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Though no longer the top destination for statistically-inclined baseball fans online, Baseball Prospectus was the first site to publish and maintain what we now know as WAR--though they have always called it WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player), and continue to do so. They now have a suite of rigorously-derived, state-of-the-art metrics designed to quantify each player's contributions within pitching (Deserved Run Average, or DRA), hitting (Deserved Runs Created, or DRC), and fielding (Defensive Runs Prevented, or DRP). Unlike (for instance) Baseball Reference's and FanGraphs's offensive stats, DRC (and its well-adjusted cousin, DRC+) does not rely solely on actual results, adjusted for league and park factors. Unlike either other site's pitching value estimators, DRA (and DRA-) doesn't focus on actual runs allowed or on fielding-independent pitching (FIP). Unlike Statcast-fueled expected statistics you can find on Baseball Savant, none of these stats are directly adjusted based on the difference between actual outcomes and the average ones on similar batted balls (or opponents' batted balls). Instead, these stats take a more granular, less dogmatic approach. Every plate appearance is accounted for in full. Thus, the framework accounts for the level of opposition and the friendliness of the circumstance in every opportunity being evaluated. This can lead to numbers that deviate sharply from what we saw actually happen, and that always makes fans uneasy, but again, teams sometimes make choices we consider inscrutable. It's by digging deeper into the data and seeing when a player's latent talent and actual contribution might differ from their surface-level production that we can start to explain (or even anticipate) those seemingly peculiar calls. Let's look at some places where the Twins' D-suite numbers and Baseball Prospectus WARP tell an importantly different story than the one more widely-embraced stats have been telling.

Article Update (7:40 pm): On Friday night, the Twins announced that they have tendered 2024 contracts to all seven arbitration-eligible players. It was also announced the Jovani Moran is expected to be having Tommy John surgery in the near future and miss the 2024 season. The Twins are trying to get him to sign a two-year minor league deal. In addition, the Twins did not tender a 2024 contract to RHP Ronny Henriquez. With Moran and Henriquez coming off of the 40-man roster, the roster is now at 36 players. There are 17 pitchers, three catchers, eight infielders and eight outfielders. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- When the offseason began, the Minnesota Twins had nine players on their roster that were arbitration-eligible. Since then, the Twins made quick decisions on two of them. Soon after their playoff run concluded, Jordan Luplow and Jose De Leon were designated for assignment and became free agents. That leaves seven players that the Twins still need to make decisions about their 2024 status. Below, I will run through these seven players and make some notes on each. Several of them may involve answering some difficult questions. A few are pretty easy decisions. Please feel free to ask questions and discuss these decisions in the Forum below. Also, generally-speaking not many pre-arbitration players are non-tendered, but it has happened. We aren't going to try to project which, if any, of those players will be non-tendered on Friday. (Players sorted by MLB Trade Rumors Projections) 2B/OF Nick Gordon Service Time: 2.136 (two years, 136 days, Super 2) Arbitration Year: 1 of 4 Age in 2024: 28 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: If this decision had to be made after Gordon’s 2022 breakout season, it would have been simple. However, Gordon’s 2023 season started out very slow, but just when he started playing well, he broke his leg and was out the remainder of the season. However, he was an impressive teammate and cheerleader for the team in October! Potential 2024 Role: Gordon can play second base and performed well in left field and centerfield over the previous year. In a pinch, he can play shortstop and third base as well. He could be the left-handed side of platoons or a more traditional utility player, capable of playing at least five positions if needed. With the emergence of Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner and Royce Lewis, and the likes of Austin Martin and Brooks Lee potentially ready in the near future, playing time may be more and more limited. Biggest Question Marks: Gordon has had several injuries in his career. And while his 2022 season was just as good as Willi Castro’s 2023 season, Castro is the better defensive player at each spot on the field. Gordon is also out of options, so he couldn’t be sent to the minor leagues by the Twins without going through waivers. Prediction: The dollars are low and Gordon should have value to teams, including the Twins. I would predict that he will be tendered a 2024 contract, although I would think that the Twins front office might be looking to trade him to a team looking for a solid utility option. A trade could happen before Friday’s deadline, or anytime after Friday (assuming he is tendered). RHP Jorge Alcala Service Time: 4.014 (four years, 14 days) Arbitration Year: 2 of 3 Age in 2024: 28 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: After pitching just twice in 2022, Alcala made the 2023 opening day roster. However, after 10 games and 15 innings, he went on the Injured List in mid-May and didn’t return until the final game of the season. However, in that game, he was displaying a fastball between 97 and 99 and a sharp slider. Potential 2024 Role: The “potential” for Alcala has been the same each of the past five offseasons. When healthy, he has a big fastball and quality secondaries that are inconsistent but have big… potential. He has the potential and talent to be the top set up man, joining Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart in getting the ball to Jhoan Duran. I’d like to see what he can do in a fully healthy season. Biggest Question Mark: Health. That’s it. Yeah, he can work on pitches too and become more consistent, but the only way to do that is to stay healthy and get the innings. Prediction: This should be a very easy decision. The Twins should absolutely tender him a contract. If it’s $1 million, that’s fine. A year ago, he avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $790,000 deal, just $70K over league minimum. With his limited pitching the last couple of seasons, I would think he would happily sign a one-year, $900,000 deal, or something in that range. Sure, the team can still look to trade him if someone sends a quality prospect. However, Alcala hasn’t been optioned in the past, so he’s got three years worth of options remaining which might allow him to work on things and get innings if he’s not with the Twins. 1B Alex Kirilloff Service Time: 2.141 (two years, 141 days, Super 2) Arbitration Year: 1 of 4 Age in 2024: 26 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.7 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Because of ongoing wrist pain, Kirilloff’s 2022 season ended after just 45 games. He had a surgery which involved shaving bones in his wrist to help alleviate the pain. The Twins brought him back slowly early in the 2023 season. He missed some time, but generally speaking, his wrist was not an issue. He played in 88 games and posted a .793 OPS with 14 doubles and 11 homers. He struggled in the playoffs and was removed from the roster in the ALDS series against the Astros due to a shoulder injury. He had surgery shortly after the Twins playoff run came to an end. Potential 2024 Role: When healthy, Kirilloff will be the primary first baseman. While his surgery turned out to be much more minor than feared, he could still miss some time early in the season. When he’s healthy, he is potentially an All Star bat. Can he still reach that level? Biggest Question Mark: That is the question. He will get healthy in time, though that has certainly become his biggest issue so far. He was pretty strictly platooned in 2023 due to some horrific numbers versus southpaws. Can he put up decent-enough numbers against same-siders to be an everyday player? Prediction: Easy decision. He will be tendered a contract. Can they negotiate a deal with him and his agent (Boras) to sign a deal for below the projection? Maybe. C Ryan Jeffers Service Time: 3.089 (three years, 89 days) Arbitration Year: 1 of 3 Age in 2024: 27 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $2.3 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: After hitting a combined .203/.277/.384 (.661) in 152 games between 2021 and 2022, the Twins brought in veteran backstop Christian Vazquez on a three-year deal. Early in the season, Vazquez was playing approximately two out of three games. However, Jeffers started playing much better behind the plate and at the plate. In 96 games, he hit .276/.369/.490 (.858) with 15 doubles and 14 home runs. His OPS+ was 134! The Twins played six playoff games in 2023. Jeffers caught all six of them. Potential 2024 Role: Aside from “normal” catcher bumps, bruises and pain, Vazquez and Jeffers remained healthy throughout the 2023 season. The two should continue to split time, with Jeffers getting the start in two out of three games. If he’s hitting like he did in 2023, he could get more DH opportunities too. Biggest Question Mark: He’s a catcher. That alone comes with inherent risks of injury. That shouldn’t be a consideration in this discussion. So the big question for Jeffers in 2024 will be if he can replicate his 2023 success as opposed to revert to his 2021 and 2022 levels. Prediction: Another easy decision. In fact, these two sides should spend time this offseason working on a four or five year deal to keep him in a Twins uniform for a long time. LHP Caleb Thielbar Service Time: 5.131 (five years, 131 days) Arbitration Year: 3 of 3 Age in 2024: 37 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $3.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Since returning to the Twins before the 2020 season, Thielbar has been remarkably consistent, and remarkably effective as a setup man for the Twins. 2023 was the first time in his career that he missed significant time due to injury. He strained his oblique, probably came back too quickly, strained it again and then took longer to return the second time. So, he only pitched in 36 games, but in his 30 2/3 innings, he had 36 strikeouts and just six walks. For the first time since his 2013 rookie season, he had a WHIP of under 1.00. Potential 2024 Role: More of the same from Thielbar. Yes, he will be 37, but he hasn’t lost velocity, and his curveball continues to be a great pitch. He should continue to get crucial spots anywhere from the sixth through ninth innings. He can also continue to be a mentor in the bullpen. Biggest Question Mark: Can he stay healthy throughout most of the season? And obviously can he remain effective for another year? And on some level, how much longer does he want to continue pitching? Prediction: Sure, there are questions, but this is another easy decision for the Twins’ brass. Thielbar will be tendered a contract for 2024. And I would like to see the two sides come together and discuss a longer-term deal. Maybe it’s a series of options. $3 million for 2024, then an option for 2025 at $3 million that vests with 50 innings. If he is between 40 and 49 2/3 innings in 2024, the option vests at $2.5 million. If he’s under 40 innings, there could be a club option at $2 million but if they decline it, there could be a player option at $1.5 million. And, of course, Thielbar would have the right to retire at any point. The lawyers could get involved to creatively work through a one-year deal with a couple of options that would keep Thielbar pitching for his hometown team until he retires. UT Willi Castro Service Time: 4.017 (4 years, 17 days) Arbitration Year: 1 of 2 Age in 2024: 27 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $3.2 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Following the 2022 season, Castro had accumulated just over three years of service time with the Tigers. He was projected to make $1.7 million in his first year of arbitration, so Detroit non-tendered him. The Twins pursued him aggressively and he quickly signed a minor-league deal with the Twins in which he would make $1.8 million if he was with the Twins all season. Because of injuries and more, Castro made the Twins Opening Day roster, and after not playing for the first several games, he found a way to spend the entire season as a very valuable role player with the Twins. He was fantastic defensively at three infield positions. He did a nice job filling in left and center field as well. In his parts of four seasons with the Tigers, he accumulated 0.4 bWAR. In 124 games with the Twins in 2023, Castro ranked third among Twins hitters with 2.6 bWAR. He played strong defense. He hit .257/.339/.411 (.750) with 32 extra base hits. He stole 33 bases in 38 attempts, an element the Twins haven’t had for a long time. Potential 2024 Role: His role in 2024 should be very similar to what it was in 2023. He can play three to five times per week all over the diamond. The fact that he is a switch hitter allows him to give guys off at different spots regardless of that day’s starting pitcher. Biggest Question Mark: He was well worth the $1.8 million in 2023, and we can all picture him continuing to be valuable, but his 2023 production was significantly better than it had been the two previous seasons when he played over 110 games. Won’t the real Willi Castro please stand up? And, how does the front office see the combination of Castro and Gordon in the organization? Can they both be on the roster and provide value? Castro is a year younger. Prediction: This is really the first one where I’ve had to think about how much I buy into Willi Castro’s 2023 season. That said, I think the Twins will tender him a contract, try to come up with a little lower than projected number, and use his switch-hitting and defensive versatility in 2024. IF Kyle Farmer Service Time: 5.129 (five years, 129 days) Arbitration Year: 3 or 3 Age in 2024: 33 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $6.6 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Farmer came to the Twins after the 2022 season from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for RH RP Casey Legumina. At the time, he was technically the Twins starting shortstop. As you all know, after a long and winding road, Carlos Correa came back to the Twins which meant it was back to the bench for Farmer. That said, Rocco Baldelli kept his bench active all season. Farmer got extended time at second base early in the season when Jorge Polanco was out. He got quite a bit of time at third base in between the Jose Miranda demotion and the return of Royce Lewis. And late in the year, he played shortstop most every day when Correa was resting his plantar fasciitis. In between, he was a platoon player, often splitting time with, and mentoring, Edouard Julien at second base. Solid defense around the infield. Fantastic leader and teammate. Generally mashes left-handed pitching. Took a fastball to the mouth and went through multiple surgeries. Potential 2024 Role: It would be the same general role for Farmer in 2024. Depending on how the right side of the infield shakes out this offseason, he could platoon at first and/or second base. He can pinch hit, DH, and even be that emergency catcher. Depending on health, it is likely his playing time would decrease. Biggest Question Mark: Payroll. Just what will the Twins payroll be in 2024. We know it’s going to drop, so can the Twins afford to pay a utility player over $6 million? Unfortunately that is the reality because my sense is that everyone associated with the Twins would love to bring Farmer back. Prediction: This is by far the most difficult decision for the Twins front office. As noted, if payroll remained the same, he would very likely be tendered, but with payroll down, we can’t assume that. We know his value to a big-league roster. You would hate to non-tender him and lose him for nothing. So, I don’t think they’ll do that. I do think that they will try hard to trade him for something over the next 24-36 hours, but if they can’t before Friday’s deadline, I would guess that they will tender him a contract and continue to try to deal him throughout the offseason. There are quick glimpses at the seven remaining arbitration-eligible cases that the Twins front office have to make decisions on before Friday evening. Will they tender all seven? How many do you think they will, or they should tender? Could they be looking to make a trade or two, either of these players or of some pre-arbitration players to make additional room on the roster? How many of these players should be considered for multi-year contract extensions? Feel free to discuss below. And again, check back over the next couple of days to find out what the Twins decided to do.

The lost opportunity of 2020 was no prospect's fault. Minor-leaguers, like many others around the world, were dealt a bad hand; in some cases, at very costly times in their development. Some did get MLB playing time such as Ryan Jeffers who played in his first 26 MLB games in the shortened 60-game season. Others have yet to find the crack on an active roster after missing out on an entire professional season. Enough time has now passed and three full seasons of Major and Minor League Baseball have been completed. So where did each of the Twins' top 30 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline, finish their 2023 seasons? Let’s find out. On active rosters for the end of 2023 1. Royce Lewis At long last, Lewis arrived at the majors full-time, and he did not disappoint. He was still limited to 58 games, returning on Memorial Day and facing strained hamstring that sidelined him from July to mid-August. Lewis returned as the best power hitter with the bases loaded any rookie has ever been. He’s quickly become known as Mr. Grand Slam, per teammate Chris Paddack. He carried the team on his back in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against Toronto, hitting the only two home runs the team needed to win. Lewis has finally arrived and exceeded the expectations that were put on him when he was drafted number one overall in 2017. The next mountain for this future star to climb over is remaining healthy for at least 75% of the season. If he can repeat the same level of success he had in the majors this year, then he will be a force to reckon with in 2024. 2. Alex Kirilloff Kirilloff didn't make it through the playoffs but he finished the regular season healthy. The injuries still derailed Kirilloff even as he reached a career-high of 88 games played in 2023. His best stretch of the season came from Memorial Day weekend until his shoulder injury sidelined him in Kansas City at the end of July, performing as one of the Twins' best hitters at the time. The unfortunate side with Kirilloff is his inescapability of the injury bug, but good news came through when doctors found no tear in his labrum surgery. As of now, he is projected to be fully healthy for spring training, which could lead to the first-ever fully healthy season of his MLB career. 3. Trevor Larnach Larnach had an up-and-down season both literally and figuratively. He split more time between the Twins active roster and St. Paul Saints than any other player. His time in St. Paul showed more flourishment than his time in the majors as he posted a .271/.384/.504 triple slash with a .888 OPS across 323 plate appearances with the Saints. But with the Twins, it was a .213/.311/.415 triple slash with a .727 OPS across 212 plate appearances. While it isn’t quite clear if Larnach will remain a Twin this offseason, his playing time both in the majors and minors over the last few seasons has landed him as a 4th outfielder with this team. Matt Wallner has surpassed him in the pecking order of Twins corner outfielders and Larnach turns 27 in February. If he wants to finally land a full-time role before he’s out of his prime age, he may have a better chance of that with a different team than the Twins. 5. Jhoan Duran Duran looked a little more human in 2023 than his lights-out rookie season last year. Despite that, he was still the hardest-throwing pitcher in baseball topping out the fastest pitch thrown in 2023 at 104.8 MPH. Even with five blown saves on the season and an ERA that jumped from 1.86 in 2022 to 2.45 in 2023, Duran was the man he’s lived up to be out of the bullpen when it mattered the most in the postseason. The sky will continue to be the only limit for Duran in 2024. Twins fans will continue to hope the flamethrowing 26-year-old will continue on his path as one of the best relievers this franchise has ever seen. 6. Ryan Jeffers The catcher's 2022 season pushed him into a backup role, but 2023 saw him improve from those struggles and take over the Twins' starting role in the postseason. With his numbers improving drastically from a .648 OPS in 2022 to .858 OPS in 2023, Jeffers cemented himself as the best right-handed hitting catcher in baseball this year. What’s most impressive, and is due credit to his battery-mate behind the plate, Christian Vazquez, is that both these men were healthy all season. And for the first time in a long time, the Twins had to only use two catchers on the active roster all year. The next hurdle for Jeffers is the amount of games played. He still has yet to reach 100 games played in a season in his career, falling just four short of the benchmark this year. However, if the Twins go through with the possibility of trading Vazquez to save on the payroll a bit, there will be nothing to stop him from 100 games in 2024. 12. Brent Rooker The Oakland Athletics did not have many bright spots in a depressing 2023 season. Fortunately, former Twin Brent Rooker was one of those bright spots. Rooker started off the year hot in April, leading the American League with a 1.245 OPS over 22 games. While he cooled off over the next two months, he was still rewarded with the lone all-star selection from the A’s this season. Rooker returned to performing at his All-Star level from April in the final months of the season, reaching the 30 home run mark with a .817 OPS on the season and playing in 137 games. Rooker will likely remain on the Athletics roster as their top power hitter to start 2024. Unless his breakout 2023 season has enticed a team enough to trade for him and bring him to a team that will be in a better place to contend for the 2024 postseason. 13. Akil Baddoo Baddoo kept himself on the Tigers' active roster for most of 2023 playing in 112 games for the runner-up in the American League Central. But Baddoo has not been able to recapture the magic he showed on the diamond during the first half of his rookie year. Baddoo has worked himself into the 4th outfielder role with the Tigers having only 357 plate appearances across those 112 games. His triple slash wasn’t glamorous by any means as he hit .218/.310/.372 with a .682 OPS. He is still a season away from arbitration eligibility and won’t turn 26 until August 16. Time is still favorable for Baddoo to show the success he had when he burst into the majors, but that will also be dependent on who else finds playing time in the Tigers outfield for 2024. 14. Matt Wallner The Forest Lake native fulfilled expectations that were put to him during his brief call-up in 2022. The Twins' reigning Minor League Player of the Year exceeded his rookie status in 2023 and didn’t disappoint in the 76 games he played in. On top of a .249/.370/.507 triple slash and .877 OPS, Wallner quickly became one of the best throwing arms in the outfield per Baseball Savant landing, himself in the 100th percentile in arm strength. Wallner has forged himself into a power-hitting, laser pointer in the outfield that can throw almost any runner out, and it’s a valuable commodity for where the Twins start their outfield in 2024. As fellow Forest Lake native and avid Twins fan Aaron Rupar has said, “Wallner has done some of the coolest things as anyone raised in that town.” Seventy-six games in 2023 was only a sampling of what he can hopefully do in a full season’s worth of games in 2024. 25. Jorge Alcala 2023 looked to be a bounce-back year at the start for Alcala, who missed the majority of last year due to injury. The season did not turn out as many hoped for him, as he once again was limited to 11 games on the year because of injuries. On top of that, he looked rather dreadful across those 11 relief appearances posting a 6.23 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and walked 10 batters in 17.1 innings. He was left off the postseason roster despite seemingly having recovered from injury. Alcala enters his first year of arbitration this offseason. The Twins may consider cutting him loose due to his bad health and poor performance over the last two years. Alcala will be entering his age 28 season, and could still bounce back. Whether that’s in Minnesota or elsewhere remains to be seen. 28. Ben Rortvedt Rortvedt left the Twins alongside Josh Donaldson and Twin-for-a-day Isaiah Kiner-Falefa as a part of the salary dump of Donaldson to New York for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez. Rortvedt was either hurt or in the minors all of 2022, but that finally changed in 2023 as he made his Yankee debut on May 20 this year. Rortvedt was up and down all season with the Yankees and was far from glamorous. He only had a .118 batting average in 79 plate appearances across 32 games. Of course, his calling card is his defense, and that's been on display during his time in the majors. He'll keep working to carve out a niche as a quality backup. 30. Josh Winder After making 11 starts in the majors in 2022, Josh Winder converted into a full-time reliever with the Twins in 2023. Winder’s season had limitations due to injury but appeared in 40 games out of the bullpen between the majors and minors. Winder’s days as a starter are likely over, but he’s still a valuable asset to be in the Twins bullpen as the front office formulates what it’ll look like in 2024. Especially if he can maintain his role as a long reliever. Injured most of season 11. Matt Canterino Unlike the above players, Canterino did not play in the majors this season. In fact, he did not pitch at all as he recovered from a late-season Tommy John surgery he underwent in August of 2022. Given he is the only player from the Twins' Top 30 prospect list in 2020 to miss the entire 2023 season due to injury, he falls into this category for simplicity's sake. Before his Tommy John surgery in 2022, Canterino made a name for himself at Double-A Wichita. He had a 1.83 ERA in 34.1 innings across 11 games and was talked about as potential bullpen reinforcement for the end of the Twins 2022 season. The front office did add him to the 40-man roster last offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. There have been no indications he will lose that spot this off-season which could make him a sleeper name to break into the Twins bullpen next spring training. 17. Nick Gordon Gordon started the season off cold, but he may have been cursed the same day teammate Kyle Farmer was drilled in the jaw. He only accumulated six hits across 21 games from April 12th to May 9th and just as he seemed to recover from a bad month at the plate, he broke his tibia in a game against the Dodgers on May 17th. The fracture left Gordon on the injured list for the remainder of the season, with other players such as Farmer, Edouard Julien, and Willi Castro stepping up in roles he often filled in 2022. Now, Gordon’s future with the Twins is up in the air. The Twins may not re-sign him through arbitration this season, and it’s more likely than not he won’t be a part of the team in 2024. 22. Jose Miranda It’s easy to say Miranda had the most disappointing 2023 season out of any Twin. The expectations were high coming off a breakout rookie season, but he fell short of them from the start. A shoulder injury in spring training kept him from playing in the World Baseball Classic, but the effects of that injury lingered into the start of the season. Miranda’s power at the plate was all but zapped away as he was homerless through the first 24 games of the season, before finally getting his first two of the year against the Yankees on April 26th in a 12-6 loss. That two-homer game was the high point of his season as he continued to decline in his performance at the plate, never having his batting average above .240 from that day on. Miranda was optioned down to St. Paul to fix his swing on May 10, and even after Lewis pulled his hamstring and landed on the IL, Miranda wouldn’t last more than five games before reinjuring his shoulder and effectively ending his season. Miranda’s future role with the Twins has more questions than answers. He’s fallen behind Lewis at third base on the depth chart, but could still work as the right-handed hitting side of a first base platoon with Kirilloff. Played in 2023, mostly in the Minors or Indy Ball 4. Jordan Balazovic Balazovic’s longevity with the Twins was tittering on the edge to start the 2023 season. Between a spring training scuffle that left him with a broken jaw, and a bullpen role with the Saints that wasn’t faring much better than his 2022 struggles, Balazovic looked as though he might be let go by the team in mid-June. Then the bullpen had too many injuries to count and he was the last man available in the pecking order of the 40-man roster options. His call-up to the majors turned out to be his saving grace. Balazovic didn’t give up a run in 5 innings over his first three career appearances. He had an even more impressive stretch that followed into July over 12 relief appearances, with only one outing in that stretch where he surrendered more than one run. But he ended the year on a sour note and his future with the organization is very much in doubt. 7. Keoni Cavaco The Twins top draft pick from 2019 missed out on what would've been his first pro season in 2020 and never seemed to recover. He hasn't produced at any level since. Cavaco spent the majority of last season with the Cedar Rapids Kernels. He barely hit above the Mendoza line with his batting average at .203 and had an OPS of .574 across 238 plate appearances in 63 games. Cavaco will not be turning 23 until June 2, 2024, but the young infielder will be growing old for the age group at High A. He needs emerge and break out in a big way. 9. Blayne Enlow Enlow spent the first two months of the season at Double A Wichita and had a dominant stretch posting a 3.17 ERA across 54 innings in 10 starts. Those numbers earned him a call-up to the St. Paul Saints in mid-June, and the effects of Triple-A hitting showed against his stuff. Enlow had a 7.94 ERA in 45.1 innings across 15 outings as a starter and reliever for the Saints. His struggles during his first month and a half with the Saints were bad enough to keep his numbers inflated as he improved over the last two months of the season with the Saints. Enlow still has a good opportunity to turn himself around in the early months of the 2024 season with St. Paul to make himself available as a bullpen call-up option to make his MLB debut with the Twins in 2024. 15. Gilberto Celestino Celestino may have spent a few days on the Twins active roster in 2023, but he never appeared in a game. All of his playing time came in St. Paul this year, and even that was limited to 59 games. His numbers at the plate weren’t as eye-popping as his defense still proved to be. Celestino posted a .244/.385/.386 triple slash with a .771 OPS in 245 plate appearances. The rushed development of Celestino during the center fielder shortage of 2021 proved costly to his hitting abilities. And with Castro filling in as the primary backup centerfielder to Michael A. Taylor, his role with the team doesn’t seem to be necessary anymore going into 2024. 16. Edwar Colina Colina made his MLB debut with the Twins in 2020 but hasn’t appeared in the majors since then. He was in the Rangers organization for all of 2023 pitching at Triple-A Round Rock. This marked his first season in professional baseball since his 2023 debut, and he struggled a bit after a two-year absence. Colina had a 4.65 ERA in 31 innings across 26 relief appearances. His most concerning aspect of his return was lack of command as he had 20 walks to 30 strikeouts adding up to a 1.5 K to BB ratio. Colina is in the Venezuelan League this Winter to refine his command and hope for a better outcome in 2024. 18. Travis Blankenhorn Blankenhorn has become a journeyman minor leaguer since the Twins released him in early 2021. This season was spent in the Nationals organization for Blankenhorn and he didn’t disappoint for the Rochester Red Wings posting a .262/.360/.517 triple slash and .877 OPS in 455 plate appearances across 108 games with them. He earned himself a roster expansion call-up in September and played in 10 games with the Nats, but only had a .161 batting average in 37 plate appearances. 19. Cole Sands Sands's greatest achievement in 2023 may have been the amount of MLB service time accumulated compared to amount of pitches thrown with the Twins. Sands pitched a total of 34 games between the Saints and Twins in 2023. His 19 games with the Saints were some of the most impressive from any pitcher on their roster in 2023 as he posted a 1.47 ERA in 30.2 innings of work. His numbers in his 15 games with the Twins weren’t exactly the same, but they still were an improvement from 2022 as he had a 3.74 ERA in 21.2 innings of work with Minnesota this year. 20. Will Holland Holland has never had a full season of success in the minor leagues since being drafted in the fifth round of the 2019 draft by the Twins. 2023 played out similarly to other seasons. He spent the whole season at Wichita and played in 101 games, but his offensive output was poor as he had a .197/.300/.306 with a .606 OPS. Holland has defensive versatility to play multiple positions on the field, but his offensive output at Double-A doesn’t show any signs of a promotion to Triple-A anytime soon. 21. Misael Urbina Urbina had his first full season up at High A but his performance there wasn’t all too impressive. Across 102 games, Urbina had a .180/.289/.282 triple slash with a .571 OPS across 412 plate appearances. Urbina’s development, like many others, saw drawbacks from the lost 2020 minor league season, and that still carried over into 2023 as he reached his highest level of pro ball yet. Urbina turns 22 in April next year with time still on his side but that window is closing on what he can do at higher levels if he doesn’t have a massive turnaround. 24. Yunior Severino No other minor leaguer hit more home runs across all levels in 2023 than Yunior Severino. His 35 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A powered him to an OPS just short of .900, at .898 on the season. Severino still isn’t a top-notch defensive player as he continued to shuffle around the infield playing all positions but shortstop. With the lack of a defensive home and being eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, there’s no certainty that he’ll remain in the organization for 2024. 26. Emmanuel Rodriguez He was signed as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2019, but COVID-19 delayed his first professional season until 2021. In 2023 Rodriguez felt some of the highest highs and lowest lows of his pro career so far. He enjoyed a sky-high walk rate and flashed big power while continuing to play an exceptional center field. At the same time, he continued striking out at a high rate with a lot of swing and miss in his game. Outside of Brooks Lee and Walker Jenkins, Rodriguez is the most exciting prospect in the Twins system. A strong performance in the Midwest League Championship Series has set him up well to start his 2024 season at Double-A Wichita. 29. Chris Vallimont Chirs Vallimont was claimed off waivers from the Twins by the Orioles in May of 2022. Over a year later, he made his MLB debut with the Birds on July 3. But that sole relief appearance where he only faced three batters would be his only action in the majors this year. Vallimont's contract was purchased by the Cleveland Guardians just three days later. He spent the remainder of the 2023 season at Triple-A Columbus throwing out of the Clippers bullpen. In 16 outings, he had an unimpressive 6.52 ERA in 29 innings. Out of professional baseball entirely 8. Wander Javier Javier once looked to be the next coming of Jorge Polanco, but that all dissipated as his performance stagnated and failed to elevate over several seasons. Javier had a minor league deal with the San Diego Padres in spring training but decided to retire from the game in March before the season even began. 10. Lewis Thorpe Thorpe threw his last pitch in the Twins organization on a cold Saturday afternoon on April 16th, 2022. During a comeback attempt with Independent League Kansas City Monarchs, he posted a 4.96 ERA in 81.2 innings across 16 starts, Thorpe then decided to return to his home country of Australia. The Australian Baseball League begins its 2023-24 season on November 16th, and Thorpe has found himself on the minor-league roster of his hometown Melbourne Aces. While his career in the majors may be over, he looks to continue it in the land down under. 23. Dakota Chalmers Chalmers spent time between the Dodgers organization and Independent Baseball in 2022. But his name was nowhere to be found in pro ball for the entire 2023 season. 27. Gabriel Maciel Maciel spent his 2022 season with the Oakland A’s High A affiliate. He elected free agency at season’s end and hasn’t been heard from since. Totals: 11 players on Active MLB rosters 3 players who could be on Active Rosters but are hurt 13 players who are in the Minors, Japan, or Indy Ball 4 players completely out of baseball The outcome from these top 30 MLB Pipeline prospects in 2020 just three years later is a strong showing for the franchise. One-third of the players ended their seasons in the majors, and half of them could find realistically themselves there in 2024. What’s most impressive is that the top six players (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Balazovic, Duran, and Jeffers), all had some form of consistent playing time with the Twins this season. Rarely does a team’s former top five or six prospects earn those opportunities all at the same time, and all have a chance to do so again in 2024.

In 2023, the conversation for the Twins in the playoffs finally changed. There were media outlets in September suggesting it would be good for the five seed to “tank” in order to face three-seeded Minnesota in the Wild Card round since “bulletin board material” didn’t apply to such a cursed franchise. But no longer can the Twins’ chances be reduced to a hand wave and a chuckle – they won as many games as they lost, including nearly handing the Astros a loss in the ALDS for the first time since the Obama administration. Now the conversation has to be (as with all playoff teams) what the Twins need in order to go further in 2024. They didn’t hit much against the Astros (or the Blue Jays for that matter), with a number of their hitters failing to eclipse the .600 mark in OPS for the two rounds. However, we did see evidence of a few guys who could terrify future playoff opponents by virtue of what they did in October 2023. Edouard Julien: He drew five walks in the six games, with three extra base hits and zero errors/misplays on defense. His OPS for the playoffs was a stout 1.043. He did make two baserunning errors, one ghastly (game one of the ALDS), and one a product of bad luck (game four). Julien showed that his blend of power and patience will play in the postseason. His home run and double in game four gave the Twins some life, and his pinch-hit, bases loaded, two-out single in game two sealed a win. He is a playoff caliber leadoff hitter. Royce Lewis: He posted an OPS over 1.100 in the playoffs, with four home runs that put him on the precipice of setting the Twins’ all-time playoff record. After six games. He appeared to press at times, swinging at some spiked breaking balls in crucial moments, but he’s also played in only 76 career games to this point, including the playoffs. Seeing more pitchers and how they attack him should make him even more of a threat next October. Carlos Correa: He also eclipsed a 1.000 OPS, and threw in some of the savviest shortstop play I have ever seen with his pickoff of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and deke of Jose Abreu. His performance sealed his reputation as a known quantity in the playoffs, regardless of how his regular season goes. In 2020, he posted an OPS lower than what he posted in 2023 sans any plantar fasciitis issues. In the playoffs he hit for a 1.209 OPS and six home runs in twelve games that year. That isn’t to say he is automatic in the playoffs, but he will be ready. Jorge Polanco: This one is borderline. Polanco’s .653 2023 playoff OPS doesn’t stand out, except when you compare it to the rest of the Twins’ lineup. He drew four walks and popped a key three-run home run in game one of the ALDS that drew a collective gulp from everyone in the stadium that day. Polanco has proven he can hit in the playoffs. He was one of the few players to show up for the 2019 ALDS, hitting a first inning homer in game one, then tying the game with a single in the fifth. His defense is another matter. He went about 1-4 in fielding chances against Toronto and the specter of his missed flip in 2020 still haunts me to this day. Outside of those hitters and Kyle Farmer, the rest of the position player group didn’t inspire much confidence. Playoff pitching just doesn’t compare to the regular season. It rewards superstars (Yordan Alvarez) and guys who play within themselves (Martin Maldonado). It can be hard to identify who will play the Jason Kubel (1-29 career in the postseason) role in a given playoff series, and the Twins had a few this year. Chief among those was Ryan Jeffers. Outside of two hits in game one of the ALDS, Jeffers contributed nothing offensively. Two walks and a lot of strikeouts. He hit some balls hard, but he also made you wonder if keeping the playoff-tested Christian Vazquez on the bench for every game was the right move. Watching Vazquez’s at-bats down the stretch compared to Jeffers’ catcher-leading OPS made it a justifiable decision, but giving Vazquez a start or two may have butterfly-effected an extra scoring opportunity. We’ll never know. Matt Wallner went hitless in twelve plate appearances for the playoffs, although he did contribute three walks and a key hit-by-pitch. His inability to make contact against jumpy fastballs was exposed, and he’ll have to work and adjust in order to avoid a reputation as a mistake crusher who wilts against good pitching. Max Kepler was victimized by two terrible strike three calls against Houston, and he did collect a hit in his first five games of the playoffs. But even at his best, Kepler isn’t a cleanup hitter for a serious playoff lineup. He struck out 14 times in the six games and was worth -1.6% cWPA (championship win probability added) against the Astros. As a seven hole hitter, his skill set would play a lot better. Alex Kirilloff was playing through a torn labrum in his lead hitting shoulder, and performed as such. He is a little jumpy at the plate, even when healthy (taking strikes, then swinging at balls). But his elite plate coverage and all-fields power could be a major asset on future playoff teams. Now, having only three hitters clicking at the same time can certainly play in the playoffs. The 2019 Nationals provided proof of that concept with Juan Soto, Howie Kendrick and Anthony Rendon delivering a World Series championship that year. But ideally, you would want more lineup depth than that. Wallner has shown an ability to make adjustments, Jeffers has shown an ability to hit good pitching, Byron Buxton is always a wild card, and Kirilloff has shown the skill set to succeed in October. But if the front office doesn’t add another big bat this offseason, that may be a decision they could come to regret, especially given that the pitching will be hard-pressed to match this year's production. What do you think? Is the projected 2024 lineup good enough to take the next step as is, or does it need another piece? Sound off in the comments.

Christian Vázquez struggled significantly at the plate throughout much of 2023. His down year came to a head in the postseason, where his lack of a single appearance confirmed that he's undoubtedly the backup to Ryan Jeffers moving forward. On the wrong side of 30 years of age, and with multiple years of a relatively high salary remaining, could the Twins shake up the catching mix this winter? The Twins aggressively pursued Christian Vázquez last winter, eventually signing him to a 3-year, $30m contract to ensure he came to Minnesota. The bottom fell out in the deal's first year, as Vázquez posted a .598 OPS. His barrel rate plummeted to just 3.2%, and he struck out a career-high 23.1% of the time. At 32 years of age, it's fair to wonder whether this was a skills decline rather than just a down year. To the credit of Vázquez, he was still a plus defender behind the plate, something that the Twins indeed value for good reason. His blocking and framing were still excellent, even if his pop time declined. The defense is a significant consideration for two reasons. From the Twins' perspective, it may help bridge the gap between his offensive decline and the price tag. We know by now that the Twins believe in a near timeshare behind the plate to keep their catchers fresh. As long as Vázquez remains a plus defender, he'll likely still be seen as a perfectly viable option to start roughly half of the time in 2024. On the other hand, the defense could offer one final chance for the Twins to get out of the remaining $20m through 2025. After such a down year offensively, it may be hard to envision teams lining up to trade for Christian Vázquez, but it's not impossible. Just one offseason ago, the Twins had to go to great lengths to outbid multiple other teams. It may be tempting if they're willing to pay down at least some of the money to trade him and have a few million to spend elsewhere. When it comes to backup catchers, there are always plenty of options. Another significant factor in how the Twins pursue the catching position for 2024 likely has much to do with their opinion of Jair Camargo. The 24-year-old spent all of 2024 in St. Paul with a league-average .253/.323/.503 slash line. He slugged 21 homers with adequate defense behind the plate. He may not be a top prospect, but if the Twins believe he can hold his own offensively and play passable defense, he would likely be a fine backup catcher. The allure of this scenario is that Camargo would make the league minimum instead of $10m. The Twins could sign another glove-first backup at a more appropriate price tag, with Camargo still waiting in the wings in the event of injury. There may not be exciting names hitting the open market to replace Vázquez. Still, a player such as Victor Caratini could make sense as a switch hitter who provided near-league-average offense and plus defense last season and still won't break the bank. The Twins will have to decide this winter whether so much shuffling would be worth it at such a low-impact position. With revenues likely to decline with the TV network situation, it could be a reasonable way to save a few million. It's also possible they still see Vázquez as worthy of his $10m price tag, which would be fair given his strong defense. Perhaps they even project him to bounce back to some degree with the bat in 2024. After signing a sizeable three-year deal, it's been an odd first year for Christian Vázquez. Should the Twins look to move on from Christian Vázquez in 2024 to reallocate some payroll? Do they have what they need in Jair Camargo, or can they find another worthy replacement? Let us know below!

One year ago, the Twins wondered what to do about the catcher position. Gary Sanchez had led the team in appearances during the 2022 season but was heading to free agency. Minnesota wanted a veteran player to pair with Ryan Jeffers behind the plate. Early in the offseason, the Twins identified Vazquez as their top free agent target and quickly signed him to a three-year, $30 million deal. The team brought him in to provide solid defense, hoping he could provide some offense at the back end of the lineup. Vazquez struggled offensively during his first season with the Twins. In 102 games, he hit .223/.280/.318 (.598) with 19 extra-base hits and 82 strikeouts. His 65 OPS+ was his lowest total since 2018. According to FanGraphs, Vazquez provided the Twins with $7.6 million worth of value during the 2023 season. Over the last five seasons, Vazquez has been worth anywhere from $28.1 million (2019) to $2.7 million (2021). There have been good and bad seasons throughout his career, so the Twins can hope he bounces back in 2024. Even with poor offensive totals, Vazquez remains a strong defensive catcher. He ranked fifth among AL catchers in SABR’s Defensive Index when the totals were last updated. Baseball Savant ranked him in the 70th percentile or higher in Blocks Above Average and Framing while also being above average in Pop Time. His Caught Stealing Above Average moved from the 34th percentile last season to the 61st percentile in 2023. His defensive numbers and how he handles a pitching staff are the main reasons the Twins continued to split time between their two catchers. Minnesota’s evolving payroll situation is in flux entering the offseason. The Twins are unsure of their television home for 2024 and beyond after their contract with Bally Sports expired at the season’s end. As John wrote over the weekend, the team’s TV rights were worth $54.8 million in 2023, and that revenue is in question for next season. Last year, the Twins' payroll was a team record $154 million on Opening Day, and the Twins have roughly $124 million committed for next season if they bring everyone back besides free agents. The Twins can trade away higher-priced veterans to open some spending, but the team will likely have to pay some of Vazquez’s contract to get anything back. The Twins have an intriguing catching prospect that played the entire 2023 season at Triple-A. Jair Camargo was acquired along with Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers leading into the 2020 season. At the time, he was a 20-year-old catcher who had yet to play a game above the High-A level. In 2023, he played 90 games at Triple-A and hit .259/.323/.503 (.826) with 16 doubles and 21 home runs. Camargo became a minor-league free agent last year but quickly signed to stay with the Twins. He is a logical candidate for the Twins to add to the 40-man roster, and they will need to do so before he again becomes a free agent at the completion of the World Series. Would the front office trust him enough to take over a backup role to Jeffers? The free-agent catcher market is sparse this winter, which might make teams more interested in trading for Vazquez. Former Twins Mitch Garver and Gary Sanchez are some of the best options, and both players have flaws in their game. Garver is seen more as a DH option, with the Rangers giving him fewer than 30 starts behind the plate. In addition to Garver's forearm surgery that cut his 2022 season in half, Jonah Heim has become an All Star backstop for the Rangers. Sanchez struggled to find an organization last season before finding a home in San Diego and posting a 116 OPS+ in 72 games. Neither player is considered strong behind the plate, and that’s why organizations might start looking for trade options. The Twins still like Vazquez, and they likely believe he can return to his previous offensive production. He previously had poor seasons and bounced back nicely the following year. However, Vazquez is 33 years old, and he’s caught over 6,200 innings at the big-league level. That’s a lot of wear and tear on a player’s legs, which can impact offensive performance toward the end of a career. Minnesota must decide which version of Vazquez will enter spring training next season. Depth became a theme for the 2023 Twins, and it’s likely one reason the team won the AL Central. Minnesota was lucky to make it through the season by only needing two catchers for the entire season. That won’t happen again next year, so the Twins will likely keep Vazquez and find other spots on the roster to make cuts. Will the Twins keep Vazquez or try to trade him? What kind of value does he have on the trade market? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

With the season now at a bittersweet end, Twins fans should consider what matters most: our favorite moments when hitters smashed a ball out of the park. Although this list is entirely subjective, I did my best to collect a diverse set of well-timed dingers from the season. Let's review. 13. Joey Gallo Breaks Statcast vs. Hayden Wesneski (Cubs), May 13. Exit Velocity: 110.6 mph, Distance: 422 feet Most Twins fans would probably be happy to forget Joey Gallo’s frustrating Twins tenure. But the former Ranger had a monster start to the season, including a 1.066 OPS in the first month. In particular, how could anyone forget Gallo’s monster three-run shot against Cleveland that broke Statcast, the analytics tracker. Speculation about the distance of the ball took over Twins Twitter—did Gallo break 500 feet?—before the reported distance came in at a surprisingly minuscule 422 feet (the culprit turned out to be the poor launch angle; in fact, Alex Kirilloff hit one the same distance that day). But for those watching, the eye test made it seem like Gallo smacked it to another dimension. 12. Max Kepler Comes in the Clutch vs. Paul Sewald (Diamondbacks), August 6. Exit Velocity: 110.4 mph, Distance: 438 feet Max Kepler was the consensus favorite among Twins Daily writers for Most Improved Player of the Year. Continually cited as a DFA candidate throughout the early months, Kepler's sudden power surge came at opportune times, including several late innings smacks that often turned the scoreboard back in Minnesota’s favor. Just a week after the trade deadlines, Kepler faced down Mariners-turned-Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald. Down a run going into the bottom of the ninth, Kepler wasted no time and launched the pitch to tie the game. It was one of several moments that the right fielder made count in the second half. 11. Matt Wallner Goes Very, Very Far vs. Paul Blackburn (Athletics), September 26, Exit Velocity: 114.5 mph, Distance: 463 feet There was a lot of hope for Matt Wallner coming into the season after his late-season debut in 2022. Even during a slump late in the season, Wallner continued to get on base and prove his worth. During a final week game against the Athletics, Wallner smoked one from starter Paul Blackburn with the bases loaded a massive 463 feet, one of the longest home runs of the season that had fans in the upper deck scrambling for a ball they never expected to land anywhere near them. Expect a lot more like that next season. 10. Carlos Correa Declares His Time vs. Devin Williams (Brewers), June 13, Exit Velocity: 108.6 mph, Distance: 408 feet It became a running joke in my household that I would declare Carlos Correa finally “back,” only to watch another week of struggles due to his injuries. Correa’s lack of clutch hitting this season may have frustrated Twins fans, though most writers on this site would argue his playoff performance wiped away the slate. Even within that struggle, Correa found quite a few moments to awe fans and teammates alike. None felt like a personal victory, as much as a bottom of the 9th smack against the Brewers. Closer Devin Williams had already given away the lead on a Michael A. Taylor home run. Fans were already joking that Correa was due for a double play with a runner on first. Instead, the shortstop took a 1-1 pitch deep to left field to walk it off. He immediately pointed at his wrist in one of his classic moves: “It’s my time.” 9. Ryan Jeffers Lasers the Ball vs. Bryan Abreu (Astros), May 29, Exit Velocity: 117.4 mph, Distance: 374 feet There were several highlights as Ryan Jeffers rose from backup catcher to Joe Mauer’s apparent heir, as both the team and fans saw a swing that seemed full of dynamite. What has always made Jeffers’s dingers fun is how incredibly unique they are. Rather than get the right launch angle, the dingers look like cruise missiles. How else can you categorize this critical extra inning hit against the Astros in May? Coming off the bat at 117 mph, look at how quickly the ball gets out to the Crawford Boxes. It’s a shame Jeffers could not match it during the ALDS, but the potential remains. 7-8. Byron Buxton Obliterates It…Twice vs. Brandon Walter (Red Sox), June 22, Exit Velocity: 112.2 mph, Distance: 466 feet vs. Justin Garza (Red Sox), June 22, Exit Velocity: 111.9 mph, Distance: 465 feet Fans will debate the contours of Byron Buxton’s disappointing season, not only due to the injuries that once again plagued his availability but also the poor performance as a Designated Hitter. Although the All-Star had transformed himself from a hit-and-run guy into a power hitter, the DH position seemed to change his mental stance and balloon his strikeout rate. But when that power came, it sure did. His June 22nd game against the Red Sox showed the Buxton that we all desperately desired, pulverizing not just one but two dingers. The first was 466 feet, and the second nearly matched it at 465 feet. No hitter since the Statcast Era began had ever hit multiple home runs over 460 feet. Buxton’s response? “They all count the same, so if they go over, they all feel good.” Let’s see it again next year, Buck. 3-4-5-6. Royce Lewis, Holy S**T! vs. Xzavion Curry (Guardians), August 27, Exit Velocity: 98.2 mph, Distance: 393 feet vs. Chris Stratton (Rangers), August 28, Exit Velocity: 111.7 mph, Distance: 423 feet vs. Lucas Giolito (Guardians), September 4, Exit Velocity: 107.6 mph, Distance: 401 feet vs. Jesse Scholtens (White Sox), September 15, Exit Velocity: 99.9 mph, Distance: 397 feet How can you even begin to explain it? Royce Lewis, He is Him. Lewis hit four grand slams throughout the season, a ridiculous record that already put him on the top of numerous Twins record lists. They all came after he spent over a month recovering from an oblique strain, almost like he was never injured in the first place. Luck is always a factor in whether a player will even have an opportunity, but Lewis relished it. None of these dingers were particularly unique, but the fact it kept happening, repeatedly felt like a new page of baseball had arrived in Minnesota. If I had to choose only one, I would choose the third against Cleveland. The smash against Lucas Giolito made the game a 6-0 ball game, and, more importantly, signaled to the still barely in-the-running Guardians that their season was over. The Era of Lewis has arrived. 1-2. Royce Lewis Breaks the Curse vs. Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), October 3, Exit Velocity: 105.5 mph, Distance: 386 feet vs. Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), October 3, Exit Velocity: 104.2 mph, Distance: 397 feet I initially began drafting this list before the playoffs. Only minutes into Minnesota’s first playoff game did it become apparent I needed a different home run to top this list. The game that ended Minnesota's 0-18 playoff curse perhaps surprised some as boppers from both sides of the plate went quiet - except one. Minnesota beat the Blue Jays 3-1. The entire difference was, once again, Royce Lewis. Lewis put himself and the entire Twins team on the map through his dingers to left and then to center, both off Cy Young candidate Kevin Gausman. Only to add insult to injury, these were his first two plate appearances in over a week after a hamstring pulled him out of the regular season. The man could barely run to first base, and here he was, creating a Minnesota Miracle. By the end of the team’s run, Lewis popped four home runs over the six playoff games. The cruelest part of the end of the Twins season? Having to wait a whole year for Lewis to cement his name as a new "Mr. October." Did you have any favorite home runs from the season? (Perhaps from the Yankees series?) Include them in the comments below.

Rocco Baldelli’s club was able to accomplish new heights this season because of the roster the front office built. It wasn’t only the talent that the club had at its disposal, but the way the team gelled. Veterans to rookies, and everyone in between, was able to do their job while creating a significant feeling of clubhouse camaraderie. Last week MLB Trade Rumors put out their yearly arbitration projections. The site is the gold standard for such things, and most agreements often fall closely to their suggested numbers. The Twins have nine players eligible for arbitration this offseason, and not all of them are likely to return. Here is how I see the group shaking out: Guaranteed - Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M), Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M) There are a couple of players that may trend towards this designation, but no one hits it quite like Jeffers and Kirilloff do. Minnesota spent $30 million on Christian Vazquez this offseason, and they would probably be open to parting with him this offseason. Jeffers broke out in a big way posting an .858 OPS with a career-high 96 games played. He was originally slated as the 1B to Vazquez’s 1A, but his production forced the Twins’ hand. He will be back next season as the regular starter for Baldelli. At first base, 2023 gave Kirilloff the opportunity to fully establish himself at the position. Not only did he get a late start due to injury ramp-up during spring training, but he also missed time with a shoulder issue. Offseason surgery is again on the table, and while he didn’t do anything to cement his claim at the position, his 117 OPS+ was hardly an issue. He should be expected to be the Opening Day starter at first, but finding a capable right-handed platoon partner makes a lot of sense. Highly Likely - Willi Castro ($3.2M), Caleb Thielbar ($3M) Arguably the team’s MVP for his production as a swiss-army knife, Castro joined Minnesota on a minor league deal after spending the entirety of his career with the Detroit Tigers. He posted a ridiculous 153 OPS+ in 36 games during 2020 as a rookie, but his 106 OPS+ in 124 games this season was much more impressive. He played every position except for first base and catcher while giving Baldelli a switch-hitting option throughout the lineup. He established himself as one of the best utility players in baseball and took that crown from a teammate also on this list. The only real reason Thielbar wouldn’t be back is that his number continues to creep upwards. The Twins haven’t shown an affinity to spend on the bullpen, and this would be more than a $500k jump from 2023. Thielbar’s secondary numbers were not as good as they have been, and he was uncharacteristically burned by the long ball. Houston got him multiple times in the American League Division Series, and though that can leave a sour taste, he is still one of the league’s best left-handed relievers. Somewhat Unlikely - Kyle Farmer ($6.6M), Jorge Alcala ($1M) When Minnesota acquired Farmer from the Reds, I was told that his presence was the exact type of player the franchise desperately needed a season ago. A consummate professional who can be a steadying voice in the clubhouse, he continued to go out and do his job. He provided the same offensive value he gave Cincinnati each of the past two seasons and proved invaluable as a starting-caliber shortstop when Carlos Correa missed time. His number jumping up another $500k or so makes the decision difficult, but for a team looking at a level of veteran continuity, it could be sensible to bring him back. At just $1 million, it’s not that Alcala is expensive. He has been paid at the Major League level for quite some time to produce very little, however. A mainstay on the 60-day injured list, Alcala has thrown just 19 2/3 innings since 2021. When he did pitch this year, he was not good, and the secondary numbers have never agreed with the level that the production has equated to. Minnesota could bring him back to round out the pen, but finding another Brock Stewart, Jeff Hoffman, or similar minor league signing to take a spot probably has a higher success rate. Highly Unlikely - Jordan Luplow ($1.6M), Nick Gordon ($1M), Jose De Leon ($740k) We already saw the Twins go down the hole of designating Luplow for assignment. Rather than completing the process, they kept him around and he ultimately made it through the end of the season. He was brought in off of waivers from Toronto after the front office decided against doing anything at the trade deadline. It was odd to decide the right-handed bat was necessary just days after opting against a better trade option, but he’s not someone who can’t be replaced internally. This was nothing short of a lost season for Gordon, who started badly and finished injured. He never made his way back to the Major League roster and owned a .503 OPS in just 34 games. He carved his way into the Twins' plans, despite being a former first-round pick with lost prospect luster, by creating defensive utility. Castro all but took over that role, and did so at a higher level. For $1 million it’s not going to break the bank to keep him around, but with Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, or a few other prospects close it’s hard to find room for him. Once the dangled return from the Dodgers in exchange for Brian Dozier, De Leon made his way to Minnesota as a minor league free agent. He started a game and made 11 other appearances totaling 17 1/3 innings. Despite looking like a decent relief option, he blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career. It was a disappointing result for a guy who has already battled back so many times. There’s no reason to offer him arbitration, but Minnesota could stay in touch and look at keeping him around on another minor-league deal. What do you think of the players up for arbitration from the Twins? Who would you keep and who would you part with? Share your thoughts in the comments.

I want to start by saying that, at long last, a lot went RIGHT for the Twins in these playoffs. They snapped a 19-year losing streak, they triumphantly swept the Blue Jays at home, and they made the defending champs sweat in the ALDS. You're not going to catch me calling this year a failure. But at the end of the day, the Twins did come up short. And they did so in rather painful fashion, after Sunday night's victory set them up in very favorable position to come home and take control against the Astros. So here in this postmortem, we'll dissect four key things that went wrong for the Twins and led to their exit in the second round of the playoffs. 1. Legitimate fears came to fruition. This is the banner headline that encapsulates several different subplots. The frustrating thing about Minnesota's most fatal flaws in the postseason is that, in many cases, they weren't that hard to see coming. These were concerns that long loomed in our minds, and caused apprehension as we looked ahead to the high stakes of October. In particular, these are three striking examples of how our fears turned into reality. The offense goes back into its shell: Performances like Tuesday and Wednesday were the team's calling card in the first half, as they compiled strikeouts at a historic rate and frequently no-showed in the runs column. Even with all the improvement in the second half, those kinds of games were still mixed in -- the byproduct of a lineup prone to striking out in bunches, and shriveling up in damage spots. Regression slaps Sonny Gray in the face: There were clear signs of unsustainability in the 33-year-old's phenomenal regular season numbers. Namely: Gray's penchant for wriggling out of jams and limiting home runs to an extreme degree. All that regression pretty much came to a head on one devastating pitch to Jose Abreu with two runners on in Game 3. Alex Kirilloff playing hurt: The oft-injured first baseman missed all of August with a shoulder issue that seemed pretty serious, but made it back to play 19 games in September. His numbers were fine (.766 OPS) but Kirilloff hardly looked like he was at his best, and the team noticeably took it easy with his usage. Fears that his shoulder might still be bothering him were confirmed when AK exited Game 3 and was removed from the roster afterward. 2. Ryan Jeffers failed to live up to the team's hopes. The Twins really put their eggs in the Jeffers basket, and understandably so. He had a tremendous season, ranking second among MLB catchers in wOBA and second among all Twins position players in fWAR. Rocco Baldelli figured he had a big advantage in being able to run out that kind of bat behind the plate, so he did so in all six games. Unfortunately, Jeffers did not deliver, managing just two singles and two walks in 25 plate appearances. The decision to use Jeffers exclusively meant, in turn, that Christian Vazquez saw zero action in the entire postseason. Again, it's justifiable given how bad his bat was all season, but Vazquez was signed in large part for his seasoning on the big stages of Boston and Houston. He's battle-tested, but never got tested in this losing battle. 3. The lefty bats couldn't capitalize or cash in. One of the biggest reasons for optimism around the Twins in these playoffs was how well their lefty-powered lineup was set up for success based on match-ups. Minnesota's ALWC opponent, the Blue Jays, threw two right-handed starters. The Astros brought a bullpen devoid of lefty arms into the ALDS. Players like Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, Max Kepler and Matt Wallner were in a position to shine after hammering right-handed pitching all year long. With the exception of Julien, none did. Kirilloff went 0-for-9 while playing hurt. Wallner was 0-for-8. Kepler went 5-for-23 (.217) with 10 strikeouts, one walk, one run scored, and zero batted in. He struck out looking at strike three to end the Twins' season on Wednesday, exploding into frustration as his lifetime playoff average dropped to .146. 4. Caleb Thielbar's biggest weakness came to bite him. Thielbar has been a spectacular performer and awesome story in the Twins bullpen. Returning from pseudo-retirement in his mid-30s, he's put together one of the better multi-year stretches for a reliever in Twins history, posting a 3.21 ERA since 2020. He was really good once again this year, despite missing time with an oblique injury, but one issue haunted the left-hander: home runs. He gave up seven this year in just 30 ⅔ innings, with his fastball victimized most frequently. Here, in contrast to Sonny Gray, you'd hope for a little positive regression; home runs had never really been a big problem for Thielbar in the past, and 30 innings is a small sample size. But the long ball was most definitely a problem for Thielbar in this ALDS. In Game 1 he gave up a homer to Yordan Alvarez, extending Houston's lead from one to two in the seventh inning. That one hurt, coming immediately after Minnesota's offense narrowed the deficit in the top half. But it didn't hurt as much as the next one. On Wednesday, Jose Abreu got hold of a 1-0 pitch from Thielbar -- a fastball -- and drove it over the fence in right for a tie-breaking (ultimately game-winning) home run. According to Baseball Reference it was the single most pivotal play of the series. Mistakes and missed opportunities are magnified on the big stage in October. These are the ones that will have an outsized impression in my mind as I look back at this run and what could've been.

Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (43 Pitches, 28 Strikes, 65%) Home Runs: Jorge Polanco (1), Royce Lewis (3) Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-.159), Alex Kirilloff (-.130), Matt Wallner (-0.96) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The Twins took care of business at home against a mercurial Toronto Blue Jays team, allowing one run over the two games en route to the first postseason sweep in Twins/Senators history. Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray were as advertised, but the offense let quite a few opportunities slip away. Against the defending champion Astros, the lineup would likely need to produce. The Astros were the only AL team that outhit the Twins in the second half, and still feature a menacing, experienced lineup. The Twins turned to Bailey Ober for game one, citing the Astros lack of at-bats against him, as well as Joe Ryan's inability to keep the ball in the ballpark. It would seem Ober had the moxie to take on a tough team on the road, given his domination this year against the Orioles in Baltimore (7 IP, 0 ER), and against the Dodgers in LA (6 IP, 1 ER). The Astros started the legendary Justin Verlander. He has not quite pitched to the elite level he had established over the years, but maintains decent velocity, exceptional command and knee-buckling breaking stuff. The casual fan might think this was a lopsided pitching matchup, and they would be proven right. The first inning started great. Edouard Julien drew a walk as Verlander had trouble commanding his breaking pitches. Jorge Polanco then drove a hanging curveball for a sharp single. Royce Lewis then got ahead in the count before grounding into a double play to extinguish most of the rally. Max Kepler then walked, but Verlander got Alex Kirilloff to tap out to end the threat. A 23 pitch inning with only 10 strikes from Verlander might have been considered a win. But as he has done so often, Jose Altuve jumped on a first pitch fastball and crushed it 377 feet for a 1-0 Houston lead. Ober settled down after that, getting pop-ups from Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu and convincingly striking out Yordan Alvarez on a high fastball to limit the damage. The Twins built another threat in the second. After Carlos Correa bounced a single off the second base bag, Matt Wallner lined out. Ryan Jeffers then drove a hanging breaking ball into left field, giving the Twins runners on first and second with one out. Michael A. Taylor then jumped on the first pitch, a fastball, and tapped into an inning-ending double play. After an uneventful bottom of the second, Julien started the third by banging an 0-2 fastball off the wall in left-center field for a double. But after a Polanco strikeout, Royce Lewis lined a grounder sharply to Bregman, who caught Julien trying to advance and tagged him out after a brief run-down. Kepler then struck out on a beautiful curveball from Verlander to end the inning. After impressively getting Altuve to pop out to start the third, Ober had a slide slip out of his hand that hit Bregman. He then threw a middle-middle changeup to Alvarez, who does not miss such pitches. 3-0 Astros. That spelled the end of Ober's outing. Kenta Maeda was warming prior to Alvarez's home run, and entered to start the fourth. It is unclear whether Ober would have been allowed to go longer had he kept the score 1-0, but in any event Maeda worked a scoreless fourth. He pitched around a single and walk to Martin Maldonado, but got Altuve to ground out to end the frame. Unfortunately for the Twins, Verlander had found his command by that point and started mowing down hitters with ruthless efficiency. Taylor was mercifully hit with a pitch behind in the count in the fifth, but Julien and Polanco struck out on curveballs to end whatever threat that represented. The Astros added insurance in the fifth. Bregman singled and Alvarez drew a walk. After a Tucker lineout, Abreu popped up to left field. However, Wallner was shading Abreu to the gap and couldn't it down, allowing the fourth run to score. Chas McCormick then singled sharply to Wallner, who came up firing to nab Alvarez at home. Abreu deked Kirilloff into cutting the ball off to retire him at third while Alvarez score the fifth run. It is hard to say if Wallner's throw would have been in time, but it certainly looked like there was a chance. Chris Paddack took over for Maeda in the sixth and pitched a perfect inning. Good timing, because Verlander was out of the game after six. Wallner led off the seventh with one of his customary hit-by-pitches, Jeffers singled, and after two strikeouts, Polanco launched a Hector Neris fastball for a three-run homer. Lewis then followed with a homer of his own to cut the lead to one. Unfortunately for the Twins, Alvarez was due up the next inning. After Paddack retired Bregman on strikes, Rocco Baldelli brought in Caleb Thielbar to face "Air Yordan." Thielbar has struggled with the home run ball, and Alvarez doesn't care who pitches to him. A curveball was left up just a little, and the Astros' DH crushed it to make it a two-run game. This was crucial not just for its impact on the game, but the rest of the series. The Twins purposely did not carry Kody Funderburk this round, mainly because the Astros lefties don't have much in the way of platoon splits. If Thielbar was supposed to represent the Twins' counter to Alvarez/Tucker, that didn't get off to a great start. It will interesting to see whether Thielbar gets another crack at them. Another key play happened after Abreu walked. Trying to advance on a wild pitch, Jeffers gunned him down as he appeared to coast into second Correa seemed to deke Abreu by motioning for Jeffers not to throw, then made a quick tag for the final out. The Twins threatened again in the eighth, with Correa delivering his second hit, a leadoff double against Bryan Abreu. But Wallner and Jeffers struck out, while Willi Castro grounded out sharply to Altuve to end the frame. Ryan Pressley pitched a 1-2-3 ninth for the save. The good: Polanco took good swings all night and looked more comfortable at third, making a nice spear of Tucker's line drive in the fifth. Lewis got his first hit since his second home in game one against Toronto, and made it count with a long home run in the seventh. Paddack was sharp, retiring all four batters he faced. The Twins got to Neris for four runs and forced ace reliever Bryan Abreu to throw 29 pitches. Correa had two hits and was again impressive in the field. Jhoan and Duran did not have to pitch, while Abreu and Pressley did, portending a potential advantage in game two. The bad: Ober made two bad pitches, and paid a big price. Maeda was dinked and dunked into allowing his two runs, but clearly wasn't the shutdown reliever he had been with the Dodgers. Julien made his crucial baserunning mistake after his double to start the third. He may have thought there were two outs, or he just lost focus. Either way, it cost the Twins while Verlander was still finding his command. What’s Next: Pablo Lopez (11-8, 3.66 ERA) faces off against Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.45) as the Twins look to even the series. Postgame Interviews: MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Maeda 0 0 0 0 0 43 43 Thielbar 0 10 4 0 0 18 32 Durán 0 14 13 0 0 0 27 Jax 0 8 15 0 0 0 23 Paddack 0 0 0 0 0 19 19 Varland 0 2 17 0 0 0 19 Pagán 0 0 0 0 0 14 14 Stewart 0 0 13 0 0 0 13 Funderburk 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

The 2023 season was out of the norm for the Minnesota Twins in that they carried more depth than the organization had previously shown an inkling to, and pitching became a strength fans haven’t seen in quite some time. Making a move to acquire pitching prior to the season, the Twins parted with their 2022 MVP in Luis Arraez. Pablo Lopez ultimately became everything the organization had hoped would be, and the deal looked like a good one for both sides. Rocco Baldelli again had to manage through more than a few key injuries, and he had plenty of youth step in along the way to help the club hold serve. Holding off the Cleveland Guardians was a bit hairy at times, but Minnesota ultimately won the division going away. Although the MVP in both leagues is often seen as a hitter’s award, it became too obvious to ignore the strength of Minnesota’s pitching this season. With Lopez finishing second in the voting, Sonny Gray earned the Twins Daily selection for the 2023 Minnesota Twins Most Valuable Player. Acquired from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for former first round pick Chase Petty, Gray was a piece Derek Falvey thought that Rocco Baldelli’s starting rotation desperately needed. A proven veteran with a track record of strong performance, the hope was that Gray could lead a patchwork group. In 2023, Gray did the leading and then some. Despite Lopez pitching on Opening Day for the Twins, it was Gray who spoke up during spring training and then continued to back it up all season. Talking about the short starts that became customary for Minnesota pitchers in 2022, Gray conveyed a desire to go deeper into games and have the starting pitchers impact more games. With a better overall group, it wasn’t a surprise at all that Baldelli found himself with a group that could save a bullpen. Logging 184 innings across 32 starts, Gray blitzed by the 119 2/3 tally he posted last season. Remaining healthy for the duration of the season was certainly a big key, but the quality of performance was also substantial. Gray finished with a 2.79 ERA that was right in line with his 2.82 FIP. His 2023 ERA was the lowest total he has posted as a big leaguer since 2015, and the innings were higher than at any point since that same season. Gray’s performance allowed him to make an All-Star appearance for the first time since the 2019 season, and he was more than a deserving participant as a pitcher for Minnesota. Joined by Lopez from the rotation, the pair enjoyed a nice week of celebration in Seattle at T-Mobile Park. Over the course of his career, Gray has struck out 200 batters just one time (2019). His 183 strikeouts matched the same total from his 2014 season, and he sat down batters while keeping them from burning him with the big fly. Surrendering only eight home runs across nearly 200 innings of work is impressive, and the 0.4 HR/9 was not only a career best, but led the league as well. Considering how dominant New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole performed this season, it was going to be difficult for Gray to find himself near the top of the American League Cy Young voting. Still, he will wind up with a deserving number of votes given the totality of his production. Not only did his 5.3 fWAR lead all Twins pitchers, but it was 3rd in all of Major League Baseball, and led the American League. In the final year of a contract paying him $50.7 million over five years, Gray will be a free agent this offseason. It stands to reason that the Twins will unquestionably hand him a qualifying offer, estimated to be around $20 million for the 2024 season. Despite passing comments on retirement, this appears to be a prime opportunity for Gray to cash in on another multi-year deal, and how much he grabs from the open market has only gone up with each outing he has made for Minnesota. It’s because of the performance Gray has shown this season that both he and Lopez become no-brainer decisions to start key games in the postseason. The Twins' strength has been on the mound all year, and their pitching racking up a major league record in strikeouts is a testament to that fact. While the lineup had plenty of key producers, especially down the stretch, finding consistency in the form of Gray has been unparalleled during 2023. Join me in congratulating Sonny Gray on being named the Twins Daily Most Valuable Player for the 2023 season. Final Balloting Points Tally Sonny Gray 87 Pablo Lopez 72 Max Kepler 56 Royce Lewis 43 Ryan Jeffers 33 Edouard Julien 32

Before we begin, a word of caution to this year’s winners. Last year's winners didn't find much success in 2023. Griffin Jax saw his advanced stats drop across the board after receiving honorable mention in 2022. Luis Arraez got traded after being mentioned. Gilberto Celestino barely made it back to the major league squad and just got designated for assignment. Nick Gordon won the honor in 2022 and then fractured his leg in Dodgers Stadium mid-May and has yet to return to the Twins. Usually you win an award such as “Most Improved” by struggling at some point, so regression might be inevitable. For now, let’s enjoy this celebration of improvement, and we’ll worry about next year…next year! 2023 Honorable Mentions Willi Castro: .257/.339/.411, .750 OPS, 8.3% BB rate, 24.2% K rate, 2.7 bWAR, 2.5 fWAR When the Twins signed Castro to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training before the 2023 season, expectations were low. It’s not often that a Detroit Tiger castaway finds success elsewhere, and the signing was viewed as a low-risk insurance policy on spring training injuries. In April, Castro found his way into the lineup, and it didn’t go well. His .176/.300/.324 line actually looks better than it felt in real time. But as Greggory Masterson pointed out in August, the misfortune and timing of teammates’ injuries allowed Castro to remain in the big leagues and he began to find his niche in the offensive and defensive game plans for the club. Perhaps most importantly, Castro single-handedly forced the Twins to start stealing bases again. His 33 swipes paced the club (team total was only 86), and it was his relentless pursuit of taking an extra base in May that put the strategy back on the map for a reluctant coaching staff. As Hunter McCall noted in July, Castro went from castaway to part of the long-term mix due to his utility and speed. Not many infielders could make this play a reality. And not many outfielders could make this play a reality. Castro made both plays, and then some. Therefore, we have honorably mentioned him. Emilio Pagan: 69.1 IP, 2.99 ERA, 23.8% K rate, 7.7% BB rate, 1.4 bWAR, 1.1 fWAR, 0.952 WHIP In a Week 3 game in Boston, Emilio Pagan surrendered six runs to the Red Sox, raising his ERA to 7.88 over six appearances, and all but guaranteeing a raging fan base and a relegation to low-pressure relief outings for the remainder of his disappointing Twins career. As the Twins head into the playoffs, Pagan found a way into the most crucial moments of the stretch run, lowered his OPS from .776 to .553 from 2022 to 2023, and limited his opponents to five home runs over the course of the entire season, down from 12 in 2022. The turn-around was everything that Twins management had expected, Twins fans had scoffed at, and the team desperately needed in a season where key bullpen arms continued to find their way to the IL or struggled in key situations. Lou Hennessy named the “Paganaissance” in July, and Matthew Taylor offered apologies on behalf of Twins Territory for our lack of faith. If the Twins finally break their postseason curse, Pagan will be a key reason why. Ryan Jeffers: .276/.369/.490, .858 OPS, 9/9% BB rate, 27.8% K rate, 3.3 bWAR, 2.7 fWAR Ted Schwerzler pointed out at the end of July that Jeffers was starting to figure out what everyone suspected he was capable of. The “breakout” tempered somewhat in September, but Jeffers’ power did come alive as the season ended (nine of his 14 home runs were hit in August/September). He found himself pinch hitting and being thought of as an offensive threat again as the year went on. Defensively, Jeffers improved behind the plate by throwing out 25% of runners, his highest rate in four seasons. He registered positive runs above average across the major defensive advanced stat metrics, and managed to stay consistently sharp despite platooning 50/50 with Christian Vazquez all season. How that ratio changes in the postseason remains to be seen, but since the Twins are undefeated in the games Jeffers has homered in his ability to contribute to playoff success as a game changer both at and behind the plate is obvious. 2023 Most Improved Twin! Max Kepler: .260/.332/.484, .816 OPS, 9.2% BB rate, 21.6% K rate, 2.9 bWAR, 2.6 fWAR At the Eating Crow diner, the number one spot on the menu is reserved for the Kepler-burger. Hopes were high for the long-time Twin with the removal of the shift and with his health finally operating at full speed. April couldn’t have gone worse for the Twins right fielder, or so we thought, but he proved us wrong with an even worse May performance. Kepler entered June with a slash line of .195/.273/.398 (.671), and yet the Twins held fast to their desire to send him out into the outfield day in and day out. Their resolve and belief paid off, and Twins Territory happily ate their Kepler-burgers. August’s line of .314/.392/.616 (1.008) couldn’t have come at a more necessary time, and his 24 home runs and 66 RBI paced the club. Most important for the Twins playoff hopes, Kepler came through in the clutch more often than any other Twin in history. Kepler’s rise from “bench him!/trade him!/cut him!” pariah to gold glove candidate with Team MVP potential has been well documented on Twins Daily. See Matt Braun’s or Greggory Masterson’s articles to ride the rollercoaster that was Kepler’s season. So it is with great jubilation and much satisfaction that we award Max Kepler with the Twins Daily 2023 Most Improved Player Award. He was the clear choice, and this redemption story couldn’t have found a better young man to star in it. Will the Twins pick up his option for 2024 and continue the story? Kepler’s ability to keep this feel-good season rolling through the playoffs will go a long ways towards answering that question. For now, let’s just enjoy the season that was before we turn our eyes towards World Series dreams. What are your thoughts on selecting Max Kepler as the Twins Most Improved Player? How about the other candidates? Anybody that you would remove or add to the list?

This is Part 3 of a series looking at how much the Twins organization has turned over since the beginning of the club's infamous 0-18 streak. For the best reading experience, start with Part 2, which reviews the 2004 and 2006 playoff teams and outlines the concepts and aim of this series. 2019: Full-Frontal Offensive Assault One more suit change: a third manager. Rocco Baldelli became the third captain of the ship before the 2019 season. Joe Mauer, the last piece even tangentially related to the 2004 series, had also retired. If you believe that a ship can change if enough boards are removed, we're out of swaps to make unless you're clinging for your life to the Dave St. Peter part. Nothing remains of the 2004 iteration. Most positions have had at least four different players manning them in the intervening iterations. This team, which set the single-season home run record in the regular season, returned several participants in the 2017 Wild Card game. Jorge Polanco, who this year snapped a streak of five consecutive trips to the playoffs with a different starting shortstop, was joined by German Wunderkind Max Kepler, free-swinger Eddie Rosario, Swiss Army knife reliever Taylor Rogers, and Jose Berrios, who was used as a reliever in the 2017 Wild Card but had established himself as the team's top starting pitcher. Lumbering slugger Miguel Sano played third base, which he would have in 2017 had he not had to get a titanium rod put in his leg toward the end of that season. Fellow former ultra-prospect Byron Buxton had played in the 2017 game until an injury at the wall forced his removal, and he had likewise had an early end to his 2019 at the hands of an outfield wall. Added to this fourth core were veteran role players C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, and Marwin Gonzalez. Nelson Cruz, the best free agent signing in decades for the club, was the clubhouse leader and the team's face. Mitch Garver had emerged as the top catcher, winning a Silver Slugger and starting all three playoff games. Fourth outfielder Jake Cave was pushed into service. A young infielder named Luis Arraez (batting average, ever heard of it!?) started at second base—the sixth different second baseman in six playoff appearances (Cuddyer, Castillo, Punto, Hudson, Dozier, Arraez). Ehire Adrianza and Jason Castro played significant roles on that team but did not see any playoff action despite playing in the 2017 game. On the pitching side, Berrios was joined by Jake Odorizzi and Randy Dobnak (whose former employment will NOT be mentioned in this piece). The bullpen was almost wholly overhauled between the 2017 Wild Card and 2019 ALDS, including team veterans Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, and Kyle Gibson all pitching out of the bullpen. Frisby-throwing Sergio Romo was also a major cog. Pop-up bullpen pieces in 2019 also made appearances (and many fans will never let you forget it): Cody Stashak and Zack Littell notably pitched in the middle innings, and Devin Smeltzer threw 3.1 scoreless innings after Dobnak's early exit in Game 2. Flame-throwing 20-year-old Brusdar Graterol found his way into a game, also. However, the same shanty continued to be sung. Not even the greatest power offense in baseball history could stop the rising tide. The count is 16. Returning pieces from 2017: José Berríos, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario New pieces in 2019: Luis Arraez, Jake Cave, C.J. Cron, Nelson Cruz, Randy Dobnak, Tyler Duffey, Mitch Garver, Kyle Gibson, Marwin Gonzalez, Brusdar Graterol, Zack Littell, Trevor May, Jake Odorizzi, Sergio Romo, Miguel Sanó, Jonathan Schoop, Devin Smeltzer, Cody Stashak Italics indicate the player never appeared in the playoffs for Minnesota after this year 2020: The Ghost Ship Let's just say that the world contracted scurvy and leave it at that. The most recent trip to the postseason for your Minnesota Twins came at the end of a truncated 60-game season with an expanded playoff structure, so the Twins were only guaranteed two games. The streak could only grow by two games, max. It's striking how similar the 2020 team was to the 2019 team in its construction. Nearly all significant players returned to run it back, though on the hitting side Schoop and Cron—both 20-homer hitters, mind you, hit free agency. Arraez was prepared to take over second base fully, and former MVP third baseman Josh Donaldson, the largest free agent signing in team history to that point, bumped Sano over to Cron's spot at first base. Donaldson was not healthy enough for the playoffs, so he doesn't even factor into this discussion. Buxton was dealing with a brain injury following getting plunked in the head during the last series of the season, but he still unadvisedly started the first game and pinch-ran in the second, getting picked off at first in a crucial moment. Alex Kirilloff debuted in the playoffs that year. Ryan Jeffers started at catcher, partly due to his hot start to his career but also because of injuries and a lack of effectiveness in the other catchers. These two represented the first appearance of a fifth core. Willians Astudillo, a member of the 2019 team who did a little bit of everything a little bit less than optimally and true backup catcher Alex Avila were the only two other new batters who played in the 2020 Wild Card. However, they registered one plate appearance combined. On the pitching side, Berrios was joined by Kenta Maeda, who finished second in the AL Cy Young voting after coming over in a trade that sent Graterol to the Los Angeles Dodgers. There were only two games, so there were only two starting pitchers. Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May, and Stashak all returned to throw in the 2020 playoffs, the first four representing the high-leverage portion of the bullpen, but Stashak is best remembered as a cudgel used to criticize Baldelli for bullpen mismanagement. He replaced Berrios in the sixth inning of Game 2, allowing the winning run in his second frame of relief. Minnesota local Caleb Thielbar made his heroic return to the big leagues—after taking a coaching job at Division II Augustana in Sioux Falls—in 2020 and pitched in Game 1. Gibson had left in free agency after 2019, and although Littell and Smeltzer each saw time during the regular season, neither contributed to the Twins' postseason efforts. The count is 18. Returning pieces from 2019: Luis Arraez, José Berríos, Jake Cave, Nelson Cruz, Tyler Duffey, Mitch Garver, Marwin Gonzalez, Max Kepler, Trevor May, Jorge Polanco, Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Cody Stashak New pieces in 2020: Willians Astudillo, Alex Avila, Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirlloff, Kenta Maeda, Caleb Thielbar Italics indicate the player is no longer in the Minnesota Twins organization (2023) Summary and Looking Ahead Props to you for getting this far. It's at nearly 5,000 words. And many painful memories have been drudged through, but I find it fascinating, and I hope you did too. With Joe Pohlad taking the reins of the team as the club's principal owner, there have been three owners since the streak started. The GM position has changed four times. There have been three managers. The last contributors in the 2004 series left the team over a decade ago. Almost all of Joe Mauer's potential Hall of Fame career was encompassed in this streak. Only three players from the 2017 Wild Card are slated to play in the 2023 postseason—Buxton, Kepler, and Polanco—and Buxton doesn't look promising. Kepler and Polanco are the only returning members from the 2019 playoffs. Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Thielbar, Kirilloff, and Jeffers are the members returning from the 2020 squad. The Twins have brought in several veteran depth pieces like Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, Michael A. Taylor—you know their names by now; I won't go through a whole roster again. They have a new, bona fide, archetypal captain placed at the center of the clubhouse in Carlos Correa. They also have more parts of the fifth core making statements. Former number one overall pick Royce Lewis, eagle-eyed French Canadian Superhunk Edouard Julien, and all-around power Minnesotan Matt Wallner have each been considerable additions to this team, and it's starting to be built around them, as the remnants of the fourth core—Buxton, Polanco, and Kepler—begin to age out. This is the fifth core that's had a chance to end the streak. It's frankly absurd. Only two players have been part of four trips to the postseason—Cuddyer and Mauer—and they're long gone. Kepler and Polanco will add their names to that list in 2023. Before this year's postseason, 98 different Twins have played in a postseason game since the last time they registered a win. None of them have been able to break the streak. But let's go back to where we started. Do the Twins really have an 18-game losing streak dating back to 2004? Are these Twins those Twins? They've rebranded twice. They moved out of their old stadium. They're located in a new city. They even replaced their new scoreboard with a new scoreboard. I've heard a lot about the new scoreboard. Regardless of your definition, the organization fully turned over at least once during that time. Is it even accurate to claim that these are the same teams? I know that this type of question has been asked every year for the past decade, along with stats about how old some of the Twins were the last time they won a playoff game, but it's worth pondering what ties one iteration of a team to another. If the only thing that remains of the original team is the name, then why do we care? I wish I had an answer. The Twins have lost 18 straight. I'm not trying to argue against that. That absurdity could have broken my brain to the extent that I'm citing Plutarch on a silly little fan site about grown men donning stirrups and playing games of rounders at the old ballyard. But I hope that you were able to enjoy the trip down memory lane. I know I enjoyed writing this. Let's load up the Friend Ship and set sail.

Box Score Joe Ryan: 5 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 6 K Home Runs: Michael A. Taylor (21), Trevor Larnach (7), Ryan Jeffers (14) Top 3 WPA: Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) (Fangraphs is not working for some reason; we will have WPA info up as soon as it works again) For the first time since 2014, the Twins headed to Colorado to face off against the Rockies. The only player from Minnesota’s lineup that day still in MLB is Eduardo Escobar. Center fielder Sam Fuld is now the GM of the Phillies. Justin Morneau played 1st base for Colorado. Minnesota’s 3rd baseman—Trevor Plouffe—was at today’s game to support the broadcast. It had been a while. Given that the Twins were set to play in Coors, there was likely a skirmish amongst pitchers, with many hurlers protesting and petitioning Rocco Baldelli to avoid facing the thin air and hostile conditions. Evidently, Joe Ryan provided the least persuasive argument; he started the game on Friday. And he probably wishes he didn’t. His offerings of high fastballs and flyballs is the precise combination that inflates ERAs and bruises egos. He elicited 14 swings-and-misses, but Colorado clobbered three homers off him, leaving him holding six earned runs over five innings, otherwise known as a “Colorado quality start” (this is not true.) He finishes the season with 197 strikeouts, just one groin injury away from cracking the elusive 200 mark. Minnesota’s offense found Coors inviting—duh—at the start. Kyle Farmer flopped an RBI single to right and later grounded into a double play to invite another run home, but the big score came when Michael A. Taylor cracked a two-run shot to left. It was the longest homer a Twin had hit all year. It happened nine batters into their Coors adventure. Lest anyone would take that record sitting down, both Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers offered legitimate claims to overtaking Taylor’s 468 feet of mashing. Their efforts tied the game. The Rockies—knowing that the Twins are undefeated when Jeffers homers—shook in their cleats, retreating to the safety of their bunkers, hiding in fear of the terror caused by the 26-year-old North Carolinian and the good fortune hidden in his bat. Well, that didn’t happen, but they had good reason to believe in Jeffers’ luck. With a runner on 1st in the 9th, Farmer grounded a single up the middle that struck former Twin Tyler Kinley’s leg, shooting the ball to a non-existent second baseman when an unimpeded ball certainly would have turned two. It didn’t. Instead, Max Kepler drove a fly ball deep to center to score Andrew Stevenson, successfully concluding Minnesota’s rally. Also, this didn’t have a place in my narrative, but Willi Castro made a hell of a play in the 7th—and I thought it deserved a mention. Emilio Pagán was the pitcher Rocco Baldelli's magic 8-ball spit out, so he received the call in the 9th. It worked. He allowed a single, but only threw nine pitches to earn his first save of the season. Notes: Michael A. Taylor extended his career-high in homers with bomb number 21; his previous record was 19 in 2017. Kody Funderburk won the second game of his MLB career on Friday. If he struck out three more batters, Joe Ryan would have made the 2023 Twins the first Minnesota squad since 1967 to have multiple 200 K pitchers. That team had three of them: Dean Chance, Jim Kaat, and Dave Boswell. Emilio Pagán is the 7th Twins pitcher to earn a save in 2023. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins and Rockies will play the second game of their series on Saturday. It will be a legendary matchup, with the young but talented TBD facing off against the grizzled but tenacious TBD, looking for the 157th win of his career. First pitch is at 7:10. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

During the 2019 season, Rocco Baldelli was a rookie manager, and the Bomba Squad Twins set the MLB home run record. As a manager, there were few in-game moves he needed to make with the line-up because everyone was hitting so well. He could sit on his hands and have a front-row seat to a team hitting many home runs. Baldelli has been forced to be a more active manager in recent years because there was no way for the Twins to duplicate their offensive production from that record-breaking season. Entering the 2023 season, the Twins added multiple veterans to serve off the bench, but many have taken on even more critical roles. Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer, Michael A. Taylor, and Donovan Solano have over 330 plate appearances each, with Castro and Taylor ranking among the team's top 10 in rWAR. Bench options have changed throughout the season, and Baldelli has been fearless in pulling some strings even when the offense struggled in the first half. Minnesota ranked 11th out of 15 AL teams in the first half in runs scored, with three of the teams behind them being from the AL Central. Twins' pinch hitters also struggled in the first half with a .173 BA and a .512 OPS. Offensively, the team has seen a resurgence in the second half, with Houston being the lone AL team scoring more runs. The team's OPS from pinch hitters has risen nearly 500 points in the second half, and the team leads MLB in batting average, OBP, SLG, runs, and RBIs from bench players. There is also some question about who will be on Baldelli's bench for October. Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton are currently on the IL, and there is some question regarding whether or not they will be ready for the postseason. The player's health might force the team to make tough decisions about who is active for the Wild Card Round. Buxton has the potential to be a big bench bat when the team faces tough left-handed relievers, so can he have a Kirk Gibson-style moment for the Twins? Lewis is running out of days for his hamstring to heal, so he might be relegated to DH duties if he can play. After the Twins clinched, Seth outlined which Twins players he felt would make the team's Wild Card roster. The Twins will carry two catchers, leaving Ryan Jeffers or Christian Vazquez as a bench bat on games they aren't in the starting line-up. At first base, the Twins can platoon Alex Kirilloff and Donovan Solano. Baldelli had the opportunity to pinch-hit Kirilloff for Solano early in one of the games versus the Angels and made the move. Kyle Farmer is a backup infield option if Lewis and Correa aren't ready to go. In the outfield, it seems likely for the team to start different players depending on the opposing starting pitcher's handedness. Matt Wallner, Willi Castro, and Max Kepler are the likely starters versus a right-handed pitcher, while Michael A. Taylor will probably sub in against a left-handed pitcher. If Buxton is ready, Minnesota can utilize a platoon at DH with Edouard Julien facing right-handed pitchers and Buxton seeing action against lefties. It remains to be seen if the Twins want Buxton to serve in a part-time role for the postseason, but things should be more evident by the season's final series when more is known about the team's injured players. Baldelli will use pinch hitters no matter the inning to put his team into favorable offensive match-ups. The Twins have a deep bench, which can be critical to success in October. Do you believe Baldelli will continue to be aggressive with pinch-hitting in the playoffs? How will Minnesota's current injury concerns impact the team's bench options? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Kenta Maeda 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K (83 Pitches, 51 Strikes, 61%) Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers (11), Willi Castro (8) Top 3 WPA: Maeda (.305), Matt Wallner (.185), Jeffers (.097) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Tuesday night's matchup between the Twins and the Reds saw two clubs at very different ends of the playoff push spectrum. The Twins came into the game with a magic number at 5, and the opportunity to rest some players and to experiment with their approach, with a fill-in manager Jayce Tingler to boot (thanks to Rocco Baldelli's twins arriving this week!). The Reds came into the game tied with the Cubs for the last wild card spot in the NL, with little to no room for error. The Twins sent a veteran starting pitcher to the mound in Kenta Maeda. The Reds sent an opener to the mound in Fernando Cruz, with plans for a bullpen game. In order to figure out which of those narratives lent itself towards victory, they played a baseball game. It turns out the Twins' approach was the way to go. No one could foresee, however, the cost that would come with this victory. Kenta Maeda Made His Case Known Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray will be the Game 1 & 2 starters for the Twins in the playoffs. Game 3 is up for grabs, and on Tuesday night Maeda made an excellent case for the role. On the heels of a dominating seven-inning, two run performance against the White Sox, Maeda kept the Reds young hitters off of the basepaths in the opening innings, and escaped cluttered bases in the top of the fourth. Twins Open the Scoring The Twins faced an opening pitcher, and ended up seeing five different pitchers in the first five innings. They had planned on seeing Ben Lively as a longer relief option earlier in the game, but insetad the Reds went to Buck Farmer as the second man out of the pen to get the Reds out of a dicey situation in the top of the second inning. Max Kepler reached on a walk and stole second thanks to an Elly De La Cruz botched catch and tag. Farmer promptly accelerated the anxiety of the situation by walking Ryan Jeffers. Matt Wallner looked overmatched by Farmer's fastball, but luckily he ended up getting a slider which he deposited past the infield to plate Kepler to make it 1-0 Twins. Jeffers got into the scoring mix again in the top of the fourth, when he lined a solo shot into the left field bleachers off of the next reliever up, Daniel Duarte. 111.5 mph of pure Twins magic number reduction power. The Middler Finally Arrives, and the Twins Were Ready for It By the time Lively finally arrived in the game the Twins bats were warmed up and took what he gave him. Four straight singles in the top of the sixth led to two more runs. The top of the seventh inning brought more runs as well, this time provided by the daddy power of one Willi Castro. Let's Talk About Twins Pitching Some More Maeda ended up completing five innings of one-hit baseball. Full counts early in the game ended well, but Maeda's pitch count rose to 83 by the end of the fifth and the keys to the mound were handed to Kody Funderburk, Emilio Pagan, Caleb Thielbar, and Dylan Floro kept the shutout intact. Castro and his home run robbing skills also kept the shutout intact, which cannot go overlooked in the analysis of "how well the pitchers did tonight." The Only Thing That Could Ruin Tonight Is... Royce. Lewis. Injured. Lewis attempted to stay in the game after tweaking something while running out a double-play grounder in the sixth inning. He was forced to leave the game mid-at-bat in the top of the eighth. The words "oblique" and "despair" circulated on social media. The Twins added on to their lead in this game, but their lead on the division and hope for the playoffs will rest with the post-game news on just what level of injury is facing the heart of this team. Initial reports focus on a tight hamstring, but until more details emerge its our heartstrings that will be clenched. What's Next: Twins RHP Bailey Ober (7-6, 3.67 ERA) against Reds RHP Hunter Greene (4-6, 4.45 ERA) in the series finale Wednesday, with the Twins looking to continue their push for the second seed in the AL. First pitch is scheduled at the Great American Ball Park for 11:35am CDT. Yes, you read that right, its time for some morning baseball in Twins Territory. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage: FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT Keuchel 0 0 0 58 0 58 Funderburk 16 0 0 0 20 36 Pagán 0 0 22 0 8 30 Jax 16 0 13 0 0 29 Varland 29 0 0 0 0 29 Winder 0 25 0 0 0 25 Thielbar 0 0 0 0 16 16 Floro 0 0 0 0 16 16 Durán 0 9 0 0 0 9

Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Kenta Maeda: 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (83 Pitches, 55 Strikes, 66%) Home Runs: Willi Castro (6) Top 3 WPA: Donovan Solano (.196), Max Kepler (.163), Kyle Farmer (.143), Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): After an impressive comeback win Friday night against the bumbling Mets and their league-leading payroll, the Twins faced a deficit almost immediately on Saturday. Brandon Nimmo led the game off with an opposite field home run off a splitter from Kenta Maeda, and after a single and steal from the scrappy Jeff McNeil, Daniel "Burgers" Vogelbach drove him home with a sharp single up the middle. The Twins mounted an immediate threat to counter, or so it seemed. After Solano was hit by a pitch leading off, Jorge Polanco singled to set the stage for Royce Lewis. Unfortunately for the Twins, sixth starter extraordinaire David Peterson was able to strike out Lewis, Carlos Correa and Jordan Luplow consecutively to extinguish the rally. Peterson has a jumpy fastball and used it along with a sharp slider to strike out five Twins batters the first time through the order. But the Twins were not to be deterred, starting with a hard hit single from Ryan Jeffers off a fastball with one out in the second inning. Castro followed with a blistering two-out double into the left field corner and Solano drove both home with a single to left. The inning could have really gotten out of hand if Pete Alonso didn't time his jump perfectly on a Jorge Polanco liner headed for the right field corner to record the final out. Continuing a recent trend, Maeda again struggled to spot his breaking pitches, and was fortunate on several occasions to avoid damage. His third inning, for instance, included a hit-by-pitch to Alonso while ahead in the count, a 101 MPH single from Francisco Lindor, and three warning track fly balls, resulting in zero runs. Another two-out rally followed in the Twins' half of the third. Luplow doubled down the right field line past a diving Alonso, and Farmer delivered a Guardians Special™ bloop single (70 MPH) to score the go-ahead run. Maeda continued to battle and the Mets increasingly fell into his crafty-veteran trap, trying to jump on seemingly hittable pitches early in at-bats but unable to truly get the barrel to the ball. That resulted in not only outs, but quick outs, and after five innings, Maeda had thrown only 74 pitches. After retiring Lindor to start the sixth, Maeda walked Vogelbach, which prompted Rocco Baldelli to bring in the rookie Kody Funderburk. The lefty struggled with his control but was able to retire the side with the lead intact. Meanwhile, Peterson was settling in, hitting the corners with his fastball and secondary pitches and not allowing much hard contact. Pitching for a spot in next year's rotation, the former first round pick showed why Mets fans had high hopes for him after his 125 ERA+ during his rookie campaign in 2020. A play that certainly helped Peterson's line came in his sixth and final inning. After Luplow reached on a swinging bunt single, Farmer singled to the gap, allowing Luplow to reach third with one out. Jeffers then attempted a safety squeeze bunt, a play he had executed well several times this year already. This time the ugly side of that strategy reared its head: Jeffers missed the bunt and Luplow had strayed too far off third in anticipation, allowing catcher Omar Narvaez to gun him down before he could scamper back. As they did last night, the Twins went to work as soon as the Mets bullpen got involved in the proceedings. After Castro was caught stealing following a leadoff single, Alex Kirilloff drew a pinch hit walk, Lewis singled and Correa walked. Kepler then pinch hit for Luplow, worked the count to 2-2 and fouled off a few tough pitches before demolishing a Drew Smith slider for a bases clearing triple. Farmer finished off the inning with a another bloop double to score Kepler. After a pair of solo homers against Louie Varland, Willi Castro hit the first Twins home run of the game to extend the lead back to four and allow Jhoan Duran the day off, with Dylan Floro pitching a scoreless ninth to secure the victory. Overall, seven of the Twins' runs came with two outs. The Good: Solano continues to terrorize opposing pitchers with his big two-run single; Maeda got better as the game wore on, finishing his offspeed pitches better and keeping them off the barrel of Mets hitters. He only struck out two, but this start was encouraging given the middling results he has shown lately. Kepler had been scuffling a bit (.192 batting average in September), so his big three-run triple was a welcome sight. The Bad: Matt Wallner struck out twice on the first six pitches he faced from Peterson and later grounded out weakly. The Twins have rotated which lefty hitter gets a shot against lefty starters between Wallner, Edouard Julien, Kirilloff and Kepler, and so far only Kepler has shown the ability to hold his own. Louie Varland, making his second career relief appearance after three scoreless against Cleveland, left 1-2 a changeup up to Pete Alonso, who crushed it 427 feet for his 43rd home run leading off the eighth. Varland then gave up a long home run to hot-hitting D.J Stewart on a 99 MPH fastball. Home runs were an issue for Varland as a starter (14 allowed in ten starts) so this was not a positive sign. Castro and Farmer were both caught trying to steal second in addition to Luplow's shenanigans off third base in the sixth. What’s Next: Pablo López (10-7, 3.64 ERA) takes on Tylor Megill (8-7, 5.28 ERA), younger brother of former Twins luminary Trevor Megill, as the Twins look to sweep the series against the Mets. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Varland 0 43 0 0 20 63 Thielbar 10 0 0 15 10 35 Funderburk 0 11 0 0 15 26 Jax 17 0 0 8 0 25 Pagán 12 0 0 11 0 23 Durán 0 0 0 14 0 14 Floro 0 0 0 0 11 11 Headrick 0 0 0 0 0 0 Winder 0 0 0 0 0 0

With 140 games in the books, the Minnesota Twins are 73-67. There have been many ups and downs over the course of the season, but as we coast toward the finish line they are on pace to essentially meet their preseason win expectations – they were projected to win 83 games, per BetMGM, and are tracking for 84 this season. That will likely be enough to win the AL Central handily, because all other teams in the division flopped to varying degrees. In this article, we'll use the FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) metric to break down the most 10 valuable contributors on the offense this season. In doing so, we'll find encouraging signs of emerging youth, uplifting tales of redemption, and a few players whose absences from the list speak volumes. Before listing the top 10 Twins position players by fWAR for 2023, let's take a look back at last year's top finishers, to reset our expectations regarding where the team was planning to receive impact. Top 10 Twins Position Players in fWAR, 2022 Carlos Correa (4.3) Byron Buxton (4.0) Luis Arraez (3.1) Gio Urshela (2.3) Max Kepler (2.0) Jorge Polanco (1.8) Nick Gordon (1.5) Gary Sanchez (1.3) Jose Miranda (1.1) Trevor Larnach (1.1) In looking at that list, it becomes dauntingly clear just how much offensive value the Twins ultimately would need to backfill this year – from departing players (Arraez, Urshela), massive drop-offs (Correa, Buxton), and complete disappearances (Gordon, Miranda). Here's how they made it happen. Top 10 Twins Position Players in fWAR, 2023 (through 140G) 1. Ryan Jeffers (2.0) Jeffers just missed the top 10 last year, finishing 11th on the team with 0.9 WAR. The fact he was even close to making the cut, in a season where he played 67 games and batted .208, shows how much credit catchers receive for merely being capable. (So does the fact that Sanchez ranked eighth.) The Wins Above Replacement metric reflects a basic truth in baseball: good two-way catchers are incredibly hard to come by, and tremendously valuable when you find one. That's why the breakout from Jeffers this year is so hugely invigorating. His standout bat (.269/.368/.462, 10 HR) combined with steady defense behind the plate enables Jeffers to lead all Twins position players in WAR, despite ranking TWELFTH in plate appearances. 2. Edouard Julien (2.0) Julien was viewed as one of the best and most polished bats in the system, a key reason the front office was okay with trading Arraez. Sure enough, the impact Julien has made since being called up for good in May has done much to offset the loss of Minnesota's cherished batting champ. Julien's OPS+ this year (127) is almost identical to Arraez's from last year (128), and he has fulfilled a very similar functional role as a second baseman, designated hitter, and now first baseman. 3. Max Kepler (1.9) During the offseason, many people wanted Kepler gone. As the first half of this season unfolded, even more people wanted Kepler gone. The Twins front office held strong through all of it, and their faith has been paid off handsomely. On June 15th, Kepler's OPS fell to a season-low .625 as he went 0-for-2 with a pair of strikeouts. His WAR had sunken into the negative. At that moment, a switch seemed to flip in Kepler. He got the next day off, then came back and homered three times in his next four games. He's been on a tear ever since, slashing .287/.355/.543 with 14 homers, 15 doubles, and the usual stellar defense in right field. As a result, Kepler easily leads all Twins players with 2.0 fWAR during this span. His $10 million team option for next year is suddenly very appealing. The front office insisted that the trade market didn't meet their standard last offseason, and now will surely find a much more favorable one if they choose to shop Kepler this winter. Meanwhile, he's quickly solidified himself as their best left-handed power bat for the postseason. 4. Michael A. Taylor (1.8) The Twins traded for Taylor in late January, seemingly viewing him as a nice luxury: quality fourth outfielder and Buxton insurance policy. As it turns out, they've needed to cash in that insurance policy in a huge way, and Taylor has answered the call. His defense in center field has been phenomenal, often channeling shades of Buxton. At the plate, Taylor has created a lot of outs as usual (.281 OBP) but he's bringing tons of power with a career-high 20 home runs. In past years we've seen an injured Buxton give way to guys like Gilberto Celestino and Jake Cave, so the impact of having Taylor play to the level of a solid regular can hardly be overstated. 5. Royce Lewis (1.7) Recovering from a second consecutive ACL tear, Lewis spent the first two months of the season rehabbing and building up. He joined the Twins at the end of May, played brilliantly for a month, then went down with an oblique injury that cost him six weeks. Despite all of these setbacks, which cost him more than half of this season (after missing nearly all of the previous two), Lewis has consistently played at an All-Star and borderline MVP level when on the major-league field. In just 46 games he's produced 1.7 WAR, which equates to a 5.5-WAR full-season pace. At long last, the former No. 1 overall draft pick is fulfilling his destiny, with the looks of a long-term franchise centerpiece. 6. Willi Castro (1.5) Discarded by the Tigers after posting a 0.7 WAR in 112 games last year, Castro was scooped up on a minor-league deal in December. The signing received little fanfare, and few expected him to make the Opening Day roster all the way up until the end of camp. Even then, the speedy utilityman's time appeared limited. A placeholder. Instead, Castro has turned himself into a mainstay for Rocco Baldelli, filling in all over the field and adding value with his ability to run and switch-hit. Castro has spent time at seven different positions, including pitcher, and is 30-for-34 on stolen bases, adding an element that is otherwise almost completely amiss on the Twins. Castro's WAR is already a career high and he has likely carved himself out a role as a very handy bench player going forward. 7. Donovan Solano (1.4) Much like Taylor, Solano felt like a late-offseason afterthought, signing for $2 million with spring camp already underway. The Twins felt he was a worthwhile add given the uncertainty around Alex Kirilloff, their lack of proven right-handed bats, and their extreme swing-and-miss profile. Boy were they right on all counts. Solano has been an essential force in the Twins offense, avoiding the strikeout-fueled slumps that have consumed other players and consistently producing all year long. Solano has batted .299 against lefties, and slashed .366/.511/.535 with RISP. His presence at first base, where he leads the team in starts, has kept the position from becoming a black hole in Kirilloff's absence. What a pickup. 8. Jorge Polanco (1.3) Polanco almost always provides value when on the field; he's just so rarely there nowadays. Twins fans have been reminded lately just how much of a difference-maker a moderately healthy Polanco can be, as he's retaken and revitalized the No. 2 spot in the batting order. Over the past calendar month he's slashing .304/.412/.554 with 21 RBIs in 26 games. Keeping Polo healthy for October is utterly paramount. 9. Kyle Farmer (1.2) Acquired via trade from Cincinnati in November, Farmer is one of the few players on this list who's lived up to expectations pretty much exactly. He was worth 1.9 fWAR in 2021 (147 G), 1.5 in 2022 (145 G), and is at 1.2 through 100 games this year, which would equate to a 150-game pace of 1.8. He's been fine. A mediocre hitter and good infield glove who fits reasonably well in a backup role. Even with that being the case, he has still outperformed the next guy on this list, which is really the story. 10. Carlos Correa (1.1) In the first year of his new $200 million contract, the biggest free agent signing in Minnesota Twins history has been their 10th-most valuable position player. Considering the methods and means by which they were acquired, the fact that Correa has been significantly outperformed by the likes of Taylor, Solano and Castro is nothing short of stupefying. Correa's been less valuable than the uninspiring placeholder shortstop option he supplanted (Farmer). The only reason Correa even cracks the top 10 on this list is sheerly due to volume of playing time. WAR is a cumulative stat and Correa has played by far more than any other Twins position player, with his 546 plate appearances edging the second-highest (Kepler) by 130. To some extent, Correa deserves credit for staying on the field and playing through his plantar fasciitis condition. But this statistic, especially framed against the rest of the team and the rest of his career (he's never finished with a sub-3.4 WAR in a full season), really underscores how much of a toll that injury has taken. The Twins have found big value in unexpected places. What really stands out about this list, especially in contrast to last year, is the names that are NOT on it. No Gordon, no Miranda, no Kirilloff. Most critically: no Buxton. Buck currently ranks 15th on the team with 0.7 WAR, despite managing to make the third-most plate appearances of his career (346). The Twins are on track to improve their record from last year by six wins and capture the division despite getting a combined 1.8 WAR from Correa and Buxton, who totaled 8.1 WAR between them in 2023 and are the team's highest-paid, highest-upside players. Losing six wins from those two could've easily reduced the Twins to Cleveland's current level, putting them in an arduous dogfight for the final month. But instead, they've been able to rise above and separate, thanks in large part to young breakthroughs and sneaky good offseason pickups by the front office. If Correa and Buxton can bounce back to anything resembling prime form next year (or better yet, in the playoffs) this franchise is going to be in good shape.

Minnesota has done little to separate from the Cleveland Guardians in 2023, and that is why they hold only a five game lead as the calendar turns to the final month. While August’s 15-12 record was their second-best month of the season, it also highlights how close they have played to a mediocre team. Rocco Baldelli’s club has done well on the mound in 2023, and it’s because of a strong pitching staff that the Twins find themselves in a solid position. For August, a few of the Twins bats continued to heat up following the All-Star Break, and after having no hitters play in the game, that has been a nice development. While the lineup as a whole may not have turned a corner, these are the players that have stirred the drink: Honorable Mention: Ryan Jeffers - .246/.338/.539 (.876), 74 PA, 16 H, 4 2B, 5 HR The Twins have been waiting for Ryan Jeffers to break out for some time, and it's finally happening in 2023. Despite bringing in Christian Vazquez to head up catching duties, Jeffers has forced his way into the strong side of a split. Jeffers has had some very big games in August including a two home run game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and a big blast against the Texas Rangers that included a bat flip they didn’t like. Minnesota has not seen the returns from Vazquez at all offensively, and while the bar was not high for him to clear, seeing Jeffers step up and carry that load has been huge. Baldelli has put Jeffers in the designated hitter spot at times with Byron Buxton out, and his bat has been hot enough to warrant the extended playing time. #3: Michael A. Taylor - .257/.321/.581 (.902), 81 PA, 19 H, 8 HR In the same way Vazquez was brought in for his defense behind the plate, Taylor was acquired for the same reason in centerfield. That has been beneficial with Buxton unavailable defensively, but the bat wasn’t expected to play like this. Launching his 20th home run of the season during August, Taylor has set a new career-high in longballs. Having been mostly a light-hitting batter, Taylor has always been known for his elite defensive abilities. Not only has he brought some speed to the table for Minnesota, but the power surge is something he hasn’t tapped into since being with Washington way back in 2017. Taylor posted eight extra-base hits during August, and each of them left the yard. He had a multi-homer game in a big contest against the Rangers, and he has continued to do it while being available defensively on a daily basis. What Taylor has meant to Minnesota this year goes far beyond what would’ve been realistic expectations during spring training. #2: Royce Lewis - .273/.355/.600 (.955), 62 PA, 15 H, 3 2B, 5 HR The only thing keeping Lewis from topping this list is availability. He played in just 14 games during August after returning from a lengthy stint on the injured list due to an oblique injury. Despite missing time, you certainly wouldn’t know he may be rusty given the production. No matter how sporadic the playing time is for Lewis, he continues to produce at the plate. His 12/6 K/BB since returning to action is a very strong sign for his plate discipline development, and his five home runs continue to show an immense amount of game power. Lewis, as he has done all year when he is in the lineup, continues to find himself in the thick of big moments as well. Against the Rangers and Guardians, Lewis launched the first pair of grand slams in back-to-back games during Twins history. He found himself with another opportunity later in the Guardians series as well, and drove in 14 runs across the action he saw. Making a deep run in the postseason will be largely reliant on the continued production of Minnesota’s historic rookie class, and Lewis is right there leading the charge. #1: Max Kepler - .314/.392/.616 (1.008), 97 PA, 27 H, 8 2B, 6 HR No one has had a season of higher peaks and lower valleys than that of Max Kepler. From initially looking like a candidate to be DFA’d to producing like one of Minnesota’s best players, it has been quite the transformation. Kepler has been on fire since the All-Star Break, and he didn’t slow down during the month of August. The Twins have not been able to get production from Joey Gallo in left field, or Buxton in center, but Kepler has propped out the outfield alongside Taylor. He is driving the baseball from the left side, and elevating pitches with an opportunity to generate extra-base hits. Kepler has always had a sweet stroke, but the ability to provide lift has held him back. Should the Twins pull away from the Guardians down the stretch, it will likely be in part due to the continued success from their regular right fielder. When Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach began to put pressure on him earlier this season, Kepler responded with production that not only has kept him in the lineup, but may keep him around next season as well. How do you feel about the Twins hitters during the month of August? Is there someone else that should have made the list? Do you expect any repeat performances for September?

Box Score Sonny Gray: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K Home Runs: Carlos Correa (16), Edouard Julien (11), Max Kepler (21) Top 3 WPA: Sonny Gray (.245), Matt Wallner (.200), Ryan Jeffers (.068) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Dane Dunning had nothing. He may have had less than nothing. The righty couldn’t find the strike zone if a maitre'd was there to guide him. He walked four in the inning, nearly escaping his mess by coaxing a double play from Carlos Correa, but he couldn’t quite fool Matt Wallner around; the rookie lashed a triple into the right field corner, unloading the bases with one fiery smash. Ryan Jeffers knocked in Wallner with a single. Mitch Garver shaved off a run with a solo shot in the following frame—he will return a crucial player in our plot tonight—but Gray suffered no other damage, holding the lead intact after two. The Twins hopped on Dunning once again. They loaded the bases once again, putting themselves in a prime position to crack the game in half. They didn’t do it. Joey Gallo went down looking after seeing a controversial (read: bad) strike call place him down 0-2. Gallo then offered a few selections from George Carlin’s famous 7 Words, and umpire Carlos Torres promptly sent him home for the night. The strike zone had been nebulous. Torres bailed out Dunning’s shakiness with some optimistic strike calls, pushing quite a few Twins fans to openly lament the unnecessary gifts. Rocco Baldelli soon also retired for the night when his discussion with Torres didn’t stop rising in intensity. The ejection was Baldelli’s 16th in his career. The emotions of the night were far from lowering, though. When Gray faced Garver again in the 3rd, the plate appearance lasted one pitch: a fastball directly off the wallet. Jeffers had been smoked earlier in the game, perhaps as a response to his pimped go-ahead homer on Thursday, and it seemed that Gray’s choice to plunk Texas’ catcher—and a former Twin—was a response to the Jeffers beaning. The benches cleared. Not much came of it. And that was the peak of action for a while. Dunning found some semblance of control, enough to carry him through four sloppy frames with no further runs. Gray, on the other hand, was stellar. He didn’t miss as many bats as usual; instead, the veteran opted for subtle, quiet contact as his fielders worked harder than he did. The Rangers did place runners on against him—Gray wasn’t perfectly sharp—but they all walked back to the dugout with frowning demeanors. Gray threw 81 pitches. Oh, but the Twins weren’t done scoring runs. It seemed like they were. Their bats served up five empty innings, appearing to slip into a lethargic state perfectly ok with their first inning work. The 7th turned, though, as Correa cracked a homer to kick off the scoring, eventually leading to RBI knocks from Jeffers (he may need armor tomorrow), and Donovan Solano. Edouard Julien launched a three-run homer. And so on. The Rangers put in a position player in the 8th. And so on. Cole Sands relieved Gray—that’s how safe Jayce Tingler felt with his nine-run lead—and all the Rangers could muster was an unearned run to soften the loss ever so slightly. Notes: Rocco Baldelli's 16th ejection moved him into a tie for 111th all-time. Max Kepler's 21 home runs is the second-most he's hit in a season, 15 behind his 2019 year. Saturday was the 4th time Sonny Gray pitched seven frames in a game in 2023. Carlos Correa's on-base streak extended to 16 games. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins and Rangers will play the third game of their series on Saturday. Joe Ryan will come off the IL to make his first start since August 2nd. Max Scherzer will take Target Field’s mound for the first time since September 15th, 2014, when the future Hall-of-Famer was a Tiger. First pitch is at 6:15 PM. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

Box Score SP: Pablo Lopez 5 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K (91 pitches, 58 strikes (66%) Home Runs: Royce Lewis (6), Kyle Farmer (8), Ryan Jeffers (10), Matthew A. Taylor (19) Top 3 WPA: Ryan Jeffers (.341), Carlos Correa (.256), Royce Lewis (.219) Bottom 3 WPA: Max Kepler (-.291), Pablo Lopez (-.325), Jordan Luplow (-.70) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Pablo Lopez, who came into tonight's game with 19 straight scoreless innings, had the streak abruptly ended with Marcus Semien's home run off his first offering of the night. The Rangers kept the pressure on throughout the game, but the Twins countered with timely defense. In the second inning, Travis Jankowski bunted for a base hit and went first to third on a single from Ezequiel Duran to right. With the Rangers threatening, Lopez induced an inning-ending double play, proving that it will be vital for the Twins' defense to make key plays in this series. The heat and humidity Minnesota is experiencing likely aided in the baseball carrying at Target Field, and there was no lack of action. Kyle Farmer matched Semien's solo home run to tie up the game. But the Rangers weren't done. Lopez struggled heavily in the third inning. Corey Seager added another solo shot, and Texas followed with a pair of singles and a walk to load the bases. Jankowski drove in two more, putting the Rangers up 4-1. The Twins battled back with a solo home run from Michael A. Taylor, bringing the score closer to 4-2, but Leody Taveras answered back with his solo home run -- the third home run of the night on Lopez -- and the Rangers a 5-2 lead. In the 5th, Michael A. Taylor added another solo home run to close the gap, 5-3. Lewis continued to help the Twins battle back with another solo home run in the bottom of the sixth, closing the gap to a one-run game and the Twins fourth home run. The Twins called on Josh Winder in the sixth inning. Winder hasn't seen action in eight days, but as a Virginia kid, he has played in this heat his whole life and seemed unphased as he gave the Twins their first 1-2-3 inning of the game. Winder did well and returned to have another scoreless seventh and eighth. It was the first time Winder had gone that long all season, and it provided a much-needed rest for a bullpen that was depleted in the Milwaukee series! In the eighth inning, Matt Wallner and Carlos Correa matched doubles to tie the game with no outs. With the bases loaded, the Rangers brought lefty Will Smith to face Max Kepler and Edouard Julien. The Twins called on Ryan Jeffers as a pinch hitter. Jeffers hit a go-ahead two-run home run to push the Twins ahead 7-5, complete with an epic bat flip! Jeffers is now a .571 hitter in pinch-hit situations. The Twins got a strong finish, and it was fun watching Griffin Jax come out in the ninth inning to close out the game, and he did so in fiery fashion. Griffin struck out Semien before walking Seager, and he was visibly frustrated as the officiating appeared questionable to both sides all night. Lowe grounded into a double play to Donovan Solano, Carlos Correa and ended with Joey Gallo on first base. The crowd erupted as the Twins won their first of the four-game series and handed the Rangers their seventh loss in a row. See you all tomorrow night! What’s Next? The Twins continue their homestand with three more games from Texas in this series before coming head to head with Cleveland. Friday 7:10 pm CDT: RHP Sonny Gray (6-6, 3.15 ERA) vs. RHP Dane Dunning (9-5, 3.19 ERA) Saturday 6:15 pm CDT: RHP XX (7-6, 3.77 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (7-6, 3.77 ERA) Sunday 12:35 pm CDT: RHP Bailey Ober (6-6, 3.41 ERA) vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery (8-10, 3.12 ERA) Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

With Joe Mauer’s number “7” having been immediately retired following his playing days, it was only right that he would eventually be inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame. He is on the ballot for Cooperstown this cycle, and will eventually be enshrined in the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame. Replicating that standard probably doesn’t need to be the goal, but finding a viable catching option has been a pursuit since he was forced from behind the dish. Brain injuries took a toll on Mauer and forced him to first base for the 2014 season. Ron Gardenhire, Paul Molitor, and Rocco Baldelli have employed plenty of catchers since, but which seasons stand out as the best since Mauer put away the shin guards? 5. Kurt Suzuki - 2014 The first man to take the plate in the post-Mauer era, Suzuki earned his first all-star appearance in 2014. Playing in 131 games, his 105 OPS+ was a career high at the time, and he wound up catching the final out from teammate Glen Perkins at Target Field in what was Derek Jeter’s last All-Star Game. Suzuki was a quality veteran who did everything decently well. It was a solid transition for the position and provided some veteran stability to an otherwise poor Twins team. Replacing Mauer’s production at catcher was never going to happen, but getting average across the board was worth circling at an otherwise difficult spot. 4. Jason Castro - 2017 Following the Suzuki tenure, Castro came over as a former all-star for the Houston Astros. He flashed some offensive prowess during the 2013 season, and the hope was that he could replicate that success with the Twins. Castro was a solid defender, and his 93 OPS+ was decent for the role he was playing. Castro helped to bring that Twins team back to the postseason, and it was a good first showing for the time he spent in Minnesota. 3. Mitch Garver - 2021 The only player to make this list twice, Garver rebounded in a big way after an awful Covid season. Playing in just 23 of the 60 games during a shortened 2020, the former Twins prospect showed he still had what once made him a Silver Slugger. Garver played in only 68 games during 2021 as he dealt with injury again, but his .875 OPS and 139 OPS+ from the catcher position were as impressive as anything Twins fans had seen since Mauer. Despite the shortened exposure, he still blasted 13 homers and showed plenty of value. 2. Ryan Jeffers - 2023 What Jeffers is doing this season is unlike anything we have seen for the Twins since Garver went on his 2019 run. Christian Vazquez was signed in the offseason to be a stabilizing veteran presence that would at least warrant a 60/40 split behind the dish. Jeffers has pushed that to 50/50 at best, and should be on the 60/40 side sooner rather than later. Across 71 games he owns a career-best .862 OPS and 136 OPS+. Minnesota was chided for taking him in the second round of the 2018 draft as Jeffers was seen as a potential designated hitter. Instead, the Twins coached up his catching skills and made him a great receiver with adequate blocking skills. The bat has continued to play, and he looks the part of a regular for years to come. 1. Mitch Garver - 2019 A decade after Mauer won an MVP while posting a 1.031 OPS and 171 OPS+, Garver did his best impression. A key part of the Bomba Squad, the New Mexico-native slashed .273/.365/.630 (.995) with 31 big flies. Garver played in just 93 games that season, and was launching baseballs out of ballparks at an alarming rate. He adopted new catching techniques with Tanner Swanson helping to provide insight, and Garver positioned himself as among the best backstops in the game at that point. Injuries are really the only thing that have held him back since, and while we won’t likely see the juiced ball production again, it was the 2019 season that put a ninth-round pick from 2013 on the map. Minnesota has the good fortune of having Jeffers under team control through the 2026 season. Vazquez becomes a free agent the year prior. Maybe it’s Alex Isola, Jair Camargo, Chris Williams, Ricardo Olivar, Carlos Silva, or some other prospect that makes the next impact. No matter what, Minnesota will continue looking for Mauer-like production at catcher for years to come. They likely will never find that sort of player again, but good impressions are noteworthy along the way.

After the All-Star break, the Twins appeared set to roll out a rotation of Joey Gallo, Donovan Solano, and Alex Kirilloff at first base, with Kirilloff being the primary starter. Initially, the Twins' plan worked flawlessly, highlighted by Kirilloff winning AL Player of the Week for July 17-23, hitting .345/.394/.793 (1.187) with three home runs, two doubles, a triple, and four multi-hit games. Unfortunately, Kirilloff was placed on the 10-day IL with a shoulder issue at the end of July and has been out since. Twins Current Situation at First Base With Kirilloff placed on the 10-day IL, the Twins have given substantial playing time to Gallo and Solano. On the surface, Gallo and Solano's numbers since Kirilloff went on the 10-day IL are shockingly incredible. Let's look at their numbers since July 30. Joey Gallo: .240/.406/.600 (1.006), 32 PA, six hits, three home runs, 40.6% Strikeout Percentage (K%), .360 Isolated Power (ISO), 177 wRC+ Donovan Solano: .500/.538/.542 (1.080), 26 PA, 12 hits, zero home runs, 15.4% K%, .042 ISO, 213 wRC+ Initially, these numbers are incredible. But, if you dig below the surface, there is more than meets the eye. If you were to take out Gallo's 4-for-4 performance against the Philadelphia Phillies last weekend, he is hitting .095/.296/.238 (.534) in 27 plate appearances with two hits, zero home runs, a 48.1% K%, .143 ISO, and a wRC+ of just 64. Gallo's incredible 4-for-4 game exemplifies how one substantial game can manipulate how great or lackluster a player's numbers can look over a small sample size, but it also changed how those who follow the Twins perceive Gallo, at least in the short term. If Gallo hadn't gone 4-for-4 with a walk and instead went 1-or-4 with a single and a walk, those who follow the Twins would be just as eager to move on from Gallo as they were less than a week ago. Gallo has bought himself more time, but his one-off outstanding performance should not be seen as the start of an upward trend for Gallo but as a one-off occurrence that likely will not happen again. On the other hand, Solano has been a solid player, and the numbers he has put up since Kirilloff was placed on the IL aren't nearly the mirage that Gallo's are. The only problem is that Solano sustained a right knee sprain while facing the Detroit Tigers last week, which looked much more severe during the initial play. Solano returned on Sunday, going 3-for-5 against the Philadelphia Phillies. Despite hitting well, Solano looked like he was physically struggling during the game showing signs of pain during his at-bats. In the game that Solano returned to the Twins lineup, catcher Christian Vázquez played first base. Vázquez starting at first base will not become a normal occurrence, but it illustrates how the Twins are desperately attempting to find competent players to play at first base for the time being. Another new element in this equation is Jordan Luplow. Despite being labeled as a first baseman, Luplow has only played 113 1/3 major-league innings at first base, with 107 1/3 of those innings coming with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2021. Luplow, in theory, could play first base, but the Twins seem inclined to play him in left field against left-handed starting pitching, as evidenced by the fact that he has played 27 innings in left field and just three innings at first base with the Twins. Gallo, Solano, Vázquez, and Luplow would work as a rotation at first base, but what if another member of the Twins' 26-man roster could play first base? And what if that player was stuck in a positional timeshare with the aforementioned Vázquez yet deserving more at-bats? Why Not Ryan Jeffers? Jeffers has been incredible since Kirilloff was placed on the 10-day IL and deserves increased playing time, and this is where he could slot in perfectly at first base. Here are Jeffers numbers since July 30: .278/.381/.694 (1.075), 42 PA, ten hits, four home runs, 33.3% K%, .417 ISO, 191 wRC+ Jeffers' numbers are impressive and fit the criteria of what an above-average power-hitting first baseman's ideal statistics would look like. Despite fitting the first base archetype, there is one caveat. Jeffers, 26, has played five professional innings at first base, which came in 2021 with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints. Jeffers' lack of playing time at first base is a reason for concern, and despite popular belief, first base isn't an elementary position that anyone can play adequately. There is nuance and complex positioning assignments that can be difficult for players to learn, especially on the fly. That being said, first base is one of the lowest positions on the defensive spectrum and, as shown with Vázquez, the Twins appear willing to push their limits at the position. So, why not put a player who has been contributing at a near-elite offensive level for quite some time? Another element of value that Jeffers possesses is that he is a right-handed hitter. Playing the right-handed hitting Jeffers at first base would give the Twins more flexibility for when they platoon versus left-handed starting pitchers. For example, the Twins could play Jeffers at first base, Vázquez at catcher, Solano at designated hitter, Luplow at left field, and so on. The Twins are in a pinch at first base and have been forced to play Gallo nearly every game, even when facing left-handed pitching. With Solano still hurt and Kirilloff likely not returning until at least late September, the Twins may be forced to take an unconventional approach to the position for the season's final months. Instead of continuing to give significant at-bats to a struggling Gallo and an injured Solano or being forced to play Vázquez at a position where his defensive value is essentially snuffed, the Twins could get the best of both worlds by playing the offensively surging and wide-framed Jeffers. Do you think the Twins should give Ryan Jeffers a look at first base? Comment below.

In the workplace, inexperience often gets viewed as a flaw or a hurdle that those forced to deal with the inexperienced party at hand bear with until milestones get reached, and sustainable progress is made. Once that person reaches a certain threshold of competence, they are then thrust into action and forced to trust their instincts while sharpening the complex skills and concepts they, in the grand scheme of things, very recently learned. Fortunately, in most career paths, mistakes, even on a large scale, are forgiven, and if it takes months or even years for one to feel gratified with how they perform in their career of choice, that is perfectly fine. Unfortunately, the margin for error on a division title-seeking professional sports team is meager. If one makes a mistake, especially on a large scale, they will receive public scrutiny and have that moment dangled over their head for all time. Remember Bill Buckner or, dare I say, Gary Anderson? This level of daunting expectations mixed with unrelenting pressure would make most people fold. Yet, many fanbases expect professional athletes to keep a sense of composure and, if something goes wrong, pick themselves up by their bootstraps and focus on what is ahead. Possessing this specific mind frame is particularly expected of the veteran players on the team. The Twins' best position players entering the 2023 season were expected to be Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, Jose Miranda, Jorge Polanco, and off-season acquisitions Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, and Christian Vázquez. Despite playing different positions and having categorically different roles on the team, all of these players, except Miranda, shared one thing: veteran status. Traditionally, veteran players on a team tend to bring a sense of consistency that counteracts the volatile nature of younger players. Unfortunately, that has not been the case for the 2023 Twins. The opposite has been the case. Here is how much wRC+, which is the most comprehensive rate statistic for hitters as it takes into account the weight of offensive action and then adjusts them to the specific ballpark the action took place in, the eight veterans listed above have accumulated: (Note: League average for wRC+ is 100) Buxton (99) Correa (90) Kepler (109) Polanco (96) Farmer (92) Gallo (100) Taylor (89) Vázquez (66) Of the eight veterans listed, only one has generated an above-league-average wRC+, with Kepler creating 9% more runs than the league average. In a microlens, if someone were to state that at the 70% point of the season, seven out of eight of the players that were expected to be primary contributors were performing at a below-league-average rate, one would reasonably assume that the team is also performing at a below-league-average rate and has little to no chance at making the postseason. Oddly enough, the Twins are 59-54, in first place, and hold a 4.5 game lead over the second-place Cleveland Guardians. How has this happened? Initially, much of the credit needs to get handed to the Twins pitching staff. According to Fangraphs, the Twins have the second-best rotation in Major League Baseball by fWAR, accumulating 11.8 fWAR up to this point, and the eighteenth-best bullpen in baseball by fWAR, getting 2.5 fWAR to this point. Combining the rotation and bullpen, the Twins have the third-best pitching staff in baseball, accumulating 14.2 fWAR, which ranks just behind the Phillies with 16.6 fWAR and the Mariners with 15.2 fWAR. The Twins pitching staff has been incredible all season, particularly their starting rotation of Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Kenta Maeda. With this in mind, what other faction of the 2023 Twins deserves the second-highest amount of credit? The answer lies within the Twins young position players. The Twins young position players, contrary to the struggling veterans on the team, have stepped up to the occasion and helped this team find their footing offensively. The offensive renaissance the 2023 Twins desperately needed has been headlined by Ryan Jeffers, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, and Matt Wallner. To do the same practice as earlier, here is how much wRC+ the five young players listed above have accumulated this season: Jeffers (151) Julien (151) Kirilloff (124) Lewis (131) Wallner (165) Unlike seven of the eight veterans listed earlier, all five young position players perform well above league average, highlighted by Julien creating 51% more runs than the league average in a relatively large sample size. Some of these statistics are bloated, as Wallner and Lewis have generated relatively low sample sizes this season. Even so, there has been little to no reason to suspect that they won't maintain an at least above-league-average rate of production. Small sample size aside, the Twins five young hitters have undoubtedly risen to the occasion and contributed game-to-game, especially when it felt like none of the veterans could. Not only are the Twins young position players performing well, but they are also stepping up in high-leverage moments and showing signs of possessing the perceived to be ever-important yet not real clutch gene. Lewis hit a game-tying single while facing the Astros on May 29 and against the Rays on June 7, Julien hit a game-tying home run versus the Royals on July 3, and Wallner most recently hit a walk-off home run off Paul Sewald of the Diamondbacks on August 7. Another recent distinguished moment was witnessing Jeffers, a catcher, hit two home runs on Joe Mauer's Twins Hall of Fame ceremony. Jeffers has finally caught on and is undoubtedly a top-five, likely top-three, catcher in the American League. Jeffers hitting two home runs that night could be perceived as a symbolic passing of the torch from the last Twins star catcher to the next. As the Twins march towards the end of the season, it has become more evident than ever that the Twins young homegrown position players are not only the team's primary run producers but also the heart and soul of this year's team on the offensive side. These young players deserve a tremendous amount of appreciation for their services, and hopefully, they will get rewarded for their efforts with a division title. What is happening with Jeffers, Julien, Kirilloff, Lewis, and Wallner at the Major League level feels genuinely special. And with other young position players yet to reach the Majors in Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Yunior Severino, and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. waiting in the wings at Triple-A St. Paul, the Twins future position player-wise warrants genuine optimism. Do the Twins young position players deserve significant appreciation? Whose future are you looking forward to the most? Comment below.

Box Score SP: Pablo Lopez 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K (96 pitches, 70 strikes (73% strikes)) Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers (9), Carlos Correa (13) Top 3 WPA: Ryan Jeffers .190, Carlos Correa .150, Pablo Lopez .080 Win Probability Chart Early Innings Fireworks Wentz didn't have control of the strike zone from the first pitch he threw as Donovan Solano snapped the ball to center field for a lead-off double. Following a Jorge Polanco strikeout, one hit followed another. Carlos Correa's RBI double to put the Twins up 1-0, then a Max Kepler single, and finally a Ryan Jeffers three-run home run to make it an early 4-0 lead for Minnesota. The offense cooled off from there in the first but still had every Twins hitter get to the plate. From there, the Twins continued to do damage. The second time through the lineup in the second inning saw back-to-back singles from Solano and Polanco, then, for the first time since July 17, Carlos Correa hit a home run. The three-run shot made it 7-0, and for once this season, the Twins figured out how to solve a left-handed starter. Any further rally threats died, with Wentz retiring the next three batters, one-two-three in the second. In the third, Willi Castro scored on an RBI ground out from Michael A. Taylor, putting the Twins up 8-0. Lopez Cruises Through Motor City Kitties Pablo Lopez was as sharp as ever on the pitcher's mound Monday night. Starting his night already up 4-0, Lopez got a groundout and a couple of strikeouts but did give up a two-out single to Matt Vierling. Lopez faced the minimum in the fourth inning. Otherwise, the Tigers' hitters found ways to reach base in every inning he threw. Fortunately, Lopez's pitch mix still worked to his advantage, getting 17 swings and misses in the game and adding eight strikeouts to his 165 on the season coming into Monday. Lopez's curveball resulted in the most swings and misses, with his breaking balls on Monday having five, while his four-seam fastball got him an additional six. Even with five hits surrendered and one batter reaching on an error, Lopez allowed no walks making this his fourth start of the season with zero walks allowed. It's also the first time since September 20 and 27 of 2022 that he had back-to-back starts with no walks surrendered. Late Inning Runs for Both Teams The Twins had insurance runs added on in the late innings unexpectedly. Alex Lange walked three hitters in the top of the eighth and gave up a run without giving up a single hit as he threw a pitch to Kepler that hit him in the foot and gave the Twins a 9-0 lead. With such a massive lead, the Twins removed Kepler from the game and put Matt Wallner in as a pinch runner. Ryan Jeffers, however, struck out looking to end the inning. The insurance run helped the Twins a bit. Reliever Brent Headrick was given a second inning of work in the ninth, and he hit Kerry Carpenter in the hand (which looked like it could have been a lot worse). Zack Short followed with a single and Nick Maton launched a 3-run shot to kill the shutout and make it 9-3. Headrick got the final out after throwing 41 pitches. Other Notes Taylor's walk in the top of the eighth made him the last Twins batter to get on base in Monday night's game. The last game the Twins had every hitter getting on base at least once was on Saturday, July 29, a 7-10 loss against Kansas City on the road. What's Next? The Twins play the second of a four-game series against the Tigers beginning at 5:40 p.m. CT tomorrow. Sonny Gray will make the start for the Twins against Eduardo Rodriguez for the Tigers. Postgame Interview Coming soon. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet