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This Twins front office has taken a few big swings on relief additions in their tenure and often whiffed. From Addison Reed to Jorge Lopez, it’s easy to see why the Twins may have developed a belief that bullpens aren’t worth majorly investing in. With a decline in payroll headed into 2024, we should expect them to show a good bit of restraint again. They would certainly be justified in doing so. Many believed the Twins could have benefitted from one more high-leverage reliever headed in 2023. It never hurts, after all. The Twins had reason to believe the top end of their bullpen was a strength between Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Lopez. Of course, Griffin Jax piled up blown leads early, and Lopez was eventually DFAed. Luckily, Brock Stewart emerged from Triple-A, and Jax righted the ship down the stretch to still have a formidable top of the bullpen by season’s end. This trio will return in 2024, assuming good health. Duran is likely the undisputed closer at this point. A case can be made to slot Stewart in as the setup man after he struck out nearly 36% of the hitters he faced, and Jax had a down season by his standards. Either way, this group combined for just over 155 innings in 2023 with a cumulative 3.1 Wins Above Replacement. It’s a back end of a bullpen many competitive teams would envy on paper. Caleb Thielbar should be back as a high-leverage, left-handed reliever capable of facing both righties and lefties. The question, of course, is health with the 36-year-old after repeated oblique issues limited him to just over 30 innings. He still struck out over 36% of opposing hitters and posted a 3.23 ERA on the season. Emilio Pagán’s departure will be noteworthy, though it’s important to remember that while his numbers were great, he pitched almost solely in low leverage. The problem at times last season was the middle relief group. The Twins cycled in several arms, hoping a few would stick, and it cost them some wins. Jovani Moran looked to build on a solid 2022 season and couldn’t do so. He’s now undergoing Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss all of 2024. Jorge Alcala has never really put it all together, and he has health questions of his own. Players like Cole Sands just never did enough to stick around. Luckily, down the stretch, the Twins finally gave Kody Funderburk a shot. In 12 innings, he allowed one run and stuck out over 40% of the hitters he faced. It’s a small sample, but the lefty has a history of retiring hitters from both sides of the plate while picking up a healthy amount of strikeouts. There’s at least a tiny hope that a few other internal options emerge to fill the middle innings. Jordan Balazovic’s MLB debut was unsuccessful, but if he is fully prepared as a traditional one-inning reliever, he may rediscover the talent that once made him a top prospect. Josh Winder began throwing a two-seam fastball down the stretch that would hopefully solve the fastball woes that have held him back despite a solid secondary pitch mix. The Twins are in a better spot with the bullpen than in recent years. There are plenty of red flags, both health and performance-wise, but that’s to be expected on any roster. We may see them add a reliever this winter; it’s never a bad idea. It may be likelier that whoever they bring in is more of a flier for a few million dollars or even a waiver claim. The odds of the Twins bringing in a big-time arm for the back innings, at least at market price, are extremely low. With the foundation they have in place and the payroll space they’re working with, we may see them more or less stand pat. Unlike in some recent years, doing so would be more justified. Do you agree?

On the field, fans watched Rocco Baldelli and the Minnesota Twins play American League Central Division-winning baseball. The 2023 squad ended an 18-year postseason drought, and they swept a Toronto Blue Jays team while besting former ace Jose Berrios in an elimination game. Behind the scenes, pitchers like Chris Paddack and Jorge Alcala were working their way back toward the active roster with an eye on competing alongside their teammates. Paddack ultimately realized the goal and looked great when deployed in September and October. As those bullpen sessions took place, I connected with Bryan Ludwig, a catcher doing it all behind the scenes. Despite working as an attorney, Ludwig has had the pleasure of working with the Twins as a bullpen catcher. Wondering what that experience has been like, what he has seen, and especially the development of arms this season, it seemed like a good time to connect. Twins Daily: How do you wind up as a bullpen catcher in a major league organization? What does your baseball background look like? Bryan Ludwig: I grew up in Woodbury and played ball at Woodbury High School ('04). I attended Augsburg University, where I played ball as a C/1B/DH (2004-2008). I also played for and ran the St. Paul Mudhens (Class A Townball) from 2005-2020, managing the team from 2010-2020. Since 2020, I've been playing summer ball in the Federal League (35+) for the Lakeville Lobos and moonlighting with Baseball 365's townball team. I've been a coach with the Minnesota Twins Youth Training Academy and the RBI Program since 2010. I work traveling camps/clinics in the spring/summer and train catchers in the offseason. I have also worked in club baseball as a head coach and trainer. Mostly with Great Lakes Baseball Academy until recently. Having a seven and nine-year-old is pulling me into the coach-dad realm lately with little league and softball. I've also been a volunteer assistant coach back with Augsburg, working with their catchers in fall ball and early spring, and since 2020, I've been working with the Midwest Speed Softball Club, training their catchers during their winter season. Rehab bullpen catching is a story of "right place, right time, right person." I had a unique skill set with unique connections that enabled me to meet a unique need. I was just a volunteer with the Twins academy in 2009, trying to log hours for my volunteer requirements at law school. The Twins' lefty specialist bullpen thrower was the one running those camps at the time, and leading up to the start of 2010, he got wind that the Twins were asking around about having a local catcher on-call to be a bullpen guy. The ask was to work with the training staff as guys rehabbed and fill in for home games as needed. This was a completely new role with the christening of Target Field. While they were in the Dome, an injury was a one-way ticket to Ft. Myers to rehab because no on-site facilities were available. With Target Field opening and a state-of-the-art training room and team doctors on-site, they needed someone who could work out with the pitchers when the team was on the road, during off days, or when the full-time bullpen catcher was unavailable or needed a break. It was late March 2010, and I got a call from the Twins bullpen guy in the middle of one of my classes. He explains the situation and asked if I would be interested in reporting to Target Field the following week to work with Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Carl Pavano on the field so they could get on the big mound before the home opener. The rest is history from there, I have been in this role since, except pausing during the pandemic when the organization limited who was in/around the clubhouse. I am grateful for the schedule flexibility my job as an attorney has provided to enable me to stay connected to the game, even in this small way. I have gotten to meet and interact with many amazing baseball people, and I hope to continue doing this as long as I am physically able. TD: When you get behind the plate for the Twins, what goes into that preparation? Are you working with anyone from the team to ensure you know what each guy wants to do? BL: There are two routes this goes: the in-game route and the rehab route. In-game, the preparation for the catcher is minimal. It is dictated by the situation and the call from the dugout. Also, each pitcher has their own preparation timeline. Unless it is a "get hot immediately" call, you have a general idea of who will be getting up depending on the inning and the situation. The bullpen coach and pitcher control the pen, but most of these guys have such a finely tuned internal clock they know exactly how long it will take to get hot as soon as that phone rings. Most guys will start throwing plyo balls and stretching around the 5th/6th inning, and once they get on the mound, it is anywhere between 15-25 pitches to get hot. The other job in-game is warming up left field. Otherwise, the bullpen is just baseball guys being baseball guys on the bench. For rehab work, it is a little more regimented. The training staff establishes a back-to-throwing program with built-in bullpen days. On those days, there is usually some pre-bullpen treatment and workout for the pitcher: long toss to a specific distance, some throw a short flat ground pen to work on release points and grip, and then a full pen on the big mound or out in the home bullpen. Everything monitored closely to ensure all the movements and metrics are improving or back to normal for a guy before they can go out on minor league assignment for a start or in-game relief work. The training staff I have worked with have been amazing at letting me use of all the tools and resources the big leaguers get to use to get ready to throw. On rehab days, I check in with the trainer to get the session plan, do some light band work and stretching, get on my shins, and head out to the first baseline for long toss. (I'm a Minnesota Townballer. Show-n-go is how we roll.) TD: This season, we saw the Twins put together one of their best starting rotations in franchise history. What was it like to work with those guys, and how was their stuff different than what you had seen in the past? BL: There is no denying that this was one of the most talented staffs the Twins have had in a long time. Aside from pure talent, one of the things that made this staff unique is that each pitcher, starting or relief, was uniquely complimentary to every one of the other guys on the roster. Pablo Lopez and Jhoan Duran did it with power and flair, Sonny Gray and Caleb Thielbar were bulldogs with control and finesse. Up and down the staff, there was a near-perfect balance of power and finesse, and guys like Pablo and Sonny took the lead on establishing a bulldog mentality across the staff. As an inside-outside observer, there were no wasted opportunities, and they attacked offenses versus just trying to hold an offense off. A lot of credit also goes to the Twins pitching coaches who fostered and supported that approach and gave all of these guys the tools and information necessary to find another edge or slight adjustment to add to their personal pitch arsenal. When you've seen big league "stuff," it is all elite, and pitching has outpaced hitting in how it is tracked, analyzed, and adjusted. I can talk about my thoughts on that for hours. Still, I think what made this staff so difficult was the consistency of its makeup that gave opposing offenses the sense that getting a starter out of a game only meant a constant barrage of difficult arms from the pen and on the days the starters went deep, they were equally unhittable. TD: Having done work with some of the guys rehabbing with the intention of making it back for the postseason, what tipped you off that they may be ready? How did their stuff look? BL: There are all kinds of measurables and metrics (spin rate, pitch depth, pitch shape, velocity, vertical break, horizontal break, etc.) that can give the team confidence that a guy is ready to step back on a big league mound. Those are all invaluable data points, but from my position, there is also a perceptible change in how a particular pitch moves or the snap of my mitt that I can tell the last piece has clicked into place. For some guys, it's that "out pitch" that bites a little harder, that changeup that disappears like a magic trick at 59 feet, or the fastball that has little lift that tells you "this guy is back." Sometimes, it's even a simple look they give after they let go of that breaking pitch at 100% for the first time, and it has the life and movement they expect. When they start repeating that output on the rehab mound, you can visibly see a weight lifted off their shoulders. I think any catcher would agree, when a pitcher is dialed in and that glove snap is just a little bit louder, you just have the intuitive sense that no hitter will be able to touch it. For all the data and technology, there is still a lot of raw feel in the moment that informs that player that they're ready. The tech, trainers, and coaches will confirm it, but that moment is always fun to be even a small part of. TD: You have seen plenty of pitchers while working behind the plate. Is there a guy or a pitch that jumps out as something that has always just been special? BL: 2014 All-Star Game aside (that is another fun story), It is not velocity that impresses. It is the movement and pinpoint control these guys have on pitches that can move 22 inches horizontally or drop 14 inches and still catch a corner. For the Twins, if you want to talk about wipeout pitches, it is tough to beat a Francisco Liriano slider or a vintage Joe Nathan curveball. However, that Duran splinker is, in fact, some ridiculous voodoo magic. Regarding a special moment, I spent an entire summer with Michael Pineda as he rehabbed from TJ. Seeing him progress and become a force in the rotation in 2019 was incredible. That grind was real, and he poured everything he had into it. That human element gets lost sometimes with fans who don't get to see that day-to-day drive and passion first-hand. TD: For Minnesota going into 2024, how confident should the quality of depth returning make fans feel about the pitching? Why can this group go out and again put up strong numbers? BL: It will be tough to replace some of the departing arms, but there is real buy-in from the returners to what the training and coaching staff want to develop with these guys individually and as a cohesive unit. The seasoning of some of our younger arms, along with the sustained presence of key vets, makes for a firm foundation to build off of the successes of this season. The bullpen will remain a force, and will be anchored by one of the most electric closers in the game (Duran), but Paddack is the guy I am most excited about. It is a bit of a wild card at this point, but if the Twins don't re-sign Gray and assuming a healthy season, I think his range of outcomes starts at something like 70-80% of what Sonny gave this rotation to a seamless replacement from Paddack in 2024. In both circumstances, Twins fans should be excited by that. TD: End it with something fun. What has been one of the best moments or stories you can share since working in this role? BL: I had the honor of serving as one of the bullpen catchers during All-Star Weekend in 2014. I was assigned to the World team during the Futures Game and the American League during the workout day, Home Run Derby, and All-Star Game. I was in the World bullpen for the Futures game and got to warm up a young stud named Jose Berrios before his start. This is where I have to get romantic about baseball because it is rare that you recognize one of those "stop and take it in" moments, but that was certainly it. During the game, I got to work with players who span the globe, some of whom didn't speak English. Each of the pins on the globe, MLB team affiliations, and varied languages didn't matter on that day because we all spoke the same language of baseball. There were no cross-ups. No missed signs. Just a couple of guys having a catch on a warm July evening with each new pitcher that entered the game. There are many other moments and experiences from that weekend and the years of being granted the opportunity to strap on the gear and play this small role with my favorite childhood team. That particular experience sits at the top for me because it was the perfect baseball microcosm. At the end of the day, players will come and go, and teams will rise and fall, but the game holds this baseball community together. The game lights us up every February as teams report to Spring Training and a new season begins. From the tee-baller in a jersey five sizes too big to the big leaguer catching the last out of the World Series, the game is the heartbeat. **** Baseball is a sport everyone experiences differently, and the barrier to entry is so low. While mastering the game is an art form, appreciating it is beyond a straightforward understanding. Bryan Ludwig does something fun outside of his regular work schedule, and hearing how that has all played out was quite the experience.

The lost opportunity of 2020 was no prospect's fault. Minor-leaguers, like many others around the world, were dealt a bad hand; in some cases, at very costly times in their development. Some did get MLB playing time such as Ryan Jeffers who played in his first 26 MLB games in the shortened 60-game season. Others have yet to find the crack on an active roster after missing out on an entire professional season. Enough time has now passed and three full seasons of Major and Minor League Baseball have been completed. So where did each of the Twins' top 30 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline, finish their 2023 seasons? Let’s find out. On active rosters for the end of 2023 1. Royce Lewis At long last, Lewis arrived at the majors full-time, and he did not disappoint. He was still limited to 58 games, returning on Memorial Day and facing strained hamstring that sidelined him from July to mid-August. Lewis returned as the best power hitter with the bases loaded any rookie has ever been. He’s quickly become known as Mr. Grand Slam, per teammate Chris Paddack. He carried the team on his back in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against Toronto, hitting the only two home runs the team needed to win. Lewis has finally arrived and exceeded the expectations that were put on him when he was drafted number one overall in 2017. The next mountain for this future star to climb over is remaining healthy for at least 75% of the season. If he can repeat the same level of success he had in the majors this year, then he will be a force to reckon with in 2024. 2. Alex Kirilloff Kirilloff didn't make it through the playoffs but he finished the regular season healthy. The injuries still derailed Kirilloff even as he reached a career-high of 88 games played in 2023. His best stretch of the season came from Memorial Day weekend until his shoulder injury sidelined him in Kansas City at the end of July, performing as one of the Twins' best hitters at the time. The unfortunate side with Kirilloff is his inescapability of the injury bug, but good news came through when doctors found no tear in his labrum surgery. As of now, he is projected to be fully healthy for spring training, which could lead to the first-ever fully healthy season of his MLB career. 3. Trevor Larnach Larnach had an up-and-down season both literally and figuratively. He split more time between the Twins active roster and St. Paul Saints than any other player. His time in St. Paul showed more flourishment than his time in the majors as he posted a .271/.384/.504 triple slash with a .888 OPS across 323 plate appearances with the Saints. But with the Twins, it was a .213/.311/.415 triple slash with a .727 OPS across 212 plate appearances. While it isn’t quite clear if Larnach will remain a Twin this offseason, his playing time both in the majors and minors over the last few seasons has landed him as a 4th outfielder with this team. Matt Wallner has surpassed him in the pecking order of Twins corner outfielders and Larnach turns 27 in February. If he wants to finally land a full-time role before he’s out of his prime age, he may have a better chance of that with a different team than the Twins. 5. Jhoan Duran Duran looked a little more human in 2023 than his lights-out rookie season last year. Despite that, he was still the hardest-throwing pitcher in baseball topping out the fastest pitch thrown in 2023 at 104.8 MPH. Even with five blown saves on the season and an ERA that jumped from 1.86 in 2022 to 2.45 in 2023, Duran was the man he’s lived up to be out of the bullpen when it mattered the most in the postseason. The sky will continue to be the only limit for Duran in 2024. Twins fans will continue to hope the flamethrowing 26-year-old will continue on his path as one of the best relievers this franchise has ever seen. 6. Ryan Jeffers The catcher's 2022 season pushed him into a backup role, but 2023 saw him improve from those struggles and take over the Twins' starting role in the postseason. With his numbers improving drastically from a .648 OPS in 2022 to .858 OPS in 2023, Jeffers cemented himself as the best right-handed hitting catcher in baseball this year. What’s most impressive, and is due credit to his battery-mate behind the plate, Christian Vazquez, is that both these men were healthy all season. And for the first time in a long time, the Twins had to only use two catchers on the active roster all year. The next hurdle for Jeffers is the amount of games played. He still has yet to reach 100 games played in a season in his career, falling just four short of the benchmark this year. However, if the Twins go through with the possibility of trading Vazquez to save on the payroll a bit, there will be nothing to stop him from 100 games in 2024. 12. Brent Rooker The Oakland Athletics did not have many bright spots in a depressing 2023 season. Fortunately, former Twin Brent Rooker was one of those bright spots. Rooker started off the year hot in April, leading the American League with a 1.245 OPS over 22 games. While he cooled off over the next two months, he was still rewarded with the lone all-star selection from the A’s this season. Rooker returned to performing at his All-Star level from April in the final months of the season, reaching the 30 home run mark with a .817 OPS on the season and playing in 137 games. Rooker will likely remain on the Athletics roster as their top power hitter to start 2024. Unless his breakout 2023 season has enticed a team enough to trade for him and bring him to a team that will be in a better place to contend for the 2024 postseason. 13. Akil Baddoo Baddoo kept himself on the Tigers' active roster for most of 2023 playing in 112 games for the runner-up in the American League Central. But Baddoo has not been able to recapture the magic he showed on the diamond during the first half of his rookie year. Baddoo has worked himself into the 4th outfielder role with the Tigers having only 357 plate appearances across those 112 games. His triple slash wasn’t glamorous by any means as he hit .218/.310/.372 with a .682 OPS. He is still a season away from arbitration eligibility and won’t turn 26 until August 16. Time is still favorable for Baddoo to show the success he had when he burst into the majors, but that will also be dependent on who else finds playing time in the Tigers outfield for 2024. 14. Matt Wallner The Forest Lake native fulfilled expectations that were put to him during his brief call-up in 2022. The Twins' reigning Minor League Player of the Year exceeded his rookie status in 2023 and didn’t disappoint in the 76 games he played in. On top of a .249/.370/.507 triple slash and .877 OPS, Wallner quickly became one of the best throwing arms in the outfield per Baseball Savant landing, himself in the 100th percentile in arm strength. Wallner has forged himself into a power-hitting, laser pointer in the outfield that can throw almost any runner out, and it’s a valuable commodity for where the Twins start their outfield in 2024. As fellow Forest Lake native and avid Twins fan Aaron Rupar has said, “Wallner has done some of the coolest things as anyone raised in that town.” Seventy-six games in 2023 was only a sampling of what he can hopefully do in a full season’s worth of games in 2024. 25. Jorge Alcala 2023 looked to be a bounce-back year at the start for Alcala, who missed the majority of last year due to injury. The season did not turn out as many hoped for him, as he once again was limited to 11 games on the year because of injuries. On top of that, he looked rather dreadful across those 11 relief appearances posting a 6.23 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and walked 10 batters in 17.1 innings. He was left off the postseason roster despite seemingly having recovered from injury. Alcala enters his first year of arbitration this offseason. The Twins may consider cutting him loose due to his bad health and poor performance over the last two years. Alcala will be entering his age 28 season, and could still bounce back. Whether that’s in Minnesota or elsewhere remains to be seen. 28. Ben Rortvedt Rortvedt left the Twins alongside Josh Donaldson and Twin-for-a-day Isaiah Kiner-Falefa as a part of the salary dump of Donaldson to New York for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez. Rortvedt was either hurt or in the minors all of 2022, but that finally changed in 2023 as he made his Yankee debut on May 20 this year. Rortvedt was up and down all season with the Yankees and was far from glamorous. He only had a .118 batting average in 79 plate appearances across 32 games. Of course, his calling card is his defense, and that's been on display during his time in the majors. He'll keep working to carve out a niche as a quality backup. 30. Josh Winder After making 11 starts in the majors in 2022, Josh Winder converted into a full-time reliever with the Twins in 2023. Winder’s season had limitations due to injury but appeared in 40 games out of the bullpen between the majors and minors. Winder’s days as a starter are likely over, but he’s still a valuable asset to be in the Twins bullpen as the front office formulates what it’ll look like in 2024. Especially if he can maintain his role as a long reliever. Injured most of season 11. Matt Canterino Unlike the above players, Canterino did not play in the majors this season. In fact, he did not pitch at all as he recovered from a late-season Tommy John surgery he underwent in August of 2022. Given he is the only player from the Twins' Top 30 prospect list in 2020 to miss the entire 2023 season due to injury, he falls into this category for simplicity's sake. Before his Tommy John surgery in 2022, Canterino made a name for himself at Double-A Wichita. He had a 1.83 ERA in 34.1 innings across 11 games and was talked about as potential bullpen reinforcement for the end of the Twins 2022 season. The front office did add him to the 40-man roster last offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. There have been no indications he will lose that spot this off-season which could make him a sleeper name to break into the Twins bullpen next spring training. 17. Nick Gordon Gordon started the season off cold, but he may have been cursed the same day teammate Kyle Farmer was drilled in the jaw. He only accumulated six hits across 21 games from April 12th to May 9th and just as he seemed to recover from a bad month at the plate, he broke his tibia in a game against the Dodgers on May 17th. The fracture left Gordon on the injured list for the remainder of the season, with other players such as Farmer, Edouard Julien, and Willi Castro stepping up in roles he often filled in 2022. Now, Gordon’s future with the Twins is up in the air. The Twins may not re-sign him through arbitration this season, and it’s more likely than not he won’t be a part of the team in 2024. 22. Jose Miranda It’s easy to say Miranda had the most disappointing 2023 season out of any Twin. The expectations were high coming off a breakout rookie season, but he fell short of them from the start. A shoulder injury in spring training kept him from playing in the World Baseball Classic, but the effects of that injury lingered into the start of the season. Miranda’s power at the plate was all but zapped away as he was homerless through the first 24 games of the season, before finally getting his first two of the year against the Yankees on April 26th in a 12-6 loss. That two-homer game was the high point of his season as he continued to decline in his performance at the plate, never having his batting average above .240 from that day on. Miranda was optioned down to St. Paul to fix his swing on May 10, and even after Lewis pulled his hamstring and landed on the IL, Miranda wouldn’t last more than five games before reinjuring his shoulder and effectively ending his season. Miranda’s future role with the Twins has more questions than answers. He’s fallen behind Lewis at third base on the depth chart, but could still work as the right-handed hitting side of a first base platoon with Kirilloff. Played in 2023, mostly in the Minors or Indy Ball 4. Jordan Balazovic Balazovic’s longevity with the Twins was tittering on the edge to start the 2023 season. Between a spring training scuffle that left him with a broken jaw, and a bullpen role with the Saints that wasn’t faring much better than his 2022 struggles, Balazovic looked as though he might be let go by the team in mid-June. Then the bullpen had too many injuries to count and he was the last man available in the pecking order of the 40-man roster options. His call-up to the majors turned out to be his saving grace. Balazovic didn’t give up a run in 5 innings over his first three career appearances. He had an even more impressive stretch that followed into July over 12 relief appearances, with only one outing in that stretch where he surrendered more than one run. But he ended the year on a sour note and his future with the organization is very much in doubt. 7. Keoni Cavaco The Twins top draft pick from 2019 missed out on what would've been his first pro season in 2020 and never seemed to recover. He hasn't produced at any level since. Cavaco spent the majority of last season with the Cedar Rapids Kernels. He barely hit above the Mendoza line with his batting average at .203 and had an OPS of .574 across 238 plate appearances in 63 games. Cavaco will not be turning 23 until June 2, 2024, but the young infielder will be growing old for the age group at High A. He needs emerge and break out in a big way. 9. Blayne Enlow Enlow spent the first two months of the season at Double A Wichita and had a dominant stretch posting a 3.17 ERA across 54 innings in 10 starts. Those numbers earned him a call-up to the St. Paul Saints in mid-June, and the effects of Triple-A hitting showed against his stuff. Enlow had a 7.94 ERA in 45.1 innings across 15 outings as a starter and reliever for the Saints. His struggles during his first month and a half with the Saints were bad enough to keep his numbers inflated as he improved over the last two months of the season with the Saints. Enlow still has a good opportunity to turn himself around in the early months of the 2024 season with St. Paul to make himself available as a bullpen call-up option to make his MLB debut with the Twins in 2024. 15. Gilberto Celestino Celestino may have spent a few days on the Twins active roster in 2023, but he never appeared in a game. All of his playing time came in St. Paul this year, and even that was limited to 59 games. His numbers at the plate weren’t as eye-popping as his defense still proved to be. Celestino posted a .244/.385/.386 triple slash with a .771 OPS in 245 plate appearances. The rushed development of Celestino during the center fielder shortage of 2021 proved costly to his hitting abilities. And with Castro filling in as the primary backup centerfielder to Michael A. Taylor, his role with the team doesn’t seem to be necessary anymore going into 2024. 16. Edwar Colina Colina made his MLB debut with the Twins in 2020 but hasn’t appeared in the majors since then. He was in the Rangers organization for all of 2023 pitching at Triple-A Round Rock. This marked his first season in professional baseball since his 2023 debut, and he struggled a bit after a two-year absence. Colina had a 4.65 ERA in 31 innings across 26 relief appearances. His most concerning aspect of his return was lack of command as he had 20 walks to 30 strikeouts adding up to a 1.5 K to BB ratio. Colina is in the Venezuelan League this Winter to refine his command and hope for a better outcome in 2024. 18. Travis Blankenhorn Blankenhorn has become a journeyman minor leaguer since the Twins released him in early 2021. This season was spent in the Nationals organization for Blankenhorn and he didn’t disappoint for the Rochester Red Wings posting a .262/.360/.517 triple slash and .877 OPS in 455 plate appearances across 108 games with them. He earned himself a roster expansion call-up in September and played in 10 games with the Nats, but only had a .161 batting average in 37 plate appearances. 19. Cole Sands Sands's greatest achievement in 2023 may have been the amount of MLB service time accumulated compared to amount of pitches thrown with the Twins. Sands pitched a total of 34 games between the Saints and Twins in 2023. His 19 games with the Saints were some of the most impressive from any pitcher on their roster in 2023 as he posted a 1.47 ERA in 30.2 innings of work. His numbers in his 15 games with the Twins weren’t exactly the same, but they still were an improvement from 2022 as he had a 3.74 ERA in 21.2 innings of work with Minnesota this year. 20. Will Holland Holland has never had a full season of success in the minor leagues since being drafted in the fifth round of the 2019 draft by the Twins. 2023 played out similarly to other seasons. He spent the whole season at Wichita and played in 101 games, but his offensive output was poor as he had a .197/.300/.306 with a .606 OPS. Holland has defensive versatility to play multiple positions on the field, but his offensive output at Double-A doesn’t show any signs of a promotion to Triple-A anytime soon. 21. Misael Urbina Urbina had his first full season up at High A but his performance there wasn’t all too impressive. Across 102 games, Urbina had a .180/.289/.282 triple slash with a .571 OPS across 412 plate appearances. Urbina’s development, like many others, saw drawbacks from the lost 2020 minor league season, and that still carried over into 2023 as he reached his highest level of pro ball yet. Urbina turns 22 in April next year with time still on his side but that window is closing on what he can do at higher levels if he doesn’t have a massive turnaround. 24. Yunior Severino No other minor leaguer hit more home runs across all levels in 2023 than Yunior Severino. His 35 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A powered him to an OPS just short of .900, at .898 on the season. Severino still isn’t a top-notch defensive player as he continued to shuffle around the infield playing all positions but shortstop. With the lack of a defensive home and being eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, there’s no certainty that he’ll remain in the organization for 2024. 26. Emmanuel Rodriguez He was signed as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2019, but COVID-19 delayed his first professional season until 2021. In 2023 Rodriguez felt some of the highest highs and lowest lows of his pro career so far. He enjoyed a sky-high walk rate and flashed big power while continuing to play an exceptional center field. At the same time, he continued striking out at a high rate with a lot of swing and miss in his game. Outside of Brooks Lee and Walker Jenkins, Rodriguez is the most exciting prospect in the Twins system. A strong performance in the Midwest League Championship Series has set him up well to start his 2024 season at Double-A Wichita. 29. Chris Vallimont Chirs Vallimont was claimed off waivers from the Twins by the Orioles in May of 2022. Over a year later, he made his MLB debut with the Birds on July 3. But that sole relief appearance where he only faced three batters would be his only action in the majors this year. Vallimont's contract was purchased by the Cleveland Guardians just three days later. He spent the remainder of the 2023 season at Triple-A Columbus throwing out of the Clippers bullpen. In 16 outings, he had an unimpressive 6.52 ERA in 29 innings. Out of professional baseball entirely 8. Wander Javier Javier once looked to be the next coming of Jorge Polanco, but that all dissipated as his performance stagnated and failed to elevate over several seasons. Javier had a minor league deal with the San Diego Padres in spring training but decided to retire from the game in March before the season even began. 10. Lewis Thorpe Thorpe threw his last pitch in the Twins organization on a cold Saturday afternoon on April 16th, 2022. During a comeback attempt with Independent League Kansas City Monarchs, he posted a 4.96 ERA in 81.2 innings across 16 starts, Thorpe then decided to return to his home country of Australia. The Australian Baseball League begins its 2023-24 season on November 16th, and Thorpe has found himself on the minor-league roster of his hometown Melbourne Aces. While his career in the majors may be over, he looks to continue it in the land down under. 23. Dakota Chalmers Chalmers spent time between the Dodgers organization and Independent Baseball in 2022. But his name was nowhere to be found in pro ball for the entire 2023 season. 27. Gabriel Maciel Maciel spent his 2022 season with the Oakland A’s High A affiliate. He elected free agency at season’s end and hasn’t been heard from since. Totals: 11 players on Active MLB rosters 3 players who could be on Active Rosters but are hurt 13 players who are in the Minors, Japan, or Indy Ball 4 players completely out of baseball The outcome from these top 30 MLB Pipeline prospects in 2020 just three years later is a strong showing for the franchise. One-third of the players ended their seasons in the majors, and half of them could find realistically themselves there in 2024. What’s most impressive is that the top six players (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Balazovic, Duran, and Jeffers), all had some form of consistent playing time with the Twins this season. Rarely does a team’s former top five or six prospects earn those opportunities all at the same time, and all have a chance to do so again in 2024.

Matt Canterino’s nasty stuff has been advertised to fans since he was drafted in the second round in 2019. The former Rice pitcher threw many collegiate innings, and it’s possible this finally caught up to him in 2022. Could Canterino transition to a bullpen role and impact the 2024 Twins? The concept of taking Canterino out of a starting role is difficult to imagine, given his repertoire and the success it’s brought him in the minor leagues. With a mid-90s fastball and formidable slider and changeup, he has everything he needs to carve through opposing lineups. He’s struck out well over one-third of the hitters he’s faced in the minor leagues and made it as far as Double-A. What sense does it make then to move Canterino out of a starting job? The concern at this point has to be creating an innings floor for Canterino. His career high in innings for a given year was the 37 he threw in 2022 before requiring elbow surgery. While the hope is that this has finally fixed the problems that have kept him off the field, his workload must be managed carefully. It’s hard to say where his innings limit will be, but it’s possibly well under 100 to ensure he’s healthy moving forward. The problem here is that even if the Twins' eyes are on a 2025 debut for Canterino in the rotation, his inning cap – even if all goes well – is likely only over 100 innings. No matter how effective he is, he wouldn’t be available for the entire season. That’s also assuming he stays healthy for an entire season for the first time in his professional career. The Twins could look to play the long game in pursuit of the top-tier starting pitcher Canterino could become, but the issue is that he’ll already be 26 years old in 2024. Next year will mark five years since Canterino was drafted, and it may be time for the Twins to rush him to the majors to help the big league club. We saw this play out most recently with Jhoan Duran. The Twins saw his numbers and raw stuff and determined they were better off letting him impact the MLB club rather than continuing to gamble on everything breaking the right way in the minor leagues. While Canterino doesn’t throw 104 with a 98 mph splitter, he could have a significant impact in a bullpen role. For how dominant he was in the minor leagues as a starting pitcher, it’s easy to see Canterino taking a bullpen role and running with it. More velocity on the fastball and being able to focus on the best possible pitch for each hitter rather than trying to mix things up for another trip through the lineup could make him another bullpen monster. It’s also a role that some scouts thought he would eventually settle into when drafted. Aside from his raw stuff, the funky delivery adds another element that would undoubtedly play up in short stints. It’s unclear what the Twins have in mind with Matt Canterino headed into 2024, but they may have seen enough talent from him that they’re confident he can get MLB hitters out once he shakes off some rust next season. The quickest way for him to be a contributor would be a shift to the bullpen, where the Twins rarely invest in the trade and free-agent market. Could Matt Canterino make the bullpen transition in 2024?

Louie Varland even making the big leagues is a feat in and of itself - the former Concordia-St. Paul Golden Bears pitcher was a 15th-round pick in 2019. That’s relatively rarefied air to make something out of yourself at the highest level, but if you’ve followed along, his desire to be great isn’t normal either. Last season, Varland appeared in the big leagues to pitch a game for the Twins against the New York Yankees in the Bronx. At just 24 years old and barely removed from pitching for a Division II college, he was in The Show. Posting a 3.81 ERA across five starts last season, Varland looked the part of a major league pitcher. This season, Minnesota acquired depth that would allow them to trend toward a divisional crown. They traded for Pablo Lopez to front the rotation, pushing Bailey Ober out and into Triple-A. This maneuvering also meant that Varland had slid one more rung down the depth chart. And having one of the best pitching rotations in franchise history resulted in Varland starting just ten games with the Twins in his second major league season. Wanting to bolster the bullpen for a postseason run, Varland was told to focus on letting it fly at Triple-A. He would work his way back alongside veteran starter Chris Paddack, and the bullpen was the ticket for each of them. Without needing to focus on energy conservation, Varland could air out his two-pitch mix in short burst stints (he reached 100.1 mph in his first relief appearance with the Saints in September). Debuting as a reliever with the Twins on September 6, he worked 12 innings across seven outings. He allowed only six hits and a pair of runs (both on solo homers) and posted a ridiculous 17/1 K/BB. Not only had he emerged as a bullpen arm for Rocco Baldelli, but he looked the part of an absolute weapon. As a starter, Varland had shown an ability to get outs while doing so as a fourth or fifth option in the rotation. When coming out of the bullpen, he had dialed the fastball up to triple-digits while routinely sitting around 98 mph (his fastball velocity averaged 94.6 mph in July while bumping to 97.5 mph in September). The velocity uptick was notable, but he also brandished an improved cutter, a pitch that could get in on the hands of the opposition. Before Varland agreed on the bullpen plan, he talked with Minnesota’s leadership, expressing a desire to remain a starter. "I believe the best version of myself is a starter," Varland told reporters in September. "Starters also get paid. I want to stay a starters as long as I can." Pitching out of the rotation is something the St. Paul native has always done, and it’s the same role he has worked to elevate himself to in the big leagues. Money and glory come while working every fifth day, and his preparation has been geared towards that for years. But his outstanding performance in relief late last year might be too good to ignore - and too tempting for the Twins to pass up. Speaking on the matter during a recent Gleeman and the Geek podcast, Aaron Gleeman noted just how special Baldelli believes Varland can be in relief. Convincing Varland of the same has to be part of the process for Baldelli and the Twins. Working in the bullpen after initially being a starter isn’t something new. Jhoan Duran was a starting prospect before dialing it up to 103 mph and emerging as the Twins closer. Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and plenty of other names have moved to the bullpen after experiencing life in the rotation. The bullpen is no longer banishment for less talented arms, it is a place where special talent can thrive. Over the offseason, Varland will continue operating with a plan that has him returning as a starter. He’ll eventually have conversations with multiple people involved for Minnesota, and his future role may not be decided for some time. We are likely a ways from seeing how this ultimately plays out, but adding another lockdown leverage arm to a stable with Duran and Griffin Jax seems like a come-up for the Twins. The Twins have witnessed what Varland can provide in relief, though, and that might be too hard to ignore.

When contemplating a long-term, life-altering extension with a ballplayer, many factors must come into play. We will discuss a few of them below before jumping into my thoughts on what such a contract might look like for Jhoan Duran. You can also watch the short video that @Nash Walker put together with his ideas about a Duran extension. Background Jhoan Duran has two full seasons in the big leagues and has been remarkably dominant in both seasons. What’s even more remarkable is what he is doing when you consider what he went through in the seasons leading up to his 2022 debut. Duran came to the Twins organization in a July 2018 trade deadline deal that sent infielder Eduardo Escobar to the Diamondbacks. Just days after the trade, he joined the Low-A Cedar Rapids Kernels. The right-hander struck out eight batters in seven scoreless, no-hit innings in his first start. He had another start with nine strikeouts in seven innings of one-run ball. He followed that start with 10 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings of one-hit ball and gave up only an unearned run. While few Twins fans had heard the name Jhoan Duran before the trade, he made a solid first impression in the organization. He began the 2019 season with High-A Fort Myers. He made 15 starts and one relief appearance. While he went 2-9, he posted just a 3.23 ERA over 78 innings. He had 95 strikeouts as well. He ended the season going 3-3 over seven starts with Double-A Pensacola. Following the season, the Twins added him to the 40-man roster. Injury Risk Unfortunately, he did not pitch in games in 2020 due to the cancellation of the minor league season because of Covid. He was having elbow and forearm pain during the spring of 2021. His debut with the St. Paul Saints featured six strikeouts in three innings in late May. He followed that with eight strikeouts in four one-hit, scoreless innings. He was hitting triple digits with regularity at CHS Field. When the calendar turned to June, he started to struggle. Three runs on three hits and five walks over four innings. Three runs on six hits and two walks in 4 1/3 innings. And then, on June 15th, he recorded just two outs and gave up two runs on two hits and three walks. He was immediately shut down and spent the rest of the season rehabbing. He never did have elbow surgery. In 2022, he went to spring training with many questions surrounding him. But he pitched very well in his outings, dominating enough to make the Opening Day roster. As you would expect, the Twins were very patient with Duran. He didn’t pitch in back-to-back games. If he pitched two innings, he would get two days off, at least. And as the season went on, it was increasingly clear that he was the team’s best bullpen arm. It didn’t take long for him to start working in high-leverage situations. In 2023, the 25-year-old should have been an All-Star but didn’t get selected inexplicably. His ERA was slightly higher (2.45 after 1.86), and his WHIP jumped from 0.98 to 1.14 this year. His strikeout rate rose a little, from 11.8 K/9 to 12.1 K/9. However, his walk rate jumped from 2.1 BB/9 to 3.6 BB/9. That was the issue at times, yet he continued to be one of the most dominant relievers in the game. His fWAR as a rookie was 1.5. In 2023, he was at 1.0 fWAR. Research suggests that higher velocity could play a role in pitcher injuries, and Duran certainly does not lack that. He throws a 104 mph four-seamer, a splinker at 98-to-100 mph, and one might argue that his best pitch is his incredibly sharp upper-80s curveball. His arsenal will be a concern for opposing hitters and potentially doctors who work on arms. Watch Nash's video Before you continue, take two minutes and watch Nash’s video on a Duran contract extension so you can compare it to what I show below. Jhoan Duran has exactly 2.000 years of service time. Assuming he doesn’t ever use his final option, he will be arbitration-eligible for the first time following the 2024 season. If he goes year-to-year, Duran will have three years of arbitration before becoming a free agent following the 2027 season. In other words, the Twins already have his rights for the next four seasons, and he will be a free agent heading into his age-30 season. Renewed In my mind, this is a topic that hasn’t been addressed. And truthfully, I don’t know if it is a big deal. With the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, the minimum salary went from $700,000 in 2022 to $720,000 in 2023. In 2024, it will be $740,000. For pre-arbitration players, they typically get small bumps in pay each season. For example, Ronny Henriquez had 18 days of service time in 2022. According to Cot’s Contracts, he would have made $720,900 had he spent the entire 2023 season in the big leagues. With 73 days of service time coming into the season, Josh Winder would have made $725,650 in 2023. Jhoan Duran had precisely one year of service time coming into 2023. Two players were reasonably close to that timeline. Jose Miranda entered 2023 with 157 days of service time (180 days equals one year). He was set to make $727,850. Joe Ryan entered 2023 with 1.033 years (one year, 33 days) of service time. In 2023, he made $730,250. Considering those two numbers, it’s fair to suggest that Duran should have made around $729,000 in 2023. However, if unable to reach an agreement on a 2023 contract, teams can “renew” a contract at the previous year’s value. That happened with Duran, as his salary bumped from the 2022 league minimum of $700,000 to the 2023 league minimum of $720,000. So what? He should have made $9,000 more than he did this year. Who cares? Right? Does that mean the two sides disagreed over what couldn’t have been more than a couple thousand dollars? Does it mean they were working on a long-term deal last offseason, and it didn’t happen? Does it mean things were contentious between Duran and his representatives and the Twins brass? Probably not. With MLB allocating $50 million for pre-arbitration players, Duran should have made well over $9,000 of that chunk. It's probably much ado about nothing, but it could be something to watch later in the offseason. Contract Details The Twins would want to extend a player to save money down the road and buy out some years of free agency. A player might be willing to give up some long-term dollars to get the guaranteed money in case of injury or lack of sustained production. As Nash mentioned in his video, the most similar extension might be the five-year, $20 million extension that Emmanuel Clase reached with the Guardians a couple of years ago. It comes with a couple of option years as well. Along with throwing hard, Clase already has an 80-game PED suspension, which likely creates some risk. Josh Hader has gone year-to-year in arbitration. He had four years of arbitration and earned $4.1 million in 2020, $6.675 million in 2021, $11 million in 2022, and this season, he pitched for $14.1 million. He will become a free agent in a couple of weeks, and it will be interesting to see what kind of deal he gets. So, here is my proposal: In summary, this contract would cover five years, and $33 million would be guaranteed. It also includes two option years. It includes a $1.5 million signing bonus. The $2.5 million in 2024 is over three times more than he would make on a one-year, pre-arbitration contract. This contract would buy out his final pre-arbitration season, three years of arbitration, and one free-agent season. And, as you can see, it includes up to two more free-agent seasons and could be worth up to seven years and $56 million. So, what do you think? Is this a contract you would feel comfortable with the Twins and Duran agreeing to? What would be your biggest concerns about the deal? How do you feel about extending a reliever with some elbow issues in his past? Leave your thoughts below. For much more Twins Daily content on Jhoan Duran, click here.

Box Score Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan, 2.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (26 pitches, 18 strikes, 69.2%) Home Runs: Royce Lewis (4), Edouard Julien (1) Bottom 3 WPA: Jorge Polanco (-.240), Caleb Thielbar (-.202), Max Kepler (-.117) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Teams exchange solo shots, Ryan gets pulled early The Twins were doomed on Tuesday afternoon after a poor first inning that saw Sonny Gray give up four runs, and Minnesota was unable to bounce back. This time, though, things looked completely different in the early going as Joe Ryan breezed through the top of the first on only ten pitches. Most fans and pundits wanted the Twins not to throw a pitch to Yordan Álvarez in this series anymore, but Ryan had no trouble getting him to fly out to end the inning. The offense was also in business early. Édouard Julien led off the home first with a long double to center. It was of no use, though, as Jorge Polanco hit a very soft liner directly at Jeremy Peña, who was able to tag out Julien quickly for a double play. Despite such a deflating play, the Twins didn’t come out empty-handed. In the following at-bat, Royce Lewis took José Urquidy deep for a line-drive home run to left to make it 1-0 Twins. That was Lewis’ fourth home run this postseason, and he’s now tied with Kirby Puckett for most home runs in a single postseason in franchise history (1991). At four home runs, Lewis is also tied with Greg Gagne for second-most homers all-time in franchise postseason history, behind only Puckett, with five. Ryan looked sharp again in the top of the second, recording two quick outs on only seven pitches. He got a first-pitch strike against Michael Brantley next, but on the very next pitch, Brantley tied the game with a solo home run to deep center. Chas McCormick singled next, but Ryan took care of Peña to end the inning. That’s when things took an unexpected turn. In a surprising move, Rocco Baldelli pulled Ryan from the game after two innings and only 26 pitches. Houston takes the lead with another home run Brock Stewart came in relief of Ryan in the third and took care of business with a 1-2-3 inning on 12 pitches. With the offense going 0-for-7 with a walk after the Lewis home run, the Twins brought lefty Caleb Thielbar in the fourth to face the southpaw trio within the heart of the Astros lineup. He managed to limit Álvarez to a single and struck out Kyle Tucker next. But when righty José Abreu stepped up to the plate, he clobbered an opposite-field two-run shot for his third home run in two days, making it 3-1 Astros. Chris Paddack took over to get the final out of the fourth, and he went on to toss a flawless 1-2-3 fifth with ease, with a pair of punch outs. While Urquidy continued to make Twins hitters look silly by retiring seven in a row, Paddack looked just as brilliant in the sixth with another 1-2-3 effort, this time against hitters three to five. That included a strikeout against Álvarez. Fans might allow themselves to feel very excited about Paddack’s presence in the Twins rotation next year. Twins get one back, get Urquidy out of the game Urquidy made it eight consecutive batters retired when he got Michael A. Taylor to ground out to open the sixth. But his night was about to be over. Julien got his second hit of the night, a solo home run to left, snapping a collective 0-for-14 for the Twins offense since the first inning and cutting Houston’s lead to only one run. Jorge Polanco flied out next, but not before fighting for seven pitches and hitting a bullet (100.7 mph) to deep center. Dusty Baker brought in Hector Neris to try to get the inning’s final out, but Lewis worked a six-pitch walk to keep the Twins rally going. Max Kepler came to the plate representing the go-ahead run, and he got ahead of Neris in the count, 2-0. But the Astros reliever settled down and, with a big help from home plate umpire Jansen Visconti, got Kepler to “strike out”, ending the inning. It’s all about the bullpens, and the Astros hold on Griffin Jax came in to pitch the seventh, and he retired the side, making it ten consecutive Houston batters retired in a row. Had the offense been able to make some noise in the home half, the Twins could get some momentum going. But Neris did a tremendous job tossing a 1-2-3 inning. Then, Jhoan Durán was brought in for the eighth, and he also kept the Twins’ chances alive with a scoreless frame, making it 13 consecutive Astros retired. Target Field got loud in the bottom of the eighth when Byron Buxton walked up to the on-deck circle. Donovan Solano struck out to open the inning, and Buxton had the chance to tie the game next. His at-bat, however, was short-lived. He took the first two pitches for an even count but swung on the third one to pop out to shallow right. Julien struck out next to end the inning, making it seven consecutive Twins batters retired. With the Twins season on the line, Durán needed to put up another zero in the top of the ninth. He handed Álvarez his second strikeout of the night on three pitches, then got Tucker to ground out, taking it to the bag himself. After an Abreu single, Brantley jumped on the first pitch for an easy lineout to center. It was up to Polanco, Lewis, and Kepler against former Twin Ryan Pressly to save Minnesota’s season in the bottom of the ninth. Each of them worked full counts against Pressly, but he didn’t crack, and all three ended up being struck out. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Maeda 43 0 0 25 0 68 Paddack 19 0 0 0 29 48 Ober 0 0 0 38 0 38 Thielbar 18 0 0 0 17 35 Stewart 0 22 0 0 12 34 Durán 0 7 0 0 23 30 Pagán 14 0 0 14 0 28 Jax 0 0 0 9 18 27 Varland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Pablo Lopez - 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K (105 Pitches, 69 Strikes, 66%) Home Runs: Kyle Farmer (1) Top WPA: Lopez (.261), Carlos Correa (.192), Kyle Farmer (.118) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The Twins came into Sunday evening's matchup with the defending World Series Champion Astros looking to end the next steak: a nine-game road playoff losing skid dating back to 2004 at Yankee Stadium. The right man for the job was on the mound in streak-breaker Pablo Lopez. The Twins' resurgent offensive attack against left-handed pitching was locked and loaded, with Carlos Correa feasting on lefties in his post-season career (.937 OPS career) Kyle Farmer (1.240 OPS against lefties over the past 20 games) in particular licking their chops with Framber Valdez on the mound for the Astros Cashing In Early...and Often! The crowd at Minute Maid Park was looking to get rocking yet again Sunday night, but due to an MLB decision the roof was open and there would be no resonating echoes this evening. If that didn't dampen the crowd's excitement, the Twins offense soon did. Valdez was all over the zone to start the top of the first inning, and Donovan Solano and Royce Lewis couldn't make solid contact. Luckily Jorge Polanco let Valdez's wildness garner him a walk, and Carlos Correa sat on a curveball to give the Twins their first lead of the series at 1-0. In Game 1, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez controlled the game offensively. Tonight, Pablo Lopez took the early lead and endured a first inning that featured a lead-off bunt single by Jose Altuve and a "I thought it was gone!" fly out to right field by Yordan Alvarez. After one inning it was still 1-0 Twins. In the top of the second inning, Willi Castro ripped a single up the middle under the legs of Valdez. With the speedy Castro at first, Valdez should have paid more attention to the batter in the box, Kyle Farmer. Farmer took a first pitch sinker that didn't sink, and launched it up where fielders don't exist for a 2-run shot! 3-0 Twins! Things Settle Down, and Quiet Down Both starting pitchers won their battles in the third and fourth innings. Brilliant defense from Jeremy Pena snuffed out a potential Polanco hit, and a slick double play by Farmer and the Twins helped to keep the respective offenses at bay in the third. The Astros drew a walk and got a two-out single from Michael Brantley in the fourth to get runners at the corners and Chas McCormick up as the tying run. After getting squeezed on the strike zone throughout the inning. Lopez decided that a swinging strike three would be indisputable. Time to Blow This Game Wide Open The top of the fifth inning started with Valdez pitching to Michael A. Taylor. After he blooped his way to first base, Solano went opposite field for another single. Polanco dropped a bunt to advance the ducks on the pond, and Royce Lewis walked to load the bases with one out. Correa came to the plate with a chance to exorcise a season's worth of bases-loaded demons. And he delivered! That two-run single chased Valdez from the game, and the Astros brought in right-hander Phil Maton. On Maton's first pitch, Ryan Jeffers attempted a safety squeeze bunt. The curveball caused Jeffers to pull the bunt, Lewis was caught off third base in no man's land, and Twins Territory freaked out with every twist and turn that he took as he attempted to elude the pickle of his own making. Lewis got tagged out at home, appeared to stave off more injury to insult, and the Twins failed to score again as Farmer missed that same curveball for a swinging strike out on a full count with the bases loaded. Hopefully cashing in a few runs, but not all of the runs, wouldn't come back to bite the Twins. The Astros Have a Good Shortstop Too, but it's Pablo Day The reason the Astros allowed Correa to walk into free agency last season has a name and it's World Series MVP Jeremy Pena. Pena led off the bottom of the fifth inning with a rocket off of the top of the wall in left-center for a double. Lopez found great joy in the fact that Martin Maldonado was up next, and he retired him without allowing Pena to advance. Altuve popped up weakly to Polanco at second, and Alex Bregman swung and missed to send a pumped Pablo and the Twins into the late innings. In fact, Lopez took his shutout through seven full innings, silencing the most potent offense since the All-Star break and setting up the Twins for victory. Lewis Flies, Correa Rakes, and the Twins Add Runs No lead feels safe in Houston, and the Twins didn't let off the gas or the pinch-hitting pressure in the late innings. Correa continued to clobber the ball, driving another shot off of the wall to move Lewis to third with a double in the top of the seventh inning. After Jeffers took one for the team, Castro struck out looking at what he and most of the Twins dugout considered to be a ball. With two outs, Edouard Julien pinch hit for Farmer, and the rookie delivered with a single to right which plated Lewis, but got Correa caught out at home on a laser throw from Kyle Tucker. 6-0 Twins. Time to Bring this Series Home The Twins players and coaching staff stated over and over how much the Target Field environment helped lead them to victory in the Wild Card round. Heading home tied 1-1 in the ALDS was the goal, and it was up to Brock Stewart to take care of business in the eighth. Unfortunately for Stewart, Alvarez is a beast, and he delivered a two-run opposite-field home run to tighten the score to 6-2. This forced Rocco Baldelli's hand in the ninth, and he put in Jhoan Duran to leave no doubt that the Twins would leave Houston victorious. 1, 2, 3, ballgame. Twins Win! They head back to Target Field with a chance to win the series at home, and *Twins Territory plans to do their best to make it so. What's Next Game 3 pits Twins RHP Sonny Gray (1-0, 0.00 ERA) against Astros RHP Cristian Javier (0-0, 0.00; 10-5, 4.56 ERA in regular season). First pitch is scheduled for 3:07pm CDT for the next greatest sporting event in Twins history. Postgame: Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Maeda 0 0 0 43 0 43 Stewart 13 0 0 0 22 35 Thielbar 4 0 0 18 0 22 Durán 13 0 0 0 7 20 Paddack 0 0 0 19 0 19 Varland 17 0 0 0 0 17 Jax 15 0 0 0 0 15 Pagán 0 0 0 14 0 14 Funderburk 0 0 0 0 0 0

Pitching has been a question mark for the Twins seemingly forever. After showing what looked to be a Top 5 staff in baseball in the first half, they came back down to earth after the All-Star break after injuries and a bit of regression hit. With a few pieces missing and a lack of deadline moves, the Twins hinged on several players returning in good health at he top of their game, and through the first round of the playoffs, it looks like the bet paid off in a big way. While the Blue Jays offense is far from a juggernaut, they were comfortably a lineup in the top half of the league ranking 11th in OPS at .745. In two games against this lineup, the Twins pitching staff was utterly dominant. The pairing of Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray was predictably formidable, but the bullpen is where the Twins' stable of arms really answered a lot of necessary questions. The Twins leaned on their bullpen for 7 1/3 innings, allowing just five hits, one walk, and striking out 10. Perhaps more impressive than the pitching lines was how dominant each arm looked when called upon. It goes without saying, this is a bullpen unlike any we’ve ever witnessed in Twins territory. For years it seems Twins fans have watched opposing postseason-caliber bullpens be called upon with a stable of arms capable of approaching triple digits, wondering how this was even possible. Those days are now over. From Brock Stewart and Louie Varland to Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran, the Twins' postseason bullpen looks every bit the part. It seems just yesterday that the Twins' main targets were soft-tossing, pitch-to-contact, ground ball specialists. Skipping ahead to 2023, the Twins reliever with the lowest average fastball velocity to appear in either game was Caleb Thielbar averaging 93.8 in Game 2. This isn’t the mid-2000s Twins anymore. Beyond the pitchers who dominated in the first round, the Twins have yet to turn to other pitchers who have dominated to varying degrees such as Chris Paddack, Kody Funderburk, and Emilio Pagán, each of whom we’ll likely see at some point against Houston in the coming days. The playoffs are random, but the Twins have the tools to compete in an atmosphere so often dominated by pitching staffs. With two legitimate top-of-the-rotation options to lead what is finally a dominant, high-octane bullpen, fans should have a reason to believe that the Twins are legitimate contenders to go on a run for a few weeks, which is all it takes in the postseason. There are no assurances in October, but the Twins have put together a pitching staff worthy of hanging our hopes on. Regardless of where the season goes from here, it’s worth celebrating. It’s time for Twins fans to sit back and enjoy the smoke being thrown on a daily basis.

Minnesota has been striving to build a competitive pitching staff since the current front office regime took the reins. There have been plenty of bumps along the way, but the Twins were able to compile one of baseball's best-starting staffs this season with depth in the rotation and bullpen. Below are the results of the voting from 18 writers at Twins Daily. Each writer ranked their top five pitchers, and the results are below. Some writers likely debated who should be the team's top pitcher, but there was a clear winner after tallying the votes. 5. Bailey Ober Ober was one of the Twins' most consistent pitchers throughout the 2023 season, and he might have finished higher on this list if he was at Triple-A to start the year. In 26 starts (144 1/3 IP), he posted a 3.43 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and a 146-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He upped his changeup usage from 15.6% last season to 28.0% in 2023, and batters OPS against the pitch dropped by 100 points. Ober pitched a career-high in innings and has established himself as a middle-of-the-order rotation option for the foreseeable future. 4. Joe Ryan Overall, Ryan's sophomore season didn't compare ideally with his rookie campaign. However, his numbers are slightly skewed because he attempted to pitch through a groin injury in the middle of the season. In 15 starts before his injury, he posted a 2.98 ERA and held opponents to a .548 OPS. He set a career-high with 11.0 K/9 by mixing in an improved split-finger and sweeper over 38% of the time. His sweeper generated the highest Whiff % (32.3%) and Put Away % (19.0%). Ryan will be expected to take on an even more critical role in the Twins rotation next season. 3. Jhoan Duran First Place Votes: 1 Last season, Duran won the TD Best Pitcher award after a tremendous rookie season. It's never a good sign when a reliever wins the team's best pitcher award because that likely means the team's starters are struggling. In 59 appearances (62 1/3 IP), Duran posted a 2.45 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an 84-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Duran pitched in 47 of the team's 87 wins, with the club going 47-12 in games where he appeared this season. He threw the most pitches over 100+ during the 2023 season and leads baseball in pitches over 100+ over the last two seasons. The Twins bullpen would look very different without Duran as the closer. 2. Pablo Lopez First Place Votes: 4 Lopez was among the league's best during his first season with the Twins. He finished in the top five among AL pitchers in strikeouts, quality starts, WAR, and innings pitched. His 234 strikeouts were the most by a Twins pitcher since Johan Santana, Lopez's boyhood idol, struck out 235 in 2007. His 10.86 K/9 ratio in 2023 was the highest single-season ratio in Twins history among qualified pitchers. Lopez added a sweeper after joining the Twins and threw it over 20% of the time. Opponents posted a .287 SLG against his sweeper while generating a 36.6 Whiff%. He will likely get some down ballot votes for the AL Cy Young and was critical to the team's success during the current season. 1. Sonny Gray First Place Votes: 13 Like Lopez, Gray compiled career-best numbers at the top of the Twins' rotation. In 32 starts, he posted a 2.79 ERA (2nd in the AL) with a 1.15 WHIP and a 183-to-55 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His 2.83 FIP, 0.4 HR/9, opponent SLG, and WAR were the top totals among qualified AL starters. Gray finished the season with the lowest ERA by a Twins starter (minimum 20 GS) since Johan Santana in 2006. Gray limited right-handed hitters to a .220 BA, while lefties BA was 13 points higher. He remained relatively healthy during the 2023 season compared to other seasons and compiled his highest inning total since 2015. Sweepers were the most trendy pitch across baseball in 2023, and Gray changed his pitch usage. During the 2022 season, he used his sweeper 10.3% of the time and increased its usage by over 10% during the current campaign. Opposing batters posted a .094 BA against his sweeper with a .118 SLG. Gerrit Cole is a lock to win the AL Cy Young, but Gray should receive top five votes on many ballots. He's headed to free agency at the perfect time and should be able to cash in on a lucrative long-term deal. Do you agree with the way the results of the writer's voting? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Final Voting Points Tally Sonny Gray: 85 points Pablo Lopez: 75 points Jhoan Duran: 45 points Joe Ryan: 28 points Bailey Ober: 19 points Recent TD Best Pitcher Winners 2022: Jhoan Duran 2021: Jose Berrios 2020: Kenta Maeda 2019: Taylor Rogers

Box Score Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray, 5.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K (85 pitches, 53 strikes, 64.7%) Home Runs: none Top 3 WPA: Sonny Gray (.274), Caleb Thielbar (.124), Donovan Solano (.091) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) A day after snapping the longest playoff losing streak in North American sports history, the Minnesota Twins were looking to make history once more. If they defeated the Toronto Blue Jays at Target Field this afternoon, they would win their first postseason series since 2002, when they beat the Oakland Athletics in game five of the American League Division Series. Standing in their way today was former Twin and fan favorite José Berríos. “La Makina” never got the chance to start for Minnesota in the postseason at Target Field with fans in the stands – his sole Target Field postseason start as a Twin was in 2020, and fans weren’t allowed to attend games then. In five starts against his former club since the trade, Berríos has had a 4.03 ERA and 1.172 WHIP, having given up five home runs. Taking the mound for Minnesota today was Cy Young Award hopeful Sonny Gray, by far the Twins’ most prolific player this season after leading the club in Wins Above Replacement (5.4 per Baseball-Reference and 5.3 per FanGraphs) and posting a 2.79 ERA in the regular season, good for third best in the majors. Neither lineup, in theory, was expected to do a lot of damage as long as those two starters were on the mound today. But Toronto did threaten a bit early on, with two runners reaching in both, the first and the second innings, but Gray was able to put out the fire in both opportunities. He settled in nicely after the second inning, culminating in a quick, 1-2-3 top of the fourth. Meanwhile, despite allowing three hits, Berríos was sharp through three, keeping the Twins off the board, while striking out five and allowing no walks. But things would change abruptly in the home fourth. Twins take advantage of some poor managing Berríos completed three innings on 39 pitches, throwing nearly 72% strikes. But when Royce Lewis drew an eight-pitch walk against him to lead off the fourth, Blue Jays manager John Schneider decided to pull him and bring lefty Yusei Kikuchi into the game. It didn’t take long for Toronto to pay the price for that decision. Max Kepler swung on the second pitch he saw and beat the throw to first. Then, pinch-hitter Donovan Solano drew a walk against Kikuchi to load them up with no outs. Carlos Correa, who had snapped an 0-for-4 skid with an infield hit in the second, collected his second hit of the game with a grounder to center, scoring Lewis from third and keeping the bases loaded. Coming into the game to hit for Matt Wallner, Willi Castro grounded into a double play that allowed Kepler to score from third, making it 2-0 Twins. Sonny escapes another jam with a great pick-off Toronto threatened again in the fifth when George Springer hit a one-out single, his second hit of the ballgame, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. fought hard for a seven-pitch walk. When Gray threw a wild pitch, both runners moved up, and the Blue Jays could take the lead with a swing of the bat. But with Bichette batting, Gray made a fantastic throw to Correa at second to pick off Guerrero Jr. with a clean tag to the chest, ending the inning in style. Toronto challenged the play, but it was worthless. Sonny departed the game after the fifth, lowering his career postseason ERA to 2.39 in five starts. Once again, the bullpen is brilliant, holding on to a slim lead With a narrow lead, the Twins bullpen would have its work cut out for them. Again. Louie Varland took over in the sixth and struck out Bichette to lead off the inning. However, he lost the next two batters to back-to-back singles, and Rocco Baldelli decided to bring in Caleb Thielbar to get the final two outs of the inning. Thielbar got the job done, but it wasn’t easy. Santiago Espinal hit a single on the first pitch he saw from Thielbar, and the bases were loaded with only one out. Matt Chapman stepped up to the plate, and he ripped a liner to left that pulled foul by mere inches. Then, on the next pitch, he grounded into an inning-ending double play. After the offense came out empty-handed in the bottom of the sixth, the bullpen delivered again in the seventh. Brock Stewart took the mound to toss a 1-2-3 inning on 17 pitches, striking out two batters. Unfortunately, a cold offense couldn’t back him up in the home seventh. Going 1-for-9 with a walk since they scored in the fourth, Minnesota’s bats put together a threat by drawing two walks, but both runners were stranded. Griffin Jax was flawless in the top of the seventh against the heart of the Blue Jays lineup, retiring Guerrero Jr., Bichette, and Cavan Biggio in order on 15 pitches. To retire Biggio, he was involved in a scary collision on the base paths, but he was okay. Correa (hit by pitch) and Castro (single) put together a threat in the bottom of the eighth, with both of them moving into scoring position, but that didn’t pan out. It was up to Jhoan Durán to close out the game in the ninth… or was it? During some warm-up pitches, the Twins closer called the Twins training staff out to have an apparent problem on his right thumb or nail checked out. He stayed in the game, and after a pair of pitches way up, he settled in and struck out Alejandro Kirk. Espinal jumped on the first pitch for a single, but that went to waste, as Durán struck out the next two batters on six pitches. For the first time in franchise history, the Twins sweep a postseason series. What’s Next? The Twins move to the American League Division Series for the first time since 2019. They get ready for a rematch against the Houston Astros, who eliminated Minnesota in their most recent trip to the postseason, in the 2020 Wild Card Series. Game 1 of the series takes place this Saturday (October 7) at Minute Maid Park. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Jax 19 0 0 8 15 42 Paddack 39 0 0 0 0 39 Durán 11 0 0 14 13 38 Thielbar 9 0 0 10 4 23 Varland 0 0 0 2 17 19 Stewart 0 5 0 0 13 18 Funderburk 0 16 0 0 0 16 Pagán 15 0 0 0 0 15 Maeda 0 0 0 0 0 0

Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Pablo Lopez - 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K (93 Pitches, 62 Strikes, 67%) Home Runs: Royce Lewis 2 (2) Top WPA: Lewis (.243), Lopex (.165), Griffin Jax & Jhoan Duran (.074) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The Twins and Blue Jays split their season series this year, and both teams came into the playoffs with something to prove. Could the Twins erase the "streak" and start afresh with aces and rookies to guide them? Could the 2nd-generation MLB All-Stars from Toronto write a story of their own in this postseason? A packed Target Field showed up to find out, while the rest of Twins Territory got absolutely nothing done at their jobs this afternoon. After Tom Kelly threw the ceremonial first pitch to Kent Hrbek, it was time to play ball! The Game Begins One of the byproducts of Royce Lewis' uncertain return to the lineup as a DH involved finding a third baseman for this afternoon's pivotal contest. Jorge Polanco had played nine games there during the regular season, amassing a -29 Total Fielding Runs in the process. That skillset was on display in the very first at-bat, as George Springer sent an easy grounder to Polanco and he promptly threw the ball low and into the runnery. Alex Kirilloff caught the ball but Springer spiked his glove to start a somersault and to dislodge the ball. The questionable defense continued when Edouard Julien chose to get the second out at first instead of getting the lead runner Springer at second base. Lopez escaped the inning without allowing a run, but the tension level in Twins Territory remained high as the Twins came up to bat. Royce Lewis Removes All Tension, For All Time, Always Lewis wasn't sure he was going to play when asked yesterday. After Julien worked a magnificent lead-off walk, Polanco flew out to bring up Lewis. Lewis worked the count full on Gausman, and then he showed Gausman what he does with 3-2 fastballs. Target Field erupted, Lewis put on the fishing vest, and 19 years of collective angst appeared to get released. The defense in the top of the second inning tightened up and layed out. Michael A. Taylor made a sensational diving catch in center field. In the top of the third inning Polanco charged a Kevin Kiermaier chopper and whiffed, but Carlos Correa was on the spot to back up his teammate with a sensational play to nab a streaking Bo Bichette at home. Royce Lewis, Still Amazing After All These At-Bats Lewis led off the third inning, and Gausman fell behind in the count 3-1. He chose to throw another fastball for a strike, and Lewis decided to place the ball violently off of the second deck in right-center field to extend the Twins lead to 3-0, and to extend his heroic resume to another level. Two playoff at-bats, two home runs. Epic. Mid-Game Storyline: Managers Begin to Participate Both starting pitchers reached mid-70's in pitch count in the fifth inning. Gausman was relieved by LHP Erik Swanson in the bottom of the fifth after walking Lewis. Rocco Baldelli pinch-hit Donovan Solano for Kirilloff with two on and two out, Twins fans now knew that the same offensive replacement strategy that was employed throughout 2023 would not change for the playoffs. Solano flew out to end the threat. Lopez continued into the top of the sixth inning, and he got the first two outs of the inning while allowing a single to Bichette. Those were the last outs that he would achieve, as the umpire squeezed Lopez on an Alejandro Kirk walk. Kiermaier took Lopez to the opposite field for a line drive single to score Bichette, and Lopez exited the game ahead 3-1. First man up out of the bullpen for the Twins was rookie fireballer Louie Varland. Batter Matt Chapman blasted a ball deep to the right field gap, Target Field let out an audible gasp, and Taylor loped over to the wall to make a casually amazing leaping catch to end the threat. Which Bullpen Blinks First? In the bottom of the eighth, Griffin Jax got the call and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. blasted the first pitch to the wall in right field for a lead-off double. But before the anxiety could reach a fever pitch, Jax struck out Bichette and Cavan Biggio, and swept Kirk into a ground out to send the Twins into the ninth still ahead 3-1. One of the newest Blue Jays, Jordan Hicks, got the call for the bottom of the eighth, and two walks sandwiched a Correa single to load the bases with two outs. Willi Castro had entered the game in the seventh as a defensive substitution for Matt Wallner. Castro now was the man in the box with a chance to put the game away early. Hicks delivered the heat and struck out Castro looking on a tough, backdown slider. Time to turn out the lights and enter Duran. Closing Out History, and Starting a New Chapter The Twins turned to their best pitcher to collect three outs, and in so doing end 19 years of misery for an entire region and fanbase. From his first pitch bender that started his strike out of Kiermaier, to his curveball that caught Chapman looking for strike three, Duran looked to be in absolute control. Against Twin-killer Whit Merrifield, however, Duran struggled to command his fastball and Merrifield wouldn't bite on the splinker. Tension began to rise yet again, ESPN started showing highlights of sadness past, and Duran looked in to face playoff legend George Springer. One pitch. One miraculous dive by first baseman Solano. Ballgame. Streak that. Postgame: Bullpen Usage Chart: FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT Funderburk 28 0 16 0 0 44 Paddack 0 39 0 0 0 39 Stewart 25 0 5 0 0 30 Jax 0 19 0 0 8 27 Durán 0 11 0 0 14 25 Pagán 9 15 0 0 0 24 Thielbar 3 9 0 0 10 22 Varland 0 0 0 0 2 2 Maeda 0 0 0 0 0 0

Successful teams in October rely on shutdown bullpen arms in the late innings of tight games. Minnesota's last playoff win came in 2004, with Joe Nathan earning the save at a time when he was considered one of the game's best closers. Flash-forward nearly two decades, and the team's bullpen is built around another dominant closer. Can the other relievers bridge the gap between the starters and the final innings? Minnesota's postseason roster will include changes from one round to the next if the team can win its best-of-three Wild Card Series. Rosters can include 26 players for the playoffs, so the club will likely utilize 15 position players and 11 pitchers for the first round. Three pitchers will be the scheduled starters, leaving eight spots open for bullpen arms. Closer: Jhoan Duran Duran has been one of baseball's best relievers over the last two seasons, ranking third among AL relievers in WPA since the start of 2022. He began the 2022 season well before a rough patch in July and August that saw his ERA rise from below 2.00 to nearly 3.00. Since August 4th, the Twins have focused on giving Duran more regular rest, significantly impacting his overall performance. In 16 games (16 2/3 innings), he has allowed two earned runs with a 22-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio while holding batters to a .551 OPS. His lone blemish in recent games was the team's division-clinching win, but he said his nerves impacted his performance that night. In the playoffs, the Twins have some questions to answer about how they use Duran. How can he perform in back-to-back appearances? Will the Twins use him for more than one inning? Duran can be a playoff weapon, especially if the team finds a way to keep him fresh. Set-Up: Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar Jax has earned a high-leverage role from the Twins bullpen over the last two seasons. However, there have been some up-and-down moments with his performance in 2023, including May, which saw his ERA balloon to 5.59. Bad luck has been mixed into his overall performance, as his ERA is nearly 70 points higher than his FIP. The Twins will ask Jax to get some critical outs in October, and the hope is that the dominant version of Jax will appear that night. Thielbar has saved the Twins bullpen in recent years after being on the brink of retirement. He's worked with Driveline in recent offseasons to move his fastball velocity from 89.8 mph to 93.0 mph during the 2023 season. He's added a sweeper that has limited batters to a .222 SLG, and his curveball generates whiffs over 30% of the time. As a southpaw, he has dominated against left-handed batters this year by holding them to a .356 OPS in over 45 plate appearances. The Twins can't use him strictly against lefties in the playoffs, so seeing how he is deployed will be interesting. Middle Relief: Emilio Pagan, Louie Varland Many fans were ready for the Twins to DFA Pagan earlier this season, but he's settled into one of the team's most reliable arms. His 3.17 ERA is the third lowest of his career and his lowest mark since the 2019 season. Pagan ranks third among Twins relievers in fWAR behind Duran and Jax. Pagan will be asked to get essential outs in the middle innings in the playoffs, and that's a scenario few would have imagined. Varland has only made a limited number of relief appearances after shifting to the role recently. However, he has been electric out of the bullpen with a triple-digit fastball and an improved cutter that can be a weapon against righties and lefties, including a 46% Swing%. His relief appearances haven't been perfect, but the Twins will need him to have a successful October. Injury Enforcements: Brock Stewart, Chris Paddack Stewart was one of the Twins' best relievers during the 2023 season before an arm injury forced him to the IL. There have been some setbacks along the way, but his most recent rehab saw his velocity in the high 90s, so there is hope he can help the postseason bullpen. Paddack is returning from Tommy John surgery, and the Twins added him to the bullpen mix last weekend. He got a lot of swings and misses during his rehab appearances, including hitting in the upper 90s with his fastball. There is potential for him to be a bullpen weapon in October that other teams need to prepare to face. Shifting Starters: Kenta Maeda, Dallas Keuchel Maeda has a solid argument to be the team's number-three starter in the postseason, but Joe Ryan is also in the conversation. Before joining the Twins, Maeda was used by the Dodgers in a relief role for multiple postseason runs. The current version of Maeda is very different from the dominant postseason arm. Keuchel has made multiple relief appearances for the Twins, but he's been used in a piggyback role, which isn't optimal for October. It isn't likely for Keuchel to see time on the mound in October unless there are some injuries. Rookie Wild Card: Kody Funderburk Funderburk has been one of the organization's best relief prospects over the last two seasons. The Twins waited until late in the season to give him his first taste of the big leagues, so it will be interesting to see if he gets an opportunity in October. Break Glass In Case of Emergency: Dylan Floro, Josh Winder, Brent Headrick, Cole Sands Something went wrong if the team asked any of these players to pitch significant innings in October. Injuries can always play a factor, but most of this group has moved up and down from Triple-A throughout the season. Minnesota's front office bet on the arms in the organization by not making a trade for relief help at the deadline. That faith will result in the best version of the club's bullpen so far this year, and it's happening at the perfect time. How do you feel the bullpen stacks up entering October? Do you have faith in the group covering the late innings? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

For some reason, there is a small, yet vocal tangent of casual Twins fans that think the team shouldn’t be confident in their second-year closer, Jhoan Duran. Despite a strong 2.49 ERA and excellent peripherals to back up his stellar performance, some think he’s too shaky to have success in the postseason. Their criticism could speak more to their general apprehension to the Twins team in general after 18 straight losses in the playoffs, some coming at the hands of a lackluster relief corps. But that shouldn’t be Duran’s problem as his team nears their first playoff game, especially after the encouraging campaign he’s had this season. Not only has the Twins’ closer displayed some of the most dominant raw stuff of anyone in the league, but there’s reason to believe he’s one of the better arms that will be playing in October. Yes, Duran’s fastball is his calling card. It’s hard to not be known as the guy that touched 104 MPH earlier this season. His heater has averaged 101.4 MPH since breaking into the league at the beginning of last season, which is by far the highest among all relievers in that span according to Inside Edge. The next highest is Jordan Hicks of the Toronto Blue Jays, whose 99.8 MPH average velocity is nearly two whole ticks lower than that of Duran. The Twins’ closer throws fireballs, and for the most part, is quite successful when doing so. Opponents have a whopping 35% miss rate on that offering, which is third-best among all pitchers in baseball this season. While that pitch is impressive, it’s certainly not perfect. Half of the home runs that Duran has given up have come off of his fastball, and he’s allowed a .380 slugging percentage off of it (which is still quite good, but the highest of each of his offerings). One of the only blemishes on his Baseball Savant page is his 40th percentile average exit velocity allowed, and much of that stems from the higher-velocity pitches going a long way when they do get hit. The other bruise to Duran’s stat line is his 9.6% walk rate, which is a valid concern, but it’s not the insurmountable anchor that the vocal minority seem to think it is. So maybe that’s where the trepidation surrounding the hulking reliever comes from. Maybe Duran’s harshest critics can’t get past the idea that their relief ace could allow runners to reach base in a pivotal moment for his team in the postseason. This fear was festered by the performance of Twins’ relievers of yesteryear, who couldn’t live up to the moment when the stadium lights were shining brightest. But, again, that has nothing to do with Duran. In fact, he’s performed stronger than almost anybody that the Twins could face in the first few rounds of the postseason. Just take a look at the class of relievers that are or could feasibly make the postseason in the American League (this includes surefire playoff teams such as the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, as well as those still fighting for the last few spots on the bracket such as the Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners). Of all the relief pitchers on those teams that could possibly be in the playoffs, Duran has the eighth-best ERA, and only two of the names listed above his have a better strikeout rate (Bryan Abreu and Felix Bautista, who is currently on the injured list and may not even make the playoff roster). Of the seven pitchers with a better ERA than Duran, four have a higher walk rate. This shows us that few have gotten better results in terms of allowing earned runs to score, and those that have can’t seem to match his strikeout capability. If they can, they tend to struggle even more with Duran’s main blemish, which is walking batters. So if some think that we should be concerned with Duran as the Twins head to the playoffs, the same could be said for nearly every other pitcher on contending teams. At that point, the issue becomes the fickle nature of a close ballgame in the late innings, and not the fire-breathing monster who has led the Twins’ relief corps for the last two years. Could Duran give up a lead in a postseason game? Of course. Any pitcher can. But until that happens, fans should sit back and enjoy the ride - especially if it comes with the best entrance music and light show of anyone in the game. What do you think? Are you confident in Duran as he heads into postseason play? Is there anyone in the league that you would rather have closing out a playoff game? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section down below. And as always, keep it sweet.

Box Score Starting Pitcher: Pablo López, 4.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (77 pitches, 53 strikes, 68.8%) Home Runs: Edouard Julien (15), Ryan Jeffers (13) Top 3 WPA: Trevor Larnach (.263), Ryan Jeffers (.228), Dallas Keuchel (.104) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) With less than a week until the start of the postseason, Twins fans got a final look at Minnesota’s potential Wild Card game-one starter in Pablo López, even if it wasn’t for long. López didn’t look so sharp to start the game, giving up a leadoff walk and a single, but responded by retiring six consecutive, five of them by strikeout. The offense was also in business very early, with Édouard Julien jumping on Oakland’s very first pitch of the game for his 15th home run of the season. Then, in the bottom of the second, Minnesota’s secret weapon, Willi Castro, was once again a difference-maker. He got hit by a pitch, stole second (his 33rd stolen base of the year), then scored on a Kyle Farmer double that diving right-fielder Seth Brown failed to glove, making it 2-0 Twins. López had a rather shaky third inning, starting with a leadoff double to Lawrence Butler. Despite retiring the following two batters on eight pitches, Pablo gave up an RBI single to Brown, who swung on the first pitch of the at-bat to drive in Butler. Old friend Brent Rooker kept the inning alive with a ground ball "single" to short. But after a challenge by the Twins, the call was overturned, and the inning was over. It was expected that López’s start wasn’t going to be a long one. After delivering a 1-2-3 fourth, Pablo came back for the fifth with his pitch count nearing 70 pitches. After a groundout to open the frame, he lost Butler to a double and Ryan Noda to a single, prompting Rocco Baldelli to call on the bullpen. Caleb Thielbar took over, and the A’s were able to push three runs across and take the lead on an Aledmys Díaz double and a Rooker single – both with two outs. Despite the short start, López did throw six strikeouts, which got him to a total of 234 on the season, the most by a Twins pitcher since Johan Santana threw 235 in 2007. According to Do-Hyoung Park, those 234 strikeouts are tied with Dean Chance (1968) for the most by any Twins pitcher not named Johan Santana or Bert Blyleven. Making the second big-league start of his career, rookie Joey Estes was never in big trouble while he was on the mound. But despite his low pitch count, he was pulled from the game in the sixth after giving up a one-out single to Max Kepler. Reliever Kyle Muller took over, and it didn’t take long for the Twins to take advantage of the pitching change. Jordan Luplow struck out for the second out of the inning, but before Muller could get out of it, Ryan Jeffers made him pay by crushing a game-tying two-run shot to left. Emilio Pagán didn’t have trouble pitching through the sixth. He did give up a two-out triple, but he compensated that with three punch outs. Then, things got interesting. Baldelli made the unusual call to bring Jhoan Durán into the game to pitch the seventh. He did great, striking out the side for a 1-2-3 inning on 14 pitches. But this decision sure raises a lot of questions about how might Durán be used in the postseason. This has been the first time this season Durán has entered a game before the eighth inning, and the first time in his career since September 11, 2022. The offense wasted a two-men-on and no-outs situation in the eighth, after Christian Vázquez and Julien hit back-to-back singles to open the inning, but got stranded. However, after Dallas Keuchel delivered a scoreless eighth on only nine pitches (seven strikes), the bats didn’t miss their opportunity in the bottom of the inning. Kepler hit a leadoff single, and with Andrew Stevenson as a pinch-runner, Trevor Larnach hit a long double to right that outfielder Esteury Ruiz had a really hard time playing, allowing Stevenson to score from first and give the Twins the lead. Larnach moved to third on a wild pitch, then he scored on a Jeffers sacrifice fly to make it 6-4 Minnesota. Keuchel remained in the game for the ninth. He got the first batter to ground out quickly, but then surrendered a single and hit a batter. He was given the opportunity to get the second out, and he did so by striking out Noda. It wasn’t a smooth at-bat, as he got ahead on the count 0-2, but allowed Noda to get back in it with a full count. Griffin Jax came in to try to get the final out, and after a hard-fought eight-pitch at-bat, he struck out Zack Gelof looking to end it. Postgame interview What’s Next? In their final home game of the regular season, Sonny Gray (8-8, 2.80 ERA) and the Twins take on the A’s to close out the series tomorrow. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10 pm CDT, and Oakland will bring Luis Medina (3-10, 5.64 ERA) to the mound. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Paddack 0 0 0 40 0 40 Pagán 10 0 0 0 18 28 Keuchel 0 0 0 0 28 28 Funderburk 0 27 0 0 0 27 Jax 0 0 0 17 8 25 Thielbar 0 0 0 0 18 18 Stewart 0 0 0 16 0 16 Varland 0 15 0 0 0 15 Durán 0 0 0 0 14 14

Strikeouts have become increasingly part of the game because baseball is a game that continually evolves. Increases in research and technology have allowed pitchers to add velocity and more movement to their pitches, making them even more challenging to hit. Batters also have a wealth of data about opposing pitchers. Hitting a round baseball with a round bat is one of the most challenging tasks in professional sports, leading to higher strikeout totals. Pitching Staff’s Strike Out Prowess Minnesota’s pitching staff entered play on Sunday with a league-leading 1,461 strikeouts. The Twins have baseball’s highest K% (25.4%) and K-BB% (17.9%). Minnesota can realistically move into the all-time top-25 list for strikeouts at their current rate of striking out more than 9.2 times per game. The 2018 Houston Astros set the all-time record with 1,687 strikeouts, but to reach the top 25, the Twins only need to collect 1,524 strikeouts. Building a strikeout pitching staff has taken some time, but the Twins have developed arms up-and-down the roster. Pablo Lopez leads the Twins with over 228 strikeouts, which puts him into elite company among the franchise’s strikeout list. Only three pitchers in team history have struck out more batters in a season than Lopez. Joe Ryan led the Twins in strikeouts during the 2022 season, and he currently ranks second on the team with 181, with Sonny Gray only two strikeouts behind him. Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda have accumulated over 100 strikeouts during the season. Minnesota’s bullpen also includes three pitchers (Brock Stewart, Jhoan Duran, and Kody Funderburk) with a K/9 of 11.5 or higher. In tight playoff games, strikeouts can be the difference between a team getting out of a jam or seeing the opposition score runs. Lineup Strikeout Issues The Twins lineup has already set the team record for strikeouts in a season, and they are in the top 15 all-time for strikeouts in MLB history. Minnesota has struck out ten times or more in 88 times through the team’s first 155 games, which smashes the previous record of 66 games with 10+ strikeouts. Unfortunately, the team has also struck out 13 times or more in 33 games this season, with a season-high 18 strikeouts versus Seattle on July 25th. Looking at the lineup, there is some hope for a late-season turnaround. Things have changed in the second half with the emergence of a young core that has improved the team’s overall offensive output while also improving at drawing walks. Among American League teams, only the Houston Astros have scored more runs since the All-Star break. Six Twins players have a K% above 30% for the season, with Joey Gallo leading the way (42.8%). Three of the six players will have little to do with the playoff roster, including Gallo, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton. Recent Postseason History Strikeouts play a role in October but don’t guarantee postseason success. During the 2022 season, the four pitching staffs in the Championship Series ranked in the top 10 or higher in strikeout rate. Offensively, none of the final four ranked higher than 13th in total strikeouts. The Astros won the World Series and finished with the fourth-most strikeouts from their pitching staff and the second-fewest strikeouts from their batters. In 2021, the Braves won the World Series, and their batters finished with the 11th most strikeouts while their pitchers were only slightly above the league average. The Dodgers (2nd), Red Sox (5th), and Astros (11th) were among the final four teams and ranked higher than the Braves according to strikeouts from the pitching staff. However, the Astros (2nd fewest strikeouts) were the lone final four team to be better than league-average on the offensive side. The Twins have embraced the strikeout on both sides of the ball. Only the 2015 Cubs and the 1958 Dodgers have led the league in both pitching and batting strikeout rates in the same season. Both clubs went on to win the World Series the following season. Twins fans likely don’t want to wait until next year and can hope their strikeout performance can carry them during the 2023 postseason. Are you worried about the Twins’ strikeout totals? Can a team succeed in the postseason on the two strikeout extremes? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Box Score Pablo López: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K Home Runs: Alex Kirilloff (10) Top 3 WPA: Kyle Farmer (.165), Alex Kirilloff (.147), Louie Varland (.094) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) It was perhaps the most raucous night in Target Field history. With a playoff magic number down to 1, the Twins no longer had to TV-watch in the hopes that some other team could help their fortunes; they now commanded the situation, making a potential victory on Friday a clinching occasion. And, it was fitting that the man looking to lead Minnesota was the starter they acquired in an eternally controversial trade. Pablo López appeared dominant. He diced through the Angels early, either eliciting a strikeout or a groundout as LA’s hapless lineup fell over themselves with glee to get out. They were caught looking; they went down swinging. Even the one time they got on base was a 70 MPH lazy fly too lethargic to reach an outfielder. In every sense, they were overwhelmed. Minnesota’s offense, however, was energetic. From the beginning, there was a buzz surrounding their bats, fueling them; firing them up even after a quiet 1st. Silent no more, they took an inevitable lead when Michael A. Taylor shot a single into center field. So they added on in the 4th; Willi Castro blasted a triple out to left, and he would eventually be knocked in… with a walk. Unusual as it was, LA’s new bulk man—Davis Daniel—couldn’t find the strike zone if Vegas-style neon signs guided him to the plate. Balls begat walks; walks begat runs. Matt Wallner plated a run with a free pass before Alex Kirilloff knocked in a second one with a sacrifice fly. The three-run lead seemed a fortress. A baseball game can turn quickly, though, and an Angels offense that seemed impotent and stale suddenly turned. Jo Adell walked, setting up Jared Walsh to punish a López fastball thrown into the heart of the plate. If that were it, Minnesota would have still claimed the lead; but LA tacked on, riding López’s sudden lack of command for a trio of singles, turning the game tied when Nolan Schanuel’s opposite-field single fell safely into left. It was a sudden shock to the Twins’ system. The team appeared so in control of the game but found themselves tied with a squad only competent in half an inning. While Minnesota couldn’t answer in the 5th, they did in the 6th; Alex Kirilloff plastered a high-and-tight fastball deep enough into right to clear the overhang. The Twins had the lead again. It soon became a bullpen game. López fires off a scoreless 6th, giving way to the relief buzz saw that is Louie Varland in the 7th. He barely broke a sweat with a perfect inning. Instantly cooling was a breakthrough 8th—the kind of frame that decides the game and puts a manager at ease. Minnesota pummeled Jhonathan Diaz, sticking four runs on the lefty through a variety of methods. Most notably: yet another bases-loaded situation that turned into bonus runs. (This is quite the game to give a detailed playback if you didn’t notice). Somehow the runs didn’t discourage the Angels, though, as they struck back in the 8th with a two-run shot to slice the lead to three—making Jhoan Duran the likely candidate to end the game. If you thought that would be it, then you don't know Twins baseball. Duran indeed entered the game, but he soon labored. The strike zone was nebulous; his control sparse. He struck out the opening batter before entering into a prolonged Cold War, walking and allowing singles with un-Durian flair. Finally, after throwing God knows how many pitches, Duran coaxed the game-winning groundout, fielded by Edouard Julien, and transforming the Twins into the 2023 AL Central division champions. Notes: Alex Kirilloff’s homer gave the Twins 12 players with at least 10 homers on the year, a club record (the 2019 team had 11; Jake Cave was two away from being the 12th). Minnesota's 10 walks on Friday give them 557 on the year, good for the 12th most in franchise history. Pablo López's seven strikeouts pushed his season total to 228, tied with 1972 Bert Blyleven for the 9th-most in team history. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins and Angels will play the second game of their weekend series on Saturday; Sonny Gray will take the mound with first pitch coming at 12:10 PM. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

Box Score Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober, 5.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (97 pitches, 60 strikes, 61.9%) Home Runs: Willi Castro (9) Top 3 WPA: Willi Castro (.353), Jorge Polanco (.207), Kyle Farmer (.172) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) In the first two games of this Cincinnati series, the Twins were dealt two significant blows on the injury front, with Carlos Correa departing Monday’s game after the first inning with an aggravated left foot plantar fasciitis and Royce Lewis limping out of Tuesday’s game in the eighth with an apparent hamstring injury. But news emerged earlier today that helped calm Twins fans down a bit. Shortly before today’s game, the Twins placed Correa on the 10-day Injured List and recalled Trevor Larnach from Triple-A St. Paul. However, as reported by MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park, Correa has a full-thickness tear to the central cortex of the area, and that tear might facilitate the healing process. Also, Bally Sports North's Audra Martin reported during the broadcast that Royce Lewis was able to ride the stationary bike in the clubhouse this morning and that his condition is "much better than expected." On to the game, and neither offense was able to bother their opposing starters much during the first two innings. Bailey Ober, the 346th pick in the 2017 Draft, and Hunter Greene, the 2nd overall pick the Twins passed on to select Royce Lewis, didn’t allow any hits in that span. But things changed in the third, as both of them pitched themselves into jams. Andrew Stevenson hit a leadoff double and was followed by a single from Christian Vázquez. Greene, however, managed to retire the next three batters and end the threat. Ober was also ambushed in the bottom of the inning and he couldn’t keep the zero on the board. Will Benson worked a leadoff walk, and a couple of at-bats later, Ober hit Jonathan India on the shoulder to put two men on with only one out. TJ Friedl stepped up to the plate and slapped a base hit to left to score Benson. Spencer Steer then hit a long flyball to center that, fortunately, was caught by Michael A. Taylor for the second out, but both runners moved into scoring position. After an eight-pitch at-bat, Ober struck out Jake Fraley, to end a 35-pitch inning for him. Greene dominated Minnesota’s offense throughout this game, including eight strikeouts through four innings. After a shaky third, Ober gave up a home run to former Twin Christian Encarnacion-Strand to lead off the bottom of the fourth, making it 2-0 Reds. This time, though, he was able to navigate through the inning without much risk. Ober settled in well and completed five innings on 96 pitches before Josh Winder took over in the sixth. Castro brings the Twins back… Twice! Greene struck out Max Kepler to lead off the top of the seventh, making it 13 punch outs for him in the afternoon – already a career-high for him. When it seemed like the Twins offense would get nothing against him, Willi Castro went yard for a second consecutive game, the first time he’s done so this season. That was all the damage the Twins could inflict, as Greene picked up his 14th strikeout on the day on his way to complete seven innings. Winder had tossed a quick, easy sixth, before giving up a leadoff triple to Benson in the seventh. That’s when things got weird. Luke Maile made a bunt attempt, the ball went into play, and he was initially out. David Bell noticed the ball had hit Maile on the fingers and challenged the call, and a review showed the ball hit Maile in the box and was ruled dead, turning Maile’s failed bunt attempt into a strike, and allowing the at-bat to continue. On the very next pitch, Maile hit a bloop single to shallow left, driving in Benson from third and making it 3-1 Reds. Minnesota didn’t give up, and they made this a one-run game again in the eighth, once Greene was no longer in the game. Vázquez doubled to deep right to lead off the inning, and after Larnach flied out, Édouard Julien got his first hit of the day, a bloop single to center, deep enough to score Vázquez. After Jhoan Durán pitched around a leadoff walk to deliver a scoreless eighth, the Twins were ready to rally in the ninth. Castro was once again the headliner. Facing reliever Alexis Díaz, he hit a leadoff bunt single, then immediately tried stealing second. He succeeded, and more, as Maile made an awful throw to second, allowing Castro to advance to third. Kyle Farmer smacked a single to right to score Castro and tie the game. Vázquez drew a one-out walk, prompting a pitching change. But that was useless. After striking out Larnach for the second out, Sam Moll intentionally walked Ryan Jeffers to face Jorge Polanco next and load the bases. Polo wasted no time, and jumped on the very first pitch for a base hit down the middle, scoring Farmer and Vázquez and giving the Twins their first lead of the afternoon, 5-3. One week after giving up a game-winning home run to the Rays in the ninth, Griffin Jax was given another late high-leverage opportunity today. He came in to pitch the ninth, and despite giving up a leadoff walk, he was able to retire the side and record his third save of the season. Postgame interview What’s Next? The Twins head back to the Twin Cities, where they’ll have a day off on Thursday and kick off their final homestand of the season the next day. They host the Los Angeles Angels for a three-gamer over the weekend, with game one scheduled for 7:10 pm CDT on Friday. Pablo López (10-8, 3.58 ERA) takes the mound for Minnesota, while the Angels’ starter is yet to be determined. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Keuchel 0 0 58 0 0 58 Winder 25 0 0 0 29 54 Pagán 0 22 0 8 0 30 Durán 9 0 0 0 21 30 Jax 0 13 0 0 17 30 Funderburk 0 0 0 20 0 20 Thielbar 0 0 0 16 0 16 Floro 0 0 0 16 0 16 Varland 0 0 0 0 0 0

Box Score Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan - 4.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K (102 Pitches, 71 Strikes, 69.6% Strikes) Home Runs: Edouard Julien (12), Willi Castro (7) Top WPA: Willi Castro (.401), Jhoan Duran (.158), Louie Varland (.152) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Old Faces in New Jerseys Part 1 The Twins faced a familiar foe on the mound Tuesday night in Zack Littell. Littell pitched three years for the Twins, with 2019 being his best run with 29 relief appearances, a 6-0 mark, and 1.16 WHIP during the Bomba Squad season. The other two seasons were far less successful, which is why Littell found his way to San Francisco, then Texas, then Boston, and now as a starter (of course he is) with a 1.12 WHIP on the playoff-bound Rays. Littell cruised through the lineup the first time through. When Edouard Julien came up again in the bottom of the third inning, he pumped the brakes on Littell and the ball deep into the Rays bullpen to put the Twins up 1-0. Old Faces in New Jerseys Part 2 The Twins' pitcher on Tuesday night also looked familiar to the team he was facing. Joe Ryan was drafted in the seventh round in 2018 by Tampa Bay and came to Minnesota in the post-Bomba Nelson Cruz trade. Ryan had the Rays' number the first time through the lineup, holding them hitless. Once the lineup turned over, the offensive action started in earnest. Brandon Lowe laced a double on the first pitch of the fourth inning, and he might have stayed there if not for a "Carlos Correa wishes he had that one back" liner by Josh Lowe (no relation) that went from being an inning-ending double play into a run-scoring single in the blink of an eye. Is This Really Zack Littell? Julien might have created a bump in the road for Littell, but he was back on cruise control immediately. Through his first six innings of work, he had surrendered only two hits on 66 pitches at an 80 percent strike rate. The Twins looked rushed as they tried to conquer Littell early in the count. They failed to make quality contact and found themselves playing from behind after the Rays took a 2-1 lead in the top of the fifth on a Rene Pinto home run. Ryan pitched well but didn't escape the fifth inning after eclipsing the 100-pitch mark and cluttering the bases with two outs. Is This Really Louie Varland? The artist formerly known as the starter Varland entered the fifth inning to clean up Ryan's mess and clean up he did. Varland got J. Lowe to fly out to end that threat, struck out the side impressively in the sixth, and got another three outs in the seventh. Varland faced seven batters and got seven outs in his trial run for playoff playing time. Will the Twins Realize This is Zack Littell Before its Too Late? In the bottom of the seventh inning, with the score still 2-1 Rays, Max Kepler blooped a single into right-center with one out. Littell looked like he was going to escape yet again after striking out Correa for the second out, but Willi Castro had other thoughts. Deep, powerful, and game-changing thoughts... The Rays bullpen offered another chance for added insurance, with control issues leading to a bases-loaded situation in the bottom of the eighth inning. A Correa pop fly ended the rally, and the game was handed to Jhoan Duran with a 3-2 lead in the ninth. Duran thought three up, three down was all the drama that Twins fans deserved tonight as he sent the Target Field faithful home happy with dreams of a single-digit magic number on their minds. The Rays bullpen offered another chance for added insurance, with control issues leading to a bases-loaded situation in the bottom of the eighth inning. A Correa pop fly ended the rally, and the game was handed to Jhoan Duran with a 3-2 lead in the ninth. Duran thought three up, three down was all the drama that Twins fans deserved tonight as he sent the Target Field faithful home happy with dreams of a single-digit magic number on their minds. Next Up The Twins look to take the series from Tampa Bay and will rely on crafty veteran LHP Dallas Keuchel (1-1, 4.78 ERA). The Rays will counter with rookie RHP Taj Bradley (5-7, 5.44 ERA), who is making his 18th career start. First pitch at Target Field is scheduled for 12:10pm CDT on what looks to be a gorgeous Wednesday afternoon. The Twins are 17-9 at home since the All-Star break in a trend that bodes well for the opening round of the playoffs. Up-to-Date Standings AL Central W L Pct GB Minnesota 76 69 .524 0.0 Cleveland 68 77 .469 8.0 Post-Game Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT Varland 0 20 0 0 31 51 Headrick 0 0 0 47 0 47 Winder 0 0 0 38 0 38 Thielbar 15 10 0 0 11 36 Floro 0 11 0 24 0 35 Jax 8 0 24 0 0 32 Durán 14 0 0 0 10 24 Funderburk 0 15 0 0 0 15 Pagán 11 0 0 0 0 11

Box Score Dallas Keuchel: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K Home Runs: Carlos Correa (18) Top 3 WPA: Carlos Correa (.121), Andrew Stevenson (.120), Caleb Thielbar (.086) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) It had been a while: the Twins and Mets played each other for the first time since 2019, when Minnesota shockingly decimated Jacob deGrom in the middle of his historic terror, and Luis Arraez shook his head into our hearts with his legendary pinch-hit walk off of Edwin Díaz. Those may have been in two separate series, but such memorable events coming from these two teams facing off spoke to something happening tonight. Folks... just wait. Kodai Senga started for New York. The 30-year-old Japanese sensation entered the game with an excellent 2023 already behind him, as his special “ghost-fork” has helped strike out the world. He’s had his issues, though: command occasionally eludes him, as the fork ball refuses to ever truly be mastered, and the Twins were well-prepared to wait him out early. Jorge Polanco walked in the 1st, giving Minnesota their first base runner of the night. They quickly had their second base runner of the night; Royce Lewis scalded a double into the left-field corner, allowing Polanco to gallop home. Dallas Keuchel appreciated the help. The veteran lefty was matched up against a lineup likely far younger than the Mets expected to have at this time of the year—and he diced them up with ease. He worked the edges early, opening up his arsenal of looping off-speed pitches. Usually behind in the count, New York’s rookies flailed helplessly, jutting all sorts of ligaments out over the plate as they swung in vain to make contact. He struck out six. But, things weren’t always smooth sailing—the Mets still employed some talented veterans, after all—and Keuchel ran into trouble in the 4th inning. A walk and a pounded double by Pete Alonso placed two runners in scoring position. Francisco Lindor then caught a cutter far to center-cut not to hit, and plated both runners with a double. Keuchel escaped the trouble with yet another signature double play. And the lead lasted four pitches. Carlos Correa—who was once almost a Met, if your memory can extend back that far—pulverized a Senga offering into the second deck. The ball looked to be rising as it reached the seats. Things settled; Senga found control not previously seen on Saturday, and the Twins began their adventure through their bullpen. Runners sometimes reached, but all rallies died a tepid death. That is, until the bottom of the 7th inning, when perhaps the most ridiculous play since Miguel Sanó lined a ball into right against the Tigers in 2022. With Andrew Stevenson on 2nd and Willi Castro on 1st, the Twins called for a double steal, sending both runners bolting for the next base. Sean Reid-Foley’s offering hit the dirt, shooting by Francisco Álvarez to give the runners their desired base. Stevenson was greedy. He took a few extra steps before letting the universe know through body language that he (messed) up. He scrambled back to third base. Álvarez’s throw scooted into left, sending Stevenson home; Tim Locastro’s throw scooted beyond anyone’s grasp, making Stevenson safe. And, the Twins tacked on two more runs. (The second scored on a Max Kepler dying quail that Bally Sports evidently deemed not cool enough to tweet). That was about it. Jhoan Duran shook off drama after firing a 103 MPH to nowhere in particular, re-finding the strike zone, and ending the game with a pair of strikeouts and a fielder's choice. Notes: Dallas Keuchel's six strikeouts were the most for him in one outing since joining the Twins. Carlos Correa is two homers away from having his 7th 20+ home run season in MLB. Willi Castro's 31st stolen base ties him with 1976 Larry Hisle and 2001 Luis Rivas for the 14th-highest single season total in Twins history. Royce Lewis' pair of doubles gave him his first multi extra-base-hit game since August 24th. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins and Mets will play the second game of their series on Saturday. First pitch will exit Kenta Maeda’s right hand at 1:10 PM. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

MLB Network's Matt Vasgersian reflected upon the Twins’ recent excruciating win over Texas with the following statement: “Those are the kind of wins that make you feel like a team of destiny.” That statement made me a little nauseous. Let me be clear, this is not a team of destiny, and anyone who watches their games will agree. Not only have they not played to that level, but also I look at that branding as a negative. Generally, teams that are proclaimed as such are nothing more than what I call "cute stories," a baseball trope I have been following for years. The teams that represent the cutest stories never advance past the Divisional Series. I think there is something to that. Let me explain. First, let's establish what constitutes a “cute story” type of team: The easiest to define criteria is that they play above their talent level. They may have stars or even superstars but, in broad strokes, their run differential won’t be great and they end up with 89-93 wins, give or take. Think about the 2022 Guardians, 2021 White Sox, 2016 Rangers, 2013 Pirates, 2010 Braves or the 2003, 2009, and 2017 Twins. If you are using the phrase "pure magic" to describe a team eliminated in the Divisional Series, you may be talking about a cute story. Next, they rely on a “formula” to win games. This might involve a post-hype prospect the league hasn’t adjusted to (think Jose Tabata or Kevin Newman types) getting on base and getting driven in by a waiver claim slugger having a career year hitting a high volume of mistake pitches (think Mike Ford or Jesus Aguilar). The starter (often with a below average strikeout rate) keeps them in the game and turns it over to a (usually) strong bullpen without great peripheral numbers. Their closer then comes in, only when there is a lead, and nails down the win. We’ve seen this. It doesn’t work. In the playoffs every tendency is broken down and weaknesses are exploited. The post-hype prospect goes 1-for-12 with an infield hit (and gets thrown out trying to steal following the hit), and the waiver claim slugger strikes out 15 times because they have huge holes in their swing and struggle against elite pitching. If they somehow have a lead, the closer riles up the crowd and throws their signature pitch... except it's rocked for a first pitch home run or double. Then they start to nibble, walk some guys (“they don’t usually do this!” says the broadcast) and before you know it, a rally has started. The problem with cute story teams is that there is generally a lack of substance to their success beyond just raw run differential. They thrive off of good vibes, rags-to-riches narratives and general "underdoggery." The 2003 Twins were saved by Shannon Stewart and rode a hot second half to a playoff berth, despite a rotation that consisted of five guys whose best ERA+ was 101. Thankfully, Johan Santana was allowed to step in and front the rotation, but when the playoffs rolled around Brad Radke and Kyle Lohse were no match for the Yankees’ number two and three starters (Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, respectively). Doug Mientkiewicz went 2-for-15. Luis Rivas went 0-for-13. Christian Guzman went 2-for-13. Jacque Jones, who was known to struggle against lefties, was left to die against Pettitte. These were not competitive answers to what the Yankees were throwing at the Twins. It stems, I think, from expecting success based on the numbers their players have accumulated during their nice little run in the regular season. As human beings, the team wants to “reward” them for their success, even if logically they had no business featuring prominently in a playoff roster. For example, Mientkiewicz and Matt LeCroy had good numbers for the 2003 Twins, but they were still Doug Mientkiewicz and Matt LeCroy. Brian Duensing had a great stretch run for the 2009 Twins, but he was still Brian Duensing. Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon both had good years as closers on playoff teams, but they were who they were. Now let’s take a look at the 2023 Twins. Compared to cute teams of the past, they look pretty good. All of their contributors are having either a down year (Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco) or are performing pretty in line with what they’ve done before (Donovan Solano, Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Jhoan Duran). The only players playing above their previous norms, and it is debatable, are Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor and Ryan Jeffers. It isn’t exactly clear why Kepler is suddenly an offensive force, but Jeffers was projected as a plus offensive catcher and has shown plenty of flashes in the past. The rotation is indisputably solid and playoff caliber, ranking first in Fangraphs’ metric for rotation quality. The offense is powered by a trio of rookies in Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. Although their success couldn’t have necessarily been predicted, no one should be surprised based on their track record as prospects. Alex Kirilloff appears close to a rehab assignment. That could give him plenty of time to get his timing back before October. Byron Buxton will attempt to play center field upon his return which may be around the same time. Take a look at their projected lineup against a right-hander in the playoffs if both of those scenarios come to fruition: Edouard Julien DH Jorge Polanco 2B Carlos Correa SS Byron Buxton CF Alex Kirilloff 1B Royce Lewis 3B Max Kepler RF Matt Wallner LF Ryan Jeffers C This configuration is a lot of things, but it isn’t cute. The two highly-paid stars, Buxton and Correa, might be its weakest links. Now, some of those guys will go cold in the next month or so, and it's fairly likely that one or two will get hurt. However, Donovan Solano is a good fallback option, and in most years Austin Martin would be a potential late-season sparkplug. Now compare that to the Baltimore Orioles, my favorite for this year’s cutest team. Think about who starts Game 1 of a playoff series for them. It’s probably Kyle Bradish, who is having a nice year, but doesn’t have an overwhelming strikeout percentage and has never been a Top 100 prospect. He also has no real track record of success and is fast approaching his career high of 145 1/3 innings pitched. Their next choice is Kyle Gibson and his 85 ERA+. Twins fans are familiar with his work. Their third choice is probably Grayson Rodriguez, who was a Top 5 global prospect going into the year and has tons of potential, but has pitched to a 5.38 ERA over 17 starts. They have a decent crop of above average hitters, but none are superstars, even if Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman certainly have that projection. Their offense has been carried at points by Ryan O’Hearn, who they picked up off waivers with a career 83 OPS+ prior to this year. And their dominant closer, Felix Bautista, is now out with a damaged UCL, leaving former Twin Yennier Cano to close out tight games in a pennant race. He’s been good, but his strikeout rate is below average (23.9%) and he is unproven. I like their chances for the next five years, but this year they are too cute by half. The nice thing for the Orioles is that they will likely get a first round bye, but in terms of who wins more playoff games, I would take the Twins getting one over the Orioles (or any other cute teams, I’m looking at you Diamondbacks) getting any. What do you think? Would you rather take a talented team that under-performs, or a nice little story? Sound off in the comments!

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Byron Buxton remains out with some injury questions, and it’s unclear if or when he’ll be able to return. In his second rehab game for the Saints on Friday, Buxton left early with soreness in the patella tendon of his right knee. The team is considering him “day to day,” and while players often experience some soreness when they return after a long layoff, this news is still disconcerting given his history. The Twins figure to keep doing what they’ve been doing most of the year: Michael A. Taylor in center field (though he’s also dealing with an injury; more on that below), spelled occasionally by the likes of Willi Castro and Joey Gallo, with a number of players rotating through the DH spot. But what should fantasy managers do? If you have an open IL spot and have been carrying Buxton there, you can probably maintain the status quo, though I wouldn’t fault you for dropping him, either. It’s hard to imagine Buxton having a significant fantasy impact down the home stretch, if he’s even able to take the field. In dynasty formats, Buxton’s outlook is a bit more complicated. He signed a seven-year contract after the 2021 season, so he’s in Minnesota’s plans for the foreseeable future. However, he’ll also be 30 when the 2024 season begins, and it’s unclear if he’ll return to center field at some point or if he’s looking like more of a full-time DH. While his defensive abilities don’t matter in fantasy, position eligibility does matter. Plus, if Buxton is deemed incapable of playing center, it probably also means he won’t run as much. At his peak, Buxton is a 20-20 (or 30-30) threat, though he last had double-digit steals back in 2019. If the next phase of his career sees him hitting for power but without the steals, he becomes a lot less appealing in fantasy because a lot of players can provide home runs on their own. I’d say Buxton could still be worth a lottery ticket in dynasty leagues, though I wouldn’t invest heavily in him, and I’d feel a lot better if we saw him run a bit more. Just don’t hold your breath. Let’s now take a look at some other key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid. Twins Injury Updates Michael A. Taylor Expected return: Mid-September Taylor aggravated a hamstring injury and was placed on the injured list a day later. With Buxton still a question mark, the Taylor news is a blow to the team, though they activated Willi Castro in a corresponding move. Castro could become the top option in center field in the interim, though Gallo and Andrew Stevenson figure to also mix in. Alex Kirilloff Expected return: September Like Buxton, Kirilloff also began a rehab assignment with the Saints this past week. The team hasn’t said how long the assignment will be, but expect him back sometime this month, assuming he doesn’t suffer a setback in his recovery from a shoulder strain. Brock Stewart Expected return: September Stewart has tossed a few bullpen sessions recently and has said he’s targeting a Sept. 10 return, though that’s still up in the air. He could give the Twins a boost but his fantasy value is limited outside of leagues that count holds. Chris Paddack Expected return: Late September Paddack’s return from Tommy John surgery is maybe a little further out, though it’s encouraging that he’s being discussed for a role in the majors this season. If the righty is able to return, the Twins will likely be extremely cautious, so he probably would slot into the bullpen and be on a pitch count. Jose Miranda Expected return: TBD Miranda was recently transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day IL, and it’s unclear if he’ll play again this year. It’s been a lost season for Miranda, who started the campaign as the team’s regular third baseman and was expected to make a big impact following a promising 2022 debut. He still figures to be in the team’s plans for 2024 and beyond, though his outlook is a little less promising than it was a year ago. Stock Rising: Joe Ryan ESPN ownership: 90% Ryan has now made two starts since returning from a groin strain and he’s looked sharp. The righty has allowed just two earned runs over 11 total innings with 14 strikeouts. Before the injury began to slow him down, Ryan was quite effective, posting a 2.98 ERA across his first 15 starts of the season. If the groin issue is fully behind him, Ryan should be able to get back to his earlier form, and if that’s the case, he should be locked into fantasy lineups moving forward. Stock Falling: Jhoan Duran ESPN ownership: 46% Duran’s overall numbers look good: 2.60 ERA, 12.2 K/9 and 24 saves. However, he’s been much more pedestrian lately with a 4.20 ERA and two blown saves over his last 15 appearances. I still think he should be rostered in most fantasy formats due to his talent and role, though he’s lost a little bit of his shine in recent weeks. Prospect Spotlight: Andrew Stevenson (Minnesota) Stevenson just made his Twins debut Friday, but I’ll retroactively give him some attention as a prospect. The outfielder was outstanding for the Saints this year, batting .317 with 16 home runs and a whopping 44 stolen bases in 106 games. He projects as a depth piece for the Twins in the short term, though with Taylor out, Stevenson may be able to seize a more prominent role if he plays well. Upcoming Week Matchup Notes 3 Games at Cleveland (Lucas Giolito, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams) 3 Games vs New York Mets (Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill) The Twins play a familiar opponent in Cleveland then get the Mets for the first time this season. Giolito will be making his debut for the Guardians, and the righty has experience against the Twins from his time with the White Sox. Two-Start Starting Pitchers Pablo Lopez lines up to start Monday and Sunday. After an incredible stretch in August when he recorded three straight scoreless appearances, the righty has taken a bit of a step back, allowing eight runs in his last two starts. However, the matchups look good and Lopez has been solid overall, so he should be locked into fantasy lineups. Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch Giolito has been mostly good against the Twins, holding them to a .194 average overall. However, Max Kepler is hitting .293 against the righty and has taken him deep three times. With Giolito struggling a bit lately (6.89 ERA in six appearances for the Angels), you could definitely consider a Minnesota stack on Monday, with Kepler included. The Twins just saw Bibee, and he held them to two runs and only four hits. He’s been solid all year with a 3.03 ERA and might be worth avoiding. Williams exited a recent start against Minnesota after just one inning due to knee soreness but has been deemed healthy. He’s also been solid with a 3.46 ERA. The New York pitchers are not surprisingly less familiar to Minnesota hitters. The Twins have never seen Senga, who’s been solid in his first season in the majors after coming over from Japan, posting a 3.08 ERA and striking out 176 batters across 143 1/3 innings. I like the other two New York matchups a lot better, as both Peterson and Megill have ERAs over 5.00. Without any significant matchup histories to lean on, I’d probably just target the usual suspects for the Twins: Edouard Julien, Jorge Polanco, Royce Lewis, Max Kepler and possibly Carlos Correa, though I trust the first three more at the moment. Donovan Solano will also probably be in the lineup against the lefty Peterson and he’s batting .302 against southpaws this season. He projects as a great low-cost DFS option in that spot. What do you expect from Buxton in fantasy the rest of this year and beyond? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week.

Roles reversed in August, as the Twins saw their starters achieving more quality starts, while the previously lights-out bullpen stumbled in streaky fashion. As the boom or bust offense continued to seek its way, the pitching staff felt the pressure and mostly stepped up to the rubber with confidence. Here are the best of the best for the Twins pitching staff in August. Honorable Mention Jhoan Duran - 12 G, 2.84 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 12.2 IP, 14 H, 3 BB, 17 K Duran's August left Twins fans with a bitter taste in their mouth after poor fielding and wild pitches led to a Guardians comeback in the final game of their recent series. This wasn't the only blip on the radar for Duran. He gave up a run or more in five of his twelve appearances and took two losses in the process. Duran is still the king of the bullpen, and the go-to closer for the Twins. His ability to regain consistency around the strike zone, especially with his fastball, will be important for the playoff push. August actually was a better overall month than July for Duran, so hope is trending in the right direction for his September. August Pitchers of the Month #4. Dallas Keuchel - 4 G, 3.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 18 IP, 20 H, 6 BB, 6 K For Dallas Keuchel, simply pitching for the Twins this season was in question in July. By the end of August, he had contributed to three victories and offered some of the best pitching of the month. From his August 6th victory against the Diamondbacks to his flirtation with perfection on August 20th against the Pirates, Keuchel has shown moments of the pinpoint control and Cy Young experience that got him to this point in his career. In his start against the Phillies in Philadelphia, he didn't make it out of the second inning before six runs had crossed the plate. The closest example to what Twins fans might expect from Keuchel in September and beyond came on August 27th in the "piggy-back" game against the Rangers. He bailed out Bailey Ober and kept the Rangers scoreless until a rally could transpire. #3. Emilio Pagan - 13 G, 3.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 12 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 9 K Pagan is the only pitcher to stay on the list from July to August. The "Paganaissance" continued, as Pagan's increased usage in high-leverage situations helped the Twins gain victories with only one home run hiccup. Pagan pitched in 13 of the team's 27 games and garnered weak contact to the tune of a .189 BABIP. With others in the bullpen imploding, Pagan has consistently stepped up into the situation that the game requires, silencing critics and establishing himself as a go-to arm for the stretch run. His ERA elevated almost two full runs between July and August's performances, but the overall results remained strong. #2. Sonny Gray - 6 G, 2.04 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 39.2 IP, 27 H, 7 BB, 41 K While Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober didn't live up to their July success, Gray found a way to improve upon his. En route to a league leading ERA, Gray continued to give the Twins a chance to win day in and day out, and managed to last longer into his starts as well. Despite this individual statistical success, the Twins only went 3-3 in his six starts in August. The Twins inability to complete the victory after a Gray start has stung his resume since May, and one must question what factors support this trend given that run support and defensive metrics don't seem to support the struggles. As the only Twins pitcher in the Cy Young conversation, Gray needs to be celebrated, but he wasn't able to climb to the top spot this month which goes to... Winner: Pablo Lopez - 6 G, 2.25 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 36 IP, 37 H, 7 BB, 36 K In August, the Twins won five of Lopez's six starts, with the only loss being a quality start against the Guardians this past week. The Lopez/Gray debate is a coin flip statistically, but Lopez comes out on top in my book for looking the part of team leader and displaying less volatility between starts (especially with regard to control in the final innings of his outings). I know the "eye test" doesn't account for much in a sabermetrics world, but Lopez clearly brings less drama into a game than Gray does currently, and that attitude bleeds over into defense, offense, and managing. For these reasons, when the Twins enter Game 1 of a potential playoff series, Lopez is "The Guy," and Gray is number two. And the Twins should still go 2-0. Congratulations to Lopez for making August "Pablo Month." The Twins are going to need more of his best if they hope to seal the division title in September. What do you think? How would you rank your top Twins pitchers of August? Comment below.

Box Score Joe Ryan: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K Home Runs: Jordan Luplow (2), Christian Vázquez (5), Jorge Polanco (11) Top 3 WPA: Jordan Luplow (.356), Joe Ryan (.172), Christian Vázquez (.085) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) It was Joe Ryan vs Max Scherzer, again. The two matched up last Saturday in Minnesota, resulting in a Texas win after the Rangers jumped on the Twins bullpen in the 9th inning. It was their only win of the series. Friday was more of the same; the two starters were on their game, earning whiffs and frustrated looks from hitters as they confounded and dazzled all day. Scherzer had his vintage form. Every pitch worked. When hitters expected the fastball, he snuck in a breaker. And vice versa. The Twins pushed a runner to second base on a few separate occasions, but it never really mattered; Scherzer always clamped down on the potential rally, making hitters prefer the un-embarrassing fortress of the dugout rather than the mockery-inducing batter’s box. Ryan matched him. There’s less of a guessing game with him—you’re getting a fastball; good luck hitting it—but Rangers batters looked silly nonetheless. He diced through an elite Texas lineup, earning seven strikeouts with only three hits allowed. But, naturally, one of those hits was a homer. Corey Seager—always Corey Seager—correctly predicted one of those rising fastballs was on the way, and he blistered the offering deep into the night to give Texas a slim 1-0 lead. It was the only run Ryan allowed. He had some help from Andrew Stevenson. It was at least a little surprising that Bruce Bochy ended Scherzer’s night after just six frames. The ace to end all aces in modern times threw only 88 pitches; surely, he had more in him. (Edit: Scherzer exited with forearm tightness.)The lefty Brock Burke took the mound. He allowed a floppy single to Carlos Correa before Rocco Baldelli sent Jordan Luplow out to hit for Matt Wallner. The move worked brilliantly. Luplow took a mighty hack at a heater on the outside corner, cracking a fly ball deep into the right field bleachers that—seemingly impossibly—stayed fair. Christian Vázquez followed suit with an eerily similar shot. Yet again, as if they were fueled by Texas’ infamous bullpen, the Twins blasted another homer—this one a two-run shot by Jorge Polanco to give the team a 5-1 advantage. So, now, the onus was on Minnesota's bullpen to not screw up royally, at least in comparison to Texas' blunders. Griffin Jax didn't. Neither did Caleb Thielbar. With the weight of Ryan's excellent start, and the pressure from Cleveland's earlier victory against the Rays on his mind, Baldelli went with the overkill option, handing the ball to Jhoan Duran in a non-save situation. The stud reliever needed to get back on the horse. He certainly wasn't dominant, but he earned three clean outs, ending the game without drama or stress. Notes: Andrew Stevenson earned his first major-league hit since October 2nd, 2021. He also stole two bases. Joe Ryan has allowed two earned runs over 11 innings since coming off the IL. Jorge Polanco has homered three times in his last six games. Ryan Jeffers is 5-for-6 when pinch-hitting in 2023. Updated Standings Post-Game Interview: What's Next: The Twins and Rangers will play the second game of their series on Saturday, with first pitch coming at 6:15 P.M. A pair of lefties named after Southern cities, Dallas Keuchel and Jordan Montgomery, will face off against each other. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

Box Score Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray, 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K (81 pitches, 56 strikes, 69.1%) Home Runs: none Bottom 3 WPA: Kody Funderburk (-.459), Jhoan Duran (-.207), Carlos Correa (-.147) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Gray and Bibee dominate their opposing lineups early Neither offense was able to accomplish much during the first portion of this game, with both lineups combining for only two hits during the three opening innings. Both Sonny Gray and rookie right-hander Tanner Bibee looked dialed in right out of the gate, and this game seemed destined to be a low-scoring affair. Gray, in fact, surrendered a leadoff double to Steven Kwan on the game’s second pitch, but not only did he retire the side to finish the inning, he also actually retired 13 consecutive batters. He needed only 43 pitches to complete four innings of scoreless ball while striking out four. Not only was Gray brilliant to start this game, but he also had some stellar defense behind him, with Carlos Correa making a pair of great stops at short and Max Kepler making a beautiful sliding catch in the third: Bibee was just as brilliant, no-hitting the Twins for two innings and piling up five strikeouts through three. But his second time through the Twins lineup was anything but pleasant. Jorge Polanco jumped on the very first pitch of the fourth for a leadoff double, and Correa, Kepler, and Royce Lewis, despite not reaching or moving up Polanco, managed to drive Bibee’s pitch count up. It took the Cleveland righty 21 pitches to retire the trio. Twins take advantage of their first big opportunity The quality of the at-bats didn’t change for Minnesota in the fifth, and the Twins created their first big offensive moment of the game. Matt Wallner drew a four-pitch walk to lead off the inning, and after Ryan Jeffers struck out on a seven-pitch at-bat, Donovan Solano singled to left on the first pitch he saw. Bibee struck out Jordan Luplow next, but not before throwing six pitches. Then, with Édouard Julien at the plate, he struggled with his command once more, giving up a bases-loading walk to the Twins rookie. That brought Polanco to the plate, and he lined a short single to center to drive in Wallner and Solano. Gray departs earlier than expected After throwing only seven pitches to get through the sixth, Gray’s pitch count was merely at 62. He looked poised to go deeper in this game than he’s gone in any other start this season, perhaps even shooting for his first complete game since 2015. But oddly enough, he struggled a bit during the seventh, and that ended up being his final inning of the game. His command seemed a little off to begin the seventh, causing him to give up a leadoff walk to Kole Calhoun – his first and only walk of the afternoon. He took some time to apparently remove one of his cleats, and when Ramón Laureano stepped up to the plate next, Gray's command looked even worse. He nearly plunked Laureano in the helmet and threw a wild (I mean wild!) pitch, allowing Calhoun to steal second. Fortunately, Gray was able to settle in and retire the next three batters to finish the seventh, but he was promptly removed from the game after that, even though his pitch count was still at only 81. Gray was able to deliver another excellent start, even though it was apparently cut short. This is the first time he has thrown seven innings or more in back-to-back starts since July 12, 2019, and his season ERA is now down to 2.94. It is shocking that ESPN currently doesn’t include him on their “Cy Young Predictor” top 10 rankings. Bullpen gives up the lead, game goes to extras Things did not look promising when the bullpen took over in the eighth. Griffin Jax gave up a leadoff double to Gabriel Arias, and despite retiring the next two batters, he was replaced by Caleb Thielbar before he could get the final out. With an inherited runner on third, Thielbar gave up a single to Kwan, and Cleveland got on the board. Then, when José Ramírez drew a walk, things got really scary, but Caleb managed to induce the forceout to end the threat. Jhoan Durán came in to get the save, but things didn’t go smoothly for him either. After a quick first out, the Twins’ star closer gave up a walk and a single. Both runners moved up on a groundout by Arias, but Durán was still one out away from ending the game. With Bo Naylor at the plate, Durán struggled mightly and needing only one strike to finish Naylor off, he threw a wild pitch that went behind him, allowing Andrés Giménez to score the tying run. Cleveland rally is complete in the 10th With the game on the line, Emilio Pagan and his 10.50 ERA in high leverage took the mound to pitch the top of the 10th. But despite his poor recent performances in high leverage, he had no trouble getting two outs on seven pitches. Before he could record the final out, though, an intentional walk was given to Ramírez, and Pagán was pulled, with Kody Funderburk being brought in to try to end the inning. But the plan went horribly wrong. The rookie was all over the place, throwing three balls nowhere near the strike zone. The only pitch he threw for a strike was obliterated by Calhoun for a soul-crushing three-run home run. The offense went down in order in the bottom of the 10th, and the Guardians’ season survives. Postgame interview What’s Next? The Twins have a day off on Thursday before they kick off a three-game set against the Rangers in Arlington over the weekend. Game one of the series is scheduled for Friday at 7:05 pm CDT, and Joe Ryan (9-8, 4.33 ERA) takes the mound for Minnesota, making his second start since returning from the Injured List. Max Scherzer (12-5, 3.71 ERA) is expected to start the game for Texas. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Durán 12 9 0 0 20 41 Pagán 14 11 0 14 0 39 Thielbar 10 11 0 0 16 37 Jax 28 0 0 0 8 36 Funderburk 0 0 28 0 8 36 Floro 12 19 0 0 0 31 Sands 0 0 0 24 0 24 Winder 0 0 24 0 0 24