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First and foremost, last season saw a trend of starters going fewer innings take shape across all of baseball. Through the first two months, starting pitchers averaged just over 4 2/3 innings per start. It made a good amount of sense, with relievers being more specialized than ever and starters lacking when a lineup rolls over. For Twins fans, the consternation has always been directly with manager Rocco Baldelli. No matter how loud it needed to be yelled last year, though, suggesting, short starts weren’t a Twins thing (or a Baldelli thing) didn’t matter. With an overhauled rotation, could longer starts become a Twins thing? Gone are the days of Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy being ok with a five and dive routine. Neither was effective enough to be penciled in for more last season, and the Twins knew that. Sonny Gray wasn't ever thrilled about an early hook, but injuries have been a concern for him, and he was lumped in with a bad group last year. At times, Joe Ryan's two pitch mix wasn't enough for him to be efficient, and as a whole, the rotation forced the manager's hand. Trying to protect guys like Bailey Ober and Tyler Mahle from further injury, there was just never opportunity for Baldelli to lengthen the leash. Opening Day starter Pablo Lopez threw 180 innings last year for the Miami Marlins. That easily would have been the most for Minnesota, and he did that to the tune of a 3.75 ERA. Across all his 32 starts, Lopez went less than five innings just seven times. Sonny Gray has publicly voiced a desire to go deeper in games, and settling in during year two with this staff could help to accommodate that. Tyler Mahle made 19 starts for Cincinnati before being traded last year, and he went under five innings in only five of them, three of which came during the first month. If there are starters to be concerned about length with in the Twins initial stable, it has to be both Joe Ryan and Kenta Maeda. A year ago, Ryan put together a solid rookie campaign, which was highly rooted in dominance against cellar-dwellers. He struggled when facing a lineup more than twice, and he was beat around a bit by lineups of high-caliber opponents. Being able to show a higher level of consistency could lengthen his leash. Regarding Maeda, plenty will depend on how effectively he can return from Tommy John surgery. He is well beyond the normal recovery period and has been stretched out plenty this spring. The numbers and performance haven’t been great, but there is a lot to like if he can settle back into where he was during the 2020 season. Maeda never went under five innings during any of the 11 starts that year, and he completed five innings during two-thirds of his 2021 outings. Ultimately the length of a start is determined by game flow, but for the Twins, it has largely been reactionary due to the quality of performance. Baldelli would certainly appreciate not having to rely on Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, or Griffin Jax every single night. He can avoid doing that if his starting rotation performs at a high level and presents an opportunity to continue longer in a game. I don’t think we’ll suddenly see the Twins returning a Bert Blyleven-like workload this year for the rotation. Still, guys working into the sixth and seventh inning have a much more realistic possibility of happening. This is unquestionably Minnesota’s best rotation in years, and on no night should it be assumed a guy will go out and just get blown up. Baldelli may have preferred to yank starters early out of principle, but the much more likely reality is that performance-dictated decisions. We’ll now have a case study opportunity to find out how much truth there is to good starters going longer.

Many baseball writers will make predictions in the coming weeks as Opening Day continues to creep closer. There is a fine line between what one person views as bold and what another person views as reasonable. Every year, weird things happen that go against logic and previous trends. Here are four predictions about the 2023 season, and I will let you decide on their level of boldness. Jhoan Duran Named to AL All-Star Team Duran was among baseball’s best relief pitchers last season while leading American League relievers in Win Probability Added (WPA). There is always a chance that Duran suffers some kind of sophomore slump, and previous injuries are one of the reasons he moved to a bullpen role. If healthy, it’s hard not to imagine Duran being a weapon for Dusty Baker to utilize in any inning of the Midsummer Classic. Duran has shown the ability to add even more velocity when amped up for an appearance, so one inning in the All-Star Game could be a scary proposition for NL batters. Duran would join a growing list of Twins All-Star relievers, including Taylor Rogers, Glen Perkins, Joe Nathan, Eddie Guardado, Rick Aguilera, and Jeff Reardon. Joey Gallo Hits 30 Home Runs Gallo has hit over 30 home runs in three previous seasons, including 38 home runs as recently as 2021. However, Gallo is coming off his worst big-league season, where he hit .160/.280/.357 (.638) with eight doubles, two triples, and 19 home runs in 126 games. Twins hitting coach David Popkins has been able to adjust the swings of players like Carlos Correa and Nick Gordon. There will always be plenty of swings and misses to Gallo’s offensive profile, but he can hit at an All-Star level. He may never be a 40+ home run hitter like he was in his early 20s, but Gallo is poised for a resurgent season in the middle of the Twins lineup. Joe Ryan Finishes Top-5 for the AL Cy Young Cy Young contenders pack the American League, including Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Shohei Ohtani, and Shane McClanahan. Joe Ryan could join their ranks this season if his improved breaking stuff baffles batters. In his rookie season, Ryan posted a 3.55 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and a 151-to-47 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 147 innings. He has used his fastball over 60% of the time in his big-league career, but he worked on his other pitches this winter, which has him ready to break out. Ryan will have one of the best seasons by a Twins starting pitcher in quite some time, so make sure to enjoy the ride. Byron Buxton Plays in 115 Games Some fans will shout that 115 games are too much for Buxton, while others will be disappointed if that is all he can’t reach the century mark. Buxton’s injury history has been well documented, and it’s one of the reasons the Twins were able to sign him to a team-friendly extension. His lone season with over 100 games was back in 2017 when he played 140 games and earned the Platinum Glove in center field. Since then, Buxton has been a completely different weapon at the plate, and the Twins will attempt to keep him healthy by using him more regularly as a designated hitter. Buxton must be available throughout the year to win the division, and 115 games seem like a reasonable goal. Do you consider these predictions to be bold? What predictions do you have for the 2023 season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Projected Starters: Sonny Gray, Pablo López, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan Depth: Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Cole Sands, Chris Paddack, Aaron Sanchez Prospects: Marco Raya, Simeon Woods Richardson, Connor Prielipp, David Festa, Jordan Balazovic THE GOOD The Twins have at least five pitchers in their projected rotation who could realistically be viewed as top-of-rotation starters. Not aces, mind you, and maybe not even convincing number ones, but clearly a cut above the "mid-rotation" categorization. When's the last time we could say that? Never? Gray, who figures to get the nod on Opening Day, is an accomplished veteran with a 117 career ERA+, and four straight seasons of good performance. Mahle and Ryan are strikeout machines with overpowering fastballs and strong recent results. Maeda was the Cy Young runner-up in his last full season. (To the extent 2020 was a "full season," anyway.) You take that group, add López – a borderline No. 1/2 himself – and the level of established quality depth here is really something special. Being able to send out an above-average starter for every single game is not something most teams can do, but the Twins are aiming to make a habit of it this year. It would be a far cry from a 2022 campaign where Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer made one-third of their starts. For all of the top five Twins starters to hold up all season is wishful thinking, of course. That's true in any given year, but especially with a quintet carrying the number of injury concerns this one does. The front office recognized this and built sturdy depth with the addition of López, who pushes the very capable Ober into sixth starter status. I've got Varland listed as "Depth" at the top of this article even though he still qualifies as a prospect (No. 9 on our list) because he more or less feels like an established option, and is next in line after Ober. The reigning back-to-back Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year had a strong showing in five MLB starts last year, and has nothing left to prove on the farm. Varland's merely waiting his turn. Other pitching prospects like Woods Richardson, Festa, and Balazovic seem likely to factor in this year as well, with varying levels of promise. I compare the depth chart of this position to last year and it's night-and-day. THE BAD Durability concerns plague this rotation from top to bottom. Mahle might be their highest-upside starter, but he was derailed by a mysterious shoulder injury shortly after being acquired. It's ... hopefully better now? There's no real way to know. Gray has surpassed 140 innings only once in the past five years, and posted the second-lowest full-season total of his career (119.2 IP) last year. Maeda is coming off Tommy John surgery, hasn't pitched since August of 2021, and turns 35 next month. (He has also looked pretty rough this spring.) López was healthy last year, but was bogged down by a shoulder injury in 2021. Ober was limited to 56 innings last year by a groin injury, and has struggled to stay healthy throughout his pro career. The only starter in the Twins mix with no significant known injury risk is Ryan, who was a rookie last year. The rotation is destined to experience some level of attrition. The question is: how much? The Twins have set themselves up to afford a certain degree of it, but if a few serious issues or setbacks emerge, they'll quickly find themselves stretched thin. That's hardly a unique situation, but few teams are riddled with as many questions marks in the starting five. THE BOTTOM LINE While it weakened the team's outlook at first base and designated hitter, the Arraez trade significantly bolstered the rotation depth, and one can make a pretty easy argument that matters more for the Twins in their current state. López adds a crucial veteran layer to hedge against injury while also raising the unit's ceiling via his front-end upside. Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field Position Analysis: Center Field Position Analysis: Right Field Position Analysis: Designated Hitter

From a baseline perspective, the win total is a point of contention each year. While not predictive of standings in the vein that Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA attempts, over/under win totals attempt to place a value on a team's overall ability. This season Bovada has the Minnesota Twins checking in at 83.5 wins while giving them equal odds (+150) to finish either first or second in the AL Central. Ending with the win total, here are some thoughts on Twins over/under lines being offered for the 2023 season: Byron Buxton HR Total - 27.5 Despite his speed, Byron Buxton’s best swing has always looked like it would produce more of a power hitter than someone that needed to steal bases. We have seen that play out in recent seasons, and despite playing just 92 games last year, he blasted 28 home runs. On a per-game basis, Buxton’s power is in line with Mike Trout and some of the best sluggers across all of baseball. Minnesota would probably like to see Buck reign it in a bit more at the plate, leaning into a higher level of discipline. He will still run into his fair share of long balls, which comes down to the number of games he can remain healthy for. Hoping that this is the season for the fluky injuries to stop; Buxton playing anything north of 100 games should allow him to cruise by his home run total. It’s a risk betting on his health, but give me the over here. Carlos Correa Batting Average - .280 Batting average is not the indication of results that it was once viewed as, but there is still plenty of value to be placed on it. Last season the Twins star shortstop hit .291 across 136 games. That included a significant slump during the middle of the season. He is a .279 career hitter and has hit over .280 just twice in his eight-year career. I don’t think I’d touch this line, but I could certainly see an argument for the over. With the lack of a shift, Correa could see a few more hits fall, and he gets the benefit of a normal Spring Training where he can settle into his new home. Overall, I think Correa’s slash line trends more towards on-base and slugging, so while his OPS should rise, the batting average may fall. Give me the under on this one. Pablo Lopez/Joe Ryan Wins - 10.5 Pitcher wins have very little value in and of themselves, but they will forever remain a tracked statistic. Last year, Rocco Baldelli was hamstrung with regard to how deep his starters could go in a game. That shouldn’t be the case, given the depth he has this year, and that should benefit the pitching staff as a whole. Joe Ryan led the club with 13 wins last year and shows up in this space for 2023. Lopez was reason enough to trade Luis Arraez, and he is coming off a 10-win season of his own. In the Minnesota rotation, both players should be expected to have plenty of offensive backing, and a better bullpen should protect their leads. Eleven wins is a substantial number, but a good Minnesota team should have a couple of double-digit winners. I’m not sure these are the exact two, but I think at least one should get there. I’ll take the over on Lopez and let it be. Minnesota Twins Wins - 83.5 Looking at the division, I think it’s fair to suggest that Minnesota is right there at the top. Cleveland didn’t do much to get better this offseason, and while they are the reigning champs, it may have been more to do with taking advantage of a situation. Chicago still strikes me as the roster to look out for, and while Pedro Grifol is better in charge than Tony La Russa, that may not be enough to vault them up. Even if the Twins can’t grab the AL Central title again, and I wouldn’t bet against that, they should surpass 84 wins. This looks like a group that can fly past 90 and even a disastrous finish, as the walking wounded saw them win 78 last season. The pitching depth is there, and while the lineup looks different, this team is constructed to compete. I’m taking the over. What are your favorite bets or over/under tallies for the 2023 Twins?

Spring training has begun, and the season is right around the corner. The start of the season begs the age-old question, who is the Opening Day starting pitcher? The Twins have never spent significant money or pushed all their chips in to acquire a true "ace," which has left the spot of Opening Day starter as a revolving door of pitchers. The Twins have used three different pitchers in the last three years and eight different in the past ten years. This year, however, the Twins are in a different situation. While they still don't have a real #1 that so many desire, they have five starters that all could reasonably start on Opening Day. Who's the most likely to get the nod? The most significant deciding factor is, more than likely, health. This past season, Sonny Gray was presumed to be the Opening-Day starter after his March 13th acquisition, but he was behind pace in spring training, and the honor was given to rookie Joe Ryan. It's possible that a similar situation may take Tyler Mahle out of the running. Mahle was acquired at last year's deadline but threw just 16.1 innings with the Twins before his season ended due to shoulder injuries. As of now, Mahle's spring training is going normally, but it is something to monitor as we head toward Opening Day. His upside is arguably the highest in the rotation, but he's only had one above-average season in his career. His lack of consistent performance and last year's injury makes him the least likely of the four to start on Opening Day. While he isn't a definitive #1, Pablo Lopez substantially raises the rotation's floor. His talent is similar to Sonny Gray's, and he has shown that he can be a workhorse-type pitcher, throwing 180 innings this past season. Lopez is pitching in the WBC for Venezuela, so his performance and health may dictate his chances for Opening Day. He is also brand new to the Twins, and teams tend to pick veteran starters with more experience on the team, so it may limit his chance to start Opening Day. Kenta Maeda is clearly another candidate. He was the Opening Day starter two years ago in 2021, coming off a (shortened) season in which he finished second in the American League Cy Young Award voting. But last year was a lost year for him as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. That doesn’t necessarily disqualify him, but there are more worthy candidates. That leaves the two front-runners: Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray. In 2022, Ryan became the first Twins rookie to start on Opening Day since 1969. Ryan was solid with a 2.2 WAR and a 109 ERA+. He also showed his durability by leading the team in innings pitched with 147. He has no history of substantial injuries and will be ready to go on Opening Day. His lack of a track record of successful pitching is the only thing holding him back. Sonny Gray proved his spot as the #1 last year with 2.4 WAR and a 125 ERA+. While he did land on the IL three times, he finished the season with no injuries. Gray is the veteran of the four at 33 years old and has already pitched an entire season for the Twins. Gray has been in the league for a decade and has shown his ability to perform consistently year after year. He also has a reputation in the clubhouse as a team leader. After looking at team history, previous injuries, and other factors, all signs point to Sonny Gray starting Opening Day. Gray has already pitched in live BP down in Fort Meyers and has no limitations in spring training. His previous time with the Twins and his veteran talent make him the strongest candidate to start on Opening Day.

If you're familiar with the dynamics of spring training, then you know it's uncommon for established veteran regulars to make long road trips, and that was certainly true of this game, which featured José Miranda as the only regular present in the lineup. There were, however, several notable players involved in the game, including 2022 Twins Opening Day starter Joe Ryan, who made his first outing of the spring. His performance ranked among the five most striking observations I came away with in a 10-8 Phillies victory at BayCare Ballpark. 1: My first impressions of the pitch clock The addition of a pitch clock this year represents one of the most significant and impactful rule changes in Major League Baseball for some time, so naturally I was eager to see it in action. There's been a lot of early handwringing from various corners about how distracting and disruptive it is. To me it seemed like ... not a big deal? It'd be tough to call the pitch clock unnoticeable, given the big digital countdown timer that now adorns the backstop, ticking off seconds from a starting point of 0:15, 0:20, or 0:25, depending on the game situation. The speedier pace of the game was definitely noticeable, especially in this case – a 10-8 spring training game is the kind of high-scoring affair that often drags on for nearly four hours, leaving everyone involved in a grumpy mood, but this one wrapped up in just over three (3:06, to be exact). I definitely got the sense that both pitchers and hitters were more intentional about readying up and doing their thing, but no one seemed especially rushed. Ryan, who started for the Twins, has always moved at a pretty good pace and he was flying, typically delivering his pitches with seven or eight seconds left on the clock. 2: Joe Ryan experiments with new pitches Ryan's velocity was good in this outing, sitting in the 92-93 MPH range regularly on the stadium radar and reaching as high as 94.3 MPH, which he seemed very pleased with. Of course, Ryan's fastball is not in question. It was the best pitch on the staff last year. Ryan's lack of overpowering secondary stuff is what limits his upside, and it's clearly something he's focused on addressing in his sophomore season, as he aims to refine a sweeping slider with more horizontal movement and a split changeup. Ryan's outing was not especially smooth – he needed 40 pitches to get four outs before being removed in the second inning – but that's forgivable in his first spring start, and even more so with the experimentation going on. And Ryan seemed pleased on that front as well. 3: Edouard Julien bats leadoff The big uncertainty in the wake of the Luis Arraez trade was ... who's going to replace what he brought to the table? Julien was a name that came to mind for many people (including myself) – he's been a lefty-swinging OBP machine in the minors, with no clear positional fit, harkening to Arraez in multiple ways. Julien was fittingly in the leadoff spot on Sunday in Clearwater. As expected, he took a lot of pitches ... but not with successful results on this occasion. The second baseman struck out in all three of his at-bats, including on called third strikes in both of his first two. For any prospect who draws way more walks than you'd expect based on his hitting ability, the question with Julien was whether his on-base skills owed more to patience or passivity. Games like Sunday's point toward the latter, and that's a perception he'll need to prove his way out of. But, it's only one game. 4: Big bases come in handy The new larger bases are not conspicuous to the naked eye – at least not mine – but there's no doubt they will come into play throughout the upcoming season in very subtle ways. We might've seen an example on Sunday. Miranda reached first base in the first inning, and seemed like he was inclined to steal second. During the next at-bat, he took a huge running lead on one pitch before Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto whipped the ball over to first in an effort to pick him off. Miranda scrambled back to the base, and seemed to be dead in the water. Yet, he was safe, getting his fingertip on the bag just in time to beat the tag. I feel confident in saying it's the first time a Twins baserunner has been saved by the bigger bases. I'm sure it won't be the last. 5: Trevor Megill struggles mightily Outside of Ryan, the only projected member of the Twins pitching staff to appear in this game was Megill, but he's hurting his chances. There aren't many true position battles happening this spring, which detracts from the drama a bit, but Megill is certainly fighting for one of the last bullpen spots. The Twins love his power pitch mix, which was on display as his fastball reached 97 MPH multiple times, but the righty continues to struggle with execution, and his outing on Sunday was flat-out ugly. Megill simply could not seem to find the zone, and when he did, he got crushed. While recording only one out, he gave up three walks and three hits, including two home runs – one of which was a grand slam. He threw only 14 of 33 pitches for strikes and mixed in a wild pitch for good measure. The first spring training appearance should be treated for what it is, but Megill isn't exactly on firm footing – he was a waiver pickup who posted a 4.80 ERA last year, including 7.66 after August 1st. His brutal first outing of the spring leaves him with a 162.00 ERA which will make it almost impossible to finish the exhibition season with decent numbers. And the timing of this clunker was especially bad on a day where the Twins brought in two new right-handed relievers: Dennis Santana (waivers) and Jeff Hoffman (minors deal). On Monday, Pablo López and the Twins face the Red Sox at JetBlue Park. We'll have plenty of coverage, with myself and John Bonnes both in the building. Make sure to check back and find all of the key takeaways from this one.

Needing pitching help, and unlikely to get it from free agents Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer, the Twins swung a trade for Sonny Gray last offseason. Dealing former top prospect Chase Petty was a substantial cost, and while Gray came with a pretty impressive track record, it wasn’t enough to earn him the first start of the season. He was very active in negotiations of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, so he needed a few more days before he was ready to make his first start. When the Twins flipped an aging Nelson Cruz to the Tampa Bay Rays, it was shocking to see them get something of significant value. Joe Ryan was a Top 100 prospect, and he came along with Drew Strotman. Ryan’s stuff doesn’t light up the radar gun, but everywhere he worked for Tampa since being a 7th round pick in the 2018 draft out of Cal State - Stanislaus showed strong results. Not surprisingly, Ryan continued to see encouraging outcomes in the big leagues. It was only a five-start cameo in September of 2021, but his 27 starts last year produced a solid 3.55 ERA. His 3.99 FIP suggested it wasn't just "smoke and mirrors," and even without an upper-90s fastball, he still produced a shiny 9.2 K/9. Little about Ryan’s season was disappointing as a whole, and as a 26-year-old rookie, there is plenty to build off of in 2023. He is unlikely to start on Opening Day, as Gray will have the benefit of a full spring training to be ready, and he could be as low as 5th in the rotation. Additions of Tyler Mahle, Pablo Lopez, and the return of Kenta Maeda all bring considerable depth, and that makes Ryan a valuable back-end starter. If he wants to take his game to another level, doing it against the best competition is the next step. It’s fair to note that the AL Central is one of baseball’s weakest divisions. Although the Guardians and White Sox provide a challenge, there have been no juggernauts for quite some time. Both Kansas City and Detroit happily take their lumps at the bottom of the group, and that allows for plenty of opportunity to shove with scheduled regularity. Talking to reporters down in Fort Myers, Ryan had some thoughts on facing tougher teams. He said, "I’m never really gonna be like … I mean, I expect to do well, so then the bad ones are highlighted more. I don’t really sit on my good stretches much, because that’s what I expect. So that’s kind of like that’s my baseline mentality, I don’t know if it’s a good thing or a bad thing. I think a good start is just how the day was supposed to go. So it feels just like a good day in the offseason. And a bad start feels like you got a couple tickets or something, and someone slashed your tires and stole your car." There isn’t any surprise behind the premise that a pitcher would struggle against better opponents, but the division last season for Ryan was stark. When facing teams above .500 in 2022, Ryan allowed a .760 OPS and 14 of his 20 home runs. In 14 games against those opponents his ERA was an inflated 4.81, and the win-loss record charged to him sat at 3-6. When facing teams under .500, Ryan recorded a 10.5 K/9 with a 2.31 ERA and a 10-2 record. Wins and losses aren’t indicative of much from a pitcher-record standpoint, but it is notable how much more dominant Ryan was against weaker competition in nearly the same amount of opportunities. The final results were reflective of much more effective work, and it was clear he found ways to avoid letting small things spiral. For Ryan and the Twins, making sure to address better competition is a must in 2023. Not only will Minnesota face their divisional opponents less over the course of the season, but they will play every team in baseball for at least one series as well. Knowing the Central houses weaker opponents, Ryan will face better hitters on a more consistent basis. It may not be about getting Ryan to replicate the same level of dominance against lackluster teams, but pushing his ERA toward 4.00 against the good teams would help. He has displayed an impressive knowledge and feel for the game, and working through ways to challenge and beat the best will only unlock more doors for him. Looking for more success, Ryan told reporters this week in Ft. Myers that he has changed things up a bit. Regarding talk of a new pitch, he said, "A little true, I’d say, like the slider we worked on in September that we were throwing at the end of the season, started to work to refine that this offseason. And then added a little split-change in there." Ryan also got in some work with Driveline this offseason. He considered it a good experience. "We worked on that (pitch shape) a lot. A couple of us went up there at the end of the offseason and put the whole package together, and it was just good to see what the possibilities were and just learn kind of... it helps me a lot to know the reason for things sometimes." The Twins haven’t had the starting pitching depth they do right now in years, and being able to see someone like Ryan round out the rotation is exciting. How far he can continue to substantiate performance remains to be seen. Finding a way to be better against better teams is the next step in his development. With how difficult the Twins schedule is immediately in April, we won’t need to wait long in order to find out if he’s up to the task.

Driveline Baseball has become something of a household name in baseball circles in recent years, as it’s extended its reach from youth baseball to the MLB level. Using the newest technology and data available in the baseball world, Driveline has its fair share of success stories among professional pitchers. In 2023, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle are looking to become the newest names added to the list. Mahle and Ryan likely had very different goals in mind this offseason and each opted to take them to the pitching labs of Driveline Baseball. We often hear little about what specifically pitchers are working on during their offseason routine, but given the reputation of Driveline and the details that we’ve received, this news should be exciting to Twins fans. Tyler Mahle The first thought when hearing his name tied to Driveline was a recovery plan for whatever shoulder ailment ended his 2022 season. Instead, Mahle went about his business as usual this offseason, looking to make tweaks to his repertoire. Even when healthy last season, he seemed to be missing just a small piece of the puzzle. Mahle opted to revamp his slider after the 2022 season. He has what’s classified as a slider and a cutter, though it’s fair to wonder whether both are the same pitch that classify differently at times, as the “slider” averaged a bit less velocity than the “cutter”. At any rate, these were his two worst pitches by most measures. Expected Batting Average and Slugging were markedly worse than his fastball and splitter for these two pitches, and it showed up in his platoon splits. Right-handed hitters put up an OPS of .784 against the right-handed Mahle, much worse than the .602 mark against left-handed hitters. It was clear he lacked an equalizer against same-handed hitters. From the little we can see, Mahle has added more horizontal break to his slider and less vertical break. It appears to be a new look breaking ball, which is a welcome change based on how the previous one had difficulties equalizing right-handed hitters. For how well he’s performed against left-handed hitters in his career, if he can find any kind of similar success against righties, he could become a certified stud. Joe Ryan After being able to dominate the minors with mostly a fastball, the Twins tried to incorporate a slider to better equip Joe Ryan to start in the MLB. On the season, Ryan allowed just one less homer on the slider than he did his fastball, though he threw the slider roughly a third as much. Ryan seemed to find something to end the season, as the pitch was dominant in September by many measures including Expected Slugging and Batting Average, hard hit % etc. Ryan took that momentum to Driveline as well this winter. For Ryan, further developing another pitch is a must. His fastball remained fantastic despite being used over 60% of the time, which means any kind of plus secondary offering would raise Ryan’s game to new heights. With the foundation he and the Twins built on the breaking ball, it’s exciting to think about what an offseason at Driveline could do for the pitch. Ryan had more than one pitch in mind this winter. Unlike Mahle, Ryan is significantly better against same-handed hitters. His strikeouts markedly drop off, suggesting a need for a good matchup pitch for left-handed hitters. Because of this, Ryan worked on a split changeup this winter as well. Of note, this is the same pitch that has been Tyler Mahle’s bread and butter secondary, and is a big reason for the lack of platoon splits in his career. Traditionally the pitch is a little faster and has more late life than the plain old changeup. This makes it a bit tougher to pick up by opposite handed hitters who typically have a better look at what’s coming from the pitcher. While it’s tough to say what to expect from Ryan debuting an entirely new pitch, it’s easy to look at the changeup he used just 12% of the time in 2022 and see room for improvement. Tyler Mahle and Joe Ryan have high end upside. Both have good foundations in their repertoire, Ryan with his magical fastball and Mahle with his uncommon ability to negate platoon splits. It sounds like both went in search of the missing pieces this winter at Driveline, and it’ll be interesting to see how the new pitches look. There’s a possibility that both pitchers raise their games to new levels.

Pitching in today's game is more advanced than ever. Fastballs are faster. Breaking pitches break more. All of that leads to pitching being more exciting than ever. The Twins are no stranger to this, as their staff has some of the nastiest stuff in the league, but who truly had the best pitch on the Twins in 2022? To measure, I am using Run Value (RV). Run Value looks at run expectancy in each unique situation and how a specific pitch affects that run expectancy. Run Value is through the eyes of the pitcher, so a negative number represents a good pitch because it lessens the chance of a run and vice versa. It is important to note that run value is an accumulative stat, meaning that the more innings someone pitched, the more RV they can acquire, and now on to the top ten. 10: Griffin Jax's slider: -7 RV 9: Sonny Gray's curveball: -7 RV 8: Jovani Moran's changeup: -7 RV 7: Caleb Thielbar's four-seamer: -8 RV 6: Jhoan Durán's curveball: -8 RV 5: Chris Archer's slider: -9 RV Archer was largely ineffective last year, with lousy walk numbers, and he didn't go far into games, leading to a WAR of precisely zero. The lone bright spot of his season was the slider, which snuck into the top five. Archer's slider rate ticked up this past season, and for a good reason: it was his only effective pitch. Opponents batted .202 against it, and he got a 26.5 whiff% with his slider. 4: Michael Fulmer's slider: -9 RV Acquired at the trade deadline, Fulmer's arsenal is slider heavy, throwing it over 60% of the time. He averages 90.3 MPH, which is top ten in the league. He was effective in his time in Minnesota with an ERA of 3.70 and an ERA+ of 106. His slider was a big part of that, as it held opponents to a .342 SLG and had a 24.7 put away%. 3: Jhoan Durán's four-seamer: -9 RV Arguably the most dominant pitch on this list, it doesn't rank higher in RV due to the lack of innings pitched. Duran had the highest velocity fastball in MLB last year with an average speed of 100.8 MPH, beating out other flamethrowers such as Edwin Diaz and Ryan Helsley. Topping out at 103.8 MPH and averaging more inches of movement than his curveball, Duran made opposing hitters look lost with a 25.9 K% on his fastball. 2: Sonny Gray's four-seamer: -11 RV Gray uses his fastball much less than the other top five on the list, at just 28.3%, but his results were just as effective. Nothing instantly jumps out; his velocity and strikeout numbers are average to below average. His opponent slugging however, was .345, 50 points below the league average. Gray's four-seamer has run similar to a two-seamer, and he was able to dominate the left side of the plate. 1: Joe Ryan's four-seamer: -21 RV Somewhat of a surprise due to his low velocity, but Ryan's fastball was elite. In terms of run value, that pitch ranked ninth in MLB and the fourth-best fastball, only behind Justin Verlander, Nestor Cortes, and Carlos Rodon. Thrown a whopping 60.1% of the time, it held opponents to a mere .174 batting average. Ryan's lower arm slot makes the pitch look like it's rising, making it especially difficult for hitters to pick up on. Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran should be staples on this list for years to come, but spots are up for grabs. Which new pitches could emerge next year? Which pitches surprised you? Can anyone take Ryan's top spot? Leave your thoughts below!

On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus—one of baseball's leading analysis site—released their PECOTA projections for every player in MLB. PECOTA predicts nearly everything; minor stats like holds, quality starts, and losses emanate from its crystal ball along with more crucial numbers like FIP and groundball rate. For this article, we will focus on ERA, FIP and WARP. You all know what ERA is. FIP is similar to ERA—you read it exactly the same—but it only considers walks, strikeouts, and homers. WARP is Baseball Prospectus’ version of WAR. Note: These are the 50% projections, meaning each player has a coin flip’s chance of beating or falling behind their projection. I find these numbers more fascinating than the hitter ones. First, nearly every pitcher in MLB is set to beat their FIP according to PECOTA, something I don’t understand and have not found an answer for. I’d love to soliloquy about Minnesota’s excellent defense, but doing so may be incorrect. Anyways, perhaps the most surprising result is the first: Pablo López is the Twins’ best starter by a few ticks. The machine pegs him as netting the 33rd-most pitching WARP in baseball, hanging out with other quality arms like Dustin May and Chris Bassitt. Joe Ryan isn’t far behind him. PECOTA hammer home another point; the starting rotation is a quality assortment of high-floor starters—all five arms are projected to be in the top 80 of MLB by WARP—that lacks a true ace. There isn’t a black hole, however. Now we move into the bullpen. Jovani Moran earns a healthy projection, one that sees him as one of the best relief arms in the game and essentially tied with Caleb Thielbar as the second-best option for Rocco Baldelli. Emilio Pagán, everyone’s favorite punching bag, receives a hearty premonition from the machine, perhaps a sign that his underlying measurables are indeed favorable. The only notable surprise to me is Jorge López, although it makes sense that PECOTA is leery of his performance given his struggles with the Twins. To end our journey with PECOTA, a few other notable projections: Louie Varland receives a 4.01 FIP—usable, but not outstanding. The machine sees some value in both Patrick Murphy and José De León—two pitchers Minnesota signed to minor league deals—as they net 0.2 WARP projections. Note: Baseball Prospectus tinkers with PECOTA until the start of the season; these numbers were taken on February 15th and may not match future projections. Also, if you question PECOTA's value, Rob Mains wrote about how successful the machine is and where it fails.

Recently, the Twins acquired Pablo Lopez plus two prospects in exchange for Luis Arraez. While the trade could be unpopular and controversial within the fanbase, Lopez adds depth to a starting rotation with multiple question marks. Looking deeper into Lopez's numbers, you might notice something out of place: he has a drastic home/away split - and not in the way you might think. Due to familiarity, weather, fans, and multiple other factors, a pitcher's stat line is often significantly improved at home. Take Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, for example: Sonny Gray Home - 67.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 10.4 SO/9 Away - 52 IP, 3.63 ERA, 6.8 SO/9 Joe Ryan Home - 83 IP, 3.04 ERA, 9.8 SO/9 Away - 64 IP, 4.22 ERA, 8.6 SO/9 Pablo Lopez is almost the exact opposite. Home - 87 IP, 4.55 ERA, 8.1 SO/9 Away - 93 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9 Lopez had more innings pitched, a higher ERA and WHIP, and worse strikeout and homerun numbers while playing at his home stadium. Why is this the case, and what could it mean for his time as a Twin? Baseball Savant uses multiple advanced stats to measure the differences between venues, including Park Factor, wOBACon, and BACON. Lopez’s previous home stadium, the Marlins’ loanDepot Park, ranks about average in all three. loanDepot Park ranks even lower for home runs, in the bottom third in the MLB. There is nothing out of the ordinary to suggest it inherently hurts pitchers. All of the loanDepot park factors are irrelevant now as Target Field will be his home field. Target Field favors pitchers slightly more than Miami, suggesting a slight upgrade in home-field production. But strength of schedule also appears to play a role in his reduced home numbers. Lopez played in the NL East, arguably MLB’s toughest division. At home, he faced off against NL East rivals four times, along with starts against the Padres, Dodgers, and Cardinals. All the teams that Lopez made home starts against have a combined win percentage of .516. For comparison, the Baltimore Orioles have the most challenging schedule heading into 2023 with a .509 win percentage. This should be a problem no more, as the AL Central is arguably the worst division in baseball. The Twins are heading into 2023 with the third-easiest strength of schedule at .495. Instead of multiple games against the Mets and Braves, he gets multiple games against the Royals and Tigers. The Twins will play 26 home division games next year, and assuming health, Lopez will get four or five of those starts. Every team and every individual player has their weaknesses, but the Twins are lucky when it comes to Pablo Lopez because there is a simple explanation for one of his glaring issues. Lopez should already see improvements by simply playing at Target Field and in the AL Central. By the end of the season, Pablo Lopez could implement himself at the top of the rotation and become a fan favorite at his new home stadium.

Joe Ryan seems like a cerebral individual, especially regarding the art and science of pitching. "I love talking pitching," Ryan told Fangraphs.com's David Laurilia in April. "I love messing around with the baseball, manipulating it in the dugout, just getting that feel. Then I get back on the mound with all of that. It's a good time." "Messing around with the baseball" makes it sound like his pitches happen by a cosmic accident, but as you can glean from his back and forth with Laurilia, Ryan's approach is far from accidental. He cites vertical approach angle and horizontal break, reviewing video of his recent outings and those of his high school days when he pitched from a higher arm slot (he tried to emulate Tim Lincecum). While there is some experimentation in pitching, Ryan's practice is very much deliberate. Ryan was a unicorn in that his fastball, while thrown at a very average velocity, piled up swinging strikes at the rate of a much harder thrower. As I detailed after he arrived in 2021, Ryan's low arm slot and riding fastball were thrown at the upper third of the strike zone, turning hitters into pretzels. This article continues exclusively for Twins Daily caretakers. To become a caretaker and read the rest of the piece, you can subscribe here.

While many would argue that the starting rotation that breaks camp in late March is still lacking a true bonafide ace, there’s no arguing that the Twins have a much deeper class of pitchers than in recent years. Take the 2022 season as an example. As the campaign opened, the big-league starting corps consisted of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer. Even with a six-man rotation, the depth was tested early on. When the calendar flipped to May, Gray, and Ober both found themselves on the IL, with Josh Winder getting the call to fill in on the now five-man rotation. Just two weeks later, Paddack succumbed to an elbow injury and was replaced by Devin Smeltzer. Just weeks after that, the Twins trotted out Cole Sands and Chi Chi Gonzalez to fill out an even more depleted staff. As you can see, things can go south rather quickly when nagging injuries rise to the surface. That’s why depth is a critical aspect of building a competitive team. And this year, the group looks much deeper on paper. Beyond their projected major-league rotation consisting of Gray, Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda, they actually have a full staff of quality starter options stashed across the river in St. Paul. Rather than relying on the likes of Smeltzer, Gonzalez, or Sands when someone in the big-league rotation goes down, the Twins are on track to have a much stronger group of replacements. This includes top prospects Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 5 on Twins Daily’s prospect rankings), Louie Varland (No. 7) and hopefully a healthy Jordan Balazovic (No. 15). It would also presumably feature Ober and Winder, two exciting young arms that have shown flashes of belonging in the MLB despite notable injuries over the last two years. They could also look at Ronny Henriquez (No. 16) and Cole Sands in the Saints’ rotation, though both finished the 2022 campaign in the bullpen and may be best suited for that role going forward. After that collection, a group of non-roster invitees could theoretically stick around depending on what opportunities present themselves at the end of spring training. This class includes Jose De Leon, Randy Dobnak, and Dereck Rodriguez. None of these are expected to be big contributors to the big league roster, but then again, neither were Gonzalez, Sands and Aaron Sanchez in 2022. Nevertheless, this year’s crop of starting pitcher options at Triple-A looks better equipped to answer the call when the time comes. But how do they compare to the rest of the AL Central? The Cleveland Guardians have the best MLB rotation in the division thanks to staff aces Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, as well as mid-rotation types such as Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac. But what if one or more go down with an injury? They’d be looking at the likes of Triple-A starters Xzavion Curry (their No. 23 ranked prospect according to Fangraphs), Hunter Gaddis (No. 37), and Konnor Pilkington. Each has already had a taste of MLB action, but none inspire much confidence. Other options include non-roster invitee Touki Toussaint, as well as Logan Allen (No. 4), but he would need to be added to their 40-man roster. On paper, the Chicago White Sox also have a strong MLB rotation to start the year. They’ll rely on stalwarts such as Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Dylan Cease, with Michael Kopech and Mike Clevinger (maybe?) rounding out their staff, albeit with less certainty due to an extensive injury history or off-the-field issues, respectively. Long story short, they have a likely chance of needing some reinforcements early on, and that’s where things get dicey on the south side. Next in line would be Davis Martin, Jonathan Stiever, and recent waiver-claim A.J. Alexy, who was just claimed from the Twins. All three have seen MLB action, but none have the prospect pedigree to suggest a breakout is imminent. Beyond that, the Sox are pretty short-handed thanks to a depleted farm system. The Detroit Tigers have many holes in their boat as they try to stay afloat after another front-office regime change. Starting pitching depth is among their biggest challenges. Their MLB rotation will most likely consist of Eduardo Rodriguez, Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, Matt Manning, and Spencer Turnbull. That staff would look a lot stronger if it included former top prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, but both are unlikely to be ready by opening day after having Tommy John and flexor tendon repair surgeries, respectively, in the second half of last year. Their Triple-A rotation will likely consist of Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske, Zach Logue, and Alex Faedo, who have each seen MLB action in the past year. After that, there really aren’t any top prospects or former big leaguers that project to be studying presences when the injury bug inevitably bites them. The Kansas City Royals may still be a few years away from competing for the division crown, but their starting rotation options are plentiful for the time being. Their opening day staff will likely consist of Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brady Singer, Ryan Yarbrough, and Brad Keller, pushing their younger options to Triple-A. These young arms consist of mostly high draft picks, including four pitchers that were all taken in 2018 and have made their MLB debuts. This class includes Daniel Lynch, Jonathan Heasley, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar. Between them, they have combined for 674 innings at the MLB level, so they should be set when the time comes. As you can see from the rundown of the rest of the division, the Twins probably have the deepest starting pitcher corps even if it lacks the height seen in Cleveland or Chicago. The Royals have a similarly deep group at Triple-A, but their on-paper MLB rotation lacks the upside that can be seen in the Twins’ rotation. Does that mean the Twins are guaranteed to have the best pitching staff in the division? Absolutely not. But they are certainly better equipped to withstand a few injuries than they were last year. What do you think? Let us know in the comments whether you think the Twins’ pitching depth will be an asset or a liability this year.

Yes, we all know that health uncertainty is the banner headline for the 2023 Twins. "If they're healthy" is the rallying cry for even the most optimistic fan. As pivotal as they are, these situations just aren't very fun to analyze or talk about, because they feel so beyond anyone's control. Much of the team's outlook hinges on whether Tyler Mahle can pitch without shoulder weakness, and Alex Kirilloff can swing without pain. These things either will happen or they won't, and if they don't, it's not necessarily anyone's fault. The human body is fickle. Today I'm going to look at five critical points of uncertainty for the Twins that have nothing to do with injuries. (Well, almost nothing.) Instead, it's about these players proving they can deliver in areas where the club really needs them if they're to achieve their goals. 1. Can Joe Ryan excel against good teams? Hidden in Ryan's very good overall numbers last year (13-8, 3.55 ERA in 147 innings over 27 starts) is the fact that his success was largely buoyed by beating up on horrible AL Central opponents. In eight starts against the Royals and Tigers, the two teams he faced more than any other, Ryan went 8-0 with a 0.94 ERA. He won every start, allowing just five earned runs on 26 hits (one homer) in 48 innings. Look: that's an absurd level of dominance against any major-league lineup. Ryan certainly deserves a ton of credit for being absolutely automatic in those match-ups. But the flip side is that against all other opponents, he went 5-8 with a 4.80 ERA. The 26-year-old has already established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter who can take care of business against lesser lineups. But with so many question marks elsewhere in the rotation, the Twins are really leaning on him to be more. Showing he can up his game against better offenses than Detroit and KC will be key, both because he'll face less of each in the rebalanced schedule, and because the Twins will (hopefully) need starters they can count on in the postseason. 2. Can Jorge Polanco fill Luis Arraez's OBP void? There's no question that Arraez's ability to get on base will be deeply missed, and his departure raises questions about how a power-driven lineup will fare without his penchant for creating opportunities. There's reason to hope Polanco can make up for some of what the top of the order just lost. You might look at Polanco's career .334 OBP and say, eh, nothing special. Even his .346 mark last year was quite ordinary. But here's the thing: he posted it while batting a career-low .235, thanks to DOUBLING his walk rate from 2021. Polanco's 14.4% BB rate last year would've ranked fifth-best in baseball if his at-bats qualified. If the newfound patience sticks and Polanco is able to sustain a similar walk rate while his batting average rebounds to somewhere in the range of his .270 career benchmark, you've got the recipe for an Arraez-like OBP, or better. To wit: if Polanco walked at same rate in 2021 – when he batted .269 with a .323 OBP – as he did in 2022, he would've had 92 walks and a .395 on-base percentage. 3. Can Nick Gordon make himself essential? Gordon is coming off a breakthrough season that earned him Most Improved Twin honors and saw him accrue nearly 450 plate appearances. In many cases, a campaign like that for a former first-round draft pick would open the door for a big opportunity, if not a starting role. But the circumstances of the offseason leave him in a spot where he'll be scrapping for playing time from the start, and potentially buried on the depth chart. He's not their top backup center fielder (that's Michael A. Taylor). He's not their best lefty-swinging backup corner OF or DH option (that's Trevor Larnach). He's not their top backup anywhere in the infield, and in fact, I'd be somewhat surprised if the Twins view him as anything more than an emergency option on the dirt. Injuries can of course change the equation here, but as things stand, Gordon will have a hard time finding his way off the bench with any regularity. That is, unless he can force the issue. At times last year the former light-hitting shortstop looked like a game-changing offensive force, like in August when he slashed .321/.360/.531 with three steals and 17 RBIs in 26 games. Gordon was electric. Bring more of that to the table, and Rocco Baldelli will find a way to get Gordon into the lineup as much as he can. 4. Can José Miranda play third base effectively? The viability of Miranda's bat is not in question after a convincing rookie campaign that saw him handle everything MLB pitchers could throw at him, thanks to high-contact swing that generated power to all fields. Now he needs to define his defensive future. If he's able to hold on as a capable third baseman, at least for a few years, as opposed to switching to 1B/DH duty, it'd be a boon for the team's planning and lineup-building. An early slide down the defensive spectrum diminished Arraez's value in the front office's eyes, but Miranda can still avoid that route. Thus far, I would say the signs are less than encouraging. His defense at third base checked out pretty poorly last year, by almost any measure or metric, and scouting reports were hardly glowing in the minors. But plenty of third basemen who looked rough as rookies went on to establish themselves at the hot corner (calling Corey Koskie), and Miranda's still only 24. His offseason efforts to slim down have also notably resulted in a body that, per Carlos Correa, "looks sexy." We'll see if the defense can follow suit. 5. Can Jorge Alcalá get lefties out? Coming off a season where he made only two appearances due to an elbow injury that ultimately required debridement surgery, Alcalá is obviously a health question mark. Can his arm hold up, much less get back to pumping the upper-90s heat that led to big results in 2020/21? The Twins seem to be counting on it, because they have yet to make any significant additions to their bullpen this offseason. Unless that changes, they're banking largely on Alcalá's return to provide depth in the mid-to-late innings, setting the table for Jhoan Durán and Jorge López at the back end. Even assuming he's healthy, Alcalá needs to turn one more corner to be the kind of weapon the Twins need him to be. He needs to overcome his susceptibility against left-handed pitchers, who have pummeled him to the tune of .275/.358/.508 in his MLB career. That .866 OPS is 354 points higher than his mark against righties. Baldelli will have the ability to strategically deploy Alcalá in favorable match-ups to an extent, but if the righty wants to truly be relied upon as a key late-inning weapon, he'll need to show he can handle the lefty sluggers and pinch-hitters that come his way.

Last week, Minnesota completed a trade that will add Pablo Lopez to a starting rotation that includes Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. None of these pitchers is considered an ace, but all five have shown the ability to be playoff-caliber starters at different points in their careers. Also, the Twins didn't develop any of these pitchers, which might become a problem for the front office. Maeda was the first of the group to join the Twins rotation. Minnesota acquired Maeda along with Jair Camargo for Brusdar Graterol and Luke Raley. Graterol was one of the Twins' best pitching prospects at the time of the trade, but it was expected that he would shift to a bullpen role. Now, he has only pitched 106 1/3 innings with a 7.8 K/9. Maeda finished runner-up for the Cy Young during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and will return to the mound in 2023 following Tommy John surgery. He is a free agent following the season and has been limited to 173 innings in a Twins uniform. Ryan was the next pitcher acquired among this group. The Twins traded Nelson Cruz and Calvin Faucher to the Rays for Ryan and Drew Strotman at the 2021 trade deadline. Cruz was integral to Minnesota's success during the 2019 season, but he wasn't on an expiring contract. Tampa is known for its ability to develop pitching, and Ryan was nearly big-league-ready. In two seasons, he has posted a 3.63 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP with 9.4 K/9. Since he debuted at age 25, the Twins have team control over Ryan into his early-30s. The Twins had to give up a substantial amount to acquire Sonny Gray during the last off-season. Minnesota had selected Chase Petty with the 26th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. In his age-19 season, the Reds pushed him to High-A, and he compiled a 3.48 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and 8.8 K/9. Gray is no stranger to trades because he was traded three times in six seasons. In 2022, he pitched 119 2/3 innings with a 125 OPS+ and 8.8 K/9. Like Maeda, he can be a free agent following the 2023 campaign. Minnesota reengaged Cincinnati at last year's trade deadline to acquire Mahle. This time the cost was significantly more, with the Twins trading multiple top prospects, including Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Steve Hajjar, and Spencer Steer. Mahle was limited to 16 1/3 innings with the Twins due to a shoulder injury, but the Twins hope he's healthy in 2023. This trade may haunt the front office if Mahle's shoulder continues to be an issue. The Lopez trade differed from many others mentioned above because both teams included an established big-league player. Lopez and Ryan are the only two pitchers under team control beyond the 2023 season. Over the last three seasons, Lopez has posted a 3.52 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP while averaging 113 innings per season. Fans will expect a lot from Lopez, mainly since the Twins traded fan favorite Luis Arraez. One of the reasons Minnesota hired Derek Falvey was because of the pitching pipeline he helped develop in Cleveland. So far, the Twins have yet to see the results of pitchers developing in the organization's farm system. Every team needs more than five starting pitchers, and the Twins will use homegrown players like Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Cole Sands, Louie Varland, and Jordan Balazovic. Minnesota's top pitching prospects, Connor Prielipp and Marco Raya don't figure to impact the 2023 roster. Starting pitching depth is critical, but the Twins might not be able to continue to trade for rotational help. Time will tell if the Twins surrendered too much to acquire their projected starting rotation. Minnesota has shown a tendency to avoid long-term contracts for starting pitchers, and that's why the trade market has been their go-to method for acquiring talent. The organization's farm system already ranks in the middle of the pack compared to the rest of the league, so it is unsustainable to think the front office can continue to trade prospects to acquire talent. Mid-market teams like the Twins thrive with young players supplementing the big-league roster, and that can't happen if the team continues to trade away prospects. Is this model of building a rotation sustainable for the Twins? Will any of the organization's homegrown pitchers break out in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Coming into the offseason there was no denying that a reunion with Carlos Correa needed to be priority number one. With the Twins never advancing far past their original plan during the season, an offer that Scott Boras would entertain never became present. That meant a pivot needed to happen in acquiring more talent for Rocco Baldelli’s group. Both Christian Vazquez and Joey Gallo are fine additions, but they won’t be enough. It’s certainly possible that whatever is done to raise Minnesota’s payroll as a whole before March is uninspiring. That’s why the bulk of Minnesota’s heavy lifting is going to need to come from within. For a team that believes they were snakebit with injury, and an organization that has seen the graduation of many top prospects, it’s beyond fair to tell those established on the 26-man roster “we need you now.” Among those, these are the five (in no particular order) with the most to prove: Ryan Jeffers This should almost go without saying. The Twins front office had an immense amount of belief in Jeffers when they took him in the 2nd round of the 2018 draft. They then doubled down by trading Mitch Garver to the Texas Rangers prior to last season, and sent the only capable prospect in Ben Rortvedt to New York. Unfortunately he couldn’t recreate the 119 OPS+ from his first 26 Major League games, and instead sank to a career worst .648 OPS while playing just 67 games due to injury. Jeffers looked like he was righting the ship for a time before hitting the injured list, and now with Vazquez in the fold, will be fighting for time again. Gary Sanchez is gone, and the Twins farm system remains relatively empty behind the dish. Having Jeffers put it together would be the long awaited promise everyone has been hoping for. Alex Kirilloff Maybe this is a lot to put on a guy that’s only recently just turned 25-years-old, but Kirilloff is no longer a young player. Still ahead of his prime, the biggest issue here is being healthy and real with where he’s at. Kirilloff never got his surgically repaired wrist right last offseason, and therefore was never able to truly take over in left or at first base for the Twins. He’s now undergone an even more substantial procedure, and while the reports have been encouraging, the waiting game has to end. This is a top prospect that looked like a lineup cornerstone. First base could be his with Miguel Sano gone and Luis Arraez having more utility. Finding a way to be a legitimate big league offensive threat is a must. It starts with health. Trevor Larnach Much like Kirilloff, this is a similar scenario with a player that’s almost an entire year older. Larnach will be 26 for Minnesota this season, and despite the flashes a year ago, he played in just 51 games due to a core muscle injury. The solid on-base and slugging skills are real, and he’s always been praised for his incredible bat. We got to see an advanced defender in left, and that would be a substantial boost to the outfield flanking Byron Buxton. Larnach will be given every opportunity to post better than the 104 OPS+ he had in limited action last season, and there is no reason he should be seen as incapable of reaching that. Staying on the field is a must, and like Kirilloff, he will be expected to contribute from the middle of the lineup. Joe Ryan Maybe this jumps out as a weird inclusion for a guy that was the 2022 Opening Day starter, and someone that posted a 3.55 ERA. The problem is he became a true five-and-dive guy while owning a 3.99 FIP and 4.35 xFIP. Ryan feasted on a lot of bad opponents in the AL Central, but he was battered consistently against better competition. A fine guy to have at the back end of the rotation, Ryan’s necessary workload from 2022 is why the Twins could certainly use another arm better than Sonny Gray or Tyler Mahle. He’ll be 27 this season, and there is no denying this is a quality Major League arm, but with the velocity as limited as it is, does Minnesota have a number three or a number five here? Bailey Ober There are a few other arms that may have merit for the final spot, but it should be the guy currently penciled in for the rotation’s final spot. Ober was good to the tune of a 3.21 ERA and 2.92 FIP last season. Even aside from the more gaudy 4.18 xFIP, the problem has always been what level of reliability he’ll bring to the table. Minnesota trotted out arms in droves during 2022 because guys couldn’t stay healthy. Ober was among them, throwing just 56 innings across 11 starts. 2021 was a professional best inning total going 92 1/3 on the year, but he’s never previously surpassed 80 in a single season despite five years of work. It seems the Twins have developed a capable arm, but it can’t be relied on if it breaks down this often. Looking to rebound in an AL Central that should be tight at the top, it will be on players that have gotten used to the divisional race that need to step up. There is plenty of talent for the Twins to make noise if things break in their direction, but it wouldn’t hurt if they made their own luck as well.

If you like, you can quickly catch up on the ground rules for this exercise in the first installment. The short version is this that we're attempting to rank Twins players and prospects through a big-picture lens in asking: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion? Here in this fourth installment, breaking down my picks for #1 through #5: the cornerstones upon which the Twins will aim to orchestrate their success in the coming years. First, a recap of the list as it stands, as covered in Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3: 20. Matt Wallner, OF 19. Louie Varland, RHP 18. Sonny Gray, RHP 17. Jorge Lopez, RHP 16. Alex Kirilloff, OF/1B 15. Ryan Jeffers, C 14. Trevor Larnach, OF 13. Austin Martin, SS/OF 12. Connor Prielipp, LHP 11. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP 10. Luis Arraez, 1B 9. Jose Miranda, 3B/1B 8. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF 7. Jhoan Duran, RHP 6. Bailey Ober, RHP Top 20 Twins Assets of 2023: 1 through 5 5. Royce Lewis, SS 2022 Ranking: 4 In some ways, Lewis' 2022 season was obviously a huge setback. To come out on the other end of a long, grueling recovery from reconstructive knee surgery, only to reinjure the same ligament and recommence the very same process ... it's an almost unthinkable level of bad fortune. But that's not to say his season was a loss. Far from it. In 46 games between Triple-A and the majors, he showed plenty to solidify his status as a top-five asset in the organization. In 194 total plate appearances he batted .310 with 16 doubles, seven homers, and 12 steals. That includes a debut stint in the majors, filling in for COVID-stricken Carlos Correa, that was so impressive the Twins flipped Lewis' role – from shortstop to utilityman – on the fly in order to rush him back. As we all know, calamity struck soon as soon as he returned. And two straight serious injuries to the same knee, with the latest expected to keep him out until midseason, certainly diminishes his stock. But the talent, the electricity, the youth (still only 23), and especially his future importance cement him as a central asset of this franchise. It's really hard to doubt the kid at this point. 4. Jorge Polanco, 2B 2022 Ranking: 2 Polanco's value mainly derives from his steadiness: he's been a reliable, durable, clutch, consistent fixture near the top of the Twins lineup for years, and likely will be for several more. The 29-year-old is entering his final guaranteed year under contract, at a very reasonable $7.5 million price tag, but Minnesota has team options for 2024 ($10.5M) and 2025 ($12M). This is more favorable to the Twins than a straight three-year deal because they have the ability to pull out and save millions should Polanco collapse. One could argue there are some concerning signs on that front. He posted a career-high K-rate in 2022, causing his batting average to plummet to .235, well below his career .270 mark. He also ended the season on the injured list, with a knee issue adding to his medley of historical ankle injuries. But at the same time, Polanco showed signs of adapting his game to stay productive. His spike in K-rate came attached to a huge increase in walk rate, with an elite 14.4% mark more than doubling his 7.0% rate from 2021. As a result, Polanco posted the second-highest OBP of his career (.346). And while the stat sheet shows a drop-off in power, his batted-ball data was very strong, helping the second baseman produce a stellar .358 xwOB, which suggests his offensive approach is exactly where it needs to be. Polanco's getting older and a little more expensive, but remains an excellent star-caliber player and cornerstone for this franchise. 3. Joe Ryan, RHP 2022 Ranking: 7 In large part, these rankings are about upside and ceiling – as you'll see reflected in the top two choices. Players with a real chance to be cost-controlled superstars and top-tier performers at their position are the primest of assets, generally speaking. But you also need to weigh the probabilities and assign proper value to those who can reliably provide essential services to the team. Thus, Ryan finds himself in the top three. Is he an ace-caliber arm with the tantalizing potential of a Connor Prielipp? No. But what's great about Ryan is that he has no more rungs to climb, no more hurdles to jump, nothing left to prove. He's a bona fide major-league starter with a tremendous track record of durability and consistency on the mound across all levels. For an organization that has no other young pitchers who can rightly say the same, and no veteran starters under control beyond the 2023 season, these qualities make Ryan – who won't be eligible for free agency until after 2027 – an indispensable building block for the rotation going forward. 2. Brooks Lee, SS 2022 Ranking: NR To say the Twins think highly of Lee would be a mighty understatement. They were thrilled to get him with the eighth overall pick in last year's draft, and were so eager to move him through the organization that he concluded his half-season pro debut at Double-A. The baseball world at large is also taking notice. His stellar performance as a 21-year-old pro fresh out of college – .303/.389/.451 with a 20-to-16 K/BB ratio in 139 PA between three levels – quickly earned him distinction as the organization's top prospect in the eyes of many. Not only is the Cal Poly product flashing advanced hitting skills that could push him to the majors quickly, but he's also showing the defensive ability of a guy destined to play at least some shortstop once he gets there. No matter where he ends up on the diamond, Lee figures to be a central contributor on the Twins for many years. 1. Byron Buxton, CF 2022 Ranking: 1 The 2022 season was, in many ways, more of the same for Buxton. Many people would say that in a derisive way – immediately pointing to the injuries that sidelined him for much of the second half – but I mean it in a positive way. When on the field, the center fielder continued to solidify his status as a premier MLB player, earning his first All-Star nod and turning in the third 4+ fWAR season of his career (and second in a row). He set a career high in home runs with 28 while posting a 135 OPS+ and continuing to grade as one of the league's best defensive outfielders. Since 2019, Buxton ranks 36th among all MLB position players in fWAR, which is remarkable when you consider that he's played in literally half of his team's games during that span. (51%, to be exact.) He's one of the highest-impact players in baseball, without question. I am mindful of the factors detracting from Buxton's value as an asset, of course. Namely the injuries, which came roaring back in full force last year, as well as the steps being taken to mitigate those injuries (more days off and DH duty), which take away a bit of what he offers. But, as the aforementioned stats illustrate, he's still offering plenty. And as I wrote last year, his highly favorable contract accounts for all that risk. Even as his annual base salary escalates to an ongoing rate of $15 million annually this year, that's still a huge bargain for what he already provides, let alone the massive upside he brings to the table. I mean, we just saw the White Sox sign Andrew Benintendi to a five-year deal with the same annual rate. Benintendi has once in his career (2018) posted a 4.0 fWAR or better, which Buxton produced in 92 games last year. If the knee issue that tormented Buxton throughout 2022 proves chronic and recurring, that will impact his ability to remain atop this list going forward. For now, I'm keeping that possibility on the back-burner. If he can finally find a way to shake off the injuries and stay somewhat healthy, Buxton will rise to become one of the most valuable player assets in all of baseball.

Previously, we looked back on the five longest home runs by the Minnesota Twins in 2022. Now let’s count down the Twins’ top five pitching performances from the year. 5. Sonny Gray Game Score: 78 September 14 vs. Kansas City Royals 7 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 8 SO (W) data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== This September start from Sonny Gray was a big one as the Twins were still in the thick of a division race for the American League Central title. At the time of the game the Twins were five games back with a five game series against Cleveland yet to come, so this matchup against the Royals was a must-win. Gray took the rubber that day and from the jump wasn’t going to let the Twins lose. 4. Sonny Gray Game Score: 78 May 24 vs. Detroit Tigers 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 10 SO (W) data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== After a number of solid starts to begin the year with the Twins, Sonny Gray’s May 24 start against the Tigers was his first truly dominant start that validated the big offseason trade that brought Gray to the Twins. Gray showed stamina, control and putaway power in this start and gave the Twins the top-of-the-rotation presence that they lost when they traded away José Berríos in 2021. 3. Joe Ryan Game Score: 83 April 27 vs. Detroit Tigers 7 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 9 SO (W) data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== Everyone expected Joe Ryan to be a good pitcher for the Minnesota Twins in 2022, but this April 27 start from the right-hander showed that he has the ceiling to be a top-flight pitcher. Ryan was utterly dominant against the Detroit Tigers and rode that performance to a solid 2022 season in which he posted a 3.55 ERA across 27 starts. Ryan’s progression will be a big x-factor for the Twins in 2023. 2. Bailey Ober Game Score: 83 September 27 vs. Chicago White Sox 7 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 10 SO (W) data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== The best pitching performance in Bailey Ober’s young career, unfortunately, came in a meaningless September game between two teams that were already well out of the playoff picture. While the game was meaningless for the Twins and their playoff chances, a dominant start like Bailey Ober had in his penultimate appearance of the season is the type of outing that he can take into the offseason, build on, and hopefully use as a springboard for a great 2023 season. 1. Joe Ryan Game Score: 84 September 13 vs. Kansas City Royals 7 IP, 0 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 9 SO (W) data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== The most dominant pitching performance for the Minnesota Twins in 2022 will, oddly enough, not even be remembered for the pitching of Joe Ryan. Instead, the performance will be remembered for Rocco Baldelli deciding to pull Joe Ryan from the game in the 8th inning, rather than letting Ryan try to finish out the game. Heading into the 8th inning, Ryan was at 106 pitches. Many were frustrated that Ryan didn’t get a chance to accomplish history, but at such a high pitch count, Baldelli’s long-view motivations were certainly understandable. Which of these pitching performances will you most remember? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

During the Winter Meetings, baseball organizations spent over $2 billion on player contracts Minnesota sat out on that frenzy, but it’s not as though they won’t still dole out dollars. What they do have going for them is a very clear blueprint as to what type of talent is needed. Last offseason, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made a pact with mid-level starter Dylan Bundy, and then picked Chris Archer off the scrap heap late in the offseason. The hope was that they could provide a level of consistency behind the likes of Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, effectively making them mediocre veterans. Coming into this year, the Twins have a stable that includes Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and a few others. They don’t need to clog the back of their rotation with 'mediocre' veterans. The good news is that those types are costly. Taijuan Walker just got four years and $72 million from the Phillies after posting his first sub-4.00 ERA in a full season since 2017. Former Yankees starter Jameson Taillon was given four years and $68 million by the Cubs following his first sub-4.00 ERA since 2018 and having missed the 2020 season. Zach Eflin, despite his 3.57 FIP the past three seasons, has a 4.49 career ERA and the Tampa Bay Rays handed him $40 million over three seasons. The mid-level pitching market has truly gone bananas. All of those names could certainly be argued as better than both Bundy and Archer, but the reality is that in recent seasons the Twins front office has needed those types just to get to five arms. In being able to avoid that group entirely, the refrain has been an arm at the level of Sonny Gray or better. There are only so many of those types on the free agent market, but a few remain. There was never a point in which Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander were realistic options for the Twins, and Carlos Rodon probably has too many suitors to be thought of as a true possibility as well. Maybe Chris Bassitt, Noah Syndergaard, and Nathan Eovaldi are still in play, while the trade market has an endless amount of possibilities. Each of the types Minnesota now need will come with a price tag, but at least they aren’t paying pennies on the dollar for innings rather than performance. This is a different scenario for Falvey and Levine to navigate. They pulled off the Gray trade prior to Opening Day last offseason, and they swung big for Tyler Mahle at the deadline. Both of those arms advance the overall ability of the starting rotation, and they have a clear picture of the talent level they must acquire. We have yet to see the Twins pitching pipeline develop something like a number one starter, although Joe Ryan may someday get there. What it has done is provide a considerable amount of depth with respectable floors for a team that has often churned through arms. Knowing how many different starters took the mound a season ago, the reality is that Rocco Baldelli’s club is going to need at least 10 guys capable of throwing something like 50 innings in 2023. Sure, the Twins have money to spend, but it is a relief to not need to overspend on a veteran that likely won’t move the needle.

When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine decided to flip Nelson Cruz at the 2021 trade deadline, there was little downside. He was trending downward and not getting younger. While the Tampa Bay Rays often have a plethora of strong prospects, it’s not often they move one that works out against them. Although Joe Ryan may have faced a roster crunch in Tampa, he immediately burst onto the scene for the Twins. In just five big-league starts in 2021, Ryan looked the part of a big-league arm. There were definitely bumps along the way, but it was assumed he’d be a part of the 2022 Opening Day rotation. Even after acquiring Sonny Gray, Rocco Baldelli decided that it would be Ryan who made the first start of 2022. When the dust settled last year, Ryan put up a strong 3.55 ERA and was arguably the team’s healthiest arm. Hidden behind the strong numbers are an opportunity for more, however, and unlocking that in 2023 could be key. There was reason to believe that Ryan had another step up from the limited sample in 2021. Despite not being a velocity-reliant pitcher, he posted a 3.43 FIP and 10.1 K/9. Last season his 3.99 FIP was a bit worse, but he still tallied a solid 9.2 K/9 and worked around the longball. The former Tampa prospect has done a great job forcing opposing batters into situations where he can emerge victorious, and it’s helped to strengthen his overall production. What remains to be seen is whether Ryan can put it together against stiff competition. It is fair to note that the AL Central may be the worst division in baseball. Cleveland took the trophy despite being seen as an afterthought. Chicago should have been better but should now be on a downswing. Both the Tigers and Royals have promise, but it remains to be seen how quickly they can put it together. In short, the division will continue to be advantageous for the Twins hurler. Outside of it is another issue entirely. Facing a World Series winning Astros team in May, Ryan gave up four runs and recorded just 12 outs. Seattle got him for another four runs in just 4 2/3 innings during June before the Padres put up a 10-spot to round out July. In August, he gave up six runs (five earned) to the Dodgers, and the Yankees knocked him out after four runs in four innings in September. Against teams with winning records, things didn’t go so well. The easiest way to break that down is to suggest that better lineups are harder to pitch against. That should be obvious, but that is where Ryan needs to find tweaks to his approach over the winter. As Minnesota again has postseason aspirations, those are the teams they must beat, and the same teams they’ll face over the course of an elimination series. It’s probably not fair to believe Ryan will ever have the makings of an ace given his stuff. He certainly could be a solid number three starter though, and what keeps him being more than a back-end arm is competing no matter who steps into the box. Another step forward in 2023 would be huge for the Twins youngster, and it would go a long way towards helping to carry a rotation that needs arms to step up.

2022 Recap: Ryan joined the Twins at the 2021 trade deadline and made five starts at the season's end with 30 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings. It was an impressive start to his big-league career, raising expectations for his 2022 campaign. All three national prospect rankings had him on their top-100 lists entering the season. During spring training, Rocco Baldelli named Ryan the Opening Day starter, which added pressure to the start of his rookie campaign. Ryan ended up leading the Twins starters in innings pitched, K/9, and WHIP. Only Dylan Bundy started more games than Ryan, and only two pitchers (Jhoan Duran and Sonny Gray) ranked higher than him in WAR. Still, his rookie campaign was impressive, with a 109 ERA+. His Hard Hit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and K% all ranked in the 63rd percentile or higher. He surpassed his career high in innings by nearly 25, and his strikeout rate jumped from 7.9 to 10.7 K/9 in the second half. Ryan's lack of secondary pitch usage was one of the most significant issues in his minor league numbers. He was able to dominate hitters with a fastball up in the zone which resulted in some high strikeout totals. Last year, he used his four-seam fastball around 60% of the time, but his slider's development helped keep hitters off balance. Batters hit .245 against his slider but slugged nearly .500 against it. However, the xSLG versus his slider was 143 points lower, so that might point to luck from batters against that pitch. If Ryan wants to be a top-tier starter, he will need to continue refining his secondary offerings. Current Contract: Ryan is in an interesting spot because he didn't debut until age 25. The Twins currently have team control of Ryan through the 2027 season when he'd be 32 years old. In fact, he won't be arbitration eligible until the 2025 season. A lot can happen with a pitcher over the next half of a decade before he reaches free agency. Injuries and poor performance can impact even the best young pitchers, but Ryan and the Twins are at an interesting point in his career. Contract Proposal: Ryan has yet to make life-changing money in his career. As a seventh-round pick, his signing bonus was $147,500, and he will make close to the league minimum ($700,000) until he reaches arbitration. Last season, Braves rookie pitcher Spencer Strider signed a six-year, $75 million deal that includes option years. He will make $1 million in each of the next two seasons and $4 million in 2025. His salary will jump to $20 million in 2026 and then move to $22 million for the final two guaranteed years. Atlanta also holds a $22 million option with a $5 million buyout for 2029. Atlanta has been aggressive with signing their young players, and it is undoubtedly a strategy the Twins could explore. However, Strider had a historic rookie season, while Ryan didn't pitch to that level. A more reasonable option for Ryan could be six years, $31 million with the following structure. 2023: $1m (1.033) - Age 27 2024: $2m (2.033) - Age 28 2025: $3m (3.033 - 1st Arb) - Age 29 2026: $5m (4.033 - 2nd Arb) - Age 30 2027: $7.5m (5.033 - 3rd Arb) - Age 31 2028: $10m (6.033 - FA) - Age 32 2029: $18m option (with $2.5m buyout) - 2nd FA - Age 33 This deal adds two extra years of team control and guarantees Ryan a lot of money at an early juncture in his career. Would the Twins consider this kind of offer for a young pitcher? Would Ryan accept this kind of deal? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. OTHER EXTENSION CANDIDATES - Sonny Gray - Luis Arraez

Rocco Baldelli has to be feeling good about having some starting pitchers put down in ink. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine haven’t stocked the Minnesota rotation with a high-level of talent in recent years, largely opting for upside plays. Now the Twins have at least a few arms that should be seen as high-level talent, but to what extent can any of the arms Minnesota employs be counted on? Sonny Gray It’s become a trend for starting pitchers to contribute less innings in recent seasons. Bullpens have emerged as a force late in games, and that’s going to limit the length for any starting arm. That said, Gray threw just 119 2/3 innings during his first year with the Twins, his lowest total of his career. He dealt with hamstring problems throughout the year, and while he did look like a staff ace at times, he was also unavailable in key moments. Tyler Mahle Acquired at the trade deadline from the Cincinnati Reds, Mahle has the makings of a true ace. His underlying metrics are eye-popping, and seeing him take a step forward is hardly a lofty expectation. He did deal with shoulder issues earlier in the summer however, and they then popped up again with Minnesota. The Twins got just 16 1/3 innings from their newly acquired talent, and he couldn’t make it through more than two innings in his final outing of the season. He’d been relatively healthy prior to 2022, but shoulder issues are never good for a pitcher. Kenta Maeda The Twins got a near-Cy Young winner in 2020 when Maeda posted a 2.70 ERA during the truncated season. He then threw just over 100 innings in 2021 and posted a 4.66 ERA. Having undergone Tommy John surgery and not making it back for 2022, it will have been nearly two years since Maeda last pitched in a big league game. Sure, there’s lots to like here and the track record on UCL surgeries isn’t what it once was, but Maeda will be 35 next season and the question marks couldn’t be larger. Joe Ryan You can certainly make the argument that there’s questions as to whether Ryan can handle good lineups as he struggled against stiff competition for most of 2022. What is much more certain is that the former Tampa Bay Rays prospect appears to be a pillar of health. He has remained a constant on the field since becoming a big leaguer, and while he’s probably more a number three starter than anything else, you can count on him to take the ball every fifth day. Bailey Ober Minnesota came up with some found money in developing Ober as a strong starter despite being a 12th round draft pick. He’s never pitched more than 92 1/3 innings during any pro season however, and has consistently been able to give much less. Injuries have been a consistent theme during the course of his career, and while effective, he’s largely been unavailable. Josh Winder Similar to Ober, Winder has only sparingly shown an ability to be available. He threw 125 2/3 innings during his first full professional season in 2019, and then failed to top 90 innings in either of the two seasons since. Winder is a good depth arm that can back up the end of a good rotation, but he’s certainly a question mark to remain healthy. Chris Paddack Acquired from the San Diego Padres in the Taylor Rogers trade, it was Paddack that drew Minnesota’s attention more than Emilio Pagan. Unfortunately he was available for a depressed price because of his injury concern. He’s now undergone a second Tommy John surgery, and won’t be back until mid-summer at the earliest. He looked sharp in his limited exposure for Minnesota, but counting on him in any real capacity is tough. Beyond those names there’s the group including Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland. The Twins hope to have some of their pipeline produce in 2023 and beyond. Maybe Jordan Balazovic can find whatever he lost a season ago, and maybe there’s another guy or two that pop up to become relevant. The reality is, while Minnesota needs a top-tier arm to start a playoff game, they probably need one simply because of the uncertainty that surrounds who will be available, and for how long, in 2023.

BLOOMINGTON – The Minnesota Twins have a new look for the 2023 season, and fans, front office members, and players gathered at the Mall of America on Friday to see the new design of the Twins jerseys. Revealing the first new jersey design on the baseball diamond catwalk was Jose Miranda in the new home, white jerseys. Miranda is coming off an impressive rookie season with the Twins leading the team in RBI. He is most excited about accessorizing his cleats and glove with the new look. “I haven't really customized cleats yet but for sure next year. I want to do something with them and there are some people that want to meet on some designs during the winter with custom cleats. I'm gonna do something but I got to see what we're going to wear on Opening Day,” said Miranda. Matthew Wolff, a longtime Twins fan and designer for the new Twins look, spoke on keeping the history of the old with the new uniforms. “It was really important to respect the history of the team. Twins fans have a strong emotional attachment to the team's marks and uniforms and it was really important from the start of the project to respect them.” The message that the Twins organization wanted to incorporate with the new uniform designs was to include the state of Minnesota as a whole, and not just the Twin Cities. The new M hats now include the North Star above them to add that state-wide incorporation. While not directly an homage to the old North Stars hockey team, Wolff hopes fans could recognize it as one and appreciate the tie-in to an old franchise. The player consensus for which of the new uniforms is their favorite goes toward the new road grey jerseys. These jerseys call back to the Twins road uniforms from 1987-2009, while still incorporating the new M design for the road. Luis Arraez had the honor of sporting the new road uni and believes they will be a good luck charm. “I think we can score like 10 runs with these uniforms every game. I can't wait to wear this next year,” said Arraez. His teammate Jorge Polanco did wear the same pants but had on the new navy blue road, alternative jersey. Polanco, slightly jealous he didn’t wear the greys, still complemented Arraez appearance in them. “He’s [Arraez] wearing it, he looks good. I wish I would have worn it.” The material that goes into making these jerseys is also new, which Polanco already feels will be better for each game. “It’s a lot lighter and that makes us feel easier to move around the infield,” said Polanco. The only Twins pitcher in attendance was Joe Ryan, rocking the new home, navy blue alternative jerseys. Ryan (top picture) had the most exciting catwalk on the diamond stage, running out as if he had just finished throwing a no-hitter. The only thing missing to add a grand crescendo to Ryan's stage walk/run was his famous turtle neck under the jersey. "They said be quicker, so I was like, 'Alright, take a zip around the bases," said Ryan. The man dawning the newest alternative home jerseys for the team was star centerfielder Byron Buxton. Buxton spoke on how the new uniforms keep the Twins' tradition intact while also evolving it. “When I got drafted in 2012 it was pinstripes. To come out of that was a little bit different, knowing the Minnesota tradition was pinstripes. But over the years we've tried to change tradition quite a bit so this is just a new look for us. We got a new team, a new outlook, new meaning for us and this is just the start of something new,” said Buxton. While the decision for which of the Twins' uniforms will be worn on Opening Day is still months away. Fans can narrow it down to either the new pinstripe grey, road uniforms, or alternate navy blues as the Twins start the season in Kansas City on March 30. Fans can now buy the new uniforms at the Twins team store at Target Field, Mall of America or order them online at Twinsbaseball.com/shop.

The Rays were likely willing to part with Joe Ryan because of his pitch mix concerns, as he dominated every stop in the minors by using a unique fastball almost exclusively. The pitch was deceptive and unhittable, as his low arm slot made it hard for hitters to anticipate where the ball is going to end up. No fastball is good enough to sustainably dominate the majors, however, and Ryan is set to work on diversifying his pitch mix in 2022. He threw his fastball 60% of the time in 2022, down about 5% from 2021 as he began mixing sliders 20% of the time while also throwing an occasional changeup or curveball. His final line of a 3.55 ERA across 147 innings points to this pitch mix change being a massive success, although there is some context to consider. Ryan had a few months that prevented him from putting up some eye-popping numbers in his rookie season. In June, he posted a 5.74 ERA, followed by a 5.06 mark in July and a 4.13 in August. At the time the explanation was the difficulties he was having returning from COVID, which likely did carry some weight. Still, almost every bit of failure Ryan had in 2022 stemmed from his offspeed offerings. Ryan’s slider allowed a .245/.330/.497 line, his changeup .277/.492/.355, and his curveball .286/.333/.393. For comparison sake, his fastball allowed a .145/.263/.300 mark. It seemed like every home run he allowed was on an offspeed pitch. After plenty of scouting reports saying Ryan was a reliever because of his pitch mix, the floor that many worried about showed itself for several months. Even with his solid final numbers, the questions that were raised about Joe Ryan being able to navigate top-tier lineups remain. Moving forward there’s reason to be optimistic. The biggest issue of Ryan’s game is clearly the success of his offspeed pitches, and the final numbers on them certainly validate those concerns. Ryan got incredibly unlucky according to his expected numbers for the entire season. His slider accounted for 40% of the home runs he gave up despite throwing it just 40% of the time. The pitch allowed a .245 BA but had a .221 expected batting average. While getting clubbed to the tune of a .497 SLG, the pitch had an expected SLG of just .354, an even better mark than his highly touted fastball. This is true of both his changeup and curve as well, as all of his secondaries' actual numbers were on the wrong side of the expected stats. This is no call to reward Ryan for what Statcast says his pitches “should” be. There are a lot of factors that go into expected numbers. It is odd however that in a season where the ball was assumedly changed to negatively impact offense that Ryan would underperform so consistently. There’s no telling how these pitches will look in 2023, but it's safe to assume that Ryan and the Twins will continue to refine these offspeed pitches, and the deep numbers say they have a surprisingly strong base to build off of. His slider in particular appears to have a chance at being his best pitch based on the expected stats and the near 30% whiff rate. Things often went wrong when Joe Ryan turned to his secondary pitches in 2022. It confirmed many of the predictions that were made about the fastball first right-hander and likely still leaves a few concerned about his future as a starter. Still, Ryan put up dominant stretches despite these struggles, and the final numbers say that his pitch mix isn’t nearly the disaster some thought. In 2023, Ryan’s goal will surely be to establish one more reliable offering to pair with his fastball. Doing so opens a whole new ceiling for a pitcher that already helped anchor the rotation in 2022. The best part is, Joe Ryan is closer than we think.

Baseball organizations tend to follow the trends set by other successful teams. In recent years, the Braves have solidified themselves as a model franchise, and other organizations will look to copy their winning model. The club's ability to sign players to long-term contracts is part of its success. Is this approach something the Twins should consider? Earlier this week, the Braves announced they signed rookie starting pitcher Spencer Strider to an extension that buys out his arbitration seasons while giving the team two extra years of control. Michael Harris II, another Braves rookie, also signed an extension earlier this season that followed a similar structure. These aren't the only players the Braves have been able to lock up. Besides Strider and Harris, Atlanta has also signed some of their other top players to long-term deals. Matt Olson and Austin Riley signed extensions during the 2022 season. Previously, the Braves had signed Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies to very friendly long-term deals. Atlanta is guaranteeing money to players beyond their arbitration years which has risk, but the Braves are hoping to see the players outperform the value they are paying. The Braves and the Twins have different philosophies when creating their rosters. Atlanta has over $150 million in guaranteed money on the books for 2024, with nearly $100 million going out as far as 2028. Minnesota's front office likes to have payroll flexibility and tends to avoid long-term deals. Byron Buxton and Randy Dobnak are the only Twins players with options that extend beyond 2025. During the 2022 season, the Braves' payroll ranked in baseball's top 10, while the Twins ranked slightly below league average at 16th. Atlanta's long-term investments come with inherited risk. Players can suffer catastrophic injuries and miss significant playing time. There is also no guarantee that these players will continue to develop at the big-league level. The Braves have already won a World Series, and they hope they can contend for multiple other titles over the next five years. Fans can forget poor play if World Series flags are flying forever. Atlanta can also hope that a few of these players produce at a superstar level to outweigh the dead money on the other contracts. For the Twins to follow the Braves' strategy, the right players are needed to make these deals work out in the team's favor. Minnesota signed Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler to team-friendly extensions, and an argument can be made that both contracts worked out in the team's favor. Polanco's contract can max out at $48.25 million, and he has provided the Twins with nearly $80 million in value since 2019. Kepler's deal can be worth just over $42 million, and he has been worth $72.6 million. Those deals have worked out in Minnesota's favor, so who can the team target for extensions? Health has been the biggest issue for young Twins players, including many of the team's recent top prospects like Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Matt Canterino, and Trevor Larnach. All these players might be extension candidates if health wasn't a question at the beginning of their big-league careers. Those aren't the only players who are extension candidates following the 2022 season. Luis Arraez, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, and Jose Miranda are some younger players the Twins could consider for a long-term extension. Arraez won his first batting title in 2022, and the Twins have him under team control for three more seasons. It will be harder to lock-up Arraez as he gets closer to free agency. Ryan, Duran, and Miranda are pre-arbitration eligible, so they are under team control through the 2027 season. The Twins can try and sign them early to gain extra years of team control. Minnesota's current front office likes to clean the team's long-term books, which allows for more flexibility. However, other teams are locking up their young players to help the organization continue to win. Do you think the Twins front office needs to change strategies? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.