton's insurance. 3. Luis Arraez , Utility Arraez's name has been tied to trade rumors this winter for various reasons. He's coming off a year where he won the AL Batting Title, and Twins Daily named him the team MVP. His trade value may never be higher based on his 2022 performance. Arraez has dealt with injuries in the past, and the Twins may look to capitalize on trading him for controllable starting pitching. Multiple members of the starting rotation have one year of team control remaining. Reports have Miami open to trading multiple pieces from their starting rotation, so that is a possible landing spot for Arraez. 2. Sonny Gray, SP It may seem counterproductive for the Twins to trade their best-starting pitcher if the club wants to contend in 2023. However, Gray is entering his final year of team control, and the Twins might not be interested in signing him to a long-term deal. Other members of the starting staff are returning from injury, so it seems more likely for Gray to be traded over Kenta Maeda or Tyler Mahle . If Gray isn't part of the team's long-term plans, this winter might be the best opportunity to maximize his trade value before he hits free agency. 1. Max Kepler, RF The writing was on the wall when the Twins signed Joey Gallo to a one-year deal; Minnesota will trade Max Kepler . Minnesota has multiple left-handed hitting corner outfield options, and the Twins have two years of team control over Kepler. Offensively, Kepler has failed to replicate his breakout performance from 2019, but he continues to be an elite defensive outfielder. The Twins should be able to get something of value in return for Kepler; surprisingly, he is still on the roster. Who else should be included in the rankings? Will Kepler be the only player traded? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Last season, the lockout forced MLB to allow teams to begin the year with 28-man rosters. The lockout forced a shortened spring training, and baseball was worried about an increased chance of player injuries. For 2023, teams must narrow their final roster to 26 players. Players listed below with the ** are on the bubble for the final roster spots. Catchers (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers Entering the offseason, Ryan Jeffers was the lone catcher on the team's 40-man roster. Adding Christian Vazquez helps bolster the organization's catching depth. Last winter, the Twins traded Mitch Garver to allow Ryan Jeffers to become the primary catcher. However, many teams utilize a multi-catcher approach to keep players healthy and help their offensive production. Minnesota also signed veteran catcher Tony Wolters to a minor league deal, but he likely won't make the Opening Day roster. The Twins will need Walters during the season, and he has caught over 2800 innings at the big-league level. Infielders (6): Luis Arraez, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff**, Jose Miranda, Jorge Polanco Adding Correa to this group changes the entire look of the infield. Farmer can now shift to a utility role and play all over the diamond. He was penciled in as the team's starting shortstop until Royce Lewis returned from his ACL injury. Minnesota is handing Miranda the starting third base job after the team traded Gio Urshela to the Angels. All the projected infielders can be used at multiple defensive positions, which will help Rocco Baldelli create the best line-ups on any given day. Minnesota was in the driver's seat for the AL Central last season before injuries ravaged the roster. Correa's return puts the Twins back in the conversation as a playoff team in 2023 and beyond. The depth here comes from the likes of Royce Lewis, when he returns (hopefully in June or July), who can play all over the diamond. Austin Martin can get whatever time he needs in St. Paul. The team can be patient with Brooks Lee rather than push him up too quickly. Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Gilberto Celestino, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon**, Max Kepler Correa's signing also pushes other players off the 26-man roster. In my initial roster projection, Trevor Larnach was on the bubble, and now he will be in St. Paul's outfield with Matt Wallner. Both players will get playing time in 2023, but there needs to be room to keep them on the Opening Day roster. Kyle Garlick is also an interesting player because there might be other right-handed free-agent upgrades. Joey Gallo and Max Kepler fill similar roles for the Twins, so the Twins will likely trade Kepler, allowing them to carry a right-handed bench bat. Nick Gordon is out of minor-league options so the Twins will keep him based on his breakout performance in 2022. Rotation (5): Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober On paper, this starting five is a group that can win the AL Central, but there are health concerns with multiple pitchers on the roster. Mahle struggled with shoulder issues after the Twins acquired him, Maeda is returning from Tommy John surgery, and Ober dealt with various injuries last season. The Twins have starting pitching depth on the 40-man roster, with Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson ready to contribute at the big-league level. Jordan Balazovic is also an interesting name to consider if he is healthy to start the year. Minnesota has also been rumored to be interested in some of the remaining veteran free agents, but the club may want to rely on its pitching pipeline. Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagan, Jorge Alcala**, Jovani Moran**, Trevor Megill** Minnesota hopes Lopez can return to his previous form and combine with Duran to be a dominant back-end duo. ZiPS projects feel like the Twins' bullpen is top-heavy, which makes sense considering the recent track record of players expected to be on the roster. Jax could be a breakout reliever and fill a fireman role that Tyler Duffey had previously occupied. Pagan continues to be a question mark, but the Twins offered him arbitration, so they hope his performance improves in 2023. The Twins have also shown a tendency to move relievers up and down from Triple-A, a trend likely to continue next year. Minnesota will have some decisions at the bullpen's backend with other 40-man roster options like Ronny Henriquez and Cole Sands. What changes will happen to the team's roster before Opening Day? Where do the Twins rank compared to other AL Central squads? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Coming into the offseason there was no denying that a reunion with Carlos Correa needed to be priority number one. With the Twins never advancing far past their original plan during the season, an offer that Scott Boras would entertain never became present. That meant a pivot needed to happen in acquiring more talent for Rocco Baldelli’s group. Both Christian Vazquez and Joey Gallo are fine additions, but they won’t be enough. It’s certainly possible that whatever is done to raise Minnesota’s payroll as a whole before March is uninspiring. That’s why the bulk of Minnesota’s heavy lifting is going to need to come from within. For a team that believes they were snakebit with injury, and an organization that has seen the graduation of many top prospects, it’s beyond fair to tell those established on the 26-man roster “we need you now.” Among those, these are the five (in no particular order) with the most to prove: Ryan Jeffers This should almost go without saying. The Twins front office had an immense amount of belief in Jeffers when they took him in the 2nd round of the 2018 draft. They then doubled down by trading Mitch Garver to the Texas Rangers prior to last season, and sent the only capable prospect in Ben Rortvedt to New York. Unfortunately he couldn’t recreate the 119 OPS+ from his first 26 Major League games, and instead sank to a career worst .648 OPS while playing just 67 games due to injury. Jeffers looked like he was righting the ship for a time before hitting the injured list, and now with Vazquez in the fold, will be fighting for time again. Gary Sanchez is gone, and the Twins farm system remains relatively empty behind the dish. Having Jeffers put it together would be the long awaited promise everyone has been hoping for. Alex Kirilloff Maybe this is a lot to put on a guy that’s only recently just turned 25-years-old, but Kirilloff is no longer a young player. Still ahead of his prime, the biggest issue here is being healthy and real with where he’s at. Kirilloff never got his surgically repaired wrist right last offseason, and therefore was never able to truly take over in left or at first base for the Twins. He’s now undergone an even more substantial procedure, and while the reports have been encouraging, the waiting game has to end. This is a top prospect that looked like a lineup cornerstone. First base could be his with Miguel Sano gone and Luis Arraez having more utility. Finding a way to be a legitimate big league offensive threat is a must. It starts with health. Trevor Larnach Much like Kirilloff, this is a similar scenario with a player that’s almost an entire year older. Larnach will be 26 for Minnesota this season, and despite the flashes a year ago, he played in just 51 games due to a core muscle injury. The solid on-base and slugging skills are real, and he’s always been praised for his incredible bat. We got to see an advanced defender in left, and that would be a substantial boost to the outfield flanking Byron Buxton. Larnach will be given every opportunity to post better than the 104 OPS+ he had in limited action last season, and there is no reason he should be seen as incapable of reaching that. Staying on the field is a must, and like Kirilloff, he will be expected to contribute from the middle of the lineup. Joe Ryan Maybe this jumps out as a weird inclusion for a guy that was the 2022 Opening Day starter, and someone that posted a 3.55 ERA. The problem is he became a true five-and-dive guy while owning a 3.99 FIP and 4.35 xFIP. Ryan feasted on a lot of bad opponents in the AL Central, but he was battered consistently against better competition. A fine guy to have at the back end of the rotation, Ryan’s necessary workload from 2022 is why the Twins could certainly use another arm better than Sonny Gray or Tyler Mahle. He’ll be 27 this season, and there is no denying this is a quality Major League arm, but with the velocity as limited as it is, does Minnesota have a number three or a number five here? Bailey Ober There are a few other arms that may have merit for the final spot, but it should be the guy currently penciled in for the rotation’s final spot. Ober was good to the tune of a 3.21 ERA and 2.92 FIP last season. Even aside from the more gaudy 4.18 xFIP, the problem has always been what level of reliability he’ll bring to the table. Minnesota trotted out arms in droves during 2022 because guys couldn’t stay healthy. Ober was among them, throwing just 56 innings across 11 starts. 2021 was a professional best inning total going 92 1/3 on the year, but he’s never previously surpassed 80 in a single season despite five years of work. It seems the Twins have developed a capable arm, but it can’t be relied on if it breaks down this often. Looking to rebound in an AL Central that should be tight at the top, it will be on players that have gotten used to the divisional race that need to step up. There is plenty of talent for the Twins to make noise if things break in their direction, but it wouldn’t hurt if they made their own luck as well.